NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[Yosarian2]

Vote:Shanba

For tricking me last time I played with him. For shame!

[Yosarian2]

D'oh, forgot about this game all day yesterday.

Some quick comments on all the stuff I missed:

The Hydra debate was pretty null on all sides.

However, Shanba's defense of Hydra looks pretty town (unless Hydra flips scum, of course.) Dropping my random vote now:

unvote:shanba

kondi2424 is probably town. The whole "Let's lynch me to confirm the whole group" thing sounds like newbie town.

It's possible the whole neighborhood is town. Neither of them seem especially scummy to me.

[Yosarian2]

Meransiel wagon to date that germinated solely based on the role-fishing accusation

– Shanba, DH, Kondi, Hydra, Petro

If Meran is Town then at least 1 scum jumped on this easy wagon. Role-fishing is one of the easiest accusations to make that seems like a good scum-tell but rarely is.

Why is that?

Scum have to rolefish. Especially in a large game, the scum need to find the town power roles before the town power find them. It's one of the biggest differences between scum and town, and therefore one of the most useful scum tells there is.

[Yosarian2]

Why is that?

Scum have to rolefish. Especially in a large game, the scum need to find the town power roles before the town power find them. It's one of the biggest differences between scum and town, and therefore one of the most useful scum tells there is.

Um, whut?

If Meran is Town than jumping on a Role-fishing accusation is a very easy way to drive a mislynch. Do you disagree?

That's a bizzare question, honestly. Why are you assuming Meran is town here?

You basically said "rolefishing isn't a scum tell". I said "Yes, it is." And you responded with a kind of bizarre leap from there to assuming that Meren is town and that everyone who's trying to lynch him is scum trying to get a mislynch.

If you really want an answer to that question, then, uh, if someone is town and does something really, really scummy like rolefishing, then yes, pointing out that they did something really really scummy is a good way to get them lynched. It's also a good way to scumhunt or to try to figure out their alignment.

Also you didn't answer my direct question - who is Scum?

If I knew that, I'd be voting for someone.

I'm considering sheeping PJ onto Meren; only problem is that, other then the role fishing thing (with I really want an explanation from Meren about), I don't think the rest of Meren's posting is bad.

I've also got a weird gut feeling about you, mostly because of your attacks on the neighbors. If all 3 neighbors are, in fact, town, then posts like this:

Do you think we should restrict our lynching to those three players to maximize the chances of hitting scum?

make me think that you might be a scum who's trying to chain multiple mislynches off of setup speculation and attempts to outguess the mod. I'm also a little weirded out by how hard you were riding the DH thing. I also don't agree with you that Sensfan trying to pressure Hydra into acting in a way that Sensfan seems to honestly think is more pro-town is a scumtell on Sensfan's part; early on day 1, trying to pressure someone into acting in a more pro-town way is often a good idea.

I'm not really confident about you being scum, because I could see a town thinking in some of the ways you have said so far, but if you could explain yourself a little more, I'd appreciate it.

1. Do you really think Sensfan is scum for trying to use pressure to change Hydra's behavior in a way he thought was more pro-town? Or do you not think that's what sensfan was trying to do? I don't really get your attack here.

2. Do you actually think that chain-lynching the neighbors to find the scum that might or might not be in that group is a good idea?

3. Why are you making such a big deal about DH not getting what was going on? If I went into a neighbor quicktopic and I saw someone saying "hey, guys, you can lynch me, but do so tomorrow" or something, I'd be suspicious of the guy to, until I understood what he was getting at. Is this tied to your "one of the neighbors must be scum" theory?

4. Do you really think that power role fishing isn't a scumtell? Why are you assuming that Meran is town?

[Yosarian2]

If you really want an answer to that question, then, uh, if someone is town and does something really, really scummy like rolefishing, then yes, pointing out that they did something really really scummy is a good way to get them lynched. It's also a good way to scumhunt or to try to figure out their alignment.

So if Meran flips Town you are in agreement that at least 1 scum is likely found in that subset of players?

No. That line of Meran's also bothered me, and I'm not surprised it's bothered other people.

Irrespective of Meran's alignment, I don't have a problem with people questioning him or attacking him about that line. Could scum make that argument if they wanted to push the Meran wagon, if Meran is town? Yeah, they could, but I'd also expect to see pro-town people making that argument as well, so the whole thing is pretty null.

I’ll have to review Victorian Vampire Mafia to see if you were so conservative with your vote Day 1 there.

Eh. I'm generally not. It's just that none of the active people seem especially scummy to me, and there isn't anyone I could really call a lurker 72 hours into the game, so I'm kind of at a loss to where to start. I'll hopefully find a good place to put my vote soon.

I'm considering sheeping PJ onto Meren; only problem is that, other then the role fishing thing (with I really want an explanation from Meren about), I don't think the rest of Meren's posting is bad.

Hmmm why would you sheep PJ? Is it past history?

Yeah, pretty much. IMHO, PJ is one of the top 5 mafia players of all time, and one of the best scumhunters on the site. And, as you pointed out, I'm not voting anyone right now; I don't really like my vote not doing anything, I like putting it to work.

I've also got a weird gut feeling about you, mostly because of your attacks on the neighbors. If all 3 neighbors are, in fact, town, then posts like this:

Let’s circle back … aside from your reads (and you have specifically said you have solid scum reads) why are you assuming the 3 neighbors are Town? You are doing the exact same thing (making a relational observation that is dependant on unknown information) that I did with Meran’s wagon above that you state is really weird.

That's really not the same thing. In the case of Meran, I'm at the point of thinking "was he rolefishing? Was that a scum gambit on his part?" and you seem to have completely skipped that step and gone right to "who is trying to mislynch him for rolefishing?" That's the thing that feels odd to me.

With the neighbors, the reason I added that line is is because of course if one of them is scum, then attacking the neighbors like that can't be a scum tell. Nonetheless, if they are town, then scum would LOVE to subtly plant the idea "Hey, one of them has to be scum, so let's keep lynching them until we find the scum!" I mean...chaining 3 mislynches in a row like that would put the town pretty far in the hole, don't you think?

To use your phrasing from before, if the neighbors are town, would you agree with me that at least one of the people pushing the "one of the neighbors is scum, let's lynch neighbors" line of reasoning is probably scum?

If it isn’t ok for me to make said relational observations that may be useful later why is it ok for you to do so?

Relational observations are fine. Like I said, though, I don't think yours about Meran is valid, and beyond that, I don't really understand why you're already thinking in terms of "who are the scum trying to mislynch him" when we don't know his alignment and he's only at 4 votes.

I'm also a little weirded out by how hard you were riding the DH thing.

So it doesn’t strike you as odd at all that DH made the same mistake Kondi did the first time he drew a Neighbor role PM yet it didn’t even cross his mind to question Kondi about his QT post pre-game or look at Kondi’s history as opposed to just voting him right out of the gate?

No, not really. I don't think most people would have jumped to the conclusion that Kondi misunderstood the neighbor role just based on that one post of his, even if they've made that same mistake before.

1. Do you really think Sensfan is scum for trying to use pressure to change Hydra's behavior in a way he thought was more pro-town? Or do you not think that's what sensfan was trying to do? I don't really get your attack here.

I think he’s scum for the manner in which he is crafting said attack. He’s pre-concluding on scummy behavior that has yet to officially happen as support for his “I’m not moving my vote” statement.

Furthermore focused solely on driving said “Pro-Town” behavior as opposed to scum-hunting. If Hydra behaves scummy (via showing Cognitive Dissonance, which is the thrust of Sens suspicion) then they are scummy for it regardless of whether posts are signed or not. The post signing element is a pointless procedure that doesn’t add ‘Towniness’ to Hydra, IMO.

Eh. Once you start pressuring someone to change their behavior, it usually involves a vote and a lot of bluster. Lines like "I'm not moving my vote until you do" (insert behavior here) are pretty common, as are threats, demands, picking at minor points, and generally a lot of yelling.

I, personally, don't think that the "signing the name" thing is a big deal, but I think that Sensfan DOES honestly believe that it is, and I don't really see a lot of scum motivation behind the hydra vote.

That being said, I'd like to hear more from Sensfan about who he actually thinks is scummy.

[Yosarian2]

...
Then some other players actually came in and said (in as many words) "This is stupid, is null...heck, you're scummy for still pushing it"
What is Sens doing? He's *still* pushing it. Yeah, it's silly, yeah, it's terrible, but he clearly and honestly believes he's right.
...
Sens is mislead tunnel town.

This defense of Sens, from the guy who Sens has been tunneled on all game, really gives me warm and fuzzy and townie vibes about Hydra.

I like the attack against AGM as well. Also, AGM is another one who's trying to chain lynches based on the "1 neighbor is scum" theory, more blatantly then MagnaofIllusion is, and yet he's still voting for Hydra at the same time.

You know, I think I've found a place to put my vote.

Vote:AlmasterGM

[Yosarian2]

You don't have to fucking kill somebody to see their alignment.

Not at all what I was saying. Attacking someone/questioning them/ pressuring them/ect. about a scummy action and seeing how they respond is one of the best ways to find out someone's alignment

Your attention span amazes me.

Yes, I saw that. That's not really an explanation, though. Why would one of them being a power role mean that another one had to be scum?

Just as one hypothetical example, I could easily see a mod, say, giving one member of a neighborhood a vig kill, making the other two town, and then sitting back and laughing as the vig kills his two neighbors out of paranoia and mod WIFOM.

Anyway, I just don't see why you made that assumption in the first place.

I don't think the rest of Meren's posting is bad

What is bad about my request? I see why it is scummy, I called it risky even before stating it, but why is it ANTITOWN. So far you attacked me, not my argument.

Um, because if anyone answered that question, in any way, it hurts the town and helps the scum. The town doesn't want the scum to know who has a power role and who doesn't, because that way, the scum doesn't know who to kill. That's the whole reason that scum rolefish, and the reason that town don't. I didn't think I had to say that, it seemed too obvious.

That's really not the same thing. In the case of Meran, I'm at the point of thinking "was he rolefishing? Was that a scum gambit on his part?" and you seem to have completely skipped that step and gone right to "who is trying to mislynch him for rolefishing?" That's the thing that feels odd to me.

Your logic is astonishing. So I'M scummy because MOI doesn't think I'm scummy. Lol.

hmm? How did you get that from that post? I didn't say anything like that at all; that post doesn't have anything to do with your alignment, only with MoI's.

In fact, when I was attacking MoI for seeming to jump right to the conclusion that you were town and then attacking people for "trying to mislynch you", what I was wondering was if MoI is scum who already knows you're town from his role PM.

And I am still annoyed that the neighborhood roleclaim had no results. I really think it's a decent idea.

I still think it's a really bad idea to get the neighbors to claim if they have any power roles or not. All it does is make things easier for the scum to know who to kill (and/or roleblock, if the scum have roleblockers). Make a case against one of them, or don't, but there's no need for any of them to claim any more then they already had at this point.

[Yosarian2]

Again, stop generalizing. You are not getting anything new from me on that particular subject. Not because I don't want to give anything new, but because I can't. I made my statement. Live with it or don't live with it. But don't expect any hidden layers of undisclosed logic.

Who said anything about "hidden layers of undisclosed logic"? You are responding, and that's how we can get a read on you. If someone is under zero pressure and nothing they do is questioned or attacked, it's usually a lot harder to tell what their alignment is.

Because a PR sharing all his results with a full-town neighborhood at night just in case he would be dying the night he does it is VERY broken. VERY. I know that works only for investigative roles, protective roles and roleblockers, but...whait, no buts, that's almost all of them!

Um...yes, a cop with neighbors would be crazy strong. That's true if he's in an "all town" neighborhood or not, though; a cop with neighbors would likely investigate them first, and then if one is scum, communicate all his results with whichever one is town.

Oh. Misunderstood.
So you think my alignment must be different from MoI's?

I wouldn't say "must" about almost anything at this point. More that was one hypothesis to explain the rather odd way he seemed to just assume you were town. Nothing solid, but I was hoping he could explain why he seemed to be assuming you were town. I still am, in fact.

Nope.

1. First and foremost, it is more beneficial for scum, at least in Larges, to protect themselves than kill PR. So if we see those PR's not dying, it means either

a. Scum is in the neighborhood and the mafia is trying to hide who said scum actually is by letting the number of neighbors high, for mislynches.

or

b. Said PR's have a higher chance of being scum.

Eh. Possibly, although there's a lot of WIFOM involved. The idea, though, of "let's just have the power roles claim so we get a little bit of dubious WIFOM data from the scum killing the outed power role" seems unwise at best.

And finally, would they all claim VT NOTHING CHANGES.

You kidding? That's a HUGE change that would badly hurt the town. Every VT that's outed dramatically increases the odds of the scum killing the real power roles. (And, no, I don't consider a neighbor with no other power to be a "power role.")

Make a case against one of them, or don't,

That's not the point here. Why, for fuck's sake, should scum be let free from scrutiny just because there's no

non-game specific

reason they're scummy, or because they're not giving off scumslips? I am not forced to scumhunt on behavior alone, and sometimes suspicion does not come from the player's mindset itself, but his

slot

.

That can be part of your case, if you want. I never said you can't use information about roles or claims or whatever as part of a case. If you think that we should lynch one of the neighbors today, say so, and say why. If enough people agree with you that it looks like he might get lynched, THEN he can claim. There's no reason for him to do so before that point.

Also, why make cases against them, if I DON'T intend them to get lynched until at least 1 night has passed (which my suggestion clearly implies)? It's aberrant.

If you don't intend to get them lynched today, then it's a REALLY bad idea to try to get them to fullclaim today.

[Yosarian2]

I like the attack against AGM as well. Also, AGM is another one who's trying to chain lynches based on the "1 neighbor is scum" theory, more blatantly then MagnaofIllusion is, and yet he's still voting for Hydra at the same time.

People keep using this buzzword without any context. I'm not saying, "plow 'em all down" - I'm saying it's a solid, small pool to look for scum in. Example: if you have two competing cop claims, you lynch until you hit the liar. It's easy because you have a small pool of people in which one is probably lying. This is the same thing except it's not as surefire ... but it's still solid. Most neighborhoods include scum, so if one of them is acting scummy, you've got a really high chance of nailing sucm in that tiny pool. There's no reason not to take that.

If we knew that there was a scum in that group, that might not be a bad idea. But we don't.

If there aren't any mafia in the group of neighbors, then I would expect the mafia to be saying exactly what you're saying now, "lynch until you hit the liar". Except if there isn't a liar, that means three successive mislynches, three wasted days.

Basically, if they are all town, I would expect to see scum in the group of people pushing for the successive lynching of them, because if the scum convince the town of that it's such a huge boon to the scumteam.

[Yosarian2]

Yes, if all three Neighbors are Town then if at least one person specifically attempting to start a wagon on one of them solely based on the ‘1 of 3 must be scum’ logic alone they were probably scum.

I disagree that anyone is doing that. AGM would be the closest but I still don't see that.

Let me ask you – why did you immediately jump to the line of thought that all three Neighbors are Town? Aside from lack of scummy posting (which you admit no-one is really doing much of yet via your unwillingness to vote) you seem to be approaching the Neighbor situation in a way that you specifically stated is ‘odd’ regarding my play.

(shrug) I think it's likely they're all town. I don't know exactly how likely, but none of them seem scummy to me, and I don't know if the mod would follow the cliche "one and exactly one neighbor is always scum".

Also, the way people seemed to jump right to the conclusion that one of them must be scum and let's start lynching them bothers me. I know that I, as town, would not jump to that conclusion without some reason, but I also know that I, as scum, would be incredibly tempted to try to subtly plant that idea in the heads of the town if it wasn't actually true. Some risk, but the potential payoff if the town buys that conclusion and it is false is just huge. Basically, any time I see someone make that kind of assumption without a REALLY good reason for thinking that, it sets of warning bells in my head.

Nothing solid, but I was hoping he could explain why he seemed to be assuming you were town. I still am, in fact.

You are going to be waiting forever then because as I said before I’m not assuming he is Town.

Meh. You poured a lot of thought into that hypothetical situation, though, and made cases on several people off of the attacks on Meran.

Do you think he is probably town, at this point?

[Yosarian2]

If we knew that there was a scum in that group, that might not be a bad idea. But we don't.

It's statistically likely.

(shrug) If there's a 50% chance that there's 1 scum in the group of neighbors, and a 50% chance that there are zero scum in the group, then that means that any given neighbor has a 1/6 chance of being scum. Which is significantly lower then a random lynch, which in most games has about a 1/4 chance of hitting scum.

If there aren't any mafia in the group of neighbors, then I would expect the mafia to be saying exactly what you're saying now, "lynch until you hit the liar". Except if there isn't a liar, that means three successive mislynches, three wasted days.

That's not my advocacy, BUT let's assume it is and talk for the sake of talking. Suppose there IS a mafia in the group, you would expect the scum to be saying the opposite, wouldn't you?

Possibly. If there was a scum in that group, then the scum probably would be arguing to not lynch the neighbors.

Of course, I never said "don't lynch them", I said "if you think one of them is scum, make a case against that person."

Now which is more statistically likely?

I don't know. Have you done a meta study on recent mafia games with neighbors?

I'll put my head on the line and say that if we get near endgame and all the neighbors have flipped town, you can whip out this conversation and call me scum. Are you going to do the same and say if one of them

does

flip scum, you defended an advocacy that scum would have defended?

If one of them is scum, would scum have come out against blindly lynching neighbors? Possibly, sure. If someone wants to try to use that as an argument against me at some point later in the game, I'm sure they will.

That being said, the way you've argued in favor of lynching neighbors but then never actually voted one doesn't actually look good for you if one of them is scum, either.

By the way, I'm, not "waiting until endgame" to call you scum. I'm calling you scum right now. And it's not just your stance on the neighbors. I also think everything else about your play is scummy, especially the way you still have your vote on Hydra based on a start-of-day-1 mafia theory disagreement about what the proper pro-town way to play a hydra is.

[Yosarian2]

Yet you’ve been attacking both AGM and I for saying “we must lynch from the Neighbors” which neither of us has.

I think I mentioned this before, but what I would most expect the scum to do would be to subtly plant the idea that "one of the neighbors must be scum, let's lynch in that pool until we find them" without really trying to take the lead and forcing the issue themselves, with the inevitable backlash that would come. That is, I would be LESS suspicious of someone who was ACTUALLY arguing that "we must lynch from the neighbors" and backing that up with a full attack on one of the neighbors and a vote. What both you and, to a larger extent, AGM, is doing, is actually scummier then that, because it leaves you both with the "well, I didn't REALLY mean that" escape hatch after the plan goes badly for the town.

[Yosarian2]

Going to be away for the weekend.

[Yosarian2]

I'm back.

I'm still happy with my vote on AGM. He still really hasn't done anything except vote for Hydra for a weak reason and the scummy neighbors argument he was making.

I know it's hard to get momentum going on a wagon on someone who's not saying anything, but it really shouldn't be. The fact that he hasn't said anything should be another reason to vote him, not a reason to ignore him.

[Yosarian2]

Mod, can we get a prod on sensfan, please?

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian 233 - Without walling...I disagree, and my opinion will be proven correct when one of the neighbors flips scum. And then you will be the scummy one by your own logic ("Scum are pushing neighbor-scum because they know they are all town" --> Scum are pushing all town neighbors because they know one is scum). But for now, I don't care.

The difference is, is that you are jumping to conclusions for no apparent reason, which is scummy since there's a possible scum motive for doing so and no obvious reason a townie would jump to that conclusion, while I am simply not coming to any conclusion on the subject without information.

Anyway, if you're that sure that one of the neighbors is scum, then why aren't you voting any of them, and instead are still keeping on your start of day 1 "hydra should sign his posts" vote?

[Yosarian2]

If Sens doesn't start doing something soon, I could get behind a lurker wagon on him.

That being said, I'd rather lynch AGM, who I really think is scum.

[Yosarian2]

Hey, just got mod prodded because I forgot to mention my V/LA in this game, going to be on vacation until July 4th.

Still happy with the AGM wagon. This:

Yosarian 233 - Without walling...I disagree, and my opinion will be proven correct when one of the neighbors flips scum. And then you will be the scummy one by your own logic ("Scum are pushing neighbor-scum because they know they are all town" --> Scum are pushing all town neighbors because they know one is scum). But for now, I don't care.

Sounded like he was completly sure that one of the neighbors was scum. I asked him why he wasn't voting any of the neighbors then, and he ignored me. He moved his vote to Snow White, who was also not a neighbor, because of lurking.


He then continues to try to have it both ways with the neighbors:

@MBL #487 - Your entire argument revolves around a false dichotomy. I'm saying there is likely one scum in the neighborhood. I said if I HAD TO CHOOSE, I'd choose Parama. You take this and say "You find Parama scummy and think one of the neighbors is scum BUT WON'T VOTE PARAMA. WHY?!?! SCUMMY!!!!" It isn't that black and white. Like I specifically stated, the Parama read was a forced offering because someone asked. I have stated

repeatedly

that I am not voting for a neighbor because I don't know which one I want to vote for yet. I have also stated repeatedly that I don't want to just

kill them all, I want to use it as a metric to increase our chances of finding scum if someone from that pool is acting scummy.

He's SURE one of the neighbors is scum, and is trying to scare me off of defending them because I'll look bad later when his opinion is proven correct "when one of the neighbors flips scum". No if, no hesitation; he sounded complety sure. He even has an opinion on which neighbor is the scummiest. And yet, he won't vote for him.

If one of the neighbors is scum, AGM is probably scum trying to distance. If all of the neighbors are town, then he's probably trying to chain mislynches. Either way, the combination of confidence in the scummyness of the neighbors and the refusal to vote for them makes no sense if AGM is town.

On a side note, Parama's most recent posts are somewhere between useless and terrible. Post better, give better answers to PJ's questions. Not really happy with you right now.

[Yosarian2]

Guys, I will put a very simple question.

Consider I am not an idiot. Why would I want the neighbors to out their PRs day 1?

Please answer this, it is important.

Meransiel, you're town.

No need to explain yourself further.

I NEED TO EXPLAIN MYSELF FURTHER. NOW ANSWER THE FUCKING QUESTION!

Uh, ok.

