NY 120: Flash mafia 2. GAME OVER

[Battousai]

Still reading through. I xpected to be NK'd, so not too far in. When I get a bit more later, I'll post something of content.

[Battousai]

Ok, looks like this is lylo, so I'll cut my short read even shorter and show you what I have:

Untrod → MBF: I believe scum vote for scum in RVS, and this is the only pair of votes in RVS (before people started posting semi-serious votes) in which both pairs are unflipped (I'd say at least 30% chance at least one of these two would be scum)

40) parama strawman's the both votes on him (though the second maybe closer to truth, the first has a reason) -scum points
42) volkan picks up on it +town points
45) parama claims poro should be voting him (though the only reason why I can see parama would think that is because parama is voting poro. Maybe a bit of a slip as he finds his own vote scummy). Though this also doesn't make sense in the fact that he seemed upset that he was being wagoned in the first place -scum points
52) jdodge (ythill) agrees with me on parama +town points
55) budja (IS) one liners are bad mkay? -scum points
64) parama see 55 -scum points
68) MBF soft claims/implies SK -null points but pointed out for immediate responses
74) fishy makes good point against predecessor +town points
77) fishy- “isn't something I'd expect from town. “ rings my scumdar, don't know why (it isn't proven that this comes from scum more than town, but it just feels scummy). Votes UT for essentially having diff scum tells/confusion -scum points
80) Budja sheeps fishy therefore through the transitive property -scum points
83) Richard calls vollkan, budja, poro, parama, and UT town. Therefore, at least 1 of these is scum
87) I disagree with parama on his point here. However he tries to give Richard an out/defends him (possible buddying up/later distancing from lynch) -scum points

So far, Parama is sticking out as having a scummy entry into the game. I think the best info comes from the beginning of the game, before pressure and the scum gets a good idea of how town interacts, and therefore this bolsters my suspicion of Parama. Obviously, I haven't read fully the game. I will, however, read the last 10 pages today and post about the lynching wagons later.

To answer fishys? question, I expected to be NK'd because I would NK'd me if I was scum. The scum have managed to bend the town to their will, guiding them into mislynches. They have a plan on how to win, and it is based around player interaction. A new set of eyes is a variable that could put a wrench in their plans.

Also, calm down about the unvoting, 1 vote on a person has very little chance of a scum quicklynch.

[Battousai]

Hi Batt, you're not making me like that slot any better with your posting. Thanks

Since you haven't given a reason why you don't like my posts, I must assume it is because you don't like it that I called your early D1 actions scummy. Since you aren't defending against it, and instead make a vague threat against me (in that if I continue posting that you are scummy, you will vote me), I must assume you are scum.

[Battousai]

EDIT: Forgot to add in that I'm almost done reading, but it will get done soon as my paper just got finished.

[Battousai]

Two parter for those who don't like to read wall posts:

I ISO'd volkan first, as to see what IS is talking about

Early game seems protown. Here's his first post table, updated to what it was at lynch:

Untrod Tripod55 ->50- unknown
Porochaz53 -town
RichardGHP53 -town
Espeonage51 -town
Oman50
Ojanen50
mikeburnfire50
Ythill Jdodge50
Parama50
Luchris50
SeolBudja50
Fishythefish50

Now D1 wagon shows that an unknown escaped lynch and was replaced by a townie. (see wagon analysis post)

Unofficial list for D2, taken from points posted:

MBF 54 unknown
Oman 52 town
Espy 51 town
UT 50
Ojanen 50
Ythill 50
Parama 50
Luchris 50
Seol 50
Fishy 50

I don't like is ISO 47/48. In 47, he votes Oman (the currently tied with UT for head wagon) on the basis of the fact that ythill put the two leading wagons to 3-3 and he wanted Oman to respond to a question he quoted from Ythill about 15 minutes earlier. I guess in order to get him to respond. In the same post he gives Oman a boost in points as the second highest at the time was 51, thus making him the “scummiest” of his suspects.

In 48, he gives MBF +4, thus making him the scummiest. He refused to vote him because he didn't know the current VC, which if he took 3 minutes, he could deduce as the last VC was a page earlier.

The VC was this, for clarification:

Oman (4): Espeonage, Ojanen, Luchris, Vollkan
Untrod Tripod (2): Fishythefish, mikeburnfire
MBF (2): Ythill, Oman
Luchris (1): UT

not voting (2): Oman, Seol, Parama

With 11 players it is 6 to lynch.

