NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[David Xanatos]

Wait no longer.

Give me a while to catch up. Will need to take a look at the situation (Particularly the current wagons, since we're coming relatively close to the deadline..).

[David Xanatos]

Just to aid me in getting up to speed, can someone summarise the cases on Killerjester and Shanba?

[David Xanatos]

Not to sound OMGUSy, but I don't see any solid reasoning behind Shanba's vote on this slot.

You cite Ythan's Hydra argument on D1 as a reason.. but I see it as fairly reasonable. I've got admittedly little experience with Hydras, but the fact they cross-post is enough reason to want them to identify themselves.. frankly, and I've made this point before, I think hydras go rather against the concept. It's like being given a free neighbour, but only having a vote between you.. as Scum they can simply use "otherhead" arguments to throw off some of the heat for openly backtracking..

Regardless, that's beside the point..

You raise earworm's defense of Parama as another apparent "Scummy" thing. But there was no defense. He asked someone to explain a vote that had no obvious reasoning behind it.. (Even I can't see it having spent some time on the ISOs to see if I could trace it.. I'm inclined to agree it seems rather random..)

And Pine made a grand total of.. 3 posts. All three of which promised to catch up, in one way or another.. two of which were prods, one was his entrance post..

And yet.. I don't find you particularly scummy.. just someone trying to deflect suspicion away from yourself with a potential lurker lynch.

Also, I'm curious.. how did people come to the conclusion that there's an SK? There looks to be a poisoner (Although I've never seen a poisoner who takes instant action..) and a Mafia NK, given the lack of a second NK N2, why are people thinking SK over Vig?

[David Xanatos]

Fair enough, I suppose a mafia isntant poisoner likely wouldn't be multishot, so SK seems more likely..

Has anyone else claimed, apart from Ice?

[David Xanatos]

Votes are unchanged.. there's a VC on this page..

Hydra > That is so full of WIFOM to the point that, ironically, it could impersonate an opera singer.

He went after an inactive slot with reasoning that could only be described as sparse at best, as I stated before, that could easily be simply trying to deflect suspicion onto a softer target by going "look guys, lurkers!".

[David Xanatos]

Two things I'd like to raise:

Hydra > What're your reasons for voting KJ? You promised "brilliance" and "awesomeness" and have delivered... a vague poke and what looks like ADD.

Seriously. You don't get to post 4 times in 4 days and then whine there's not enough thread activity. Especially when you still haven't delivered the promised case, and repeatedly use words like "definitely" without knowing how to spell them. (Yes, it's petty, but it really, really annoys me. A typo is fine, spelling it wrong twice in one post is not.)

Mastin > I don't see your case on KJ. I literally don't see it. You haven't made one. Care to explain? You also seem to have no reasoning on Shanba. At all. You claim he's defending two people that weren't on your "god-given scum axis" of Yos, Parama, Saporo and Shanba, namely Hydra and Demon. I rather dislike the implications here.. because it reads as mild to moderate cognitive dissonance.

However, after reading further into this, most of my thoughts on Shanba seeming townish are evaporating... don't want to throw a vote down just yet, as I know for a fact I'll have missed something and I'd rather not see a quick/selfhammer.

[David Xanatos]

Also, to address KJ, voting you wouldn't be blatantly scummy by any means.

The only person you KNOW is town is yourself, therefore, a lynch on anyone other than a confirmed townie is preferable to a lynch on yourself.

[David Xanatos]

"Mastin is confirmed town"

I asked him to explain. I didn't shout "Scum". Can you please tell me how knowing he's town excuses the apparently lack of logic? :3

And 4 times in 4 days is note "active", it's not "inactive" but it's not exactly propelling the game forward.

And definitely not enough to post things like #1114.

[David Xanatos]

Iecerint, I recommend looking it up. And to me it implies lack of true thought on the votes, which doesn't help, at all. Especially not from a CT.

As a CT, you're required more than a VT to express your thoughts clearly, as you will have people more willing to follow you on the sheer value of not being scum. Apparent conflicting thought processes does not aid Town, if not explained.

And Hydra, I'll look that up in the morning. Well.. afternoon.. approaching 8am from the wrong side again. Blarg.

[David Xanatos]

Also, iece, how many shots are you claiming to have? I know you say you didn't shoot N2, but you're claiming to follow the game so little you didn't even know the deadline.. that's not pro-town in the slightest..

[David Xanatos]

Also also, Hydra, read. It's a null tell if you're being wagoned and vote for the next wagon, because it's pro-town to keep yourself alive as Town. You're the only person (apart from mod-confirmed townies) you KNOW is town. Letting yourself be lynched over someone who isn't CT is always a bad play as Town.

[David Xanatos]

KJ I'm leaning townish, but will need to look over his predecessor.

And no problem. You can simply buy me a bottle of whisky. :3

[David Xanatos]

I know you haven't, but I'm asking. At the very least it'd be useful to know if you're multi-shot or single, or if you have a dayshot.

[David Xanatos]

Because if you have a dayshot, it's typically able to be used into twilight, so if there's an obvious candidate for it, we could ask you. Dayshots are (IIRC) impossible to block unless the target is bulletproof.

And if you're multi-shot, similar situation, but we can ask you in twilight to direct a shot.

The concept isn't particularly hard to grasp..

[David Xanatos]

It would be revealed when he doesn't take the shot though. Better to know our own resources. Out of 18, I'd wager there's either 4 or 5 mafia.. with an SK, I'm inclined to say 4. That means there are still 3 out there..

Also.. I think I know why it's an instant poisoner rather than a shot from the SK... but I'll need to read up on something.

[David Xanatos]

But even if they targetted him, he'd still get another shot off. The only real question there would be whether he has 3 or more shots.

[David Xanatos]

Did you even read my last point? He'd make the second shot whether he was targetted or not. It's the 3+ that would matter, or a DK.

[David Xanatos]

Because if he's 3 shot or more, a protective role can cover him. If he's not, there's no gain in it.

[David Xanatos]

But if he's out of shots, he's a VT, so covering him is useless, exposing unclaimed PRs to an NK.

[David Xanatos]

o_0

If he claims VT, Mafia won't hit him..

Which means protecting him wouldn't matter anyway..

Which essentially means if he's out of shots, it's pro-town to tell us, so that the protectives KNOW not to protect him over a potential PR..

And if you bothered actually reading my posts, you'll have noted I distinctly noted:

However, after reading further into this, most of my thoughts on Shanba seeming townish are evaporating... don't want to throw a vote down just yet, as I know for a fact I'll have missed something and I'd rather not see a quick/selfhammer.

