NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[Iecerint]

I still think your SK counterclaim was weird for CTDscum, as I just stated in my previous post. Your implicit assertion that I have ignored this point is untrue.

You have pointed out several other points that make me doubt that you are scum, too, and I have considered them. There are just too many other things that think otherwise.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest you could be scum of some sort of other.

"DumbtownCTD" is a reflection of the point that most of your reads had been wrong up to that point as town if town. Nothing personal intended, though I can understand how you could take it that way.

Yos-scum actually looks too complicated, not too simple, for me. Hydra's bussing seemed too early, the Yos-Hydra shouting match that continued to develop afterwards was too nuanced, Yos's reads have been too pro-town all game. The main basis for people thinking Yos was scum early on was that he stubbornly had weird town reads on players like Shanba (THOUGH come to think of it, he did FoS Shanba in the post where he made that off-wagon vote D3).

3 hardcore mafia nerds not being on the collective site for 16 cumulative hours during lylo is just very weird to me. I guess it's true of Hydra (Ludi + Thor) regardless of the situation, though....

[Iecerint]

Most of the "evidence" against both of you is very circumstantial. In terms of hard evidence, the best argument against Yosscum is that scum had a 16 hour window to win if Yos is scum earlier, and I would've thought that 3 players (Ludi+Thor+Yos) with that much experience would have lurked moar to take advantage of it. In terms of hard evidence, the best argument against CTDscum is that the doctor gambit may've been risky depending upon any ability CTDscum has.

Did DX ever get confirmation that Yos-GF was not a possible explanation, on its own, for his being blocked (i.e. that at least ALSO being blocked would be necessary to explain the result)? I suppose that would be another piece of hard evidence supporting Yosscum.

I'm not terribly impressed with your read on the Serial Killer, which is all your list of correct reads does for me at this point.

Regarding the early D4 bussing -- for example, by securing enough votes on DX, the scumteam could have won outright. Risking storing potential DX votes on Yos is counter-productive with regard to getting enough town-on-town votes to secure the win.

P-edit: First, both DX and I had perceived "winning strategy" roles, so I could see an argument to kill either of us. You may have known I was out of shots, or you might have decided that it was worth it to kill me because you hedged against the possibility of my being on odd night vig in favor of killing the definite-problem Gunsmith.

Second, Yos was also aware of that "winning strategy," because he articulated it on D4, so your N4 WIFOM analysis doesn't differentiate between the two of you, even if I decided it was legit.

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My role was only a guaranteed win if you assumed certain things about my role -- like, that it had another shot. Same with DX -- you had to assume proper use of the ability. I think the situations were comparable. I can understand your perspective that they are not comparable, but I think that perspective comes from your having made too many assumptions about my status.

If I were in that scum subset, the subset that plans elaborate bussing ahead of time, I would have made clear that we could win with a quicklynch and to check the thread periodically where appropriate. If I found that I could quicklynch, I would make pithy posts to indicate to my scumfriend that I was online and paying attention. Since a quicklynch wins outright, there's no need to split the vote. Not voting or putting the vote elsewhere in the short term is OK, but making a legitimate case for a 3rd way risks splitting the necessary extra town votes and is self-defeating.

Yeah, my point is that your only non-flipped caught-scum was the SK, and scum have an interest in finding the SK, too. MBL tried to get sapo-lynch-cred, too. I do think the doctor claim to lynch him was a towntell, but, as Yos has pointed out, the only plausible doc at the time that you claimed it was Shanba, and a Town Alien had already flipped.

Yos's behavior D4 helped to legitimize the possibility that DX was town from my perspective. I can't remember anyone else who was really supporting him until he announced his crumb.

[Iecerint]

You think I made too many assumptions about your role, which is accurate, but you don't seem to realize how that only explains why I'd protect you as a doc, not why I wouldn't kill you as scum.

I agree with this.

1. I just skimmed MBL's posts that day and I don't see where he's trying "to get sapo-lynch-cred". I don't know where you're getting this from.

He may have called him KJ or the SK, but MBL definitely went kept trying to get credit for lynching the SK. This doesn't interact with either you or Yos, though; I was just using an example to illustrate how anyone can push for an SK lynch.

Define *short term". It took more than 3 days before Xanatos got into lynch range, and both Yos and Hydra had presented themselves as active and opinionated before. I certainly would have raised more than an eyebrow if they had just twiddled their thumbs, they were two of the possible scum candidates after all. There was a general anti-Xanatos sentiment among the town and Hydra was running a "you may not realize it, but Yos is confirmed scum to me" argument that wasn't going to convince anyone to vote outside of Xanatos/MBL. Also define "elsewhere". Where was Hydra gonna put his vote if not on Yos?

