Mafia 126 - Lovers Mafia! [Game Over]

[Llamarble]

I agree with massclaiming.
Being able to read players in pairs will help us get more accurate reads.

Also since there are no NKs who wins 1scumv1town endgames and so forth?

VOTE: Umbrage

Shall I compare thee to a summer's day?
thou art

ENTIRELY MORE EVIL

[Llamarble]

I thought it was a lot of USA and UK and Australia and a few other places? USA here.

Haven't claimed yet because the game has started fast and I wanted to make sure there aren't actually good reasons for not massclaiming. Rushing into stuff without thinking is anti-town etcetc but this seems pretty clear.

Kirk <3 Starbuck forever! A match made in the heavens!

Lover: DarlaBlueEyes

I like that there's no issue dishing out townreads in this game. Scum can't make much use of a shoppinglist without money or a shop. But yeah that's weird logic for calling Silvavor town; pretty much anyone could have corrected that. Maybe he was scum hoping to nip a potential source of towncred in the bud.

[Llamarble]

People often say giving townreads is like making a "shopping list" for scum to pick NKs from, but since they have no NKs to "shop" with a shopping list does them no good.

@Mariyta: I was definitely in favor of a massclaim but wanted to make sure I wasn't crazy and others were in agreement.

[Llamarble]

Heh it seems like we can just no-lynch into eternity if we're feeling indecisive with a deadline looming. What's to prevent that?

Does anyone think Umbrage is already chainsawing for GreyIce during RVS?
Emp's case on GreyIce is weak, sure, but getoutofRVSreasoning is always stretchy.
Then again maybe Thingy (Emplover) referring to both scumteams as "wolves" is a slip and he's forgotten there are different types than his own?

[Llamarble]

Unvote; Vote EmpTyger

Baaaa
Also some of the logic against him is good.

[Llamarble]

Well, yes, hence "Baaaa."
I'll read more carefully later.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Espeonage
I don't see how PO fails to remember there are no nightkills right after Grey asked how the scum could eliminate us, posted the role PMs, and said "SOMETHING'S MISSING." And I don't see why he mixes up daytalk with nightkilling in his ohnoI'mmadienow post unless he had already internalized the setup beforehand and thus thinks of them as equally obvious.

Unless he's lying.

@ Reck: Way to make anew wagon but I can't really agree with it. The tone is somewhat jovial in the first post so I am inclined to believe that most parts are joking as she said. I think you're reading a bit much into it but it's still a valid case if you interpret it that way. I'm not going to join that wagon but I'm not going to oppose.

Now to go read a couple of pages. Give me a few minutes, if I'm allowed them.

He's actually on my silavor wagon. :p They just need to claim lovers and get it over with.

AND WHY ARE YOU FENCESITTING??? How much more wishy-washy can you get on the Haylen thing??

Tone of post reads definitely jovial to me, and I think Reck's case is exaggerated crud blown way out of proportion, but I'm thinking that's just a symptom of how he plays. (Was that wishy washy on Reck?) And sez the person who made a case on silavor based on...well, really not much, but there you have it. Not seeing anything overtly town in Haylen's posts, however, so I'm happy continuing to bothering silavor.

Calling out his own lover for fencesitting is a really weird move from town. If you're town you know your lover simply doesn't feel strongly on the issue or sees the wagon as pro-town but is going to focus elsewhere. Makes more sense if it's scum trying to deflect suspicion by commenting on the matter before anyone else does.

I see nothing in Esp's posting to indicate he's town. And the phrasing below bothers me:

Mountain out of an ant hill yes but adding to the fact that your partner is obviously active lurking through the early stages of the game and you have something that looks pretty bad.

Scum are trying to find people who "look bad" whereas town are trying to find scum.

[Llamarble]

Heh, I'm here little torgo. I was actually writing up a KCD vote before I saw yours.
VOTE: KCD
His ISO is APPALLING.
He's accusing Reck for blowing something he CLEARLY HAS NOT READ CAREFULLY out of proportion.
There is no way a townie would consider voting someone based on attitude toward situation X without bothering to read situation X carefully enough to decide what attitudes are reasonable.
I thought even the scum would be scumhunting this game, but I guess KCD was just too lazy.
And Babyspice has done nothing but lurk.

[Llamarble]

Umbridge. I'm planning a case. Don't really want to derail my own wagon though.

Is this (either half, really) something town ever does?? I always just posted my thoughts and if multiple people are scummy I say so. I know it's something scum does regularly though.
So yeah Espy & Orange are still scum. Also Silva go read my previous case against them.

GreyIce and Anti look town to me.

[Llamarble]

Q21 / Umbrage don't look as bad to me as Kcd/Babyspice or Espy/Orange. The "I am going to give long thought process for how I arrived at the realization that there is a delete button" post was weird. I see no reason not to just give the picture there. But Q21 does seem to understand the cases against Esporange and Kcd. I don't have a strong townread on the pair but I don't think they're in the scumminess league of Esporange or Kcdaspice.

