Mafia 86 - mafia.gif - Game Over!

[Jahudo]

I'm off to read, yay.

All four Mafia groups still alive? That means BA is scum at least.

I can see how this could mean killing groups because it corresponds to the 4 deaths. Is it likely at all that 3 factions could have accounted for the 4 kills?

[Jahudo]

All caught up now. First the setup comments:

If we’re to believe that the night actions (kill, murder, slay, assassinate) are uniformed to a faction, and if we also believe EA’s claim—which I think we should today at the least—then he is the “murderer”. I feel that makes Greeks most likely “slayers” because hasdgfas and tarhalindur were participating and scumhunting town, and Japanese are likely “assassinators” because Armix was strong town. That leaves the “killer” as the SK, but since the killer killed Rush, I think 2 vigs are as likely, if not more so, than 1 vig 1 SK and I think it helps balance the 2 mafia and the cult.

There’s a possibility that the lack of a night 1 slay and assassination was from skitzer protecting the right person and hasdgfas blocking the right person, or some unknown power but I don’t think speculating further will clear or confirm the last Japanese.

Now that I’ve read all the days I see massive’s comment about the 4 groups legitimate. Since a subject of day 3 was wondering if there were any Japanese left with sekinj’s bah post WIFOM, we now know that there is a Japanese left.

Now to who’s scum:

Today’s lynch should be either Jebus or BA since one of them is lying.
@Jebus can you confirm this:

They can't be anything else, 'cause they were targeted by one person only, and they died from it.

Would you be told if multiple people targeted the same person?

@Jebus: Why weren’t you more suspicious of BA yesterday if you had this information? You were voting for other people and not pushing BA.

@Llama: Can you explain or restate this?

If the vig kills or murders then we do have proof that Jebus is lying though (assuming EA isnt vig) since he will be claiming having targeted one of the two dead watched players.

Which part would Jebus be lying about? Why does it factor on what the vig does?

[Jahudo]

Ok. Why did you target those people?

[Jahudo]

He is now at L-1.

I think BA should claim again.

Please no one hammer just yet. I don't think we should end today right now because we don't have to, there's a number of people not posting yet who could provide a different interpretation, and we could try and look for other scum for a vig kill and/or lynch tomorrow.

[Jahudo]

Does anyone think it's possible that we have 2 vigs? I don't know how/when the assumption of 1 SK 1 Vig started but if you think both mafias have 4 players, I think it's possible there's 2 vigs.

That leaves the “killer” as the SK, but since the killer killed Rush, I think 2 vigs are as likely, if not more so, than 1 vig 1 SK and I think it helps balance the 2 mafia and the cult.

[Jahudo]

This is what I thought about Niv's predecessors from reading:

Seraphim - His posts were mostly setup talk and jester theory but no opinion on scum or analysis on players. His suspicion on Empking looked to be limited to the possibility he was a jester and his hammer had the feel that he knew Emp wasn't a jester.

He could be Jester; I don't care. I'll deal with that next day.

This really confused me. If Emp was a jester he would've just won the game so how do you deal with that the next day? He might've meant endgame, but saying it doesn't bother him seems to go against his earlier concerns.

Tar, just remember, this was your idea.

I really don't like that he was passing off his actions onto another player. It feels like he knows what's going to happen and he's not expecting scum. This sentence looked far more scummy to me than anything else Seraphim had said. I also think his lack of opinion early on was anti-town and easy for scum to do because it isn't policed as easily in a large group.

gorckat: It does look counterproductive that he is trying to defend his predecessor, he spends three posts on it but didn't have alot of opinion on other people at that point so it seems like he's purposefully prioritizing from what he sees.

His vote on massive does not explain a whole lot. He says that massive is willing to vote anyone. I didn't get a strong feel of that from anyone on my first read so I'll have to look back at a few people. But gorckat didn't give examples of this so his vote does not look like good scumhunting.

I didn't see gorckat as too scummy because his opinions didn't get to develop on a wagon or jump to a new one, but I can see his motivation for just barely suspecting two people who had several spotlights on them at the time (massive and ShadowGirl).

I think Niv can turn things around and look pro-town so I'm interested in his post.

[Jahudo]

Still hold true what I said about no counter-vig means we dont lynch EA. A scum-scum-SK-SK-cult setup is just wow.

