Open 913 - This Game Started as an April Fools' Joke - Postgame

[imaginality]

yh we claim votes tomorrow and not claiming/fakeclaiming is a policy lim

sounds good to me

There's good reason to try to over-hammer in the nights as that will prevent scum from changing the lim target compared to if we end up with wagons of say 7 v 6 and scum switch from who they've promised to vote. Having extra votes on the main wagon will weaken the ability to perform vote count analysis but I think that is pretty borked in this game anyhow.

We could just vote like normal during Night and I can try to do unofficial vote counts or something

yeah, exactly

Would be nice if whenever people 'vote' they provide an update themselves rather than one person doing all the work.

i think votes give us things to talk about in the night. we are stuck here for seven days.

100% agree votes are like, the driving force behind d1 discussion in like p much every game i've been in. it's why i'm so curious what would happen without votes. would bandwagoning still exist but just with like opinions being shared rather than clear cut votes? how would discussion evolve? hell how would it start when a random voting stage has no voting?

like these are all rly cool questions imo that i would love to learn the answer to, but also it is objectively suboptimal to not just use the usual voting system so i'm not gonna fight it too hard if people wanna do the votes it does make more sense.

I agree. In this set up pseudovotes are like democracy, the worst form government aside from all the alternatives.

[imaginality]

experience black awesomeming halfasleep towns.

I'm kind of perturbed that you implied you didn't have many reads in 112, but developed these reads after 3/4 people on this list just said they were leaning town on you

Why is halfasleep town?

Spoiler:

No no no! Not a good idea.

If I'm a vig, I'm shooting Moros
Goodnight

good idea.

this feels like towny reaction

Moros is giving me gut town pings as well. I think I could be slightly biased due to him agreeing with me about not having reads though

Been mostly awol this weekend but catching up now and I like this post, because this seems like a reason for suspecting someone which holds up in this format of game.

[imaginality]

huh, i had to read her post a few times here to figure out what the point was but i think i got it now

she's saying it's suspicious for Moros to go from no reads to multiple townreads 12 hours later, after most of the people Moros townreads had said they townread Moros

this feels a little on the nose to be a scum tactic to me though

like do scum really just go "ok 3 people townread me so i'm gonna go townread them all back"

I think it can definitely be the case that scum 'reward' players for reading them correctly. Source: I've noticed myself doing that as scum on multiple occasions.

Maybe there's a term for this behaviour - I don't think it's the same as buddying which I see as more a conscious tactic whereas this is more likely a subconscious reaction, the mirror version of OMGUS (which itself is also more often a subconsciously motivated behaviour than a deliberate tactic).

If there isn't already a term for it I propose OMGYS: Oh My God You Slay.

I think town are generally slightly more cautious about it since they know scum might be townreading them to buddy them. So Moros omgysing three other players with no apparent suspicions or distinction drawn between them seems like it could plausibly be more likely to come from scum than from town.

Consider my imaginary vote placed on Moros at the moment.

[imaginality]

If I'm a vig, I'm shooting Moros
Goodnight

good idea.

No no no! Not a good idea.

@awesoming - why did you react so strongly to that suggestion?

[imaginality]

Cee Mirage is kind of scummy

wanna tell us why?

Her engagement feels a bit off. She voted someone who hasn't posted in the game and didn't really comment on some of the more substantive things on page 6

i like csf and mirage they're townie to me rn

i think scum would wanna hide in the club of people struggling to do stuff and like, masquerade as one. not to take away from anyone in this pool who is struggling but scum know the game not moving means town get nowhere closer to figuring em out. it also could just be someone is scum *and* is struggling to do stuff that's also a possibility.

It's kinda interesting to me you ask CSF about why she suspects Cee Mirage, but then you don't engage with CSF's reply, but then call CSF and Cee Mirage both townie. Like if you think CSF is town and suspects Cee Mirage (who you read as town too) for a reason that's presumably flawed in your eyes, wouldn't you want to comment on it?