If he unvoted and switched to MBF, it would be Oman 3, UT 2, MBF 3. MBF would be tied and have a chance at lynch, so would Oman who he gladly put into the head spot. The only person in danger that Vollkan hasn't said was scummy was UT. Again. I think this was a guise to defend UT from a potential lynch.

D3 points

MBF 58 unknown
UT 55 unknown
IS 55 unknown
Luchris 54 town
Ythill 52 town
Espy 51 town
Parama 50
Fishy 50

[Battousai]

D1 VC:

RichardGHP

(5):

Porochaz,

mikeburnfire,

Oman

, Untrod Tripod, Vollkan
Untrod Tripod (5):

Luchris, RichardGHP, Fishythefish, Espeonage, Ythill

Ythill (2): Ojanen,

Parama

Porochaz

(1): Seol

not voting (0):

D2 VC:

Oman (5): Espeonage, Luchris,

Vollkan, Internet Stranger, mikeburnfire,

Ythill

mikeburnfire (1):

Oman

Luchris

(1): Untrod Tripod
Untrod Tripod (1):

Fishythefish

not voting (2): Parama,

Ojanen

D3 VC:

Luchris

(4): Untrod Tripod, Internet Stranger, Parama, mikeburnfire,

Fishythefish

Internet Stranger (2):

Ythill, Luchris

mikeburnfire (1): Vollkan

not voting (1):

Espeonage

What I'm seeing from all this, is a connection between Vollkan and UT. Volkan's actions have seemed scummy as well, starting at ISO 47/48 you can see that he was trying NOT to get someone lynched and seemed to make an excuse up to add points in order TO get someone lynched. Looking at the D1 VC, I can pretty much guarantee there is at least one scum of the MBF, Volkan, and UT.


MBF: Scum wouldn't do this... mantra is BS. Scum would if they knew the wagon that would replace it is town. They get bonus town points for unsuccessfully derailing a town PR lynch, and there would still be a mislynch. Win, Win.

[Battousai]

Damn, forgot to vote

vote: Vollkan

[Battousai]

Vollkan- It's more to the fact that it seems like you added points to Oman so you can be consistent (between votes/points) and vote him. I don't know why you gave him points, as all you wanted was a response.

Vollkan- It just seems off. You could have easily found the VC. You didn't. That leads me to believe that you didn't want to vote, but still wanted to say MBF is scummy. This also leads me to believe that you didn't want the vote count to change from Oman 4, UT 2, MBF 2 to Oman 3, MBF 3, UT 2. Why? MBF was in the lead with points, followed by Oman (who you had no qualms putting into the lead with votes). The only reason would be that you either a) wanted Oman lynched regardless of your points, or B) you were trying to protect UT and/or MBF (If MBF, making him scummy then not following up with a vote at a later day seems like distancing).

Vollkan- UT wasn't you highest suspect? Really? So, you'd vote someone at 52 points, even though you have someone else on your list that is at 54 points, but you wouldn't want to danger someone who has 50 points (aka null). Is 2 points really that important, and I still don't see why you didn't vote MBF based on your townie point system. And why am I voting you over UT? Well, you are the one making all these connections to UT. I ISO'd you, not UT. Why do you want me to shift my attention to UT over you?

MBF- I slipped up. I accidentally had fishy in my dead pile. Now that fishy isn't confirmed, my opinion is a bit different, but not by much. A switch from an unconfirmed wagon (lead predominately by all town, which is now all town -1 unconfirmed) would suggest that the scum preferred a Richard lynch. Now, I've played with Richard before, and not to be mean, but he tends to be a bit VI and fake claims as town (see last will mafia 2 for what I'm saying) and scum would probably prefer not to lynch him and lynch another townie if they had a choice on D1. Richard could have easily been lynched later, whereas it seems UT hasn't been able to be lynched since then. I would guess that this points to UT being scum.

MBF- Since Volkan "gunned" for you, very weakly, I'd say connection wise, you'd be up there behind UT as a possible partner. My case on Vollkan... have you full read my posts? It falls back onto the fact that he has voted consistantly for the benefit of another player. Town doesn't do that unless they think the person is obvtown. I haven't seen that, since this goes back since D1 and he still hasn't called UT obvtown (in fact he has him up a bit in points, which I see as distancing).

Fishy- I don't find tunnelling all that scummy. I find it actually comes from town moreso, and that scum typically are more dynamic to avoid being locked into actions.

Everyone- Don't dismiss my case on Vollkan because of IS's theory. Look at it independantly. IS could be right in thinking Vollkan is scum, even if you think his reasoning is flawed.

FTR- Scum team of Volkan and UT, with a possible third with MBF.