It doesn't matter how long the votes are elsewhere, as long as they aren't there long enough to put real votes there. In other words, Hydra not trying too hard to lynch Yos as an alternawagon is a bit null.

"Elsewhere" just means "anywhere else." Whether he had more than one functional third option is irrelevant AFAICT.

And considering that the neighbors had daytalk, it's not unreasonable that the same applied to the scum, re: pithy posts to indicate online status.

If this is the case, it's even MORE pathetic that hypo-Yos-Hydra couldn't get their shit together in 16 hours.

1. I just skimmed MBL's posts that day and I don't see where he's trying "to get sapo-lynch-cred". I don't know where you're getting this from.
2. MBL is a flipped caught-scum. It just took me as long as it took you to catch him.
3. I do not accept my failure to lynch Hydra as a point against me. I had the choice between two scum and happened to go for the one who's still alive.
4. If you hadn't been out of shots, you could add Hydra to my list.

I acknowledge that my reads have been bad. That doesn't mean that townreads on scum are pro-town. I could put Hydra on either list, so I don't think that differentiates.\

I wish I could get some thoughts from Toasty. He probably has different preconceptions and may do a better job of evaluating my perspective.

[Iecerint]

CTD, the basis for assuming something might be up was that I'd skipped shots on N2 and N4, which is consistent with me either being an odd-night vig or a limited-shot vig.

Or a careful vig, but I mean come on.

[Iecerint]

And yes, I acknowledge that your assumption that I have extra shots would tend to make you kill me, not kill DX.

This is a pretty significant point, actually.

[Iecerint]

Why? A vig is huge in endgame, but in that situation, with multiple confirmed innocents, a confirmed cop+doc pair would have been significantly more useful to the town then even a full vig. Like I said, even 1 more cop confirmed innocent would have guaranteed a town victory at that point.

A hypo-GF messes with DX's half of the equation, so it's iffy either way.

Lol. So, it's a "guaranteed win" only if the vig got lucky and shot scum that very night?

Hydra is who I would've killed, so it would've let us win. You've actually stated as much before -- near the start of D6.

[Iecerint]

CTD is correct regarding the missing kills. I did not target anyone except for N1 and N3.

Doctor is actually normatively viewed as a common scum fakeclaim, because it's not confirmable (you can always claim "WELP i protected someone else!").

[Iecerint]

Toast, if your hesitation is because you really prefer to lynch Yos, we can do that. There are a handful of legit CTD towntells that my version of the world can't grapple with very well. (This goes both ways, though.)

[Iecerint]

Oh, thank god. I was thinking I'd feel so guilty about crossing much of the town by lynching CTD, but I really thought he was more likely.

Yay~!

[Iecerint]

Was I a good mod? Is there anything I could have or should have done different to improve your enjoyment of the game?

My only issue is with the flavor font. I couldn't figure out what was bothering me all game until now, and it's that the modscenes used standard text. I guess fancy text is so normative that non-fancy text seemed weird. Maybe just throwing in Bold or something would be nice.

Then again, I don't play Normal games at all, so I don't know what the norms are here. Also, this is clearly a minor point, because I thought you did well with things that actually mattered. THOUGH:

but only this one passed normal review.

Gosh, Normal games sound very boring.

[Iecerint]

Dead thread's awfully pissy.

DH reported strong Yos-Scum feelings to Toasty, and I knew that a large proportion of dead players died thinking Yos was scum (albeit mostly from bad reads on town players like Shanba), so I wanted to be extra careful to make sure I didn't go against the grain AND fuck up.

[Iecerint]

CORRECTION TO FIRST PAGE: CTD WAS LYNCHED ON D8.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG.

also huh ss was here?

[Iecerint]

I think I could've reached a surer decision faster if I'd been more knowledgeable about Normal game norms. For example, when Yos-CTD argued about the plausibility of a Godfather re: gunsmith immunity, I interpreted Yos's claim of impossibility as a scummy "assumption" on Yos's part, because I'm so used to Theme games. Someone more used to Normal norms would probably have seen it as legitimate information.

[Iecerint]

I think it's probably balanced by the "town 50%" philosophy.

Ideally, all factions should have a 33% chance to win IMPO, but that's not standard orthodoxy on this site.

[Iecerint]

GUYS SUPERNATURAL PREMIERE IN 30 MINUTES.

OMG IM EXCITED.