NY 150: Mob Money Mafia GAME OVER

[mastin2]

Alright.
Let's get down to business.

VOTE: SlySly.

Die scum die.

[mastin2]

Right, so with the mod's assistance, I think I've gotten who replaced who down.

Nacho replaced Millar13 (Yes.)
Twistedspoon replaced C-worl (Right?)
I, mastin2, replaced Spicer1209 (Probably--slight chance mod got me and Oversoul backwards.)
Oversoul replaced Foxace36 (Probably--see above.)
BBmolla replaced Chimera (Sounds right.)
Projectmatt replaced Furcolow who replaced Grifest (POE suggests this.)
Elmo replaced Yourheroeshero (POE also suggests this.)

Sound right?

[mastin2]

Looking at my early QT notes, I actually wrote down who replaced who.

Right. So Oversoul-->Fox.
TS-->C-worl.
Elmo-->Hero.

Which means that the list above is indeed correct.

[mastin2]

For the record, SlySly's scum with Projectmatt/Furc/Grifiest as well, and probably Lowell. The fourth I am less sure on, but it's either Pine or Damon.

So says my QT, and so shall it be.

[mastin2]

Why are we voting SlySly again?

'Cause he's scum.

[mastin2]

For the record, SlySly's scum with Projectmatt/Furc/Grifiest as well, and probably Lowell. The fourth I am less sure on, but it's either Pine or Damon.

So says my QT, and so shall it be.

Wait, what do you mean by this?

You missed out. Most people here should remember that I have the power to rewrite reality and make what I say be true!

More seriously, exactly what TS said; I keep QTs for most of my games. I'll paraphrase what I have in it for Nacho's sake; it's not really that much.

[mastin2]

So early-QT:
-"Damon might be scum. Need Oversoul to give his reads."

Right. So Oversoul-->Fox (townread-ish).

TS-->C-worl (better-not-be-scum).

Elmo-->Hero (POE scum).

Those were my reads. But are they still accurate?

(Mostly, yes, but not quite; my opinion has changed since then.)

Updating my original Full reads list:
Millar stayed town.
I didn't like TS's posts, so the C-worl read worsened.
Pizza, Kise, and Lowell were all still town.
Oversoul read was worsened a little.
Sly was still scum.
Chimera moved down from town to null-townlean.
Pine remained scum.
Grifiest remained scumlean.
Hero/Elmo remained null.
Damon moved from null to scumlean.
Andy, Alex, mcqueen, and Bunny all became town; they originally were null/townlean/town/town, respectively.

I worked from that, eliminating the townreads to work via POE: {TS, Oversoul, Sly, Chimera, Pine, Grifiest, Elmo, Damon}.

Then I split that up, removing the 'confirmed scum' of Sly and Pine.
{Oversoul, Damon, Elmo}
{Twistedspoon, Grifest, Chimera}

-Townlean on Chimera, but still was waiting for Oversoul's reads.
-Elmo looked KINDA sorta town.
-Damon looked like he could *potentially* be town, but overwhelmingly seemed scummy.
-Grifiest remained null, until...

(Mid-QT)

-I declare TS scum, which by proxy made Grifiest town.
-I declare Damon town as well, looking between Elmo and Oversoul to 'complete' my scumteam.

And that lasts untill...

Late-QT, present reads:
-Lowell freaks me out. I INSTANTLY doubt my townread on him.
-I doubt my scumread on TS.
-Furcolow posts like scum-Furcolow, and I reverse it around to my original opinion, Grifiest/Furc as scum, which by proxy made TS town.

This led to the final scumhunting post I made in there before the crash:

Sly-Pine-Lowell-Furc?

Sly-Lowell-Furc-Damon?

Maybe. I dunno.

With me thinking the scumteam was one of the above two. I'm heavily leaning towards the latter, especially since it's more or less the scumteam Nacho proposed:
-You pushed Sly as scum.
-You were pushing Lowell as scum.
-You were pushing Damon as scum.
The only name on there which I'm not certain you were pushing as scum was Grifiest/Furcolow/Projectmatt. (I forget who--if anyone--your fourth suspect was. Sorry.)

I also recall either Oversoul or TS being suspicious of one or two of the above, with one of 'em being Grifiest.

Sorry I didn't take better notes. I mainly posted in the thread.

[mastin2]

Yeah, this is the town chkflip.

[mastin2]

I'm afraid I don't follow.


Anyway, I really came here to declare this:

Mod:

You know about my indefinite V/LA due to weather, but there's a potential V/LA in my future.

Earlier in the year, my cat died. And...well, my memory fails me, but my dog's either a year older or younger than my cat was, so he's a lil' bit on the old side as well. (14? 15? Something like that.)

Needless to say, he's got a lot of health problems, from severe arthritis to the point where he frequently requires assistance to stand up, to having ear infections which have left him practically death, to having been neutered to stop cancer, to being an old senile coot, to (the serious stuff) serious problems in his lungs and throat.

He's due for a surgery tomorrow which could save his life, but he's at serious risk of losing it. If he makes it, yay, you'll probably not notice any difference in me. If he doesn't, I probably won't feel like playing mafia for a day or two minimum, and it'd be a bad idea for me to do so, anyway.

[mastin2]

Where's the mod?

[mastin2]

SlySly - 2 (Mastin, Twistedspoon)
Damon Gant - 3 (Bunnylover, Kise, Nacho)

Ahhh, this is what I was waiting for.

Unvote, VOTE: Damon Gant.

[mastin2]

If Gant is scum, so is Lowell.

Yes. Yes he is.

(See also--my list, Nacho's suspicions.)

[mastin2]

@mastin: Were you mafia in that Flash Mafia game?

So...we're not going to continue it?

[mastin2]

Nah.

Pine was null, leaning town, but I'm a stubborn man; I couldn't let go of my old scumread on him. So he still is leaning town.
TS has gone across the whole spectrum, but currently is town.
You never dropped below the nullline, and have since moved up to town.

And Nacho's Nacho.

[mastin2]

Indeed, along with Lowell, Damon, and Matt.

[mastin2]

Not that I don't believe you (you'd have no reason to lie about something like that), but could I get a link to where he said this so I can confirm it? I don't know if what you're saying is accurate (just because you're not lying doesn't mean what you're saying has to be true), and I'd rather not get myself modkilled for talking about an ongoing-but-on-hold game.

[mastin2]

Sure. Why not?

Unvote, Vote: SlySly

.

[mastin2]

My list boils down to this, right now:

TOWN: (These people are without a doubt town and if any of them were scum it'd by scummy-nom worthy)
Nacho
Kise
Kondi
mcqueen
chkflip

WEAKER TOWN: (These people are probably town)
Andycyca
Damon Gant

NULL: (These people have potential to be scum, but probably aren't)
Bunnylover

MINOR SUSPECT POOL: (These people are in the suspect pool technically, in that I still need to keep an eye on them and review what I know, but they still have an above-average chance of being town*)
BBMolla
Oversoul
Twistedspoon

MAJOR SUSPECT POOL: (These people most likely contain the entire scumteam, although it's possible they have one member in the above category.)
Matt
Pizza
Lowell
Sly
Pine

*...That made more sense in my head. They're basically "maybe-scum" (to compare, Bunny's "potentially-[but-probably-not-]scum", which makes Bunny more town, but only slightly). I can't think of a better way to put it.

[mastin2]

Ah, just thought of a way.

"*Might* be scum, but probably aren't."
Compared to Null, which is "*Potentially* scum, but probably not."

[mastin2]

I feel my play is pretty much the same <.<

And you saying this invalidates the statement.

But sure, have this.

1. Projectmatt <--Haven't liked his posts. He replaced Furcolow, who was posting exactly like scum-Furcolow. Who himself replaced Grifiest, who was playing rather scummily himself. Yeah...

That said, though...

Unvote, Vote: Lowell

. He's always an anti-town player, but there's a difference between his town-self and his scum-self. I think he's playing as his scum-self.

[mastin2]

Bandwagon much?

That would be why, yes.

[mastin2]

I vote people who I think are scum.

Sly's actually a stronger scumread of mine than Lowell (since I *could* be wrong about the difference between Lowell's scum-anti-town-play and his town-anti-town-play), so if you're interested, I'd be more than happy to wagon him instead.

This is exactly the kind of scum push against a cop that I'd expect to see. And an experienced player like Sly should know better than to lynch a cop claim on day one. Heck, even *I* know better than that. Even if the player claiming cop was my strongest scumread, and I'm pretty sure they're fakeclaiming, they still deserve at least one night, since
-If they're scum, they have to fake results, which give us more insight, and
-If they're *not* scum and my read's wrong, their results are real and therefore valuable.

(Ah, the lessons you learn from being a moronic hydra in Tough Guy Mafia...)

[mastin2]

Tough Guy Mafia.

Go read it.

It's in the mini norm archives. Amor was the mod.

Look at the cop there. If I read his play to this day, I'd still think he were a scumbag fakeclaiming if he wasn't confirmed as being the cop via the game being over.

We pushed his lynch. And the game would have been worse off with his lynch.

I'm not saying "Lol, Damon's town, now."

Heck, even I'm not sure I buy the claim.

But he. is. NOT. the. lynch. today.

'Cause even if he's scum, he has to FAKE results which still GIVE information to us, and of course, should he be real, he sheds light on things.

[mastin2]

Yeah, Sly is *so* scum.

[mastin2]

Vote:...........

So tempted to vote Lowell.

And given how today is literally the day of the deadline, the reason you're not is......

...What, exactly?

[mastin2]

Mmm-hmm. There's a reason Nacho had Pizza as scum, after all. And why I revoked my townread on him.

But unless we can get, what, seven? Eight? Lynch-threshhold number of people to speedwagon Pizza today, he'll have to wait. (It's for that same reason Sly can't be lynched today.)

[mastin2]

There is NO way this BBMolla is forming so easily on scum. I'll need to check the names to make certain. But that wagon STINKS of scum.

[mastin2]

As it stands,
BBMolla - Nacho, TS, Oversoul, chkflip, mcqueen
Nacho - BBMolla, SlySly

The relevant bandwagons.

I really wanna say all the members of Palisade are town. I really,

really

do. And mcqueen wasn't playing as he did as scum, which made me think he was town. And chkflip is playing as I'd expect him to if he were town, and he replaced someone I had a slight townlean on.

But it's forming...well, too...

easily

to be a scumwagon. Too fast, too tempting. And while Chimera was overall a nullread, he was very slightly leaning town, a trend BBMolla continued: weak-town, and looking like he *could* be scum, but overall feeling like he wasn't.

The wagon just feels...*wrong*.

That said, the counterwagon is far, far worse.

[mastin2]

So let's review.

1. Projectmatt <--SUSPECT.

2. Twistedspoon <--I *want* him to be town. But it's weak. Veeeeery weak.

3. Pizzadudes7 <--SUSPECT.

4. Kise <--Town.

7. Oversoul <--I *Want* him to be town. But it's a weak read--stronger than TS, but by no means solid.

8. SlySly <--SUSPECT.

9. BBmolla <--Null, but with a townlean.

10. Pine <--I *want* him to be town. I really, really do. But he's a weaker townread than Oversoul, and maybe weaker than TS, even.