And I totally agree with GreyIce on the Kise/Reck situation. My input was just not going to be useful there as it resolved. I don't have scumreads on either Kise or Reck at the moment. I just finished a game (mini 1105) where we had a situation where it seemed like someone must be lying, and it was never explained to my satisfaction, but he turned out to be town. And Tragedy still not knowing the game mechanics at this point is ridiculous.

[Llamarble]

We seem to be at L-2.

I reread Umbrage and Q21 more thoroughly since they seem to be close to lynch.
I don't think they're scum. The Umb-rage seems genuine and they make sense. The OMGUS inconsistency is sort of weird, but I don't see why scum is any more likely to do that than town. They also agree with me in a few places (similar thoughts often means same role).
Q21 does have some goodposting after the early sheepy stuff. Hypocritically sheeping and calling out sheeping early on seems like a harmless RVS double standard (sheeping makes wagons for pressure, calling out sheepers produces discussion). He has given explanations of his behavior that have more or less made sense.

The whole interaction between Umbrage and GreyIce looks townontown to me.

I would much rather lynch Kcdbs or espo. Or maybe Tragedy/Mariyta. T/M's stances on Vezok are really weird. I'll cover them next.

[Llamarble]

Tragedy's "I just realized nightless" post comes ON PAGE 17 after a massive battle over which players were pretending not to remember that information. I find it hard to believe that could be honest.

Tragedy's mentions of Vezok: (not as weird as they seemed to me on first perusal but I suppose I'll still mention them.
Refers to him as definition of easy target and points out Q21 is attacking him
Then puts Vezok at the top of her scumlist (no mention in between)
Mention's Q21's "Random pointing of scum accusation towards vezopiraka without evidence."
Then this

Scum. Followed Reck's vote towards Haylen. Random pointing of scum accusation towards vezopiraka without evidence. Scum scum scum.

She's got a point there. Among countless other players, q21 has actually done some sheeping. And he found vezok scummy. Which is obviously scummy. Because, you know, finding vezok scummy is just... taboo. Anyway, the important thing to remember here is that Tragedy has VERY GOOD AND ORIGINAL REASONING and you should vote q21 NOW BECAUSE SHE SAYS SO.

I understand what you mean vezok is obviously scummy now after a quick reread on him.
Massive jumpings are bad, man.

I am confused by this and want it clarified. Is is supposed to be sarcastic (in which case why is Vezok listed as scummy before) or honest (in which case why is she agreeing with her top scumread and apparently forgetting she already had a scumread on vezok).

Mariyta's only notable statement about Vezok is that she "needs to take a look at him," and this was very recent.

So why is Vezok sitting on top of Tragedy's scumlist at that point?

[Llamarble]

The "could umbrage be chainsawing for GreyIce" post was getoutofRVS type reasoning / questions.

@ Tragedy: I don't understand your position as to 'wasting time'. I detect the 'thanks' was sarcastic, but I don't see any challenge to my position, other than possibly agreeing it's 'a waste of time', when it has been shown we have as much time as we need by plenty of players. Please clarify.

Thanks

wasn't

sarcastic. I was simply agreeing you xD

Since Tragedy meant what she said literally, then she was saying her top scumread was making good observations (which is I guess less of a tell than normal). More importantly she was acting like Vezok's scumminess was new to her, which seems weird considering she put Vezok on top of her scumlist earlier. That is what I want an explanation of.

I don't agree at all that the Reck/NC or GreyIce/AH pairs have been anti-town; smashing things up to create situations deep enough to read people off of is extremely useful for town and both have made some good cases.

And why are we lining up my lynch for tomorrow?

[Llamarble]

I said I was in favor of massclaim in my first post. People asked why I didn't then immediately claim, and I said it was because I wanted to be sure I hadn't made some huge oversight that would make it a bad idea. In the early part of the game I moved my vote around and made stretchy questions and sheeped wagons to make pressure. This is how we get to the useful content part of the game. I'm not as active as I was in Autumn mafia because that was my only game and I'm playing several now, my internet access is sketchy and I've simply learned a lot since then.

My vote on Espeonage is my first "I really think this player is currently the most likely to be scum" vote.
PO had made a post "forgetting" about NKs right after GreyIce made some posts that SHOULD have triggered that memory if it existed, and in the case of PO he admitted he had definitely been familiar with that information previously. And I also explained in that post why I found calling out a lover for fencesitting weird from town. I remain suspicious of that pair

And explaining why I believe the case somebody else has made on another player is good, then voting that player, is perfectly good town play. We can't all be the one who finds the scumslip.

[Llamarble]

I don't want to lynch Reckoner and GreyIce because they're not fun, or because of some theoretical difference of opinion. I want to lynch them because I think they are mafia or werewolf. 

And Mariyta/Tragedy are not good lynches. They are trying to be logical and trying to make sense of the game and being thwarted by the context of some other players drowning out. That is an asset for the town.