[imaginality]

If I'm a vig, I'm shooting Moros
Goodnight

good idea.

this feels like towny reaction

counterpoint it doesn't

performatively not caring about a threat is sus

i can see the reaction possibly being like that yeah

i can also see it being other things, like not actually believing that Elements was actually making a real threat

what vig calls their shot on like page 5 after all, lol?

I was the first real wagon in a game awhile back(I was town), and I was getting some suss because I basically didn't care about it since an early D1 wagon is rarely a thing that gains steam.

So I feel it is more NAI than anything here

There's also the more recent game you and I were just in where I got limmed (as town) on page 4 mainly because people thought I didn't worry enough about a page 2 wagon on me.

(I do lean scum on Moros here though but for other reasons.)

Re. the agreeing or not agreeing with Daisy I don't see why the disagreeing Moros quoted (where ming disagreed that town can't get anywhere if scum hide in the 'I'm so confused' group since town can still do poe by townreading other players) means ming's "yes" is clearly a joke, when the 'do you agree with Daisy' post in context was asking if ming was voting Titus because of Daisy's theory scum would hide in the 'I'm so confused' group.

In other words, ming could have been agreeing with Daisy on how scum would behave and disagreeing that it would stop town progressing. That's how I read it at the time. So I find ming's backtracking about the Titus vote and 'yes' and 'yes there is' posts dubious and think Black could be right about ming being scum.

[imaginality]

"I smirked" backwards is "dekrimsi"
"dekrimsi" sounds like "the crims eye"

Nice subtle cop breadcrumb!

(Don't worry, I won't tell anyone)

[imaginality]

I'm more in favour of an awesomeming327 lim than a Moros one now. Moros is still a scumread but there's more possibility Moros is wrong town than awesomeming327, I think.

VOTE: awesomeming327

[imaginality]

It seems way too early for this to be a worthwhile scum gambit from light_ganski as it'll inevitably be a 1 for 1 if CSF flips town, and way too convenient for CSF to be claiming Doctor. I believe the guilty on CSF.

Given CSF could die tonight by SK/vig we probably want to have a consensus on who we want to vote in a 'CSF flips scum tonight' scenario.

I'm gonna go reread CSF's posts; Daisy's take on the quoted post in 564 above seems plausible though.

[imaginality]

Lol I was about to post "mindmeld" too

[imaginality]

Looking at CSF's posts from N0:

Spoiler: CSF early light distancing from ming?

Yes it is but how did you reach that conclusion

carefully

I suppose if I were to be a sweaty try hard, my vote would be on you because this was one of the better chances of moving the game forward but you were not having it

VOTE: Cat Scratch Fever ez game

Why?

Spoiler: similar to the CSF question to Moros that's already been discussed

experience black awesomeming halfasleep towns.

I'm kind of perturbed that you implied you didn't have many reads in 112, but developed these reads after 3/4 people on this list just said they were leaning town on you

Why is halfasleep town?

Just noting it's similar but this time asking Moros to expand on a townread on halfasleep.

Spoiler: something that could be read two ways

I'm fine with a ming or moros fade

Without getting full context yet, no matter how either flip, it sounds like ming flipping may give more information than Moros.

What additional info would it give?

On the one hand, as discouraging the idea that a ming flip would be more useful. On the other hand, could wanting Moros to give reasons a ming flip is more useful, which would be a contrast to the "why is ming town" post. But as Moros was the alternative lim at that point, it's less likely to be the latter reason, since "ming is a more useful flip than me because xyz" only carries so much weight. So overall reading CSF's posts to date, I do think ming is still plausible as a scum buddy.
I note ming hasn't mentioned CSF at all so no insight from that side of things. I'll look at other people's comments on CSF tomorrow (NZ time).

Though from rereading the end of N0, I don't think a scum!Daisy raises even mild suspicion of CSF like she did in 502 at that particular point in the day, it seems an unnecessary risk. Cee Mirage for example also commented on CSF shortly after. Just a tad more added pressure in that moment and CSF could have ended up as the lim.