I looked through finished large games going back to 2005 and found a few games with 2 vigs:

• Mafia 44 – 20 players, 1 vig, 1 day vig, ? scum
  Mafia 36 – 25 players with 2 vigs, 1 five player mafia
  Mafia 33- 32 players with 2 vigs, 1 five player mafia, 1 three player mafia?
  Mafia 30 – 24 players with 2 vigs, 2 SKs on same team, 2 3-player mafias
  Mafia 27 – 30 players with 1 1-shot vig, 1 vig, 2 5-player mafis, 1 SK

Only Mafia 27 and 30 are comparable games because Mafia 30 had a 3:1 ratio of town to scum, and Mafia 27 had a 2.7:1 ratio of town to scum.

If we assume there's two 4-player mafias + 1 cult and 2 vigs (no SKs), we have a 2.67:1 town to scum ratio.

The two 4-player mafia + 1 cult + 1 SK is a 2.4:1 town to scum ratio.

I'd bet we have one of the lower town to scum ratios in the large games I looked through, although cross-killing would statistically help town. The point is, I think there's a chance of 2 vigs so a case on EA should not be pushed based on a second vig claim.

But I do agree that EA's kills do not have the best reasoning. The CKD kill looked more like getting rid of a personal threat than a town threat.

[Jahudo]

Niv: How's that post coming along?

I still like the possibilities of the WIFOM situation where we kill SK-EA and scum have to let him live or risk getting caught by you. You indirectly act as a doctor in this game now.

It is a good strategy because if Jebus is town we should have some factor to increase his chances of staying alive now that his role is out there. But if Jebus is scum the only way he could be scum is with EA. I'll support outing the other vig but only later in the day.

[Jahudo]

Plus, it's always dangerous to try to meta mods, but I'd say that Dead Rikimaru would sooner put two SK's in a game than two vigs.

By itself it sounds possible, but with 3 known scum factions (cult, jap, greek) it's hard for me to believe in 5 scum factions.

Personally I don't like the case on Niv, I don't figure Seraphim as one who'd replace out just because of a bit of pressure.

I didn't see any tell from his replacing out but I thought he was scummy before he left. How did you read his statement when he voted for Empking by saying it was Tar's idea to do so and not his?

My suspicious list:

After Niv, I agree with some of the points on BA. I don't think that calling "Stef partially cleared..." was scummy at the time but of course knowing Stef's alignment gives some bias now. What I really didn't like was his wagon hopping at the end of the day 3. He didn't give reasons on his gorckat, Rush, or skitzer vote which I think he should've even if they were the viable lynches at a deadline. He also had FoS'es on Emp, CKD and Sierra day 2 but during day 3 he didn't bring any case against CKD or Sierra. He didn't have suspicions until the end of that day really.

I don't think massive has looked scummy for the wagons he agrees with, mostly because backs up his votes with attention to the case. When I read the game I got the opposite feel from Cybele.

Cybele I thought was actively making no-content posts and some jokes. He has a weak vote on BA that wasn't built up by any previous opinion. His last post goes after massive for not posting and going on V/LA. That didn't feel right because Cybele just finished a gap of 7 days without posting (Oct. 3-10) but didn't return with anything but that weak vote. But I think Llama has looked pro-town so far.

[Jahudo]

Niv flaked in all his games in the week since his last post here. His posts and inactivity are a null tell for me and I'd like to hear what the fonz has to say about the game, if he's read everything yet since he's been in line to replace in.

I stated I believe BA to be part of the same group as stef.

How much of your suspicion on BA rests with posts that link him to stef? Do you see any WIFOM where he could be distancing from someone still alive?

[Jahudo]

I need to look over some of the stuff you're saying about Llamafluff, but I do like your effort to bring in as much information as possible to help revitalize this town.

Haha, Friend of Scum in 436.

This does seem like an important post by sekinj. She (jap scum) FoS Electra (greek scum) for defending BA (who we think is jap scum) on the grounds that him being jap scum is too obvious. I actually like the idea that Jap would say this. It’s distancing sekinj and BA while suspecting someone who’s linking BA to Japs.

611: Such speculation ill-befits you, massive. Just a TERRIBLE argument, almost voteworthy alone.