11. Nachomamma8 <--Town.
12. Kondi2424 <--Town.
14. Andycyca <--Most likely town.

15. Chkflip <--Strong townlean.
16. Mcqueen <--Strong townlean.

17. Bunnylover <--Seemed town before.

[mastin2]

My list boils down to this, right now:

TOWN: (These people are without a doubt town and if any of them were scum it'd by scummy-nom worthy)
Nacho
Kise
Kondi
mcqueen
chkflip

WEAKER TOWN: (These people are probably town)
Andycyca
Damon Gant

NULL: (These people have potential to be scum, but probably aren't)
Bunnylover

MINOR SUSPECT POOL: (These people are in the suspect pool technically, in that I still need to keep an eye on them and review what I know, but they still have an above-average chance of being town*)
BBMolla
Oversoul
Twistedspoon

MAJOR SUSPECT POOL: (These people most likely contain the entire scumteam, although it's possible they have one member in the above category.)
Matt
Pizza
Lowell
Sly
Pine

*...That made more sense in my head. They're basically "maybe-scum" (to compare, Bunny's "potentially-[but-probably-not-]scum", which makes Bunny more town, but only slightly). I can't think of a better way to put it.

Thinking this through...

TOWN:
Nacho
Kise
Kondi

WEAKER TOWN:
mcqueen
chkflip
Andycyca

NULL:
Bunnylover

MINOR SUSPECT POOL:
BBMolla
Oversoul
Twistedspoon

MAJOR SUSPECT POOL: (These people most likely contain the entire scumteam, although it's possible they have one member in the above category.)
Matt
Pizza
Sly
Pine

I actually still like this. Pine *might* need to move up, though in order to do so, someone else'd need to move down.

[mastin2]

Okay, so maybe BBMolla is scum after all. Since from what I know of BBMolla, well...this doesn't remind me of his townplay, either. His posts on this page are basically horribad. And I'm moving chkflip back up, after having previously moved him down, for having pointed out my concern before even I did.

(Until this post, I hadn't actually read any of page 11 or the end of page 10; I just paid attention to the votes, noticing the alarming number on BBMolla.)

[mastin2]

In fact.

Unvote, Vote: BBMolla

.

If I did the math right (15 alive, 8 to lynch, 5 votes plus mine), this should be L-2.

I want a claim.

[mastin2]

Dang it, TS, BL, and BB! (To varying degrees.)

I want you guys to be town, but you're making it incredibly difficult to beleive with your incredibly scummy interactions with one another. >_<

[mastin2]

Not here for long; have to leave again soon. I must say (and it wouldn't surprise me to learn I'm not the only one feeling this way), in this game, I'm kinda feeling a little bit...well, apathetic.

I might check again who was pushing for a Damon lynch D1 after his claim, though; that might get me an idea of what direction to go in.

[mastin2]

So I probably should be posting here again soon.

I must apologize. I kinda lost contact with most of my games in the last few days. I was...focused...elsewhere, to say the least. To the point where I kinda forgot what I was thinking in here, among others. I'll have to read from the last point I seriously contributed, and either ISO myself or look at my QT to get back into the game. Sorry for my neglect.

[mastin2]

Sure. If memory serves, Bunny was on my nulllist, anyway.

Unvote, Vote: Bunnylover.

[mastin2]

Apologies for the copy-paste, but I honestly think that this game quite frankly needs it just as much, if not more:

So, I just changed my sig. Sure, I guess I could still be V/LA due to weather, but the season has mostly passed by, and I think that the space is far better used up to tell that message.

Basically, I was inspired by these threads, which made me realize something:

I originally kept on playing for the intellectual challenge. And on a related note, I've called myself the "Eternal Newbie", in that I never stop adapting, never stop changing, never stop trying something new, and am constantly evolving my play. Yet...

...Have I?

The last time I remember using logic was in Tough Guy Mafia as a hydra. Almost a year ago. Since then, I've used

reasoning

, sure, but not true, good, honest

logic

. I'm seen widely as irrational. And worse, I've stagnated. My play hasn't improved in months. Despite all my efforts to the contrary, where I do a few bold moves every once and a while, I really have sunk into mediocre play in all my games.

So, in an effort to change both problems, I'm going to try my best to change things up a bit. I think Part of the problem is "internalization", in that a lot of things I used to do manually (tone, motive, interaction, etc.), I've done so often that they're done automatically--to the point where I can't even tell what I'm doing, and am forced to call it gut. So I'm going to try and undo the damage that has happened, to remove the decay in my play.

And this game really could use a fresh perspective, in that I've seriously lost my touch with it.

It'll take a liiiittle bit of time in my QT (which I realized that as a whole, I do not use often--I can go days, even weeks without posting in them, whereas originally I posted almost every day), to sort things through.

But I think that when I'm finished, you'll see a new and improved mastin2.

I know, it's a little close to deadline for me to make a move like this, but I do think the payoff would be well worth it if I could actually make it work. Wish me luck; this is something which...well, I quite frankly have no clue if it'll do any good. But I have to try.

[mastin2]

Hey.

Nacho:
Oversoul:
Pine:
Twistedspoon:

I have a proposal to make.

Nacho's a strong townread. Pine was iffy, but might be town. Oversoul's a weaker townread, as is TS.

...But the important factor here is that you're all to varying degrees, still townreads.

Why don't we all get together and form a voting block? 5 players working together has to be an incredibly strong combo. Between the five of us, there HAS to be SOMEONE who we can all agree is scum.

My best bet would be Bunny, since

Bunnylover - 5 (Oversoul, Pine, Mastin, Chkflip, Bunnylover)

...We've got three already, plus a fourth former (Nacho).

What say you?

[mastin2]

Do you think Bunny is going to flip scum?

Did I think Bunny had a larger-than-normal chance of flipping scum?

Yes.

Was I sure of it?

No. Bunny was, like, my weakest scumread. A scumread, yes, around 60% sure, but was I as confident as the question implied?

No, that'd require at least another 15%.

Given the circumstances of the hammer, I don't think we did, though. It reeks all of a sudden of being a mislynch.

[mastin2]

Unvote, VOTE: Projectmatt.

Though I'd also go for SlySly.

[mastin2]

Actually.

SlySly - 3 (Knox, Mcqueen, Kise)

Unvote, Vote: Slysly

.

[mastin2]

Running me up is going to be fruitless.

Really, now? Way I see it, you're now tied for being the primary lynch candidate, with at least one member of the Palisade bloc willing to join (Pine), with one other who has expressed suspicion on you (Nacho), and

at

least

two others who'd probably join if they needed to. (TS and Oversoul.)

That seems far from fruitless to me.

[mastin2]

But this idiot town doesn't get it. 2 investigative roles down.

Oh, I fully got the implication that you were attempting to softclaim.

Thing is, I have a "hardclaim or die" policy, as I come from a generation which was

sick

of softclaims, which were a pretty reliable scumtell.

Heck, you're part of that generation, no? '09?

...Yeah. You'd know better than this as town.

[mastin2]

Actually, it was '08-'09. I really have no clue why people

stopped

pushing the "hardclaim or die" policy, as it was standard play back in my day. (I feel old. I was around when Kise was new to the site, and was quite established as a player, even having an alt by that point in time.)

[mastin2]

Case'n'point: Oversoul's Mini. I got away with a softclaim as scum, allowing me to coast by for two days without suspicion while I cooked up the details of the claim. I didn't even think of my JOAT claim 'til day 3; before then, I was thinking doctor. And had I claimed doctor, I probably woulda been lynched by kdowns. There's a reason I see it as a scumtell.

[mastin2]

Ah, so a claim of rolecop it is...

Yeah, he's scum, relaying his result to his buddies.

[mastin2]

Hey mastin, can you answer the question I asked you in my reads post?

Which question was that?

Also, of course whatever post 515 is makes me look town. I'm not exactly thrilled with the thought of it (I would be if I were dead the night after it happened, a-la-Underground Mafia ), but I'm pretty much confirmed town from Sly's rolecop of me.

VOTE: Knox. Unless the scum knew Sly was a traitor, his wagon pretty much has two scum guaranteed. (Even if they did, one scum is still pretty much confirmed.) I eliminated Kise and mcqueen. That left both neighbors (which contain a MAXIMUM of one scum), and three other names: {knox, kondi, BBMolla}. knox seems the most likely.

[mastin2]

@mastin: No, you are not confirmed by that. Sly was a Traitor, so he might not have known the scumteam.

He rolecopped me, and said what my role was in-thread. Telling the scum exactly what I am. The only way that wouldn't confirm me as town is if I were scum, who didn't know who he was, and he also didn't know the scumteam, so investigated me, and lied about the result to help tell me, "DUDE, I'M ON YOUR SIDE!" Basically, the only way I'm not confirmed town is if BOTH the scum AND the traitor were unaware of each other. The traitor role can be done any number of ways (both know each other, neither know each other, scum knows traitor, traitor knows scum; usually, which is which depends on whether the scum can recruit the traitor by nightkilling them), but that's the only way it'd not confirm me as town. Because if I knew him as scum, and he didn't know me, then him telling me woulda been unnecessary, as I'd already know. If he knew me, then he wouldn't have investigated me--and there's no hints he investigated anyone other than me, as far as I can tell.

Tl;dr, there's pretty much only one scenario where I'm possibly scum, and it's an uncommon variation on the role which isn't used often, making me pretty close to confirmed town. Hence why I'm dissatisfied that I'm still alive*.

It doesn't matter if he knew the scumteam or not. He was still saying his result to them. And honestly, it doesn't matter if the scumteam knew him or not, either, as regardless of the circumstances, he had at least one scum on his wagon, two if they didn't know him.


*Speaking of which, I need to check mcqueen's reads. He was largely seen as a townread, yes, but I need to see if he was killed for being a townread unlikely to be protected, if he was killed PR-hunting, if he was killed for his scumhunting, or some combination of the above. He's dead for a reason, though.

[mastin2]

I AM TOWNISH? I'VE BEEN SAVING YOUR ASS ALL GAME!

Mcqueen, in relationship to Bunnylover. If Bunny were scum, killing mcqueen (one of Bunny's strongest defenders) wouldn't exactly be the smartest move. So if mcqueen died for his reads, Bunny's town. This may need looking into as well.

Meh. kondi2424's 465 is the towniest I've ever seen kondi2424. To be honest, it just leads me to think Pine and Bunnylover are both town, because neither seems extremely scummy (except the fact I dislike Pine, but going with 465, he's town).

UNVOTE: [Pine]

Kondi-town?

Why do you think we should go after Bunnylover, again, other then, "the current wagons suck?"

This was addressed to Oversoul.

A lot of mcqueen's iso is dedicated to Pine, though I think when he died, he had a townread on Pine. But IF there's scum in the neighborhood, I'd say it's almost certainly Pine.

There's also some good BBMolla interaction, like here and (most importantly) here, but I can't read it either way.

---

Little off-topic, but

P-Edit - @mastin2 - I didn't believe Damon_Gant's claim, and I at first I kept my vote on Damon_Gant, but I later switched, for reasons including I didn't want to lynch a claimed cop, it was too risky.

Still need to check other than mcqueen and Sly who wanted to lynch Damon post-claim.

[mastin2]

Here we go. Yeah, I think we seriously need to rethink the ol' chkflip townread that I've had since he replaced in for Chimera (who was a weak townread barely above null).

[mastin2]

mastin do you have a minute?

Uh, sure. Why?

[mastin2]

You. That's the only name I can think of not already on there which I can be 100% certain of.