Looking at the late movement towards what became the Black Ranger lim, from p20 on:
- Drew snarked at BR for calling people who try to influence the game 'pathetic', then chuckled at BR's insouciant response
- Moros agreed with BR
- Black laughed at BR's post
- BR laughed at the '327' nickname idea
- Cee Mirage did a vote count (Moros on 4, ming on 2, BR on 2)
- Daisy voted ming
- Black voted BR, said deadline looming, read ming as frustrated town and proposed BR v Moros as the lim
- Thomith voted BR
- Black did a votecount
- ming sussed BR
- Daisy proposed unifying on BR
- ming confirmed voting BR
- Black thanked ming

Considering that sequence, the timing of Black voting BR and defending ming right after Daisy voted ming made me a little suspicious, like a {ming, Black, CSF} team might have been counting on Moros being the lim and got worried by Daisy's vote. I've liked Black's other posts though, and it's by no means implausible that the decision to push back against a ming lim was a genuine townread.

[imaginality]

Spoiler: our CSF related posts:

-awesomemeing327: voted CSF for disagreeing on strategy then claimed it wasn't a genuine vote (let's not go over all that again)

-Black: nothing related to CSF but the skim through reminded me of some good reasons for suspecting ming

-Drew: weak townread in 270

-Elements: a couple of question-answer interaction with CSF

-experience: in 186townread CSF for 162

-halfasleep: wow, fewer posts than me, impressive. Nothing on CSF

-imaginality: also townread CSF's 162; in 230 questioned Daisy's interaction with CSF

-Light_ganski: claimed cop guilty on CSF

-OopsyDaisy: asked CSF for reason for scumreading Cee Mirage in 153; townread CSF for trying in 193; in 232 answered me about why she had townread CSF and Cee Mirage while not commenting onbCSF's reasons for suspecting Cee Mirage; put CSF as top townread in 234, in 502 noted CSF had dropped off the radar

-Thomith: answered CSF in 441

Pretty thin gruel. To the extent any of this is alignment indicative, it leads me to think CSF and Daisy aren't aligned, so if CSF is scum Daisy is town I think. I also think the question-answer interactions back and forth between Elements and CSF seems like an easy way for scumbuddies to have some harmless interactions and look non-aligned. And I haven't got a town read on Elements from her other posts, so it could be worth exploring that possibility further.

My current thoughts on what we should do:
- if CSF is alive, lim CSF
- if CSF is NKed and flips scum, lim ming or Elements
- if CSF is NKed and flips town, lim light_ganski obviously
- if CSF, out of a desperate attempt to disrupt the game and escape judgment, unleashes a tiger attack on the site before the end of N1, run away faster than CSF so the tigers catch her in an ironic twist of fate

[imaginality]

Daisy's last two posts make sense to me.

Just one slight caveat, Black was pretty townread D1 and I could see her, if she's scum and ming is town, pushing for a switch to town knowing she can survive any fallout from it and it might help lead to a ming mislim on a future day if Black gets flipped first for some reason (e.g. SK/vig shot or cop guilty). But that does seem like an unnecessary risk so I agree with Daisy's read on the situation.

[imaginality]

only 4 people confirmed they actually ended up voting br, by my count (oopsie, light, csf, thomith).
2 confirmed voting for ming (me and halfasleep).
and 1 for black (drew).
that leaves 4 people, not including br, unaccounted for (elements, ming, black, imag).

but, how can we be sure scum didn't pretend to vote br?
like realistically, only 7 people needed to vote br.
any extra could easily have lied and claimed a vote on br, knowing they can't be disproven.

Sorry, overlooked this with in all the cop guilty excitement.

I voted Black Ranger. I'd been asleep the last six hours of N0 - based on where things were at when I checked out I was expecting I'd be voting ming or Moros, but when I caught up and saw where the discussion had ended up it seemed Black Ranger had gained the most consensus by end of day. So I added my vote on Black Ranger (as per my N0 belief that we don't want to risk giving scum a chance to redirect our lims).

