Mafia #100 - Game Over

[Amished]

Nothing, but Deathnote is still scum.

Vote: DeathNote

[Amished]

EBWOP: Obviously the Sicilians shot Kise, so either way Hewitt shot Sicilian scum, and doesn't matter which one as he was successful. I was suspicious of his claim before the Night, but now I think he's pretty much confirmed, and BM not dying seems like WIFOM to get us to not believe him on the scum part. They easily could've went after Hewitt to make him (BM) look more scummy. However, everybody is alive, so I'm considering them all clear.

~Jordan`,
Battle Mage,
Benmage,
DeathNote,
dramonic,
hewitt,
Knight of Cydonia,
randomlunatic,
RayFrost,

Slicey

Amished

Mod: You might wanna fix that :whistles:

,
Snow White

More than 6 or so scum seems imbalanced, so I wouldn't doubt 2 scum groups of 3 and a vig, so be wary of other player interactions as well.

Majorly crossposted: I find DN scum because of ISO 4 and 5. If you can't see why he's scum from those of his, you're scum with him. 6 is a bogus retraction seeing that Hewitt will not get bandwagoned by other scum/townies so needs to hop off early.

[Amished]

Hmm, 2 vigs? 2 docs.... I'm leaning towards believing it, though then I think Sicilian's still have more people out there and we can look for possible connections to Qwints/Black Jinx.

[Amished]

Even throughout yesterday, this seemed like a setup to punish lazy assumptions with BM's claim through no pressure. 2 docs had been a lazy assumption that one of them is lying. A named scumgroup is a lazy assumption that there's more than one. Two vigs leads to a lazy assumption that one is an SK instead. So don't assume, look for scummy actions instead of being lazy

Also, BM > Bm, because Bm couldn't figure out that RayFrost was the other Vig with 912 as sole evidence.

Also, Ray, Hewitt is a known killing role (tubby confirmed watcher saw him shoot). He has no reason to lie about his kill as we all know he's doing it. Not the best idea you've had, but it was a nice try.

[Amished]

/slaps Bm

Lazy assumption that there's two scumgroups. Naming one isn't bastard modding, it's giving classification. There could easily be a big group out there.

[Amished]

/slaps Bm again

BM > Bm even more

[Amished]

Yes, and that's a lazy assumption which I've ranted about already today in the last half hour.

[Amished]

@Ray: Look at his response when you started asking about 2 vigs. He knew then because he asked if he could protect against multiple kills, and said that he was likely to protect you last night (1/3 chance). Fairly obvious.

@DN: Go to the bottom of the page, look at posts by all users and select yourself, then hit "GO". Your post subject 4, 5, and 6 all show you're obvscum to me.

[Amished]

EBWOP: It's called ISO because you're looking at somebody in ISOlation. Their posts only. BM referenced it earlier when going through his LoS.

[Amished]

Ben: Thoughts on DeathNote? (Stop ignoring him)

[Amished]

Why would you automatically vote him when there's plenty of possibilities?

No, it *was* a good find (thank you) because it (the vote) was scummy, and you hoped that a wagon could build on him before people could think about it so you could lynch a PR that was against you. Also, it wouldn't be a good find if you weren't scum.

[Amished]

Ben: Thoughts on DeathNote? (Stop ignoring him)

I opened the day thinking hiss reaction was peculiar. I need to iso him to get a full read. I recall his play definitely seemed subpar but I'd need to reread to determine if scummy.

I kinda had some agendas/things to ask today with others!

But i'm not ignorin him. Will iso soon, probably manyanana tis after 1 and I cant do heavy thinking atm.

1: What reaction did you think was peculiar?
2: Lies. It's only 20 after 12. Central time is the only one that counts. Lynch All Liars!

[Amished]

I felt Hewitt was scummy and the claim was kinda thrown together. From my notes, post 99 and 228 read as scum that I felt needed to be written down (I didn't make that many notes, and for him to be in is bad from my perspective). Gonna go back to find them and post them in a new post in a sec here.