The goal is to lynch the players creating confusion.

Not the players being confused by something confusing.

This "we need to make the game less confusing" stuff sounds more like politicizing than scumhunting. I find it difficult to imagine scum thinking "let's bash things up so people are confused and make mistakes we can fake scumhunt them for." I find it much more likely town would want to smash things up to raise enough issues to force players to show their colors.
And why on earth are you voting me?

[Llamarble]

@Emp: that wasn't actually an explanation.
I think the antitowns will be
A. Hunting the other antitowns.
B. Avoiding intractable situations unless they're sure they can get out of them.
C. Not eager to prevent mislynches, especially since if wrong they'll look like buddies.
D. Trying to do things that look unbelievable from scum.

Smashing things up the way Reck and GreyIce are make it difficult for scum to achieve B and makes them easier to catch doing C. It also may make situations where they attempt D and get caught faking such a thing.

@Tragedy: Well could you respond then?

BTW Darla and I are town because we're brash and fiery space heroes. Our types don't marry much and don't have a specific moon to be werewolfed by (death star doesn't count), which rules out membership in both factions.

[Llamarble]

Uh, I was _not_ in favor of the Umbrage lynch, so I don't see how you can accuse me of doing C.
And A is scumhunting, which I will freely admit to having done.
As for B, I haven't found myself in any weird situations yet, sure. That doesn't really happen all that often in general though.

[Llamarble]

Why don't I have suspects??? Did you even read my posting? I'm suspicious of kcdspice, espo, and somewhat of Mariyta/Tragedy (I want that stance on Vezok explained).

I need to do a more thorough reread myself and then I'll give a scumminess ranking.

[Llamarble]

Tragedy, could you explain why you had Vezok on your scumlist, then later when somebody else pointed out he was scummy you said "huh, I see what you mean?"

[Llamarble]

Argh, I'm really tired. My reads need updating. I was thinking Esporange, Kcdaspice, and to a lesser degree margedy were scummy before, but I need to catch up.

[Llamarble]

I live!
Catch up post coming.

[Llamarble]

@Emptyger: You are basically telling everyone that lurking is antitown, which everyone already knows. But then the players you are expressing suspicion of are the ones who are being active (my pair excepted). And where are you hiding Thingyman? Him not posting makes it harder to read you both.

Silavor's stance on Reck, as pointed out by Dram, is really really weird. He votesat on Q21town all d1 until he got lynched because of Q21's double standard on sheeping/bandwagoning, but spent more time attacking Reck than he did attacking Q21. Then suddenly Reck is town and he doesn't even remember having thought Reck was scum? That just doesn't make sense to me. I believe scum are more likely to mysteriously abandon reads than town both because they're faking them. A larger QT with players more active than Haylen would also explain how his thoughts turned around without any outside signs of such.

VOTE: Silavor

Haylen didn't do much of note other than being angry with Reck and voting Q21.

[Llamarble]

More stuff:
Tragedy/Mariyta remain scummy. Mariyta's posting feels opportunistic. Their pair bandwagoned against Q21 and now against Kcd. Tragedy saying Umbrage (her top scumread) was making a good point that Vezok was scummy when she had expressed suspicion of Vezok earlier herself, but not pursuing a Vezok lynch any further, is rather strange. Strange for thinking top scumread is doing good scumhunting and for apparently forgetting she had already thought Vezok scummy and for not following up at all on Vezok then or today.

Kcdspice actually look a bit less scummy now that Kcdtown appears capable of "Reck is scummy for opinion on X" without bothering to read X. I don't like that their hammer votes on Q21 may have been made to save themselves though. The speed of that lynch unnerved me. And I am having difficulty making up my mind whether BS's exasperation with Kcd is an act or not. Asking KCD to examine ISOs of different players (or even just 1) and report back makes sense. I'd like to see the results of that.

I didn't see anything new from Espo that blatantly bothered me. I don't think Nero comparing lovers to married people is a scumtell, and I find Baby Spice noticing such completely reasonable.

[Llamarble]

Emptyger's play this game seems really weird to me. He's harping on people "creating confusion" and his scumlist is pretty heavily opposed to mine. Seems like a lot of information/politicizing/weshoulddothis as opposed to analysis. He's difficult to get an alignment read on though. I just want more "X is scum/town because Y" posts (this applies to everyone, I suppose).

I also love how Llamarble calls me opportunistic. Let's go look at his votes, shall we?
Early vote on Umbrage
Then follows Umbrage and AH onto Emptyger, who was getting heavy suspicion at the time
Ooo, then he jumps onto the Kcda wagon, putting Kcda at 6 votes
He stayed off the q21 wagon, but happily declared that they were town. His "suspects" at this time were Kcda, Esp, and me/Tragedy (no surprise there, considering I've been going after him since the beginning).
He did grow a pair and place his own vote this morning, with semi-decent reasoning (most of it stolen from others).