[David Xanatos]

And we're then asking any protectives to take a gamble on whether they'll protecting him (A potential VT) or a random who they believe is TPR. If it's confirmed that he has multiple (3+) shots, then covering him becomes, in my mind, the intelligent move. If not, he's not worth guarenteed protection, therefore affording the protectives the choice.

And the main thing was the direct contrast between Shanba's first post, attempting to call someone out for "parking his vote", and then going on to park his vote on saporo, then do the same on Yos, and then again on Pine... at first I read him as Town trying to start a policy lynch wagon, but when I noticed that pattern, it went straight out the window..

[David Xanatos]

And to direct answer the question I've already answered (If you bothered to read my quote), I think he's scummy, but I don't want to see a quickhammer/selfhammer before we can get a little more information. He's not going anywhere, so rushing to go to Night phase doesn't help us.

[David Xanatos]

Because if he's Scum, as I believe he is, it's in his interests to restrict the information Town can acquire before the Night phase. Scum are the informed minority, the less information Town can put together, the easier it is for the Scum team.

[David Xanatos]

Can you point out a flaw in my logic?

If you can direct me to a reason for keeping it under wraps, that isn't easily shown to be either null or actually negative to us, I may reconsider, but considering the information we have, I am of the firm belief that it would help Town to know details.

[David Xanatos]

Town, by and large, do not care how many more shots I have. They probably trust me to make my shots in a reasonably pro-town fashion, unless they just think I'm a really awful player. Protective roles at least know I'm town, which is fair enough basis for protection on its own regardless of shots I may have.

Scum want to know how many shots I have to determine whether I'm good for killing (e.g. because, even though I'm pretty much confirmed town and a decent shot anyway, I'm also relatively inactive and hence perhaps a delayed kill might be OK, etc).

So the reason is that the benefits are marginal or absent (depending upon how much you think I am incompetent) and the costs are marginal to high.

The flaw in your logic (in the sense, why I think it's scummy beyond the circumstantial stuff in the previous post) is that talking points like town needing to "gain information" on the grounds that scum are the "informed majority" are used out-of-context (e.g. scum aren't informed vis a vie the details of my ability).

Firstly, just because the majority haven't asked, doesn't mean they don't want to know. It simply may not have occured to them.

Secondly, protective roles /don't/ know you're Town. You're not confirmed. You're being given the benefit of the doubt, there's a difference. And no, frankly, if I were protective (not confirming or denying), I'd rather protect a random person I thought was Town PR than a debatable Vig, on the chance of protecting an investigative.

And the benefits are not marginal. A protective could protect the confirmed Mastin, or go for a random, hoping to strike lucky, over the unconfirmed you. As an additional, the costs are not high. If you have a third shot, speak now, if not, then you don't need protection, as you can take a second shot tonight regardless of whether you're targetted or not, and if you don't have a shot, we're not covering a VT. See my point RE: Chance of protection of a town PR, or guarenteed protection of the CT, over an unconfirmed vig/VT.

Scum may not be informed as to the details of your ability, but they will be aware that should you hold back the information, there's a moderate chance you'd be protected, and therefore a higher chance of sniping out a TPR. We've already lost 2 PRs and 4 Townies, I'd say that minus the ~3 scum I'd estimate there to be, and the SK (If we assume NK immune), and minus Mastin (CT), let's even say minus you (VT/Vig if not scum), there's now 5 reasonable targets. I reckon the odds of randomly hitting TPR in that are quite high. So yes, they will be pretty damn informed, if they're not inactive.

[David Xanatos]

Just a minor footnote. If we assume the two neighbours are Town, I'd say it's unlikely they'll have a second PR, therefore Scum shots to hit a PR are literally down to a pool of 3, 4 if we happen to have a small scumteam.

[David Xanatos]

Minor point. Not against you but.. KJ says if Ice targets who he thinks is the SK, and the target lives through the night, they should be lynched.

I'm sorry. Massive warning lights went off for me there. I've already made the point, there's no confirmation on whether Ice has another shot or not, and if Ice happens to have been an Assassin or similar (Which would actually make a little sense in a game with a BP SK.. a single shot to use that can eliminate them, if not, having to resort to the lynch.. but again that's speculation), then we're handing Scum a free lynch the next day, assuming we follow KJ's plan.

And hi CTD.

[David Xanatos]

CTX > Way to set my email alerter off. >_<

And I didn't ignore it. I'm still going through everything myself, hence my current lack of a vote on Shanba. I just noticed something at the end that was somewhat relevant to my argument prior to you coming back.

[David Xanatos]

VOTE: Shanba

Good enough for me. And since someone might try to be smart and do it.. hammering KJ after that claim marks you as Scum. We do

not

lynch non-counterclaimed Docs.

[David Xanatos]

Italics fail.

[David Xanatos]

I find MBL's reads rather interesting..

I'll need to think on this.. see you all in the morning.

And as a precaution..

UNVOTE: Shanba

[David Xanatos]

Yos, you willing to hammer Shanba?

[David Xanatos]

After a claim of course. Not suggesting a quickhammer.

[David Xanatos]

There'll be more pressure on CTD with a Shanba flip. He claimed Shanba was scummy repeatedly, and even goes so far as to say he fits as a Parama buddy, then drops everything in favour of a case on KJ built, from what I can see, entirely on the fact KJ speculated about the SK. Coupled with saying the Shanba wagon "has merit", and apparently believing that a Doc claim should be ignored over moving to your second suspect.. I don't like it either, but we'll know a lot more from a flip.

[David Xanatos]

CTD, claim your protects.

[David Xanatos]

Mafia have a Roleblocker, and they Roleblocked me last night.

Which raises serious questions about CTD and Iece.

I also have a guilty read on MBL from a previous night. (N1 to be exact. N2 Pine didn't submit an action.. I'll never understand inactive PRs..)

There are either 2 or 3 Scum left, I believe. Out of 18, I'd say there'd be 4.. roughly 20%, but the fact there was an SK tips the balance a little, and I'd be inclined to think 3+SK.

VOTE: MrBuddyLee

1. DemonHybrid
2. David Xanatos
4. Iecerint
8. CrashTextDummie
11. MrBuddyLee
13. Yosarian2
16. Hydra (Thor655 + Magister Ludi)
18. ToastyToast

[David Xanatos]

Why would I claim Cop when I only had one read?

Can you say PAINTING A GIANT TARGET much?

I was hoping for a second read last night, but I was RBed.

[David Xanatos]

What schpiel? That was my first post today, and I did say I had a guilty read. I was prepared to claim yesterday before KJ was counterclaimed, and I have a saved draft post, if you'd like me to post it. It was the KJ counterclaim that made me hold back and see what the night brought.

[David Xanatos]

And, might I ask, what exactly is "elaborate"?

