Open 392 - Friends & Enemies & Enemies -Corporate Espionage

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Darkling_Perhaps for being indecisive.

[havingfitz]

v/LA until Monday

[havingfitz]

Back from v/LA. Will post asap.

[havingfitz]

UNVOTE: I'll get a vote out later today. Busy ATM and on phone so slightly restricted.

[havingfitz]

Bitch it was a joke.

VOTE: raspberrylicious

[havingfitz]

I think trevor may be scummy after reading his iso.

He's STILL voting darkling after voting hime for quote "two odd foses"

And now he says darkling is town. And he doesn't unvote. HMMMM

If you read his ISO...then why do you think he is STILL voting darkling? HMMMMMM?
Actually reading his ISO (and the last votecount) would have clued you in to where he was actually voting.

FOS

Kcda for his defense of raspberry (despite whatever raspberry's might be) and effort to drum up nonexistent cases.

[havingfitz]

Post v/LA-RL-~LYLO game impaired participation catch up in process. Will contribute asap.

[havingfitz]

Wow...I was catching up from page 5 and just got to the D5 surprise ending. Too funny.

At least I can say I was leaning towards voting kcda.

I think there is at least two scum minimum in the 4 raspberry votes that came before mine (Trevor, BB, drmy & kassadin).

[havingfitz]

OK, unfortunately mafia and wolves are bad shots. A crosskill or two would have been nice.

Re: Trevor's analysis - agreed....we need to get mafia. Lynching the remaining wolf would hand mafia the game. As for your town reads on Shotgun and Whiskers...those mean nothing to the rest of us (at least to me). How do you have Shotgun as obvious town?

Prior to the NK's I had BBMolla leaning town so I believe his mason claim. A counter claim would be interesting but I do not anticipate one. And since I am not CC'ing him I'm essentially claiming VT. My other pre-NK town reads were on Whiskers and Trevor with scum presumed to be within DK, Shotgun, Darkling and kass. So my reads suck.

I think it is funny that Kcda proposed kills to his partner and to mafia and neither side took his suggestion. I know it is a lot of WIFOM but I can not see Kcda recommending the lone remaining wolf as one of the NKs (ie I do not think the wolf is Whiskers, Trevor or Obv BBMolla).

I find it hard to believe the mod would introduce the wifom of allowing a missing player throughout the night. With no DK it would be a logical assumption to think that he could not be the last werewolf and therefore he is either mafia or town.

Mod....if a player has a night action and does not perform it...does the action occur randomly or not at all?

If the action can occur randomly then DK could still be the wolf. I hope the answer is no as it would be nice to narrow the field a bit.

In summary...I believe BBMolla and therefore FMPOV there are 3 scum amongst Trevor, DK, Whiskers, and Shotgun.

I do not think the werewolf is among Trevor and Whiskers.

For me the Mafia pool includes - DK, Trevor, Whiskers and Shotgun, and Fitz For me the Wolf pool includes - DK (pending mod's answer), Shotgun, and Fitz

(I include myself in both to avoid everyone else repeating the lists for the sake of including me.)

Does anyone disagree with these two pools of scum candidates?

IMO, since we don't want to "hand mafia the game" we should target players that stand a decent chance of NOT being a wolf. So for me that means Trevor and Whisker (and DK if there are NOT random actions in a player's absence).

One other thing to consider is a No Lynch. If BB is not countered he is confirmed town. I'm not sure scum would target him and they might try for the crosskills. Mafia would have a 33% of hitting the wolf while the wolf would have a 50% chance of hitting scum.

So the odds would be favorable to getting rid of mafia. They could still both hit town (the same or different) but I don't feel like trying to figure out those odds or their benefits. Just throwing that out there for thought.

I could be wrong in discounting Whiskers and Trevor as possible wolves because of kcda's mention of them, but that would be some risky WIFOM to be putting your partner on the chopping block so I think my assumption has merit.

tl:dr;

Agreed that mafia is the target and therefore I would target Trevor or Whiskers (or DK pending mod's reply). As I was leaning town on both of them I hope there are no random actions as I would like to add DK to the list of candidates. If there are random actions I would need to do some hard reading over Trevor and Whiskers.

[havingfitz]

Thanks mod.

Ok...DK can't be the wolf....unless he happened to be online during our night timeframe. So he's more likely to be mafia (or town) than a wolf.