Agreed. Drawing conclusions from flavor looks worse when there’s a vote in the same post.

713: Meh, even a good vote from massive comes with a crap reason attached.

What reason are you referring to?

898: BlakAdder still scummy as F***.

Agreed.

899: Llama's pick of Niv (me) even ignoring the obvious OMGUS reaction, is horrible. The claim that Seraph appears to have inside information is laughable.

Llama this could use clarification. When I read “Inside information” I thought you were talking about Seph calling the lynch Tar’s idea and that if Emp turned up town then the joke would be on Seph.

934: Grrr. I need to think about whether to apply LAL here. Probably not, though what the hell, if BA was a different PR?

And it wasn’t well thought out because it might have gotten the real killer (if they’re pro-town) to counter claim.

Vigs should never counterclaim. Just shoot the faker.

That sounds like the best plan but SK’s are sometimes NK immune right? Is that a varient that is not typical for large normal game roles?

The Jester thing obviously isn't a scumtell

I didn’t mine the Jester theory so much but I did have a problem with him trying to disown himself from the hammer by saying it’s Tar’s idea.

[Jahudo]

Well, NK-immune is significantly less common in setups like this. Largely because there's something a bit unbalanced about a role which cannot commit associative tells, OR be killed at night.

What do you mean by "setups like this". I understand what you mean about already not having associative tells is like a power.

He was disowning it, but in the sense of 'Well, I told you he looked like a Jester, don't blame me if he is.' He wasn't trying to avoid blame if Emp came up town; in fact, Seraphim explicitly denies the possibility:

If he isn't a jester, he's definitely scum.

Ok. That quote about jester or definite scum does seem to disown from a jester reveal more than a town one.

[Jahudo]

Seph was the first to speculate about multiple factions, with just two kills at night. There was a cult and scum flip which again really doesnt sound like scum-scum-cult-sk threat to me. At this point in my read I expected scum-cult-sk-maybe vig.

I suspected Seph for doing more setup talk than scumhunting but I didn't think that he slipped by talking about the scum factions or that he did anything scummy by bringing it up. And Fonz notes that Seph wasn't the first to talk about the possibility of two mafias. So Llama's point #5 looks like an inflated suspicion.

Assuming two mafia families when there are only half of what have become the normal death rate makes me think he saw an opposing mafia faction flip, and jumped to a conclusion.

Since Seph was responding to Sweatpantsninja's comment about the word japanese, it was a small step to wonder why they didn't flip regionally nondescript mafia goon. It would be a small step then to assume that the 2 night kills were performed by the 2 mafias.

And IMO, CKD and Tar are the ones that look worse in hindsight for playing down the idea of 2 mafias so people won't think in those terms.

An unrelated point: Does stef being in the japanese mafia imply two mafias?

I do believe there are at two Mafia families. The first clearly killed a member of the opposing family, so there's now a Mafia family with one less member. The second kill may be the Cult Leader who tried to recruit a Mafia member or the second Mafia family's kill.

If we have two mafias, I bet we also have a vig (of some sort) unless he is allowing cross kills. With evidence of a cult, I doubt we have a SK, but nothing should be ruled out.

I doubt we have two full Mafia groups, based mainly on the existence of a Cult. Mafia + SK sounds more plausible to me.

[Jahudo]

EA is not going to be the SK, doesnt fit. I am thinking vig, small chance other scum. SK really doesnt fit the kill pattern though.

@LlamaFluff, what happened to thinking EA was the SK? You said his kill pattern DID fit SK earlier:

EA is nearly certain anti-town since the vig probably killed Rush.

EA I did have leaning town, but results say he killed the townish CKD last night. Rush was nearly certaintly the vigs doing.

I like the EA lynch since he is the one doing the murdered kills, and neither ooba or CKD looked scummy to me meaning I dont think he is the vig.

Also, what makes you think Sierra or I are the SK?

[Jahudo]

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.

I completely disagree because Jebus claim was tainted in a lie. Of course he didn't target GW the day he died. That is not hard to fake a comment like that when it is probably true based on them scum buddies together

So BA's denial was genuine but it doesn't make him any less likely to be scum, he's just not responsible for GW's death.