And we've already explained Llamarble's point on Tragedy. Good play =/= Not scum. It has been mentioned, repeatedly, that there are two scum teams. One team can easily be hunting the other and make valid cases against them. We can agree with those cases and someone's reasoning, while still thinking they're scum.

Rather than defend accusations of opportunism, Mariyta chooses to put down my voting record and call it opportunistic. My early votes on Umbrage & Emp were hardly likely to produce a lynch, so what's opportunistic about them? Then I voted Kcd after explaining that I felt he was fake-scumhunting. Then I _defended_ the townies who got lynched yesterday. That's the opposite of opportunism; I tried not to get a townpair lynched and put myself in a situation where an Umbrage scumflip would've made me look quite bad. And then she says my vote today has decent reasoning. So where is this opportunism accusation coming from?

And if you think somebody is making good cases with good reasoning, what about them is scummy?

VOTE: Mariyta

I do think her pair has been opportunistic. They've been on most of the major wagons this game and haven't particularly defended anyone. Tragedy's stance on Vezok still doesn't really make townsense to me. Nothing in their posting makes me think "huh, this doesn't makes sense if these two are scum."

[Llamarble]

I'd like a votecount

@Kise/Emp: That's the right quote. He's saying town can't sit back passively and hope to win (lurking is bad). But he mostly wants to lynch people who are being active and thinks lurky players are town (see his earlier scumlist post). This is sort of consistent with his "scum are coordinated and seeking to dominate the thread," but saying town should be assertive and then labeling the most assertive players as scum is very confusing to me. I thus find it amusing that he is telling us the scum will try to sow confusion. I just reread him and am now leaning scum a bit due to his long-term tunneling with not too many read updates and focus on this minor issue. Last I heard from Darla she was saying she found Thingy pretty scummy. I guess I'll make a more thorough effort to read him & Vezok next.

[Llamarble]

Vezok is null to slight town. Some bandwagony stuff, but a couple of towntells that would've been clever if he's scum.
Emp is very consistent and appears to be scumhunting, whatever alignment he is. I see relatively scant towntells from his pair, but he was against the Q21 mislynch.
I don't want to lynch him today.

[Llamarble]

That sentence referred to Emp, but I also don't want to lynch Vezok today so either interpretation is fine.

[Llamarble]

Farewell m'dear.
I wonder to whom I shall next be directing my affections...
@Kise (or Emp): What exactly did Emp think I was insisting on? I remember being confused by that when I first saw it.
VOTE: Kcdaspot
The whole parent-child thing seemed a little unrealistic to me and I didn't like how they seemed to treat the Q21/Umb wagon as a counterwagon to avoid being lynched themselves. Kcd not producing the promised ISOs / case material doesn't help.

[Llamarble]

Huh, that actually was unintentional, but I don't have a problem with it. Hopefully you'll flip scum.

[Llamarble]

There was a joke during signups about how cruel to us males Haylen/BS loverpair would be; I assumed it was a reference to that.
Reading for associative tells now.

[Llamarble]

I'mma reiterate that Haylen joked about being lovers with BS in the signup thread, and I believe her early mention was a continuation of that joke.

I went through all the loverpairs, and you have to buy bussing for it to be almost anyone other than Emp, who outright defended kcdbs and tried to get the game moving in a different direction.
Also this.

Vote GreyIce

Scummy actions and empty posts.

FOS Thingy/Emp

Also sounds like scum to me.

VOTE: Emptyger
I don't want to quicklynch, but this is definitely the first direction to examine. Chainsaw + Fosbuddy vote otherperson + weirdposting is a pretty good start.

[Llamarble]

I'd say if somebody bussed it was most likely weredram (defended KCD d1 & didn't Reck mention something about Dram loving to bus?) or Kise (late on waggy).
And I need to think about who I think the other team is.

[Llamarble]

Huh, Thingy's KCD vote/stance was actually pretty respectable. So no matter what (unless I missed something) we have to buy bussing, which changes things.

Unvote

I do think Silavor is a good candidate for the kcdbusser, but Haylen mentioning the BS joke actually makes me think she's less likely the culprit.
Vezok only voted KC d2. I could see vezok as the busser. Kise or dramwolf too.

[Llamarble]

I reread Espy & PO. Espy's "I don't want to derail my own wagon" referred to KCD. That statement makes a lot of sense to me from the perspective of scum not wanting to be the one derailing the lynch on his buddy. Particularly since 3 minutes later he points out the day is super young.
Scum thought process: I don't want to lynch KCD and I am ready to go attack someone else, but his scumflip will make me look bad if I start my counterwagon now. But it's only 5 days in, so this wagon won't last, and I can wait for it to self-dissolve naturally instead.
Town thought process: I can't see one. Not posting suspicion because it might compete with your other suspicion doesn't make sense.

