Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World (Draft TIME)

For archiving signup threads after their corresponding games are complete.
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Post Post #4 (isolation #0) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 8:06 am

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Confirming, hi everyone.
SpyreX wrote:Its fruit VENDOR. Sheesh. And just /in you sillies.
Not if you're going to be busy and lurk!
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Post Post #7 (isolation #1) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 9:44 am

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I'm town this game. So, I am going to start playing now.

Janitor is a pretty potent role for scum as it opens up more fakeclaiming options and deprives the town of information as alignment and role don't flip. Along with the vigs and redirector, these roles are the likeliest to cripple the town, and any townies in the top 10 slots should consider going for these roles, because if they fall into the hands of scum, it's a pretty big bonus for them. Even if your selection doesn't get you the role, it's valuable information to narrow down where that role could possibly be if it looks like it's being used in a pro-scum way.

The last PYP game many players claimed not to fully understand how the draft system works, so I urge those still unsure about things to ask questions.
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Post Post #24 (isolation #2) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 9:40 pm

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PranaDevil wrote:I'm not fully sure how the draft system works in so much as the number picking stuff, but as long as I know what I'm dealing with once the list is up, that wouldn't bother me so much, as I highly doubt the mod's going to screw about with the system anyways.
It's difficult to understand it first shot, I think, and I have trouble explaining it any more eloquently than it is already described. You're basically trying to win the draft by guessing the lowest unique number (that's your X number). The Y number is just used to separate ties. Maybe the draft from the last game will help show how it's decided.
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Post Post #27 (isolation #3) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 10:41 pm

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I helped design the set-up this time. The main thing we were trying to fix from last time was the badass power combination for scum. It still exists this game to an extent, which opens up creative scum gambits - I can see a few decent combinations of roles that I won't say until the draft has been concluded. But there was 1-2 too many really pro-scum roles last time.

Masons also add a bit of power to the town, which should at some point in the game give us a confirmed innocent to work with which would be nice. Info roles like weak doctor and gunsmith are new inclusions which should also help the town. I expect a more balanced game this time, due to the very powerful roles being either watered down or removed.
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Post Post #36 (isolation #4) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:04 am

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RedCoyote wrote:I'd like to sign up... but I think I've just got too much going on right now.

That and the spanking Hoops and the rest of the scum team gave us last time still smarts.
I'm town this time, so you have a 16/21 shot of winning.
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Post Post #40 (isolation #5) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 7:45 am

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Socrates wrote:Does the fruit vendor role have a purpose other than potentially sabotaging the users own team?
Yeah, it gives away fruit.
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Post Post #106 (isolation #6) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:57 pm

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Original Roll String: 1d15
1 15-Sided Dice: (13) = 13


Original Roll String: 1d15
1 15-Sided Dice: (9) = 9



Personally, I don't think this is as much of a breaking strategy as you think it is. This makes the draft entirely random, which completely eliminates any possibilities for number analysis. I'm actually kind of annoyed this went through without anyone thinking about this. Because the benefit of scum
maybe
doing a little bit worse, is NOT worth the information we can glean from predicting their placements in the draft.

This is a suboptimal play, but it is too late now. Nice one.
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Post Post #109 (isolation #7) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:17 pm

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Fate is right - this isn't going to work if only half the people here do it. Scum are talking right now, and could easily be saying for 1-2 or 3-4 of them to go along with the strategy, because an entirely random draft isn't that bad of a trade-off (I would suggest it's better for them) to look town early in the game. I do not know how you can possibly predict if number rollers are more likely to be town or not, maybe the first one, two or three. That is it. And that isn't worth eliminating number analysis over.
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Post Post #110 (isolation #8) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:19 pm

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Socrates wrote: You do realize that if random placement actually favored the scum team, they could just roll their own dice in private, right?

Also, while this strategy isn't going to actually break the game (the smalltown idea would do that better), I think you overestimate the power of analyzing the draft positions.
No, you don't realize how powerful neighbourhoods can be. When you lock scum into certain positions, it is amazingly helpful at endgame.

What the hell does the first point even mean? I don't understand it.
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Post Post #113 (isolation #9) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:34 pm

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Socrates wrote: The fact that you don't understand my first point just underlines that you don't understand the flaw in your argument.

If you want to actually make the argument that your analysis is dangerous enough that it is a bigger concern than trying to minimize scum placement in the draft, then guess what? The scum can trade their placement in the draft in order to subvert your analysis! You yourself claim that their wouldn't be much of a cost to it.

(And no, a simple spread of 2-2-1 would be enough to render your analysis useless.)
Okay, I get your point now. But it's completely twisting the fabric of what of I initially said/meant. Random placement if
everyone else
in the game does it is not a bad result for scum (or even half the players). Scum choosing to do random on their own isn't beneficial when town are trying to win the draft.

Scum wouldn't spread 2-2-1, although we'll never know now. If we played normally and for some reason scum thought that would be a genius, productive idea, then they are very likely almost guarenteeing town 9/10 top picks, which I expect our roles to catch them before they can reap any benefits from that anyway.

Moot point now, seeing as we're going with this. Just not very happy we're sacrificing fun for something I don't think is beneficial.
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Post Post #121 (isolation #10) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 11:07 pm

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Lol, I am going to lose the draft. Socrates, your plan was doomed to begin with, as it relied on getting full support from the town in the sign-up thread, in less than 48 hours. You imposed that this was optimum town strategy, which is debatable, and now we've got caught halfway in between with little chance for number analysis, and not much gained from your plan.

