Open 900: 7p Wilson [Endgame]

[Psyche]

i am formally opting out of RVS

[Psyche]

I think black is town!

[Psyche]

I think black is town!

Why

at this time i don't wanna say

[Psyche]

all other posts have been nai

VOTE: save the dragons

[Psyche]

i know yall are joking. but is gambler’s fallacy to treat role allocations across games like they aren’t statistically independent when you observe streaks in outcomes.

[Psyche]

they've yet to even post

[Psyche]

they've yet to even post

Do you think StD is scum because he hasn't posted yet?

yes. i am approximately 183% sure.

[Psyche]

and now i have nothing

[Psyche]

my black read is serious
std read a stretch, but based on flawed hunch about alliance and activity levels that i remain attached to despite some clear evidence against it

[Psyche]

in advance: the black read is serious but it’s based on like one post so let’s all chill about it

[Psyche]

yeah!

[Psyche]

std in particular because he’s oldd/experienced and had already confirmed. btw “hi” is pretty light. i see through you std

[Psyche]

it means more wisdom on the topic of saying little! maybe!

[Psyche]

somebody do something he’s making fun of me

[Psyche]

These Psyche reads feel like a stretch but I'm not sure they're scum motivated

what would be the scum motivation

[Psyche]

oh right
well the std read is only a little real
the black one though im pretty impressed w myself about it

[Psyche]

if std is town why won’t he discuss his reads with us? i’ll tell you why. he’s a sadist. or he’s not town. and opportunistically lazy. and a sadist.

Why are you being so secretive about your read on me though? We know it's based on 10. You're right about me but I don't see why scum couldn't post that

i find it kind of wasteful to talk too much about townreads. i’m supposed to be looking for scum, right? if i get everyone thinking ur town (best case scenario) then you get NKed or something and i lose my townread. i’d prefer you be medium suspected until the moment of truth where it’s between you and actual scum and i use my verbal kung fu to save you from certain death and town from certain defeat. the crowd will go wild and i’ll finally feel worthy of my mother’s love again.

[Psyche]

VOTE: dr drew

this is better than my std vote bc an actual inquisitive person reads the thread, especially posts concerning the subject of their curiosity. that drew has not implies his question could have been performative, posed not in search of knowledge but of positive repute!

or he missed the post or something

[Psyche]

it’s ok. everyone knows you’re town by now anyway. pls vote for drew w me. he deserves it.

[Psyche]

i…i liked the way you counted your odds of landing a vote on scum, okay?

[Psyche]

im sry to confuse you. u deserve to have a good time

[Psyche]

this is great. i have a town read, a scum read, and a nemesis all by page 4.

[Psyche]

i…i liked the way you counted your odds of landing a vote on scum, okay?

I thought this might be what you were thinking, but yeah thats really weak. I... don't think scum could possibly be confused enough to try to give the odds of someone being town from a scum PoV because the concept makes no sense from the PoV of someone who already knows. :?

i disagree!

[Psyche]

yes

[Psyche]

sorry i don't recall that game
are you peregrinev?

[Psyche]

i…i liked the way you counted your odds of landing a vote on scum, okay?

I thought this might be what you were thinking, but yeah thats really weak. I... don't think scum could possibly be confused enough to try to give the odds of someone being town from a scum PoV because the concept makes no sense from the PoV of someone who already knows. :?

to be clear, the rationale is that i don't think scum would bother to add that detail, not that i think they'd get the odds incorrect

[Psyche]

ok but more importantly i don't think doctor drew is even a real doctor

[Psyche]

it'd be some other comment

[Psyche]

who's best chance of being scum so far for you

[Psyche]

i think the two are in drew, std, aureal

[Psyche]

i wish we could all be friends
drew may not be a doctor but he do be a homie

[Psyche]

i feel like i should have a better read of aureal after all this but i don't. shame on me and my weakness

[Psyche]

uhhh
what now?
i guess i should try harder to choose between drew and alianna
std's coasting act is likely guaranteed to get him through D1 right

[Psyche]

i like 154, makes my readlist feel more dubious
maybe there's a thing i vaguely dislike about aureal's approach and i may be mistaking this feeling w/ a scumread
i want to say her style feels kind of academic -- not sure if that's the word I'm looking for but it's close
like aureal is systematically uncomfortable w the assertion of reads based on light evidence
this is fine on its own but there's a prescriptive vibe to it: she's a little miffed that we don't operate the same way
the steady way she uses her vote makes this seem genuine rather than like she's following a nitpicking strategy for generating content w/o sincere interest in scumhunting

[Psyche]

i need to do double line breaks if I'm not going to use punctuation

[Psyche]

dont quite townload aureal; mainly prefer drew atm

[Psyche]

"i should do a re-read" is something i always say before i borderline flake. what should i do instead of attempting a re-read? something more purposive but still constructive

