Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[Isis]

I also tr Coral; have a blank for absinthe.

Last time I played with fferyl she was kind of blank to me and I just read her predecessor because she was a replacement.
It's scum indicative that shes not making more of an impression.

tbf she is V/LA right now and I think there's an inclination to bias yourself toward townread someone if they're actually present and saying stuff like Coral is, but my reread of her ISO didn't give me a whole lot.

I had the same reads EoD1 when absinthe was active. Actually if I think about it my EoD1 read for the slots that eventually got to keep would be "idk but maybe catboi town?" and that's similar too.

The biggest change d2 for me is cooling a lot on demona's slot, liking Chara more by comparison and figuring out some less paranoid basises for why it picked wall the way it did.

If I decide to play with a little less ego and sheep Coral more I'd rather keep believing I can read Chara rather that squeeze a townread of you I can't seem to articulate well.

[Isis]

It might snow too much for me to go see my partner

[Isis]

The biggest change d2 for me is cooling a lot on demona's slot, liking Chara more by comparison and figuring out some less paranoid basises for why it picked wall the way it did.

On day one, you suggested that chara can read you quite well, but if you're town it's reading you wrong and that doesn't seem to bother you or make you feel suspicious towards it at all?

It bothers me and it's a significant negative. It can be "one of those games" but there's advantage to scum!Chara staticcing the read.

It hasn't really reissued a verdict on a bunch of day2 play until now.

[Isis]

Herta are you scum

[Isis]

*hadn't

[Isis]

I probably would have to be annoyed at progression more than I can actually subscribe to "read correctly or r scum"
That's not that reliable in mafia.

[Isis]

Chara!scum seems like the only case where this minigame can be win
Chara deciding me wrong for game would make me big sad

[Isis]

though, have i been able to correctly read you as town before, Isis? the only game i can clearly remember is the one you pointed to where you were scum.

You have not! You saw me play town when you were scum one time.
It is hard to expect you would have a broken clock scumread manner of reading me, I just figure since you like me and usually don't misunderstand my play methods of anything you probably have a centered calibration. But not data based.

[Isis]

i don't have much new to say, but... Isis, what are these less paranoid ideas for why i picked Wall how i did? i know we talked about it but given Herta hasn't done much readable to me yet while catching up, we may as well chat if you're up for it.

quoting this as well so you see it.

Less paranoid is, the reason you gave, pumping your own Joy Value, getting EV off of reading me. More paranoid was placating me, or not realizing at first that a townie asking you on a third wheel date gets you 2/3rds of the way to setting up a no-swap-neccaary hood but acknowledging the offer and accepting it later when that sunk in. Or thinking you could get buy-in on mislimming me after I talked you up.

[Isis]

You have not! You saw me play town when you were scum one time.
It is hard to expect you would have a broken clock scumread manner of reading me, I just figure since you like me and usually don't misunderstand my play methods of anything you probably have a centered calibration. But not data based.

makes sense. i

would

say confidently that my calibration as you put it is properly balanced... at least in my own view. what i am wondering is why my misread of you in this case is a reason for you to think i'm scum, rather than simply wrong. you also had me as scum by default (due to demona town), which put us in similar situations to each other at the start of day 2, barring of course that i had the independent scumread as well.

also: was that scumgame of mine Silent Star, or something else?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86100
I investigated you for the win in a past game, that was the other side of the coin of wanting to play a game with you

[Isis]

i wanted colon bracket why does the forum constructed a smiley gr

[Isis]

I think being unwilling to believe you got it wrong this once is the less rational part of me. Zooming and taking a breath I should acknowledge that misreading me in a 3p is part of the universes.

[Isis]

do you want to talk about the Keep? i'm curious as to your thoughts on skitter/kitty/Math. particularly given catboi has expressed a willingness to vote skitter, while Math and skitter are currently scumreading each other.

catboi was a strong favorite before and still a soft favorite now but I don't like the way he's interacting with Coral.
skitter is having a hedgey game of lightweight thoughts, I don't know if that's just how she plays but I feel worried that the structure of the minigame is a great reason for her to find a million hedged thoughts about the game. I don't want to impose my read of skitter on other people X.X
I've surprisingly never played with Math and am not used to how he does mafia. His predecessor kind of did a mix of making me feel like she was breaking even her own range but had some day 1 play I didn't really like, which might be less WIFOMed to think about than the rock flinging season.
I would say catboi>MathBlade>skitter but all of those triangles are way softer than my solve of Barracks or Gate or whichever AoE2 structure the other minigame is named after that has Coral in it.

[Isis]

v/la

Back 27th for serious

[Isis]

Read over the last few pages.
I don't think Math's barometer on Chara's decisiveness is accurate for Chara, but it looks like a sorting effort, I don't really follow skitter's "wrong therefore scum assessment".
I'm uncomfortable with skitter's posting about being voted. Yes technically it's optimal no matter what, but there's different manners of acknowledging that. It's more like she's putting forth a proposition and insisting everyone accept that proposition or reject it rather than mentioning she'd like to be voted every time she remembers little things she townreads about her primary keep scumread.

[Isis]

I'm really starting to doubt math is town here. I don't think he's solving, i think he's decided it's convenient to call me scummy and is now appealing to others to try to justify it, and isnt really doing much else. He's saying it's to solve the other two games but imo he hasnt really sone much to solve either

Like i couldnt tell you who he thinks is scum in either of the other two, can anyone else ?