[Battousai]

Parama- How am I scum by association? I believe Vollkan is scum. IS believes Vollkan is scum for different reasons. Other than that, I see no association. MBF thinks IS is scum. Does that mean Vollkan is scum by association? Also, if I'm scum by association with IS, how come you would hammer me when you have MBF as stand alone scum? Wouldn't you prefer to lynch IS and then MBF? Also, all I've seen from you is about voting. I haven't seen much in the way of discussion from you. Look at my case, is it feesible? Look at D1 vote count, wouldn't you think 1 scum would be on the Richard wagon, especially if the runner up wagon is scum?

Looking at the vote count:

mikeburnfire (2): Parama, Untrod Tripod
Vollkan (2): Internet Stranger, Battousai
Internet Stranger (1): mikeburnfire

If we ignore the 1 vote (due to it being very difficult for 3 scum to quicklynch). We have two wagons at 2 votes. There have not been a quicklynch, therefore I would speculate that fishy and vollkan are not scum TOGETHER. Since I believe Vollkan to be scum, fishy is town.

Also, I am very, very certain that there is at least 1 scum amoung MBF, UT, and Vollkan due to D1 wagon. If none of them were scum, from an outside POV, that would mean that one scum would be on each of the 3 smaller wagons (and town ran up two townies without much scum help (only 1 scum amoung 2 town wagons). So, what is more likely is that scum voted Richard.

Fishy, I ask you to hammer right now (and by that put someone at L-1). Put either MBF or Vollkan at L-1, thus confirming that they are scum if they aren't hammered. Please read my case and decide.

[Battousai]

The point that is being expressed is that there is a reason why the game is deadlocked despite so many votes sitting out there.

And the reason is that Vollkan is scum. If he wasn't scum, this game would have been over already. The game is still there for the town to win, we are going to ferret out the rest of the scum by tomorrow with Vollkan's lynch. We will see who is trying to hide with him. Vollkan tried to stay aloof and hide all game, but finally got caught. The rest of you scumbags are next!

You won't escape me scum, first I lynch me a vollkan scum, then I'm coming for you!

What he said, minus the Farnsworth chuckle. I could have easily won the game for scum, if I was scum, just like MBF said. I could have easily switched to a MBF wagon, then IS scum would hammer. What I don't get is, why is MBF calling us foolish scum instead of town? His whole reasoning for me being scum, it would seem, is that I don't want to vote IS. Hell, if we were both scum, I could have easily helped lynch IS scum and ride out the game for another day. Why? Scum have to get 1 mislynch. Just 1. A scum lynch would be a set back, but not a game changer.

MBF adamant idea that IS is scum, and thus, everyone who has expressed not to want him lynched is scum, plus the fact scum haven't quickhammered either of the two wagons makes me think MBF is most likely scum.


Everyone-

Also, I am very, very certain that there is at least 1 scum amoung MBF, UT, and Vollkan due to D1 wagon. If none of them were scum, from an outside POV, that would mean that one scum would be on each of the 3 smaller wagons (and town ran up two townies without much scum help (only 1 scum amoung 2 town wagons). So, what is more likely is that scum voted Richard.

What does everyone think? What would be more likely- all 3 scum were on 3 different wagons that didn't go into fruition and none on the lynching wagon, or at least one scum is on the lynching wagon? If the second is the case, would it be plausible the reason for the UT to Richard switch is that scum didn't want UT lynched?

Preview edit: What the fuck are you talking about MBF? How am I advocating a lynch on Vollkan, regardless of alignment? I've said that Vollkan is scum. Do you not comprehend that scum is an alignment? Are you that dense? Or are you trying to discredit my case against Vollkan, and any leads that brings to you? Ya, that's what I thought.

[Battousai]

How am I advocating a lynch on Vollkan, regardless of alignment?

You're a fool if you truly don't see it.

Put either MBF or Vollkan at L-1, thus confirming that they are scum if they aren't hammered.

Oh, I thought you were talking about my case. This was basically alluring to the fact that scum have not quickhammered yet, thus making you someone they don't want to hammer.

Parama- Replace out if you don't intend to play. Not answering questions posed at everyone and at YOU is anti-town at best.

[Battousai]

That's lynch

[Battousai]

son of a bitch

[Battousai]

This is why I don't replace in many games. It's hard for me to get "in" it. Maybe if I was an original player I could have thought IS was scum a bit easier, instead of listening him and focusing on Vollkan. Fishy did play well, and if it was me/fishy/xxx I would have voted xxx eventually. But I replaced in anyways when I saw the player base, decent players, no known VIs alive, which is rare it would seem.