N1: MBL Guilty
N2: Pine inactive.
N3: RBed.

That's far from "elaborate".

[David Xanatos]

I was RBed. Why was I RBed when there's an apparent claimed Doc and Vig.

If Scum have access to an RB, why didn't they RB the "Doc" and shoot the "Vig"?

Toast > As I said. Was about to claim until I saw KJ being counterclaimed. Didn't want to expose myself to an insta-NK.. wanted to see if I could get a second read.

[David Xanatos]

And Iece, Ythan never claimed to be bored. Read his post. Misrepresenting much?

[David Xanatos]

I'm gonna duck out. Heavy workload and I only intended to be playing a single newbie at this time.

[David Xanatos]

I can't see Scum having a RC and RB though.. and I can't justify JK because Alien is already down..

In honesty, I'm not even sure about the Doc claim, because of the Alien claim.. but it's more feasible than a JK.

[David Xanatos]

Claim. Right now.

You want to accuse me of lying, claim your role, and I'll reveal full details of my own.

[David Xanatos]

To everyone else:

If I were Scum, why would I do this? What motive would I have to fake-claim right now, openly, when it's most likely not Mylo (We are 8, if there were 4 scum originally, there are now 3, barring 2 shots in the night, there would be 6, and I'd be lynched tomorrow instantly. If there were 3 scum originally, there are now 2, which would mean it would become either 2/7 in the night, becoming 2/6 after the shot, or 2/5 if there are two shots, then immediately 1/5 or 1/4 because I'd be insta-lynched.)

What gain would there possibly be here for me?

[David Xanatos]

Hydra. As I said, I was about to claim when KJ was counter-claimed.

Even if there were 4 scum, this isn't LyLo, or even MyLo, unless there are 2 shots in the night. Do the fecking math.

And I pointed out MBL yesterday too. Slight breadcrumbing before I went to bed in case of a lynch during the night.

You want full details?

Fine. I'll post the entire draft from yesterday. Give me a second.

[David Xanatos]

With this new information.. I feel justified in this.

MBL has a gun.

I am Town Gunsmith. I investigated MBL night one, and noone night two. (Inactive PRs.. I will never understand them. ¬_¬)

As Gunsmith, I get a Guilty verdict on anyone who owns a gun.

Take note Mr Serial Killer. I am not able to determine your role or alignment.

MBL investigated as guilty. So yeah. KJ, I'd request your protection tonight if you will.


Those Avoiding Fat Ladies (Still Alive) (11/18)

1. DemonHybrid - Neighbour. Likely Town.
2. David Xanatos - Town Gunsmith.
3. mastin2 - Confirmed Townie.
4. Iecerint - Town Vig claim.
5. killerjester - Town Doc claim.
8. CrashTextDummie - Unknown.
11. MrBuddyLee - Owns a Gun. Likely Scum.
13. Yosarian2 - Unknown.
14. Shanba - Unknown.
16. Hydra - Unknown.
18. ToastyToast - Neighbour. Likely Town too.. barring bastardmoddery.

We have 4 unknowns. 6 if you include the Neighbours.

If we assume 2 living Scum (Reasonable estimation I think after MBL, assuming 20% scum) then we have a 50-50 chance of hitting Scum, if excluding the neighbours.

8. CrashTextDummie - Unknown.
13. Yosarian2 - Unknown.
14. Shanba - Unknown.
16. Hydra - Unknown.

That means only 2/4 of these is likely Town, barring fakeclaims.. (Most likely fake-claim would be Ice, in my opinion. Assassin could pass for Vig.. if we have a Doc, there could easily be an assassin or RB, probably not both. Either that or one of the neighbours could be Scum too.)

My head says we should lynch MBL today, on the chance he's Scum PR, Ice, Vig someone on that list, but call it before you do. If you have a dayshot, vig MBL, and we'll lynch Shanba, since most people seem to have Scum reads on her anyway.

[David Xanatos]

Careless? By NOT exposing myself after there was a Doc counterclaim?

If I had revealed myself, I'd have been NKed almost instantly I presume, and Town would have had to decide whether to lynch KJ for his counter-claimed Doc or MBL for my guilty read. This way, I got a second shot at a read, and I targetted Yos. I've all but dismissed the possibility of a JK, although if there is one, now's the time to claim, and I doubt there's a bus driver. So we're looking at either Scrambler, or Roleblocker.

[David Xanatos]

Toast, I wasn't suggesting either of you were second scum. I was saying that, barring bastardmoddery, the chance of 2/3 of the neighbours being Scum was slim.

And as I also said, that was a saved Draft I had from before KJ was counterclaimed.

Link removed by mod. Warning issued: no screenshots, please.

1) No, we had a tracker, an Alien, and we have a CLAIMED Doc, Vig and Gunsmith.

2) No, which is why I was demanding a claim from MBL. That's up **** creek now.

3) Role I've came across once. Messes with all night actions from and to a target, can roleblock and redirect, randomly or mod's discretion. Typically 1-2 shot, but it did cross my mind.

[David Xanatos]

To expand on 2:

That's why I also made a comment about realising why the SK used poison. MBL didn't counterclaim Vig, so I'm 97.5% sure he's Scum.

[David Xanatos]

At that point I was considering CTD as your partner. In his ISO he states:

"MBL remains a strong town-read. Posts like this or this fit the town-meta I have of him to a tee. Observant, inquisitive, level-headed. I'll buy a hat and eat it if he's scum."

And I found your reads interesting as apparently you considered Toasty, Demon and Hydra far scummier than Iece, a claimed Vig, who you apparently considered just short of the CONFIRMED town.

And you keep referring to the fact I "didn't claim a result" on you before. Guess what, that makes me one giant fucking target. Common sense. Use it. Why put myself in the spotlight when there was someone I was heavily suspicious of (Shanba) close to a lynch over someone I didn't consider Scummy (KJ)? You'd rather I exposed you yesterday so you knew exactly who to target in the night?

[David Xanatos]

In addition, what you claim as an "attack" on Hydra was far from an attack. It was a prod, to get his reasons.

If I was Scum as you claim, why would I defend KJ, who was a heavy suspect for many people, in favour of Shanba? Why would I unvote Shanba to stop a potential quicklynch, and why would I hold back, waiting for CTD's protection details that may be able to be confirmed by Iece (Given he apparently didn't shoot N2, or was blocked, possibly by CTD)?

[David Xanatos]

Oh, and since you appear to have your head shoved firmly up your arse. Those "unknown"s refer to ROLE. Good attempt at misrepresenting them as reads though.

[David Xanatos]

How exactly does Yos flipping prove or disprove my being roleblocked? I don't follow.