[Psyche]

ooh i have an idea ok ok ok give me while

[Psyche]

i find it kind of wasteful to talk too much about townreads. i’m supposed to be looking for scum, right? if i get everyone thinking ur town (best case scenario) then you get NKed or something and i lose my townread. i’d prefer you be medium suspected until the moment of truth where it’s between you and actual scum and i use my verbal kung fu to save you from certain death and town from certain defeat. the crowd will go wild and i’ll finally feel worthy of my mother’s love again.

did i foresee my fate? why do you people keep townreading me

[Psyche]

wow im a little impressed with myself
but since im alive i have to suspect that im wrong about the game in some way

[Psyche]

would scum black hammer drew? hard to see it

by the way rules don't seem to mention what happens if deadline is reached w/o a hammer

[Psyche]

(technically doesn't mention that players are limmed by hammers either but)

[Psyche]

ok doing a reread for real now

[Psyche]

not going to present a polished readslist or anything; am about halfway through
i have renewed confidence in my black read and renewed suspicion of aureal. i also wish STD would do something...
priority is reminding myself why i started to change my mind about aureal later and forming a clear opinion about this so-called tired person.
i also want to compare margot and my readslists. is tradition to call this it a bad idea but i tend to enjoy trying to guess why someone was NK'd

[Psyche]

aw forgot the line breaks again

[Psyche]

ok now i recall that the stuff impacting my aureal read was #154 and the stuff around it. mmmmm yeah i guess i do still buy aureal as town. it's maybe bad to post this now but i don't see my attitude changing after re-evaluating the read and deciding it's still a good one. i'll go into more depth on aureal soonish. my re-read is being interrupted by the invisible hand.

[Psyche]

i guess i'm trying to reconcile "Aureal's town based on meta that tired person doesn't know" with "tired person is scum for going aureal" tho

i've probably over simplified it

who is the subject of this post?

[Psyche]

ok i've re-read everything. in a way i can imagine anyone being scum but in the end i do have reads i intend to stick to.

was suspicious of aureal all over again up to her post #154. there's this pattern of hypercriticism that didn't really look like scumhunting to me -- like it was pointing out issues in people's reasoning just to point them out rather than to express doubt about or probe alliance mindset. but i think #154 had merit and did a good job of presenting real challenges to black that she might have failed as scum. i also agree with black that the stuff about black's activity levels seemed sincerely paranoid in a way scum might not think to fake. aureal's 303/304 pushing drew seems to clinch my townread of her. if she's scum she did a great job committing to the bus i guess but i think i have enough separate from that to confirm the read.

if i were scum-black near deadline i would've tried to force a no lim (by way of disappearing) or a tired lim rather than bus my teammate drew. but i guess i could say that about everyone who ended up on drew. still, me and black are different people. at any rate, i can townread black based on several chains of posts across d1, maybe most notably #52-57 and #156-157. i'd be surprised if anyone told me that these posts are NAI or scummy to them, and then i'd go into more detail about them. not gonna bother now.

#267/#283 is waffly about drew. but personally i was waffly about drew -- and inadvertently coped by being kind of flakey. still, i don't and didn't find these posts very convincing; the idea that wagons need to be controversial/resisted just doesn't strike me as super intuitive. think i decide these posts are NAI for me in the end, but luckily i have the other posts to focus on which still provide a convinced townread.

this as a town bloc would be sufficient to solve the game. but in case people end up wavering on black i'll try to get serious about the hard ones

[Psyche]

aw man i totally misread std's drew vote. i might have to rewrite the whole draft.

[Psyche]

wait why don't i just skip the wallpost and hammer him right now

[Psyche]

well ill share the stuff i have on TP

#209/#211/#244 tp's reads here around aureal match the gist of mine but go in another direction, missing the value in #154.

On the other hand, it's hard to accept the characterization in #218 of black/drew as so chaotic that they cannot be read w/o association tells. I simply struggle to imagine how someone might come to feel that way. Feel like "mild" is the wrong descriptor for STD's playstyle too.

The response to black's #157 justification for dropping suspicion of aureal feels a bit rigid; there's not much engagement with the substance of black's shift. "if anything you should be pressuring harder" is kind of tone deaf wrt to how black read the content.

#245 that takes a sentiment as specific as "i think black and aureal are almost never both town" and explains it as "a gut feeling" is also...not relatable at all? so i'm also inclined to find it unbelievable.

the other stuff in 245 is maybe stubborn enough to be town. tp sees black disagree with her about aureal and assumes it's more likely that black is scum than that her aureal case is uncompelling. i'm a little convinced that TP genuinely believes scum-aureal is

obvious

when i read this post. but 288 (replying to black's 247, which also reads as pretty towny) tersely drops this "you might be scum for not agreeing with me" attitude and seems to implicitly believe black's decision was based in reasoning rather than win condition. so i'm inclined not to read too much into 245.

