NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

ToastyToast · Post Post #1750 (ISO) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:45 pm

In post 1749, Iecerint wrote:I think Toasty would be the harder one to convince, because he probably feels more personally responsible to DH, who wanted to lynch Yos.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1751 (ISO) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 5:14 pm

In post 1749, Iecerint wrote:I think Toasty would be the harder one to convince, because he probably feels more personally responsible to DH, who wanted to lynch Yos.

(nods) Not only that, but you also said this close to the end of the day yesterday:

In post 1705, Iecerint wrote:
I think CTD misrepresented his own play D3, so I'm basically convinced he's the one, especially given Hrezs's play, the structure of his replace-in posts, and the players CTD has targeted all game.

No way was CTD going to want to be in a 3 man endgame with just me and you after you said that.

Iecerint · Post Post #1752 (ISO) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 5:57 pm

If only I could find nice towntells in your early play.

As it stands, I think CTD is the scum, but I'd feel EXTREEEEMELY bad about it if DH went to the grave cursing you.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1753 (ISO) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 10:44 pm

In post 1752, Iecerint wrote:If only I could find nice towntells in your early play.

As it stands, I think CTD is the scum, but I'd feel EXTREEEEMELY bad about it if DH went to the grave cursing you.

(shrug) I still don't get what was scummy about my early play. I wish I knew what it is about my early play that's been making people so paranoid lately, I seem to be getting attacked for my early play in most games these days; is it that I like to discuss theory a lot on day 1, or what?

Anyway, I was wrong on day 1, but since then my reads have been excellent and my vote has basically always been on one scum or another. (Para/Bowser day 2, then CTD day 3 until the fake claim, then KJ at the end of day 3, then MBL day 4, Hydra day 5, and CTD day 6 and today. People I've defended were all town as well.) Only wrong votes I've made all game were day 1 and when I briefly voted PJ on day 2 before deciding he was town and going back to Para.

You want an early towntell? How about this?:

In post 940, Yosarian2 wrote:
ToastyToast wrote:@Yosarian: Why rush? If a replacement has a chance of chaning town's mind, let them.

Because he's scum. Why do you want to give the scum a chance to change the town's mind?

Plus, you know, 3 days until deadline.

I refused to unvote Parama/Bowser 3 days before deadline, even after the replacement, and even while being pressured to do so by Toasty, who was basically confirmed town by this point.

If lynching scum isn't a town tell, then I don't know what is.

Amrun · Post Post #1754 (ISO) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 4:37 am

VC7.1

(0) Iecerint
(1) CrashTextDummie - Yosarian2
(1) Yosarian2 - CrashTextDummie
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: Iecerint, ToastyToast

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

V/LA:

Deadline: Sunday, September 25. 11 30pm EST.

Spoiler: Vote History

CrashTextDummie · Post Post #1755 (ISO) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 9:37 am

In post 1752, Iecerint wrote:As it stands, I think CTD is the scum.

I struggle putting into words how frustrating it is to read that. That you still see me as scum even after you acknowledge my genuine frustration and concede that my play on D3 makes sense for doc-CTD and not so much for scum-CTD quite frankly blows my mind. If you're STILL not over that stupid fucking rolecop bullshit, I don't know what else to say. This is the biggest piece of crap fail logic I've ever had to deal with in a game of mafia.

I damn sure hope last night is not figuring into that believe of yours, because it's such an obvious sham. It is clear as day now that Yos' "Iecerint is most confirmed, so he should be protected" spiel was a load of BS to set up his little WIFOM fairy tale today. The only thing he cared about was that, in his mind, Iecerint was more of an ally to him than Toasty. And it just so happens that I thought the same thing. Why in the hell would I consent to protecting Iecerint if I didn't think he was more likely to vote in my favor? As a general rule of thumb, I don't let scum dictate my night actions against my will, in spite of Yos' grandstanding that he "made me do it". It's just another one of his distortions of facts. Are you really that blind?

