Mini 161 - Simpsons Mafia - Game Over

[DarkLight140]

Wow. You know, I really feel kind of bad for you now. Not only do you get a nasty description of death ("brutally stabbed" is hardly vig-like), you have the bad luck to have your first kill seen by the watch on someone who no one else targeted, AND, as if those weren't enough (there's no way you could have bought yourself more than a day), the mod changes certain things and disrupts your already stretched claim. The only thing to do now is

vote: LoudmouthLee

. Better luck next game.

Day One turned out quite well, though. May we stay so lucky in the future.

[DarkLight140]

BrianMcQueso, I think you may have missed a bit of the issue. It went something like this:

-Mastermind of Sin died. His death read "Mastermind of Sin - Mafia (Brutally stabbed night 1)" (or something like that).
-halfpint claims neighborhood watch with now-perished Narninian, and they saw LoudmouthLee in Mastermind of Sin's house. No one else was seen.
-LoudmouthLee claims he was at everyone's house. No explanation is given for why Mastermind of Sin died.
-He quickly claims Krusty afterwards. He says he broadcasts into all houses.
-He then says each night, he looks for Sideshow Bob and kills him if he finds him. (Side note: I'm pretty sure this role has been seen before- Hobbit Mafia had one against Smaug unless I'm mistaken. Smaug died Night One, though, so it didn't matter. In any case, I found the roleclaim plausible.)
-The mod updates the first post, so that part of it now reads "Mastermind of Sin - Nelson Muntz - Mafia (Brutally stabbed night 1)".

LoudmouthLee gives himself up (apparantly as a Serial Killer), apologizing to the scum and in general being flamboyantly anti-town, now that he's been revealed without doubt. There's way, way more than an iffy roleclaim against him.

[DarkLight140]

Whoa... I didn't notice that this had unlocked early. Sorry about that.

I'm pretty curious to know people's suspicions right now. At the moment, I feel kind of off balance thanks to the disturbingly fast, and after a certain point seemingly pre-set, Day One. In fact, I'm suprised that whoever killed Riven (Coron, probably) was able to read him, or really anyone... though that could just be lack of skill on my part.

As for the third kill, well, I'd guess either a one-shot, a mafia ability of some sort, or possibly, uh, someone else. I'd note that warpdragon was "wacked" yesterday, if I recall correctly, and that rendered him dizzy. I'm not sure if use of the same word (and interesting spelling) is intentional on the mod's part or not, but if it is, there could be some sort of take-two-turns-to-kill role, maybe?

[DarkLight140]

While I like your plan, BrianMcQueso, I don't know how well it will work. See, I don't see Moe as either the stabbing or whacking type, but either he killed like that, or this game had the potential for no less than five kills in a night (SK killed yesterday, Coron, the three kills today). I don't see how that could possibly be so, and so, well, I'm inclined to believe that method of death isn't as strongly related to character as one might expect.

[DarkLight140]

That plan has a couple flaws. Firstly, the cop is dead; secondly, unless I'm mistaken, a single watchman has only a 50% chance of working, even if the right house is targeted. As it seems we've lost only power roles and scum, it's possible all we've got left are a doc, halfpint, and three townies going against one scum, so that delaying only gets us a kill and a 1/10 chance of having the scum seen (that figure may be slightly off, but you get the message).

On the other hand, well, the town could hold out for a while that way, and as people die, for up until a round after the doc is hit, the odds of our watch giving us something useful improve. So, while I'm against the plan, I suppose it could be done- not sure on the odds, though.

[DarkLight140]

I'm not sure if no lynch is a good idea or not. I feel a bit bad lurking, as this is the only game that I'm in that hasn't stalled, but really I don't have anything more to say than that I'm unsure. My feelings at the moment are against, but I'm going to be easily swayed, as I've never been in a situation with such a huge, and known, town:scum ratio.

[DarkLight140]

All right, then...

vote: No Lynch

.

[DarkLight140]

I'm Principal Skinner, and am (therefore!?!) a roleblocker. I don't quite get the logic on that, but, hey. I target someone every night, and they're either given no result, or told that their ability failed, as appropriate. As we should probably be sharing results/records, I blocked csergogaby last night and Coron the night before.

[DarkLight140]

(Firstly, halfpint, according to the gender mark under the name, is female. Just a heads-up, Dranko20. )

I posted the accuracy thing after looking up how the Watch works on the wiki. It lists the watch there as having a 50% chance of getting results if there's only one member watching a house. Apparently, we're better off than I thought.