Their subsequent record on kcd isn't great either. PO votes the pair briefly D2 while saying he thinks BS has been very townish and he may be simply getting confused by KCD's randomness. Then he joins Espy on the Mariyta counterwagon. Espy's facepalm barrage near the end of KCD's life may have been "I can't believe these townies are lynching my buddy without even noticing they're a hammer"

And of course the PO/Esp pair wouldn't surprise me as wolves either, which is a nice bonus. And there was PO's leadoff wifommish "I forgot setup information I discussed in the signup thread."

VOTE: Espeonage
They were also a recent scumread of Ash in our QT; I like that as well.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Espeonage
I've been suspicious of them for a long time & my lover has reached the same conclusion. Most other loverpairs are townreads. I think the Kise pair may be bussing them due to their unsalvageable situation, but need to look more carefully into previous days' behavior, which I am too tired to do right now.

[Llamarble]

UNVOTE; VOTE KISE

I reread Kise, then read PO's 1487. 1487 is good. Kise hasn't given out townreads and has stayed in a small space. Kise's posting doesn't look like that of a player who is trying to figure the game out or truly cares who gets lynched. The exception to that is the Reck episode, and I doubt Kisescum is any less likely than Kisetown to go after someone he thinks he has caught lying.

[Llamarble]

I need to reread Grey & Reck; I haven't in forever because their ISOs are so long, but they've been sitting on general townreads for awhile and I want to make sure those are justified.

[Llamarble]

Yay, GreyIce is still town. I'll get to Reck next.

[Llamarble]

Okay, Reck is even more almost definitely town, for among other reasons saying he didn't think Mariy/PO were scum together, not mentioning it for awhile, and then continuing to have that read in mind ages later even after the mafia are gone. He's trying to figure out what's going on. Nero hasn't been as active, but I don't find him scummy.

[Llamarble]

@Purp: My scumread on you guys isn't as strong as it was before.
At this point I think Mariyta is a more likely Kisebuddy than your pair considering:
At one point Mariyta said she liked a case Grey made against Kise then didn't mention it for awhile, prompting

@Mari: What part of Grey's case?

#1023. I need to look at you in full before I make a decision, though.

This "went boom" and the only later mention of Kise we get is:

You'd rather lynch me/Grey than dram/werewolf or Kise/[insert flaker here]? Seriously, Mari?

Are you scum this time?

Yes, I'm serious. I don't have a scum read on any of those you listed.

And no, I'm not scum this time. Are you scum again?

EmpTyger - Thingyman: Don't have a read. Thingyman hasn't posted at all, and I tend to ignore Emp's posts.
GreyICE - Antihero: Scummy due to meta (yeah, I hate meta, but whatever)
Llamarble - DarlaBlueEyes: Llamarble is probably scum. Darla was replaced? Don't remember the replacement except some weird outburst or something.
Implosion - Kise: Don't remember Implosion, but Kise has been good.
xRECKONERx - Nero Cain: I like them both.
PurpleOrange - Espeonage: Potential scum. I don't like Esp, but PO is ok.
Werewolf555 - Dramonic: Neither has done a thing, but I trust Reck's read.

So lynchable people are Grey,Llama, and Esp.

P-edit: Force replaces seem to be common requests lately, but I've never seen a mod do it.

Papa wants to lynch Espo who is the alternative to lynching their pair / Kise and is asking about the case on Kise. Reads staying in place after replacement is also a minor scumtell;
scum are playing according to a plan so replacements are more likely to follow up the actions of the player they replaced, whereas town will show a new perspective.

Tragedy showed minimal interest in Kise until today; now he is part of her "lynch in the next few days" group. But for now she's voting Es/PO.

Mariyta voted Kise for a couple of days D1 during the Reck/Kise matter, but got off quickly to go after me instead.

And Kise doesn't seem to have said much of Mariyta other than thinking they're town.

So that's the first place I'll look on a Kise scumflip.

[Llamarble]

Getting townreads from me is irrelevent when I've explicably called po-esp, grey, and ashblade as the likely scum in that order. So then... guess whos left to fill those town spots? I am very comfortable with leaving the game in a reck-nero-dram-?-trag-? finale if it ever came to that. Just fucking lynch esp and if theyre town then lynch me without a fight. Seriously. Not once did i imply i wanted to survive to endgame, as i know im not everyone's top town read. I already felt like i would be a quick-lynchee for my OWN proposal. If you thought i care about living til endgame, i dont. What i dont want is for PO to claw her pair out of a lynch when its been obvious to me at least that theyre not worth keeping around. "Walking" contradictions. PO's old case was shut down, but shes found new things to call me scummy for? lololol. She cant decide whether i have a chance of being town or obvscum? lolololol.

PO, you do realize that if I'm scum (and you're supposed to be town here), I could have had your slot mislynched by now. Llama + me + Reck hammer would spell the end for you and Esp. Since it's become obvious we're not in a QT together, or even if we were, I have not tried to get a mislynch D5. If I was scum, I would benefit heavily from putting you and Esp away to buy time for whoever my partner may be. What is the scum gain from saving you two? Everyone has already said there's no way we could be partners, so no one should accuse me of saving you as my partner, in the same right.