[havingfitz]

@ Shotgun...I don't see the problem. I was leaning town on Trevor yesterday. He was in a group I felt contained scum but that was based on VCA while my suspicions of him today are based on PoE following the NKs and the mason claim.

Now that DK is even more likely to not be wolf he's probably at the top of my suspect list.

[havingfitz]

What happens if we lynch DK and he flips town? Is that an instant town loss? I don't think so.

Best best case is he is mafia.

If he flips town the best outcome would be scum cross kills which would leave us in LYLO with 2 town and 1 mafia...with BBMolla confirmed. So 50-50 chance at the win.

If he flips town mafia or wolf could one or both hit town..probably the same townie. Don't feel like figuring those scenarios out.

Worst case would be DK flip town and mafia and wolf take out the last two town. But that WOULD result in a mafia win cause they could just lynch the wolf. So based on that I think BBMolla is practically guaranteed to survive. So actually worst case would probably be DK flip town and both scum hit the same townie. That would leave confirmed BBMolla against 2 mafia and one wolf and the game would hinge on BBMolla's ability to vote vote for mafia over wolf. But wait...it would be 2mafia,1wolf,1mason. Mafia wouldn't vote itself...the game would go to a no lynch? Then there WOULD be cross kills and it would end 1mafia.1mason. Is that a town loss? FFS!

Someone else post their thoughts. ugh.

[havingfitz]

Follow on from my post 289 thoughts.

Unless people think Kcda was throwing his partner under the bus with his pre-lynch comments I can not see Trevor or Whiskers being a wolf. Kcda also called out BBMolla and he appears to be a confirmed Mason.

So IMO Whiskers and Trevor are only candidates for Mafia. I do not think DK/Psyche is the remaining wolf because of their ~absence during last night's activities. So to recap...(and once again I include myself for completeness)

Likely pool of mafia: Trevor, Whiskers, DK/Psyche, Shotgun, Me

Likely pool of wolves: Shotgun, Me.

Confirmed town: BBMolla. (BTW BB...wth with the lynch Fitz post? Where is that coming from?)

FMPOV that points to Shotgun as the last wolf. Shotgun...are you the last wolf?

As we should not be targetting the wolf today we should be avoiding Shotgun (and me...primarily because I am town but unbiasedly becuase I'm still a wolf option).

So IMO the only options for a lynch today are Trevor, Whiskers, and Psyche. I was leaning town on Trevor and Whiskers before the last three flips occurred so my preference today would be Psyche...but her posting is much better than DK's (aside from the fact her read on me is correct) so I need to look all three of them over again. I meant to have looked Trevor and Whisker's over again by now but RL and gameload has interrupted. I'll try to get the three of them sorted out in my mind in the next day or so.

tl:dr:

Shotgun is likely the wolf and we should be targetting one of these three players as mafia: Trevor, Whiskers, Psyche

[havingfitz]

OK...I have to start this post off with an apology. I did not thoroughly read Psyche's Trevor case until this morning. This was mostly due to RL Tuesday night and then the limitations of phone reading/posting yesterday. Following my 349 post where I reiterate my position on who is mafia and who is a wolf, Psyche's response gave me cause to go back and read his case more closely.

I have to say...it was very well written and thought out. I love the catch where Trevor uses 'x' to find one player scummy while at the same time using 'x' to find another player town. I'm sure it has been done before but not in any games that I recall...at least not pointed out so clearly. I read that and a smile just broke out on my face. Well done.

That said...while your case for Trevor being a werewolf does in fact point to him being scum of some sort, the fact you base his alignment on your interpretation of Kcda's WIFOM puts your case on him being a werewolf in the same realm of possibility as my PoE based mafia lean on him...also due to Kcda's WIFOM but just from another viewpoint.

And no Shotgun...I am not scum, wolf of mafia.

Sooooo:

I am of the opinion that Trevor, if scum, is likely to be mafia Psyche is of the opinion that Trevor, if scum, is likely to be wolf

I am of the opinion that Shotgun, if scum, is likely to be wolf Psyche is of the opinion that Shotgun, if scum, is likely to be mafia

I am of the opinion that Whiskers, if scum, is likely to be mafia Psyche is of the opinion that Whiskers, if scum, is likely to be mafia

I assume Shotgun is of the opinion that Trevor is a wolf as well since he is going to go against my read on him (regardless of his true alignment)

As we are screwed if we hit the wolf today it is in our best interest to try and avoid those more likely to be a wolf...at least until after one mafia has been eliminated.