One obvious possibility for someone to ask that question would be if you are scum, trying to figure out who to kill. It's also possible that you really believed what you said, and really thought that one of the neighbors was going to claim a power role and that would somehow prove that one of the other neighbors must be scum, but that never really made a lot of sense to me. I could think of other possible motivations, but rather then speculate, you could just tell us.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, another motivation just occurred to me. If you're claiming you have some kind of role info, Mer, I'm fine with having the neighbors fullclaim first before you get into any specifics.

[Yosarian2]

Parama looks pretty bad to me right now. His attempted nitpicking of Mastin's case is a pretty sad defense, and he doesn't seem at all interested in trying to find scum. Of course Mastin wasn't saying that "DH and Prama know each other's alignment".

In any case, Parama, I have no idea who, if anyone, you suspect right now. At the end of the day yesterday, your only suspect seemed to be MoI, who is now known to be town, and you haven't done any scumhunting today at all, other then the mastin vote.

Vote:Parama

On a side note, PJ's posts basically just looks like "we should kill people in the group of unconfirmds" Which, duh, is of course what we're going to do. DH's reaction to that seems a little extreme.

[Yosarian2]

FoS: Yosarian2

. Long post ahead.

1.)

I was not particularly impressed with your “scum have to rolefish” argument against Meransiel/MagnaofIllusion on Day One. I agree Meransiel’s role-fishing was

bad

(i.e.,

antitown

), and it was enough reason for me to at least pressure him.

But you seemed to go so far as to say it is always a scum tell. Despite the fact that Meransiel was not being the least bit subtle about it. Even to me, it was a pretty weak case for rolefishing. It’s hard to put this in the right words, but essentially: it feels like you took an exceedingly easy-to-defend policy (rolefishing is bad), and that you nevertheless took it

too far

and without good reason. I’m not completely sure I believe you would buy what you’re selling. Meransiel's rolefishing was so very blatant that I'm still surprised you never seemed to acknowledge it over your extended analysis on the subject.

Eh? Of course it was a fairly weak example of rolefishing. You'll notice I never voted meransiel over that, even though I wasn't voting anyone at all at the time, which I obviously would have if I thought it was a strong scumtell.

What I was really trying to get at was an explanation from MoI about his odd post there. His sentence, which was:

Role-fishing is one of the easiest accusations to make that seems like a good scum-tell but rarely is

was just bizarre. Rolefishing is one of the most reliable scumtells there is, because scum have to rolefish.

What I was trying to get out of him was exact ally what you just said: I wanted to know if he was defending Meransiel was because he thought it wasn't a good example of rolefishing, or because he actually believed rolefishing wasn't a scum tell for some reason, or that he had a pro-town read on him from somewhere else; or, if he was doing what he was doing for a more scummy reason. MoI's post there seemed off to me, so I poked at it to try to get him to explain himself.

2.)

I was similarly not impressed when you had a strange argument with MagnaofIllusion about whether he was assuming Meransiel was Town. I never once got the impression that MagnaofIllusion assumed any such thing. MagnaofIllusion's statement:

If

Meran is Town then at least 1 scum jumped on this easy wagon. Role-fishing is one of the easiest accusations to make that seems like a good scum-tell but rarely is.

…. quite clearly assumes no such thing. Which is why it contains the word “if.” In fact, I really can’t differentiate it from your first substance of the game:

However, Shanba's defense of Hydra looks pretty town (unless Hydra flips scum, of course.)

Flip these words around, and you have “

if

Hydra flips scum, then Shanba does not look pretty Town.” Playing mafia is

all about

“if X, then Y,” even if not used in those exact words. And furthermore, your attack on MagnaofIllusion for that statement has continually felt off since in the

exact same post

, you said the following:

I've also got a weird gut feeling about you, mostly because of your attacks on the neighbors.

If all 3 neighbors are, in fact, town

, then posts like [insert MagnaofIllusion post] make me think that you might be a scum who's trying to chain multiple mislynches off of setup speculation and attempts to outguess the mod.

For the record, I do not buy into your “explanation” from Post 175, which attempted to differentiate MagnaofIllusion's use of the word "if" from yours. It looks to me like you were doing the exact same thing MagnaofIllusion was doing.

Meh. There's nothing inherently wrong with a conditional statement. But the way MoI was going about that was just weird. There's nothing wrong with say "A's attack on B is scummy, unless B is scum" when the attack *itself* seems scummy. But Shanba's attack on Meran didn't seem at all scummy; in fact, it made perfect sense to me at the time.

Again, what I was *expecting* to happen was something like MoI saying "I was thinking Mere was probably town because of" (whatever). Or "I think that attack on Meren was bad because" (whatever). I just wanted him to explain his logic. Because without some kind of reason that either about the attack being scummy or about the person being attacked seeming town, "X is bad for attacking Y if Y is town" is basically a meaningless sentence.

Both of those examples of mine were attacks that I specifically disliked for a specific reason.

3.)

Although you admittedly asked why you would “sheep” my vote and vote for Meransiel, your answer (that I’m one of the “top five” players on the site) continually feels to me like it is a bit gratuitous.

(shrug) I made an offhand comment about how I'd normally like to sheep on you, but I couldn't here because I didn't agree with you. Someone asked, so I answered. Sorry if compliments make you uncomfortable, heh.

4.)

I didn’t like your first response to Meransiel in Post 188. Essentially, Meransiel was continually being asked to explain something, so he eventually said that he could not explain it any further, and that people should not expect “hidden layers of undisclosed logic.”

And

your

response was basically, “who said anything about hidden layers of undisclosed logic?” That has always struck me as a bad a response.

Meransiel

said something about hidden layers of undisclosed logic. I make those kinds of statements all the time when I've explained myself and somebody asks for

more

explanation.

Did you actually read the conversation in context? This seems like an odd comment on your part.

I said that you attack someone so you an figure out their alignment. He said "You don't have to lynch someone to figure out their alignment." I explained that that wasn't what I meant, that how people respond to being attacked, how they react when they're pressured, can give you a good read on their alignment. He then went into this weird tangent about "hidden layers of undisclosed logic", which didn't really have anything to do with what I was talking about.

5.)

This statement rubs me the wrong way:

Also, the way people seemed to jump right to the conclusion that one of them must be scum and let's start lynching them bothers me.

I know that I, as town, would not jump to that conclusion without some reason, but I also know that I, as scum

, would be incredibly tempted to try to subtly plant that idea in the heads of the town if it wasn't actually true.

Huh?

Isn't that how everyone scumhunts, is you figure out what you would do as town and what you would be tempted to do as scum in any given situation?

6.)

I think you might have been fudging statistics with this gem:

(shrug) If there's a 50% chance that there's 1 scum in the group of neighbors, and a 50% chance that there are zero scum in the group, then that means that any given neighbor has a 1/6 chance of being scum. Which is significantly lower then a random lynch, which in most games has about a 1/4 chance of hitting scum.

This is just dumb, but I didn’t think it was worth belaboring the point on Day One. In my opinion, the Neighbors are

just as likely to be scum as anybody else

. So trying to use math to say that lynching a neighbor is “significantly lower than a random lynch” is just an absurd conclusion to come to.

I don't think that, in a vacuum, a neighbor is as likely scum as anyone else, because of the reason I gave. That being said, when a neighbor is acting scummy, you lynch them for acting scummy. You just don't lynch them for being a neighbor, though.

7.)

Finally, I was

not

impressed with your response to Meransiel asking people to answer his question about why he would want the neighbors to fully claim:

One obvious possibility for someone to ask that question would be if you are scum, trying to figure out who to kill. It's also possible that you really believed what you said, and really thought that one of the neighbors was going to claim a power role and that would somehow prove that one of the other neighbors must be scum, but that never really made a lot of sense to me.

I could think of other possible motivations, but rather then speculate, you could just tell us.

Basically, you take the opportunity to make a backhanded comment that Meransiel was scummy. More importantly, you said you were

not going to speculate

. But then you IMMEDIATELY POST THIS:

Actually, another motivation just occurred to me. If you're claiming you have some kind of role info, Mer, I'm fine with having the neighbors fullclaim first before you get into any specifics.

Multiple problems with this post. FIRST, you just speculated. After you said you wouldn’t speculate.

And SECOND – and perhaps most ironically – you basically ROLEFISHED from Meransiel. Which is pretty damned funny since you spent practically all of Day One arguing how rolefishing is scummy.

Wrong on both counts.

The first response was me answering his question directly, to see where he was going with this. So of course I was going to mention both the possible scum motivation, and the possible town motivation behind his action. I had already talked about that yesterday.

What I realized right after I hit sumbit was that the reason Meran was asking that question was that he was about to claim tracker, or something like it. I decided I wanted the neighbors to claim after they knew he was the tracker, but *BEFORE THEY KNEW WHO HE HAD TRACKED.* I wasn't rolefishing, i was trying to *DELAY* Meran claiming the rest of his role. I wish he had listened to me there; if they had claimed before Meran claimed his action last night, they might would have been scared into being honest, and I would have loved to hear what Parama and DH's response would have been (especially if it was going to be "well, I targeted the guy who died last night, but I did so because..." (insert weak excuse here). )

Fixed a tag. -Amrun

[Yosarian2]

First

of all, this is fishing for whether Meransiel has "some kind of role info" to begin with. Because no matter what answer Meransiel gives you, you learn something about his role. What if Meransiel was actually a Townie? Then his response of "no" would have told you something. In other words, that in itself was fishing for whether Meransiel had information pertaining to the neighbors. The simple question of asking whether somebody has role information is the very

definition

of fishing.

It was obvious that Meran was about to claim to have an information role. Once I thought about what he was doing, I could see that he was very clearly setting up for that. I mean, come on. I was just trying to say that if he did have information about the neighbors, that they should claim first, before he does.

Second

, you advocated having

all

of the Neighbors claim if Meransiel had information. Emphasis on

all

the Neighbors. As to opposed to, you know, the

particular

Neighbor Meransiel

might

have had information about.

YES. Of course I was. Get the neighbors to claim in a situation where they know that someone may or may not have tracked one of them. They'll either be forced to tell the truth, or to lie and risk being caught.

If we had done that, then I think we would know right now who, if any, of the neighbors are scum or SK who made a kill last night,

no matter if Meran had targeted them or not

. Considering that two of the neighbors are the town's #1 and #2 suspects (Para and DH), this would be very much worth the cost.

But all of that was contingent on Meran saying that he wanted them to for a role-based reason.

Third

,

after

all the Neighbors full-claimed, you were advocating that Meransiel should claim directly afterwards.

If he was going to demand that multiple people claim because of his role-based information, which I thought he was about to do, then of course he should claim afterwards. Once you've done that, you're basically claimed anyway.

So in other words, if Meransiel did not have information, you would narrow down his role -- because you fished.

Pfft. He would only have to respond to that post of mine at all if he was trying to demand that the neighbors claim. If that wasn't what he was doing, then he didn't have to share any information at all.

And if he did have information, you were essentially advocating that

four players

role-claim. If that's not fishing, then I apparently don't know what is.

Yes, if he had information about one of the neighbors, then yes, having all the neighbors claim before they knew which of them he had information on would have been pro-town.

[Yosarian2]

:eyebrow:

What the hell is wrong with expecting all the neighbors to claim if a tracker tracked one of them doing something suspicious? You do know that they're most likely either scum or vanilla, right? I can't remember ever seeing a neighbor with a town power role in a normal game.

[Yosarian2]

(sigh) What do you expect from me, consistency or something?

I never really attacked Meran directly for rolefishing, nor did I vote for him; I was more trying to get a read on MoI then anything, and I ended up not voting for him either. Still, "I've never seen a neighbor with a power role in a normal game" doesn't mean that you should go and ask people if they have power roles or not without a reason; just because something is unlikely, doesn't mean it's impossible; and if it was impossible then asking about it still doesn't make any sense. Plus, I was kind of hoping that the scum wouldn't realize how unlikely it was for the neighbors to be non-vanilla in a normal game, and trying to give the impression that it was more likely then it really was to hopefully throw the scum off and keep our real power roles safer.

Meran being a tracker changes everything, though. Even a chance at getting real role information from a tracker, and getting the best possible value out of that information, totally overrides wildly unlikely scenarios like "what if one of the neighbors is also a doctor". If I had realized on day 1 that Meran was asking for the neighbors to claim because of a role-based reason on his part, I would have handled that very differently.

[Yosarian2]

@MrBuddyLee

, I want your opinion on Yosarian2.

Possible scum. He settled for an AGM vote all day on the "one neighbor is scum chain lynch" reasoning, and was more theory than scumhunting D1. Didn't really assess Parama, saporo, Shanba, Hrez, PJ or me D1. Expressed willingness to sheep you on to Meransiel despite not really finding Meransiel scummy, which was odd.

He was fairly quick to clear kondi and Sens, which is somewhat townish behavior if kondi's town.

I didn't "settle" for a AGM vote, I was really confident he was scum. His play didn't make sense as town. It wasn't just the "one neighbor is scum chain lynch" thing, it was that he was making that argument and trying to convince the town of it, and then refusing to follow through and then actually make a case on a neighbor, or even vote one. Felt like he was trying to plant a bad idea in the hopes someone else would do it. His responses to being attacked also seemed pretty bad. Yeah, it turns out I was wrong about AGM, but I still can't see where I messed up in my logic or where I should have gotten a town read off of him.

I did decide Parama was acting scummy towards the end of the day, and I said so. I also did specifically say that I thought Shanba was town early in the day.

[Yosarian2]

Back, ish. Skimmed the walls, and say that Yosarian2 definitely came out of the losing end in the argument.

No, I didn't. Or if it did, it doesn't matter because everyone should have realized that PJ's theory that I had some kind of scum motive here is clearly wrong. It should be obvious what I was trying to do yesterday, now that I've explained it.

[Yosarian2]

Oh oh oh, I wish I had thought of this response the other day. I'm gonna do it anyways:

(sigh) What do you expect from me, consistency or something?

No, Mr. Yos.

I expect you to

die

.

You know, if you thought the neighbors were TOWN, I could MAYBE see you running with this "Yos was trying to role-fish the neighbors" argument.

But:

FoS: DemonHyrbid

, in fact. Looks to me like somebody is getting skittish by seeing himself, and potentially all of his partners, on a list.

Hi, DemonHybrid.

1.)

I am not about to include myself in a list of possible scum. Especially when

my

explicitly says "here are the people

I

will be focusing on." And naturally, I would suggest everybody else focus on those same people.

2.)

I play realistically. Do I think Meransiel

could

be scum? Sure. As I explained earlier, I've played in this

exact

situation as a scum tracker before. But do I think it's currently the case? No. Meransiel is probably Town. A scum tracker, unless they had a death wish, probably wouldn't out themselves after they were just alerted to -- ding ding ding-- the presence of a

Serial Killer

who would almost certainly love to take out a tracker.

Similarly, a claimed Vigilante is in the same boat. Even if Iecerint is scum, so what? He claimed Vigilante. Now he

HAS

to play like one or get lynched.

Furthermore, I didn't go so far as to call kondi2424 Town. At best, I said it was "likely." So to say I am not "considering" whether there are fake-claims is just stupid. There are times to be paranoid, and times not to be paranoid.

Day Two is

not

the time to start being paranoid. That comes later in the game if somebody who seems to be Town is suddenly and persistently alive. So for now, yes: I am most assuredly going to focus my efforts on the nine players I just listed out.

3.)

Your "lining up lynches" argument is weak. I seem to recall the same accusations were made against AlmasterGM and MagnaofIllusion. Hey, guess what? They were both Town.

But even if they were scum, it wouldn't matter. Because here's what does matter:

I think every single scum is in that group of nine players. And so it only follows that I want as many people from that group as dead as possible.

Vote: DemonHybrid

. Boom.

And then, in response to Parama getting a wagon:

Hot damn, you're right!

Unvote: DemonHybrid, Vote: Parama

.

So, before you got onto this weird attack on me, your main suspects were apparently 2 of the neighbors. (Parama was also your main suspect at the end of day 1).

And yet, even though they're your main suspects, you're so worried about protecting whatever hypothetical power roles the neighbors might have that you think it's bad to want them to claim, even when a *TRACKER* implies he wants them to claim?

Really having trouble buying this, PJ.

[Yosarian2]

Yep, I think the Neighbors are suspicious. But that does not preclude you from being scum in the slightest. And I'm not calling you scum for rolefishing at

the neighbors

in particular, which is what you seem to be trying to make this argument about.

That's not what you were saying before I called you out on it, PJ. You were talking at LEAST as much about the neighbors as about Meran.


More importantly, Meran was *in the process of claiming tacker*, and fairly obviously so. Did you read his posts?

Guys, I will put a very simple question.

Consider I am not an idiot. Why would I want the neighbors to out their PRs day 1?

Please answer this, it is important.

Meransiel, you're town.

No need to explain yourself further.

I NEED TO EXPLAIN MYSELF FURTHER. NOW ANSWER THE FUCKING QUESTION!

If you read these posts, and think about why he would make them, I'm sure you'll realize he was pretty clearly about to claim info role in his next post.

The idea that I would "rolefish" from someone *who was obviously in the process of claiming* is so completely illogical, it doesn't even make sense. If I wanted to Meran to fullclaim right away, all I would have had to do is *not post*.

Also, since you've brought it up more than once in your defense: the fact that you didn't actually vote Meransiel

does not

cut in your favor. Essentially, all that means you were willing to add reasons for voting Meransiel without actually connecting yourself to his wagon on Day One with a vote -- in other words, making the wagon far more difficult to attribute to you unless somebody actually bothers to read the game as opposed to relying on vote counts (as

far

too many players are prone to do).

I didn't join your Meransiel wagon BECAUSE I DIDN'T THINK HE WAS SCUMMY. I was pretty clear about that subject on day 1, too. I specifically said the rolefishing looked bad, but otherwise, he didn't look scummy, so I didn't want to vote for him, not even to sheep on you.

Yes, the rolefishing was bad, and yes, when Meransiel asked me about that I explained why it was bad. But I didn't think he was otherwise scummy, and i never supported his wagon.

And finally, as you might have noticed, I have a list of

nine

players I am willing to lynch today.

There may be nine players you want to lynch today; personally, I would rather lynch scum today.

How about you try reading the thread and scumhunting?

Hmm. I start asking you questions, and suddenly I'm "not scumhunting", huh? Interesting.

[Yosarian2]

*chin on hands*

Yes, Yosarian2, the fact that you rolefished the Neighbors is a part of my argument. But it is nowhere near the main point. I don't think fishing against them is particularly scummy (although I do think it is antitown). And so what concerned me far more was how you spent so much time arguing against fishing the Neighbors on Day One, and how you were suddenly very willing to fish against them on Day Two.

(shrug) Early day 1, I thought the neighbors were probably all town, and I thought Meran was asking for their roles for no good reason. Your yourself even called that "bad" and "anti-town".

Then at the end of day 1, Parama started acting incredibly scummy and useless and refusing to answer questions, DH started acting weird, and then suddenly Meran is (I thought) iimpying that he was a role that he has information about the neighbors and might catch them in a lie if they claim.

Do you really not see how that completely changes things? Don't you understand how incredibly useful it would have been to get the scummy looking neighbors to claim who they targeted *in a situation where it looked like a tracker had targeted one of them*? You're making one of those terrible "you're being inconsistent, because you said you wanted to go INTO your house when it was raining outside, but said you wanted to LEAVE your house when your house was on fire" arguments that ignores all context.

Also, "scumhunting" against the one person in the game who has bothered to vote you with a serious vote is not footing the bill.

So, what, you voted me for, so now I'm not allowed to wonder about your alignment and ask you questions? That's not exactly how it works, PJ. Especially when you honestly seem to be being deliberately obtuse here when I've already explained myself several times, and when you briefly get on the wagon of my main suspect without really giving a reason for it, and then immedatly find an excuse to jump off of it, you move way up my suspect list. Which sucks, I was really hoping you were going to be town this game.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos

, your D1 words don't match up with your D2 words and actions.

Today, you posited:

at the end of day 1, Parama started acting incredibly scummy

But yesterday (D1), when he was posting, you said:

On a side note, Parama's most recent posts are somewhere between useless and terrible. Post better, give better answers to PJ's questions.

Which sounds more like you think he's shitty town.

Hmm? No, I meant what I said; that his posting was really bad, and that he had to start answering questions. In a normal situation, that post would have ended with either a vote on Para or at least a threat of one, but I was pretty confident at the time that AlmasterGM was scum and didn't want to derail that wagon that close to the end of the day.

Today, you started the day with no vote for some reason. Then, the mastin thing hit and cleared up. You were active on the site Thursday night but didn't register a vote. Only after three people hopped the Parama wagon did you register your displeasure with him, your first real attack upon him, and your first vote of the day. Why the reticence?

Hmm? My third post of the day, I voted Parama. Before that, I had already said that I would support Meran if he wanted the neighbors to claim, and a big part of the reason for that.

You really can't use "you were on this site" as an argument. I'm currently in 4 games, I don't post in (or even read) all 4 of them every single time I log onto the site.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, parama is pretty clearly scum here. The "catch up post" is weak and OMGUSy. Also, attacking PJ because

PJ 337 – Thanks for blatantly bandwagoning. Your reason for voting me, at that point in time, was akin to “I don’t think he adequately answered questions posed to him” even though my answers to everything were more than sufficient. +1.

Is pretty blatently absurd. You never refused to answer questions, huh? Then what was this?

1. dealwithit
2. dealwithit
3. dealwithit

dealwithit

PJ, I don't give a damn about what you want.

Also, +1 awesome points to Mastin for the best musical vote I've seen in a while.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: Do you think PJ is scum?

Eh. I haven't felt confident in my ability to read PJ since Kingmaker II.

At one point, I really didn't like his attack on me, but looking at it now, it could very well have been what he said, an attempt to shake up the game and look elsewhere. Now that I can look at it dispassionately, I have to say that that coming after me like that when I don't have any other votes on me doesn't really look scummy; even though I dislike his reasons for voting me, I can't really attribute a scum motivation for his actions.

So, if I had to guess right now...I'd prrrroooobbbalby say PJ is probably leaning town. Ish. I think. I'm fairly paranoid about him for pretty much irrational reasons, though.