There's no reason for BM to lie about a false investigation after we've gotten 3 scum in 2 days (there's no way that a mod would make that necessary for game balance, so we're nowhere near lylo).

Nicely done, BM.

Unvote
Vote: Hewitt

Also: note how DN needs to see if there's going to be a wagon on Hewitt before joining.

I would believe you BM but... well, you seem so wishy washy switching your claim like that. I need other people to post input before I make a decision.

Make your own decisions. Also, you don't need to vote to put pressure on him, with that kind of claim there was going to be plenty of pressure from everybody. Just vote for scum and we'll deal with you tomorrow.

@Ray: BM should have no reason to lie about having an investigation (his play yesterday with you being pro-town lines up perfectly with his claim for investigation then, so so far it's consistent) and therefore we have confirmed scum. In this game, I wish I was cop though. I want to investigate both KoC and DeathNote as DN is scummy, and magichands/KoC had a pretty hardcore chainsaw defending of DeathNote, while KoC made my one and only true scumtell in this game.

[Amished]

Hewitt's scummy comments that I had written down:

Well, I don't feel a desperate need to know :3

Personally, I'd say that Kise could be scum, but there's also a chance that he is paranoid/overeager townie of sort, while my read on BC is definitely scummy.

Wow less than a hundred posts in and you already think you've caught scum?

Why would a townie have need to be condescending like this? Town should keep options open and either agree or disagree with a case, not openly ridicule it when obviously the only way that Hewitt has role info is if he's scum. Clearly BC and Kise were both town, so as scum he can make Dram look worse later on if he finally comes around to go after scum. +town points for Dram as well from this in my eyes.

This is how I play. This feels more like a vote based on my playstyle rather than anything else.

Also, I have not cleared magic at all. Something was said earlier that makes me think he is town.

Yeah, if your playstyle is steamrolling the town then yes that's exactly what I'm voting you for. And why would you even say that? You have NO idea if magichands is town or not because it's 10 pages in unless you have inside info.

I'm not pressing the modkill issue . . . I just don't understand his cases, and it sounds like he's using the rules as a cop out.

Also, for the record, I believe that Blood Covenant is town, but I think that if Konowa flips scum, Death Note is more clear.

Do any of you get the concept that you cannot possibly know whether players are town this early in the game?

Konowa- You're rationale doesn't make any sense at all.

Very similar to 99. Ridiculing people for having strong reads on people. There are times when this works extremely well, and is absolutely correct. No comment on whether he feels the people in question are town or scum, just ridiculing people for having reads. Not pro-town behavior.

Mod: KoC is listed as voting for Hewitt, but the number is wrong (is 1, should be 2, but now 3 with me voting for Hewitt as well

X:

Damn my math skills! And I expect to major in it, too...

[Amished]

Yeah, but you ninja'd me, like the Japan location person you are.

[Amished]

INVESTIGATION IMMUNE NKPROOF SK!!!!!! OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

.....

[Amished]

DAMN! I guess we should all quit now as we obviously can't kill you. GG Ray, GG. Very well played.

[Amished]

Which would be ....

[Amished]

Hmm, we've gone through N2, we need to NoLynch until D11! And jailkeep/roleblock all of you (clones included).

[Amished]

Hmmm, BM, can you transform back into doc and keep us from being killed by Ray?

[Amished]

I'd like to hear more from everybody (currently Jordan and random haven't posted today yet, and that was your first, Snow); but at this point there's not much else to discuss IMO.

[Amished]

... What would lead you to think that, Dram? I realize it won't be a case, but why are you going all the way to a role-cop, and to have him be aligned with the corsican's (who we're not even sure are in the game)

[Amished]

What happens if Hewitt is an SK? Ray being Vig and Hewitt being either SK or oppo alignment scum makes perfect sense.

Also, I don't recall BM putting GF WIFOM into it as a GF was killed, making that role a real possibility.

If BM is wrong about hewitt would open up a lot of eyes to wonder why he's wrong. He's obviously not paranoid. If insane, we'll test it, and anything else (random) we lynch him for lying, if he's not killed by that point.