And from my pov:
- it's strictly optimal to vote me, esp. if i'm unconfidant in either of the other two
-> i understand why people think this is scummy but for me to be scum here i decided to swap myself into keep (with two players i don't know how to read) and decide my best strategy is to just insist that the other two vote me, and keep insisting that through a replacement
- which is just, like, why ? .there's many easier ways to win a minigame than for scum-me to pick this fight
- and idk why i'm still bugging math, i should be buddying him here if i'm scum, not continuing to anatgonize him

I don't think it's normal to plan that far ahead wrt swapping and then how the minigame is played

[Isis]

I think we see the same reasoning and reach a different conclusion.

I think town!Skitter would want me to vote her. I think her approach isn’t going to make me vote her. I think that’s because she’s not town skitter so she’s not taking a town approach

As scum, her primary and arguably only goal would be to get voted. She would be informed of your alignment, and know that making you not want to vote her is directly counter to her primary goal and gains her very little.

As town, her goals are both to find scum, and to convince the other town in the Keep to vote her. If she is uninformed of your alignment, then her main approach to you will be with the goal of sorting you, not appeasing you. If she thinks you're more likely to be scum, then you aren't voting for her anyway, so you voting her isn't even a concern, and her goal shifts instead to demonstrating to catboi (and others) why you're scum.

Her approach towards you is 100% more of a town approach than a scum approach because it is uninformed of your alignment, it fits with a town mindset of wanting to sort you rather than appease you, and it hurts what her goals would be as scum.

I think it's like kinda logically sound to say abrasion in Keep is towny but you have to analyze whether it would have happened regardless of alignment. I think a lot of playsthles are going to clash regardless of alignment.
Uncharacteristic abrasiveness would be towny yes. The only slot that has seemed uncharacteristically abrasive is like, catboi, but that was to you and you're not in keep.

[Isis]

Denying me reads (or spew if you think I am scum) is anti town.

Keeping focus on my game seems rather pointless.

If you and I are both town you’ll either have to break and vote me or catboi scum has to vote one of us and we hammer.

- who's denying you reads exactly?
- well i'm not going to break so. It'll have to be you or catboi

I'm really starting to doubt math is town here. I don't think he's solving, i think he's decided it's convenient to call me scummy and is now appealing to others to try to justify it, and isnt really doing much else. He's saying it's to solve the other two games but imo he hasnt really sone much to solve either

Like i couldnt tell you who he thinks is scum in either of the other two, can anyone else ?

And from my pov:
- it's strictly optimal to vote me, esp. if i'm unconfidant in either of the other two
-> i understand why people think this is scummy but for me to be scum here i decided to swap myself into keep (with two players i don't know how to read) and decide my best strategy is to just insist that the other two vote me, and keep insisting that through a replacement
- which is just, like, why ? .there's many easier ways to win a minigame than for scum-me to pick this fight
- and idk why i'm still bugging math, i should be buddying him here if i'm scum, not continuing to anatgonize him

I don't think it's normal to plan that far ahead wrt swapping and then how the minigame is played

You think scum wouldn't have planned for the swap and the later minigame? I think that's all they wouod be doing day1

I mean the way you wrote the post is "would I execute <master plan>" and master plan even includes a repout as part of the narrative. Yes that's an outlandish amount of planning.

[Isis]

To give every question and answer I think if I played this as scum I'd just yolo instead of calculating all the minigame arrangements far in advance, it'd make a big mindset divergence to get some slightly better minigames if I did a bunch of age of empires spreadsheets. I know your scum approach to this setup would be different, just not prescient

[Isis]

Flipppp

Tempest make decrees!

Intuitively it makes sense to me to flip Gate first but I don't know if anyone has specific associative theories they want to test. Gate could surprise me and a surprise is a high value. None of the three Gate flips would surprise me and then I would probably lobby for the same elimination in Keep regardless. I think at least a couple other people might feel that way too

[Isis]

and if it’s scum Coral we are in a world of hurt because then almost no one else has posted any reads of note

I lold

[Isis]

maybe they're just hoping they can fight hard to win both of those.

The scumteam can be
all people who repped out and are now politely finishing the game, or sometimes not doing so. If so then appreciation to math for sportsmanship and tia to Aisa for playing out.
More likely though trying to model the entire scumteam's WIM or the outs they're playing is perilous and a lot harder than solving one more time and winning.

If that whole post is a Jacobellis trick to invite us to reevaluate you and flex if we don't then epicc

I can't take the invitation when absinthe is just complaining about a slump

[Isis]

If absinthe is town I dont have the snow shovels or the familiarity with her style to ever

[Isis]

Isis is really any more or less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here

you take it back


Isis is less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here

[Isis]

nonjokingly I think you're correctly pointing out how stacked the lobby is

I remember one time in the Death List open micro I had to make a suboptimal mechanical play because everyone in the lobby except MariaR was so casual and disinterested in mech that MariaR would probably immediately know I was scum if I made the optimal mechanical play

if you add 7 MariaRs like here then you just stop reading the mech actions that way tho

[Isis]

Hectic is smart but I had already mislimmed him I mislimmed Hectic do you know how badass you have to be to mislim Hectic as scum it's almost impossible

[Isis]

I'm dosa tresa cuatra and cinca

[Isis]

Better than skitter's, worse than catboi's unless catboi's wraps all the way round to acknowledging the dynamic too little and it's calculated to make me say so.

[Isis]

If a keep or gate player makes another post without resolving a game I'm gonna vote and it's gonna be so unfair to the new repin

[Isis]

Coral's reads being wrong at keep is something but I probably still want absinthe flipped. This is why the other order would have been better but no one listens to me. But voting absinthe is game

[Isis]

Gg

[Isis]

Happy new yearrr

[Isis]

Post of the year