I'll try to come up with a more constructive post when I've slept over this mess.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1756 (ISO) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 9:57 am

In post 1755, CrashTextDummie wrote:
I damn sure hope last night is not figuring into that believe of yours, because it's such an obvious sham. It is clear as day now that Yos' "Iecerint is most confirmed, so he should be protected" spiel was a load of BS to set up his little WIFOM fairy tale today. The only thing he cared about was that, in his mind, Iecerint was more of an ally to him than Toasty.

You realize that makes no sense, right?

If I was scum, and I was that confident that "Iecerint was more of an ally of me then toasty", and you had promised to protect Icerint, then...why wouldn't I have just killed toasty?

Iecerint · Post Post #1757 (ISO) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 1:53 pm

I agree that Yos probably should not have specified a protection target yesterday. The point of NL with 4 present is that you want someone to die.

I think the play last night was a good one regardless of who was scum.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1758 (ISO) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 3:48 pm

In post 1757, Iecerint wrote:I agree that Yos probably should not have specified a protection target yesterday. The point of NL with 4 present is that you want someone to die.

Having someone who's 100% confirmed town die in a 4 player lynch or lose only hurts the town; letting the scum kill a confirmed innocent doesn't improve the odds at all, since the town is not going to lynch that person anyway.

Iecerint · Post Post #1759 (ISO) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 3:51 pm

Reasonable people (well, town people, at least) have believed that I could be scum with an extra shot, though. So your proposed scenario may not apply, though I personally agree with your implicit thesis that I'm pretty much confirmed.

ToastyToast · Post Post #1760 (ISO) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 3:52 pm

FFF.
@Yosarian: Again, a lot of your posts were bloated/full of unecessary convo.

@CTD: Of course its a WIFOM situation. For one, having 4 people alive is better than having 3. Also, the fact that I am the fence-vote means keeping me alive is perhaps the only chance for a win (If you are scum).

Similarly, Yosarian may have kept me alive because he 1)clearly saw this or 2) Could tell that I was starting to shift my view to you.

I find the first option more realistic in that Yosarian killing me would have increased the chances of your lynch, whilst keeping me alive could lead to problems given my allegiance to DemonHybrid. When there is a clearer outcome to winning, why do it? In my opinion its not ALL WIFOM, as taking me out would simply be the better option for Yosarian as scum.

Iecrint, if I had died, would your opinion have honestly changed about who to lynch?

PEDIT: Iecrint's not having a ton of shots makes him less-confirmable, but he nonetheless is more OBVTOWN then you two.

Iecerint · Post Post #1761 (ISO) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 3:59 pm

Toast death => Yos scum
Toast live => CTD scum

The reason is that TT showed a strong desire not to disappoint DH yesterday, which I think overwhelms the WIFOM implications. But the WIFOM is still there, of course.

CrashTextDummie · Post Post #1762 (ISO) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 6:44 pm

In post 1756, Yosarian2 wrote:You realize that makes no sense, right?

If I was scum, and I was that confident that "Iecerint was more of an ally of me then toasty", and you had promised to protect Icerint, then...why wouldn't I have just killed toasty?

Because Iecerint has, on at least one occasion, stated that in today's metagame he's inclined to take night kills at face value.

I did not consider Toasty to be the fence vote. I thought I was making great progress in convincing Iecerint whereas Toasty got more critical of me towards the end of today. I also perceived Iecerint to be more open to being reasoned with whereas Toasty is less interactive and his voting is more opaque. It didn't even cross my mind that Toasty would vote out of allegiance to DH, since he's shown himself to be an independent thinker on all days I've experienced them playing together. Being a doc is my one edge over Yos, I'd be a complete fool to just give it up by protecting the player I think is more likely to mislynch me.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1763 (ISO) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 10:12 am

In post 1760, ToastyToast wrote:FFF.
@Yosarian: Again, a lot of your posts were bloated/full of unecessary convo.

I like big posts and I can not lie.