"i am not going to magically change my reasons for scumreading aureal" in 289 also seems off-base? It doesn't take magic to change the content of a read; it just takes convincing. And TP again doesn't seem to engage meaningfully with the meta information that black shares about aureal. Rather than try to understand what black is conveying by either inquiring further or searching out exemplary games, TP just says "nuh uh" again -- to someone I believe by this point she implicitly townreads. This seems to establish a pattern of incuriousness that I'd be inclined to scumread.

#291 where TP identifies drew as a good lim option does look like town though. just seems so fluid for an act of distancing, and ultimately builds momentum for drew as a consensus lim. but TP keeps her vote on aureal in this post, and only in #307 is the vote moved -- not to drew but to std, apparently just because std voted for TP, so basically an OMGUS vote. Still, the vote moved to drew immediately afterward in #308 -- after reading black's alert that deadline was near. So I can't interpret much of that either.

The brash style of many of these posts looks town to me but the content is almost hard to imagine as coming from a real person. What an interesting person I guess.

[Psyche]

wait why don't i just skip the wallpost and hammer him right now

Please don't

ok but answer the question why not std

[Psyche]

meh i see the explanation in your iso

[Psyche]

std has somewhat more to his iso than i first thought. #258 is arguably his most substantial observation (i think it's about black?) and maybe does read as town to me, but just vaguely.

initially thought that std never really justified his vote on drew, which pinged me as town. but context suggests std voted drew because of drew's justification for voting std. i have this idea that scum on some level might want to make sure they get credit for voting their buddies. there's some performativity in std's vote but overall the interaction is pretty bare so idk. i can't decide if distancing is happening here the way i might have if the drew vote had come out of nowhere. how annoying

the shift to tired person on the other hand does look bad for std, and i don't agree that it didn't help save drew. but it's mostly only a bad look relationally; tp wasn't a bad choice at that point. my main beef really is the justification with black's idea that wagons need to be controversial/resisted -- like i said before, it just doesn't seem super compelling to me. and besides, the drew wagon was ultimately plenty resisted, and only succeeded a couple hours before deadline. i do know of mafia plays to use this kind of reasoning though, so i'm unsure how much to hold it against him.

in all, though, it's just an awfully inconvenient moment to follow someone's meh reasoning about gamestate as justification to shift from someone you were perfectly willing to vote for on a reads basis a page or so ago (and who turned out to be scum)...to a different user that you've never really expressed anything close to a read about. the only caveat i can muster about this is that it's almost too straightforward a mistake to expect of an experienced player.

[Psyche]

am certainly ambivalent, but games are more fun when you don't sit on the fence

VOTE: tired person

[Psyche]

oh wait i gotta look at margot too

[Psyche]

ok margot is just an easy townread who didn't have any clear reads
also waffled plenty on drew

[Psyche]

it sounds like you have clarity

[Psyche]

ok!

UNVOTE:

[Psyche]

this was true yesterday. what changed your mind?

[Psyche]

whew i am boreddd

[Psyche]

if it doesn't matter, and i don't think it does, i'm gonna VOTE: STD. at best guy is a freeloader. if everyone played mafia like this, nothing would happen and there'd be no point anyway.

[Psyche]

Yeah

Did you ever get your idea going? Never found out what that was :(

some other game

[Psyche]

save yourself, hammer std

[Psyche]

think case on std is stronger
there are town-telling posts in tp's iso
can't really say the same of std
aureal's stance on std seems to just that this is his meta
but that's seems to imply NAI, insufficient basis for a townread, which is what she rather confidently expresses in 356

[Psyche]

the prospect of being wrong terrifies me
but like whatever it's a game whatever

whatever

[Psyche]

i was right :*(

[Psyche]

would it be okay to rant a little? it would probably be rude right? i'll just shush

[Psyche]

nono no my rant has broader scope

You're actually saying you had any sort of read on a slot that took half a day to say hi?

yeah!

[Psyche]

black u wanna switch to std and if u scum we 1v1 day 3? or u wanna 1v1 now?

save yourself, hammer std

[Psyche]

Tbf I highly doubt StD's late entrance had anything to do with his alignment

You seem more desperate to survive

[Psyche]

Somehow I'm not even surprised people are voting Dragons

ok im done. im not mad or being childish at all. im a big boy

[Psyche]

i think the late entrance and the rest of his play was entirely consistent w the common strategy of "never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake"

[Psyche]

the relational tell was there. std's vote around you was performative, borderline OMGUS from a slot experienced enough to know better, and literally the only instance of him supposedly trying to sort in his entire iso. and then he dropped the vote when you were up to be limmed based on hazy rationale about the overall gamestate.
posting about these things in a sequence of wall posts was my mistake