[mastin2]

BBmolla - 1 (Twistedspoon)
Nacho - 2 (

Nacho

,

SlySly

)
Bunnylover - 3(Chkflip, Projectmatt,

Andycyca

)
SlySly - 8(Knox,

Mcqueen, Kise, Mastin, Bunnylover, Pine

, Kondi, BBmolla)
Projectmatt - 1 (Oversoul)

Kondi *might* be worthy of the list, but I'm not confident enough to say for certain. As for scum, there should be three or so left. My best bet's Knox for one of 'em. I'm hoping that TS and Oversoul are town, and if so, that'd leave groups of {chkflip, matt} and {Kondi, BBMolla}, probably with one scum in each.

[mastin2]

1. Projectmatt <--Replaced Furcolow (who when he was posting, was posting in his scum meta), who replaced grifiest (who was null-to-scumlean in his posts).
2. Twistedspoon <--Replaced C-worl.
3. Knox <--Replaced Pizzadudes7.
7. Oversoul <--Replaced Foxace (had no posts).
9. BBmolla <--Replaced Chimera. (Dang, I keep getting BBMolla and chkflip's slots confused. >_<)
15. Chkflip <--Replaced Elmo (null-but-townlean), who replaced Yourheroeshero (no posts).

Those are the relevant replacements.

[mastin2]

SlySly - 8(Knox, [peoplelistedastown], Kondi, BBmolla)

So if Knox being the first and only scum on the wagon feels awkward, and you don't think Kondi's worth pushing, does that mean you think that BBMolla's scum, Nacho?

[mastin2]

I still like it as Knox, 1 of {chkflip, Matt}, and 1 of {Kondi, BBMolla} (based on wagon placement), though it might be better paired off as 1 of {chkflip, BBMolla} and 1 of {Kondi, Matt} (based off of play). I think, anyway.

Right now, my best guess is Knox-Matt-BBMolla, but I dunno.

[mastin2]

Got an idea for a more complete scumteam, though? Kondi'd be one of three.

Which'd still leave two in the below names.
chk
matt
knox <--Who you said would be awkward.
bb <--Who you just said wasn't.

...Does that mean you see a chkflip-matt-kondi scumteam?

[mastin2]

Ah, okay. I'm not entirely sold on kondi (I'll need to check), but I'm on knox right now, and would join a matt wagon if it were to form.

[mastin2]

Users browsing this forum: mastin2, projectmatt, T-Bone

[mastin2]

Hope you don't mind me leaving. I need to eat.

[mastin2]

Note, should also check Damon's suspects as well. He mighta been a cop, yes, but if the scum didn't fear him, he wouldn't be dead.

[mastin2]

Since it's coming up in a couple of weeks (actually will be over in two weeks, starting a week and around four days from now ), should announce it here:

Mod: V/LA first Friday of May 'til Monday

. That should be the 4th to the 7th or 8th or so. (My calendar math sucks. ) Annual Square Dance Festival. (

Don't look at me like that!

)

[mastin2]

@Mastin are you going to weigh in on the game before your VLA?

I already have, pretty much.

[mastin2]

So I asked the mod.

Sly was a godfather (did not show up as part of the mafia), Kise was not. Since Sly already had a role, it's safe to assume (despite the mod not answering) he didn't have access to the mafia QT and is what most people would consider to be a traditional traitor. (Whether he knew them and/or the scum knew him is still debatable.)

Also, the neighbors might as well be masons. Look at the town's (extreme lack of) power in this game. We've got a cop, and a miller to counter it, against an investigation-immune-traitor-rolecop and a jailkeeper (roleblocker, potential doc as well). Simply put...we've got pretty much nothing, against a scumteam which has some fairly strong PRs.

So either we've been incredibly lucky and had a lot of PRs dodge the kill...or the PRs we have are stronger than we think. AKA, the neighbors weren't meant to be neighbors, but originally were meant to be masons. AKA, they're both town. (That...made more sense in my head. )

Now with 8 alive, I think there's probably two scum left, which means either today or tomorrow, we should probably no-lynch, and either today or tomorrow, we'll need to massclaim. Thoughts from everyone on that?

VOTE: knox.

[mastin2]

1. Projectmatt <--Original slot (grifiest) was fairly bad, replacement Furcolow played to his scum meta of short posts until he replaced out, and matt's play here has been incredibly scummy. Conclusion, scum.
2. Twistedspoon <--Ditto. Hoping town, as a Palisade town bloc would be awesome.
3. Knox Pizzadudes7 <--My other scum suspect. Pizza's play was scummy, Knox made it worse.
9. BBmolla <--If I'm wrong on Knox or Matt, it'd be BBMolla replacing them.
10. Pine <--Prob-town via neighborhood.
11. Nachomamma8 <--Confirmed town.
17. Bunnylover <--Prob-town via neighborhood.

[mastin2]

Bunny, we have eight alive, with two scum left being most likely.

Our odds improve with odd numbers, seven or five, as it limits the lynch pool. It also forces the scum to NK a player and give insight into the setup based on who died and their townflip, while also giving any theoretical PRs a chance to get more actions in. Which means either today or tomorrow, we should no-lynch.

[mastin2]

Y'know?

Unvote, VOTE: projectmatt.

My case against Matt feels stronger, Oversoul made a case against matt and HE is the one who ended up dead, combined with matt's willingness to vote knox?

Yeah. This is the way to go.

[mastin2]

By the way, in case the Palisade brigade failed to inform you,

Mod: V/LA due to access issues

. This might not go away at home, knocking me permanently out of Saturday and Sunday, but I should be able to post Tuesday through Friday.

[mastin2]

THIS TIME FOR REAL. VOTE: Projectmatt.

Yes, Pine, I disagree, albeit only a little bit. Nacho's dead. His role means he could have successfully protected someone, but quite frankly I find it far more likely that the scum just flat-out NK'd him. Guess who he was pushing? Matt and BBMolla. The order's Matt-BBMolla-Knox.

[mastin2]

*sigh*

The only people posting? Me, with a vote down already, Pine, who is voting the same person, and Matt, the person we're both trying to lynch.

Knox, I can understand, seeing as how T-Bone is seeking a replacement and all.

...But Bunnylover, who should be playing?

BBMolla, who has given nothing? (Side-note, this is his scum-meta. Definitely considering switching over.)

Twistedspoon?

All nothing. Zero posts since day start. Two days ago. Over 48 hours; four out of seven players due for a prod. (For that matter, so is the mod. )

That's just sad, man.

[mastin2]

Aw, heck.

Unvote, Vote: BBMolla

. Pine, matt, come join me here. It'll at least get 3/4 needed for a lynch so that we don't no-lynch. Again. (Again-again.)

[mastin2]

Registered users: AGar, Ant, Areso, Bing [Bot], callforjudgement, Deltabacon, Dutch one, Elmo TeH AzN, Empking, Google [Bot], JDodge, Lady Bliss, Magua, pieceofpecanpie, raspberrylicious, Rhinox, Seanald, Seraphim, SleepyKrew, Thomith,

Twistedspoon

, Wray

I SEE YOU THERE, TS! COME POST ALREADY!!!

[mastin2]

And for that matter...

Registered users: Ant,

BBmolla

, Bing [Bot], callforjudgement, Chrimi, Deltabacon, Elmo TeH AzN, Google [Bot], hitogoroshi, Magua, MSNbot Media, OhGodMyLife, Omba, raspberrylicious, Rhinox, Seanald, Thomith, Timeater,

Twistedspoon

, Yaw

...BBMolla's continued lack of posting disturbs me.

[mastin2]

I not only saw him online, but BROWSING THIS FORUM. Yet no comment. Nothing.

[mastin2]

So Pine. Matt. Why not put your money where your mouth is?

In fact, please do. I think that a quicklynch today could actually accomplish something if it's on scum. Which (with BBMolla's continued lurking) it looks like it is. In fact, I think with a quicklynch on BBMolla and him flipping scum, we've got a guaranteed town win. I'll explain tomorrow if I live.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Split. I can run with that.

[mastin2]

Yeeeeeeeeah...a valiant effort, but you lost this game before you even replaced in.

[mastin2]

Six nights, and you give results for only five?

You're missing a night.

Yeah......

[mastin2]

Further hole--during N1, knox was Pizza. It wasn't until D2 that knox came in.
He showed no reason at all to track Andy, either.

knox showed no hints at having tracked Andy, and while there are a few things suggesting TS was THEORETICALLY a possible track, it doesn't look probable given knox's posts.

[mastin2]

Two bodyguards and (if your claim is truthful) a tracker does bump town's power up reasonably...but five scum? Even with two as potentially-no-qt-access traitors? With the claimed neighbors not being neighbors? When they have two strong PRs against only our few weak ones? (Other than our cop.)

No. 5 scum's the realm of 20-player games, not 17-player games.

Admittedly, the thought that both neighbors were fakeclaiming scum did cross my mind, since it seemed like the kind of gambit Pine WOULD pull off, but the setup suggests otherwise.

[mastin2]

Basically, we have
-A cop. Strongest PR.
-A miller. Weakens the cop, especially since it went unclaimed.
-Two bodyguards. And the setup reviewers would be incompetent if they did not anticipate the possibility that one would claim and then be CC'd, costing the town both of them at the same time. Not to mention, the fact that they DIE if they do their job correctly.
-A claimed tracker, not a strong investigative role.

...Against
-A rolecop (one who most likely did not have access)
-A jailkeeper (when there is no killing role for the town, so just a roleblocker--and probably had QT access)
...And three goons?

The town's PRs work on destroying themselves, while the scum's PRs augment and support each other, while still being viable claims to make and be considered town--the scum could have truthfully claimed to be a jailkeeper and likely would not have met much suspicion (at least not until both bodyguards died), and they truthfully claimed rolecop and could have potentially gotten away with it if it weren't done in the most scummy way possible.

If that's true? If that's the setup? I'm not going to take the blame for losing, man. That setup'd be DESIGNED to DESTROY the town. The town's PRs do not work at all together, they in fact quite hinder one another, and the scum are basically set up perfectly in order to win easily, since with five scum, they control nearly a third of the town from the start.

[mastin2]

Beyond that, what'd be required for split to be town?
Matt would have specifically had to have gone nowhere last night for the claim to be truthful, when Matt knew he was on the mislynch block and the only way he could realistically escape was to do his job and die for the town. And as a PR, he had no reason NOT to take an action last night, and no-actioning would be pretty much playing against a wincon.

And if he did, but was blocked? That'd require a second scum blocking role, which again bumps their power up to insanely high levels.
And how would the scum even know he was a PR, anyway? He dropped no visible hints, and their rolecop was eliminated. (Again, if they had another, insanely high scum power beyond anything approaching reasonable.) Just for the NK-wifom? Again, sabotaging their chances, since he was primed for a mislynch.

There's no reasonable scenario where split is town and there's five scum.

[mastin2]

Addressing split, who thinks the game's over.

Admittedly, bunny's hammer-without-reason kinda sorta does support the "Ha, we just won!" point of view, but again, there's no way that it could happen with the setup, unless T-Bone is completely incompetent and his setup reviewers let the ridiculously scum-sided setup go through unhindered. I'd like to have more faith in them than that.

There has to be four scum for it to even be CLOSE to balanced.

[mastin2]

Funnily enough, I knew this was going to happen. I knew I wouldn't die, despite the fact that most people consider me confirmed town, and that going into lylo, it'd most likely be you two crossvoting. I knew that, despite Bunnylover being the best mislynch, BL would be dead today. And I knew it all, because...