[David Xanatos]

1. DemonHybrid - Neighbour. Likely Town.
2. David Xanatos - Town Gunsmith.
3. mastin2 - Confirmed Townie.
4. Iecerint - Town Vig claim.
8. CrashTextDummie - Town Doc Claim.
11. MrBuddyLee - Guilty read. Owns a gun. Unless he's counter-claiming Vig, he's Scum.
13. Yosarian2 - Unknown.
16. Hydra - Unknown.
18. ToastyToast - Neighbour.

You were confirmed to have went to him.. until last night I would have said Assassin was a possibility..

Who did you shoot last night?

[David Xanatos]

1. DemonHybrid - Neighbour. Likely Town.
2. David Xanatos - Town Gunsmith..
4. Iecerint - Town Vig claim.
8. CrashTextDummie - Town Doc Claim.
11. MrBuddyLee - Guilty read. Owns a gun. Unless he's counter-claiming Vig, he's Scum.
13. Yosarian2 - Unknown.
16. Hydra - Unknown.
18. ToastyToast - Neighbour.

Forgot to remove Mastin2..

[David Xanatos]

From that list, the three who haven't claimed already are MBL, who's guilty, Yos, and Hydra.

If I had to pick a suspect role, I'd have said CTD in honesty, but the counter-claim isn't something I'd expect from Scum.

PEdit: Don't know. I suppose I did rather heavily fish to see if Iece had shots remaining, with the intention of outing myself if he didn't, because I could then have got protection but..

The only thing I can really point to is the fact that I realised my role couldn't pick up the SK, and noted it in thread.. ISO 14.

PEdit2:

It's a point actually.. Alien, Tracker, Gunsmith, Doc, Vig.. an RC and RB would be an ideal counter, and it would explain the apparent lack of a killing-role.

[David Xanatos]

Iece> Just in case you missed it.. did you shoot last night?

[David Xanatos]

Okay. That's got rid of my concerns about you being an Assassin or similar.. with an RB and possibly an RC, a multi-shot killing role would be too much..

1. DemonHybrid - Neighbour. Likely Town.
2. David Xanatos - Town Gunsmith.
4. Iecerint - Town Vig.
8. CrashTextDummie - Town Doc Claim.
11. MrBuddyLee - Guilty read. Owns a gun. Scum.
13. Yosarian2 - Unknown.
16. Hydra - Unknown.
18. ToastyToast - Neighbour.

[David Xanatos]

Because I considered Shanba quite dodgy.. and I didn't want to give him/her an "out" by way of "OMG GUILTY READ". I've made that mistake once before. My plan was, in a nutshell, to see how the Shanba thing went, and if it lost steam, start poking around MBL to see if he would claim, or if a wagon could be started on him without revealing myself.. when CTD counterclaimed though, the KJ lynch just went hyper, which turned out to be a good thing, but it did leave me not wanting to claim for the same reason as before, with Shanba.. I had hoped to get a second read, but the RB made that impossible.

[David Xanatos]

And Yos, a common school of thought with Cops and similar roles is to investigate someone you feel is intelligent and good at reading people, as when they're confirmed, it's much more of an asset to Town than if you investigate the VI and he's Town.. may or may not have been earworm's logic, but that's my general stance.

And Yos, people claim at L-1 or L-2. That's what I was waiting for.

[David Xanatos]

And to address the CTD thing, I know, that's why I mentioned the counter-claim thing, and the "I'd have" is past-tense.

[David Xanatos]

Because I've been a Flavour Cop before, and my first guilty back then turned out to be Town Butcher. VT, but with a flavour-miller element.. my role detected knives.

And as I said, if the Shanba thing had died down, or he claimed, I was going to try and start a wagon on him. In hindsight I should have done what I started today, claimed full-Cop and got a claim, then if it was anything other than something like "Townie with a Gun", lynch.

And at that point, Ice wasn't 100% in my eyes, as I said, I had suspicions of Assassin. :/

[David Xanatos]

I still don't understand why lynching you would apparently prove or disprove that I was roleblocked..

[David Xanatos]

Even MBL's apparent claim it's MyLo doesn't match up.

It makes one major assumption, that 4/18 were/are Scum, AND there was an additional SK. That's a couple points under 30% of the players being in non-Town roles. That seems excessive to me.

Whereas 3/18 + SK would come out as just under 22.5%, and would give a feasible situation of Neighbour/RoleCop/RoleBlocker. No assassin, but a powerful investigative and the role to deal with them when discovered. With an SK around, an RC makes sense too.

[David Xanatos]

"Then, going into the night, Iecerint will vig MrBuddyLee and DavidX can investigate someone else, preferably one of the neighbors. MrBuddyLee will die, and if he doesn't, that means DavidX was telling the truth about a roleblocker and we lynch BuddyLee for the win. "

This hinges entirely on Ice having another Vig shot.

Ice, do you have another Vig shot?

[David Xanatos]

Just as a minor thing.

I have a guilty on MBL. He may be the Roleblocker. Surely it makes sense to lynch him, to prevent him using his power at night? If he is, that means he could block his own vig, or block an investigation..

[David Xanatos]

And actually following on from that point.. if he isn't the RB, and is instead the RC, or a goon, we still narrow the pool. If there are only 2 scum left and he isn't the RB, then the RB has to choose between the kill and a Roleblock.. if there are 3 left, and he's a goon, they'd have to choose 2 of (RC, RB, NK)..

It doesn't make sense in this case to try a Vig attempt, as it means he/they can interfere with the night actions for sure.

[David Xanatos]

On that note, think about the options.

MBL hasn't claimed anything, and given the situation, if he was a PR, I'm fairly sure he'd have claimed by this point to try and swing favour his way.

You can either lynch me, and when I flip Gunsmith, give Scum a free NK/RB, or you can lynch MBL, removing either the RB or the NK, and giving me another chance to get an investigate on either Yos or Hydra.

[David Xanatos]

Ok, I understand that people are hesitant to lynch claimed power roles, but this one is a pretty obvious fakeclaim and I intend to prove it best I can. There is a chance but not a guarantee that we lose immediately if I'm lynched. Scum wouldn't have done this unless the upside was pretty significant.

I think the best I can do in this situation is to lay out the complete set of facts you have to believe in order to believe Xanatos. If you find them plausible, there's nothing much more I can do. I don't think they're plausible. Lynch Xanatos, who I guarantee is lying scum.

1) Xanatos claims that earworm investigated me N1.

Spoiler:

earworm posted this about me right before his last post of the day:

godammit you are town aren't you?

and he claimed to strongly suspect other players. He was scum kissing up to me, not town gunsmith thinking that MBL was a good investigation choice.

I've already explained this.