[imaginality]

Yeah, there's no way to catch scum out if they falsely claim to have been on the lim wagon. If they falsely claim to have been on a different wagon, in some circumstances that would be possible to catch.

What could be neat in a future variant of this game would be an "election monitor" role who can target a group of say three players each Day phase, and receives the results of who they voted for (not who voted whom, just "two votes on Alice, one vote on Bob"). Or perhaps they can target one player and find out how many people voted that player.

[imaginality]

VOTE: CSF

Not sure if this is needed. Is there anyone that isn't down to fade CSF?

CSF aside, I think we're all agreed on that. We also need to see if we can get consensus on who we lim if CSF is killed by SK/vig. Earlier I suggested we lim ming or Elements. There's been a bunch of discussion since then though (which I've only skimmed so far since I was offline most of yesterday). What are people's voting intentions if CSF is NKed?

[imaginality]

Oops hi. Prod acknowledged.
This weekend has got away on me a bit.

light_ganski's #807 above is pretty much where I'm at also. Not so sure about experience being town but I'd have them above the neutral line sure.

I'd probably put my current reads as:

light_ganski
OopsyDaisy -, halfasleep ^
Black v, DoctorDrew ^, experience -
---neutral line
Thomith v, Elements v
awesomeming327 -
Cat Scratch Fever

(Trying out a new thing here where ^ means they've become more townread by me since earlier (say just after the cop guilty claim), v means they've dropped and - means no change)

[imaginality]

I voted ming.

@light that was smart.

There are at least a couple of non-foolish reasons why scum left light alive. To be honest they're obvious enough Black's question feels a tad disingenuous.

[imaginality]

Why did scum not kill LG? Drew is such a weird hit

I can think of a couple reasons yes. We don't need to discuss them

If we don't need to discuss them, why did you ask?

[imaginality]

I'm curious if you find Daisy's response to my question disingenuous as well?

Fair question. I was a bit surprised by her response too. Though my gut reaction was it felt a bit less performative.

[imaginality]

Agreed.

We also now know the end of N0 was a TvT choice (meme vs Moros) deflected to another T (Black Ranger). Which makes your push on Black Ranger NAI.

[imaginality]

Spoiler: setup spec

Looking at the setup, we can rule out the first two of the anti-town scenarios if we believe light's cop claim:

* TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer
(Not possible as we have at least one C)
* TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
(Not possible as we have had two kills)

Which leaves:
* TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer
[vs 1-shot cop and a Doc/RB/1-shot vig]
* TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
[vs 1-shot cop and a vig]
*

TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer

[vs 1-shot cop and 2-3 other PRs]
* TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
[vs 1-shot cop, a vig, and 1-2 other PRs]
*

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer

[vs 1-shot cop and 4 other PRs]
* 0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
[vs 1-shot cop, a vig, and 3-4 other PRs]

(It's not impossible we have both SK and a vig, but as that would require doc saves or targeting the same target both nights, it seems unlikely enough to rule out.)

The bolded scenarios are ones where we are in a 5 remaining town v 2+1 non-town scenario currently.

---

The fact we've had five VT flips so far points towards the first few of the above scenarios, as you'd expect the NKs or lims might have randomly hit a PR by now if we were jam packed with power.

---
Implications for current state:

In the 5 v 3 scenarios, we'll already be 3 v 3 after tonight if scum and SK managed to NK different players. So we need to get a doc or rb save tonight to have any chance.

If we're not in those scenarios, we're 6 v 2 or 6 v 1+1 currently. If we have a vig, it's likely 6 v 2.

Spoiler: vig scenario spec

Assuming if we have a vig we're 6 v 2 as seems likely:

If the vig holsters tonight and tomorrow night, worst case we get to control:
* 5 v 2 D3 lim
* 3 v 2 D4 lim

If the vig shoots tonight, worst case, we get to control:
* N2 vig shot (2/7 chance of hitting scum if not roleblocked, 1/6 chance of being roleblocked)
* 4 v 2 D3 lim
* N3 vig shot (2/4 chance of hitting scum if not roleblocked, 1/3 chance of being roleblocked)

I think that's a slightly better option overall?