...I realized that there would in fact be scum in the Palisade bloc. And in fact, I'm fairly certain that I know who it is. The only reason that I'm not voting immediately is because I'd get chastized for recklessly diving into lylo by voting immediately if I'm somehow wrong. I'll double-check the facts, review the evidence another time, but again, I made a note in my QT of exactly who I thought was scum, and I figured it'd be them regardless of whether it was me or BL who died--and I was certainly hoping it'd be BL, since I knew BL would be mislynch bait in lylo, I knew that if need be I could easily prove I'm confirmed town, and I knew where I was going with my lylo vote.

All because of the PM nightkill. When he was still dead because of a protect (split-as-scum), it made sense that he died protecting someone. Once it was shown that he didn't (that he really went nowhere, and therefore was nightkilled), it became as clear as day who made his kill. It also became clear who'd kill Oversoul and Nacho. Suddenly, all the nightkills made sense to me. Every action made sense, including the final BL kill.

So you've probably guessed who it is, but again, no vote 'til I confirm my facts.

[mastin2]

You forget I have a QT, Pine. I have the message in there.

Also on the other hand, I'm dead, since I'm conftown and dangerous to have in lylo.
Though I wouldn't be surprised if Bunny were instead killed, to leave lylo as a contest between the members of the Palisade hydra.

Basically, I die.
Bunny's framed, and is the prime mislynch. TS is the secondary mislynch. Pine's most likely scum.
I live. TS is framed (primary mislynch), Pine's secondary mislynch. Pine's still most likely scum.

Why?

Well, who else'd pull the wifom-kill on Matt?
Who else was at no risk of being lynched?

Who else could do it without compromising their wincon?

In other words, it's 98% likely to be Pine.
It's 1.5% likely to be TS.

It's only .5% likely to be BL, the mislynch bait.

Of course, Pine'll most likely kill me.

While I'd love it if he let me live, thinking he could get a victory over me and gloat about having fooled me to the end and endgamed me...

...He's not that stupid. He lives by the rule that he'll let me live in a game until he thinks that I'll turn against him, and now's the time which I'm turning against him; he's smart enough to probably realize that I am doing just exactly that, so bam, I'm gone.

Put bluntly.

TS--while not in line officially to be lynched--was the person we'd turn to lynching after PM and split flipped town, since the neighbors were "masons" (no, not with our extra flipped power they're not), I'm conftown and a pain to mislynch, leaving...TS as the only person who would be left.

Killing PM paints a target on his head which otherwise would not have appeared.

If TS killed anyone else, then it would have been a PM lynch yesterday, and a split lynch today for a win. There mighta been BL suspicion thrown around, but it'd have fallen through in the end, and TS wouldn't have caught anyone's sights. A perfect victory.

With TS killing PM, and then BL after that, it's painting a huge target on him. It'd be putting himself into the firing line, needlessly risking his life. It sets him up as being the final lynch, and as scum, that's EXACTLY what he wants to avoid. This would require him to go for a WIFOM-victory, by double-screwing himself over with both NKs and HOPING that I'd fall for it...

...OR, that he's town being set up with both kills to fall into the firing line. To be the mislynch bait. He's become vulnerable, he's become a target. And who would set TS up, other than Pine?

[mastin2]

Bah, just lost my post. Basically, there's also the fact that BL died. Given that we've had a SIGNIFICANT spike in town power, with two bodyguards and a tracker, would the neighbors still think each other confirmed town?

Would they think that it'd be between TS and I? No, there'd be paranoia on BL's part. Maybe in the end, BL would conclude as much, but there'd be suspicion of Pine, and that suspicion would only grow once one of TS and I died, leaving the other wide open to attack--and leaving BL (the weaker of the neighbors) as an alternative. Setting up a BL-TS situation, most likely. And in that scenario, BL would know what had happened, would have evidence from BL's QT to help prove it, and could potentially turn things around against Pine, by using their conversations against him--just like Tammy did to MoI. Pine was part of that game (not much of one, mind you, but still was there), and presumably would know the power of a neighbor QT to destroy him. It's a threat, one best not had in lylo.

Again, TS had nothing to gain by killing BL. BL was TS's best shot at a mislynch. And in a TS-BL-mastin2 three-way, TS has about equal chances with all three players. TS-Pine-mastin2 shifts the favor against him significantly, since Pine has been seen as being miles more town than BL for most of the game.

[mastin2]

Also...

Oversoul - Vanilla Townie - Killed Night 4
Nachomamma8 - Town Bodyguard - Killed Night 5

The proof is in the order of these kills.
You need only look at my loss in GvE, CvL to see why if I were scum, Nacho would die

first

, and Oversoul second.

But working off of the theory that Pine is scum...when it comes to members of the Palisade hydra, who is he closest to?
Me, the co-founder of the hydra. Hence, why I'm still alive.
Who is he second-closest to?

Nacho, the last member of the Palisade hydra killed. Saving him for as long as humanly possible.
Who is he next-most-familar with?

Oversoul, the first member to be killed, someone who is close to him, but not extremely close.

Who is he least-close-to?

TS, who has lived to be the target of the mislynch.

[mastin2]

Lowell - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 1
Damon Gant - Town Cop - Killed Night 1
SlySly - Town Traitor Rolecop - Lynched Day 2
Mcqueen - Vanilla Townie - Killed Night 2
Chkflip - Vanilla Townie - Mod-Killed Day 3
Kondi - Vanilla Townie - Mod-Killed Day 3
Kise - Mafia Traitor Jailkeeper - Mod-Killed Day 3
Andycyca - Town Miller - Mod-Killed Day 3
Oversoul - Vanilla Townie - Killed Night 4
Nachomamma8 - Town Bodyguard - Killed Night 5
BBmolla - Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 6
Projectmatt - Town Bodyguard - Killed Night 6

Also, think about it. Damon's kill is obvious, because he was a cop. But he also showed Kise suspicion and was interested in lynching a neighbor. Which means that he very well could have investigated a neighbor, and was on the right track--a threat, killed despite the scum potentially fearing protective roles. They took a risk by killing him, despite having a jailkeep (roleblock) to work with.

Sly had a VT rolecop of me. This is what has semi-cleared me by itself (especially when you realize he was trying to get me mislynched by pointing to the supposed mason claim as evidence I'm scum), though some have brought it into question.

mcqueen attacked SlySly, and was widely considered town. But of the neighbors, the one he consistently antagonized? Pine. He defended BL to the death, and was consistently suspicious of Pine.

[mastin2]

other than that Mastin puts up a surprisingly easy to understand thought process.

Hence why I'm supposed to be dead well before lylo. The longer I live, the more I pick up steam. I'm not completely convinced it's Pine, yet, but I am a good 90% sure it's him. I'm going to try an Oversoul/Nacho iso, maybe throw in PM as well, see what comes up. But I think the picture can only become clearer from this point: everything points to Pine.

Since guess what?

Which neighbor did Sly attack hardest? BL.

Which neighbor did Kise attack? BL.

[mastin2]

I'll be honest, PM's posts and Nacho's last posts are giving me a little hesitation. Will double-check, but first, I wanted to take a look at Pine.

Thought I already had, actually.

Unvote
Vote: BB

He wasn't on BBMolla, despite his suspicion being on BBMolla; this was his excuse and switchover.

Rest of his iso earlier up gives me pause, though, especially when considering that BBMolla was pushing Pine as scum. If they bussed, it was mutual, and it was planned.

But in hindsight, that might actually explain a lot--if the QT were Pine and BBMolla, a mutual bus between them for massive towncred would be exactly the kind of gambit necessary to pull through. Going to check a lil' more.

[mastin2]

(This is why I resisted the urge to flat-out vote Pine from the get-go. )

[mastin2]

SlySly - 8(Knox, Mcqueen, Kise, Mastin, Bunnylover, Pine, Kondi, BBmolla)

This would strongly suggest the scum either didn't know Sly was scum, or figured they'd get towncred from bussing him. Kise and BBMolla are both on there, and if Pine's also scum, he's present as well.

Note, however, this:

Bunnylover - 6 (Oversoul, Pine, Mastin, Chkflip, Bunnylover, Projectmatt)

With neither BBMolla nor Kise on the lynch, they easily could have lynched BL if they wanted to--why didn't they? If Pine were town, it'd set him up as the D3 mislynch, since people like me thinking both were town were in the minority at the time.

If Pine were scum, however, it makes perfect sense to keep both neighbors alive for as long as possible--to ensure that Pine doesn't get lynched the minute BL flips town. And it was only later in the game (some time mid-day-three) that people began to swing towards the belief that both neighbors were town. And my stance was that, that they were both town. I concluded they were meant as masons, and Pine said that in their QT they concluded much the same. And TS was mostly thinking they were town.

Meaning that it would therefore be safe to kill BL without getting nearly as much suspicion. If anything, under the impression that both are masons, killing BL gives Pine even MORE towncred, since it shows that "the neighbors are a threat! We'd kill both of them if we had two nights to do so!", basically setting Pine (under the "masons" theory) up as confirmed town, when he's anything but. And this is confirmed with my view on them (exactly that, that they were both town), along with TS's stance:

Pine is almost conf. town after BB interactions and everything else.

Pine makes a lot of sense as the last scum for this, because again, going into the night, TS thought Pine was town. Last Pine knew, I thought Pine was town and had shown TS suspicion.

BL, however, was an unknown, an unknown which the neighborhood could help decide overnight.

[mastin2]

Dammit, this is why I hate lylo. This is Sexy Sedilla all over again. (Woulda been far better had Oversoul lived rather than TS, too.)

Mod: When is deadline?

I'm going to need that extra time.

[mastin2]

(Speaking of Oversoul, happy scumday, bud.)

Ah, heck. Let's do it from the beginning. (Of the relaunch, anyway.) It's only 35 pages, and considering this is the only game I'm in which is in lylo (I really wanted that win. ), I've got the time to do it. Let's roll.

VOTE: Sly

let's roll. I've still got my eye on you Mastin.

Immediately sets his eye on Sly, along with me as well.

8. Because of #3, I believe the odds are raised that either Pine or Bunny is scum. However, if I recall correctly, Pine had given me town vibes and my vote was on Bunny pretty much out of PoE.

Immediately guns for BL. Despite this, does not gun for either neighbor.

I bold stuff all the time, amigo.

Am I the third mafiosi?

No-one can really comment on BB yet. He's right to be confused. He read zilch of the game beforehand. I think a townie would be just as paranoid at having zero information

This, however, is borderline scumslip from TS. Three scum is almost certainly the number which was in the QT. And he opens with a defense of BBMolla. But on the other hand...

Let it be, BB. If he truly believes you to be scum you'll hardly be able to convince him now will you?

...This is a little too blatant to be typical scum interactions. Rather, it reads as someone who is talking to someone they believe to be town.

•SlySly - Leaning Scum - Null - I can't remember SlySly hardly at all, but I thought he did something that came off as scummy to me, but nothing that ever made me say, "Oh look! That dude [SlySly] is definitely, 100%, scum!"
•BBmolla - Null - Obviously, he just replaced in, so there's not much I can say about him, at the moment.
•Pine - Null - He did some townie things, some scummy things, and some null things, along with the unknown pairing of the neighbor group (town-town or town-scum), leaves me with a null on him.
•Elmo TeH AzN - Null - Don't remember him too good, producing the null.
•Bunnylover - Null - Leaning Town - I saw him as town, but the possibility of a town-scum neighbor group is still in the air, producing the null.