Llama: I'd also like to know how BA not killing a japanese mafia member (GW) makes BA less likely to be in japanese mafia?

[Jahudo]

My notes basically just have you two as options at this point. EA doesnt fit and SL doesnt fit for that part of the puzzle. I have strong greek or a town read on everyone else (except BA who I just am clueless on).

What does Springlullaby have to do with the puzzle?

And for that matter, where is Springlullaby?

[Jahudo]

We haven't heard from BA, EA, or SL in over a week either.

[Jahudo]

Yes, SK should claim. I'm not him though.

Another alternative is Llama greek with EA. But that's too big a machination I think. Which makes EA probably vig.

Or EA could be greek without Llama being greek, which I'd believe now more than vig given Llama's claim.

The above is queer. Note the emphasis on *is*, it makes no sense. What is implied here is that greek would be more interested in lynching jap. In itself that is a reasoning I can see, only this reasoning is independent of whether BA turns up Jap or not, because presumably greek can't know who's jap or not, unless in case of mafiacop knowledge of which would be suspicious.

It looks like WIFOM to me, but I can see the town reasoning.

[Jahudo]

The following people have responded since Llama's claim saying/implying they aren't SK:
-The Fonz
-springlullaby
-Jahudo
-farside
-Sierra

ShadowGirl only noticed the claim by unvoting Llama but she did not say if this clears Llama in her eyes, or if she is SK or if she wants SK to claim.

So, ShadowGirl, BA, Jebus, massive, and EA: What do you think of Llama's claim? Are you the SK or do you think the SK should claim now?

[Jahudo]

Does he become a vanilla townie or does he keep his NK?

He said this earlier:

If I do target the SK during the night, they become vanilla town, and their night kill does not go through.

If he does claim, the Mafia could easily kill him tonight to prevent us from earning another player. If the SK claims, then a Doc (if there is one), should protect him tonight, but not claim.

But if he doesn't claim then Llama could die tonight and the SK would remain scum until we figure out how to kill him. It's too risky.

The SK kill is unpredictable the way it stands and if we don't eliminate a killing faction today we might not have any more chances or only one more chance. This way we can guarantee only 3 kills but hopefully 2 at night.

Massive and SG need to respond.

[Jahudo]

Massive: Please say if you are SK in your next post.

I think BA has and continues to look scummier than SG by far.

However, do you think at such an early stage I would have risked my neck for him?

This is the only problem I have with SG's latest post. I'll admit that scum probably wouldn't dismiss the idea entirely.

Now this is interesting. Both BA and SG did similar things D1, just SG did it a bit less blatantly then BA did. They both made a connection between tajo-stef that hinged partially on the other being scum. BA said that tajo town leans stef town, SG used stef scum so tajo scum. SG just jumps on BA though, and then lurks for most of the rest of the day.

Where have I explicitely said that if one flipped scum that it meant the other was as well?[/quote]
This just reminds me how we should be lynching BA.

BA is at L-2 if I'm not mistaken so I will hold my vote until massive shows up.

[Jahudo]

Mod: massive hasn't posted in 10 days anywhere on the site. If deadline is still Jan. 19, can he be replaced soon to give the replacement a chance to read?

/*
* I'll try to find a replacement for Massive.
*/

[Jahudo]

Hi.

I glanced at a couple isolations. I believe EA's claim, when I was reading through it (because I knew the kills) I thought maybe he vigged Ooba...Then he claim vig on Ooba.

Vote Spring

Lurking, seen her lurk as scum.

Also glanced at SG's, but was far too long to make much of.

Why do you think he killed ooba? Do you think he was as suspicious of ooba as he was of curiouskarmadog day 1?

Xtomx: Llama claimed Psychologist and says he can turn SK into vanilla town over night. You are the only one who hasn't denied being SK. Thoughts on that?

[Jahudo]

@massive: Can you confirm or deny being the SK?

He said it a few posts ago:

Will go back and re-read everything that happened but I am NOT the SK.

Which means that A) There is no SK or B) The SK wants to remain in hiding.

I'm still confidant that BA is scum but I'll look over SG posts again because right now I only see her as 3rd or 4th scummiest in the group.

[Jahudo]

Has SG claimed in an earlier post? If not she should probably do it now.