Seriously, I highly doubt that scum make longer or "more bloated" posts then town do, or that trying to use that as a scumtell is going to ever help you find scum. If anything, I'd think town are much more likely to share all their thoughts while scum tend to filter there posts more; if you're scum, making more conversation or whatever just gives you more chances to screw up.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1764 (ISO) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 10:18 am

In post 1762, CrashTextDummie wrote:
I did not consider Toasty to be the fence vote. I thought I was making great progress in convincing Iecerint whereas Toasty got more critical of me towards the end of today. I also perceived Iecerint to be more open to being reasoned with whereas Toasty is less interactive and his voting is more opaque. It didn't even cross my mind that Toasty would vote out of allegiance to DH, since he's shown himself to be an independent thinker on all days I've experienced them playing together. Being a doc is my one edge over Yos, I'd be a complete fool to just give it up by protecting the player I think is more likely to mislynch me.

Lol.

Iecerint's comment that you were probably scum was the last thing he said about you yesterday. His opinions were really pretty clear all day. The only reason you agreed to "protect" Iece was that you didn't have any possible way to justify refusing to protect Iece, not after you earlier claimed that you protected Iece over the Xantos the night after Xantos confirmed himself to be a pro-town info role and caught us a scum.

Iecerint · Post Post #1765 (ISO) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 12:37 pm

I don't think that argument appeals to a Yos/CTD-blind party very well. Namely, CTD could have agreed to protect me without much fuss just because he's town and wanted to protect me, which is consistent with his past protects (as you voice).

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1766 (ISO) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 12:50 pm

In post 1765, Iecerint wrote:I don't think that argument appeals to a Yos/CTD-blind party very well. Namely, CTD could have agreed to protect me without much fuss just because he's town and wanted to protect me, which is consistent with his past protects (as you voice).

Sure. Just the fact of him agreeing to "protect" you doesn't actually say anything about his alignment either way. In fact, smart move for him today would have been to just claim that he protected you because he thought you were confirmed town. That's not what he's saying, though.

His whole "I protected Iece because I wanted him to live because I thought he was on my side" defense is the problem here; that really doesn't at all fit with the reality, your opinion yesterday that he was scum was fairly obvious and went right to your final analysis of him on the last page of the thread. If anything, it looks like you got more and more convinced he was scum as the day went on, and the whole "I thought Iece was coming around" thing smells like BS. It looks to me like that whole thing is frankly a flat-out lie about your posting yesterday used in order to try to confuse the issue and to try to defend himself against the nightkill argument.

Iecerint · Post Post #1767 (ISO) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 1:54 pm

I see what you mean. That actually makes sense.

Amrun · Post Post #1768 (ISO) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 2:08 pm

A message from The Fat Lady's Chambers (dead thread):

ToastyToast · Post Post #1769 (ISO) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 4:58 pm

Can the Fat Lady's Chambers just tell us who to lynch instead? That would be more helpful <3

CrashTextDummie · Post Post #1770 (ISO) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:30 pm

Iecerint wrote:Iecerint's comment that you were probably scum was the last thing he said about you yesterday.

That's just a flat out lie. How does this make sense to you, Iecerint? Do you not remember or check back on your own posts?

The last things Iecerint said about me yesterday:

Iecerint wrote:I will grant that your incredulity (here and earlier) appears genuine, though....

Iecerint wrote:THOUGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH now that you mention it, you probably wouldn't have implied that you were the doc with your last posts. It's true that it's BETTER play (since no one but Shanba was likely to be the doctor, and another investigative town role was plausible), but not that it's what would naturally occur to a rolecop scum, I think...

So that is something.

Iecerint wrote:Those are decent points.

I had refuted each and every point in Iece's "I reread and think CTD is scum" post and he agreed with me. He also said that Yos looked scummy to him as well. If that's not coming around, I don't know what is.

Yosarian wrote:you didn't have any possible way to justify refusing to protect Iece, not after you earlier claimed that you protected Iece over the Xantos the night after Xantos confirmed himself to be a pro-town info role and caught us a scum.

If I had thought that Toasty was in my corner and Iece was in your corner, I would have

never

went along with your silly "demand". I'm not going to let the scum tailor the endgame when it is in my power to decide who lives into it. This is madness.