Everyone - thoughts on saporovirus please

SV seems town-ish to me right now. Stuff like where on day 1 she questioned DH about the Kondi thing, and when he answered, she unvoted him based on his answers feels honestly town to me.

[Yosarian2]

I've expressed clear Yosarian2 suspicion.

Actually, no, you haven't, not at any point this game. What are you talking about?

[Yosarian2]

Ninja-post:

Hey Yosarian2, I asked you a rather important question quite a while ago. I would like it answered.

Quick experiment:

Yos, besides me and Parama (who I am assuming you find scummy since that is where your vote is), who do you think is scummy?

Yeah, I've been meaning to do a full re-read and try to get reads on more people, just haven't had time. Let me get that going.

My notes after a re-read:


1. DemonHybrid: This early post of DemonHydra bugs the heck out of me:

Unvote, Vote: Meransiel

Not only has he been scummy, but if he flips scum, the 3 of us neighbors can rest easy knowing that we're near-confirmed town.

2. Pine* earworm* Ythan : Some of Earworm’s posts probably make more sense coming from town then from scum. This post, especially, tastes like town:

unvote, vote: Parama

asking people a bunch of questions is not the same as scum-hunting.

@Meransiel

: Can you please clarify your current stances on Parama and DH?

@Parama

: What do you think of Meransiel?

*Looks at your last vote.*
*Looks for Sensfan posts between this post and your last vote.*
*Looks for Parama posts between this post and your last vote.*
*sigh*

But, godammit you are town aren't you? :/
Could you at least

attempt

to explain your votes, if only for my sanity?

3. mastin2 Snow White** Confirmed town Sadly, I don’t think the day 2 Mastin wagon tells us anything, because of that bad lying about his role gambit Mastin attempted; after that, I’d expect ‘logical scumhunter’ people like PJ to vote Mastin no matter what his alignment was.

4. Iecerint: Votes Hreze, says he dislikes the current wagons, says he doesn’t think Meran is scum. Defends Meran later. Moves his vote over to DH in 319, has townreads on sapo, PBuG. Icerint has generally been quiet, but I get pretty good vibes from him.

5. saporovirus: Not really a fan of her day 1 play. I like that she defended me against PJ on day 2, heh. (Ok, it's hard for me to be unbiased about this, but that defensive posts feels town-ish to me).

6. Parama* : Dislike his MoI vote in post 262. Refuses to answer questions. Is using the “I haven’t read the game” defense for way too long. His “summery” post was pretty terrible. Scummy.

8. CrashTextDummie Hrezs* Dislike Hreze’s post #80, where Meransiel complains that the hydra discussion is useless and Hreze votes him for “squelching discussion”. Lame. Generally lurked for most of the day.

10. Meransiel Tracker, probably town. Looks generally town for most of day 1 (especally now that that demand for the neighbors to claim makes more sense)

11. MrBuddyLee** No real problems with his play. The “ask everyone questions and don’t specify anything for a long time” thing is pretty much his normal normal meta these days, and his day 2 posting feels like decent scumhunting to me. Of course, MBL is pretty much always unreadable, so take that with a grain of salt.

12. petroleumjelly PJ’s stance on AGM is kind of weird yesterday. First, he attacks Meran with the “you’re trying to plant the idea that one of the neighbors is scum” argument, but calls AGM town while he’s doing the same thing. He never explains his AGM read, and eventually “reatracts” his town read on AGM, but never really comments on him otherwise. PJ, can you remember what post or posts by AGM gave you a town vibe early in the day, and why you changed your mind later?

After Meran makes a bunch of posts that are pretty obvtown IMHO (refusal to get on the Kondi wagon without a full explination first, comment that Kondi townslipped, which he stuck to even under attack, calls me a “misguided townie” in response to me attacking him), PJ says this:

1.)

Meransiel, if you're going to claim scum, please just do it now and save us some time. There's no shame in it -- not every game is gonna be your game. And this one certainly isn't shaping up to be yours.

Ehhh. Really don’t get it.

14. Shanba*: No real problem with his play. Defense of Hydra looks town-ish.


16. Hydra (Thor655 + Magister Ludi)*: No real read on them yet. Most of the scumhunting they’ve done seems plausible enough.

18. ToastyToast kondi2424** Probably town, based on the neighbors town slip thing

Summary:

Town: Mastin2, Meransiel

Probably town: Toastytoast

Leaning town: Pine, Iecerint, Shanba

Null: Hydra, MBL, saporovirus

Leaning scummy: CrashTextDummies, DemonHybrid (note: DH is probably town if para is scum, although mastin’s theory is cute), petroleumjelly

Scum: Parama

[Yosarian2]

Are all things which make me lean scum on Yosarian2. Emphasis are key words which I particularly focused on, but not necessarily the only thing which makes those sentences scummy.

...so, when i analyze people, and either read them as town or scum, when I either get good or bad vibes from them, when a certain posts strikes me as off...that makes you lean scum on me?

What, you don't like it when I scumhunt or something? I don't understand.

[Yosarian2]

I agree with you on Yos. I think his attitude toward me is particularly bizarre; it gives the impression that he's missed some pretty salient events this game, even though his wallposts give the impression that he's heavily involved.

What are you saying I missed?

[Yosarian2]

EBWOP: Duh, you're the vig. Sorry, didn't realize I left that out of my notes post.

[Yosarian2]

Quick check-in.

Yosarian2, my Townread on AlmasterGM was pretty much prompted by his posts. Go and isolate his posts: it looked to me like he was one of the only players who was actually trying to scumhunt in earnest. He may not have made the post points, but he was catching little nuances and was clearly reading posts over very carefully. He was actually pretty much the only player I was comfortable calling Town (except for

maybe

kondi2424), but when he suddenly went off the deep end and attacked Snow White, it started to look like he was getting fidgety under pressure and so I lost my confidence in my initial townread of him. Furthermore, AlmasterGM was not trying to "subtly" suggest that one of the Neighbors was scum; his posts were quite direct about it, unlike Meransiel's Post 90 that I've continually referenced.

</3 to CrashTextDummie for not getting an immediate Townread on me.

If I missed anything, let me know.

Ok, that makes some sense. I really shouldn't hold you getting a correct town read against you, but IGMEOY.

How about the post I where quoted you acting like Meran was being incredibly obvious scum, in a situation where that didn't really fit at all? Can you explain that?

[Yosarian2]

About Shanba?

Shanba does need to post more, but a number of his posts look pro-town to me.

Quick summery of shanba's posting:

ISO Post 0: opposes the hydra wagon. Apparent pro-town motives for this. Votes Sensfan as part of this, but drops the vote soon after.

Post 1: Opposes the "let's outguess the mod and assume one of the neighbors is scum" theory. Vote meransiel for a combination of this and rolefishing. At this point in the game, this post makes a lot of sense to me as coming from a town perspective; I was thinking pretty much the same thing.

Post 2: Continues the same train of thought

Post 7, I like a lot, since Shanba basically calls himself out for lurking, and asks why he's not being attacked:

Your list of lurkers bemuses me. What metric are you using to judge a lurker?

The title is lurkers / underperformers. My metric is my personal judgement of those who aren't contributing to the game in a meaningful way.

Do you have a problem with that?

No, not necessarily, but this is mafia, and inconsistencies bother me. Why are MBL and hrezs in particular on the list when me and PBuG are not?

Shanba later basically defends PJ against me, and questions me about my PJ read, which is fair, and not what I would expect Shanba to do hereif he was scum. He's also still defending the neighbors as likely both town, which is interesting.

For the most part, Shanba needs to post more, but his play in general seems pretty townieish to me. I will say that if parama flips scum, I'll probably have to take a second look at Shanba for defending him, but...meh, even in that case, I'm not really seeing Shanba as scum here.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, I know its rather minor, but why do you have Meransiel listed as tracker :

Meransiel Tracker

, but iecerint listed as nothing:

Iecerint:

I already mentioned this, but yeah, I forgot to jot down Iecerint's roleclaim in that post. I wasn't thinking about it when I was re-reading day 1, and I forgot to add it later. (shrug) Dosn't really matter, I thought he was town anyway.

14. Shanba*: No real problem with his play.

I know you're a big fan of hunting lurkers, why is it that you don't seem to have a problem with the minamilist style of posting Shanba is taking here, and why does this actually make him seem town to you? I'm not feeling the warm cozy glow.

Eh. I normally do like hunting lurkers, but I think Shanba is likely to be town here. I just explained my town read on him a few posts ago.

On a side note, it's kind of bizzare for people to attack me for using "weasel words" or whatever you want to call it in my summery. I went through and gave my opinion on ever player in the game. Of COURSE I'm going to be wishy washy or only have weak reads on a lot of them; if someone has a strong read on every player in the game on day 2, they're probably scum.

[Yosarian2]

The difference is, is that you are jumping to conclusions for no apparent reason, which is scummy since there's a possible scum motive for doing so and no obvious reason a townie would jump to that conclusion, while I am simply not coming to any conclusion on the subject without information.

His whole argument against AGM went roughly like this:
1. "I think it's likely the whole neighborhood is town since none of them seem suspicious to me."
2. "Scum are therefore likely to suggest there is one scum in the neighborhood."
3. "AGM is therefore scum."

It's

all

based on Yos2 jumping to conclusions. His attack feels very disingenuous.

No, it's not.

A: I think that the stance AGM was taking was scummy, in and of itself. I explained this in great detail.

B: Even if I'm wrong about A, or if if AGM actually believed what he was saying, then if he believed that the right thing to do is to lynch a neighbor, he should have actually acted on it. I still don't get why he was so gung-ho to lynch a neighbor in theory, but never even seemed to seriously consider voting any of the neighbors for any reason in reality.

There isn't any "jumping to conclusions" in my argument at all, CTD. Yes, i was wrong about AGM, and that sucks. Pro-town people are wrong about 50%-70% of the time on day 1, learn to deal with the fact.

[Yosarian2]

Still have slacked off on the re-read, but if I were to go off of late-game interactions,

Eh. I normally do like hunting lurkers, but I think Shanba is likely to be town here.

^This strengthens the scumteam I proposed.

The fact that I think Shanba is town proves we're scum together? Is that seriously what you're going with here?

You know, you don't have to try to prove the theory that being confirmed town makes your play worse, mastin.

[Yosarian2]

...Yeah...

I'm not sold on Shanba, yet. (Heavily, HEAVILY leaning towards it, of course.)

But Yos?

Sealing the deal with every post he makes.

Do you have an actual case, or are you just going to use your confirmed town status to lead the entire town in totally the wrong direction by just announcing over and over again that certain people are scum when you're pretty clearly wrong about everything?

The only reason you EVER gave for suspecting me was the argument with PJ, and even PJ dropped that case ages ago, because he was logically shown to be wrong.

Just because you're confirmed town and aren't going to get lynched, mastin, doesn't mean you should play like crap.

[Yosarian2]

Do you have an actual case, or are you just going to use your confirmed town status to lead the entire town in totally the wrong direction by just announcing over and over again that certain people are scum when you're pretty clearly wrong about everything?

Can you please be more specific about the "everything" mastin's wrong about?

Not that list, but this thing he's been pushing for his last several posts, with no logic and absolutely no reason behind it, is pretty terrible:

Parama-Sapo-Yos2-Shanba just seems so...right.

As a scumteam.

Out of those 4, the only one who seems likely to be scum is Parama. I'm town, shanba's probably town, and sapo is likely to be town. None of the connections make any sense either; the closest thing he's come to a reason is the "Yos is calling shanba town so they're probably scum together" argument, which is just a bad argument on every possible level. And none of his links really make sense at all. And yet people are taking his non-case seriously because he's a confirmed townie. I really shouldn't lose my temper here, it doesn't help anything in this case, but it's just frustrating.

[Yosarian2]

A. Really thinking PJ is town here. I don't think he attacks me like this, this way, if he's scum. I was expecting him to continue to disengage from me if he was scum. He's wrong, of course, but he's probably town.

B. I've done my best to get a read on everyone in the game, and I shared it. I did an entire re-read to clarify my thoughts. Sorry if that's not good enough, PJ, but that's all I've got, and all I'm likely to have today unless something more informative happens. I don't know what else to say. If you have questions about specific people, please ask them (although then you'll probably just call me "reactive" again or whatever.) And just to make this even crappier, I'm going to be going on V/LA next week, so, yeah. Fun times.

C. If we all agree that Parama is probably scum, then why can't we just bloody lynch him (well, his replacement, Bowser)? Even the people attacking me all seem to thing Parama is scum. I haven't heard anyone defend him as town, with the possible exception of Shanba, and yet it's been amazingly hard to get a wagon going on him. This strongly implies that the scum don't want him lynched. Can't we just lynch the semi-lurking obvscum today?

We haven't heard much from Bowser yet, but the two posts he's made so far with any kind of content look bad:

Oh crap. replacing a scummy as hell slot.

I'm going to take some time aside and do this.

Followed by:

Look at my wagon. It's probably scum-driven.

If Bowser's slot was "scummy as hell", then why is the wagon against him "probably scum driven"? If Parama looked scummy, which Bowser apparently admits, then why wouldn't town wagon him?

[Yosarian2]

Ah, and one more content post while I was writing that, calling me scum with no reasoning. Of course.

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian: Why rush? If a replacement has a chance of chaning town's mind, let them.

Because he's scum. Why do you want to give the scum a chance to change the town's mind?

Plus, you know, 3 days until deadline.

You are sounding more and more desperate as this day goes on. Your over-defensiveness towards mastin is noted, as is your "don't lynch me!" attitude towards PJ.

vdsvcdvfsDVSjv24g jvidsfjoviFJSVDnfs vnnt2o4itfjdsjDVGASo;jidsiI#EW#(*(O:IIIIDIFVJDEIFJDKIVVDVMKDMMKKMKKMNKMKMMMMMMNOLEFDFDF DFASF ADFCV AEF @QR DFADFVQEF SAEDF QFEADFEFAESW DFA DGFAS DFASDFAS DGFAE GFASD FAEWDGAEDGZADVGZADGFAEST#QE T#QDGFADGAEDGAEGRET#QT#QDTGAEDGADFAEDFADFASTGQEWdgnfscdgzn

That being said, you do realize that I am at one vote right now, and it's 3 days until deadline, right? If I was scum, I wouldn't be at all worried by the attacks against me right now.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, don't worry, that was just the sound of me slamming my face into the keyboard repeatedly.

[Yosarian2]

That being said, you do realize that I am at one vote right now, and it's 3 days until deadline, right? If I was scum, I wouldn't be at all worried by the attacks against me right now.

1)My read on Parama is null, not scum[
2)With multiple people announcing that they find you suspicious? Yeah, you would be worried as scum.

Why would I be worried as scum? I've only got two people who've at all expressed suspicion of me, and only one vote.

As town, I'm worried because both of those people who are attacking me seems to be town, and influential town (one who seems completely illogically attacking me for no good reason, and who won't give a case no matter what I do; and the other is PJ, so he's automatically influential just based on his posting ability), which means at some point in the future the scum could add their support to that and make it a real wagon. Besides that, this is potentially a big distraction for the town in the long run, especially with a player like PJ mistakenly suspecting me; it's going to make it a lot harder for me to scumhunt, and is likely to generally make the rest of this game suck. But if I was scum, i wouldn't be at all worried about two people; either I'd kill them, or I'd ignore them. I wouldn't have to worry at all if I was scum; this is only a potential problem because I'm town and I think they're both town.

Having 3 days only limits my options, which means I'm going to have to unvote hrezs/CTD. Of the people who have a chance of getting lynched, you do look like a possibility.

What makes Parama scummier than DH, in your opinion?

I don't really see why DH is scummy, for the most part. He's made some weird posts, but he hasn't been nearly as anti-town as Parama.

[Yosarian2]

Mostly because he was saying these things without followup. He was passively reacting to PJ's case, defending the accusations against him, then adding some little bits and pieces that amount to a "Pj this attack is scummy!" That stunk of misdirection. If yos honestly thought this was scummy, why wasn't he going on the offensive? I called him on it, and he posted without responding. Then when I pressed the issue again, he backed off. That sits really awkwardly with me - particularly as the backing off occurred after pj stopped going after him.

That's not really accurate. First I responded to PJ's attacks, and he basically stopped attacking me. Then, after he basically stopped attacking me, I thought about it (especially about how his weird "yos is fishing the neighbors" thing seemed to conflict with his "the neighbors are scum" thing), and I went on the offensive against PJ, because I realized that what he was saying didn't seem to fit with the rest of his beliefs (starting with that post you just quoted). I attacked him and asked questions for a while after that point. I've spent most of the rest of the day trying to get a read on PJ, and have gone back and forth on it a few times and we've seen new evidence. When you asked me, I had changed my mind and thought he was likely town, but then I came back around to thinking he was likely scum after I re-read the whole game and found some problems with his play. And then I actually changed my mind again, BECAUSE of the way PJ started attacking me again I changed my mind again and decided he was probably town after all, because I just don't think he would do that as scum (which is pretty much the opposite of what you're saying). Truth is, PJ's just damn hard to read.

[Yosarian2]

Why when I skimmed this did I get the distinct impression it was bussing Sapo and Yos2?

Probably because you have a ridiculous conspiracy theory that has no basis for it and no logic behind it at all, and it's coloring all of your perceptions of the game.

[Yosarian2]

MBL: Nothing specifically changed my my mind about DH. I guess I'm mostly assuming at this point that parama is scum and that therefore DH is probably town. As for DH himself; eh, he's borderline.

I realize that I've been kind of all over the place to day in my suspicions. When I'm as wrong as I was day 1 of this game, I'm often doubting myself and going back and fourth on everything the next day. I don't really have a lot of confidence in most of my own reads at this point. I'm mostly just hoping that we lynch a scum today, and that once we get one scum caught, that everything starts to make more sense.

As for CTD and Hrez; Hrez was on my borderline scummy list, mostly through process of elimination. CTD's case on me is pretty null; IMHO, he could be making this case as either alignment.

[Yosarian2]

I mentioned this earlier, but I am going to be V/LA next week, from tomorrow though the 31st.

[Yosarian2]

Quick post from a borrowed computer while on V/LA:
Still happy with a bowser lynch. Don't see any reason to think he's town at this point.

I'm considering sheeping PJ onto Meren; only problem is that, other then the role fishing thing (with I really want an explanation from Meren about), I don't think the rest of Meren's posting is bad.

1: fencesitting, 2: HE JUST POINTED OUT HOW SCUMMY MERAN'S ROLEFISHING WOULD BE, AND HE DOESN'T THINK IT'S VOTEWORTHY?!?

I didn't think Meran looked like scum, so I didn't want to vote him, despite the rolefishing stuff. I don't know why that's so hard to understand.

Also, all this attacking about using "fence sitting words" or whatever is fairly silly. If I have a weak town read on someone that I'm not that confident about, I'm not going to pretend to be 100% sure when I'm not. Doing that is just bad for the town. Do you expect me to play like Fate or something?

[Yosarian2]

Back from V/LA. catching up now.

[Yosarian2]

First of all, lol at all the people accusing me of "bussing" because I was right yesterday. So typical; I'm wrong day 1 and right day 2, and people are attacking me for both, heh. Personally, I'm just glad I'm batting .500 this game, but hey, whatever.

Anyway, now that we have a caught scum, we have some real meat to analyze. Looking back on day 2 with the knowledge Para is scum, my biggest suspect right now is CTD.

CTD opposed the wagon all day, while pushing wagons like DH (who could theoretically be SK, but is certainly not on the scum team with his neighbor Para at this point).

CTD:

ISO Post 3, he attacked Meransiel (town), DH (not scum), and me (town)..

Post 4 he attacks the same people in more detail (Meran, me, and DH), and defends Hydra and Para.

Post 5, he keeps pushing the same bad suspects, saying:

I'll eat my hat if not at least one of {Meransiel, Yosarian2, DemonHybrid} is scum.

Which, considering he's talking about 3 people who are not scum, is a pretty damn scummy thing to push.

Post 6:

tldr: scumlist as of end of D1:

scum:
Meransiel
Yos2
DemonHybrid

leaning scum:
PJ

grey glob of goo:
Mastin2
Icerint
saporovirus
Shanba
kondi2424

leaning town:
earworm
Parama

town:
Hydra
MBL

Same list, same bad reasons.

By post 6 and 7, he could no longer push the Meran lynch for obvious reasons, moved Shanba and Earworm down to his suspect list, but kept voting for DH, while saying neutral-ish things about Para in his post #6 and then putting him in his "leaning town" list in post 7, which I think by this point was a pretty unjustified position to take.

tldr:

scum:
DemonHybrid

leaning scum:
killerjester
Shanba
Yos

neutral:
Pine
ToastyToast

leaning town:
Bowser
PJ
Hydra
MBL

confirmed town:
Mastin
Meransiel
Icerint

I think CTD is the most likely suspect for Para's buddy at this point, based on day 2 interactions.

Vote:CrashTextDummies

New comments on other people, based on analysis with knowledge of more alignments:

Shanba: Pretty much defended Para-scum for much of the game.

I don't think Parama is scum. I don't agree with his attack on MoI, but I'm unconvinced it's scummy.

Unvote Vote: SensFan

Parama made the whole "KONDI TOWNSLIPPED" post which to me a pretty big towntell in and of itself. His attack on MoI was meeeeh, but whatever. I would like if he would pursue leads instead of "just throwing that out there" but again whatever.

TBH, mbl, Parama's behaviour today doesn't strike me as particularly indicative of his alignment at all. Yesterday he was reasonably active and did some amount of scumhunting (if mediocre scumhunting). Today? Well, he fell behind, and then spent the whole time defending himself. I mean, I have to reread to be sure, but I'm pretty sure the accusations came before the scumhunting stopped, and it's not uncommon at all for a player under a lot of pressure who's also behind to drop dramatically in scumhunting. It's like, you only have so much time and effort you can spend on a game.

I dont want to argue this too hard, because I'm not really that sure he's town, but I don't think the case against him is very strong.

Parama really looks like he just lost interest in the game. I dont think that's scummy or townie either way. The whole "I'm catching up" thing may be classic active lurking, but it's not what scum do when already under pressure, as Parama was. When you think you're getting lynched, like in parama's situation, you try and defuse it by giving them words - even if the words are not considered or consistent or whatever. Promises to catch up dont placate mobs.