I've written this during a work meeting lol so haven't double checked my workings but interested to know what others think.

So, my suggestion for today is we might as well assume we have a vig, and try to agree on two players we want to lim (in order, so if the vig shot gets blocked we know who to coalesce on for the vote).

And the vig can vig one and we lim the other.

[imaginality]

voted ming.
i think my preference here is a poe of daisy, elements, thomith, black. preferably in that order (maybe swap elements and thomith if daisy is town?). my gutread is that imaginality and experience are town.
not sure how to approach the 'vig or sk' question. i haven't played a game with a third-party in it yet so i don't have a good idea of what to look for.

I'm interested in your townread on experience. You describe it as a gutread but how strong is it?


For hunting SKs, one thing that I've seen work is spotting players who are focused on just looking for scum or just SK rather than considering both. The extra NKs could definitely come from either SK or vig, I think, so anyone who's being overly confident it's a vig might be a possible SK.

Also SKs can still seem a bit more confident/less confused than town players since they know a little bit more about what's going on. And care a little bit less about solving since they don't mind a mislims.

Take that with a grain of salt though as I haven't played many games recently.

[imaginality]

My gut still tells me Black's opening post today was performative. Drew was pretty sure Black was scum so I kinda feel if I were town!Black I'd be suspecting Drew was shot to frame me compared with a "that's so weird, why did Drew die" type of post.

And since then, Black giving me town points for making a somewhat obvious point (that happened to paint Black in a better light) felt a little like it could be from scum hoping to want to keep me on side.

@Daisy re. your point in 855 I don't see Black pushing for the BR lim as clearing her, because it's relatively riskfree as scum. Either town BR gets limmed, or town ming or town Moros do.

The risk of some suspicion on Black after BR flips town (which isn't a big risk, as townies pushing a mislim on D1 happens often enough) is balanced by the fact that if Black were to be limmed we would definitely have limmed ming or Moros afterwards out of suspicion she was deflecting away from them.

I want to look into other players more rather than tunnel, so I'll stop here, go sleep, and look wider tomorrow, but if the night mysteriously ended right now I'd probably vote Black.

[imaginality]

I have another theory but I'm gonna sit on it for a bit and I'll explain why later

For the record this was me thinking someone was trying to frame me. I didn't want to reveal it at the time because I wanted everyone to check in. I figured scum would try to frame me but so far Daisy is really the only one who has acknowledged it, so I'm assuming Drew died for other reasons

That's a plausible thought progression as town. Reconsidering my read on you.

[imaginality]

The point behind my suggestion is I'm concerned that if we don't agree openly then it's too easy for scum to potentially direct the lim to a townie.

E.g. (assuming it's 6 v 2 currently) if by the end of the night they know 3 of us suspect scumplayer and 2 of us suspect townplayer A and the other one of us suspects townplayer B, they can add their two votes to townplayer A and get townplayer A limmed. Compared to if we agree in that scenario we'll all lim player A, they can't block that happening. Even if we only get 4 of us in agreement it would stand a good chance of going through (scum could only block it if both the other townies vote the same player as each other allowing scum to tie the votes and maybe win a coinflip).

[imaginality]

My lazy paranoia-driven summation of things as I see them:

- light is town because cop gambit too risky for scum
- Daisy is town due to 502
- Black is town due to how she responded to my scumread on her

- halfasleep is scum due to 162 and 392 and the idea CSF might ask that once about a townie and once about a buddy
- Enchant is scum (despite halfasleep's read) for Elements-CSF surface level question-answer interactions. Plus my gut says scum kill Elements over Drew if they were vig hunting because of 118
- experience is scum for all the pointless busywork about who voted whom
- ketchup is scum for Thomith's lurking

Obviously I'm wrong about at least a couple of those if we're currently 6-2 or 6-1-1.

Enchant and ketchup slots feel not buddied.