Again, note that mcqueen died as soon as the scum could freely kill someone. He gunned for Sly, and of the neighbors, he was going town on BL.

I voted Bunny for her quick town call on Pine in the QT (pre-game).

Again, Kise also gunned for BL.

I can recall thinking that Mcqueen, TwistedSpoon Pine and Mastin were town, and after reading I'm going to put chkflip on that list as well. (This is his town play.)

Again, PM was NK'd, and if memory serves, that Pine read held the entire game. He thought Pine was being stupid, dense, and an idiot (callsigns of his scumplay, mind you), but town for the whole game.

Kise-BBMolla interactions on Page 3 kinda make me feel like they did have a QT together.

Twisted was town for his laid back attitude and I don't know, just the way he spoke and scumhunted rang off as extremely town.

Mcqueen was town for reasons I forget but I remember him being really, really freaking obvious town.

Mastin was a town lean because the whole "i'm gonna catch the whole scum team d1 with my crazy analysis" is what he does as town, although I've never actually seen his scum play.

Chkflip is town. Too lazy to explain that.

Nacho was kind of town but he also had a few sketchy posts, memory says he was a leaning tow as well though.

Oh, and I think I had a scum read on Kise as well but I don't remember why. That's all for now.

My thoughts from before are still the same. Andy, Nacho, pine, Queen, PM, and Oversoul still site on my very town pile.
Others like BL and mastin aren't as town for one reason or another, but certainly shouldn't be lynched today.

Everyone else was overall null with slight suspicions on DG and sly. Perhaps Kise too my head tells me, though I can't honesty recall why.

Here's an important one. TS had his eye on me and BL, but Pine was town, and more importantly, Kise wasn't.

[mastin2]

(Oh, hey. It's Nacho's scumday as well. Heh. Happy scumday to you as well, buddy. Who woulda thought that the two people I seem to have the easiest time hydra'ing with have the exact same scumday? )

Dude, you just don't vote a climaed cop

This is also important from TS.

In fact, it's VERY important.

TS tells chkflip to abandon Lowell (town), and pursue his own scumreads (BBMolla), even if TS disagrees with them. If that's a bus, it's done in the most roundabout clever way possible, and quite frankly, could be the deciding factor alone by itself.

Yes, it was used to throw suspicion onto chkflip, but still, it's not at all anything resembling a chainsaw defense of BBMolla.

SlySly - 1 (Twistedspoon)
Damon Gant - 3 (Kise, SlySly, Mcqueen)
Pizzadudes7 - 2 (Nacho, BBmolla)
Lowell - 5 (Projectmatt, Damon, mastin, kondi, Chkflip)

And this itself is pretty telling. TS's opinion to pursue your own scumreads even if they're in the minority is backed up by his vote: SlySly, despite Lowell being the easier wagon.

Not only that, but at a time where the game was stalling and few people were active, TS was talking, actively contributing. Pine (who is fairly active on-site when he needs to be) was pretty much absent, only contributing to the apathy rather than (as TS was trying to do) stop it dead in its tracks.

And again, his pursuing of chkflip doesn't read as him setting up a mislynch--it reads as someone having seen something which looks incredibly suspicious, and following through on it, continuing his inquiries and generating content. Furthermore, it again is backed up by his pattern: attacking people who aren't popular targets. Quite the opposite, chkflip was almost universally seen as town, and TS continued his barrage against chkflip despite that.

PM pursued BBMolla here, and also pursued TS.

I'd vote Sly next since Andy isn't bringing up the obvious thing here - Sly pushing a vote on the claimed cop. But, like others have said, not sure if scum would keep pushing to eliminate a cop like this. I've had a lot of experience with scum gambits but I can't figure out an angle Slyscum would be using here, so I don't think he's a baddie.

Of note, Kise is avoiding the Sly wagon.

That nasty GF tell.

Side-note, I asked the mod way back when what the difference between a Town Traitor (SlySly) and Mafia Traitor (Kise) was; he said it was investigations, and I got the impression that SlySly was the investigation-immune one.

Of note, BL also addressed Sly in a way which doesn't look like it'd be that of a buddy. (Obviously.)

Lowell - 9 (Projectmatt, Damon, mastin, Chkflip, Kondi, Mcqueen, Oversoul, Nacho, Twistedspoon)

Note, however, that in order for TS to be town, this had to be a completely town wagon. (Yup. REALLY Sexy Sedilla aaaaaall over again. )

VOTE: Pine

Out of the blue, BBMolla votes for Pine. No previous hint of suspicion, no reason as to why, nothing suggesting BBMolla would have ever had a scumread on Pine, until this point right there. That REEKS of a coordinated bus overnight, exactly as one would expect with planning from a QT overnight.

So hey. T-Bone did not inform me this had been resumed. Nor did he prod me. At all. My first indication that this was still on was the Neighborhood QT going active.

Vote: Bunnylover

Pine's going to hate me for this, because he disagreed with DRey's point using this before strongly, but guess what this is nearly identical to?

Pine said almost the EXACT same thing in DC Universe Mafia, and was scum there. This REEKS of BS in hindsight, especially given light of it having happened with Pine as scum having done something nearly identical.

I'm happy with a BB lynch though. I never was a fan of Chimera and he's done little yesterday to convince me otherwise.
His lurking at the end of yesterday and convenient pop-up today is duly noted

VOTE: BB

And TS's opening to the day is much better, voting for BBMolla immediately.

Yay reactions.

UNVOTE:

Note that as soon as he could, he got off of Pine as well.

Pine literally had zero posts yesterday. I had not seen Pine post in this game. At all. Mind explaining to me why he was "almost certainly town"? There's no possible way you should expect me to get a townread on someone off of zero posts.

Yet the inverse is also true--there's nothing to suggest that Pine would be scum off of zero posts, especially if his story of not being informed was true--making the vote stick out even more.

And to top it all off...

TS sheeping Nacho is awful as well.

...Casting suspicion TS's way. It COULD be a bus, but my gut says it's not the way he'd be distancing from TS as his buddy.

I am a Town Neighbor. I'm neighbored with Bunnylover. Given site meta, I am quite certain that Bunny is scum. This is supported by the fact that Bunny treated me in our QT as if I were already confirmed Town even before the game started. That is not a Town reaction, Town Neighbors should be suspicious as fuck of their neighbors, especially in a two person 'hood.

Other than Bunny, my biggest suspect was Damon, but that's clearly a dead line of inquiry. I recall having strong Town reads on all participants in the Palisade hydra, except possibly Nacho. Haven't caught up yet, I'll get around to it soon. Bunny needs to die.

Again, keep this in mind.

[mastin2]

Deadline is in 5 days Mastin.

So deadline's theoretically on Sunday, but that means that real deadline's on Friday, given my lack of access on weekends. And given how I don't want to risk not being available on Friday (it could happen), that really means my deadline should be Thursday, heck, maybe even Wednesday.

Crud. Not as much time as I was hoping for. :/

[mastin2]

Very unlikely, particularly as Bunny has NOT acted in the manner I would expect from an experienced player getting a Town Neighbor PM.

Pine literally had zero posts yesterday. I had not seen Pine post in this game. At all. Mind explaining to me why he was "almost certainly town"? There's no possible way you should expect me to get a townread on someone off of zero posts.

This looks like bullshit.

You do realize we had like 20 something pages to go off with the other thread right? You are speaking as if the other thread never existed and it was impossible for Nacho to get a read on Pine from it.

Ya.

No.

VOTE: BBmolla

I am trusting Pine, but I believe he is telling the truth about Bunny who is also another good lynch.

Pine quote, important to note how he now treats the neighborhood. Oversoul Quote, shows BBMolla suspicion.

This really doesn't feel like town BB to me

"but pine did this too...." just isn't the town arguments that are characteristic of the BB i've played with.
Admittedly he's had about half as much info to analyse as the rest of us, but that's no reason to keep him alve for that sake.
And his Nacho vote is a horrible omgus.... on Nacho of all people...

The only thing working against TS in here is the fact that he didn't actually vote for BBMolla; the rest is all in his favor. It looks like someone who has begun to second-guess their initial townread, rather than a scumbuddy reluctant to bus.

Also, note the nearly identical ways BBMolla treats Oversoul and Twistedspoon; the two posts are nearly identical, as you would expect from scum addressing two separate townies.

BBmolla - 6 (Nacho, Twistedspoon, Oversoul, Chkflip, Mcqueen, Mastin)

Note also that BBMolla got to L-2 on day two, but managed to escape unharmed for literally days upon days. But it gets better.

Scum tell your buddies to hop on so I can claim.

Another gem in hindsight. This is exactly what he'd ask of his scumbuddies to do. Kise isn't on the wagon, and if TS is town, that'd mean another buddy is off the wagon. He wanted to be lynched, with his scumbuddy on the wagon. Heck, knowing BBMolla from GvE, CvL, he very well might have self-hammered had he gotten to L-1 to end the day early and rob us of our momentum, spiraling us further into apathy while giving us a false sense of security.

You don't understand the suspicion on you? You don't have to agree with it but you're coming off as if you're townier than thou, when you're not.

Why don't you just claim now? I don't think it'd be considered premature.

Oh, hi Sly.

Kise definitely knew BBMolla was scum, because here, he was basically saying bluntly, "MAN UP, YOU COWARD!" He mighta known that Sly was scum as well, given his comment there, and might have been asking Sly to do something.

This is totes scumMolla. Like, so hard it's giving me a boner from how obvious it is. With the sputtering, and brashness, and the daring us to make him claim? BL trying to cover for his mate just makes it clearer.

Vote: BBMolla

Back to L-2.

Note that Pine does pretty much exactly what BBMolla wanted at that point--getting himself closer to a lynch, and forming distancing immediately between Pine and BBMolla for instant towncred. Again, there was clearly a plan to get BBMolla lynched at some point or another. Through our paranoia, incompetence, and apathy, it took a lot longer than what the scum had planned, but the evidence looks quite strong that BBMolla meant to die, as he did in GvE, CvL.

This is so scum too. And false as well. You were ridiculously wrong about Masons, and Nacho did not claim OR softclaim Mason. The conversation arose from my claim about Neighbors, then people being idiots about how two Town Neighbors were basically Masons.

BL, BB, Slysly. Lynch to victory.

And if Pine knew Sly was scum, then this was a good way to double-distance. With Kise and himself in the clear, he could get away with doing pretty much anything he'd like and not get called out for it, coasting by on the towncred of both his neighbor claim and his distancing.

Then again...

I still prefer your lynch greatly to nacho's though.

TS was again distancing from BBMolla without applying pressure, in the way scum would. (But again, I can still see it as town, not convinced one way or the other, despite leaning scum.)

Pine, wouldn't it be more efficient for the scum to just leave you both alive with the WIFOM surronding both of you (if you are both town) since one of you will inevitably die?

Guess what happened?

The only problem with scum doing that is not everyone believe in the Town v Scum neighbor in this situation, I think only 1 or 2 people agree with it. Therefore all they will gain is killing that person, the situation on the other person won't change.

But more importantly...

[quote="kondi]Actually, VOTE: Pine, because HIS reasoning for BB attacking is crap. Specifically here:[/quote] Pointing to 291. He's right, overall, when I look at it--Pine's reasons for attacking BBMolla look incredibly fake, and the feeling is of course quite mutual, with BBMolla's attack on Pine looking just as faked.