Would Shanba do all that for a fairly doomed scumbuddy? I don't know. There are still some posts of Shanba that give me a good gut feeling, but defending scum to that extent is is to big a thing to ignore, and Shanba has just moved way down my list.

fos:shanba

Hydra: Their hardcore attacks of Meran look pretty bad, especally the BS "he claimed scum" post typed in ALL CAPS. They did vote Para for much of day 2, but I'm a little skittish about giving them much town cred for that, because of a few factors:

For a while, Hydra didn't have any real reasons for voting for Para. I'm not really clear why he was doing it. This was the only mention of Para in the post where they vote him:

Parama needs rope or replace out for failing at game.

In a very long post (ISO 53), he talks about everything else in the game, just barely mentions Para at all, and then ends up voting Para.

Later, he makes this post:

heh, a few previews I missed. I am happy with lynching parama, and on a scum flip, going straight after saporo.

This post strikes me the wrong way. He still hasn't really explained why he wants to lynch para, other then lurking, but is already lining up lynches for what to do after he flips scum?

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, why are you voting someone with no wagon when you have an FoS on Shanba, the biggest wagon? Is there a large difference in your confidence b/w the two reads?

Yes, I certanly do. I have a strong scum read on CTD. I have mixed feelings on Shanba; I don't know if he would really defend a buddy that strongly as scum or not, and I had a town gut read from some of his posts. I don't really like his voting history, and I don't really like his lack of content, but I'm not confident on him.

I really can't see CTD being town at all at this point, and I'm troubled that he's gotten no pressure at all for his treatment of Para vs. DH yesterday, as well as the other scumtells like the "One of DH, Meran, and Yos must be scum" line.

[Yosarian2]

Posting from vacation.

@Xanatos

, can you please explain why you find the KJ-saporo slot townish?

@Yos

, welcome back. Hope you enjoyed your vacation.

Yos's opinion of her is floaty:

SV seems town-ish to me right now. Stuff like where on day 1 she questioned DH about the Kondi thing, and when he answered, she unvoted him based on his answers feels honestly town to me.

saporovirus: Not really a fan of her day 1 play. I like that she defended me against PJ on day 2, heh. (Ok, it's hard for me to be unbiased about this, but that defensive posts feels town-ish to me).

Null: Hydra, MBL, saporovirus

@Yos

: What's the latest scoop on saporo?

Eh. Her content was thin, so it's hard to say anything for sure, but I don't think it's all that likely that she was scum with Para. This looks like an honest attack to me:

unvote

vote: parama

Reasoning?

1. I am still not liking how you both jumped on the Hydra wagon after kondi "townslipped," but your play towards the end of D1 struck me as somewhat less scummy. I have to go back and re-read it to figure out why I thought so.

2. Parama's general "fuck off with your questions" attitude has been a bit strange. He could just be pissed off with the game but it's been going on for a while.

3. One of you 3 is scum and it's not kondi and it's probably not you.

She did get off the para wagon for a while at one point after this, but, meh. This doesn't really look like distancing to me.

[Yosarian2]

2. One flipped town in a list of 3 suspects does not make that scum list "pretty damn scummy"

You said "one of the three people is scum". None of them are, and that makes you look pretty scummy.

You know full well it's more then "one flipped town". DH really can't be in the same scumgroup as Para, which means that he's either town or effectively so. Scum yesterday defiantly would have been pushing for DH over Para. And yes, I am using the fact that I know my own alignment in my analysis; people who pretend they don't know their own alignment when analyzing the game are idiot.

b) You are painting my read in a scummy light ("could no longer push"), completely disregarding the fact that it makes perfect sense for me from a pro-town standpoint to abandon my Meransiel suspicion upon learning that he was a tracker

Sure. It's part of a general pattern of bad suspicions on your part, though.

Looking at day 2, you simply look more like a Para buddy then anyone else in the game does.

[he said] neutral-ish things about Para in his post #6 and then [put] him in his "leaning town" list in post 7, which I think by this point was a pretty unjustified position to take.

His placement as "leaning town" was in large parts based on a strong town-vibe I got from him in the early goings, and the fact that he was a neighbor to my top suspect. I communicated this very clearly.

What it looks like to me is you were using wishy-washing words in your post, to try to not link yourself so obviously to Para, but then in your list you left him as town, because you wanted to push people in that direction.

I really can't see CTD being town at all at this point, (...)

Based on

that

case? To say that you're overstating would be putting it mildly.

You look like Para's buddy. You've consistently pushed bad wagons all game, defended scum, and made bad votes all game, and it looks like you've done it in a tactical way to me.

[Yosarian2]

You know full well it's more then "one flipped town". DH really can't be in the same scumgroup as Para, which means that he's either town or effectively so.

You're reaching awfully far in your attempt to make this poor argument work. If DH is the SK, he is most certainly

not

"effectively town". And while it's very unlikely that he's scum with Parama, it's not entirely out of the question.

I'm talking about from the point of view of Para's scumbuddy. From the point of view of Para's scumbuddy, DH is effectively town. He could be town, or he theoretically could be SK, but Para's scumbuddy just knows that he's not in his group. If you actually were town and wanted to find scum, what you'd want to be doing is looking at people who wanted to lynch DH over Para yesterday.

If you're seriously pushing the idea that 2/3rds of the neighbors are scum, and that they cleared the third neighbor as town...heh, go for it, I'd like to hear this theory.

Looking at day 2, you simply look more like a Para buddy then anyone else in the game does.

Unsubstantiated libel. You haven't even commented on the majority of players today.

What does that have to do with anything?

Why would I need to "comment on the majority of players" or whatever? All I need to do is find 1 scum a day and lynch him.

That's a rather silly sentence, by the way. It's not "unsubstantiated" at all, I've explained why in fairly great detail. And accusing someone of "libel" because they think you're scum in a mafia game is actually kind of funny.

You look like Para's buddy. You've consistently pushed bad wagons all game, defended scum, and made bad votes all game, and it looks like you've done it in a tactical way to me.

Arugment from Repetition. Your case against me is part unsubstantiated crap, part misrepresentation of facts, and it doesn't get better just because you repeat yourself. You have not explained why you think I look like a buddy to Parama beyond the fact that he was on my townlist, you certainly have not explained why that makes me a more likely buddy than some other people (Shanba, KJ) and you have not presented a shred of evidence that I was acting "in a tactical way".

"Argument from repetition"? You said that I was "overstating" my argument. I was not. You look like Para's buddy because you tried to prevent Para from being lynched yesterday, and attacked people we now know to be town instead of him. You can dodge and weave as much as you want, you can claim it's "unsubstantiated" or "misrepresentation", but it's simply not. You defended scum, you tried to prevent scum from being lynched while trying to lynch people who were town. That makes it look like you are on team scum.

Just to be clear, my "bad votes" extend to my current one as well, right?

Actually, no. My analysis is based almost entirely on the alignments of people we know. We don't know Sapo/KJ's alignment yet, I wouldn't base a case on someone on an assumption of their guilt or innocence at this point. Also, the best information generally comes from days when we lynch scum, because that's the point when scum play diverges the most from town play, so I'm primarily looking at people's day 2 behaviors here.

I just skimmed your ISO for mentions of Saporovirus/Killerjester:

...

And you accuse

me

of being wishy-washy.

If KJ does flip scum, feel free to accuse me of defending them in a wishy-washy way or whatever. I don't really think that slot is scum, but hey.

Personally, I don't think it's at all "wishy-washy" for me to suspect that slot less today then yesterday because of the way they helped start a wagon on scum, I think that's just rational scumhunting.

In any case, the reason the "wishy washy words" were a scumtell in your specific case is that you spent the entire day trying to defend a scum; in the middle you put some wishy washy words in there so you could later claim you were having second thoughts, but even while doing that you never actually stopped defending the scum. Having doubt isn't, itself, a scumtell. Defending a scum is.

[Yosarian2]

CTD is SO SCUM. Why aren't there more votes on him? Now he wants to lynch the doctor.

[Yosarian2]

Shoot yosarian.

Oh, please. With Para scum and you town, with Mastin town, Meran town, and KJ the doctor, it should be fairly obvious that I'm town here.

[Yosarian2]

Well, we've still got 6 days until deadline. I wouldn't want to end the day yet, not when I'd much rather see pressure on CTD.

If it gets close to deadline and I have to choose between a no-lynch and a Shanba lynch, I'd hammer Shanba.

[Yosarian2]

Huh. Well, there's zero reason for a scum CTD to counterclaim here, with only one vote on him so

unvote

Vote:Killerjester

[Yosarian2]

Somebody want to explain why I'm being voted here? Last I checked, the only argument against me was some bullshit theory of Mastin's that I was Shanba's scum partner just because I thought Shanba was town.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, Xantos just claimed a guilty on MBL.

MBL's argument that Xantos can't be scum if I'm town actually kind of makes me want to vote MBL. I need to read the Xantos slot carefully, though, see if the claim fits with the behavior. The whole thing seems rather odd at first glance; why would he be roleblocked last night by a scum roleblocker?

[Yosarian2]

Ok, let's see:

It would have been at the end of day 1 that the investigation happened, right? I believe that would have been Earworm in the slot at the time. Earworm did look town to me, but it's worth mentioning that he never mentioned MBL during the day. This isn't conclusive, he may have decided to investigate someone he didn't have a read on, but it's interesting.

I believe Pine not submitting a choice night 2. He only posted 3 times on day 2 before he replaced out.

Here's the part that really bugs me. David Xantos deciding to not claim on day 3 might be plausible, but David, you never even voted MBL on day 3. Why is that? If you found a gun on him, why wouldn't you at least want to pressure him and possibly see if you can get him to claim and/or lynch him without having to claim yourself? Not claiming, I can see, but not doing anything at all with a guilty while voting for Shanba and such, I'm having a harder time getting my mind around. David, can you explain?

[Yosarian2]

If I had to pick a suspect role, I'd have said CTD in honesty, but the counter-claim isn't something I'd expect from Scum.

CTD is pretty much confirmed town at this point. There is no way a scum could possibly have known that killerjester was lying. Well, I guess if they had a rolecop.

[Yosarian2]

Because I considered Shanba quite dodgy.. and I didn't want to give him/her an "out" by way of "OMG GUILTY READ". I've made that mistake once before. My plan was, in a nutshell, to see how the Shanba thing went, and if it lost steam, start poking around MBL to see if he would claim, or if a wagon could be started on him without revealing myself.. when CTD counterclaimed though, the KJ lynch just went hyper, which turned out to be a good thing, but it did leave me not wanting to claim for the same reason as before, with Shanba.. I had hoped to get a second read, but the RB made that impossible.

That's...weird. Some people had a scum read on Shanba. You'd rather go with that then go with an INVESTIGATION? I mean, you had a *GUILTY* on someone, wouldn't you rather lynch or at least pressure that person then try to go after someone else?

[Yosarian2]

And Yos, people claim at L-1 or L-2. That's what I was waiting for.

You were waiting for Shanba to claim? Why wouldn't you have wanted MBL to claim instead? We could always go back and attack other suspects the next day.

It's especially odd since Icerent had already claimed vig, so you knew MBL couldn't be the vig. So what was holding you back?

[Yosarian2]

Because I've been a Flavour Cop before, and my first guilty back then turned out to be Town Butcher. VT, but with a flavour-miller element.. my role detected knives.

That kind of thing is pretty rare in normal games. Usually, vigs, cops, and mafia have guns.

And as I said, if the Shanba thing had died down, or he claimed, I was going to try and start a wagon on him. In hindsight I should have done what I started today, claimed full-Cop and got a claim, then if it was anything other than something like "Townie with a Gun", lynch.

And at that point, Ice wasn't 100% in my eyes, as I said, I had suspicions of Assassin. :/

Again; this is a normal game.

Anyway, I'm actually starting to believe David here. I don't really see this making much sense as a gambit; as MBL pointed out, if scum really needed one more mislynch to win here (only way that's possible right now is if they have 3 scum and a roleblocker to block the vig), then they wouldn't fake a guilty on MBL, they'd fake a guilty on me. We've already got the confirmed innocent DH *ignoring a claimed guilty* to vote for me for absolutely no reason, I'd clearly have been an easier mislynch then MBL here. And earworm *really* gave me pro-town vibes on day 2. Honestly, if the scum team was going to do a gambit, they'd probably come up with one that made more sense then this.

Vote:MrBuddyLee

[Yosarian2]

I still don't understand why lynching you would apparently prove or disprove that I was roleblocked..

It wouldn't; DH is talking nonsense, as far as I can tell. He's confirmed town, though, so no point in questioning him, really.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) It's possible that there are 3 scum left. If there are, though, then if MBL flips town, Icerent could still shoot you tonight and the game would keep going. Only way this could make any sense as a scum gambit is if there are 3 scum left and 1 of them is a roleblocker.

Just looking at the player list, though, I don't see how there could be 3 scum left. Icerent is confirmed vig (especially now that the SK is dead), DH and Toastytoast are basically confirmed town, CTD is almost certainly town, and either MBL is scum or Xantos is scum but not both. There's really not room for a 3 man scum group.

[Yosarian2]

Unless your scum *gasp*

Well, sure. Of course I'm using my knowledge of my own town alignment in my own analysis.

I don't really get why anyone would suspect me of being scum at this point, though. So far this game, I've been attacked for tunneling on Parama while not wanting to vote for DH or wanting to really entertain any other suspects on day 2, I've been attacked for saying that I thought Shanba looked town, and I was attacked for saying that because of Sapo's attack on Parma, they were probably not scum together. I turned out to be right on all 3 counts, and I don't even know why anyone is attacking me at this point.

That being said, sure, I'm one of the unconfirmeds. Assuming MBL flips scum, the only unconfirmed left are me and hydra, and town has plenty of chances to lynch and/or vig both of us. (Alternately, albeit less likely, if MBL flips town and Xantos is vigged and flips scum, town still has time). If we're both dead and the game still isn't over, it means one of the "confirmeds" is actually a trick, but that seems fairly unlikely.

[Yosarian2]

Well, considering I'd already figured out that Hydra had to be MBL's scum buddy, that vote's not surprising.

It's very simple. Xantos claimed a guilty on MBL. So we lynch MBL, and in the fairly unlikely event he flips town, we vig Xantos. Then tomorrow, we lynch Hydra and win.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah; we have a claimed guilty here. Either you believe Xantos, in which case we MBL is scum, or you don't, in which case we lynch Xantos is scum. Lynching a random townie doesn't do anything to solve the "Xantos or MBL" issue, and town'll still be in the same situation tomorrow.

[Yosarian2]

2) Xanatos claims that earworm and Pine were aware of a guilty on me D2 but said nothing and breadcrumbed nothing.

Earworm never posted on day 2. Pine posted on day 2, but all he did was make 3 "I'm going to read the game soon" posts; he never actually read the thread at all. If he was a gunsmith who found a gun on someone, would you expect him to claim before reading the thread, or would you expect him to try to figure out if the person he investigated might be a town power role first?

You're right, Xantos's behavior yesterday was really odd for a gunsmith with a "gun" result, as I questioned him on extensively. I'm having trouble seeing this as a scum gambit at all, though; it doesn't really make any sense as one.

[Yosarian2]

I figured the same thing out, but then I reasoned that the only logical remaining scum choice was you. If you were town as well, I'm sure you would have reasoned this out and placed a vote on me. If you were town, I would have to be the only logical 100% chance of being scum here, yet you not only didn't initially vote me, you continue to not vote me after acknowledging this.

Yes, yes, I know that you're also scum, but even if we lynch you and you flip scum, it doesn't actually solve the problem, we're still in the same situation tomorrow. Ideally, we want to deal with the Xantos/MBL problem now, while we still have a living vig.

I mean, we could lynch you today, if that's what you want. I'd rather lynch the guy we have a cop guilty on, but hey. Either scum works.

It sounds to me, though, that you just want to mislynch me today so then tomorrow you and your buddy MBL can mislynch Xantos and win.

[Yosarian2]

Another odd thing is that if Xantos is lying, that means that town had no information roles at all this game (other then an innocent child) which would be weird.

I don't know. If he was lying, I don't get why he didn't just claim cop; the whole "claim cop to get MBL to claim with the intent of saying you're a gunsmith after he claims" doesn't really make any sense to me if he's lying scum.

[Yosarian2]

The more sensible town Gunsmith play is to either:

a) Fakeclaim Cop for gravitas since you know your result is basically Cop-tier cuz the SK is dead and the vig is out (if very ballsy)
b) Claim Gunsmith and make the argument about verbally

Switching around is unnecessary and speaks to wanting to modulate how his claimed role fits his predecessors' play.

Well, not really. If you're a gunsmith, and you find a gun on someone, you ideally want them to claim before you do, otherwise they'll just claim some role with a gun after you claim. If you can get them to claim vanilla first, and THEN you claim you saw a gun on them, you get more information because you've now caught them in a lie. I've seen gunsmiths try to do this in any number of ways; call for a mass claim, try to just flat out wagon a person to a claim, ect. I've never seen "fakeclaim cop, demand a claim, then tell the truth about your role after they claim", but it makes sense as a gunsmith gambit.

[Yosarian2]

Also, if he was going to fake a guilty, why not just say that he got the guilty last night?

None of this makes any sense as a scum gambit. Scum gambits tend to be neat and simple. This kind of messy combobulation usually means that what you've got is a pro-town person telling the truth (and making some poor decisions).

[Yosarian2]

I haven't really thought about the implications of David X's claim for Hydra and Yosarian yet, but on a first glace, I feel that Hydra has handled today more like I'd expect from town than Yos.

I think hydra is playing for the scum win condition here, the only way he can.

Think about it. Assume for a minute that there's a 2 man scumteam. How can they win at this point? If we lynch ether Xantos or MBL and then vig the other if that one flips scum, then we go into tommorow with 1 scum vs. 4 town or 1 scum vs. 5 town with multiple confirmed innocents, which is probably not winnable for the scum.

On the other hand, if he can mislynch some other random townie today, the vig still won't know who to shoot tonight. That leaves the possibility open that he can then lynch the town one out of (Xantos, MBL) and win the game tommorow.

(Of course, lynching a random townie and leaving the vig guessing tonight also works in the scum's benefit if there's a 3 man scum group, but I'm having trouble seeing how there could be one at this point.

Yosarian - how certain are you that your vote is on scum?

At this point, I'm reasonably certain. I really can't see this as making any sense as a scum gambit at all; Xantos wasn't even in any immediate risk of being lynched today. It doesn't GAIN him anything, and if he was going to try a gambit, why not just say "Hey, I'm the cop, I investigated MBL last night and he's scum, lynch him pls."

Also, he really just feels like town at this point to me.

[Yosarian2]

Hence, even if you have some kind of point I'm not understanding in the fakeclaim-cop gambit talk, the utility was pretty marginal because the vig was already out.

There are other roles other then vig that show up as having guns to a gunsmith, you know. If someone claims gunsmith and claims to have seen a gun on you, you can also claim cop or something. At the very least, then you get into a big meta argument about "is it possible for there to be both a cop and a gunsmith in a large game" blah blah blah, and who knows what'll happen.

It's always much better if you can actually get the person to claim before you do if you're a gunsmith with a "gun" result. And I think that's what Xantos was trying to do:

Claim. Right now.

You want to accuse me of lying, claim your role, and I'll reveal full details of my own.

This was before he changed his claim to gunsmith.

This raises another point. If Xantos is a mafia goon, then how did he know he wasn't going to get counterclaimed by a real cop or other info role? Personally, I'd normally assume there'd be more then just a tracker as far as town info roles go in a large normal game. On the other hand, as a gunsmith, it makes sense to assume he's the only town info role left.

And this is before we have to explain people lurking to replacement in a slot that has a guilty on someone. <_<

Not so much "lurking" as "never actually playing the game at all and then flaking out". Also, not "people"; Pine is the only other one who was in the slot after the guilty, although MBL misrepresented the facts to imply that both earworm and pine failed to claim the result.

[Yosarian2]

2. Ever since he claimed, Xanatos has almost exclusively argued in defense of himself, why he should be trusted, why lynching him would be bad, he's thrown everything but the kitchen sink, really, concocting theories so nonsensical and poorly reasoned that I find it very difficult to believe that even an inexperienced player would suggest them in earnest. The one thing he hasn't done is present any kind of case against MBL beyond "he's guilty". This is a point against him that not only applies to his D3 play (where he barely mentioned him despite allegedly having a result on him), but today as well in my opinion.

How is that a point against him at all?

When you're a cop, and you claim a guilty on someone, your only job for the rest of the day is to convince the town that they should trust you and not the person you have a guilty on, so they lynch the scum instead of you. That's 100% typical cop behavior.

The thing about him "not making any other arguments against MBL" isn't a point against him, either. He's a cop with a guilty. Why would you expect him to make any case other then that?

I'm about ready to lynch him, but I want to adress some Yos related stuff before dropping my vote. And I do want MBL to claim before all is said and done.

You don't need worry about me. Xantos already confirmed that I don't have a gun, so no matter if you lynch Xantos or MBL, once we know for a fact that Xantos is town, I'm 100% confirmed town. If I'm wrong and Xantos flips scum, then it's different, but either way it makes no sense to worry about it until we know Xantos's alignment.

Frankly, with me confirmed town, 2 neighbors confirmed town, confirmed town vig, and you semi-confirmed, we probably win no matter what at this point, no matter if you lynch Xantos or MBL. Still, I'd really rather we lynch the scum today, just to be safe.

[Yosarian2]

That is to say, I got "No Result" as opposed to "Guilty", or I presume, "Innocent". It wouldn't make sense for the opposite of "Guilty" to be "No Result".

Oh, I see. I misread that.

Well, it often is for gunsmiths/trackers/ect. For some mods, you either get a result, or no result, with "no result" possibly meaning either "no gun" or "roleblocked", depending. But that's usually mods that would say "gun found" vs "no result", so, yeah, that likely means you got roleblocked. Darn it.

Well, you might as well check with the mod, anyway.