I'd agree about the "Comic Book Guy" as the name being odd... as far as I can tell, everyone else was given their name. However, a quick search on "Comic Book Guy" revealed the following, courtesy of Wikipedia:

"In an old interview, Matt Groening stated that Comic Book Guy's original name was Louis Lane (a play on Lois Lane's name). Though he was only referred to as "Comic Book Guy" in the show, this was thought to be his real name. A long running gag on the show was to have never revealed Jeff's name (only calling him "Comic Book Guy"). Other characters usually referred to him by name as "Comic Book Guy." The gag concluded on the February 6, 2005 episode, when he told Ned Flanders that "my name is Jeff Albertson, but everyone calls me Comic Book Guy"."

So, I'm not exactly sure what to think. Given that the game started on Feb 24, it's quite possible- and I'd even say fairly likely- that brushhopper was given "Comic Book Guy" as his name, but it does serve as an oddity in the pattern, and his role ability does seem to put the town as a bit investigation-heavy.

Of course, if csergogaby is to be believed, there were 11 non-townie roles and 1 townie. Which, frankly, seems just as implausible. So, I'm a bit torn between the two.

[DarkLight140]

Uh, oops. I had a bit of an error in my results- I'd been checking my savebox, and hadn't saved last night's result from my inbox yet. I blocked Coron Night One, csergogaby Night Two, and brushhopper Night Three. To me, at least, this explains a few things. It seems to have caused a bit of confusion (and suspicion) without it.

However, it doesn't clear brushhopper by a long shot. His roleclaim of limited investigator is still a bit stretched, and while I don't think being named Comic Book Guy makes him any more suspicious, there's still the error of him claiming 3 people one moment and two the next. I'd vote him, but I think that would be a lynch, and I'd like to give him a chance to resolve this difference.

[DarkLight140]

Hey, if you've got nothing to say for youself... not that it matters, but,

vote: brushhopper

.

[DarkLight140]

I roleblocked csergogaby, mostly because I have real trouble believing in a single townie when everyone else has a role. If you got information somehow saying you lived because of a protect, though, I think we've got the puzzle solved... but only to me.

In any case, I would say that your plan seems solid- the best the scum could achieve is a stalemate by not killing anyone. I hate to die, but, well, it's all for a good cause, I guess... and although it seems to me at least that blocking BrianMcQueso could keep us alive in any case, I can see how you don't have to buy that.

[DarkLight140]

csergogaby- It wouldn't be a good move to lynch you at all. You're about as confirmed as anyone gets. Either I'm telling the truth about roleblocking you, in which case BrianMcQueso is mafia- you can't be unless halfpint is lying about being targeted, and why would she do that; or I'm lying about roleblocking you, in which case I'm the mafia anyway, since I'm lying. Therefore, it's either me or BrianMcQueso, and our best strategy is probably to lynch one of us today (randomly, unless we come up with a better method for figuring who's guilty), then the next tomorrow, for a town win since the mafia can kill at most one of the three essentially confirmed innocents.

[DarkLight140]

*sigh*

I should probably have targeted Dranko last night with my nonlethal target (search for mafia spy), claimed it was a foolish gamble to prove my innocence by having him not die and myself be seen, and killed csergogaby. We really should have been able to pull that off... argh. I really messed this one up.

[DarkLight140]

I know. Frankly, I kept targeting people I thought you'd watch in hopes that I would be seen.

Also, there were no successful doc protects until afer Dranko20 had claimed. I chose not to kill that night, because I felt I didn't want to risk being seen killing until I found the mafia spy, and I might very well be seen looking for him on the nights while I was stalling. It didn't work out quite as planned, though; I found brushhopper that night anyway, and Dranko20 acted more rashly than I would have, in his position, espicially given that you were essentially confirmed anyway and he'd protected you.

[DarkLight140]

I'd like to know that as well. While I do see how I made several errors in play, I would have said BrianMcQueso made just as many. I

really

don't see why Dranko20 was convinced I'd erred repeatedly and horribly.

[DarkLight140]

Oh? I'd gotten some in a different game as a doc, so it seemed reasonable to assume...

And besides, I'd meant to say my revised version initially. I thought saying "I misspoke" would come out as scummier, though.