[Jahudo]

I haven't breadcrumbed anywhere.

On night one, I investigate armlx: innocent.
Night two, Tar : (No result, he died.)
Night three : BA (I was blocked.)

Why did you choose these people specificially? Particularly why did you choose armix and not mention him day 2 or 3 as looking town?

Conveniently a roleblocker, hascow, was killed night 3. His power could've gone through I think, but we don't know for sure who he targeted.

I don't know what to think of this claim yet but we should give it some thought at least. Can anyone find posts that would indicate SG wanting to investigate armix, Tar or BA?

[Jahudo]

Your mish mash game happened quite a bit after I joined your mish mash game, Jahudo. ;P And it was partially because you're in this game that if you were scum you would easily catch onto my breadcrumbs, and well, I was kind of betting on being alive.

The mish mash game started on Nov. 7th and ended Dec. 12th.
That places this game at the start of Day 3, which started Oct. 27th.

I didn't join the game until Dec. 13th so me catching your breadcrumbs would not have applied in November if you wanted to breadcrumb your role or that armix was town. I don't think that not breadcrumbing in that situation is a scum tell, however.

Also of note: hascow was pretty suspicious of SG when he replaced in but then he changed his vote when he thought Rush and skitzer were more important. But his biggest case was on SG, so I find it plausible that he would've RB'ed her.

[Jahudo]

I said armlx seemed almost 'too town'. And secondly, yes, I did imply that you

could

be scum, not solely because of that, but that point is something that makes me wonder.

Where? You said this:

Armlx seemed very pro-town to me, and such is this case that I usually turn the other way - so I figured I'd ensure that he was on town's side. I'd intended to investigate BA, but changed my mind at the last minute.

These seem like different excuses to me.

Since you people are so big on breadcrumbs, here's mine, I guess. I found as many synonyms of the word 'remove', if that makes any sense to anyone...

You just made that so why are you referring to it?

[Jahudo]

Hammer time yet?

I would be fine with a hammer if SG doesn't have anything important to add. Her latest defenses seem to be grasping for excuses and her opinion and treatment of armix sounds contradictory. She's still not my first choice but she's not a bad choice.

I'll wait for a final post from SG though.

[Jahudo]

The whole 'remove' thing: It's a reference to the win condition. No one caught on?

I think I know what you're saying but how do you know or we know that scum don't have that word too?

[Jahudo]

as to whether I should change about inspecting armlx (which is true), and say that instead I inspected BA (and got guilty - which would make a whole lot more sense given how I acted), knowing that I am going to turn up cop. But then again, if I'm wrong then that would be setting you all up for a steep fall.

No, you shouldn't do that in games because if we follow your lead and kill town you said was scum, it will look like you have a different cop sanity.

Anywho, since noone looks like they can be convinced off the SG wagon and SG looks pretty scummy, I'll vote her. EA or the second vig or whoever should kill BA though.

Vote: ShadowGirl

[Jahudo]

Since EA killed greek and jap, and isn't SK, I agree he must be town. It seems more likely than Llama being naive Psychologist.

Also waiting for Jebus.

Also: I demand a massclaim.

Seconded. Should we have it random dice? I think only four of us haven't claimed:
1. The Fonz
2. Jahudo
3. massive
4. Sierra

[Jahudo]

Farside Quotes:

spring: post 739 WIFOM!!!!

This is the only time she mentioned springlullaby, which makes me think she was content with ignoring scumbuddies when they were already being ignored.

Sierra - post 128> I don't like the way sierra wants to stand back instead of giving pressure to Stef. Vote for Sera is poor reason in comparison to other stuff going on. Post 161. Please sitting back and waiting to see what others say and do is scummy.

Upon entering the game, farside was already suspecting Sierra who was not a target. I think Sierra is less likely greek from this.

Seraphim - post 514 feels like someone trying to protect someone they know will turn out town. Also was the Jester comment really necessary?