[Yosarian2]

No, not semantics. Your whole argument that you tried to "trap" MBL hinges on the fact that "has a gun" and "guilty" are

not

interchangeable, and the whole point of that post was to evaluate the exact wording of what you claim to have gotten vs. what one would expect to get. It's pretty evident that you mixed up your fake-claims just now.

vote: David Xanatos

Iecerint, please shoot Yosarian.

No, you moron, Xantos flips pro-town gunsmith, which it's INCREDIBLY obvious that he will to anyone who's actually reading the game, Iecerint is going to shoot MBL, and then wer'e going to lynch Hydra tomorrow. Then, if the game's not over, you're probably the last scum, especially if MBL flips scum rolecop.

[Yosarian2]

I don't really get how anyone in their right minds could think Xantos is scum at this point. If someone wants to explain to me how ANY of this makes ANY sense from a scum point of view, then please do, because he just seems increasingly town to me the more you guys badger him.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, I do NOT appreciate being called a moron for voting a player who's so obviously lying his ass off even the fucking blind can see it. A gunsmith gets "has a gun"/"doesn't have a gun", NOT "guilty"/"innocent", THAT does not make any sense. It's the whole point of the fucking role. Xanatos is asking me to believe that the mod fucked up in his role PM when the obvious solution to this mystery is that he simply forgot that he fakeclaimed gunsmith, not cop, when he made that post.

Considering how often I've seen mods make that kind of error in games, I hardly think that's a strong argument at all. If anything, that makes him look more town to me.

I am sorry I called you a moron; that's not fair, you're not one. But I'm getting so frustrated by people not willing to see the obvious here; it's so obvious to me at this point that Xantos is telling the truth, basically every post of his screams town.

[Yosarian2]

Why didn't anyone say "DH, just fucking read ISO 14"?

Wow, I didn't even see that post. He thinks he knows why the SK doesn't have a gun? That is strong.

Anyway, if there's 2 scum, it's MBL/Hydra. If there's 3 scum, then that means scum have a rolecop, and it has to be MBL/Hydra/CTD (with CTD knowing the doc claim was a lie becuase the scum rolecop targeted the SK). (I've done almost that exact gambit as scum before, heh.)

When MBL flips scum, Icerent shoot hydra, Xantos investigate whoever you want (the three unconfirmed are me, Hydra, and CTD); and CTD, flip a coin and protect either Icerent or Xantos. With any luck, MBL is the scum roleblocker. If he's not, scum are going to try to roleblock one of the power roles and kill the other, but if CTD *is* actually town, they're going to have a hard time doing that. Also, remember, if we don't lynch the roleblocker today, then we have to assume that one of the power roles will fail tonight, so don't worry too much about you both targeting the same person.

[Yosarian2]

Lynch MBL.

If town, shoot David, then follow an alternate reality of lynch Yos, shoot/lynch hydra. If scum, shoot Yosarian.

Did you seriously just tell the vig to shoot me if it turns out I've been right about MBL all day?

I mean, so long as Hydra gets lynched tommorow, it doesn't really matter that much, but yikes.

[Yosarian2]

Fuck I think town just lost.

Heh. "I can pretend to be stupid and then town'll believe I'm not scum with MBL"

Nice try, buddy.

[Yosarian2]

I do apologize for lynching Parama and saporovirus--I can see how that might have been perceived as scummy of me. I will try harder to convince you next game.

Lol. No, I lynched Para. remember me, the guy you and your buddy hydra have been attacking all day?

That being said, I think we are going to need to invent a new scummy category for "most convincing post-death scum performance" for MBL here.

[Yosarian2]

aight everyone needs to claim night actions

(nods) That's a good idea; with the mafia roleblocker dead, lack of a vig kill could mean Icerent hit the mafia godfather.

[Yosarian2]

Vote: Yosarian

For a while, Toast and I were worried that this was an MBL+DX gambit. Thanks for not creating that doubt in my mind.

You're not even going to wait for Icerent to claim his result (which I'm betting is a failed kill on Hydra) before going back to the same stupid tunnel you've been doing all game? Sheesh.

[Yosarian2]

You think Icerent would shoot...the confirmed gunsmith who just lynched the mafia roleblocker? What are you, high?

How in the world could you ever have thought of that as a gambit? It was SO OBVIOUS Xantos was town yesterday, and he lynched the MAFIA ROLEBLOCKER, in a game where there was a claimed vig and a claimed cop. That would be the dumbest scum play in the history of the website.

Right now, there's a 90% chance that Hydra is the last scum, and perhaps a 10% chance that Hydra and CTD is scum. The fact that the scum killed the cop and apparently knew he wouldn't get doc protection, despite CTD's promise yesterday to flip a coin, is a pretty big black mark against CTD, but it's possibly Hydra was just that desprate to take a chance, especally if he's kill immune but not gunsmith immune.

[Yosarian2]

If he shot you or Hydra and you didn't die, that could mean bulletproof scum, could it not?

Yes, it almost certainly does. It means that the person he shot is the mafia godfather, and that is the person we're lynching today.

Let me make this even easier; I am not bulletproof. I am a vanilla townie. If I got shot, I would be dead.

Do you really not get why we want to hear Icerent's result before we lynch?

[Yosarian2]

I remember specifically that everyone asked for Iecerint to be protected, so your point is moot.

100% wrong.

I told CTD to flip a coin and either protect Icerent or Xantos.

CTD said he would do it.

[Yosarian2]

For reference:

When MBL flips scum, Icerent shoot hydra, Xantos investigate whoever you want (the three unconfirmed are me, Hydra, and CTD); and CTD, flip a coin and protect either Icerent or Xantos. With any luck, MBL is the scum roleblocker. If he's not, scum are going to try to roleblock one of the power roles and kill the other, but if CTD *is* actually town, they're going to have a hard time doing that. Also, remember, if we don't lynch the roleblocker today, then we have to assume that one of the power roles will fail tonight, so don't worry too much about you both targeting the same person.

Yos' suggested night actions look solid to me.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) Just for the principle of the matter, we should really hear Icerent's claim before we lynch anyone, although the only way it could make a difference is if Icerent claims he tried to kill, I donno, CTD or someone, and I don't really see that happening.

So, why not.

Vote:Hydra

[Yosarian2]

Yup. You, Toast, and Iece are all confirmed town.

In theory, though, if there are 2 scum left (which, from my point of view, would mean hydra + CTD), if we lynch wrong today, and Icerent somehow fails to kill again tonight, town could lose tonight. I don't think that's likely at all, I just don't want to risk throwing away a won game.

[Yosarian2]

And you joined in 2005? You've had a sheltered mafia career. Haven't seen any game-winning clutch scum vs. scum bus gambits, haven't you?

This is kind of a side point, but...

If there's a lot of confirmed townies, and a vig, and you can't kill the vig right away, then you've got a big problem. Bussing the mafia roleblocker, the one solution TO that problem, would be just terrible scum play. If you REALLY wanted to bus someone, you'd bus someone else. The fact that the scum roleblocker died yesterday is the main reason that now town probably can't lose.

I really don't get why you would have suspected me over Hydra in the first place. You did notice that I really prevented Xantos from being lynched instead of MBL yesterday night, and that the mafia roleblocker staying alive for another day while the cop was dead would have stopped the town from getting into a "can't lose" situation, right? I pretty much won the game for the town yesterday by trusting Xantos over MBL, while Hydra was trying to save MBL by trying to lynch me instead. Not to mention that I also caught the other scum in the first place while protecting you.

Meh. This whole post should probably have waited until post-game discussion, but I'm pretty sure we've won now, lol.

[Yosarian2]

Also, I read all of today quickly, the fact that Yosarian first thoughts were going straight to claiming that he is 'not bulletproof' and then claiming the player who did get shot it mafia godfather is insane, and then claims 'vanilla townie' as if that proves he isn't mafia, speaks of scum panic and mentality.

(shrug) I claimed "not bulletproof" before I knew who Icerenet had targeted. If I was scum, that would have been fairly risky.

It's a shame Icerent dosn't have a guilty on you, but it dosn't change anything; you're still scum.

You know, you guys keep using the term "Mafia Godfather" as someone who's bulletproof, rather than someone who shows up as innocent in a cop investigation. That's not usual in today's meta.

It can be either, or both, in a normal game. It's on the wiki as such.

[Yosarian2]

I wanted to draw the RB yesterday given that it existed (I don't have any other use), so I didn't claim yesterday. The fact that MBL flipped RBer in hindsight means claiming would've been better, but ye know.

(nods) Yeah, I believe you, Iecerint. Your keeping that hidden makes perfect sense in context.

[Yosarian2]

Also, please not Yos needless buddying Iec. 'Oh, yes, confirmed town, you made the right decision ::brohugs::"
Gosh, good call, because, y'know, there was totally about to be a wagon of shame steamrolled onto him because of that decision.

Heh, classic. When all else fails, try to make the townies paranoid that someone's buddying up to them, huh? Always worth a try when you're a cornered scum, but it's not going to work here.

[Yosarian2]

Frankly, Yos, the thought had occurred to me before he pointed it out. The utility of the post is kind of null other than to express nice things about me, which is not particularly productive, etc.

Meh. You expressed some misgivings about your own claim. I said that I think your behavior makes sense from a town point of view. (shrug)

Did you expect people to stop trusting you just because you didn't fullclaim yesterday, in a situation where not fullclaiming make pro-town sense? Or did you just not expect people to think about you at all? I don't really understand what the objection is here.

[Yosarian2]

By the same logic we shouldn't be scum because of the Parama wagon, and we should lynch Yos first.

You mean, the wagon that I pushed for most of day 2?

We all know that you're scum with MBL. It's completely obvious from both of your play yesterday. You tried to lynch me instead of him, even though he had a cop guilty on him, because you wanted to keep your scum roleblocker alive. You can try to distract from that fact with whatever BS you want to, but yesterday, you thought there was a cop and a vig alive, and you were willing to do anything to keep your roleblocker alive even if just for another night, because you thought you would need him.

[Yosarian2]

In fact, you played in a game called Aggressive Mind Game mafia where scum fakeclaimed a cop guilty on

YOU,

so I don't think it is outside the realm of possibilities to consider this result here was faked. Yet, you didn't think this was at all possible this game, instead basically sticking on MBL all day. The difference is you knew MBL was scum here.

Of course I considered the possibility. If you don't know that, you obviously didn't read my posts yesterday, since I discussed it at fairly great length. I asked Xantos a series of questions about his actions and motives, figured out he was almost certanly town based on motive and behavior, and then voted for MBL. It's called playing mafia.

The fact that you apparently didn't read my posts yesterday is interesting, since you were voting for me for the entire day. If you weren't even trying to get a read on my alignment, then you must have had some other motive for voting for me; the most obvious one is that you were trying to protect my scumbuddy.

The "aggressive mind games" example is a fairly terrible one, as I'm sure you know. That was a scum who was going to get lynched anyway trying to take a town down with him. As I carefully established yesterday, Xantos had no such motivation at all.

So given the fact two people had been taken out of the equation with a 50/50 chance of scum among them, I immediately latched onto the person who from my perspective I knew had the highest chance of being scum, which was Yosarian2. You're using hindsight bias extraordinarily well there to try and paint me as scum.

Hindsight bias? Pah. I figured out you were MBL's buddy yesterday.

Yes, knowing then what I know now about alignments, I would have voted MBL. But I didn't. I couldn't figure it out, but I could figure out one thing. Knowing I was town, you were the clear logical choice for me to vote, because I was most certain of you being scum.

You "couldn't figure it out"? Bull. You never even TRIED to figure it out, which is a completely different thing. We had a cop claim a guilty on another person, and you did your best to ignore the whole situation and try to distract the town into lynching a third party. If you had tried to figure it out, if you had even commented on which one of the two was more likely scum, that'd be one thing, but you carefully avoided ever doing anything like that, lest you link yourself to your buddy.

That's a classic scum mistake; ignoring the cop claim makes sense if you don't want to lynch your buddy but don't want to be seen defending him, but there's no way a townie would have absolutely no opinion on the whole "cop claimed a guilty on a buddy" situation the way you were pretending t

And as for your last point, you seemed to have rendered it moot by your own words here today. You say that I would be afraid of the gunsmith and vigilante, yet then accuse and bring up the possibility that I could be a godfather, with kill or investigation immunity, which would invalidate your own point here about being afraid of those two roles.

Um, no. I thought you were a godfather when I thought Icerent had tried to kill you and failed, which I thought was the most likely explanation for the lack of a vig kill despite the dead roleblocker. Now that I know that's not actually true, odds are you're probably just a goon.

As a goon, the last thing you would want to do is to let your roleblocker be lynched in a cop-vig situation. You also didn't want to have him confirmed as scum by lynching the cop, though, especally not when a vig was alive. So you took the desperate scum move of trying to lynch a third party.

Your actions make perfect sense from a scum. They don't actually make sense if you were town, though.

I think you're contradicting yourself at several turns, using significant logical fallacies, and have played towards a scum win condition this entire game, which Is why I feel very confident in my vote on you.

Lol. No contradiction, no logical fallacies. You're scum, and you're caught scum.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, yeah. You guys talk a good game, but I think you know you've lost. All the walls of text, emotional manipulation, and "scum slip lol" foolery in the world isn't going to save you at this point, because smart townies aren't even reading your BS today, they're looking at how you acted when your scum buddy was lynched yesterday.

On a side note, I really hope you're the last scum. I've got to say, though, that it really bugs me that CTD has defended all 3 scum during the course of the game; he defended Parama/Bowser, and yesterday he defended both MBL and Hydra to the hilt. If he's town, that's got to be some kind of record. So, is he your buddy, or not?

If the moons align and you do somehow manage to get me lynched, then when I flip town, who would you want to lynch tommorow?

[Yosarian2]

Heh. You keep going on and on, but I guess you're never going to answer my question, right hydra? I'm not surprised.

[Yosarian2]

I don't think CTD would have counter-claimed doc like that. Even if they knew KJ was lying because of a rolecop, it would just set him up for CC by the real doc.

Eh. Not really convinced by that argument. CTD waited quite a while before counterclaiming, I'm pretty sure basically everyone else in the game had posted after the doc claim but before the counterclaim. I think he'd know by that point that if anyone else was planning to counterclaim, they would have already done it.

I hope you're right, though. If CTD is town and Hydra is the last scum, that makes this so much easier.

[Yosarian2]

I'm pretty sure lynching you ends the game, because you're going to flip scum. I see no real purpose to this question, Yosarian. I suppose there is a small possibility it isn't you, and I'm not certain about anyone until their alignment is actually revealed. But questions like this make me doubt that you are actually going to flip town.

Oh, the question has a very important purpose. The purpose is to see if you're willing to either commit right now to saying "everyone but Yos is confirmed town, if he flips, lynch me tommorow", or, alternatly, to see if you're willing to actually think and try to figure out who you think is most likely to be scum if I'm town. The fact that you're not willing to do either today is pretty clear proof of you being scum. The hard question is, is it because you have a buddy and don't want to link to him, or is it because you don't have a buddy and are trying to leave you options open for tomorrow if you somehow survive today?

Seriously, are the last few posts by you all the reasons you have against me and want me to answer?

You are clearly linked to dead scum. It's that simple. No one needs any more reason then that, and no amount of wall-posting on your part changes the fact. So, no, I'm not going to waste time trading pointless walls with you at this point. It's not like I'm going to convince you to vote yourself.

I have a question for you

Hey Yosarian, is Mars aligns with Venus on the fourteenth of the month of the year of the rabbit and I get lynched, when I flip town, who are you going to want to lynch tomorrow?

Nice try, but I already answered this question. I think everyone in the game is confirmed town except for you and CTD, so if we lynch you and that somehow doesn't end the game, either because you have a scumbuddy or because you (lol) flip town, tomorrow I'm going to vote for CTD.

There, you see? Not a hard question to answer. So why are you so reluctant to do so?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, we're not going to get anything out of Hydra today. I guess he's going to die before doing anything that might connect him to his hypothetical buddy, like analyze the alignments of other people in the game. Oh, well, it was worth a try.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, one point I asked you;