Also, confirming people as town shows that you were planning/had the result for the claim early on.

Tell me, why do you not see Hewitt as ScumgroupB?

[Amished]

EBWOP: Also, insane cop with a GF role is bastardization, as the GF would get a guilty result as the whole point of a GF is to show up innocent to investigations.

[Amished]

@KoC: Do you feel that "huge scum-slip" (in your words) would be enough to vote for Dram if it wasn't for the cop guilty?

[Amished]

I see a very easy out that's not nearly as complicated as you make it out to be, Dram; but we'll see what Ray has to say.

[Amished]

FFS BM, that was a poor play and you know it. What do you think would happen with a cop guilty result? Especially in these circumstances, where a scum fakeclaiming would have plenty of time to get lynched through false investigations. Therefore it's very likely to believe you, and if you hadn't come back we would've lynched Hewitt (Snow White had an opportunity) and had he not turned scum, we would've either assumed you're insane (lynching Ray) and getting rid of two killing roles that we can pretty much keep in check throughout the game, or we would've lynched you for "fake-claiming", losing us a cop.

Unvote

I don't even know what to say to you.

[Amished]

But you said yourself scum had a good chance at hammering at that point, would've made it just as likely to end the day.

Also:

Vote: Hewitt

This is ridiculous. At the very least, Hewitt is scum. Which makes me happy, because we did well to out him yesterday. Smile

Hewitt, the issue is, you WEREN'T telling the truth. You were lying. Which is why you need to be lynched today.

Lol, allow me to rephrase more bluntly.

I'm the Cop. Who do you think i investigated last night? Wink

Confirm Vote: Hewitt

Although that means im betting my life on Hewitt being scum.

What would possibly make anybody believe you didn't investigate Hewitt last night?

Also, why do you think DN is town? Especially after your stance on him D1?

[Amished]

Probably cause it's battle being battle.

BattleM, are you sure this time? Bm is at L-3 and I don't want you freaking out making me want to hack X's pm's and give me a dayvig pointed at you.

[Amished]

Oh, right, I kept thinking 7 to lynch for some reason. Apparently we Amish haven't invented counting yet >.<

[Amished]

Or we can lynch you (Bm) to test him (BM), then see if we need to lynch him. Also, if there's some sort of protective role, who's to say they won't take a side in the battle? It's not an automatic that one that survives is scum OR town.

[Amished]

Discounting a roleblocker?

[Amished]

Or if you don't think he's actually a vig, you can kill an anti-town killing role, allowing us to get more chances to hit scum with ourselves...

Also, Benmage, calm down. You're just mad cause you can't hammer yourself to limit discussion.

[Amished]

Vote: Benmage

[Amished]

BM: You're having a harder time keeping your role straight as you were looking damn near sold on Ray being scum, though you claim to have investigated him N1. You are really a Jester, aren't you?

[Amished]

So he's adding wifom of stuff he doesn't know to help the town. Got it.

[Amished]

You do that, I won't.

[Amished]

Bring it on. I'm an anti-black hole.

[Amished]

Exactly. What's space or a spaceship? All I know is the sun giving our crops energy to grow.

[Amished]

He's trying to catch up, so he needs to keep track of any BM subtractions.

gogo Jeopardy theme! I wager 1001 dollars to win out!

[Amished]

Cubed or nothing

X:

Editing this into the latest post. Sorry for all of you impatient people out there, but I want to catch up on sleep tonight, so I'm not staying up for another 1.5 hours to do the reveal. I'll do it first thing in the morning.

[Amished]

Yes, begone, benmage scum! And take your partners with you!

[Amished]

EBWOP: +.1 to Bm for pity.

[Amished]

Vote Hewitt

It's pretty obvious what happened last night for Hewitt, and night 1 regarding BattleMage.

ANYWAYS

@Deathnote: Why do you think Snowwhite is the best lynch for today? Obviously hewitt is scum, but you think Snowwhite would be a better lynch than obv-scum? I don't follow you at all.