Spoiler: Here

And Yos, a common school of thought with Cops and similar roles is to investigate someone you feel is intelligent and good at reading people, as when they're confirmed, it's much more of an asset to Town than if you investigate the VI and he's Town.. may or may not have been earworm's logic, but that's my general stance.

2) Xanatos claims that earworm and Pine were aware of a guilty on me D2 but said nothing and breadcrumbed nothing.

Spoiler:

Pine posted three times on D2. July 11th, 15th and 21st. He did not mention a guilty. For cross-reference, here is how Pine plays it as cop when he has a real guilty result:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p3135636

Short day, folks. I'm the

cop

(that breadcrumb was legit) and I have a guilty on Imaginality.

Vote: Imaginality

Pine was NOT sitting on a guilty result July 11th-21st. He was lurking scum who was actively making 77 posts in other games on this site between July 11th and July 21st.

Are you suggesting that in every game he flaked out of during that time, he was "lurking scum"? It wasn't just this game.. from a quick glance I had it appears he only bothered actually playing marathons.

3) Xanatos claims that he entered the game on July 30th and didn't find either of the competing wagons scummy, but let them happen instead of announcing his "guilty":

Spoiler:

Will need to take a look at the situation (Particularly the current wagons, since we're coming relatively close to the deadline..).

I don't find you particularly scummy

KJ I'm leaning townish

He did not act, because he was satisfied that the competing lynches were not scumpartners of his. Further evidence that he did not have a guilty.

You neglect to note I later rescinded my "not particularly scummy" read on Shanba, and indeed actually voted for her.. then actively discouraged the lynch on KJ when he claimed Doc. That's far from "not acting". As I've stated

numerous

times, there was no advantage whatsoever in revealing when someone I did suspect of being Scum (Shanba) was being run up the pole. That would simply have put me on the target list at Night, without giving Town any tangible gain. My way, I had a chance at a second read.

4) Xanatos claims he entered the game on July 30th and did not breadcrumb a guilty on MBL. Nor did Pine in the ten days he was posting in this game.

Spoiler:

And I pointed out MBL yesterday too. Slight breadcrumbing before I went to bed in case of a lynch during the night.

This is all Xanatos said about me D3.

I find MBL's reads rather interesting..

That is not a breadcrumb of a guilty, particularly after Xanatos went after five other players over the course of the day.

Him calling that a breadcrumb is a desperation retrofit, as apparently scum decided I was their best target for today but didn't think they stood a chance of lynching me without the fakeclaim. I think it's obvious that they didn't come up with the fakeclaim idea until overnight, or they would have had Xanatos plant the seeds better.

Were you expecting a fucking fourth-of-july parade saying "THIS PERSON MIGHT BE GUILTY? POSSIBLY? MAYBE?".

I don't deal in halves. I had intended to go into an ISO of you, but decided against it. And here's something for people to think about.

Given the number of people who had MBL down as Town, why in the seven hells would Scum decide to fake-claim a guilty on him? It would draw precisely what it's drawn here, for zero gain.

Common sense would indicate to go after someone more moderate, or hold off and wait to see how the ebb and flow of the day went.

5) Xanatos didn't claim his "guilty" once learning of a doctor.

Spoiler:

We do

not

lynch non-counterclaimed Docs.

No way a cop with a guilty would play it like this, with a vig, scum and SK all taking shots at night. You say "I have a guilty on xxx. Doctor, protect me. I will have another result for you all tomorrow."

Ergo, he is not a cop with a guilty.

I've already explained this too.

Spoiler:

I find MBL's reads rather interesting..

I'll need to think on this.. see you all in the morning.

And as a precaution..

UNVOTE: Shanba

During that time I was drafting the post I've already posted here, not sure whether to reveal or not, due to the nature of KJ's claim. When CTD counterclaimed, there was no sense revealing because it was going to be KJ anyway, and revealing would simply have made me a target while forcing Town to choose between a Guilty read and a Doc counterclaim. Common sense here.. why expose myself to get protection, when there's already a claimed Vig and a claimed Doc who'd draw fire? My chance of surviving were moderate to high anyway, and increased further when KJ flipped SK. (The last part was beyond the point of my own ability to reveal anyway, but it did increase the odds regardless.)

Spoiler: Big Picture:

earworm cast suspicion on town/likely town/town D1 and did not mention Yosarian at all. Actually, Yosarian is the only player earworm did not mention at all.

VOTE: Sensfan

FOS Iecerint

VOTE: AGM

Pine lurked D2.

Xanatos said a lot D3 without saying much, and focused attention on CTD and Shanba, who are likely town and town. He didn't talk about Yos, his most likely scumpartner, at all.

He is not a cop. He is lying scum. Please lynch him.

[David Xanatos]

Quote fail.

And to respond to the so called "Big Picture".

Earworm went inactive at the end of D1. He obviously sent in his night action then flaked. He didn't have the result D1.
Pine flaked from many games in that time period.
And I said a lot D3 because I wanted to see how things went.. making too much of a splash would have made me a prime Night target, as I said.

[David Xanatos]

You're trying to claim that if I were scum, we'd have "planned" it.

Him calling that a breadcrumb is a desperation retrofit, as apparently scum decided I was their best target for today but didn't think they stood a chance of lynching me without the fakeclaim. I think it's obvious that they didn't come up with the fakeclaim idea until overnight, or they would have had Xanatos plant the seeds better.

Let's dismantle this.

Why would you live so long if Scum considered you a threat? There's a Vig, who'd be attracting a hidden Doc's protection. There was a Tracker, who's only a threat if they target you, and given they have a Roleblocker, could have been held off on. You on the other hand, have been consistently attracting Town reads. You didn't claim PR, but you didn't claim VT either. Mastin was confirmed VT. If you're trying to claim that you'd be the "best lynch", you're insane. Even a Scum team drawn to simply the RB and his partner(s) would be more liable to try and bus the least valuable, to buy Town cred for the others, and shoot you. Why would Scum go all-out on a Guilty result. Not as a Cop, but as a Gunsmith. Gunsmiths have a failure rate (Won't detect SK, will detect flavour-miller), and the role itself would attract some suspicion simply for the fact that it's unusual.

What possible motive would Scum have to keep you alive with the Tracker gone? The Doc would be covering the Vig, the CT is only a threat as far as his reads are right and he can rally people around.. but people can lose objectivity when they're CT, because they no longer need to concern themselves with their own defense. And in addition, any PRs like Watcher would be watching the Doc.. not you.

PEdit: Hydra, you or Yos can be lynched tomorrow though.

One of you knows who the other Scum is, but we're in the Evil Twin situation right now. We don't know which one.. so better to eliminate the Guilty read first, and I scan you or Yos tonight. If MBL is the RB, there's no way I can be interfered with.. if the Doc protects me tonight, and the RB isn't MBL, then they have to pick between shooting or RBing me.. it becomes a WIFOM situation for the Scum.. shoot GS, Block GS, or shoot Doc.