Tarhalindur, sekinj, and armix were suspicious of Sera’s jester idea but only armix was still alive the next day and sekinj flipped scum so that point against Sera must have been weakened initially. I don’t see anywhere that people were thinking Sera knew Emp would flip town, so farside looks to be starting this suspicion rather than giving it momentum.

vote: blakadder
Fos: Seraphim, ShadowGirl and Sierra

Upon joining the game and reading, this was her conclusion. Only BA was being heavily suspected before this post, which explains her priority to vote him. Since people were not already suspecting Sera, SG, or Sierra, I think it’s likelier to assume they’re town BUT I wouldn’t be surprised if 1 is scum because these accusations are not that strong and farside is betting on BA suspicion to grow.

massive looks like he jumped on the SG bandwagon more then actual scum hunting or pushing for anything at this point.

Massive was becoming a more viable lynch at this time than BA so this quote makes me think farside wants to switch over to massive.

<snip> Also I asked for an extension because I was on limited access and felt something was missing with the SG and massive comments. Lots of lurking and no one really talking. …
<snip>Do you think massive or SG is scum and why them over skitzer's just oops I forgot and read comments are?

More evidence that farside is trying to to further the two dominant wagons, SG and massive.

I have no case on Niv myself.

Why would scum say this, especially when she can refer back to post 571 when she FoS’ed Sera? By post 969 the following people were suspecting Niv: massive, LlamaFluff, Jahudo, Sierra, Jebus. This makes me seriously wonder if The Fonz is greek.

Farside,, you apparently believe BA is Jap and EA SK. Who's greek?

I would say Llama as top contender based on his last comment.

She wasn’t voting for Llama but the following people were suspicious of him: The Fonz, Jebus, massive. Some people were thinking Llama was very pro-town, but farside is much more eager to jump on a Llama wagon than a The Fonz wagon.

I have strong greek or a town read on everyone else (except BA who I just am clueless on).

The part in bold is an odd thing to say. It seems like what mafia bussing a scum partner. Why for example is it town or Greek on people. I have only been in one game with Llama when he was mafia but I read another where he did bus his scum parnters to look more town.

I think this also shows that Llama is not greek but farside is trying to paint him as greek.

I'll post springlullaby quotes next but from farside I feel that:
Massive, LlamaFluff, and Sierra are not likely greek.
The Fonz might be greek.

[Jahudo]

Springlullaby Quotes:
I didn’t see anything valuable from Haschel Cedricson.

Personally I don't like the case on Niv, I don't figure Seraphim as one who'd replace out just because of a bit of pressure.

Like farside, springlullaby doesn’t push the Niv wagon that already has the following people on it: massive, LlamaFluff, Jahudo, Sierra, Jebus. I don’t think there is anything SL previously said that would contradict her from safely suggesting that Niv might be scum. This strengthens my opinion that The Fonz is greek.

You know, if BA *is* the last Japanese scum, we will have seen quite the number of self-serving scummy votes leading up to his lynch.

<snip>And my guess is that it is a scumslip and that massive is prolly greek himself and that he is distancing from an action that could be perceived as greek hence the faulty reasoning.

This interaction doesn’t look like bussing to me because massive would basically be giving away SL and farside’s actual strategy and SL is trying to undermine massive by calling out his bussing. If massive is greek this is Oscar winning acting here, but I think this makes massive anything but greek.

Also, I pledge to hammer massive if he is ever put at L-1. I don't like his return to the game after quitting.

Once again I think SL is genuinely trying to lynch massive.

Based on farside and SL posts, massive is not greek but The Fonz still could be.

And reading The Fonz’s posts I found 1 instance where he called SL out for lurking but he was also in effect suspecting SG and Cybele at the same time and he suspected them more. There was 1 instance where The Fonz suspected Farside for when massive said “four mafia groups” instead of “four killing groups” but nothing developed from that suspicion.

[Jahudo]

Still wondering why we never got rid of massive.

What happened to this:

I've got no hard evidence on massive, so my justification on killing him is much lighter.

You originally voted for him based on actions in page 4 and 8. Do those suspicions still hold that much weight? If not what else have you seen? And if you count suspicions from Day 4, do you think they are exaggerated by the fact that farside and springlullaby were the two people pushing those suspicions?

With Electra alone you work better to me but how farisde/sl played I think sierra works a little bit better. Still close though, 70/30 or so.

Looking forward to the case because I can't get much from Electra's suspicion lists. She listed Haschel Cedricson (who turned into springlullaby) as having a medium connection to Stef but I don't know what to make of that. And Electra never said anything about farside or her predecessor who never posted anyway.