I don't know why I consented, but you can't expect people to blindly accept what you say, rather than debating it's outcome. And if there was to be debate, then 48 hours is not enough time.
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Post Post #123 (isolation #11) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 12:28 am

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I'm stupid.
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Post Post #124 (isolation #12) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 12:30 am

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But, I'm okay with being vanilla, so all is fine.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #13) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 5:22 pm

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Yep, me and my meta tells.
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Post Post #147 (isolation #14) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 5:42 pm

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MINDGAMES
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Post Post #149 (isolation #15) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 6:01 pm

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I could have sworn there were more 9's.
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Post Post #150 (isolation #16) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 6:08 pm

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Fate, Keyblade, why switch from what the dice rolled?

~~
Pomegranate wrote:Oh!

I gave in my numbers already, without consulting the thread beforehand. Maybe it's possible to change them, I don't know.
What was your last set of numbers?

~~
Parama wrote:
Faraday wrote:Parama = town.
I claimed scum though .-.

Anyways. I submitted 9 and 6 as my numbers. I may or may not change them depending on my dice role results.
Original Roll String: 1d15 (STATIC)
1 15-Sided Dice: (7) = 7

Original Roll String: 1d15 (STATIC)
1 15-Sided Dice: (11) = 11


Third dice roll to decide if I am changing or not:
Original Roll String: 1d7 (STATIC)
1 7-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Not telling what the results of this one mean.
What's the point if dice rolling if you can decide if you want it or not?
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Post Post #154 (isolation #17) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 6:47 pm

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The dice roll was largely pointless, but it would have been even more so if everyone just bailed from it (especially without announcing). You should have said you were changing, rather than just doing it. Show me your crumbs.

Also, 12 different numbers were picked this time (only 9 were picked last time). You would assume scum spread out over 5 different numbers, although it's hard to pinpoint where because of so many single/double X numbers.
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Post Post #160 (isolation #18) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:11 pm

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Thanks for the wifom, Fate.

Also, the draft works like this;

1) All players that picked a single number (2, 10, 11, 12, 13) go first and get ordered from lowest to highest.
2) All players that share a number with one other person (1, 3, 5, 6, 7) go next, and get ordered from lowest to highest.
3) All players that share a number with two other people (4) go next and get ordered from lowest to highest.
4) All players that share a number with three other people (9) go next and get ordered from lowest to highest.
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Post Post #164 (isolation #19) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:30 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I just want to point out Gunsmith and Weak Doctor are good town roles that should be considered somewhere around the top/middle.

Also, if a townie goes for Janitor and gets it, they need to claim in their first post Day 1, so we know scum doesn't have it.
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Post Post #170 (isolation #20) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:46 pm

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Weak doctor should be used as a town confirmer, not a protector imo. There are better roles for masons.

Valid points against the Janitor claiming.
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Post Post #174 (isolation #21) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 10:01 pm

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imo, at least 2 of the top 7 are scum.
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Post Post #176 (isolation #22) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 12:59 am

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You didn't choose your numbers, though. Or were you going to change them?
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Post Post #178 (isolation #23) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 1:06 am

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Parama wrote:I didn't choose my numbers, it's true.
For those who care about my 3rd dice roll: If the number was prime, I wouldn't change; not prime, I would change. And 1 isn't a prime number as far as I know. Glad I changed but it didn't help much.
That doesn't fly with me. You could have said below 3 I change, above 4 I stay or whatever the hell you wanted. You rolled, and if you got bad numbers you were going to bail out. Don't you see how this doesn't work?
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Post Post #179 (isolation #24) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 1:08 am

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Wait, you say you're glad you changed? You rolled 7, 11 and that's what it shows on the draft too. Explain please...
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Post Post #181 (isolation #25) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 1:23 am

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Parama wrote:
Original Roll String: 1d15 (STATIC)
1 15-Sided Dice: (7) = 7

Original Roll String: 1d15 (STATIC)
1 15-Sided Dice: (11) = 11


Third dice roll to decide if I am changing or not:
Original Roll String: 1d7 (STATIC)
1 7-Sided Dice: (1) = 1
SpyreX wrote: 7,11 Parama
Why didn't you change?
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Post Post #183 (isolation #26) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 1:45 am

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But you left a clause in your dice roll to change again if you didn't want whatever came up.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #27) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 2:06 am

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Parama wrote:Third roll was to decide whether I was going to keep my original numbers or change to the dice roll numbers. Did I not make that clear?
No, it wasn't clear, because you didn't disclose the meaning of your third roll. Now you are saying it meant prime numbers, but if you wanted, you could have made it mean something else. That is the point.
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Post Post #187 (isolation #28) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 3:38 am

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Zang is town.
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Post Post #189 (isolation #29) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 4:51 am

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There is no wifom involved. The only point in doing it was so you could change if you rolled shit numbers.
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Post Post #203 (isolation #30) » Thu Apr 15, 2010 8:03 pm

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Swap Fate for Parama and Zang for sorasgoof, and you have a pretty good list.
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Post Post #205 (isolation #31) » Thu Apr 15, 2010 8:23 pm

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As scum last game, our team recognised that putting 1 as your second number is optimal strategy because it's only used to differentiate in ties, so we conciously chose to scramble our second number to avoid this sort of speculation.

Know what the weirdest thing from the draft was? Single numbers on 10, 11, 12, 13 - there is no way scum put all their eggs in one basket and decided to go in sequence. I can see maybe one or two going high (gut feeling is Pom). But I also can't see town luckily picking those 4 numbers in a row without any scum there. The odds on that is quite low.

If there is scum in the 9 pool, there will only be one, but I think it's more probably there is none. This means that 5 scum must have put their X number on something 1-7 which seems unlikely, as I think the natural inclination is to spread out to a high number or two just in case. Out of the 10, 11, 12, 13 Pom is likeliest to be scum, and I probably won't be open to lynching anyone in the triple or quadruple pool, or maybe even the doubles.
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