[Amished]

omfg. /facepalm

Unvote
Vote: Hewitt

(Yes, I realize I was voting Hewitt before, but he still deserves it)

[Amished]

@SW: Post your breadcrumbs.

@DN: Ask the mod if you can see multiple targets on a player you're watching.

[Amished]

Or either of you were Jailkept. Anyways, that's not the pressing matter right now, I want to hear more from both SW and DN.

[Amished]

Unvote:
Vote: Snow White

[Amished]

You would believe claimed scum? ......

[Amished]

I was talking to DN.

[Amished]

Not really other than BM getting a guilty on Bm when BM should've gotten an innocent by normal cop standards (I thought Godfathers are all inv. immune). As such, him getting an innocent on Rayfrost N1 would then make him more likely to be scum through BM's investigation.

[Amished]

Well, I've been on vacation (and I thought I posted to that effect, but maybe not). Nothing Dram has said today convinces me of anything *but* his (drams) guilt, and the fact that he's trying to come up with wild theories to defend Hewitt makes me more likely to think Hew is scum as well.

Also, apparently nobody believes that there's a jailkeeper in the game, as a target of rayfrost would have accounted for all the claimed blocks last night. Anyways, iirc, Hew is at L-2, and with him looking extremely scummy, I don't care if he's only at L-1 at this point.

Vote: Hewitt

[Amished]

Dram, I'm not worried about you being right, as BM investigated Ray and got an innocent. Fool.

[Amished]

Why do you want to skip twilight?

[Amished]

@Dram: Why would scum be able to out the last scum of an opposing faction? Especially when all the other mafiates are either godfather or goon status? Why would a scum be a townie role backup?

[Amished]

How did he know that Snow killed BM then?

[Amished]

*sigh*

I have a very definite thought on what I think DN's result will be, but I do not want to give him ideas if I'm wrong.

The only scenario in which I can envision being wrong is if DN was scum watcher originally and not a backup. However, looking at the time when he claimed and the circumstances, I don't believe he's lying. One more thing that really sways my opinion of DN to confirmed town is that the only way that he would have known that Snow White killed BM was if Hewitt role-copped Snow White and pieced it together. Otherwise, he's been open with his tracks (I believe, I need to review who he's said he's watched). He's then always been a roleblocker, but with the chances that I've given him to claim jailkeeper (which is generally considered a pro-town role); I think he's just a pro-town watcher. A watcher backup isn't a claim I would especially expect from scum either; hewitt would've been the only one that I'd believe coming up with that. Furthermore, I remembered that DN basically outted Hewitt as scum, and at that point, there's no reason for him to do so as a scum role.

Ray's pro-town vig (so far 4 Sicilians, with that traitor) and 2 American's are dead. There's still 2 kills, so there's a 3rd American. (7 scum with the third american, 20 players total. That's *over* 33%, and I refuse to believe that there would be 8 scum in a 20 person setup (40%? just no.)

That leaves GLaDOS. I'll admit I haven't looked at her at all, but PoE says she's the last remaining scum. I don't think I've seen her take much of a stance that wasn't generally agreed with, but again, this is based on recollection.

Vote: GLaDOS

[Amished]

Hmm, that's a very good point DN. GLaDOS's suggestion to lynch and if failed have vig kill is even worse in that light.

[Amished]

The only thing preventing me from believing you, GLaDOS (and I'm sure that there will be more coming up) is the fact that almost every mod I've seen allows the last scum to perform all their actions, including roleblocking + killing. Unless you can provide compelling evidence to back up exclusive night actions, I'm trying to figure out how else I can see this game.

Unvote

I wanted to see your reaction to a quick vote, but you basically ignored it. Damn I gotta think =\

[Amished]

I tend to think if the American Mafia had a Role-Blocker, they would have blocked Battle Mage on Night Two after he had claimed Doctor, such that Battle Mage ultimately would not have even had a result on Benmage for Day Three. I also do not think an American Mafia Doctor is likely, though I suppose it is more probably than American Mafia Role-Blocker.

