Open 367: JK9 (Mafia Win)


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Post Post #5 (isolation #0) » Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:10 am

Post by chauchaudotcom »

Hm. So prior to the destruction of the site I posted a response to Muffin's request to walk through my thought process throughout the game. Seems like it was lost so I'll re-go through everything again as best as my memory can serve.

First off though:

emp wrote:Chauch: Summarize the recent game for me. Also, why shouldn't I vote you?


Because we are in lylo and I am town. If you vote me then scum win. What are your reasons for wanting to vote me?

As per your first question, it goes along with Muffin's so. Here we go.

-------

So initially I thought Painted was scum. Which I did indicate early on. His fluffy posts and pure focus on numbers seemed like he was dodging the spotlight with theory talk. Which I believe I did mention before too. But then there was one post he made that struck me. It's the one where he mentioned that not the whole town hast to be convinced of the plan, only the two PR roles. I had been looking for scum, but I realized by that post that I might have stumbled across the PR instead. I still felt like his posts were suspect so I kept looking at him, as well as any others who I thought would be suspect.

What really got me thinking was when DP posted their thoughts about the PR outting themselves. That coupled with Emp and SA's odd read on painted, I began to think that perhaps I wasn't the only one thinking it. DP, especially, reiterated the fact that the PR had already given themselves away with tells. I at the time, read that as DP having the same feelings about Painted as me. But, that being said, I am also not so confident in my read as some of the other folk. I didn't want to ignore the possibility of Painted being a scum faking all these tells.

So, I went after the next person I thought was most suspicious, Josh. Honestly, I can't really say much other then this was an epic fail on my part. I felt like Josh was holding back, a lot. And because of it I thought he was scum. I totally hadn't considered the possiblity that he was a PR. =/ And when he claimed I was seriously disheartened. But because of this it also made me reconsider Painted. I had already outted one PR and I didn't want to risk losing the second too, all on day one. Which is why i voted for DP instead.

DP was, in my book, a for sure town. The way he played, his aggressive style, etc. It fits a townie moreso then a PR role, mainly because he was very 'in your face' about everything. Essentially, I didn't want to risk potentially outting both prs on d1 so I went with a DP lynch instead (given that was our only other option at that point).

Moving on, what really confirmed the Painted PR was the night actions. Josh was not protected. The only person who indicated very clearly that josh would not be protected was Painted. And given painted's reaction on being almost lynched D1 + the night actions I was almost positive he was the PR. To add on he softclaimed a jail on SA as well. Which led into my suspicion of Muffin. But I wanted a massclaim first. I thought if Painted claimed JK, then Muffin would surely be the one to claim scum. Because Painted, the entire game, was Muffin's number one pick. The only reason I could think of why was if Muffin saw Painted's 'tells' and either 1. Muffin was the JK and saw Painted fakeclaiming or 2. Muffin was scum and saw Painted PR and wanted to day lynch him. (An afterthought, I should have considered teh posssiblity that Muffin was town and genuinely thought Painted was scum. But at the time it really hadn't occured to me because I felt Painted was very overt about being a pr. In hindsight, it was a poor assumption on my part.)

But that is why I kept pushing the massclaim. I thought either way we would have gotten a confirmed scum and it would have been worth the trade. With one confirmed scum, even if we lost the PR, it would make finding the last scum a lot easier (given you now have scum relationships to analyze). Which is also in part why I was so sure Muffin was scum. I genuinely believe Muffin is a good ms player. That being said, it may have been unreasonable for me to think that just because of that, he would catch onto Painted being a PR. I just felt like if he had seriously been watching Painted posts for so long he would have noticed the same things I did. This was also because I felt DP caught it, and emp and sa did as well. But then D2 I realized I was wrong about SA and emp 'getting' it. And perhaps it was naive of me to assume that others would have caught the same thing.