[imaginality]

Considering Black commented (873 ) on 868 which laid out the remaining setup possibilities, and agreed with my proposed plan was was based in part on the remaining possibilities, I have a super hard time believing Black's 1029 is anything other than a clumsy attempt to excuse her certainty that there are exactly two scum remaining.

[imaginality]

*'which was' not 'was was'

[imaginality]

imag, does that change your opinion on black?

Yeah her reaction to my start of day pressure felt reasonable but now I'm thinking she's scum who handles pressure well. It's harder to see any explanation for this point. I don't think she'd agree with me as town without actually reading my post.

[imaginality]

understandable one way or the other. do you have a first choice out of myself, ketchup and experience?

right now ketchup is frontrunning cause of recency bias with the black push and how that was handled, but we'll see what ketchup does tomozzles after a reset.

ketchup's reaction to my point was definitely a bit over the top but to me it doesn't feel like it was done in a suspiciously piggybacking way (if anything too noisy for that). His other posts have given me a bunch of town pings for trying to solve and asking good questions. Even if his read on me is completely wrong.

--


The paranoid side of me wondered if scum!halfasleep asks the question of Daisy I quoted above (1161) to see if she should NK Daisy (if Daisy said she's most suspicious of halfasleep) or leave her alive to vote (if she's most suspicious of someone else). Though, it's not an unreasonable question to ask anyway I guess.

But I don't think halfasleep and Black are buddies and I'm reluctant to let my scumread on Black go.
Her recent annoyance at ketchup gave me a hint of 'scum caught for the wrong reasons'.

I don't think Black is buddied with ketchup or Enchant. Or with experience.

Considering I townread light_ganski that leaves Daisy. Which, would suck as I've townleaned her all game.

--

If I'm wrong about Black maybe halfasleep is the best candidate for scum. And hmm, choosing to argue about Black pairing halfasleep and ketchup while saying Black's scumread on halfasleep was reasonable seems maybe slightly more likely to be something scum would do than town?

Plus CSF did try to get Moros to explain Moros' townread on halfasleep in more detail.

--

I suppose another reason I can't see buddies for Black is maybe Black is SK. Hmm.

--

Okay, at the moment I see myself voting Black or halfasleep. I perhaps could be persuaded to vote experience or Enchant but that lim would feel more just hopeful than with solid grounds behind it.

I'm not voting ketchup, light_ganski or OopsyDaisy.

[imaginality]

@Daisy as ketchup says the argument is Black lied about not knowing the setup, not that not knowing the setup is scummy.

[imaginality]

@ketchup that's a good point that it could be 1-1 remaining and no buddies around

[imaginality]

Ehhhh. I suppose there is a chance I've become too tunnelled on Black. Still think ketchup is posting genuinely though, so

VOTE: halfasleep

[imaginality]

I don't think scum!ketchup posts #1210, even followed by #1211.

If we're not limming Black or halfasleep then I think I'd rather lim Enchant than experience. I haven't had town pings from Enchant and as I mentioned before the question-answer interactions between CSF and Elements could be a way to look non-buddied.

[imaginality]

People's current preferences based on recent posts:

ketchup777 - 4 - Black, OopsyDaisy, experience, light_ganski
Enchant - 2 - halfasleep, imaginality
experience - 1 - ketchup777
halfasleep - 1 - Enchant

I guess the only wagon other than ketchup's that could reach four votes (unless someone from the ketchup wagon switches) is experience, as Enchant and halfasleep won't vote themselves.

If ketchup777 is alive after tonight and nothing has changed in people's voting intentions from the above, I'll stick with the strategy I think makes most sense and join that wagon to stop scum disrupting it if it's on scum.

Though, I'm interested in Black's answer to ketchup's question just now.

And Daisy, you said you were open to limming experience - how strongly do you prefer limming ketchup? Would you consider switching to experience (if you, Enchant and halfasleep do, I would too)?

[imaginality]

It's 1:30am here so I won't be doing much rallying much longer but yeah halfasleep or experience both feel more likely to hit scum than ketchup to me.