The stupid part about this all is that once one of us flip town, everyone will likely ignore the cases brought up and instead try to lynch the other one of us D6. Laziness. There's nothing hard about bolding an unvote at all. I'm not the one tunneling any more.

Obvious scummotive to not get ESPO lynched: you'd probably get lynched tomorrow as per your suggestion above. Also I don't think there's no way your pairs could be partners; other possibilities seem more likely but I haven't ruled it out. Scum who don't like the direction the game is going have every incentive to try and drive things in a different direction (pushing on us / Dram / Grey). And you wouldn't even be guaranteed to get the lynch you wanted; unless you somehow made your return convincing Reck could just laugh at you.

Could you concisely explain your suspicion of our pair? All I see is an accusation of OMGUS, which is silly given we weren't even your main targets, and some vague context-free complaints about our positions on wagons.

[Llamarble]

Ugh I have the "these guys are really really going to flip scum" confidence about Kise & Llama.
I should put down the things that have me so convinced. Maybe Tuesday night (limited access tomorrow).
I suppose I should reread ESPO too since they've seemed scummy to me before.

I am finding EMP & Hiraki somewhat suspicious and will give them a thorough player-read soon as well.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Kise

[Llamarble]

Scum:
Kise/llamafluff

Read Update Required:
Tragedy/Zito
Fate/dram
Emp/Hiraki

Town:
Reck/Nero
Grey/Anti
Me/ashblade

[Llamarble]

People have the same thought as their lover or hydra buddies fairly often since both players share a perspective on the game.

In that post of mine you quoted I mentioned I could also see ESPO as wolves, which made the odds of them flipping some kind of scum better. We were primarily looking for mafia though because they would be easier to find via links to kcd (an opinion borne out by catching Vezok after one ML).

There's no way you're actually town as sure of the scumteam as you're acting. Saying Grey's pair and mine are "equal" since you're certain of both is ridiculous.

Grey was on all the first 4 days' wagons because he was a primary driver for them. He even found us scums. It would be more reasonable to say that the first 4 lynches were on who they were because that was where Grey was than to say he went where the lynches were / had no problem being on them. He wasn't on the D5 wagon because he found Kise scummier than ESPO.

[Llamarble]

In cookie thief mafia I forced a pretty obvious mislynch down town's throats by scumwalling. Just like Kise is trying to do now. Kise is one of my strongest scumreads in awhile. I guess I'll have to properly sell the Kise wagon since Fate is either wrong or a Kisebuddy.

I'm inclined to doubt KisebuddyFate though since KisebuddyFate could easily bus Kise's face in and then ride Reck's townread + the buscred to Trag/Emp/me/grey lynches -> easy victory. So Trag/Zito are still the best candidate for scums #2.

[Llamarble]

Oh come on. I know you addressed Ash, but your comments apply to my reads too so I may as well answer them.
If player A (Reck), whom I think is town and know is good, gives a townread on player B (Dram), I take their perspective into strong consideration. Especially in a case like this. I think Reck is more town than Dram, but they're likely both town and I'll never vote either of them unless it's just them, Grey, and us left so their order doesn't matter at this juncture.
And I don't like that Fate is attacking Grey, but I think he's town attacking town.

We should really be lynching Kise today. The only other lynch I'd consider voting for is PZ/Tragedy.

And so what if the people who want to lynch me are scum. Does that make it not okay to vote them? Scum always attack me anyway.

[Llamarble]

Kise is Fluff's lover.

Loverlist again:

Town:
Llamarble/Ash
GreyIce/Antihero
Reck/Nero

Probably town:
Dram/Fate

?:
Emp/Hiraqi

Scummy:
PZ/Tragedy

Scum:
Kise/Llamafluff

[Llamarble]

Here's what I think is going on:
Townalliance #1:
Grey's team & my team
Townalliance #2:
Reck's team & Fate's team
Scumteam:
Kise's team & Trag's team
Wildcard:
Emp

Townalliance1 realizes townalliance2 is town. So scumteam is trying to generate mislynches of townalliance1 (or Dram if possible) with an Emplynch later.

Vote: GreyICE

If this team flips town I'm advocating Emp's death. Really not feeling a Kise lynch.

Ugh. Why does everyone seem to want to follow the only reasonable path to town defeat...

[Llamarble]

No way man! Ashblade is totally scum. He reads Dram as more town than Reck based on Reck's read of Dram??? No way town would do that.

[Llamarble]

At this point we're pretty much waiting for Zito/Tragedy to decide who dies, which is unfortunate since they're probably scum with Kise.

[Llamarble]

Towned: EmpTyger, Llamafluff
Townishousness: GreyICE, Kise, Llamarble, Nero Cain
Scummionic: Ashblade, Reck, Antihero
Harf: Dramonic, Hiraki
Wut: Fate

More of Town

: Llamafluff...