I'll definitely read over everyone in the game, but I'm not going to lynch myself because I was wrong about you. (have you ever said or done this in a game before, which is what you're suggesting pro-town behavior is? If so, can you link them)

~~~~

Yeah, we're not going to get anything out of Hydra today. I guess he's going to die before doing anything that might connect him to his hypothetical buddy, like analyze the alignments of other people in the game. Oh, well, it was worth a try.

Well, I don't plan on being lynched here. Do you usually try and scumhunt by talking in many hypothetical situations?

Pro-town behavior would be for you to be willing to comment on other people in the game. If you're just THAT sure that everyone else is town, then say so. If you're not, then say that.

[Yosarian2]

Mod: Prod on Toasty and CTD

V/LA YOU

And reading this makes it a clear 1v1 between yosarian and Hydra.
Which one claimed bulletproof again?

No one claimed bulletproof. I assumed the vig was going to shoot Hydra last night, so when the day started and there wasn't a vig kill even though the scum roleblocker was dead, I was thinking that Hydra was probably a bulletproof godfather. As it turned out, the vig had just ran out of shots.

[Yosarian2]

I've acted protown this entire game. I may have been wrong yesterday about DX being scum, but It came directly from a protown mindset. Yosarian hasn't shown that. I really have no idea what Yosarian's reason for voting me is besides 'he looks bad', with very little follow up explanation.

You have no idea? You tried to protect the mafia roleblocker yesterday by trying to mislynch me. You directly played to further the scum's win condition, period.

You also kept insisting that either me or you has to be scum, and have been since yesterday, and in fact yesterday you tried to use the fact that I wanted to lynch MBL instead of you as an argument AGAINST me. Now you're saying you "don't understand why I'm voting you"?

Of course, your behavior today has been incredibly scummy as well, especially your flat and blanket refusal to comment on anyone in the game other then me, but that's fairly minor compared to the main points against me.

Yosarian has acted scummy all game, has straight up lied today in attacking me today, has asked innane logical questions that serve no purpose, and the thing that tips you to not vote him is because he hypothesized that there was a mafia godfather in play, and he was wrong? No, look at his play the entire game.

I don't know where you get off claiming I've been "scummy all game". I was wrong about AGM on day 1, but I was right when I attacked Parama and defended DH on day 2; I took a brief detour to figure out PJ's alignment, but I figured otu he was probably town even while he was trying to have me lynched and went back to getting Parama lynched for the rest of the day. I figured out Shanba was probably town and fought against him being lynched for much of the game (even while he was attacking me). You attacked me a great deal because I was defending Shanba while you wanted to mislynch him, but I stuck to my guns, even though you, mastin, and several others were constantly attacking me for defending Shanba.

I had some doubts SV early on, but after Param flipped scum, I figured out that her interactions with her meant she was probably not scum with him and defended her. (She was SK, so as it turns out I shouldn't have defended her, but my read that she was not scum with parama was right, and the fact that I tried to stop her from being lynched makes no sense from a scum perspective at all.)

And, of course, yesterday, when a cop claimed a guilty on someone else, I carefully analyzed both of their play, asked the cop a series of questions, figured out that cop was probably town, and mislynched the cop's guilty, who was the mafia roleblocker>

All game, my play has been pro-town, I've done a good job scumhunting, and my reads have generally been pretty accurate. I was right Meran was town on day 1, I was right Icerent and earwig were town on day 2, ect. I've certainly been playing much more pro-town then you have all game.

As for you other point; I just want to you to answer a simple question, I want you analyze the alignment of the other living people in the game. If you are 100% sure that everyone but me is town, say that, and say why. If you are not, then say that, and say why and who. Every townie should always be able to answer a question about who their suspects are and are not. You keep refusing to do so. You are therefore flatly refusing to scumhunt, period. You're just calling that "innane" because it's not in your interests, as scum, to answer my question today.

[Yosarian2]

*that's fairly minor compared to the main points against me.

Lol. I'll go ahead and correct this to what I obviously meant, "the main points against you" before Hydra, tries another stupid "lol scumslip" gambit in order to avoid answering any of my actual points.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, I actually think your COMMENT ON OTHERS HYDRA insistence has been a bit scummy. If there's only one scum left, then postulating lots of secondary or tertiary solitary suspects can only have the effect of alienating him OR confusing those of us deliberating.

You can flip this around and say that Hydra isn't talking about us to AVOID alienating us, which is also scummy, but your insistence that he implicate others doesn't do much for me...

Just sayin.

(shrug) If Hydra was town, and he saw that he was likely get lynched, then I would expect him to WANT to impart all of his wisdom to us before dying. Townies generally want do that. If he is 100% sure that I have to be the last scum and that everyone else has to be town, I'd expect him to say that; and if he thinks there's a chance someone else is scum, I'd expect him to say that.

On the other hand, if Hydra is the last scum, I would expect him to want to leave his options open for who to go after tomorrow if he survives today. Or, conversely, if he has a buddy, I'd expect him to do everything he could to avoid commenting on any other players to make it harder to find his buddy tomorrow after we lynch him. And you're right, a scum in his position would be worried about alienating people, but I don't think that would be at the top of a townie's mind in this situation.

Townies are usually pretty free with sharing their thoughts on the game. In this case, I would expect a scum in Hydra's place to be close-lipped, for tactical reasons. And it's pretty amazing the way he's flailing around to try to avoid answering the question at all. He even asked it to me, I answered it instantly and in full, and he still won't budge.

[Yosarian2]

You tried to protect the mafia roleblocker yesterday by trying to mislynch me. You directly played to further the scum's win condition, period.

You're implying here that somehow I should have known that MBL was both scum and the scum roleblocker yesterday, when In reality I had no idea this was the case.-

If you act in a way that furthers the scum win condition, then it increases the chance you are scum. Or, to put it another way, I would expect scum to try to derail the MBL wagon yesterday, and you tried to derail the MBL wagon yesterday.

I perused Mafia Discussion, and see you here with the same mindset I presented yesterday, not trusting them or dismissing them but trying to figure out who was lying or not, which is incidently what you are painting as a major 'scumtell for me';

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 0#p3355990

Um, no. Yesterday, I tried to figure out if Xantos was lying or not by carefully reading his background, asking him a series of questions, looking at the person he repalced, ect, and I came to the conclusion he was probably town. This conclusion became more and more clear through the corse of the day, as more facts came out; the way you and MBL seemed to be working as a team to try to lynch either me or Xantos in order to protect MBL, the fairly obvious honesty of Xantos's tone, the fact that there is no way a scum would make up a story like that as a gambit. I used logic and reasoning to figure out that Xantos was town and MBL was scum, which is pretty much what I said you should do in that MD post you're quoting.

Anyway, the thing you're not getting here is that it doesn't matter. You defended scum, and tried to prevent scum from being lynched. Defending scum is ALWAYS a scumtell, a sign that the person doing it is more likely their buddy, because scum obviously have a huge motive in defending each other. That motive is especally large in a situation like yesterday, when (since they didn't know that Icerent was out of shots) the scum would have quite badly wanted to keep their roleblocker alive. In other words, there is a certain way that scum would logically be expected to act yesterday, given the facts of the gamestate at the time, and that is the way that you acted.

You on the other hand, seemed exceedingly certain he

WAS

going to flip scum, even past the point when it might have been logical to question your own read (re: he claimed town post hammer). Thats what also convinced me that you maybe had inside knowledge of his role, then.

By that point, it was incredibly bloody obvious. I really don't understand how anyone could have still doubted that Xantos was town and MBL was scum after that breadcrumb came out; it was pretty obvious before that point anyway, but after that point, no one should have had any doubt. MBL put on a good theatre performance post-lynch, but I don't know why anyone would have taken it seriously when all the facts were on the other side.

[Yosarian2]

Some of that isn't true, as MBL certainly never voted you, and I voted DX on independent reasons.

No, MBL didn't vote me, but he supported your wagon on me. And you supported his wagon on DX.

Examples of posts where MBL gave support to your wagon for me:

Ok. Xanatos is scum. He needs four more votes to get his desired mislynch. Good luck with that. I'm guessing the scumteam went with a gambit today because their odds of lynching town didn't look good, and because they're running out of options. They picked the wrong person to mess with.

Yos pretty much has to be X's scumpartner at this point. If Yos was town, I'm pretty sure X would have claimed his fake result on Yos instead of on me, or just pushed for a Yos lynch instead of a MBL lynch today without bothering to risk the fakeclaim. The fakeclaim play is actually probably optimal coming from a Yos+X scumteam--they saw the lynch+vig writing on the wall and went proactive.

They don't appear to have mentioned each other yesterday. In fact, here's part of the post Xanatos claims to have held back on yesterday:

8.

CrashTextDummie

- Unknown.
13.

Yosarian2

- Unknown.
14.

Shanba

- Unknown.
16.

Hydra

- Unknown.

Here are Xanatos's only attacks yesterday:

Hydra

> What're your reasons for voting KJ? You promised "brilliance" and "awesomeness" and have delivered... a vague poke and what looks like ADD.

Seriously. You don't get to post 4 times in 4 days and then whine there's not enough thread activity. Especially when you still haven't delivered the promised case, and repeatedly use words like "definitely" without knowing how to spell them.

And the main thing was the direct contrast between

Shanba

's first post, attempting to call someone out for "parking his vote", and then going on to park his vote on saporo, then do the same on Yos, and then again on Pine... at first I read him as Town trying to start a policy lynch wagon, but when I noticed that pattern, it went straight out the window.. Because if he's Scum, as I believe he is, it's in his interests to restrict the information Town can acquire before the Night phase. Scum are the informed minority, the less information Town can put together, the easier it is for the Scum team.

There'll be more pressure on

CTD

with a Shanba flip. He claimed Shanba was scummy repeatedly, and even goes so far as to say he fits as a Parama buddy, then drops everything in favour of a case on KJ built, from what I can see, entirely on the fact KJ speculated about the SK. Coupled with saying the Shanba wagon "has merit", and apparently believing that a Doc claim should be ignored over moving to your second suspect.. I don't like it either, but we'll know a lot more from a flip.

And on Yos and MBL, nothing:

Yos

, you willing to hammer Shanba?

I find

MBL

's reads rather interesting..

That's it.

Makes cases on three of his "unknowns" but ignores the other two unknowns.

Lets someone he says is a townie get run up to L-1:

KJ I'm leaning townish, but will need to look over his predecessor.

And doesn't claim a result, makes no case of any kind, doesn't even whisper a passing suspicion of the person he claims a guilty on?

Bitch, please.

It feels oily to compare my play to the play of others, so I'll leave it at this generality: my play this game has been significantly more pro-town than that of earworm, Pine, Xanatos or Yos. For you to insinuate otherwise, Xanatos, is ridiculous, especially to insinuate such in comparison to the way your scumteam has played. For example, here's all Yos said about Parama D1:

On a side note, Parama's most recent posts are somewhere between useless and terrible. Post better, give better answers to PJ's questions. Not really happy with you right now.

That is the definition of scum pissed off at their scumpartner.

And I repeat, Yosarian is the only player earworm did not mention D1, and Yos did not mention or question earworm at all D1 either.

Xanatos is scum, and Yos-scum fits the pattern of pushing townies and selectively ignoring/being ignored by his teammates.

MBL was doing everything he could to support your wagon on me, while still keeping his vote on Xantos. I have no doubt that if it had looked like I was close to getting lynched, that he would have helped you lynch me.

Meanwhile, you were doing everyting you could to support both the wagon on me and the wagon on Xantos. For example:

I also have a guilty read on MBL from a previous night. (N1 to be exact. N2 Pine didn't submit an action.. I'll never understand inactive PRs..)

There is no way this this hydra believe this is true.

For one thing, busting this read out at potentially lynch or lose, assuming four scum, and I did notice how you try and subtly (or not so, heh) paint this as

not

lynch or lose

I'd be inclined to think 3+SK.

is very suspect in and of itself.

If you had such an awesome report, your slot

would

have claimed it on day two, or day three, or you persnoally as soon as you got into the game, and not sat on it.

There was no guarentee of a anti-town lynch at all yesterday, in fact of the two dueling wagons one flipped town and had the probabilty of being mislynched while you sat on an

apparent guilty result.

That is not something town does.

I'm very confident this was a scum gambit to win the game.

Vote: David X

The two of you were working as a tag-team yesterday, trying to lynch either me or Xantos. It's clear from your posts and from all of his posts. You guys didn't really care which one of us you lynched, so long as you kept your scum roleblocker alive.

Also, its untrue of you to say I defended scum. I said that one of MBL and DX was scum, and after lynching you (as scum yesterday), the vig would shoot MBL to either confirm him as scum or DX as scum.

You argued at length that the cop who got a guilty on MBL was lying scum. (See the quote above, for example). By doing that, you were defending MBL. That's pretty much the only way you could have defended MBL at that point.

[Yosarian2]

You call me out on voting you, but you don't

1. Mention DH who voted both DX and you, because you don't want him to move his vote now
2. Call out Iece, who has expressed today that he had the same sentiment as I did yesterday that DX could have been fake claiming and was generally unsure of the situation
3. Really go after CTD, who voted for DX yesterday, instead preparing to lynch him tomorrow should I flip town
(4. Even talk about toasty really)

Toasty's been obvtown since day 1.

Even if it wasn't for the whole neighbors thing, DH would be pretty clearly town here. Just the way he reacted to the revelation of the breadcrumb was so clearly town. And with the neighbor thing, he has to be town; I pointed this out earlier when CTD raised the possibility of him being scum; for one thing, if he was scum, that would mean scum-Parama and scum-DH first attacked Toasty in thread and then confirmed him as town. It totally defies belief; there is no way DH and Parama were both scum, the way day 1 unfolded.

Iece is a confirmed vig, and the SK is dead. Plus he played a big role in eventually lynching MBL yesterday.

And, no, I didn't "really go after" CTD to the same extent I went after you; I'm not happy with his play, but the evidence against you right now is much stronger, especially the obvious links to MBL I just pointed out in my post above.

So, what do you think about all those people? Are you going to finally answer that question?

[Yosarian2]

As for the "changing my attack on you"; you're right. I was incorrect early in the day today; you didn't ignore the cop vs. scum debate, you actively jumped into it and did everything you could to attack the cop and protect the scum. My mistake. Of course, that just makes you significantly more scummy, not less scummy.

[Yosarian2]

One thing that does concern me a whole lot is the fact that Yos is trying to cast doubt on my claim at every possible junction, which indicates an endgame-agenda to me.

(shrug) You've defended the entire scum team at one point or another this game. First you defended Parama, and yesterday you defended both MBL and Hydra. So, yeah, I have some doubts about you as a possible Hydra partner, despite the claim.

That being said, the most likely scenario here is still that Hydra is the last scum.

[Yosarian2]

To be fair, if CTD was scum with Hydra, I wouldn't expect to hear him make this argument at all:

First thing's first: A Hydra/Yos tag team could have quicklynched DX yesterday. Since I very seriously doubt a second scum in the neighborhood, I don't think DH is scum with either one of Yos/Hydra. And Toasty is 100% confirmed in my eyes; not only is he a neighbor, he could have quicklynched with either one of Yos/Hydra yesterday. In all likelyhood, we're looking at one scum left between Yos and Hydra.

So the odds of him being scum just went down a little more in my mind.

[Yosarian2]

One thing I wanted to point out that I forgot:
As I said previously, I would have preferred it if Iecerint hadn't announced why there was no kill from him last night. It would have left the scum guessing (missed another deadline? decided not to shoot? out of shots?), which is always preferable. I see speculation on this as detrimental at best and scummy at worst. I know Yosarian is guilty of this because it was a point of discussion on this page, but I'd have to read back to see who else engaged in this kind of speculation.

Either it's lynch or lose, or there's only 1 scum left. I was assuming that whoever Iecerint tried and failed to kill was scum, so it was defiantly worth asking him to claim his target in this situation.

With the scum roleblocker and the cop both already dead, how does having the information out there help the scum at this point anyway?

[Yosarian2]

Looks like I'm unexpectedly going to be V/LA this weekend, and possibly for 3 or 4 days.

If anyone has any questions you want me to answer before that point, I'll be around for the next few hours.

[Yosarian2]

Well, I'm confirmed town now, I think; it's not possible for me to be scum with Hydra on 2 days ago, or the game would have ended. Interestingly enough, CTD himself pointed this out yesterday, which was probably a mistake on his part; take a look at this vote count.

VC4.3

(0) DemonHybrid
(3) David Xanatos - MrBuddyLee, DemonHybrid, CrashTextDummie
(0) Iecerint
(0) CrashTextDummie
(2) MrBuddyLee - David Xanatos, Yosarian2
(2) Yosarian2 - Hydra
(0) Hydra
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: Iecerint, ToastyToast

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday, August 19, 11pm EST

Spoiler: Vote History

DemonHybrid - Yosarian2 > unvote > David Xanatos > unvote> Yosarian2 > David Xanatos
David Xanatos - MrBuddyLee
Iecerint -
CrashTextDummie - David Xanatos > unvote > David Xanatos
MrBuddyLee - David Xanatos
Yosarian2 - MrBuddyLee
Hydra - David Xanatos > Yosarian2
ToastyToast -

If there are any mistakes, please let me know

At this point, we were in lynch or lose; there were 3 scum (MBL, Hydra, and one more). If town had lynched wrong, and scum had killed, that would have been game over. And at this votecount, Xantos was at lynch -2 with neither me nor Hydra voting for him; if I had been scum with hydra, we would have quickhammered and that would have been game. It's not just this one vote count, either; if anyone re-reads that day, they should have no doubt that with it being lynch or lose, that if me and Hydra had been scum together, that we could quite easily have lynched Xantos and ended the game.

In fact, the other scum must have already been voting for Xantos at this point, or else Hydra and the other scum would have lynched Xantos and won. If Toasty or Icerent had been scum with Hydra and MBL, the same thing; they and Hydra would have both voted Xantos (they were both not voting at this time), I was thinking this through last night, and I had a moment of paranoia where I was doubting DH's alignment, but now that we know he's town, the only possible suspect left is CTD.

CTD has to be scum. If any other living person was scum, the game would have ended two days ago.

[Yosarian2]

That sounds plausible. I'm impressed with the doc claim to lynch the SK. That was very risky.

(nods) Yeah, he must be a scum rolecop to have pulled that off.

It makes sense, though. So far we've lynched 3 scum, and in every single one of those cases, he did everything he could to protect them. He defended and protected Parama, he defended MBL and tried to lynch Xantos two days ago, and he defended Hydra and tried to lynch me yesterday. Really everything he's done this game has been an attempt to achieve the scum win condition.

[Yosarian2]

It was a mistake on my part to point out that you couldn't be scum with Hydra, because it's not accurate. When Hydra came up scum and the game didn't end, I took a closer look at the time stamps:

The window to quicklynch was open from the time I voted Xanatos (August 9th, 10:22 AM my timezone) until DH unvoted him (August 10th, 2:52 AM).

During this time period, Yosarian made only 4 posts sitewide, between 1:11 PM and 1:37 PM, August 9th. Thor665 made 16 posts, between 5:08 PM and 8:02 PM, August 9th. Magister Ludi made 8 posts, between 6:38 PM on the 9th and 2 AM on the 10th. Yosarian simply wasn't online at the right time to facilitate the quicklynch.

That specific window is really irrelevent, CTD. Everyone who's read the game can see that if I had been scum with Hydra, we would have been able to lynch Xantos, and that would have been the end of the game. All I would have had to do was to say that I agreed with the arguments against Xantos and vote him, and I have no doubt he would have been lynched that day.

It was 5 votes to lynch. That means that if at any point 2 pro-town people were both attacking Xantos, the 3 scum would have joined the wagon and ended the game. It wouldn't even have had to be a quicklynch; it's not like the Xantos voters seemed likely to change their minds.

That means that when DH (dead town) was voting for Xantos, BOTH other people on the wagon (MBL and you) had to have been scum. There is no other possibility.

if anyone re-reads that day, they should have no doubt that with it being lynch or lose, that if me and Hydra had been scum together, that we could quite easily have lynched Xantos and ended the game.

Quite the opposite. The lynch pool had 4 people, 3 of which were scum with the odd man out having a guilty on another. Obviously you're not all gonna converge on Xanatos. No, you spread out evenly, one on Xanatos, one on MBL and one just hovering around. That way, you could wait for the quicklynch opportunity without drawing attention to yourselves.

Lol. Why would scum "spread their votes out" in lynch or lose if they could win by all voting the same person? Trying to keep votes spread around so you can suddenly spring a quicklynch is silly. Also, Hydra went from voting for Xantos to trying to lynch me, at a point when I already had several votes on me. Your theory would require that, in LYNCH OR LOSE, that 2 of the 3 members of the scum group suddenly started trying to bus, with me trying to bus MBL and Hydra trying to bus me; really, no one is that stupid.

I was doing everything I could to convince people to not vote for Xantos and to vote MBL instead, and I managed to succeed in that, despite everything you and Hydra could do to stop me.

Every single successful scum wagon this game, I was supporting it. I caught and lynched your entire scumgroup this game, CTD; you guys should really have nightkilled me earlier.

You made a really good gambit this game with the doc counterclaim, CTD. It gave you the credibility you needed to try and save your scumbuddies, and it's made you really hard to lynch, even though I've suspected you since day 3. That being said, you still logically have to be scum.

[Yosarian2]

In fact, let's do this.

Vote:CrashTextDummies

. He's confirmed scum here, period.

[Yosarian2]

He was clearly town. There was no way his play could have made sense as a scum gambit at all. I pointed this out any number of times, and you ignored all the logic. Also, you tried to use such minor points as "a mod would never give a gunsmith a guilty" to try to mislynch Xantos, even though I'm sure you must have seen mods do that before:

I still think Xanatos is flailing scum. I don't see any way his claim of ambiguity in the mod communication could be true, seeing as he settled on having received "has a gun" when called on his slip, which would have been really cut and dry if true. He's obviously squirming, changing his story every half page. And the only thing I'd consider unsportsmanlike behavior on the last page are the personal attacks against DemonHybrid.

vote: David Xanatos

Besides that, Hydra unvoted Xantos to vote for me, in a situation where I very well could have been lynched. The scum's only goal that day would have been to lynch town, any town; if they did that they won. It's completely clear that Hydra didn't really care if I was lynched or if Xantos was lynched, because we were both town.

[Yosarian2]

By the way: I apologize for the wall, but I'm going to sit down and go through CTD's posts and make sure everyone can see the pattern. He's been quite literally defending all of his buddies all game, every single chance he got, from day 1. He's defended and worked with both MBL and Hydra to try to secure mislynches on either Xantos or me for the past two days. The odds of a townie defending 3 out of 3 scum, and really not defending anyone else all game, are incredibly small.

tldr: scumlist as of end of D1:

scum:
Meransiel
Yos2
DemonHybrid

leaning scum:
PJ

grey glob of goo:
Mastin2
Icerint
saporovirus
Shanba
kondi2424

leaning town:
earworm
Parama

town:
Hydra
MBL

3rd and final part of Analysis coming up.

3 scum on the top of his townie list.

Then, a wishy-washy post that tried to have it both ways on Parama:

Parama/Bowser is somewhat of a double-edged sword for me. Mastin's case against him has some merit, but is reaching in other areas. There was really only a small number of arguments I agreed with, but they are there. On the other hand, his posting on D2 reminded me a lot of how I felt back in my own flaking-days. Both his attitude and his posting of a half-finished analysis gave me out-of-it-town vibes. And I don't see anything particularly scummy in Bowser's posts so far.

I do like the make up of his wagon (two confirmed players, 3 of my strongest town-reads, plus Yos), it certainly doesn't feel scum-fueled. But the fact that the scum seemingly don't have any interest whatsoever to get a counterwagon going, plus the way sapporovirus danced on and off it (more on that later) gives me pause. Not a fan of this lynch.

Followed by another post where he again puts Parama as town, for no reason.

tldr:

scum

:
DemonHybrid

leaning scum

:
killerjester
Shanba
Yos

neutral

:
Pine
ToastyToast

leaning town

:
Bowser
PJ
Hydra
MBL

confirmed town

:
Mastin
Meransiel
Icerint

Vote: DemonHybrid

Ignore the 3 confirmed town, he didn't have any choice about that. Of the 4 "probably town", 3 are scum.

Hi, sorry for getting up late, had a busy weekend.

I have several issues with David Xanatos' claim:
1. He gave no indication at all yesterday that he had a guilty on MBL. I don't really buy his argument that he "didn't want to make the town choose between a guilty investigation and a counterclaimed doc", because why the hell not? Choosing between scum and scum is a win/win situation with no real downside. I also have trouble believing that he felt no threat of being nightkilled. The SK was a completely unknown factor at that point.