Potted case on experience:
- lots of focus on getting people to say who they voted which serves no purpose but makes experience look involved
- townread CSF

- seemed certain there's an SK in 853 (scum might potentially know how likely that is i.e. a low powered scum team know there'd be less chance of a vig; from a townie pov it's closer to 50-50)
- seemed quite wishy washy today on who to lim between halfasleep, experience and ketchup which on the one hand, fair enough, it's not obvious but on the other hand had a whiff of 'anyone not me' rather than trying to solve

Halfasleep is a bit weaker case I think:
- CSF asked Moros why Moros townread halfasleep
- hasn't really made any waves

Yeah I think experience is a good lim here actually

VOTE: experience

[imaginality]

Ebwop: experience wishy-washy on who to lim between halfasleep, ketchup and Enchant

[imaginality]

Sleeping in ~20 mins so if you want any more pre-deadline thoughts from me now's the time

[imaginality]

A devil's advocate point on experience is 935 but as Black said those CSF posts could also just be distancing (the cop guilty was already outed by then)

[imaginality]

:/
if all i've succeeded in doing is dropping myself down in people's limpools, my post is really having the opposite effect of what i was asking for. like i said, i don't want to risk ending up the most scumread slot left tomorrow night. killing me now is the best thing for town.

It's really not. For one thing, flips (of whatever alignment) might help shift people's reads on you.

For another thing, it's better we lim someone who has a chance of being scum than you if you're telling the truth. Also, again assuming you're town, I don't see that you flipping town earlier helps us lim better tomorrow than e.g. if experience or ketchup flips town.

[imaginality]

You might have a point if there were a lot more polarised views on you compared to other lim candidates. Or if your townflip would clearly point to someone in particular as scum.

[imaginality]

And no, we didn't decide to vote experience. There were only 3 people in support of that fade

I counted four people in support? Ketchup, me, Enchant and Daisy also right at the end of the night.

Since that was a majority of us (once light was NKed), I voted experience. Though, it's interesting to wonder if light_ganski was NKed in part for being on the ketchup wagon (since scum had been fine leaving her alone the previous night, implying they probably have a roleblocker, Godfather or both).

[imaginality]

@Imaginality, if you were serial killer, who would you have shot last night?

Probably Black, in case I was right about her being scum.

I wouldn't have shot light_ganski cos I would have gambled that scum are blocking her. And I wouldn't have holstered as SK.

Whereas as I'm vig, I did, and I'm outing myself as vig now because I'm holstering again tonight. And the idea of claiming in twilight has some merit but not considering I will likely be asleep at the time.

Right now, from my perspective it's all but certain we're 4v2, so me holstering tonight means we're 3v2 after the night and get one more lim (admittedly, that's likely to be me). If I shoot tonight, assuming I'm not blocked, and I hit town, we lose.

I'm not confident enough in my scumreads in this game to think me shooting is better than us limming (given we get an extra flip before we vote, so more information). If I was that confident I'd have shot someone last night.

And if I do get more confident in a scumread I think I can hopefully convince remaining town of it and get my suspect limmed.

One thing I will say (should be obvious but worth restating) is: given it'll be 3v2 tomorrow we really do need to commit to all voting whoever the majority want to (by the end of tonight), because otherwise scum can definitely disrupt the vote.

[imaginality]

N1 I shot Moros, N2 I shot Cat Scratch Fever, N3 I took no action

[imaginality]

This also means I know we're in TTTT (or TT possibly if there are two more non-T results, so 1-2 more PRs; 0T seems too unlikely to consider it a possibility).

[imaginality]

If I actually were SK, not shooting last night is awful play - just straight up wrong - and claiming vig today is also awful.

I guess from a 1-shot PR's point of view they could claim, if they really believe I'm SK despite the above points. But if they do they also should do it early because first, if there are two 1 shot PRs that's compatible with my claim (and scum can't roleblocked or NK us all), and second we need town unanimity when we vote tomorrow, which a twilight 1-shot PR claim is not going to help us to achieve.