[David Xanatos]

TOWN:
Hydra
LIKELY TOWN: CTD
MBL
Pine

SK:
Demon

SCUM:
KJ/Sapo
Yos2
Shanba

1. DemonHybrid
2. Pine** earworm* Ythan
5. killerjester saporovirus
8. CrashTextDummie Hrezs*
11. MrBuddyLee***
13. Yosarian2
14. Shanba***

ACTUAL LYNCH POOL:

1. DemonHybrid
5. killerjester saporovirus
13. Yosarian2
14. Shanba***

Post 1024 and 1026 from Mastin. As I said above, a CT is only a threat as far as their reads are correct. In this instance, he was way, way off. 1/3 of his "Scum" turned out to be Town, one was the SK, granted, and the other is unknown. So 2/3 of his Scum reads were wrong. (He did declare Demon the SK, so you can't even argue he lumped the SK in there.)

He has Hydra as Town, not even "likely", and you as Town. Ergo, way off the mark on you, and Hydra's far from confirmed.

[David Xanatos]

why in the seven hells would Scum decide to fake-claim a guilty on MBL? It would draw precisely what it's drawn here, for zero gain.

Who else did you consider fakeclaiming a guilty on? Probably not your scumpartner(s). (1/(2)) Probably not the vig (3) or the doctor (4). Probably not the neighbors (5/6). Probably not yourself (7).

8 - 7 = MBL


As to why:

Given the number of people who had MBL down as Town

Yeah, I think that explains it.

Neighbours are unconfirmed, a guilty claim on one of them would be more likely than you, hell, you may even be able to get a bandwagon on one without a guilty claim. CTD's claim is unconfirmed, so a desperate Scum team would take a shot at that, since no shots had been blocked. The Vig could be represented as a Scum Vig. If we assume one partner, that would mean 1 more of either Yos or Hydra on that list. And as I said, a desperate Scum team could simply bus one of their own, and what better way than "I have a guilty read!"? That would more or less cement you as a Cop.

[David Xanatos]

In honesty, I believed you were simply professing that you didn't believe it. I thought counterclaim initially but the wording seemed more "he's talking out his arse" than "He's lying because I'm the doc."

And CTD, there's at least a RB, there are signs of a RC (how'd they know about the Alien? Seems quite a lucky shot N1..).. those would give Scum a pretty good balance against the TPRs..

[David Xanatos]

Sidetracked in honesty. I wasn't sure what to make of you after you'd called BS on the claim without countering. When you countered, I decided not to, for previously stated reasons.

And DH, what exactly don't you like there? We've already discussed the possibility of an RC. In my experience, RCs tend to have their action during the day phase, rather than night. Therefore, if there is a RC, they'd know about it N1 if he got lucky and targetted.

Although, saying that, I now note that it's Magna. He's quite well known.. it could easily have been a standard shot at the most valuable Townie. In honesty I hadn't really noted who it was prior to this, I just noted that the Alien was shot N1..

And CTD, because that didn't occur to me. Hindsight is 20/20 I suppose. My opinion was, if I claimed, I'd be exposed to either being shot, if both Doc claims were phony (I didn't like how solid you were on MBL.. I recall you saying something about buying a hat to eat it.. well, I hope you have a little spare cash.) it exposed me massively.. Quite a flawed thought, but that was my stance at the time.. I went with the route that I felt gave me the best odds of survival.

I'm human, and I had just replaced in. I cocked up and made an error of judgement, it happens.

Think it through though. Why would I come in and claim a guilty in a game with so many PRs? Why would I claim a Flavour Cop role? Why would I claim to have been RBed when there was a possibility of a Watcher, or worse, someone else comes out as having been RBed?

[David Xanatos]

Right. I have an exam in 7.5 hours.. gonna go to bed in 8 minutes. If you have anything else to ask, ask quickly, because I'll be gone until tomorrow afternoon. Not a long time, I know, but I prefer addressing points as they arise.

[David Xanatos]

Oh, and I know this is off topic, but wish me luck. I may need it. >.>

[David Xanatos]

Going to bed now.. as I said, won't be back for at least 12 hours. Wish me luck.

[David Xanatos]

I look forward to the backpedaling when I flip Gunsmith and you all try to say you didn't

really

doubt me, but you wanted to avoid X, Y and Z.

[David Xanatos]

And for the record, if you lynch me, you're supporting an unclaimed over a claimed Cop variant. Therefore, you're giving up a chance at investigating at Night who out of Hydra/Yos is scum.

I'm basically done here. I've said all there is to say, if you won't listen, the loss is on your own heads.

[David Xanatos]

How does Gunsmith "fit my predecessors play"?

[David Xanatos]

I'm not claiming perfect play, indeed, I've already openly admitted to missing that situation of 2 claimed Docs being the perfect point to claim, but I'm doing what I can.

I've always been told that it's bad play for a Cop/Variant to claim with only 1-2 results. I only had one when I replaced in. I still only had one today, but the potential pool was getting light, and the fact there was an RB meant that there was a degree of urgency attached.

If I had planned this, why would I be struggling to find answers? If this was a ploy, surely most of these would have been worked out overnight, yes?

At the very least, you should demand a claim from MBL at this point.

[David Xanatos]

You can spice your wine however you like, doesn't change the fact you're ignoring what's in front of you.

RC wasn't even mentioned until Toast brought it up (You know, your neighbour.). It makes sense though given the situation.

I'm going to say it again. If you lynch MBL, when he flips Scum, I get another investigate. If he's the RB, I get an investigate that cannot be interfered with.

Suppose for a second I'm Scum, you lynch him, you've got a slim chance of him being Town Power, but ask yourself, if he's TP, why hasn't he claimed to counter my accusation? So you're then looking at a VT lynch at realistic worst. I then get vigged or lynched, pretty much by default.

What possible gain is there for me in this? Town ends up with 4-5 remaining, and I'd have thrown myself to the wolves for one kill. Why would I fake a Gun read on someone who people believe is Town, exposing myself to so much fire, rather than a lesser Town, or bussing a partner for Cop credit? For that matter, why Gunsmith over Cop? I already noted the significance of the SK using poison.. why would I have done that, or even been curious, as any other role? Regardless, pretty much every other Town is confirmed (except Hydra and Yos), so the chances of Scum pulling back from that are slim to nil.

If you lynch me right now, when I flip Gunsmith, you've lynched Town Power, and if you have any sense at all, whatsoever, you immediately lynch/vig MBL.. but in doing so, you give him a chance to RB again, if he's the RB.