And you're still arguing that a fucking gunsmith is worth more than a vig WHO GUARANTEES VICTORY TO THE TOWN which is still BULLSHIT to the highest degree.

Iecerint, are you seriously going to buy that Yos was all about "who out of our two confirmed players is MORE confirmed" when it comes to last nights protection?

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1771 (ISO) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 10:38 pm

In post 1770, CrashTextDummie wrote:
Iecerint, are you seriously going to buy that Yos was all about "who out of our two confirmed players is MORE confirmed" when it comes to last nights protection?

I really don't get what you're trying to claim my motives are here. If you're trying to argue that I was scum who decided to not nightkill for whatever reason, then why would I have cared who you "protected"?

Your defense really isn't coherent here at all at this point, CTD.

CrashTextDummie · Post Post #1772 (ISO) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:07 am

Don't cherry-pick one sentence and then call the defense incoherent. It wasn't that long of a post to begin with.

I don't know what your motive was, I'm not in the business of mind-reading. It looks plausible to me that you were setting up a bowl of WIFOM though, looking at your posts immediately before and after last night.

Before: "You guys are both confirmed to me but Iecerint is MORE confirmed, therefore we should demand of CTD that he be protected, thus proving he's a liar in case Iecerint dies".

After: "AHA! I, being the genius townie that I am, trapped CTD into protecting the guy who was sure to vote against him, thus forcing him to no-kill! Ain't I super pro-town."

I don't need to know what your scum-motive was in order to point out your lack of town-motive. The "more/less confirmed" business is obvious hogwash. A pro-town player in your shoes would make it a point

not

to show any preference as to which player gets to be the linchpin in a 3-man endgame, because he wouldn't want to telegraph to the scum what his optimal play is.

Iecerint · Post Post #1773 (ISO) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 6:27 am

I've acknowledged that both of you have made good points. That doesn't mean that each acknowledgement represents a 180 in terms of my overall impressions.

Yos wrote:I really don't get what you're trying to claim my motives are here. If you're trying to argue that I was scum who decided to not nightkill for whatever reason, then why would I have cared who you "protected"?

It could be that you thought doing as much would solidify a Yos-allegiance feeling on my part.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1774 (ISO) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 9:18 am

CTD wrote:

I don't need to know what your scum-motive was in order to point out your lack of town-motive. The "more/less confirmed" business is obvious hogwash. A pro-town player in your shoes would make it a point not to show any preference as to which player gets to be the linchpin in a 3-man endgame, because he wouldn't want to telegraph to the scum what his optimal play is.

This is silly. The reason that I made a point of saying it was that at this point I knew that scum had fake-claimed doctor, and once I pointed out that iece was the most confirmed person in the game, the scum who was pretending to be a doctor wouldn't be able to get away with killing him. You already knew, of course, that killing Iece was probably your optimal play if you could get away with it; I just made sure you wouldn't be able to get away with it.

In post 1773, Iecerint wrote:I've acknowledged that both of you have made good points. That doesn't mean that each acknowledgement represents a 180 in terms of my overall impressions.

Yos wrote:I really don't get what you're trying to claim my motives are here. If you're trying to argue that I was scum who decided to not nightkill for whatever reason, then why would I have cared who you "protected"?

It could be that you thought doing as much would solidify a Yos-allegiance feeling on my part.

(shrug) I doubt it. I was actually a little worried that I would piss off/offend Toasty by saying that you were more confirmed then he was, and I didn't want to do that because we need all 3 townies on the same page here in order to win, but I thought it was more important to limit CTD's night options as much as possible.

Anyway, I already said this yesterday, but there's really not going to be that much that could happen today that's going to give you much information. Town and scum just don't act that differently in a 3 or 4 man endgame when they're trying to lynch each other. If you are still undecided, I'd suggest you look back and re-read key parts of the game; especially the points when it was lynch or lose and the town avoided losing. If you're as sure as you're going to get, then let's do this; we've been going back and fourth on "CTD or Yos" for weeks now, and I think we've said just about everything useful that there is to be said.