2. The fact that he claims to have been roleblocked. I see no reason why the scum would roleblock David X when they had the opportunity to kill Iecerint instead.
3. Game balance: alien + 2 neighbors + tracker + vig + innocent child + doc + cop seems overkill to me, even with an SK in the mix and potential scum power roles.

Having said that, I do feel the need to reread both playerslots, as the strong town-read I have on MBL may be clouding my judgement.

---------------------

I haven't really thought about the implications of David X's claim for Hydra and Yosarian yet, but on a first glace, I feel that Hydra has handled today more like I'd expect from town than Yos.

---------------------

Here's a couple questions I'd like answered:
Xanatos - it appears to me that you didn't realize I was counter-claiming killerjester in Post 1210. Is that accurate?
MBL - why haven't you claimed yet?
Yosarian - how certain are you that your vote is on scum?

First post after the cop claim. He defends MBL and attacks Xantos, he then defends Hydra and supports Hydra's wagon on me.

I've done some rereading and I remain unconvinced of Xanatos claim. I have two main problems right now:

1. Most of what I heard in defense of it, from Xanatos and Yos, is "why would I/he do [this] as scum?", and the arguments that came in the form of "this is why I did [this] as town" crumble under scrutiny. I really don't care for that first line of reasoning - I don't know what roles the scum are playing with, I don't know who they all are and I therefore can't divine what purposes scum-Xanatos would have for his antics. For all I know, he could just be fucking with us because his team is thoroughly outconfirmed. I'm not gonna dismiss a play that doesn't make sense for a town player to make, just because on the surface, it doesn't make sense for scum either.
2. Ever since he claimed, Xanatos has almost exclusively argued in defense of himself, why he should be trusted, why lynching him would be bad, he's thrown everything but the kitchen sink, really, concocting theories so nonsensical and poorly reasoned that I find it very difficult to believe that even an inexperienced player would suggest them in earnest. The one thing he hasn't done is present any kind of case against MBL beyond "he's guilty". This is a point against him that not only applies to his D3 play (where he barely mentioned him despite allegedly having a result on him), but today as well in my opinion. He has acknowledged that his claim goes against the town-read the majority of players have had on MBL, and yet he does nothing at all to try to convince us of MBL's guilt beyond giving us his word and repeated pledges of his upstanding nature. What I would expect from a pro-town player in his position would be a case

against MBL

, not for own innocence. It feels incredibly counter-intuitive for him to go into complete defense-mode when he should be driving an attack.

I'm about ready to lynch him, but I want to adress some Yos related stuff before dropping my vote. And I do want MBL to claim before all is said and done.

At this point, CTD declares himself "about ready to lynch Xantos". No matter what he says today, I really think CTD really thought he was going to get Xantos lynched at the time he made that post; he didn't really seem to have any doubt. He also flirts with the Yos wagon that Hydra was pushing, leaving himself room to jump onto the Yos wagon if necessary to get a mislynch.

And as I said, I wanted to try and get MBL to dig a hole for himself with a claim. Anything that didn't fall under a role that would carry a gun would instantly confirm him as Scum.

If this were at all true, that you consciously concealed the true nature of your role in an attempt to trap MBL, why does the draft of your roleclaim, allegedly written to be posted yesterday, clearly state that you are a Gunsmith? You are flailing, IMO.

Continues to try to make Xantos look bad. Ignoring the obvious fact that Xantos was talking about his play that day, on day 4, when he claimed cop first to try to get MBL to fullcalim before the gunsmith claim, which is a pretty logical gambit. (Something quite similar to that is actually listed as a gambit on the wiki).

The result you got on MBL was "guilty"? Not "has a gun"?

No, not semantics. Your whole argument that you tried to "trap" MBL hinges on the fact that "has a gun" and "guilty" are

not

interchangeable, and the whole point of that post was to evaluate the exact wording of what you claim to have gotten vs. what one would expect to get. It's pretty evident that you mixed up your fake-claims just now.

vote: David Xanatos

Iecerint, please shoot Yosarian.

Tries to use the exact wording of the mod PM Xanatos got to mislynch him, even though that kind of mod error is incredibly common. Also, again, note here that he seemed to have no doubt that he was going to get Xanatos lynched here.

unvote

I still think Xanatos is flailing scum. I don't see any way his claim of ambiguity in the mod communication could be true, seeing as he settled on having received "has a gun" when called on his slip, which would have been really cut and dry if true. He's obviously squirming, changing his story every half page. And the only thing I'd consider unsportsmanlike behavior on the last page are the personal attacks against DemonHybrid.

vote: David Xanatos

He keeps his options open, but still just wants to mislynch Xantos here. Notice he never really seems to question MBL at all here.

Yos, I do NOT appreciate being called a moron for voting a player who's so obviously lying his ass off even the fucking blind can see it. A gunsmith gets "has a gun"/"doesn't have a gun", NOT "guilty"/"innocent", THAT does not make any sense. It's the whole point of the fucking role. Xanatos is asking me to believe that the mod fucked up in his role PM when the obvious solution to this mystery is that he simply forgot that he fakeclaimed gunsmith, not cop, when he made that post.

I will not accept an MBL lynch today. A DX/Yos/Hydra scumteam wins outright if they either have a roleblocker or if Xanatos has NK-immunity. And seriously, stop with the browbeating and the insults.

At this point, I had just lost my temper and called him a moron, because it was becoming so incredibly obvious to me that Xanatos was town here, and somehow CTD just wouldn't see it. He "takes offense" to that, but continues to beat the drum that "Xanatos is obviously lying". And yet, despite the fact that he's doing everyting he can here to lynch Xantos, the wording at the end of his post here is key. He "will not accept" a MBL lynch, but by listing a "DX/Hydra/Yos" scum group, he quite delibratly leaves the door open so he can lynch me if he has to.

Once the breadcrumb comes out, everything become clear, but CTD delays understanding it as long as he possibly can, to see if he can still get Xantos lynched. Finally, when it's clear MBL is going to be lynched, he busses.

Hydra, I went over this. The only way this lynch could end in a direct loss is if you yourself are scum. And you're not hammering.

unvote, vote: MBL

Vig Hydra.

Note here he says "vig hydra", probably because Icereant had already said he would. But notice that the next day, he is trying to defend hydra and lynch me instead.

Also, note that before the end of the day here, I tell him to doc-protect Xanatos, and he agrees. And yet, Xanatos is nightkilled. The scum never would have tried that if they actually thought he was going to be protecting David; that clearly points towards CTD being scum. So not only did CTD not protect Xanatos, it looks like the scum *knew* that he wasn't going to protect Xanatos, or they never would have risked killing him; one doc protection puts us on odd numbers and gives the town another lynch.

Well, this post is long enough, so just to sum up, the next day, CTD turns and does everything he can to protect Hydra and lynch me instead, despite his post at the end of the day. Everyting fits with CTD being part of a scum group with Parama, MBL, and Hydra. All of his actions, all game, match that. We have no proof at all that CTD is a doc; in fact, if really he was a doc, there's no way he would have let the confirmed cop get killed like that.

[Yosarian2]

Besides that, Hydra unvoted Xantos to vote for me, in a situation where I very well could have been lynched. The scum's only goal that day would have been to lynch town, any town; if they did that they won. It's completely clear that Hydra didn't really care if I was lynched or if Xantos was lynched, because we were both town.

Apart from Hydra, there was no push whatsoever to lynch outside of MBL/Xanatos. Not only were you not in danger of getting lynched, he couldn't have placed his vote on any other town member because they were all cleared.

False. Demon had just voted for me, after the guilty; and Toasty had just implied he thought I was scum as well. Only after that did Hydra push to lynch me.

Remember, it only would have taken 2 townies to have voted for me, and Hydra, you, and MBL could have quicklynced me. And both you and MBL were very clearly in your posts leaving the door open to vote me if you had the chance.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not going to respond to everything point by point, because your case is rather repetitive.

1. Argument: I protected 3 scum.
This is true, and I've already said my Mea Culpa with regards to Parama. MBL and Hydra played one heck of a day game and pretty much fooled everyone except their scumbuddy Yos. Of course, the interactions between Yos, who I did suspect for the majority of the game, with the rest of the scum added to my faulty reads on MBL and Hydra.

Tell me something. What are the odds that, in a 20 person game with 4 mafia, a townie defends 3 people at random, and all 3 are scum?

In this hypothetical situation, each time that person defends someone, there is a 1/5 chance that person is scum. So the odds of you doing that 3 times in a row at random are 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5, which comes to 1/125, That's less then 1% chance. And that's if your picking people completely at random; if you are a player of any skill at all (and I know you are), it should be less then that.

So, no, I don't think we should be expected to believe that you defended all 3 scum and nobody else "just because MBL and Hydra played a heck of a game".

[Yosarian2]

I won't have access if we lose power when the hurricane hits tommorow. The power company already called and warned us we might lose power for days, so...yeah. Hopefully it won't be anything, though.

[Yosarian2]

Yup, already lost power for about 4 hours today, heh. It came back about 5 minutes ago, but it's anyone's guess how long it's going to last; the hurricane is supposed to hit tommorow.

[Yosarian2]

The main fact that appears to be in contention is contextualizing CTD putting all the scum on top of his town list, right?

Yos, do you still thinking the posting situation implicates CTD from a neutral PoV?

Which posting situation; the way he defended scum all game, or the lynch or lose situation two days ago?

I think it certainly does. CTD was pushing to lynch david all day. If he was town, and anyone else who was town ever voted david, the game would have ended; and DH did vote for David. The fact that you, Toasty, and me never voted for MBL, you two were not voting and I was voting for MBL, really clears all 3 of us; since there were 3 scum alive, if any one of us were scum, then David would have been lynched.

The exact "could he have been quicklynched or not at that one moment" is really a red herring. Everyone, including CTD, thought David was about to be lynched. The idea that I would try to bus a partner in lynch or lose instead of just voting for David is really illogical.

For that matter, if I had been scum with Hydra, Hydra never would have unvoted David at all, there would be no reason for him to do so. It's not like Hydra was being attacked for his David vote by anyone; the only logical reason for him to move his vote to me is if he honestly didn't care if David was lynched or if I was lynched.

Just read through that day, keeping in mind that both MBL and Hydra were scum and that one mislynch meant a instant scum win. You can see that CTD makes perfect sense as a partner for the two of them; the three of them were working as a team all day to try to lynch either David or me. I make no sense as scum, neither do you, and neither does toasty.

[Yosarian2]

I agree that that is most plausible. However, CTD made specific claims re: why you could also be a possible scumfriend on DX day. Are you saying those claims are a priori bunk?

(I have not yet checked myself, so this is just an information-gathering expedition.)

Take a look at his argument. The facts are correct, but it actually proves the opposite of what he's saying.

The window to quicklynch was open from the time I voted Xanatos (August 9th, 10:22 AM my timezone) until DH unvoted him (August 10th, 2:52 AM).

During this time period, Yosarian made only 4 posts sitewide, between 1:11 PM and 1:37 PM, August 9th. Thor665 made 16 posts, between 5:08 PM and 8:02 PM, August 9th. Magister Ludi made 8 posts, between 6:38 PM on the 9th and 2 AM on the 10th. Yosarian simply wasn't online at the right time to facilitate the quicklynch.

To put that another way, I was on the site during the period when DH and CTD were both voting for Xanatos. If I logged on to the site, I can guarentee I at least glanced at this game. ML was also on the site during that time period. In other words, both me and ML would have had a chance to move our vote over, and neither of us did.

If there was a third scum that wasn't on the the wagon at the time, then as soon as there were two townies on the wagon, Hydra would have moved his vote over and put him at lynch -1 so the third buddy could finish it. Heck, he had said repeatedly that he thought David was scum and that MBL was town, so he wouldn't have looked weird doing that. The fact that he didn't even try pretty much proves that both of his buddies were already on the wagon at this time.

[Yosarian2]

For that matter, if I had been scum with Hydra, Hydra never would have unvoted David at all, there would be no reason for him to do so. It's not like Hydra was being attacked for his David vote by anyone; the only logical reason for him to move his vote to me is if he honestly didn't care if David was lynched or if I was lynched.

So if Hydra is scum with Yos, he never would have unvoted at all, but if he's scum with me, he suddenly would?

Sure. You were attacking David all day. If you had been town and had been attacking David the way you were, then Hydra would have kept his vote on David and cruised through to the mislynch.

He unvoted David and voted me because he thought he had a shot to mislynch me instead once DH voted me, and possibly because he wanted to undermine my defense of David and my attack of MBL. None of that makes sense if I'm scum.

To put that another way, I was on the site during the period when DH and CTD were both voting for Xanatos. If I logged on to the site, I can guarentee I at least glanced at this game. ML was also on the site during that time period. In other words, both me and ML would have had a chance to move our vote over, and neither of us did.

Bullshit, I have already established that the two of you were

not

online at the same time. I would have given links, but I didn't check if the posts in question were in made in ongoing games.

You don't have to be online at the same time to lynch someone. Is your theory really that, in lynch or lose, with a townie at lynch -2, two scum were sitting around and twiddling their thumbs until they were both on at the same time? Who in their right minds would do that?

If there was a third scum that was not on the wagon (me, toasty, or icerent, dosn't matter), then Hydra would have just put David at lynch -1 and waited for his buddy to finish it. Why wouldn't he? He had already voted for David earlier in the day, and had kept saying David was scum; no one would have thought it suspicious for him to move his vote back to David.

[Yosarian2]

Who in their right mind wouldn't? A quicklynch is a guaranteed victory, while voting hours apart holds considerable risk.

What risk? Would you have attacked Hydra if he had said "Well, it looks like Yos isn't getting lynched today, I'm going back to my other main suspect, David". Would anyone have done that? I don't think so, not considering how it would have been consistent with his play that day.

I don't suppose you're going to address the fact that I was following a strategy that would have been straight suicide if I was scum.

What, when you killed the cop instead of the vig? That's what you're talking about, right?

(shrug) Once your roleblocker was dead, either one of them being alive would have been basically equally bad for you. If you had killed the vig and left the cop alive, there's no way you could have justifed letting the cop die while you were alive and the cop was the only power role left. A cop getting multiple investiagtions would have doomed you just as certanly as a vig getting multiple kills

On the other hand, if anyone other then you was scum, they would have been taking a HUGE risk in trying to kill the cop with a living doctor.

Plus, heck; you're the scum rolecop, right? You might very well have known Icearent was out of shots. Or, more likely, you were probably just hoping he would consider you confirmed town and let you get to endgame.

Either way, killing the cop was your only chance to get to this point; if the cop had kept investigating, you certainly would have lost. All it would have taken would have been for the cop to confirm me as town, for example, or investigate you, and you would have been hosed.

[Yosarian2]

The scum rolecop theory is an old theory. People mentioned it when DX claimed having been blocked even though his slot had been replaced a million times. Replaced-a-million-times slots are more likely to be VT given that they are town, so DX was a weird block target, and weird block targets can warrant interpretation.

I'd actually forgotten about the rolecop angle re: the SK counter-claim -- that is not what I was alluding to. I think your point that it is a stretch that CTDrolecop could feel secure enough to CC is valid.

Why is that, by the way?

If he is a rolecop, then he probably knew the SK was lying. In fact, if you look at his posts, it matches the pattern of him being a scum rolecop who had investigated the SK; he was trying to lynch the SK all day, even before the doc claim.

Like I pointed out before, Killer claimed doc at 7:00 PM on Tuesday, August second. (post 1198) CTD counterclaimed in post 1217. Between Killer claiming and CTD counterclaiming, almost everyone else posted; the only people who hadn't posted were Iecerient, Shanba, and Hydra. There is very little chance of anyone else counterclaiming doc at that point. And even so, he delibratly made his counterclaim vauge, look:

Killerjester is not a doctor. This is a counterclaim.

Notice he didn't actually say "I am a doctor". I think he was leaving the door open so, if a doctor did claim, he could say "Actually, I am a cop who got a guilty on killerjester last night, that's why I'm counterclaiming."

New topic: DH's kill was a bit weird. Did he have different feelings about these players? I feel like WIFOM-y nightkills are rare in site meta these days.

Towards the end of the day, it sounded like DH was starting to have doubts about CTD possibly being scum. This was the last comment DH made in thread about CTD:

If we lynch Hydra and he flips scum Rolecop, lets think hard between Yosarian and CTD.

That's probably why CTD shot him.

[Yosarian2]

That 2nd and maybe 3rd one read slightly scummy to me. The others don't, really.

Uh; what? The second and third one are 100% true.

I was doing everything I could to convince people to not vote for Xantos and to vote MBL instead, and I managed to succeed in that, despite everything you and Hydra could do to stop me.

How is that a lie? Do you want me to make a list of quotes of things that I said to try to lynch MBL and prevent Xantos from being lynched, and compare them to the things CTD and Hydra said to try to lynch Xantos while protecting MBL?

I caught and lynched your entire scumgroup this game, CTD; you guys should really have nightkilled me earlier.

.[/quote]

And this one is not only true, it's bloody awesome. I really pushed the Parama lynch (to an extent I was sheeping on PJ with the start of that one, but I think I played a major role in getting him lynched, epecally after the replacement when other people wanted to back off and "give the replacement a chance"). I lynched MBL; I really feel like I pretty much singlehandedly through sheer force of will stopped Xantos from being lynched for long enough for the breadcrumb to come out. And I lynched Hydra yesterday, again pretty much through sheer force of will and a refusal to give up. And I've been suspicious of CTD since day 3. I really think that I personally caught any played a major role in lynching every single member of the mafia this game, and I think the scum probably would have won if they had just shot me night 1.

[Yosarian2]

There is nothing ambiguous about my counterclaim. The term "counterclaim" is pretty clearly defined, and if someone is claiming for reasons that aren't "he claimed my role", it is expected of him to elaborate immediately.

Between the point when Killer claimed doc, and when you counterclaimed, every person in the game posted except Shanba, Icearent, and Hydra. Hydra was your scumbuddy, and Icearent had already claimed doc, so there was almost no risk of you getting counterclaimed by a real doctor at that point; the only person who could even theoretically have still been a doctor was Shanba.

If we lynch Hydra and he flips scum Rolecop, lets think hard between Yosarian and CTD.

Hydra didn't flip scum rolecop though. Here's what he said previous to that:

I'm 98% sure it's Hydra, and about 70% sure on Yos. I might have said this before, but if CTD is scum, I'll congratulate him. If Toasty is scum, I'll pay him my life savings and go live as a hermit.

DH was also the only player I didn't clear in that post Yos so gleefully quoted at the beginning of to today, and therefore the only player that I was not likely to protect.

DH started the day voting me right out of the gate. I convinced him that Hydra was probably scum, I got him to unvote me, and I convinced him that a Hydra-CTD scum team was at least theoretically possible. As the day went on, he seemed to be getting more and more doubt about me being scum, I think I was slowly convincing him. He showed a willingness to listen to me, an open-mindedness, and he was open to the possibility of you being scum. It made perfect sense for you to kill him, based on what he said yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

Edit: Icearent had already claimed vig, obviously, not doc. You know what I mean.

[Yosarian2]

You investigated Killerjester, obviously. I don't actually know if you investigated Xantos or Iecerint or not. You investigating Xantos would explain the roleblock, but there are other ways to explain that (he may have dropped a power role tell that MBL picked up on or something); and you investigating Iecerint would explain you not killing him, but I would really expect you to kill the confirmed gunsmith no matter what at that point. I guess we'll find out after the game ends; either way, it doesn't really matter.

[Yosarian2]

Between the point when Killer claimed doc, and when you counterclaimed, every person in the game posted except Shanba, Icearent, and Hydra. Hydra was your scumbuddy, and Icearent had already claimed doc, so there was almost no risk of you getting counterclaimed by a real doctor at that point; the only person who could even theoretically have still been a doctor was Shanba.

So I could have been counterclaimed by Shanba. Or did I investigate him as well?

Sure, you could have been. It was a small risk you took in order to convince the town that you were "confirmed town". All gambits have risks, that's why they're called gambits. That being said, this one was defiantly a good bet on your part; if a scum can trick the town into confirming them as innocent, they usually win.

And like I said, you didn't actually say you were a doctor at the time; you worded your counterclaim in kind of a weird, slightly vague way that left a few inches of space to try to bullshit your way back out of it if Shanba did counterclaim.

DH has maintained a very clear "3-scum-left" stance from D4 onward and only allowed for you to be town if Hydra happened to be the last scum. Him "only" being 78% sure of you being scum served as a reason to vote Hydra over you and nothing more. This is clear from his posting yesterday and from what Toasty posted today.

His last post, before death, expressed doubt about you. He started the day basically 100% sure I was scum; by the time of that post, he had dropped to 78%, and by the end of the day, it sounded like he could go either way on me or you being scum. He was slowly moving in my direction all day, and it scared you. Yeah, based on what Toasty said it sounds like he went back to suspecting me overnight, but you had no way of knowing that.

And, yes, Hydra didn't flip scum rolecop, but that just means that you're the scum rolecop instead, it doesn't actually change anything.

[Yosarian2]

What can we say about whether a doc PR in the set-up is even plausible? Currently it's:

VT x 5
Alien x 1
Tracker x 1
Innocent Child x1
Gunsmith x 1
Neighbor x 2 (Assuming ToastTown)
Vig x 1

Also WHAT apparently an Alien is a jailkeeper...?!? O.o

Yeah...doc+gunsmith+innocent child+vig is pretty iffy. Gunsmith claims, doc dosn't claim, and it could be streight follow-the-cop for days. Add to that an extra confirmed innocent in the innocent child, and a 2 shot vig to shoot 2 of the unconfirmeds, and the setup would probably be pretty badly unbalanced with a doctor.

And, yeah; Alien is the new term for a jailkeeper that actually makes the guy he's targeting completly untargatable instead of just doc+roleblocker.

[Yosarian2]

Heh. The idea that giving town a jailkeeper actually makes the town LESS powerful is pretty absurd. You're really grasping, aren't you CTD?

As a mod, I can't imagine ever saying "Huh, the town seems too powerful, so let me give them another major power role and hope that the new power role screws up and roleblocks the other power roles. Ok, all better."

[Yosarian2]

Icrint is defiantly town, toasty. He has to be, or else he and Hydra would have lynched David and won.

The fact that it now turns out there were still 3 scum left out of 8 people two days ago, and that we were therefore at lynch or lose, changes everything. It actually makes it much easier to find the scum, because scum act in a very predictable way in a lynch or lose scenerio; they go for the win if they can. That didn't happen, at all, even though both DH and CTD were supporting the David lynch for most of the day, which means that they can't possibly have both been town.

[Yosarian2]

The mere fact that we are in this situation today, with one scum left at mylo, proves that the set-up was balanced.

The setup is balanced because there was not actually a doc in it. If there was a doc to keep the gunsmith alive, town would have won by now.

[Yosarian2]

Whether the set-up is balanced is less important than whether it is normative. Games in New York are tightly-regulated. I'm just not personally aware of the ramifications.

I think CTD and Yos have both questionably used questions of balance inappropriately in the last several posts.

Really, if you actually want to find scum, don't spend all your time looking at how people behave in a 3 or 4 person endgame when the town and the scum are already voting each other. Right now, I want to lynch CTD, and he wants to lynch me; you're not going to figure anything out by reading our posts today, because there's very little difference between town and scum motivations in this kind of situation.

If you want to actually find scum, the way to do it is to read back key points in the game when town and scum have different motivations and will play differently in order to achieve their win conditions. That's when there is the biggest divergence between town play and scum play; that's when you can really tell out which is which.

I've already summarized all of it to the best of my ability, icearent, but if you don't believe me, re-read it for yourself. The most key moment, the point when there is the biggest divergence between scum play and town play, are in lynch or lose moments, along with pretty much any time a mafia member is lynched. We lynched 3 scum this game, on day 2, day 4, and day 5. I would suggest you read those three days and see who you personally think was playing to the town win condition and who was playing to the scum win condition. I also think that the really key turning point of the game was day 4, when the fact that we lynched MBL instead of David turned a guaranteed scum win into what looked like an almost guaranteed town win (the only reason it wasn't was because you were out of shots, but the scum didn't know that). From a scum point of view, they would have been thinking that if they lynched David (or any town) they won; if they lynched MBL they lose.