[David Xanatos]

You

do

realise that Pine lurked out of many, many games, not just this one?

I can think of three offhand, and I'm sure there are more. All he actually played in was, as I recall, one normal and a marathon..

[David Xanatos]

Hell, lurking isn't the word. More accurate would be "flaked entirely".

And as I've already explained, the reason I claimed Cop initially was I was hoping to push him to claim, which would guarentee my read. As I also said, I've had experience with flavour-millers.. but apparently those aren't allowed in these games, so my caution there was unneeded.

[David Xanatos]

Was Mastin mod-confirmed N2?

[David Xanatos]

Just checked, yeah, he was.

As I said, a CT is only a threat as far as their reads are correct, and as I've shown, with MBL that high on his "Town" reads, he would be no threat there. If we assume Hydra as the second (I'm not accusing you, yet.) then it reinforces the point.

Speculation about RC below

If the RC got lucky, they may have known who the Doc was N2.. meaning they could RB him and shoot Mera.. it's speculation, as I said, but CTD is quite intelligent.. following the pattern on scanning the most threatening to see if they're PR, especially if it's a day-scan, would have reasonable odds of going for him.

[David Xanatos]

Hmm.. CTD replaced in mid-late D2. That detracts from my theory somewhat.. will need to look at the person he replaced in for.

[David Xanatos]

Strike that. Although Hrezs did make a few pokes at MBL for asking questions and supplying little content, I don't see anything that would mark him as a particularly major target for a scan..

PEdit: I got "No Result" on my scan on Yos.

[David Xanatos]

And as I said, I wanted to try and get MBL to dig a hole for himself with a claim. Anything that didn't fall under a role that would carry a gun would instantly confirm him as Scum.

And to be quite frank, I have no idea about the rules regarding normal/large/theme games on this site. Fairly new here and in honesty I've not bothered looking them up. I should probably do so, but it's a learning experience.

[David Xanatos]

I'm just enjoying my time mostly coming in as a replacement. I find myself lurking towards the start of games through sheer lack of anything productive to say.. but when I drop in as a replacement, there's a load already there to look at. It also makes mod's lives easier, which is a bonus.

Anyway, that's beside the point. The point is, lynch MBL, get a claim at the very least, he's been avoiding it for too long. He's carrying a gun and there's a childerkins corpse because of him!

[David Xanatos]

You already have the Town argument.

It didn't make sense for me to claim D3 when there was a built wagon on someone I was suspicious of (Shanba), because it would divert everything to MBL, and pour focus onto me, thereby forcing a Doc to choose between protecting the Vig claim and protecting me. That gives Scum/SK a nice opening to shoot at the one they think would be unprotected. Upon KJ's Doc claim, I was preparing the draft claim, but held back to consider it while I slept/covered some coursework. By the time I came round again properly, I was distracted by Yos, then you counterclaimed. Yes, I should have claimed then. I didn't. I made a mistake, fair dos. However, from that point, a KJ lynch was apparent. There would be no reason for him to fakeclaim as Town, so to reveal MBL would have simply put me on the target list. During the night I went for a scan on Yos, getting a "No Result". I claimed a Guilty on MBL at the start of today to draw him into a claim, because anything other than "Townie with a Gun" or similar would have been instantly discounted by my read.

PEdit: That was the reasoning for my Cop claim at the start of today. Not yesterday.

Ask yourself, why would I have went to the effort of actually posting a screenshot of the times of the saved drafts? That was an effort to prove my point. (Which admittedly, I didn't know counted as against the rules, but nonetheless..)

I've put out my reasoning, and frankly, I'm at a disadvantage having replaced in, precisely because if I was around on D2, you can be damned sure I'd have done a lot more poking and prodding against MBL. Noone bothered actually challenging the fact he's essentially sat back and done nothing but ask questions this entire game, offering few solid opinions and generally being content to let Town hound amongst themselves. Take a look at the blatant vote anchoring on day 1 on Parama, (Despite posting a sizable analysis on AlmasterGM, and threatening to vote him in #487, and completely ignoring the retort in #511.), he then lurks through D2, paying minor lip-service to the Mastin wagon before he claims IC, and then jumping on squarely in the middle of the heavily Mastin driven wagon on Parama.. and day 3..

literally does nothing

. Oh, and at the same time, berates Town for not voting in #1172.

So. You realistically have a choice here.. the claimed Vanilla with questionable voting practice, which is the only power Vanilla have, or the claimed Gunsmith with a Guilty read on said claimed VT.

[David Xanatos]

I didn't confirm you.

I got "No Result". Hence my knowledge that I was roleblocked..

[David Xanatos]

That is to say, I got "No Result" as opposed to "Guilty", or I presume, "Innocent". It wouldn't make sense for the opposite of "Guilty" to be "No Result".

[David Xanatos]

CTD > Semantics really, the wording was "Has a Gun" but I've used them interchangeably, given that in the context of my role, they mean the same. I'd still presume that the opposite would be "Does not have a gun" or "You did not find a gun".

[David Xanatos]

9. Do not quote any mod communication or anything which originated outside of the game thread.

I've already recieved a warning for the screenshot.. I'd rather not risk a modkill by explaining in detail. After the game's over, I can clear up why I'm using them interchangeably.

[David Xanatos]

I'd ask that you unvote while I await the results of a PM to the mod.

[David Xanatos]

Okay.

Having consulted with the mod, I have determined that my result for the Innocent equivalent would be the lack of a gun, rather than no result.

So this confirms that I was Role Blocked or similar, so Yos is unconfirmed.

And CTD, to me they were interchangable, but the implication was in my trap on MBL that the standard association of the word "guilty" is "Cop read". That would lead him to claiming, which would prove my read by his lying, or show my reading was a false one and I could call off the wagon.

Make of this information what you will, either way, thank you for unvoting while I made those inquiries. I assume everything will be opened up after the game anyway, so you'll see where this all spawned from.

[David Xanatos]

I can't go into it without going into a very dark grey area, and given I'm already under a warning for the screenshot, I really don't want to push the issue.

If you're determined to lynch me, fine, it's your loss, possibly literally.

Going to send another mod PM, to check something.

[David Xanatos]

Given that the Vig was already revealed and pretty much confirmed, I'd say there's a pretty solid case on a "Has a Gun" = Guilty.

Whatever. I'm rapidly losing interest given your logic seems to be "Two extremely alike terms being used together = SCUM! IGNORE GUILTY READ!".

You're lynching a Gunsmith with a Guilty/Gun confirmation over a VT who didn't vote D3 and harboured his vote D1. Spin that any way you like, it's laughable play from my standpoint.