And then...Painted claimed VT. Which, ultimately, was the second and final blow to my confidence. I thought was completely plausible and made me feel hopeful that town could still win despite accidentally outing the first pr. And..I turned out to be..wrong? =/ Yea. So, at that point, I just didn't know what to think anymore. All my reads were pretty much shot and everything I had with the game so far was gone. =/ So, not much to say there other then the fact that Painted made me angrier then anything after he flipped and it turned out I wasn't wrong.

Which finally brings us to here and now. I don't know who the heck is scum and who isn't anymore.

But with the recent (as in before the crash) back and forths between muffin and I, I realized I may have been barking up the wrong tree with Muffin, as I was basing a lot of my case along the assumption that it was plainly obvious Painted was a PR. Was I the only one who saw this?

And next, I remember before the crash I actually started making a case against Mist. Mist has been very on the dl all game and refuses to give reasonings for votes even when questioned. I recall asking her d2 directly about one of her votes and getting a 'nope' response of sorts. The only subsequent posts she has made is her case against DP which let me to think that perhaps she is posting that was in particular so that when she does post anything of subsequent content, it would seem so much better relative to her other posts, hence we would write her off our lists. I'm not sure if I'm just overthinking again.

But, I am going to go through everything again and re-look at AP and Emp too. Because I'm essentially having to start from scratch again.

SO.

Yea.

I think that was as much as I can remember about what I had posted previously. But feel free to ask me more about anything that happened previously in case I forgot to talk about it.
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Post Post #9 (isolation #1) » Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:31 am

Post by chauchaudotcom »

In post 6, Agent P wrote:my thought process was far simpler...who in my opinion has done least to help the town through the game.

Short answer, its Chau, and that is where my vote will sit. Mist is running a close second


Wow. I don't even.. =.=
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Post Post #11 (isolation #2) » Wed Mar 21, 2012 12:28 pm

Post by chauchaudotcom »

In post 10, Empking wrote:I don't see the problem. You'll have to explain.


Because I don't see how anyone here has been actually helping town given we've mislynched twice.

And to be put on the uselessness scale even under Mist is encouraging really. Makes me totally feel good about myself. ^^b yea.

Emp, who's your most likely scum atm?
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Post Post #16 (isolation #3) » Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:01 pm

Post by chauchaudotcom »

Given Mist has nearly been a second on everyone's list all game. And, we have two scum with zero possibility of them having been a pr. What say you guys to a pursuit in a possible Mist lynch today?
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Post Post #19 (isolation #4) » Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:49 am

Post by chauchaudotcom »

Your confirmation bias is working great.

Mist is and has been sketch all game, regardless of his current inactivity. I'm not going to given him a pass just because of that. Ignoring the two just because they're inactive is foolish and also assuming that scum are not in the inactives. Instead of focusing on that you should be looking at all five and pulling from that pool. It's a higher chance given you're eliminating one layer of abstraction.

No, I'm not saying blind lynching an inactive because they are, inactive. I am saying compare all players based off what has happened up to this point in the game. We have what...days of information laid out for us. In my opinion, the history is going to be a more reliable source because that's stuff that they can't change and behavioral patterns can be seen. Plus I was, honestly, trying to be pretty optimistic in hoping they would come back soon but I guess that's pretty foolish. So I'll just return to twiddling my fingers and waiting until deadline passes and we lose.

Mod: Status on prods and thoughts on potential replacements and/or other solutions proposed?
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Post Post #23 (isolation #5) » Fri Mar 30, 2012 8:58 am

Post by chauchaudotcom »

If neither of you want to do replacements, modkilling the inactives is really our only option. I imagine replacements at this point is probably a no go since this game has dragged. So I'm fine with option 2.
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Post Post #26 (isolation #6) » Fri Mar 30, 2012 11:39 am

Post by chauchaudotcom »

Sounds good to me.

Shouldn't have doubted myself about muffin before. Was wrong about Mist though...hmm.. Need to go through the old files again.
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Post Post #29 (isolation #7) » Sun Apr 01, 2012 1:39 pm

Post by chauchaudotcom »

Is there any reason aside from sheer laziness why we're ignoring the new information that the scum flip gave us? It seems like looking at the voting/suspicion movements in association to Muffin would make more sense if we want to do this right.