The one common read points to Whisker as one of the mafia.

The only thing I need to do is resolve in my mind that Psyche isn't mafia. We ~know he isn't wolf based on the wolf nk taking place but is there anything ruling him out as mafia? His posting is so much better than DK that it's almost enough to take away from the suspicions DK's play incurred. But at the same time, the quality of Psyche's posting/analysis would also indicate competence capable leading us down the wrong path. I started an ISO of Trevor yesterday following my post 349 and I was starting to lose the town lean I had had on him so I think my efforts today are better served doing an ISO on DK/Psyche and Whiskers.

ATT I will say I'm leaning Psyche town and leaning towards a Whiskers vote.

[havingfitz]

Whiskers ISO: Post 36 - What I assume is an RVS on Luckyjt and a serious FOS on Kass. (which I find curious given they were the N1 and N2 mafia kills.

Post 78 - Time to do ISO's? Really? At the start of page 4?

Post 82 - Gives Shotgun some props, bashes kass a little. Overall a good post and good scumhunting in hindsight....wolf hunting in hindsight. Notes Kcda's changing views towards Kass.

Post 103 - Another good scum (wolf) hunting post here. As Whiskers points out in her very next post, having multiple scumteams means everyone should be trying to locate scum.

Post 116 - Whiskers gives Trevor flack for voting raspberry and pushes her scumKass opinion a bit.

Post 130 - More props to Shotgun.

Post 165 - Nice lengthy ISO post on Chrimi. No vote or anything but appears to be planting seeds of doubt.

Post 193 - Hammers raspberry. Not sure I can blame anyone for that as he brought it on himself...but the fact remains it was a mislynch and she basically acknowledges in her hammer post that she doesn't know which faction he will turn out to be...which I read to mean she doesn't care.

Post 205 - Lays groundwork for the next day's effort towards Kcda (nothing wrong with that) and predicts her NK as being a given fact? Wow...how MOI-esque. I was not aware Whiskers had reached auto-N1 elimination status. OK...so why are you still here? You were a major role in unveiling Kcdawolf...why doesn't mafia worry you'll do the same for them? since you are so good. WTH would Luckyjt go before you?

Post 215 - laments her decision to hammer raspberry. Bets he wasn't scum. Hmm....

Post 229 - Messes up the remaining numbers. Gets the numbers of masons and scum right but can even recall how many of her own kind are left? Or does she?

Post 246 - OK...I can't even explain this one. She is on Kcda's case all of D1 and then D2 she doesn't mention him once...instead passing up a Kcda hammer to place a lone vote on Kass. WTF? And then Kass dies N2. Not sure what to make of that.

Nothing jumps out at me in her last two posts. She seems to be putting an effort forth (moreso than D2 at least).

I would not say Whiskers is squeaky clean. Her posting could easily be from manipulative, competent scum. I really don't care for her D2.

I'll get to Psyche asap.

[havingfitz]

OK...crash yesterday prevented my DK/Psyche ISO, here it is:

In post 31 DK responds to a Luckyjt post and comes across a bit defensive.

In post 52 DK claims to not be mafia. He doesn't say he isn't scum, as if the possibility of wolves isn't even on his mind, he is focused on pointing out he isn't

mafia

.

In post 55 and post 107 DK has some back and forth with Lucky and ends up voting him (essentially OMGUS).

After some more exchanges with Lucky DK votes raspberry for no reason (other than his "alliance" with BBmolla).

This was the end of DK's participation.

Enter Psyche:

By the time Psyche shows up on D3, D2 has already finished without any posts by DK and Kcda is already gone. We're down to 2 mafia and 1 wolf.

In post 306 Psyche lays out the state of the game in a clear manner. Townish.

In post 310 Psyche has cracked the case! j/k. His next few posts are to confirm his case. Putting effort into explaining his reads seems more townish than saaay Trevor's short/non-existent explanations (to name one...there may be others just as bad).

I've given my opinion of Psyche's case in post 310.

********Break**********

I have to take care of a few RL things and will continue later. I feel a Shotgun ISO may be necessary as well.

More BBmolla would be nice too!

[havingfitz]

Busy with Mother's Day stuff....will finish my thoughts on Psyche asap (possibly tomorrow).