If we have another town full PR I don't think they should claim since that's compatible with my claim.

[imaginality]

Correct. It'll be 3v2 after tonight

[imaginality]

i thought imaginality was the shooty shooty guy if only i rolled scum i couldve shot him already

but see im town

Except scum have a roleblocker so could have roleblocked me last night if they suspected me. So I don't think you suspecting me to be SK proves you're not scum.

If anything with how blatant you were about that yesterday, NKing me could've raised suspicion of you, so if you are scum, roleblocking me would have been the smarter choice.

[imaginality]

Checking in to say I have stuff to do today but going to look at possible teams over the next day or two. So I will hopefully have some thoughts to share tomorrow.

I'll be focusing on N0-N2 interactions since scum could easily be bussing today.

[imaginality]

Sorry, not functioning on all cylinders the past few days.

I woke up this morning and thought in other games where I've felt this unsure at this point it's been due to a wrong assumption somewhere and I think the most likely wrong assumption for me was townbinning Daisy which I did based on a comment about CSF's activity dropping off towards the end of N0. And maybe that actually really wasn't that risky of a remark to make as scum.

Both Black and Enchant's play the past few pages annoys me and if one of them is scum I don't want us to lose because we steered away from them due to them having had a tantrum. But I do recognise that that doesn't mean either actually is scum.

I guess I townread ketchup enough to trust ketchup's townread on Enchant.

Right now, with the caveat about me not really being clear-headed, I would say my position is that if we lim Daisy we get a scum flip more likely than limming halfasleep.

Partly also because I think if both scum are in weaker positions (i.e. two of halfasleep, Enchant, ketchup) then halfasleep would be doing more today to steer to a mislim, compared to if one or both of Black and Daisy are scum. Whereas Daisy started off this night pretty unsuspected and Black arguably had got past the suspicion that fell on her for a while last night.

So I think halfasleep could only be paired with Daisy or Black but Daisy could be paired with Black or halfasleep or maybe even ketchup.

I still want to reread start to end once (even though I likely won't get a vote, still want to try to help) so don't want fast night.

[imaginality]

I don't think Enchant posts 1196 if teamed with halfasleep, it seems unnecessary to bus there

[imaginality]

I'm gambling very hard on my ketchup read.

Of the six solves that leaves, my view is (in order most likely to least):

Daisy-Black
Daisy-half
Black-half
Daisy-Enchant
Black-Enchant

As mentioned, I don't think it's Enchant-half due to how the end of last night played out.

I feel like the Black v Enchant aggro today could have been fake on either side but unlikely to be faked on both parts. (Not that it wouldn't be a good move, but just more chance we'd have realised it was theatre.) So they're lower in the possibilities but not impossible. That's my paranoia solve.

Anyhow. Not that I expect to be alive to vote but, yeah,

VOTE: OopsyDaisy

and if we lose, well, OopsyDaisy.

[imaginality]

Ohh shit.

Just thought of something scum could do if we are wrong about Daisy:

They could NK her. And then outvote us if we can't all vote for the same alternative player.

So, if Daisy flips town, who do we lim?
I would prefer Black in that scenario.

[imaginality]

No.

No to limming Black in that scenario? Or no to trying to agree our alternative lim? Or ?

[imaginality]

Lol true

This is what comes of trying to solve games with a fever folks

[imaginality]

(If that craziness did happen, for me it reduces my PoEs to either Black-Enchant or Black-half so that's why I'd want to lim Black more than limming half)

[imaginality]

Enchant's resistace to limming Black in that scenario, if it were an actual likely scenario, would be pinging my paranoia and making me think maybe it is the two of them.

But, Enchant knows the scenario's not gonna happen, so she has no reason to push back on the idea of limming Black.

So yeah maybe how Enchant responded just now actually points to Enchant being town, sl scum is Daisy with Black or half and limming Daisy gets us a scumflip.

[imaginality]

*so

[imaginality]

Goodnight

[imaginality]

Quack

[imaginality]

Good game well played.

Thanks for modding, Alianna.