Seraphim - does not address stef, level: medium

That's the only time she mentioned him and I don't think it means anything.

And Seraphim never mentioned Electra so what is your case?

I don't like how farside practically ignores Niv by saying "I have no case on Niv myself". It looks to me like he's trying to divert attention away from Niv by first trying to push a wagon on EA, and when that fails he resorts to attacking BA. Possible scum-buddy behaviour there.

I think this is the only time Sierra mentions farside and I thought it made them less likely scumbuddies. What do you think?

I don't think springlullaby ever mentioned Sierra.

Farside did FoS Sierra early on like Seraphim and drop the cases against both later on in favor of massive and BA, but the main difference I see is Niv became a lynchable target while Sierra never was. So I guess Sierra could be greek but I haven't found as much evidence.

[Jahudo]

I'm a

Vigilante

. I can kill every night and I know that I get the "killer" flavor because I'm responsible for these deaths: Stef, GhostWriter, Rush, and BlakAdder.

I wanted to claim that about a hundred times Day 3 which is why I always seemed to hang on finding the SK, because it would mean to me that EA was mafia. Now I can only guess that there is no SK or Llama is naive psychologist.

That leaves the “killer” as the SK, but since the killer killed Rush, I think 2 vigs are as likely, if not more so, than 1 vig 1 SK and I think it helps balance the 2 mafia and the cult.

One of many times I pushed the idea of 2 vigs.

I targeted Tarhalindur (didn't get targeted),

Ghostwriter (killed by BlackAdder)

I wanted to claim when Jebus said this lie but I started to wonder if he was trying to just out the vig so I kept quiet.

I'm a vig. I shot ooba night 1 because he ignored my accusation when I voted him.

I thought about claiming here too but I waited to hear from everyone if they thought the counter-claim was the best plan. I probably said that four or five people had the best plan but in the end I didn't want to give the mafia both vigs if that was the case, I didn't want to lynch one of us if that was the case, and I really thought BA was scum so I hammered knowing I could still kill him at night.

Massive's turn.

[Jahudo]

Jahudo: Knowing that Jebus had lied in his investigation results, why didn't you kill him last night?

He still knew that EA killed those people so either his power role was right or he was scum with EA. Since the dead japs and greeks don't appear to have PR's I figured it would be one of those options.

Since EA murdered sekinj they could only be greek together in this scenario. I figured greeks chances of winning were slim enough and defendant on other factors that if EA and Jebus were greek together I could monitor them and hope to have a better idea on the third greek.

There has to be a way to make this work out right. I dont think there would be two doctors in a game,

Is that what you become once the SK is turned into a vanilla? That's what the Wiki says under "Psychiatrist" but you are a "Psychologist" and there isn't a Wiki for that. It says Psychiatrists are linked so there has to be an SK. Do you think the Psychologist = Psychiatrist? Does anyone think a naive Psychologist/Psychiatrist is bastard modding or legit?

and according to the mod a faction doublekilling a player would register both methods in the night scene.

Who said that and where?

The SK is immune to NKs, and one of the mafia factions just tried to kill them last night.

It would have had to of been the last remaining greek. Since the greeks went into night with 3 people, maybe SL or farside tried to send their kill but it didn't work because they got killed first? Or maybe they thought that killing EA was more important. From their POV, EA wouldn't be greek, jap (he already NK'ed one), or SK (if they believed you).

Now, today we can try and lynch Greek. IF and only if we lynch greek.

Why if and only if greek? They both have 1 now right?

Then force out some night actions as follows. EA - Jahudo target eachother, I target Jahudo.

This is probably the best solution.

What do people think of my farside and springlullaby reads? I disagree with this:

thinking about it gets you into a blatant Wifom situation, so I choose to avoid that.

Because I believe that more often than not scum will support a town lynch that A) doesn't contradict the scum's prior statements and B) is already wagoned with town members. They don't have to vote like opportunistic scum but they should show more enthusiasm than farside and SL did towards Niv.

[Jahudo]

Greek has to be between two people so it makes more sense to look there. EA and you are killing roles, Jebus is a watcher, massive doesnt fit after that BS wagon yesterday and im the psych. Just leaves two people to fill that slot.