[havingfitz]

EBWOP

The line in my post 402 about having already given my opinion on Psyche’s post 310 should have been directed to my post 377..

Back to my Psyche read through…

In post 359 Psyche ponders Whisker’s continued existence (something I rarely associate as a scumtell for anyone BTW). Psyche mentions my opinion that kass was a viable scumtarget. I would say at the point that comment was made that I thought everyone was potentially scum (assuming that what you mean by scumtaget) and my lone mention of kass was to place him in a group of 4 players (Trevor,BB,Shotgun and kassadin) who I thought had a strong likelihood of containing scum. Which still has a good chance of proving correct I might add.

In post 375 Psyche provides some more solid scumhunting. Question to Psyche…if the mafia were focused on killing the most likely werewolf…would that be a explanation for Whisker’s continued existence? Also…you say this pattern explains kcdaspot’s and BBM’s survival during nights. I get the BBM point,but how does it explain kcda’s survival during the night?

In post 376 Psyche uses the word

metacognition

. That made me laugh. OK… Carrying on…wait!

A prism of unregulated bias?

Give me a moment to compose myself.

Semantics aside,ok…I see your point the in the previous post as to why Kcda and BBM may have not been night targets. And I can see the link between Kass’ NK being tied to Whiskers. Not sure I see the Shotgun link (which would support my suspicion he is a wolf) to kass…and even if they (Whisker’s and Shotgun) were both interested in targetting kass as a night target,it wouldn’t necessarily mean they (Whixker’s and Shotgun) were the same alignment. Hypothetically,if Shotgun was the wolf and Whisker’s were mafia,they could both have an interest in killing kass as they would at least know he [kass] wasn’t the same alignment as they were. I’m doing my ISO on my phone and will check back on the Shotgun possibilities afterwards. But overall a good post.

Regarding post 389,Shotgun can be eager scum of the wolf variety. Also…how does Trevor’s vote on you indicative of his variety of scum alignment? At this point I agree Trevor is scum but I still lean more towards him being mafia than wolf. And conversely that Shotgun is more likely wolf than mafia. And while we do seem to disagree on the variety of scum those players are…we do seem to feel Whiskers is mafia.

Since we don’t want to mess up and target the last wolf today I think the safest play would be an agreed upon mafia member (ie Whiskers).

In post 397 you mention that NK analysis fundamentally suck….isn’t that what you are basing a lot of your reads today on? I see the NK analyses as being equally WIFOM-esque to my views on Kcda’s going away post. Hence our disagreements on the last wolf.

That all for Psyche.

In summary…as bad as I thought DK’s D1 posts were,Psyche has more than made up for them. And having played several games with DK…I’m accustomed to him playing poorly as town. So with the degree of scumhunting at least attempted by Psyche,I am more in the Whiskers is scum camp. My current reads are wolf = Shotgun and mafia = Whiskers,Trevor.

Thoughts?

[havingfitz]

The Psyche-Whiskers lovefest is hurting my head.

BBMolla....please provide some content. As confirmed town it would be nice to read some thoughts from someone I don't have to second guess or look over my shoulder at.

And Trevor lying low is no surprise. I just wonder if laying low at this stage of the game points to one variiety of alignment vs another.

[havingfitz]

Google doc

Can Whiskers and BBmolla finish filling this out? Who ever put my reads in got it right, though as I mentioned earlier, I am confused by the recent Psyche/Whisker interactions. But for now the Google doc is right re: my reads.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Whiskers

[havingfitz]

Wow....I wasn't expecting to wake up to a win. I was pretty confident Gunny was the wolf so I was fully expecting today to be either Trevor or I fighting it out with Psyche for the win. Luckily it didn't come to that.

Kudos to the wolves in getting rid of the masons/town and avoiding mafia

I was pretty sure Gunny was the last wolf the previous night and suggested his lynch but in hindsight...that may not have worked out well for mafia. If we had killed Gunny the night prior (instead of Kassidin) I think Kassadin would have still been a strong mislynch candidate but then last night would not have had the 2nd kill that sealed the win for us.

Posts 483 and 484 were amusing.

I enjoyed this game. While there wasn't a lot of posting (only 24 pages for the win) I didn't get the feeling it was dragging.

Most impressive to me was there was only one replacement. No flakes other than DK, and he is a flake.

Thanks mod for modding!