Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World (Draft TIME)

[Socrates]

My presence has been requested.

/in

[Socrates]

Does the fruit vendor role have a purpose other than potentially sabotaging the users own team?

[Socrates]

Oh, hey. I just realized how to use it productively. Never mind.

[Socrates]

I'm town. Yay!

Incidentally, I am still of the opinion that this setup favors a town massclaim. Day 2 is probably the optimal time to do so. Maybe Day 3.

Also, I feel like we should discuss pro-town number strategy in this thread before we need to get our numbers in, but I haven't thought about it enough to actually have any conclusions to share.

[Socrates]

Maybe we should publicly roll dice to pick our numbers in order to circumvent scum co-ordination?

[Socrates]

We need more discussion on the subject of breaking the game. I want this game won and done before the game even starts.

[Socrates]

As a vote of confidence, I will go first with the dice rolling:

Original Roll String: 1d15

1 15-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

Original Roll String: 1d15

1 15-Sided Dice: (15) = 15

[Socrates]

If we want to do this we need to have it done ASAP before the last slot comes and Spy sets up the draft, right?
SO: After randomized numbers, instead of massclaim, could designated choosing of role be a good idea? (i.e. first draft pick picks odd vig, second picks even vig, and stuff like that).

We should have 24 hours available to us before we need to get the numbers in so that the scum and masons can talk.

Re: designated roles, I need to think about that. We would essentially be turning the game into a Smalltown setup (I believe that is the name of that style of game).

[Socrates]

One thing that it would do is maximize the number of roles in the game.

We would also know who has the anti-town roles so they can't be used in a pro-scum fashion.

[Socrates]

I didn't dice roll but I can tell you the numbers I submitted if you guys want me to.

Spyrex should allow you to change your numbers before the deadline, so there is no reason not to dice roll.

[Socrates]

Hmm... last time I saw someone poopoo a strategy in the name of fun they were scum. Fate will probably have my vote when the game begins, I don't care about your disclaimers.

If it isn't forbidden then we should kept talking. More dice rolling too. I am officially pro the small-town idea. If we can get more of a concensus on doing it then I will mock up a list we could go down. If we don't do that then I think we should mass-claim day 1.

[Socrates]

Problem is we have such a short window I doubt we'll even be able to get all the players to die roll much less smalltown it. Scum can also just lurk and say "oops didn't read the thread before I picked my numbers and now it is set."

When in reality they can just lurk, see all the numbers being chosen, and then work around that to get a much higher position in the draft.

Yes, posting in thread and actually doing the dice role is a definite town tell. (there, now I got the scum to do it.)

But of course I'm obvscum for openly debating against the idea. Good D1 info lynch for sure.

Yep.

[Socrates]

Therefore posting my die roles I am now town.

Apology accepted.

If I say yes, will your buddies come and do the dice roll?

[Socrates]

Keyblade, are you going to actually do the dice roll?

[Socrates]

I'm not going to roll, I fell Content with my previous numbers but I will tell them if you want.

No, seriously. Why aren't you doing it?

[Socrates]

Because scum are doing it, obviously.

That makes perfect sense.

[Socrates]

Because I don't really see the point, I thought it was just so we knew the numbers before the draft which is why I said I would tell them. They are 9,2

The point is that the scum team has 24 hours to co-ordinate their pick choices before the game starts in order ensure they get a better position in the draft order, while the town will at best do random. Forcing every player to pick via die roll undoes all that and makes it so that the scum team can do no better than random in the draft, by making them actually do random.

Just telling us what you picked serves no pro-town purpose that I can think of.

[Socrates]

Well join the ****ing 9 club then.

Yay for getting to be at the bottom of the draft...

Hey, if he rolls the dice he might get a better number.

ROLL! THOSE! DICE!

[Socrates]

AHA!

YOU AGREE THAT UNLESS EVERY SINGLE PLAYER DICE ROLLS IN THREAD THE POINT IS DEFEATED!

HOHOHOHOHO

Hardly. If every player that rolled a dice is at the bottom of the draft order, guess what the scum did and where we can find them?

[Socrates]

Um, at the #1 slot choosing Cop?

BAD DUM CHING!

Yep. And then they get their head put in a noose.

[Socrates]

Original Roll String: 1d15 (STATIC)

1 15-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

Original Roll String: 1d15 (STATIC)

1 15-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

Personally, I don't think this is as much of a breaking strategy as you think it is. This makes the draft entirely random, which completely eliminates any possibilities for number analysis. I'm actually kind of annoyed this went through without anyone thinking about this. Because the benefit of scum

maybe

doing a little bit worse, is NOT worth the information we can glean from predicting their placements in the draft.

This is a suboptimal play, but it is too late now. Nice one.

You do realize that if random placement actually favored the scum team, they could just roll their own dice in private, right?

Also, while this strategy isn't going to actually break the game (the smalltown idea would do that better), I think you overestimate the power of analyzing the draft positions.

[Socrates]

You do realize that if random placement actually favored the scum team, they could just roll their own dice in private, right?

Also, while this strategy isn't going to actually break the game (the smalltown idea would do that better), I think you overestimate the power of analyzing the draft positions.

No, you don't realize how powerful neighbourhoods can be. When you lock scum into certain positions, it is amazingly helpful at endgame.

What the hell does the first point even mean? I don't understand it.

The fact that you don't understand my first point just underlines that you don't understand the flaw in your argument.

If you want to actually make the argument that your analysis is dangerous enough that it is a bigger concern than trying to minimize scum placement in the draft, then guess what? The scum can trade their placement in the draft in order to subvert your analysis! You yourself claim that their wouldn't be much of a cost to it.

(And no, a simple spread of 2-2-1 would be enough to render your analysis useless.)

[Socrates]

/frustration

What I wanted to happen has happened, but I don't have the endurance nor the charisma for the next step. I kinda regret joining this game because I REALLY don't have the energy to deal with mafia right now.

Catching scum is easy. Convincing the other people that I am not an arrogant madman is the hard part.

Going into the draft, my reads:

probable Town:
Porkens
mb
parama
Elli
faraday

Comfortable with but not willing to declare town:
Zang
12Keyblade
Pomegranate

Willing to lynch:
Paranadevil
Fate

Keeping an eye upon:
Sando

How the draft shakes out will tell us whether or not there is a high density of scum within the lurkers.

I have a meta tell on Hoopla that I have developed since I have last played with her. She came

this

close to dropping it, but the unique circumstances of this game make me indecisive.

[Socrates]

The response I expected.

*thoughtful*

[Socrates]

Yay for being marginalized by bitter sarcasm.

Serial, I was invited to play in this game by Hoopla (something I am fairly sure she won't do again any time soon ). Did she invite you as well? I won't have a problem with you not answering this question if you feel that it is outside the confines of the game.

How does being the fruit vendor confirm someone as town in any way?

[Socrates]

Serial, I was invited to play in this game by Hoopla (something I am fairly sure she won't do again any time soon ). Did she invite you as well?

I think you might be overestimating any personal feelings there. No, Hoopla didn't invite me, Sando let me know there was another PYP (I was in the first one and enjoyed it and Spyrex is a champion so I said yes.)

My only two games at the moment are Spyrex and Hoopla mods, my mafia time is a little lower than it used to be.

Sando invited you? Huh. Thank you for answering.

I just noticed something that heavily undermines the weight of what I was thinking about when I asked you that question, and I have decided to sit on it for now until I can get some more data, especially since it is a tad bit on the tin foil side anyway.