Mini 2320: Smuggler's Port II [Endgame]

[Celebloki]

Hello fellow merchants!

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[Celebloki]

Can I interest anyone is my fine artisanal wheat, fine linens, or purest copper ingots?

[Celebloki]

It seems reasonable, but there is a chance (albeit very small) that this could result in scum finding out who the daughter is. Specifically if say everyone happens to choose Linen and the Port Authority also chooses Linen. Only the Tomboy Daughter and maybe scum depending on where they selected will be off the list.

[Celebloki]

...

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this is the most likely scenario, and more specifically that there would be 1 scum on the shipment. I feel like the smugglers would basically have to split across linen/copper. Choosing one or hiding on wheat means potentially clearing everyone that chooses whichever one they don't choose. And assuming the merchants are split decently enough, they still have the task of guessing the TD from a decent pool.

[Celebloki]

Smugglers are notoriously bad at math, 26 was clearly a ploy to confuse them.

[Celebloki]

Ahoy, what are your opinions on tea?

[Celebloki]

I think I like this newer plan better, it forces better odds. While the initial plan is still a longshot to out the TD, this one makes it at worst 1/3 I think. Assuming the PA inspects a shipment with no Tea, it gives the Scum a pool of 4 that the TD can be in, they can guess one as the PA and if are right they have a 1/3 to find the TD at that point. 1/4 if they don't guess the PA right. Then this plan also has the benefit of outing a Smuggler if they are on the inspected shipment or their name doesn't appear on the right shipment.

Does this seem reasonable?

[Celebloki]

PA inspecting the shipment they (would be) on outs them. PA picks the set that doesn't have them or the TD in it. If they happen to be on the same shipment as the TD, they can just pick one of the other two.

[Celebloki]

You're saying the worry is that we might end up wagoning and elimming the TD D1, so is it better to not chance that D1?

Personally I'm inclined to say we still vote someone out D1.

[Celebloki]

If we are going to go with Kyouko's second plan, I want a very explicit and clear post made by someone pre-hammer pointing out the shipments and who should be on them. I just know we're gonna get someone claiming to not have understood the assignment D2.

@Mod:

I assume people have to send a shipment, and the someone not sending in an action (afk) results in prods or something?

[Celebloki]

pedit: mechanically I've shot my shot and if we don't flip tea there are better scumhunters in the lobby than me

Thing is that I presume you're widely town read at this point, so if your group is investigated and shows tea, that reduces the smuggler pool to 2 instead of 3.

That's the thing though, we kinda have to lim her now since she can be PoEed by scum. We don't want anyone else making any similar claims because we just narrow the pool. If we lim her she's not in one of the pools.

[Celebloki]

@Kyouko, would you also agree then if on D2 the shipment only contains 2 people, we lim whoever is missing and leach the remaining 2 to copper and linen and proceed?

[Celebloki]

leash*

[Celebloki]

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

[Celebloki]

I want me some non-repudiation.

[Celebloki]

We kinda have to get rid of Kyouko though (sorry Kyouko).

For the sake of argument say we lim Atsi (Kyouko takes their place on Linen) and they were not a smuggler, then D2 comes along and Copper was investigated with no tea. The smugglers now know the PA and TD are somewhere in Linen and Wheat. They know who themselves are, and they can be reasonably assured Kyouko is also not a PR. That leaves 3 people to guess the TD and PA from. They can then guess one of them as the PA, if they happen to get it right, they have a 50/50 on knowing who the TD is. If we lim Kyouko, we remove that 'known' slot and give the Smugglers worse odds to guess from.

[Celebloki]

Only Hu hasn't confirmed what they are shipping, Cakez also said 2 things, but I assume he knows he should do Copper.

[Celebloki]

I get the impression that Hu Tao hasn't really read any of the mech talk that's been done.

[Celebloki]

I was wanting people to explicitly post what they were shipping based on Kyouko's post so there was no confusion.

[Celebloki]

I'm still like 90% on board to follow the plan, but maybe this is just as easy as yeeting Hu Tao now and making the other smuggler guess the TD D1.

[Celebloki]

Sorry, been V/LA-ish all weekend. I tend to not get much chance to post over weekends. I really oughta put a statement in my sig not to expect much Sat/Sun.

At this point I think Hu agrees enough and if it does happen that she deviates and it becomes evident from whatever is inspected then she'd become tomorrow's elim anyway. I still think it's probably best to follow the plan to elim Kyouko.

VOTE: Kyouko

[Celebloki]

At this point I don't intend on really trying to illicit responses or look for associations. I agree with and want to go along with Kyouko's plan which hinges on not giving Smugglers more information about who the TD or PA are. Delaying the day and smuggler hunting just gives more time for the smugglers to sus it out.

Hu Tao was a deviation because she was refusing to be explicit about her shipment which was something I was requesting. In the end I realized it didn't really matter if one person refuses, if she doesn't follow the plan and it becomes obvious from the inspection she just hurts herself and if she's a merchant that doesn't follow the plan, she's throwing. Everyone else went along with it, so the plan still works.

If we follow the plan we are nearly guaranteed to hit a smuggler tomorrow and make them guess.

[Celebloki]

I meant 'elicit'.

[Celebloki]

welp, gg all

[Celebloki]

@Mod, Was Wheat or Linen inspected last night?

Mod's post says Wheat was inspected, you all were Linen. I assume this was a mod mistake...

[Celebloki]

@Mod, Thanks!

VOTE: HighPrincessErinys

I'm shipping Wheat

[Celebloki]

I re-read it, seems right. First person back votes someone on the shipment, then leashes the other 2 to a shipment. Everyone else goes the third shipment.

Tomorrow we'll either have a cleared shipment, or one with Tea or Empty, know who the lim at that point.

[Celebloki]

No we do rush, we follow Kyouko's plan which was to speedlim today. Taking time gives Smugglers time to figure out PA and TD.

[Celebloki]

VOTE: HighPrincessErinys
I will ship

Linen

.
Claptastik ships

Copper

.

Everyone else

ships

Wheat

.

PA

checks either

Linen

or

Copper

.

We are guaranteed to catch scum if everyone follows this strat. Any deviation from this strat should be considered a scumclaim.

[Celebloki]

You ship Wheat.

[Celebloki]

VOTE: atsi

We probably coulda played it more traditionally, but after Kyouko did all the mech solving she outed herself as a Merchant pretty obviously. We probably coulda gambled on just voting atsi since he had some much D1 shade. But the Mech talk kinda put the game on rails imo.

[Celebloki]

I don't really fault the mod for the town strategy that turned it into an RNG game rather than a deduction game lol.

[Celebloki]

gg everyone! I hope that was still fun for the Smugglers, I was worried the railroady-ness of it may have kill it for you.

I also realized I should have not been so gung ho for the plan, I was probably also a pretty obvious Merchant.

[Celebloki]

I guessed Hu Tao as the Tomboy Daughter lol. I didn't think it was likely necessarily, but I thought she just might be crazy enough to draw ire from town on purpose to throw the smugglers off her scent lol.