Two questions:
1) What happened to the other American Mafia kill N3
2) This makes a lot of sense for N2. Risking a claimed doc protect is pointless, why would you need to block anybody else? Clearly Ray was not blocked, which would've been the other obvious choice. Why are you changing what you thought now?

[Amished]

Well, I'm convinced. I retract 1407, mostly because of 1252.

Rayfrost, I have a question. When you receive your results, do they say you are blocked or that your kill just didn't go through?

The reason I ask is because the Roleblocker didn't target you last night, he targeted me. I got no results yet there was only one kill. This could mean several different things but my first instinct was that I was blocked and hewitt/Rayfrost was protected. (Meaning that the other mafia members have two power roles, blocker/doctor)

What is yall's opinion on the matter?

Bolded mine.

Why only ask Ray when both Hewitt and Ray have claimed to be roleblocked? The only reason to only ask Ray is because he knows that Hewitt has never been roleblocked.

I'm pretty sure that the American Mafia and Snow White both killed Battle Mage that night, DN lied about his result that it was only SW (because of Hewitt's role, the Americans would know that SW was the last one). When only 1 kill showed up (since they blocked Ray, that much is clear) they knew that SW killed BM as well. To get rid of SW during the day when Hewitt was an obvious lynch for D4 when we got SW instead.

Vote: DeathNote

[Amished]

lol ninja'd. Good call, GLaDOS, sorry for suspecting you right away. I get led around way too much by claimed power roles

[Amished]

Clearly, and dram was a good choice because I know I would've pushed for his lynch today had you not.

@Ray: Gut read, nothing based in the thread, who do you think is scum out of the three of us?

[Amished]

Out of pure self-arrogance, mine is exactly the same as yours, but with you in my spot. Early on I thought DN was scum, and it was only BM's insistence, especially after his death, (and the revealing of SW) that made me doubt myself.

With the signs pointing towards DN lying as scum, what further information are you hoping to gain from apparently waiting for his response?

[Amished]

EBWOP: If DN turns scum, I want to officially note that I was right about Benmage, Hewitt and DN being scum (but wrong about KoC). 75% isn't too shabby.

[Amished]

That would make an 8th scum though?

[Amished]

Good deal. The claim fell apart when Ray was allowed to vig (clearly they needed to reduce numbers) and claimed blocked. I think I would've blocked Ray, tried to survive for a day with a fake investigation and go from there.

Starting off a game I suck at, but replacing in I have accuracy of over 50% in my last few games as town (in games ended/revealed so far.) Hmm, any suggestions on how to work on starting a game off and finding scum that way?

[Amished]

You were looking kinda suspicious with putting suspicion on Ray for no reason though...

[Amished]

The only problem that I saw was the overabundance of scum. We needed those crosskills to come to an endgame like this. We had 2 mislynches. Our vig was unsuccessful except for one (and blocked another time) which is about what I'd expect from a vig, but if it wasn't for Hewitt flat out shooting two Sicilians, I think it was unwinnable for the town.

Which brings me to my next point: Hewitt, did you know they were scum, or did you think they were power roles? Tubby watching you shoot somebody was a big nail in your coffin regarding that, but you could've gone for other scummy behavior if you really thought they were scum. This easily could've led to an endgame where you had the power roles and just outpowered the Sicilians rather than anything else.

[Amished]

Ok, so say we lynch Dram then on what would've been D5.

Twilight would've been DN, GLaDOS, RayFrost and Me. If ray doesn't kill who DN kills, (and isn't DN) it's an auto-win for scum. So RayFrost would not have shot (should not have).

Who would you have killed the next night of Ray, GLaDOS and me? Either way, Ray was confirmed town, I knew today that we had a vote to play with (8 scum thing) so I wasn't worried about voting GLaDOS. You would've had to kill Ray, and by then I would've seen that your results didn't line up with what should've happened.

[Amished]

Gah, what made you say DN was not scum? He committed one of my few solid scumtells (that's pretty accurate) and you saying that as cop (even though your investigations were all accounted for) really made me doubt myself.