Leaning Town

: Nero Cain, GreyICE

Uh-huh

: Hiraki, Reck

I still don't get it

: Kise, AntiHero

I can't read...

: Fate

SCUM

: Dramonic, Llamarble

So you as of a couple days ago find Grey town. And your lover supposedly agrees and has expressed unwillingness to vote Grey, so that's not where this following vote came from.

It's pretty unfortunate on how Llamarble is more focused on Kise, when he doesn't even consider the problem about GreyICE, ugh.

Vote: GreyICE

SO WHY IS IT "UNFORTUNATE" THAT I'M SAYING GREY IS TOWN?? I spent a long time reading Grey's entire ISO, determined he was obvtown, and have not voted for him. Where do you get "unfortunate?" The only thing unfortunate for your scumteam is that more than one townie has you pegged, so you can't just lynch us away in one go. Kise has already expressed his intent to lynch me next of course, since you really can't win if either of us are alive.

[Llamarble]

I mentioned my reasoning for Trag/Kise scumteam in 39 of my ISO.
There's been more since then, but it's along the same Tragedy/Mariyta having scumbuddystances on Kise lines.
Kise is more definite than PZ/Tragedy though. I really need to make that case, though Grey has already done a good job.

[Llamarble]

What does that mean, "scum has planned it again?"

[Llamarble]

dramonic:
Huh?  So according to you: when Kise first accused Reckoner, Kise knew the accusation was false, but Kise deliberately made it anyway because Kise knew Reckoner could rebut it... and that's why Kise is town?

Kise could not have known, had he known it would have to make him scum, but such an accusation cannot come from scumKise because it would be equivalent to attempting to use evidence that cannot be refuted (technically) and is false and would therefore provoke infinite disdain from most any player who looks at it because nobody who'd be so hungry for a win as to use such underhanded BS tactics deserves to breath.

Kise did not know. ScumKise watches his own ass.
Kise is town.

Kisewerewolfscum presumably thought he caught Reckmafiascum.

[Llamarble]

Eh, if Trag/PZ aren't your buddies, and there have been a couple things that made me a bit wary of that possibility, I'd say Emp/Hiraki aren't unbelievable candidates. Emp is the only player who seems to think a Reck lynch will fly, so he has a bit more motive to bus than others. Reck, Fate, & Grey are my 3 "these players are town" guys.

[Llamarble]

I'm confused tragedy. You've said yourself you have no case on me. And before that you pretty much yelled about lurking.
Please explain the thought process you've gone through looking for scum in this game.

[Llamarble]

What am I avoiding? I've been very clear about my stances. I think Grey is town and Kise is scum.

[Llamarble]

No, not only because of that. During the last month or however long I've ISOed pretty much everyone except possibly EMP/Hiraki.
I guess I'll go back through and find some of the stuff that convinced me.
Fluff first since his ISO's shorter and I only have to think back one gameday.

[Llamarble]

Fate is townier than the towniest townie -> Fate exceeds all townies in towniness -> Fate is not a townie.

[Llamarble]

Weird. A few Trag/PZ posts make me doubt them as Kisebuddies. Maybe Emp? I still need to read them.

[Llamarble]

Tragedy, could you clarify your thoughts about the game?
Something like
I think these are scenarios that could be going on:
A. llamarble and Dramonic are scum
Explanation of why A is plausible
B. Kise & Emp are scum
Explanation of B
C. Kise and somebody else are scum
etc.

I just have no clue what you're thinking at the moment,
so even just what you think the possibilities are with minimal explanations would be useful.

[Llamarble]

Yuck...
Massive reevaluation time.

[Llamarble]

Emp/Tragedy scumteam doesn't feel right. I'll reread Grey again next.

[Llamarble]

Okay time to evaluate the Emp/Tragedy pairing everyone I have town on has been pushing...

[Llamarble]

I buy it. A lot. Emp has been "Tragedypair is town" most of the game except for a period when he said they might be mafia,
which of course is a suspicion that goes away for free on second maflynch.
Tragedypair has pretty much kept Emp as town, and when they disagree they bicker rather than find each other scummy.
Neither of them have any substantial individual towntells to scare me off lynching them.
I think I like Emplynch best; in case Grey is scum I'd like not to lynch their first choice pair & Emp fits more teams. VOTE: EMP
I've always been curious whether you're a tiger with EMP weapons or some kind of number (portmanteauing empty with integer). Or is it both? Die.

[Llamarble]

You could potentially run over me.
I feel like in your position I might be thinking "well I don't want to change my mind in case Llama's scum counterwagoning for PZtragbuddies."
Which is sort of impasseful for picking who to lynch first.
I do think you're town so it probably makes no difference, but I like Emplynch better than Traglynch.

[Llamarble]

@Reck: I think PZ is more likely to surprise me with a townflip than Emp.