TS continues his suspicion on chkflip, pointing out the same pattern from chkflip as on day one: going after a lesser scumread rather than the greater and more consistent scumread on BBMolla. Again, this directs attention BBMolla's way, and would not be a smart move as a scum player.

It's just that all of Chkflip's suspects so far have flipped town (except for Bb who i think will not) and I have a feeling pine will do likewise.

There's also this. He was basically stating a very reasonable and understandable perspective: that chkflip was soft-bussing BBMolla, distancing between them and trying to earn towncred while simultaneously trying to keep him alive. And from a town's perspective, that's incredibly easy to see in said situation. (It's one of the things which was my undoing in GvE,CvL after all.) From a scum's perspective, it doesn't come out nearly as naturally.

Keep in mind also that TS is on BBMolla by this point.

Vote Pine.

Again, keep in mind, mcqueen,

the person considered a Village Idiot more often than not

was the nightkill N2. Yes, he was considered widely town for his antics, but that alone would not have justified his nightkill. There HAD to be a reason, and Pine was the player he most consistently pushed for all of day two.

And note Sly's reaction. Again, he takes Pine's side in the argument.

I don't mind sacrificing my towncred with seemingly inert questions and badgering when I think I'm getting somewhere. If I wanted to look town I'd have stopped pestering you long ago, but that's only half of the game.

TS bluntly says that he's willing to sacrifice being seen as town for the sake of actually scumhunting, which he was doing when pursuing his chkflip read.

I can't make my mind up on Pine or Bunny.

Note These as well.

Oversoul, didn't you know? Sly's scum.

This game is depressingly easy. BL, Slysly, BB, kondi. One of those is a derpfuck, the other three are our scumteam.

The same scumslip as TS. (Come to think of it, he showed it before as well.) Knowing that one scum (Sly) didn't have access to the QT, thinking there's only three scum when the numbers suggest four is a pretty strong scumslip. Add to that his immediate correction, and it looks like he might have figured out that the scum have a traitor as well.

Nah, just a noob Pine slip.

And again, mcqueen's right in here, in that Pine's quite capable of faking being stupid as scum.

[mastin2]

Mod:

Could you fix the broken quote tag below

But more importantly...

This? Forgot the closing " after kondi.

[mastin2]

At the moment my mind is set on Pine, Oversoul, and Sly.
Pine - He's trying to do everything in his power to get me lynched based on meta. Wouldn't be so bad, but his whole case is based on meta which I just can't believe town would risk. But this may just be OMGUS, trying to figure out exactly what it is.
Sly - Sly and the whole Nacho thing is just weird. No one can call Nacho softclaiming, but he is strong-ho about it.

Nacho hammers home BBMolla. Note again that he's right: BBMolla voted for Pine for no reason and then backed down immediately after that.

Pine,
how confident are you that Bunnylover is scum, and what do you plan to do if Bunny is town?

Twistedspoon,
your jumping on BBmolla's wagon was insanely, insanely awkward but I'll disregard that given you towntold a bit before.

@Projectmatt: I was ~80% (<--Made up number) certain that BL was scum based simply on the "2 Neighbors = 1 Town/1 scum" paradigm right from receiving my role PM. Then he tried to buddy up to me in the pregame, treating me as if he already knew I was Town when every indication would have been, were he Town, that I were scum. Then he scummed up the pre-crash. I'm absolutely convinced that he's scum, and absolutely nothing he's said has made me question that conviction. I have no plans for him flipping Town. I suppose I'd cross that bridge when I get there, and probably get lynched for my trouble. Wouldn't blame you much for doing it, either, given my insistence on pushing the setup spec angle on BL. Like I said, not worried about it.

PE: Yeah, Nacho, I'm pretty sure you're talking to a wall there. Sly's the only one who buys his bullshit, and I don't think he can be logicked out of this. He's pot-committed.

Extremely relevent, and also has a piece on Sly.

He should have easily known that mafia wouldn't be targeting him Night 1, with a claimed cop out there. That's what disproved his argument, against my theory, that Pine exposed Bunnylover, tried to get him mislynched, so when Bunnylover flipped town, he could say, "Well, I guess we have a town-town neighbor group, after all." I did not like his very flawed argument, so I called him out on the flaws, and voted him. He needs to die.

Again, this is exactly the kind of argument which I feel has merit, but is the sort of thing which would make Pine scream, "YOU'RE RIGHT FOR ALL THE WRONG REASONS, MAN!"

@391: Actually, I hadn't read the new pages of D1 then, and didn't know that Damon had claimed. Hell, I still haven't read them. I'm using a modified replacement strategy. It's not like you ever learn much by reading what came before, and this strategy has never failed me. True story.

...Which he kinda does.

Also note BBMolla's awkward and forced distancing here.

Pine - I forgot to ask, is it possible to paraphrase or quote things from the QT or is that against the guidelines? I can't find anything regarding it in the game rules. I think it would be a gigantic help if you could paraphrase some of the things Bunny said, but yeah

I know it looked odd, but Bb lurked hard and I've already said why else I found him scum

I don't care how it looks when I'm adamant someone is mafiosi. It was hardly a wagon with only nacho on anyways.

Again, note the contrast in TS's style to Pine's. Pine is overall fairly concerned about himself, trying to stay alive and get others lynched, in stark contrast to his original gambit. TS is perfectly willing to take the criticism, if it means that he can nail the scum because of it.

410 is worth a look.

What do we get from that, as any alignment Bunny would flip? It lost steam and I'm more convinced Pine is just tunneling. Can you also explain why the wagons suck?

But note here, that Kise wants to derail the neighbor wagons, and defends Pine.

There's some distancing on page 17 as well, and again, it looks forced between Pine and BBMolla.

Note that knox had BL suspicion.

You didn't suspect me.
The first post (after T-Dog) was you calling me scum, not suspecting me as scum, but calling me scum.
You then posted (I still haven't posted), this is my interpretation of your next post, that you are not willing to change your mind about this read and that we should keep it "real".
I then post what I posted in the thread. The reason it gives me the benefit of the doubt is because nothing I said had any affect on you thinking I was scum. You already decided on the fact I was scum.
Your response was that I was trying to play a game. You state that meta states 1 member of a neighborhood will be scum. Its not you, so it must be me. You do not want to engage in any QT conversation with me unless I am cop confirmed innocent.

Please be free to correct me if I over-assumed anything or am lying about what happened in this quicktopic, which you won't because its the truth. I believe this is a pretty good accurate summary of what happened.

Arright, so your argument then is to lynch me because I've annoyed and mocked you. I could forgive it if you thought there was a Town/Scum Neighbor dichotomy and had concluded that I was the Scum Neighbor, but you're just a butthurt ten-year-old.

McQueen has absolutely no credibility in my eyes anymore, and I will be making every effort not to engage in his ego-stroking until he grows the fuck up.

Remember when I said Pine'd be screaming "RIGHT FOR ALL THE WRONG REASONS!"?

Yeah, this is when he does it. Of particular note is that, again, mcqueen died night 2. If you don't think that's important, you're crazy.

With that said, I would vote her before Pine at this point, though Pine's townieness has slipped a bit today.

Again, Sly sided with Pine.

Also relevent.

If BL didn't always play a defensive game then I'd be more tempted to see BL scum.
I'm not saying she can't be, it's just that I know she plays a similar, quiet, defensive game as town.

I'm preferring a BB, sly lynch

Again, TS pushed all the right people, in a way which looks natural.

- TS's response in #30 to BB's #29 makes me feel like they couldn't be partners.
- TS's reaction to the Cop claim in #139 feels very town. The fact that this has happened with TS before strengthens that read.

I can also buy this.

Because Pine v. BL is distracting as all hell and will not end until one of them is either lynched or killed and at this point I think it is safer to remove the distractions as early as possible to have an easier late game.

And this opinion makes him a serious threat.

Another important fact--Nacho believed Pine was town, far more so than BL, and again, died after Oversoul did.

Yeah I didn't want to go into a 1 v 1. I'm town, don't know his alignment. If I am wrong about his alignment then I know I will be lynched. Then the question of where my suspicion is coming from comes to mind. Do I think Pine is scum because he is tunneling me which is clouding my mind or is Pine scum because the way he is doing it comes from scum.

I'm giving you what you want and you decline it?
I think it was Oversoul who said it, we need to get rid of the neighbor distraction.
Pine has 2 votes, I have 7 now. Lynch me.

If you actually had 7, I'd hammer you. Self voting is not a pro-town maneuver.

Again, Sly calls BL scum over Pine, but tries to avoid pushing that lynch through.

[mastin2]

For the record--I'm getting paranoid about TS. He's been hanging around the forum, as if he's waiting for me to cast a vote, so that he can finish it off.

Basically, Pine's case on Bunny Lover is unverifable awkward setup speculation that holds no water whatsoever and no, I can easily see both of them being town. (Although BL's self vote is just ..sigh). I would STRONGLY suggest not lynching Pine. BL is an OK wagon I guess but I wouldn't be surprised if he flips town and Pine is town as well.

Twisted Spoon should stop coasting, it's really, really annoying and makes me want to second guess my town read on him.

This doesn't exactly hep it, either.

If BL is a Townie, then the logic of scum shooting one of us to cast suspicion on the other still makes sense. BL shouldn't be trying to fatalistically "get it over with" he should be trying to absorb a NK.

This is a pity play on BL's part, and an ATE to the max.

But again, there's this.

Are you really this dense, or do you just play it on TV?

If one or both of us are Town, we wouldn't have fakeclaimed Neighbors. Therefore, we are either both scum, or both actual Neighbors. Therefore, you're suggesting that we're both scum, and I'm pushing my buddy's death, when said death would result in a flip that would get me lynched too.

You try and sound logical with the reference to Occam, but you haven't actually applied any reasoning to the situation. Go back to your hole, or do something productive.

And this response to Andy was horribad.

Also relevent.

And note again, two town neighbors in this game with our already-flipped power is a little overpowered, since again, they can act as masons if they don't cast suspicion towards each other, and as Pine was so adamant about, standard site meta suggests that there'd be one scum and one town.

I have never wavered in thinking you're scum. No idea how you twisted that into anything different.

Neighbors are not always going to be Town/Scum. But most of the time, they are. Hence my initial suspicions. Then your pre-game behavior, reaction to being suspected, later odd actions, and most recently your "woe is me" massive AtE and self-vote locked me in. If you're NOT scum, you need to go back to Newbie games.

And your proposed "wouldn't scum always claim Neighbor" scenario is moronic. The problem is that when the loser of the double bus flipped, they'd flip as a non-neighbor, bringing their buddy down with them. It's like scum fakeclaiming Masons together - it can be effective, but only if they never get killed. They irrevocably lock themselves together. That's why Andycya deserves chiding, for not thinking through his suggestion. Besides, they could simply double bus the life out of one another to a very similar effect.

(Also, note the irony in the suggestion of a double-bus, considering that's EXACTLY what it looks like Pine and BBMolla actually WERE doing.)

One more vote and I will hammer.

Again, note Sly's refusal to join the BL lynch, despite pushing BL as scum for so long. Why the hesitation to lynch BL, especially when he was one of the main alternatives? The only answer I can think of is to protect Pine. It just doesn't make sense any other way.

And once people switch over to him, it seems like he's beginning to get worried.

Mastin, ask your confirmed vanilla self if you'd rather lynch a useless neighbor or a power role.