[Amished]

Yeah, what happened for me on D2 was that I still thought 2 docs, 2 vigs, etc.. was valid (I might have to do that as a game one time..) and I didn't see the SW scumminess yet. So I dismissed those two possibilities and went after who I thought was still scum (DN).

Any scums wanna post their QT?

Also, why was KoC NK'd? I now understand why I wasn't (being known vanilla, thanks hewitt for the respect for investigating me ); but I didn't understand a KoC kill as he was one of my top suspects for one small thing he said almost immediately (defense of DN D1 when I had DN pegged as scum; so chainsaw defense..) I'm pretty sure nobody else really saw that, but his death helped *me* out a lot, and not something that was easily predictable IMO.

[Amished]

Well, your sig is WIFOM, so if you're scum, we shouldn't believe you anyways.

[Amished]

Why were we killed N1?

we actually thought you were town and that you were the biggest threat to us. it was a shock when you flipped mafia.

Now I'm really curious to the scum QT ._.

[Amished]

no QT's Mostly looking for the American one, not sure how much was actually said in the Sicilian one...

[Amished]

i think killing KoC is the best idea, i don't think amished is smart enough. anything that'll keep us both alive today is the uh best course of action i think.

No hard feelings, you had to do what you had to do. Killing a known VT wouldn't have been a smart idea though.

[Amished]

Ok, just looking at the set-up now:

Town:
1 cop
1 vig
1 doc (Ok, doc/cop = powerful, doc/vig slightly less so)
1 Watcher
9 VT's

vs.
Sicilian
1 Inv. immune Godfather
2 goons
1 traitor (all intents and purposes another goon that could be self-killed)

vs.
Americans
1 nk. immune godfather
1 rolecop
1 roleblocker

Bear with me, we can't assume *anything* with the town PRs due to inv. immune, nk immune and a roleblocker on the scum side, 3 kills N1 could all hit them.

T A S
13 3 4 (counting goon) GAME START
12 3 4 (D1, mislynch)
9 3 4 (N1, assuming all pro-town kills)
8 3 4 (D2, mislynch)
5 3 4 (N2, pro-town kills)

N2 the town barely outnumber *one* scumgroup. I'm surprised as hell that the town won in this setup; though if it was open, it'd be balanced (I'd think) since scum need to try to avoid known power roles and counterclaiming is super dangerous then. That's still the only way that I'd see this working out particularly well if this setup were to be run again.

[Amished]

Ok, but you decimated them *on accident* I don't expect games to be fair or win on accident.

Also, we had 2 pro-town power roles get 2 scum (both from Americans, oddly enough). I'll extend my scenario to include this for you, calling a vig get one and a lynch get one (which is better for the town than what our 2 lynch one did)

Currently at: Night2

T A S
5 3 4 <- 7 scum to 5 town, 2 mislynches. That's a little ridiculous.
5 2 4 (D3, lynch one American that was found out.)
3 1 4 (N4, Vig kills other outed american scum, Americans kill Town, Sicilians kill Town)

By Day 4, the Sicilians basically outnumber the rest of the town combined. Nothing can really prevent that, and the game's over provided the traitor claims what they are. Without the mod being clear on what happens when 50% is scum, or how traitors work, or how "deadline" situations are with only half votes they can all vote for the same player and as long as the S-scum are on before all of the town, they'll push whoever to 4 votes and win.

I'm just saying that it was a lot of scum for a 20 person game. Regardless of power roles as they go both ways, especially the americans who can nullify a vig in two ways (1 NK-immune + roleblocker); can kill a cop with a claimed doc protection and a watcher watching the doc to not die and then get the doc under a lot of suspicion. Any claiming is suicide.

On a related note, why would you believe a 2nd self protecting doc? I would've killed him instantly because of that. It would've saved you Benmage; and a watcher was dead (so only a tracker would help). Unless I'm misremembering the order of the nights and the claim time.. He still claimed doc and lived the next day to out Ben, so yea, that's definitely what happened. At least roleblock him so he wouldn't have gotten a result.