So read that for yourself, and draw your own conclusions about who makes sense as town and who makes sense as scum. Who was trying to cause a scum victory on day 4, and who was trying to prevent it?

You're really not going to get any alignment information from me and CTD trading walls here; the information that you want is already in the thread.

[Yosarian2]

And now, I have to go to upstate New York for a family funeral. This has not been a good week.

Going to be V/LA until Sunday, and it's pretty unlikely I'll get any internet access before then. If Iecerint or Toasty have any questions left for me, I'd be glad to answer them then.

[Yosarian2]

I'm back from V/LA now, so I'm here to answer any questions or anything.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian has less connections to the scum team is the main thing I got from skimming.
I just find his posts to be very long-winded...in the way where it looks like someone trying too hard to look good.

Since when is writing long, detailed posts supposed to be a scumtell? Putting all your thoughts down on paper is generally good for the town. In any case, I usually end up writing long posts at some point in the game.

Also, having a doc in a setup like this would be ordinary. The fact that he counterclaimed a SK, and not another scum-member, seems an odd play (if we look at him as scum).

It makes sense if he's the scum role-cop who knew that killerjester was the SK; counterclaim the SK, get yourself fake-confirmed as the doctor, without sacrificing a member of your team to do it. And if you look at CTD's posts from that day, it fits; he was trying to lynch that slot from the very start of the day.

[Yosarian2]

We can no-lynch, if you want. It only matters if people really think that there's a chance that either Iecerint or Toasty are scum, though, and right now I really don't think that's at all plausable; if it's just between me and CTD, then we should just lynch today and be done with it.

If we are going to no lynch, then we need to decide RIGHT NOW who to tell CTD has to "protect", in order to limit his kill options.

[Yosarian2]

If scum claims to avoid being lynched, it is more likely to be seen as a last-ditch scum effort, particularly if the "crumbs" are this weak, and especially so if there's another investigative town role. Whereas claiming before the lynch 100% confirms you as having a power and therefore is more resistant to a potential counter-claim.

Claiming cop at that point would have been very risky, though; there might very well have been a real cop prepared to counter-claim you. A much more logical play would be trying to lynch the SK, getting rid of a threat to your scum group and making yourself look pro-town at the same time, while planing breadcrumbs that you can use if you decide to try and pull of a fake cop-claim later if necessary. You were keeping your options open, which is what I would expect a scum to do in that situation.

[Yosarian2]

(sigh) Ok, if no one else is going to say anything, and if we're really not going to lynch today:

I think Icarent is the most confirmed person in this game, and we should require CTD to protect him. If Icarent dies, then CTD was lying.

Hydra, Icarent, you need to sound off on this as well before deadline.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, that's not surprising.

Anyway, I think we've already been through all the arguments ad nauseum at this point. Let's just win this game.

Vote:CrashTextDummie

[Yosarian2]

I protected Iecerint, as discussed.

vote: Yosarian2

You no-killed, because I made sure you couldn't get away with killing Iecerint, and you knew that if it was just me, you, and Iecreint left, that he would vote for you, based on his posting yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

I think Toasty would be the harder one to convince, because he probably feels more personally responsible to DH, who wanted to lynch Yos.

(nods) Not only that, but you also said this close to the end of the day yesterday:

I think CTD misrepresented his own play D3, so I'm basically convinced he's the one, especially given Hrezs's play, the structure of his replace-in posts, and the players CTD has targeted all game.

No way was CTD going to want to be in a 3 man endgame with just me and you after you said that.

[Yosarian2]

If only I could find nice towntells in your early play.

As it stands, I think CTD is the scum, but I'd feel EXTREEEEMELY bad about it if DH went to the grave cursing you.

(shrug) I still don't get what was scummy about my early play. I wish I knew what it is about my early play that's been making people so paranoid lately, I seem to be getting attacked for my early play in most games these days; is it that I like to discuss theory a lot on day 1, or what?

Anyway, I was wrong on day 1, but since then my reads have been excellent and my vote has basically always been on one scum or another. (Para/Bowser day 2, then CTD day 3 until the fake claim, then KJ at the end of day 3, then MBL day 4, Hydra day 5, and CTD day 6 and today. People I've defended were all town as well.) Only wrong votes I've made all game were day 1 and when I briefly voted PJ on day 2 before deciding he was town and going back to Para.

You want an early towntell? How about this?:

@Yosarian: Why rush? If a replacement has a chance of chaning town's mind, let them.

Because he's scum. Why do you want to give the scum a chance to change the town's mind?

Plus, you know, 3 days until deadline.

I refused to unvote Parama/Bowser 3 days before deadline, even after the replacement, and even while being pressured to do so by Toasty, who was basically confirmed town by this point.

If lynching scum isn't a town tell, then I don't know what is.

[Yosarian2]

I damn sure hope last night is not figuring into that believe of yours, because it's such an obvious sham. It is clear as day now that Yos' "Iecerint is most confirmed, so he should be protected" spiel was a load of BS to set up his little WIFOM fairy tale today. The only thing he cared about was that, in his mind, Iecerint was more of an ally to him than Toasty.

You realize that makes no sense, right?

If I was scum, and I was that confident that "Iecerint was more of an ally of me then toasty", and you had promised to protect Icerint, then...why wouldn't I have just killed toasty?

[Yosarian2]

I agree that Yos probably should not have specified a protection target yesterday. The point of NL with 4 present is that you want someone to die.

Having someone who's 100% confirmed town die in a 4 player lynch or lose only hurts the town; letting the scum kill a confirmed innocent doesn't improve the odds at all, since the town is not going to lynch that person anyway.

[Yosarian2]

FFF.
@Yosarian: Again, a lot of your posts were bloated/full of unecessary convo.

I like big posts and I can not lie.



Seriously, I highly doubt that scum make longer or "more bloated" posts then town do, or that trying to use that as a scumtell is going to ever help you find scum. If anything, I'd think town are much more likely to share all their thoughts while scum tend to filter there posts more; if you're scum, making more conversation or whatever just gives you more chances to screw up.

[Yosarian2]

I did not consider Toasty to be the fence vote. I thought I was making great progress in convincing Iecerint whereas Toasty got more critical of me towards the end of today. I also perceived Iecerint to be more open to being reasoned with whereas Toasty is less interactive and his voting is more opaque. It didn't even cross my mind that Toasty would vote out of allegiance to DH, since he's shown himself to be an independent thinker on all days I've experienced them playing together. Being a doc is my one edge over Yos, I'd be a complete fool to just give it up by protecting the player I think is more likely to mislynch me.

Lol.

Iecerint's comment that you were probably scum was the last thing he said about you yesterday. His opinions were really pretty clear all day. The only reason you agreed to "protect" Iece was that you didn't have any possible way to justify refusing to protect Iece, not after you earlier claimed that you protected Iece over the Xantos the night after Xantos confirmed himself to be a pro-town info role and caught us a scum.

[Yosarian2]

I don't think that argument appeals to a Yos/CTD-blind party very well. Namely, CTD could have agreed to protect me without much fuss just because he's town and wanted to protect me, which is consistent with his past protects (as you voice).

Sure. Just the fact of him agreeing to "protect" you doesn't actually say anything about his alignment either way. In fact, smart move for him today would have been to just claim that he protected you because he thought you were confirmed town. That's not what he's saying, though.

His whole "I protected Iece because I wanted him to live because I thought he was on my side" defense is the problem here; that really doesn't at all fit with the reality, your opinion yesterday that he was scum was fairly obvious and went right to your final analysis of him on the last page of the thread. If anything, it looks like you got more and more convinced he was scum as the day went on, and the whole "I thought Iece was coming around" thing smells like BS. It looks to me like that whole thing is frankly a flat-out lie about your posting yesterday used in order to try to confuse the issue and to try to defend himself against the nightkill argument.

[Yosarian2]

Iecerint, are you seriously going to buy that Yos was all about "who out of our two confirmed players is MORE confirmed" when it comes to last nights protection?

I really don't get what you're trying to claim my motives are here. If you're trying to argue that I was scum who decided to not nightkill for whatever reason, then why would I have cared who you "protected"?

Your defense really isn't coherent here at all at this point, CTD.

[Yosarian2]

I don't need to know what your scum-motive was in order to point out your lack of town-motive. The "more/less confirmed" business is obvious hogwash. A pro-town player in your shoes would make it a point not to show any preference as to which player gets to be the linchpin in a 3-man endgame, because he wouldn't want to telegraph to the scum what his optimal play is.

This is silly. The reason that I made a point of saying it was that at this point I knew that scum had fake-claimed doctor, and once I pointed out that iece was the most confirmed person in the game, the scum who was pretending to be a doctor wouldn't be able to get away with killing him. You already knew, of course, that killing Iece was probably your optimal play if you could get away with it; I just made sure you wouldn't be able to get away with it.

I've acknowledged that both of you have made good points. That doesn't mean that each acknowledgement represents a 180 in terms of my overall impressions.

I really don't get what you're trying to claim my motives are here. If you're trying to argue that I was scum who decided to not nightkill for whatever reason, then why would I have cared who you "protected"?

It could be that you thought doing as much would solidify a Yos-allegiance feeling on my part.

(shrug) I doubt it. I was actually a little worried that I would piss off/offend Toasty by saying that you were more confirmed then he was, and I didn't want to do that because we need all 3 townies on the same page here in order to win, but I thought it was more important to limit CTD's night options as much as possible.

Anyway, I already said this yesterday, but there's really not going to be that much that could happen today that's going to give you much information. Town and scum just don't act that differently in a 3 or 4 man endgame when they're trying to lynch each other. If you are still undecided, I'd suggest you look back and re-read key parts of the game; especially the points when it was lynch or lose and the town avoided losing. If you're as sure as you're going to get, then let's do this; we've been going back and fourth on "CTD or Yos" for weeks now, and I think we've said just about everything useful that there is to be said.

[Yosarian2]

What would you have done if I had refused to protect Iecerint and had gone with Toasty instead, lynch me? If you were actually town, that's what you risked.

If you had refused to protect Iecerint, and then had killed Iece last night, I would have used that as evidence against you today, yes. I figured that was probably what you planned to do anyway, and if I could confront you about it during the day, make you come up with some weak justification for refusing to protect Iece while he was still alive. I don't see exactly what I "risked"; it's not like you didn't already know that Iece was a confirmed town vig, and in fact that you had already used that to try and justify the lack of protection the cop got the night you killed him, which made it even harder for you to refuse to protect him last night.

(shrug) Of course, to my surprise, you just gave in right away, perhaps because it didn't matter; perhaps you were already planning to no-kill, so you were willing to promise whatever, knowing it made no difference. I guess you can tell us in post-game after we lynch you and win.

[Yosarian2]

Above post makes no sense to me. You insist that I would have had a hard time justifying not protecting Iecerint, which has no basis in reality. You just repeat the same drivel over and over.

It has no basis in reality? Really? Ok, then. Explain to me how you could have possibly justified iecerint dying without being protected, when he's a confirmed vig, in a setup that already has a dead SK, when you supposedly considered him more confirmed then Xantos the night after Xantos caught MBL for the town.

[Yosarian2]

If I think Iecerint is more likely to mislynch me and that Toasty is more likely to help me lynch the scum, I protect the latter. Simple as that.

Lol. So, when Toasty asked you today "why did you let Iece die, when you thought he was confirmed all game", your excuse would have been "because I thought you were easier to manipulate"? Yeah, I bet that would have worked out well for you.

[Yosarian2]

And stop spouting lies. I never claimed Iecerint being more confirmed than Xanatos as the reason I protected him that night.

And now you're trying to put words in my mouth; when did I ever say that you "claimed Iece was more confirmed then Xanatos"?

Anyway, this verbal duel was entertaining for a while, but it's really a waste of time; and, worse, it's obscuring the real evidence. The fact is, you are scum because you've tried to protect scum every single time one has been in danger of being lynched, have done everything in your power to defend all of your scumbuddies the entire game, Parama, Hydra, and MBl, and specifically because did everything you could to try to achieve a scum win by trying to lynch Xantos over MBL in lynch or lose. It's also fairly obvious that my play has basically been me pushing to lynch various members of your scum team all game, and that I narrowly prevented a town loss on two seperate occasions, first when I stopped the attempt on the part of you and Hydra to push through a Xantos lynch after he got a guilty on MBL, and then second when I pushed through a Hydra lynch despite your best attempts to prevent one and get me lynched instead.

That's the facts. You can spin whatever bullshit you want about minor details and WIFOM arguments, but the important evidence, the pivotal moments that really decided over and over again if town or scum were going to win the game, all demonstrates that you were playing for a scum win condition and I was playing for a town win condition.

[Yosarian2]

Don't let him screw with your mind, with stuff like that that, iece. He's a good player, and a good actor, but you know that he is the scum. You've known it for two days now. You know that all the evidence points to that, that that's the only thing that makes sense based on everything that's happened all game.

Why isn't this game over yet? Seriously, taking some time to think things over in a lynch or lose makes sense, but this is getting absurd. We've been sitting here in a holding pattern since Augest 25. You've both read the game over and over again since then, and nothing else is going to change, not if you drag this day out for another month. Just lynch him already.

[Yosarian2]

The main basis for people thinking Yos was scum early on was that he stubbornly had weird town reads on players like Shanba (THOUGH come to think of it, he did FoS Shanba in the post where he made that off-wagon vote D3).

Day 2, I was really confident Shanba was town, I had a really strong gut read on him, and defended him pretty hard, despite being attacked for it.

Day 3, though, I had to take into account that Shanba had defended Parama on day 2, and Parama had flipped scum. (This was the same day I first went after CTD for defending Parama.) That made me doubt my initial read, and Shanba moved from "solidly town" to "suspicious" in my book. It was one of those cases where I was torn between a town gut read on him and solid evidence that he might have been connected to the scum.

[Yosarian2]

You are aware of what a guaranteed win is, right? There is no hard winning strategy provided by a gunsmith that doesn't rely on someone making the right judgement call.

A vig is not a "guaranteed win". 7 people alive going into night, 2 scum, 1 vig means town gets at most 3 kills scum kill, vig kill, 5 alive; lynch, scum kill, vig kill, game over. 2 lynches and 2 vig shots at most.) 4 kills with 8 people alive, in order to hit 2 scum, is hardly a "guarenteed win" at all, not even close.

On the other hand, one more cop investigation and we most likely would have had 4 confirmed innocents out of 6 people left alive the next day, and that is a guarenteed win. (If scum kill Iece, then town still has Xantos, Toasty, DH, and Xantos's innocent). And even if he hadn't gotten a confrimed innocent (say he had caught a scum intead), if you actually had been a doctor and had protected him, scum couldn't have killed him THAT night either, and we would have gotten ANOTHER investigation.

Scum had to kill Xantos in order to have a chance, and any real doc would have kept the cop alive that night. All of your "keeping the vig alive is a guarenteed win" stuff is just factually incorrect.

[Yosarian2]

A vig is not a "guaranteed win". 7 people alive going into night, 2 scum, 1 vig means town gets at most 3 kills scum kill, vig kill, 5 alive; lynch, scum kill, vig kill, game over. 2 lynches and 2 vig shots at most.) 4 kills with 8 people alive, in order to hit 2 scum, is hardly a "guarenteed win" at all, not even close.

I explained this before. No lynch the next day would have added another vig kill and allowed for

everyone

not named Iecerint to get lynched or vigged.

Huh? No, it wouldn't have. Assuming Iece had been an infinite shot vig, then the next day there would have been either 5 or 6 people alive, depending on how the nightkills went, and 2 scum alive. Either way, If the town had no-lynched, like you're saying, the scum had killed any townie, and the vig had fired incorrectly and shot a townie, then the scum would have won right away, that very night. There's no way that's a "guaranteed town victory".

[Yosarian2]

And yes, I acknowledge that your assumption that I have extra shots would tend to make you kill me, not kill DX.

This is a pretty significant point, actually.

Why? A vig is huge in endgame, but in that situation, with multiple confirmed innocents, a confirmed cop+doc pair would have been significantly more useful to the town then even a full vig. Like I said, even 1 more cop confirmed innocent would have guaranteed a town victory at that point.

[Yosarian2]

Huh? No, it wouldn't have. Assuming Iece had been an infinite shot vig, then the next day there would have been either 5 or 6 people alive, depending on how the nightkills went, and 2 scum alive. Either way, If the town had no-lynched, like you're saying, the scum had killed any townie, and the vig had fired incorrectly and shot a townie, then the scum would have won right away, that very night. There's no way that's a "guaranteed town victory".

If you think there would have been 2 scum alive, you are delusional. I personally called for Hydra to be vigged, which would have been one scum down.

Lol. So, it's a "guaranteed win" only if the vig got lucky and shot scum that very night?

That dosn't sound very "guaranteed". Your defense is crumbling, CTD.

[Yosarian2]

Why? A vig is huge in endgame, but in that situation, with multiple confirmed innocents, a confirmed cop+doc pair would have been significantly more useful to the town then even a full vig. Like I said, even 1 more cop confirmed innocent would have guaranteed a town victory at that point.

A hypo-GF messes with DX's half of the equation, so it's iffy either way.

Lol. So, it's a "guaranteed win" only if the vig got lucky and shot scum that very night?

Hydra is who I would've killed, so it would've let us win. You've actually stated as much before -- near the start of D6.

Oh, yeah, I was really hoping that night 5 you would kill Hydra and he would flip scum, absolutely, and when there was a no-kill I was thinking Hydra was likely bulletproof scum for that reason.

But in any case CTD is talking about "guaranteed town wins", and now what he's saying is that it's a town win only if you killed Hydra and he flipped scum; there's no way town-CTD would have been 100% sure Hydra was scum at the time (and, of course, CTD defended Hydra repeatedly over the next 2 days, so he can't even pretend that he was town who was confident Hydra was scum), so his whole "I didn't protect the cop because keeping the vig alive is a 100% guaranteed town win" just makes no sense from a town-CTD point of view.

The whole thing is an attempt on his part to do a run around a very old problem; when you're scum, if you can get off a convincing doc claim you're in like flinn, it's one of the more effective scum fake-claims, but the biggest weakness with is that a scum who's fakeclaimed doc has a hell of a time justifying it when he kills a claimed cop and the claimed cop doesn't get doc protection. That's the reason for this whole line of defense on CTD's part, but his whole "any pro-town doc would have kept the vig alive because the vig is a guarenteed town win" is simply not true.

[Yosarian2]

You are trying to argue why I wouldn't make this play as town. You are not even attempting to argue why I would make it as scum. Because as it played out, a full vig

would

have guaranteed a town win. And you are continuously ignoring the implications of a godfather, and how that possibility influenced my play.

We've already been through this any number of times, CTD.

We already know you're the scum rolecop, it's quite possible that you could have investigated Iece by this point and found out he was a two-shot vig. You may also have come to the conclusion he was limited in some way by the fact that he did not shoot every night, as Iece just pointed out. Either way, that was really your only hope; if the cop had lived another night, you almost certainly would have lost.

The way you keep bringing up "godfather" and saying "not all scum show up as guilty as a gunsmith" as an excuse is kind of bizzare. I don't think I've seen a gunsmith-proof godfather except that one weird game in, what was it, 2006, 2007, something like that, where all the godfather's kills were listed as "killed with a sword" instead of "shot". I would be pretty stunned to see anything like that in a modern normal game; is "gunsmith-proof godfather" even an allowed role in normal games these days? The weakness of gunsmith is that a number of normal pro-town roles show up as "having a gun", and Sk's usually don't show up as having a gun, but you don't really see "gunsmith immune mafia members" or whatever you're talking about.

[Yosarian2]

I'll check that post out and I just skimmed yosarian again.
Hoping to make my decision by today, but bottom line is I'm making a decision b/w gut and logic, and as such it sucks ass

I don't really get why you are having negative gut feeling about me at this point; I've done everything I could to play to the town win condition all game, and done a good job at it, despite everything I was up against. If you have any specific questions about or problems with my play, I'll be glad to respond to them.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, thank god.

Whew. Can't believe we pulled that off, despite having multiple confirmed townies and even PJ tunneling on me all freaking game.

I think this is the one of the best voting records I've ever had, heh. Only time I was wrong was on day 1.

Anyway, good game, everyone.

[Yosarian2]

I think I could've reached a surer decision faster if I'd been more knowledgeable about Normal game norms. For example, when Yos-CTD argued about the plausibility of a Godfather re: gunsmith immunity, I interpreted Yos's claim of impossibility as a scummy "assumption" on Yos's part, because I'm so used to Theme games. Someone more used to Normal norms would probably have seen it as legitimate information.

Roles which are explicitly Normal include:
Vanilla Townie, Sane Cop, Doctor, Vigilante, Roleblocker, Mason, Innocent Child, Jailkeeper, Tracker, Watcher, Gunsmith, Miller, Bodyguard, Role Cop, Doublevoter, Hider, Neighbor, Neighborizer, Jack of All Trades, Serial Killer, Mafia Goon, Mafia Traitor, Mafia Godfather, Mafia Framer, Mafia-aligned versions of above roles
Modifiers which are explicitly Normal include:
Even/Odd Night, Non-Consecutive Night, X-Shot, Bulletproof, Compulsive, Macho, Weak, Backup (with or without primary role present)

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal


"Godfather" is defined on the wiki as being either investigative-immune or nightkill-immune.

There can be a liiitttle wiggle room for mods to come up with some new roles, but for the most part, that's all that you're going to see in normal games. The entire definition of normal has been narrowed so much that it's to the point where they're basically open games these days.

[Yosarian2]

I imagine this is as much of a load off your shoulders as it is for me, eh Yos?

Congrats again, very well done!

That was an amazing fake-claim, CTD. It even had me fooled for a little while, hehe. In general, the scum team played really, really well this game, and it really felt like an uphill struggle every step of the way.

On the other hand, this was an awesome town (despite the way people kept trying to lynch me ). It's so damn rare to see town get into a 5 vs 3 endgame and then lynch right 3 times in a row; the odds of pulling that off are (3/8 * 2/6 * 1/4) = about a 3% chance.

I've got to say, stressful as it was, the endgame wasn't the scariest part of the game for me. The absolute scariest part of the game was on day 6, when DH voted for me right at the start of the day, I had a strong suspicion that the scumteam was Hydra and CTD, and we were only one vote away from a town loss. Thank you for being willing to listen to reason and unvote me and vote Hydra instead that day, DH, if you hadn't done that we would have lost the game for certain. I'll admit, I was flailing around pretty desperately to try to get you to unvote me there, hehe.

This game, with DH, Iece, Toasty, ect, is a perfect example of why one of most important pro-town virtues is being willing to change your mind. Thank you for a great game, everyone.

[Yosarian2]

By the way, I really don't think the setup was unbalanced.

Yes, the town had a lot of power, but we needed it; in order to win, we had to lynch scum

5 days in a row.

If we had a little less power on our side, it would have been hopeless.

Yeah, there were a few things that could have gone differently that would have been better for the town (Xantos's slot missing nights, Iece should probably have not made his second kill since that cost us a day, Mastin not tripping up a gambit and outing the innocent child on day 2), but all in all, town pretty much had to use all their resources just in order to make it an even fight.

[Yosarian2]

By the way, the mafia discussion is awesome, everyone should read it.

I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone.

Hahaha

[Yosarian2]

SK is generally going to shoot confirmed townies, though. The basic formula for winning as a SK is to shoot the confirmed townies at night and try to lynch the scum during the day; SK can't lynch confirmed townies during the day, and absolutely has to get rid of them all ASAP in order to have a chance of winning.

Xantos claiming guilty earlier wouldn't have been much different then what happened (1 scum lynch, cop gets nightkilled by the mafia, basically the same as what happened), other then perhaps him being more likely to be trusted.

[Yosarian2]

It can't be both town sided and scum sided. lol

Honestly, it's probably scum sided. It was only the unlikely stuff about the neighbors that kept it balanced-ish.