UNVOTE: Nacho

VOTE: Bunnylover

Now that the idiocy has went this far, do you want to lynch me or force scum to kill me?

Only now does he switch, when his life is in firm danger. (Also, note this is where he began to call me a VT. A claim I confirmed that day.)

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Sly

I prefer this over BL and I want to avoid a NL.

Again, protection of the neighborhood. It's as if the scum didn't want it to be broken, as if they WANTED to keep it in tact for as long as humanly possible.

Mastin, you and super sleuth mcqueen continue leading the idiot wagon to a scum win.

This was basically Sly signalling the scum to "KILL MASTIN AND MCQUEEN".

SlySly - 8(Knox, Mcqueen, Kise, Mastin, Bunnylover, Pine, Kondi, BBmolla)

Again, this is one of the main things which gives me pause about Pine being scum.
For Pine to be scum, ALL other scum must have been on SlySly, since BBMolla was the hammer, Kise was on there before that, and Pine was also present.
Simultaneously, it'd require the Lowell lynch to ALL be town, with TS as the hammer.

Whereas if my TS paranoia is justified (he's still there...watching...waiting...not saying anything......), then it's a far more reasonable two scum on the Sly lynch and one scum on the Lowell lynch.

But again.

Post coming today. I do hope so. I can't blame anyone for lynching me whilst I have a post in the making so I'll try to get one up. No excuse for my neglect of the game though.

Look at TS's willingness to accept the possibility he'll get lynched. A kinda sorta type of apathy, where he doesn't really mind if he's the one to go, having been lynched for his neglect--it's an extremely natural reaction, and something I'd expect to see from town.

Andy, are you a Miller?

There's also his whole Miller Gambit, by asking Andy about it to get reactions--and as it so happened, he was right, so this again looks fairly good for TS. Not only does the gambit not seem like something scum would do, but the fact that it ended up being RIGHT suggests that TS probably didn't think of it in a mafia QT.

[mastin2]

@Mastin & Nacho: Of those on your list (we disagree about BL, but I'll let it slide for now) I have the strongest scumread on BB, followed closely (and rising) by Chkflip (for his really scummy actions late yesterday).

Unvote
Vote: BBMolla

Ironicly enough, this is exactly what TS had been pushing for some time before.

I liked TS's way better.

But more important.

I've been going by 5-pages-at-a-time, but guess what I found?

Ehhh...that's faulty logic. I know that when I'm scum, I often pick people I don't think are going to accrue Doctors or Watchers, and I almost always pick targets that are going to make Town go "Huh?" Well, unless I have an agenda. But that's the problem with NK WIFOM.

This goldmine, which is quite frankly post-worthy by itself. He points out the flaw in going after the dead peoples' reads. (Also sort-of suggests that he doesn't want me reading mcqueen.) Beyond that, it also says that he wants people to go "Huh?" to the nightkills. Guess what we all did in response to the PM nightkill? Or in TS's case, to the BL nightkill? (I of course saw it coming.) And to some extent, the Oversoul nightkill. And of course, the mcqueen nightkill. All of which fit the modus operandi which he describes.

And beyond that--he DOES have an agenda in this game as scum: a showdown between the Palisade hydra. The idea was probably sparked by me, actually, suggesting the town bloc. After that, Pine probably got it into his head that he could narrow the game down to be just members of the Palisade hydra, but was forced to take out Oversoul and Nacho along the way, as they were threats--but after that, he wanted to get rid of all the players not members of the Palisade hydra, to play a Palisade endgame. It's the perfect Pine move, and it's exactly the kind of thing I'd expect of him. More than that, he's the only one who could really get away with it. TS certainly couldn't, and I have trouble thinking the thought of a Palisade endgame crossing his mind. It'd be less satisfying for him, because quite frankly, he hasn't been part of the Palisade hydra in over a year and probably feels far less attatched to it than any of the others, so making an endgame of it wouldn't have much of a point.

Like I said, this is pretty much one of the most condemning posts in the game, since it's painting out the exact canvas which has transpired.

[mastin2]

@TS: I'm more then sure I expressed my read on SlySly before any kind of wagon formed on him and was early on his wagon. How was I ridding it?
As for the QT, we did post. Me just saying its possible to talk, and Pine saying that 1 scum were down 2 to go and something else that wasn't important. I think it was that talking probably won't happening.

What is the point of a traitor rolecop that can't find scum?
If he could find scum, and he claimed mastin was vanilla, that either 1) sets up a 1v1 between him and a scumbuddy, or 2) fucks up any fakeclaims mastin was planning in the future. That doesn't make any sense at all, coming from a traitor perspective.

Relevent.

Note also The Pine-BBMolla interaction starting here. In particular, this.

Actually, I'd love that. Why am I scum, BB? I just read your entire ISO, and couldn't find a single reason you've posted, discounting your rant post-crash about how I didn't post at all on D1.

Yes it was a code. It was Nacho-scum attacking town twisted spoon (I inverted to throw off people) for attacking Andy-scum.

I'm still not certain whether this is a scum move of trying to white knight a person who has been getting pressure (Andy) or if it defending a buddy, but quick defense looked suspicious in my mind.

Note the TS townread.

Hi Pine

A few questions -

After Sly's scumflip do you have as much as a confident read on BL? You seem to have gone down quite a bit on your tunneling of her

Extremely important post by Matt.

@Matt: Sly flipping Traitor has zero effect on my confidence in BLscum, for obvious reasons that Oversoul mentioned. However, I'm not pushing hard on him right now because I'm having independent, errant doubts about BL. The net result is still BL=scum, but I'm very concerned about confirmation bias.

Besides, if BL is scum, he's basically a goon. I have other strong scumreads, and it's very likely they'll flip scum PR. Also, we've already identified BL as a prime candidate. He's not going anywhere

And this to me seems like a scumtastic response.

Side-note. Another thing to keep in mind: TS was rather consistently near the bottom of my townlist, and in fact was in my suspects. While Pine was as well, if my memory serves, TS was there longer and more consistently, meaning keeping me alive in endgame against Pine (who, again, I stated to be mason-like with BL) would only be a liability against him--especially when you account for Sly's rolecop on me and how many players used it to clear me. Nacho among 'em.

I would be more inclined to vote Pine over BBMolla unless something smacks me in the face with why BB is scum.

Important.

I agree with Bl somewhat (though I still find pine rather townish)

Also important, though.

However,

Bunnylover - 1 (Twistedspoon)

Again, this...is less than good for TS, especially after the above.

@Mastin:
Agree with the lack of power in town.
With 2 of my scum read flipping town, I'm willing to believe Pine is town.

While in the previous day, it had begun to form, by this point from BL, this is what solidified those thinking that the neighborhood was all-town to be in the majority.

Still pretty sure that BB is scum, but Knox probably is too, so I'll back your play Mastin.

Vote: Knox

Again, a knox mislynch would do nothing but good for Pine, as it'd land them in mylo, where Pine could easily back out of his bus on BBMolla, or push it through all the way if need be--he does, after all, keep BBMolla in his sights that day.

BL and I were able to narrow down the two remaining scum to {BB, Knox, Matt}. Matt is the least likely of the three, but we have the ability to just lynch all three of them for the win.

Unvote
Vote: Matt

And here's the critical play--again, Pine really doesn't care who he lynches, and is riding the free towncred. BBMolla is expendable, because he can lynch both Matt and knox, getting away with it, and that'd give him a free ride into lylo and beyond, to victory. I'd further speculate that by this point, Pine would know he'd be bringing TS and I into lylo, getting rid of BL once it was convenient to do so. He couldn't do that until a day before lylo, because if one of the "masons" was nightkilled, and then the other lived...it'd be rather incriminating for the living one to have dodged the nightkill.

Again, BBmolla's vote looks incredibly fake, as does Pine's response to it. (On the other hand, TS had a nearly identical response as well. )

What drunk me was trying to say is that you're pushing a lynch on old reasoning that didn't work, and you're acting like it's an obvious lynch to make. Why do you expect Pine will get lynched based off this, or even that he will come any closer to being lynched?

Again, this was a good point by Nacho.

But...

TS, why did you pop in to do absolutely nothing?

It's hard to ignore this when Nacho died that very night.

[mastin2]

although i have to wonder if a mastin/nacho/pine wagon is really an all town wagon

Very, VERY important quote, here.

Also note that again, if Pine lynched matt/knox and then the other, win right then and there.

Also note This.

Today we hand BBMolla. Tomorrow we hang ProjectMatt. The next day, we hang Knox.

Again, this looks like opening with a bus, especially since Pine doesn't actually vote for BBMolla in said post, and how come BBMolla was consistently at the top?. He doesn't vote until after I call for a change in the order, at which he is absolutely fine switching over to matt without skipping a heartbeat.

However, in Pine's favor, TS was around on the forum but was not playing in this game at all. (He was playing chess at the time. Yes, I stalked him. )

What was the reason for eliminating TwistedSpoon as scum?

Also important.

However,

I don't remember, I just remember that it was pretty clear. The Palisade team is all-Town, possible exception of Mastin. Beginning to suspect him for being so damned agreeable.

Here he is already setting me up as being scum (despite the clear evidence against it), and leaves open the TS door because there's no reasoning on him being town.

Again, this is where I call Pine out on not putting his money where his mouth is, and again, his weak-as-hell response was this:

Thought I already had, actually.

Unvote
Vote: BB

And after this, PM (who participated in the BBMolla lynch) ends up dead.
BL (who also participated in the BBMolla lynch) also ends up dead eventually--and I don't think this is coincidence. It's as if the members of that wagon were being picked off, to leave TS open and exposed. Again, the person who has more to benefit from this is Pine. (That said, I can see it as being TS, eliminating people he sees as being seen likely as town for being on that lynch.)

Pine is almost conf. town after BB interactions and everything else

Again, if TS is scum, keeping Pine around (as opposed to BL) is almost completely suicidal.
Whereas if TS is town, Pine keeping HIM around is an easy key to a quick victory.


Also note that I think Pine has a kinda sorta "audience for one" view of lylo--you need only target one person and get them on your side in order to win. You can see evidence of this not only in today (via him immediately gunning for me, playing to TS's favor), but also yesterday, again with the target of TS:

This was the only post in the QT last night. BL didn't respond. It's actually rekindling some BL suspicion, as I suspect I may have been the bodyguarded target last night.

So again, the neighbors are not confirmed town to him, anymore, and beyond that, this is playing to TS, since TS said Pine was town but clearly wasn't as sold on BL being town. In other words, Pine was saying everything he needed to get on TS's good side, here, and it also shows some backtracking from Pine, via him going back on the neighbors-confirmed-town stance. Furthermore, if the neighbors aren't confirmed town, and BL's a dead confirmed town neighbor, where does that leave Pine?

It leaves him as having exposed himself, via all the hard attacks he made for the neighborhood having one scum in it.

Matt protect Mastin/Myself (60%/40%). Edit: After reading Mastin ISO, I'm 90% sure Matt protected Mastin due to Mastin last post.
I don't think Matt would have picked anyone else other myself and Mastin, the only other person I would consider would be Pine but looking at his interaction the past two days I doubt Matt would protect you.

Truthfully with 5 alive ruling out Mastin as somewhat obvious town and Pine and I as Neighbors who should be Masons it leaves Twistedspoon and Knox replacement.
Vote will be placed on Knox replacement so far.