If either Fonz or Sierra is greek, then wouldn't the last jap be either massive or Fonz/Sierra that isn't greek? Then I understand what you're saying that we have the best chance at finding mafia in Fonz/Sierra.

I just dont get how EA is the SK though without me being unknowingly blocked, ineffective or some other role somehow screwed with my night actions.

You've probably already answered this, but have you gotten PM's saying this guy isn't SK each time? Was night 1 any different? I'll admit that getting RB'ed sounds more realistic than naive psy or red herring psy.

Even if we mislynch the vig I can at least attempt to target the SK tonight, with any luck it would work this time, and worst case scenario we have confirmed anti-town tomorrow right off the bat.

There shouldn't be anything to stop you now unless getting killed prevents you from using a power. And it will give us an extra town, meaning an extra vote tomorrow.

[Jahudo]

Exactly why I want an SK lynch. I am pretty sure that the SK doesnt have any way to dodge my conversion appart from interaction with other roles. Getting killed shouldnt prevent me from using a power but im just trying to map out any possible scenario, if for some reason I die and the SK stays SK they are outed in this situation.

Short version: This prevents an SK win so a smart SK would join the townies and free up today's lynch for scum.

[Jahudo]

Today: We lynch Fonz.
Tonight: LF recruits me, Jahudo vigs Sierra, Jebus watches Jahudo.
Tomorrow: If both me and LF are both alive to confirm a successful recruit, we lynch massive. Otherwise, we lynch whichever of me and LF is still alive, then Jahudo vigs massive.

I am in favor of this plan.

Vote: The Fonz

[Jahudo]

How about we complete the damn massclaim?

Everyone's claimed.

Either Jahudo is the SK, or Llama was lying when he said unequivocally that EA is not, there are no other options- UNLESS someone admits to having blocked Llama in the remaining part of the massclaim.

EA claimed SK. Either LlamaFluff is pulling a five star fake claim or was RB'ed night 1 by hascow's predecessor, which we can't know. But a Roleblocker was alive night 1 when Llama's predecessor checked EA.

Fonz is at L-1. We should have more talk about who is greek and jap in people's eyes. I'm not sure which of Sierra and massive is more likely Fonz.

Llama: can you post you're Sierra case in full?
Jebus: can you post you're massive case in full?

[Jahudo]

Also, I can't remember which of you it is that was saying that farside defended me by wagoning massive instead- when farside had unvoted massive before i even replaced in.

It was Niv but that's still you.

Day 3 farside replaces in and attacks Seraphim who doesn't have pressure on him.
Day 4 Niv replaces in and practically everyone but farside and springlullaby push his wagon. Farside says she has no case on him which is a lie because she never dropped her case on Seraphim.

Why?

[Jahudo]

You had a good fake claim I'll give you that. With all the scum we've had I was willing to believe that hascow really blocked you but maybe you did slip because I've only heard of a psychiatrist treating a SK, not a psychologist.

[Clint Eastwood]The only winner today's gonna be the undertaker.[/Eastwood]

Vote: EA

[Jahudo]

ouch. I'm surprised this lasted as long as it did since we didn't lynch scum until day 6.

[Jahudo]

EA's reason's for killed CKD was completely off and why the vig didn't claim earlier at one point was beyond me.
Good job from Llama.

I was serious about believing in 2 vigs because I thought there were too many scum to also have an SK. I also thought he could be greek originally and maybe other greeks would show themselves. Also I wanted to live a couple more days. Also also I think you told us that Vig should keep quiet and I agreed

Farside and spring: Why didn't you go for the Niv wagon day 4?

Llama was basically an SK since all the other greeks had died before he replaced in. But even without having associative tells I thought he did a good job at looking town.

You do realize you lynched a cop without a counterclaim, correct?

Having a Tracker and Watcher make it sound like Cop won't also show up, even in a large game. But then again I thought there were 2 vigs so the absence or presence of any role shouldn't be assumed.

[Jahudo]

Hold on, near the end couldn't Jahudo have vigged LF? Since technically there was a way to revert his majority? Not that he doesn't deserve to win. <3

He reached his win condition at twilight and I wouldn't have reached mine until night. Note to self: Never trust scum when they try to bargain a draw