AP, is there any reason you are so for sure Emp is not scum?

But man, reading through these cached files is hell.

Page 12
Muffin wrote:OK, so I've slowly been rereading this in between my other games.

unvote
VOTE: mcqueen

I think chau, emp and dashie are town. Also getting newbtown vibes from joshua, but eh, not enough that I'd call him a town read.

Scum reads on mcqueen and Painted.

Went through mcqueen's posts and actually read the content and there's ... really no content there. The questions he asks mostly serve no purpose and he doesn't seem to actually have any reads.

I'm not sure why some people seem to think Painted is town. 90% of his posts have been useless setup spec IIoA (which is all too easy to fake as scum instead of actually scum hunting) and the cases he's made so far have either been lazy or opportunistic. The recent dashie vote just reeks of lazily making a case on someone without really analysing the content of their posts. His early emp vote was no different.

Mist I'm sort of conflicted about. She's being useless and the unusual 'change of playstyle' as an excuse is really bleh. Kind of just putting her on a shelf and labeling it "to be dealt with later".

sleepless I'm kinda null on right now. His recent posts gave me mild town vibes.


page 22
Muffin wrote:VOTE: painted

I was going to write a big catchup wall but then I went into cbf mode. If there's something in particular you want to ask me about, ask.

For now, keeping it simple.

town: dashie, chau, emp, josh (josh is by far the weakest, I remember thinking his early posts looked town, probably need to read him in ISO)
scum: painted
I don't have a strong enough read one way or the other on mist/agent/sleepless


Are the two I found with his read layouts. So Emp town, AP from scum to unknown. Initially I was thinking that a scum Muffin is more likely to buss his partner. His vote on mcq seems weird given his case for Painted seems stronger than the mcq one. But I also see that during that time mcq had a wagon on him so it might have just been an easy lynch thing.

But I also feel that in terms of posts AP's has been most consistently town-ish. Reaction after being L-1'd/etc etc. is all very town-like.

As per Emp, posts are sporadic sometimes and votes likewise. Switches opinions very quickly and jumps from wagon to wagon. I had him off my list because of the massclaim bit, which I am considering if it might have been a gambit on his part from the beginning.

That being said looking through the votes, neither was ever on the same wagon as Muffin it seems. Since Muffin voted for McQ once then spent the rest of the time on Painted.

But what's interesting is that at one point they were both trying to push a wagon on the other. And now AP is sure that Emp is town. So I want to know AP's reasonings behind that first.
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Post Post #31 (isolation #8) » Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:40 am

Post by chauchaudotcom »

I can see your reasoning behind it. But I'm not scum. So by your argument you would be the last scum.

I would see it more of a confirmed tell if Muffin had posted, then emp, then Muffin again. But after emp's post emp didn't post anything until 8pm. But there's no guarantee that Muffin was still on the thread after emp posted. Emp's next post wasn't until 8pm that day too.

I can't see an AP scum openly clearing an Emp and Muffin team though. It would narrow down the scum buddy pool if Muffin did end up being caught. Is actually a lot more town oriented thinking. So in short, I think AP's more likely to be town and Emp's the last scum.

Vote: Emp
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Post Post #33 (isolation #9) » Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:35 pm

Post by chauchaudotcom »

Emp is pretty much confirmed last scum. AP logged on after my last post and didn't hammer Emp. So yup.
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Post Post #36 (isolation #10) » Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:56 am

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Nope I'm town. GG.
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Post Post #40 (isolation #11) » Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:16 am

Post by chauchaudotcom »

Thanks a ton for modding Zeek. I know it was difficult on your part given the crash and disappearance of almost half the player pool.

That being said I want to apologize to the players for my short temper throughout the game. I have a tendency to be very overbearing and start snapping when I get frustrated so I hope no one took anything personality.

Other then that I really got nothing much to say. Painted was a big wtf for me and I was pretty much a longer after RD died so yea. The end. =[
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Post Post #41 (isolation #12) » Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:19 am

Post by chauchaudotcom »

loner* not longer. Wooooooooo!

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