This quote leans both ways, though. Clearly, BL thought I was town. But BL was hinting at some Pine suspicion, not really considering that Matt could protect Pine. But on the other hand, BL was clearly for the "lynch knox/TS, and if they flip town, lynch the other", giving TS motive to kill BL as well.

forgive me if I fail to recall this, but why are you masons now?

Again, TS is clearly expressing suspicion, and mainly towards BL.

Because of the Traitor flips. Scum Neighbor in a 2-Neighbor setup is a negative utility to scum, like Miller or similar is for Town. Traitors are also somewhat negative utility. The scum setup is probably 2 Traitor PRs and 2 Goons, so having one of those goons further disadvantaged would be unreasonable for scum.

Ergo, BL and I are pretty close to Masons.

And again, Pine's quick to respond to TS. But beyond that, what happened to BL suspicion having been somewhat rekindled, if--again, as he states here--they're supposed to be confirmed-town?

So it seems mastin is might be confirmed town due to Sly's investigation. I would say that his playing seems off sometimes, with flipflopping on some players without providing reasoning. Generally pro-town though.

I can't find much in Twistedspoon's post history to take issue with.

Pine seems town, so I'd vote BL over him. Also, with how many town PR's there have been, I want to vote BL as the scum part of the neighborhood.

If you order this, it basically goes Mastin>TS>Pine>BL as the strength of his reads, towniest to scummiest.

It makes zero sense for scum to kill Matt. He was obvious mislynch fodder, and probably would have gone next.

A reminder: Pine ADMITTED that as scum, he'd make kills which make the town go, "...Huh?", and what kill would do that moreso than Matt's? There pretty much wouldn't be any. It fits perfectly into his kill pattern.

And again, BL was primed for a mislynch. BL hammered split, without a second's hesitation, reeking of scum. TS was clearly suspicious, and I clearly was worried I'd just lost to a BL-Pine scumteam.

The ONLY player defended BL as town at that point?

Obviously. Which is why Bunny's hammer is obviously not a scumhammer.

Pine.

And again. No matter how many times I run over the scenario...Pine has the least to lose by killing BL, and probably the most to gain. It fits perfectly into his pattern, and more than that, it fits Pine's ego to want a Mastin-TS-Pine endgame, where he can come up victorious.

TS as scum could gun for BL. BL would gun back, but TS would have a shot, and mastin-paranoia would still be viable. If I died, it's even worse, as he's got both neighbors thinking that the other is town, against him.
TS as scum can't as realistically hope to win against me and Pine. Pine sits in the nearly-confirmed pile, and I do as well--so despite BL's suspicion on him, shooting BL is still shooting himself in the foot.

Pine as scum can gun for anyone. Shoot me, and BL-TS fight is a guaranteed victory. Shoot TS, and Pine can possibly team up with BL to get me lynched. Shoot BL, eliminate a variable which could act against expectations (such as expressing Pine suspicion), and it sets up a TS-me fight, perfect because I've been suspicious of TS a lot of the game, expressed extreme suspicion at his absence two days ago, and as you're clearly seeing here, am very concerned that I'm making the wrong call about. And more than that, because TS sees Pine as close-to-confirmed-town, it sets TS up against me.

So basically, in any scenario, Pine has the upper hand. But the BL kill gives him the best shot (as it eliminates the largest variable, the neighbor partner) and also gets what he wants: a personal victory against the entire Palisade hydra.

I don't believe in voting blocs anyways. In retrospect it was a good idea for me to have declined that invitation

But this is actually false; TS accepted the invitation into the bloc, and actually was part of it for a while.

But again...

What the fuck are you talking about, Mastin? Stating all of that and leaving it open-ended, not saying who it was, looks like you want one of the two of us to walk into some kind of trap, or one of us to jump to a conclusion, because you were just ambiguous enough to apply it to either.

Leaning strongl to Mastinscum now.

This was quite the scummy response as well.

Then again, TS was basically sheeping Pine with regards to the above. And he's wishy-washy, in that he was sheeping Pine, but now is also slightly sheeping me by saying that I brought up some very good points against Pine.

[mastin2]

Should be leaving, now, but I can give you my overall impression--

Many pieces of information scattered throughout the thread subtly suggest that TS is the last scum. There's enough evidence to create a picture against him, and the scum thought process IS there, but it's incredibly weak. If TS has been playing a scum game, it's been a very strong scum game, with very few gaps in it. He's almost completely dodged mention by any of the scum, but that's a double-edged sword, and I can't really make a call one way or the other with it. His reads overall have been solid, but he sometimes goes about it in a weird way. But in general, overall, with his way of interacting, his far more natural tone when posting, his easy-to-follow thought process which generally makes a lot more sense as town than as scum...

...He looks like if he were scum, he'd have earned the win.

Pine on the other hand...while the pieces of information suggesting TS is scum are scattered, for Pine, they form a rather clear picture from start to finish. While I'm deathly afraid some confirmation bias plays into that, I still feel like it overall makes the most sense--the pieces suggesting Pine are town are the ones scattered all over the place, rather than the pieces suggesting he is scum. There have been plenty of smaller towntells, but none of them which can't be faked, compared to plenty of things which overall feel like they're classic Pine-scum plays. While by no means a weak scum player, Pine's play this game if scum looks like it's been a little lacking. The best thing in his favor is the BBMolla stunt. He's been consistently the focus of the scum (again, double-edged sword) with two of the three flipped defending him hardcore (and also trying to keep BL alive, which by proxy defends him), but the third would have to be powerbussing him, and have it be mutual. His reads haven't really appeared that solid, his play has seemed somewhat opportunistic, he's been pushing all the wrong people, and in general, his tone (especially in the afforementioned BBMolla fight) comes across as incredibly artificial and forced, as if he's going through the motions without actually believing much of what he says. His play makes picture-perfect sense as scum, and I can follow it start to finish. The kills fit his modus operandi, and he has the motive for each and every one of them. All in all, his play just feels like it's scum-play.

But it's not as clear-cut as I once thought it was. If I had to give it percentages, it'd be between 75/25 and 60/40.

Yet when it comes down to it...I think that part of the choice in the end will be who I'd lose to. And in that contest, it's no contest at all. If I lose to TS, I'll have felt slightly bad in having made the wrong call and been fooled by his tactics...but not too bad, as TS clearly has been playing strong, and looking pro-town overall. If I lose to Pine, then considering that's where my instincts are going, I'd feel horrible. The whole dead QT would rally against me for not having followed through with it. (Okay, so they'll do that if I vote for Pine and TS is the last scum, anyway, but they'd do it MORE so if TS is town and Pine is scum. ) And above all else, if Pine is scum, he'd be able to gloat at that one final victory.


I've run out of time, but I'll review the evidence tomorrow. Maybe cast my vote then as well.

[mastin2]

Dammit Mastin, why do you have to throw off scumtells in LyLo >_>

Do you know how many people think they can read me but actually turn out to be really bad at it?

A lot.

Oversoul's done it, Nacho did it (until POE made him realize he was wrong), and now you've done it. If you thought that me

being careful in

lylo

was a scumtell, you obviously don't know me nearly as well as you think you do. Yes, I was being noncommittal, and for dang-good reason. Had I opened up the day as I originally thought I was going to (by voting you), it would have been an immediate loss rather than an eventual one. When I did reading, though, I had some immediate pause about TS. A few things caught my eye, and I was still thinking things through last night. Would I still have voted you? In the end, probably, yes. But I would have done so only after having done my research, checked the facts, double-checked things, check my Thoghts While Isolated as both town and scum, review things with that in mind, and make the conclusion that either you had been set up since the very beginning (mcqueen and beyond) and TS playing a strong game aside from the lurking...or that you were playing a typical Pine scumgame, and that TS was what he appeared to be, legitimate town.

Again, I did exactly what I needed to do: I opened thinking I was going after you, Pine, but rather than recklessly charging into things, I looked, thought things through, and began to second-guess my original assumptions. Exactly, y'know, what I SHOULD have been doing. Again, it likely would have led to the same result, because again, TS did play an amazingly strong game aside from lurking, but still...in what realm is me being cautious in lylo a scumtell? In Sexy Sedilla, I voted at 5 am on the day of the deadline, having pulled an all-nighter, and in the end, it was still 51/49 Zephr/Oversoul with no clear winner, without me having finished, and with the ultimate deciding factor (if memory serves) being who I'd have less shame in having lost to. What that means is that I took the whole day to decide, I was doing research, I was reading page after page, and ultimately the all-nighter, AGONIZING over the decision, showing EXTREME caution and REALLY not wanting to screw it up for the town. (Mind you, I went into that day thinking I'd be the mislynch, since I entered a 1V1 with someone who flipped town, and had been insisting strongly that I'd be willing to lynch myself if he flipped town, and was dumbfounded that Zephr and Oversoul crossvoted.)

I wasn't "attacking" both of you. I was analyzing. And I wasn't talking to either of you. I was really talking to the graveyard/myself, because again, I figured that when it came down to it, my vote would be the deciding factor one way or another. You two crossvote, I'd have the hammer. Neither of you vote, my vote either ends the game if I choose wrong, or begins the 1V1 (in which the true fighting begins, and THEN I begin talking to the confirmed town). I didn't think that the scum would make it easy on me and vote me. And as it turned out, I was right about that. (But I was wrong about my vote being the deciding factor.)

Again, if you looked at Sexy Sedilla, you'd know that I did pretty much the exact same thing there. I abandoned my QT, and was posting pretty much entirely in-thread, dumping wall after wall, going over the result of my analysis time after time, trying to get a solid idea on which way to go. Same thing was happening here. Same exact tone, same exact everything. This is just how I play lylo. You've not seen it often, because it doesn't come up often. But when I do, I know that a lot rests on my shoulders, that my actions have the weight of the entire game on them, that my decision could make the difference between a win and a loss.

I feel like Mastin is exhibiting knowledge that a townie shouldn't have.

AKA, I

asked the mod and

he responded to my PMs

. Any one of you could have done the same and gotten the exact same info that I got.

Also, on the modkills--Kise was seen as obv-town for so much of the game that his modkill probably actually INCREASED our chances of winning. Granted, we lost two obv-town (Andy and chkflip) from it, along with some third player I forget, but short of Kise's replacement being a complete VI and blowing his towncred, he never woulda died otherwise, meaning we would have lost a lot faster than we did.

[mastin2]

Speaking of QTs...

http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/HHrvMGyifk4

[mastin2]

Again, the walls weren't for the living. (Except me, and obviously, I read my own walls.)

They were for the dead, and for me. So that the dead could follow along with my train of thought if they'd like, and I'd have all my notes in one place. (For the most part, I had the entire game pretty much summed up on page 35, with a little bit at the end of 34.) When I need to be, I can cut down on the walls.

I didn't need to in this game, because I wasn't talking to TS or Pine.

Had I gotten it right, and had I needed to speak to Pine as confirmed town, you'd be dang-sure that I WOULD have cut down on my walls, and been as concise as possible. (That, or make a single long wall along with a summary.) But that didn't happen, and most likely never would have. We'll never know, now, though, will we, because

someone

jumped the gun and didn't bother to do their research on how I play lylo as town. *grumble*

[mastin2]

(Speaking of Sexy Sedilla...

NOTE TO SELF:
Never, ever, EVER let myself live to a 3P lylo again.

EVER.

I'd rather be lynched Day One than face the pressure of this again.

...This is why I don't like lylo. )