[Llamarble]

Yay, Mastin says Grey is obvtown, which makes me even more confident they're both town.
Also I reread Grey some out of respect for Fate but I still can't make Greyscum go in my brain.

Explanation for Empscum:
They spent a long time early in the game attacking people for being anti-town rather than pointing out truly scummy behavior.
This is an issue because I know Emp is a good player; I would expect more insightful play.
Reck and Grey pretty much feel obvtown to me, and they are very convinced of Dramtown and Fate replaced in townfully -> POE.
They have held out against Reckobvtown, realizing the danger of allowing obvtown to exist in the game.
He has done little regarding Maritrag other than protecting them all game long.
His lovers have been mysteriously quiet.
Maritrag's play makes sense as buddies with them too.
Overall I strongly agree with Reck's call of the scumteam.

Also Fate, as insurance against Greyscum we aren't lynching Grey's first choice wagon.
P. edit: wow stuff.

[Llamarble]

Huh, that made infinitely more sense than some previous Trag. posts... And now PZ posts right after.
Anyway I know I'm town, and I have read Grey several times and never thought anything but town.
And I got Recktown when I read Reck. And Fate and Dram are probably town too,
but if they aren't they're scum with Emp since you guys wanted to lynch Dram.

P. Edit: I meant the Trag post right before the vote one.


Whee scum counterwagoning hooheehaa

[Llamarble]

I should make a list of pairs I feel comfortable ruling out to an "if these are the scumz I'm ready to lose" degree.
It might yield a guaranteed-win-path. (Well guaranteed unless I'm wrong about one of my 'this isn't the scumteam' reads)

[Llamarble]

Huh, that failed to convince me you're town.
Also the only person available to hammer right now is EMP.

[Llamarble]

Huh, one or two of Grey/Reck/Dram is scum...

[Llamarble]

It is lylo now
Me/Ash
ReckMastin
GreyDemon
FateDram
ZitoTragedy

At least if we're right today we get a miss.

[Llamarble]

I'm okay with Ash popping in occasionally to sheep me rather than replacing,
or simply doublevoting until a replacement can be found if that makes life less painful.
I find Reck/Fate scumteam plausible and scary. I'll give this game real time tomorrow.

[Llamarble]

Well obviously at least one of my townreads has been wrong so far, and PZ/Tragedy don't really work well with anyone anymore.

[Llamarble]

It is lylo, and some people have already thrown votes down, so we may as well wait and see if scum quickhammer either Ice or Tragedy.

If neither pair gets quickhammered, we reduce the possible scumteams to:
Reck & Fate OR
Tragedy & Grey OR
Reck + Grey OR
Tragedy + Fate

I would get to be confirmed town whee!
Only information I would gain is ruling out Fate + Grey & Reck + Tragedy.

I suppose we need to wait for Ashblade's replacement or my doublevoting powers to really prove my innocence.

So far I'd say lack of QH has already ruled out me + Fate (only 3 of our votes needed to lynch tragedy so no Ash needed) & Reck + Tragedy.

[Llamarble]

Both Grey and Tragedy are. Scum would just have to get in their 4 person QT and put down 4 votes in 15 seconds or so.

[Llamarble]

I'm saying we shouldn't put more votes on because 2 people are _already_ in QH range.
All we have to do is wait a few days and I'll be confirmed town.
And the possibilities of ReckTrag & FateGrey will be ruled out.
You being silly doesn't make that false.
If I were scum I'd go get a replacement myself and just tell them they only needed to join the game for an hour or so in order to win.
But after a few days I'll be unambiguously confirmed town regardless.

[Llamarble]

You really think Ashblade couldn't be arsed to come on one more time for half an hour at some designated QH period?
Whatever, time will make it obvious you're wrong.

[Llamarble]

/not a quickhammer

[Llamarble]

Whee now I cannot possibly be scum with anyone other than tragedy.

[Llamarble]

Which means there is at least 1 scumpair on this wagon

[Llamarble]

Haha, that's right I'm confirmed town to Tragedy now.
I'd like to see what she thinks.

[Llamarble]

I would really appreciate some unvotes since this wagon has scum on it and there is more information available to think about now.

[Llamarble]

Bah, well played scum. I guess I mixed up townalliance #2 with the scumalliance.
I was kind of hoping for some unvotes and rethinkings and getting to be confirmed town for awhile, hehe.
That Reck/Fate yelling match a couple days ago had me kind of suspicious of the pairing,
and Reck was being outright unreasonable today, but I don't know who I ultimately would have picked given lynch-control.

Kise was the flip that really really surprised me. I was very convinced they were scum.

I think raging is usually just plain effective for the rager rather than pro-town or pro-scum. See multiple personality mafia for town raging.
Basically if you decide who town lynches, you are helping your faction, and raging often helps achieve that.

As for D7, I really cared about lynching you over PZ/Tragedy, which Dram and I wouldn't have, though I don't know if that's what you're specifically talking about.