[David Xanatos]

Vig had only shot once, leaving it within the realms of Assassin. I said as much, more or less. As I said, keep your blinders on if you like, you'll just feel stupid when you see "Town Gunsmith" come up at the end of the day.

[David Xanatos]

Okay. I just recieved permission for this.

There was some ambiguity over the "guilty/has a gun" thing with the mod. I'm not sure if she'll confirm this or not, but it has rather directly led to this situation.

So.. yeah, apologies for it. It wasn't me, this time.

[David Xanatos]

Given the fact I've already been warned for posting a screenshot, you sincerely believe I'd falsify conversations and permissions from the mod?

[David Xanatos]

Oh? If you're this sure, what'll you do when I flip Town?

And what'll you do post-game when everything's published and you look a complete fanny?

Assuming you're Town that is.

CTD's already buying a hat to eat..

[David Xanatos]

Hey, if you're Scum, you're faking the VI role rather well. If you're Town, then frankly I overestimated your intelligence.

I would love to know your thought process here.. are you essentially saying you would expect Scum to risk a modkill, by what would have to be a blatant falsification of a discussion with the mod, to support a "gambit" that doesn't make sense as Scum anyway?

[David Xanatos]

10. Unsportsmanlike conduct (or the appearance thereof) can and will get you modkilled or force-replaced, if it is excessive.

I'm 95% sure that faking mod interactions would be considered pretty high up in the list of "unsportsmanlike conduct". It would also rate pretty highly in "things that are likely to get you blacklisted".

[David Xanatos]

There's surely a line between things like reads, and actual mechanics though. The only way I could prove the situation would be to quote my Role PM, which is explicitly against the rules. I was actually inquiring whether I was even allowed to mention the issue, since it was from the PMs. As I said, you'll see it all after the game ends.. and I'm still waiting on hearing exactly what DH will do to match CTD's hat eating, since he's so sure.

[David Xanatos]

But regardless. Either or both of you, what're your thoughts on the vote harbouring D1, middle-ground bussing D2 and complete lack of a vote while complaining about Townies not voting D3? Not registering at all for you?

[David Xanatos]

Toast > On and off for a couple years, and yes and no. I've always been taught that revealing with only 1-2 reads is incredibly bad value for the claim.. unless it comes down to the last couple of days. In terms of observer roles, I hold back any results I get unless the person claims something else.. I'll then make a spot decision on whether to reveal to prove them a liar.

In this case, as I've explained, the decision to withhold was mainly based on my suspicion of Shanba, and then the counter-claiming of KJ. I basically took a gamble that I'd be under the radar enough to survive the night and get another read, making my reveal a little more valuable.

[David Xanatos]

A Cop read.. in honesty, probably. As I said, I've always been taught that revealing with less than 3-4 reads as a Cop or variant isn't worth it, barring special circumstances. It makes you a target for kills/roleblocks and essentially shuts you down.

[David Xanatos]

At the risk of punishment, I'll spell it out.

My expected results, as defined by the role itself, would be "Guilty"/"Innocent".

The result I actually got through was "Has a Gun".

[David Xanatos]

Look, if you need some other way of thinking, suppose you lynch him, and I'm telling the truth, you lynch Scum. Good outcome.

If however, I'm lying, you lynch a town Vanilla, and you lynch me the next day, guarenteeing a Scum lynch.

Let's suppose you lynch me, and you're wrong. You lose Town Power, and Scum lives another night. (PEdit: And an MBL/Yos/Hydra scumteam wins instantly, I can spin the Wine too.)

If you lynch me, and you're right, congratulations, you may have protected a vanilla townie.

The only difference is when I get lynched if I'm Scum. If I was in a 3 man scumteam, why would I have come out with a claim, because I wasn't suspected.

If there were 3 Scum versus 5 townies, that means all Scum need are 2 votes on a Townie and they can hammer and win, all by themselves. There would be no logic in claiming at all today, because you could literally just sit back and wait for 2 Townies to stack up on another, and jump on the wagon.

[David Xanatos]

So I take it I'll get a rather nice video on youtube of you eating a hat when I flip Gunsmith and MBL flips Scum?

You still haven't bothered mentioning if you even looked at the MBL notes I put forward. You demand me to make a case beyond my role, and you apparently haven't even read it. Poor show.

[David Xanatos]

Browbeating? Far from it. I'm simply verifying that you intend to follow through on your original declaration. Hardly an attempt to intimidate.

And for all intents and purposes, you did. You went off on a rant about how my defense of my role and stance was somehow scummy, despite the fact that the primary concern of a Cop variant is to convince Town that he is both what he says he is, and Sane. Sanity is not an issue here (Although having read through the Normal ruleset, Millers are, so I was right to be concerned on that front.. but MBL's VT claim nullifies that need), so my main concern is to have Town follow through on my scan.

And again, confusion in the Role PM/Actions recieved. The wording in the PM was Guilty, and in the Actions Recieved it was Has a Gun.

And I note you've completely ignored my scenario analysis. Way to tunnel.

[David Xanatos]

Anyway, PS3 broke last night, taking it into Town since I still have the guarentee. Won't be able to respond for a while.

[David Xanatos]

"I lynched the SK"?

You didn't vote.

Not one vote/unvote on Day 3.

Also, you threatened AlmasterGM on D1 with moving your vote to him, then outright ignored his response, in favour of continuing to harbour your vote on Parama. D2 you simply hopped on the Parama wagon, heavily if not totally Mastin driven.. You asked a lot of questions, but did sod all other than harbour your vote on Parama once more. (Although you had an advantage there, knowing your scumbuddies.)

Ice > Why would the SK be Poison otherwise? Why would I have specifically noted that the SK was poison (My ISO #14).. if this was pulled up as a "Gambit" last night?

[David Xanatos]

As Gunsmith, I couldn't detect him, even if I tried. That's why I noted it, that post was when it "clicked" for me about why the SK had poison..

[David Xanatos]

If there are 2 scum, we're looking at a 50% shot of him being the RB..

@mod: If it comes to a 1 scum remaining situation, and they have a power role, can they use both the PR and the NK?

[David Xanatos]

I'm entitled to a "bah" post. So here it is.

Have a little respect for the dead, and get my name right.

[David Xanatos]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but theoretically Town could have lost at the end of D3, correct?

[David Xanatos]

D1 T lynch = 12
N1 = 3 kills = 9
D2 = 8
N2 = 5
D3 = 4

Ah, yeah, the SK would tip it to at least a N3 loss..

[David Xanatos]

Not really. N1 vig shot would have theoretically a 30% chance of hitting non-Town, about 42%. SK would have 23% chance of hitting Scum N1 or 33% N2. Scum are highly likely to hit town every night.

It could easily have skidded straight down the Tubes for Town. :/