Abarat: Days of Magic, Nights of War Mafia (Endgame)

[Minimum]

Vote: MoI

Policy lynch.

[Minimum]

You're boring, petapan.

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*steals the floor*

My prediction: D1 will end with a Fate modkill.

I need to know if either Regfan or Fate have detailed flavor knowledge in this game.

ML, out of curiosity, why are you singling out the two people for whom it matters least to know if they have flavour knowledge of the game?

[Minimum]

Unvote, vote: Seraphim

P.S. totally siding with the godking. Fate being elected just shows the system is broken.

[Minimum]

Unvote, vote: 'marble

That was easy.

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Most of his thoughts mirror exactly what I was thinking when reading the thread and like his line of questioning and push onto Shinori, comes across as him genuinely thinking he's stumbled across something worth looking into. Also find his meta reference to WF to be a town-tell.

It's okay. You're just playing badly. (No, the fact that his mind went to WF is not a town tell.)

He admitted my read made sense anyway, so I don't know why you're pretending he looks town based on some boring superficial stuff.

[Minimum]

See, I think you're wrong and am actually pretty damn sure you are in this case. I think the fact that he noticed his post looked like WF but didn't change or amend it (Which is actually super easy to do) is a town-tell and his Shmugen/Peta-town reads are what I was thinking when reading through and something that no one else had mentioned.

I think marblescum's strengths and weaknesses are such that 1) no, it's not supereasy to do (and I don't think townmarble calls it wifom) and 2) he could do that easy-peasy and 3) the peta-town read is naïve.

I'd tell you what I think of those six but I think I'm running out of post and Mina probably wouldn't like it if he used our last penalty-free post of the Day on answering it. Let's see if I can squeeze in some quick analysis:

I think Bella is

[Minimum]

This was supposed to be our last post before replenishment...but instead it's our first

after

, because I'd just assumed the replenishment VC would be posted twenty-four hours after the last one. (CES will kill me for wasting it. )

We'll probably do a cycle of "CES posts four cryptic one-liners and votes, Mina writes one scattershot wall" each replenishment. If someone asks me something tonight, I'll leave my answers in the hydra QT for CES to post in the morning.

I-Llamarble

At the moment, I'm fine with our vote on him, in part because I know CES has been successful at reading him before, in part because I wasn't fond of Llamarble's first two posts (he seems somewhat image-conscious, the case on Shinori felt stretchy, and I didn't like "chesskid is a great wagon! Oh, but Seraphim and Shinori are scum together"), and in part because we're not yet in consensus on our other suspects.

He admitted my read made sense anyway, so I don't know why you're pretending he looks town based on some boring superficial stuff.

I don't think I said that, but yeah I could see myself as mafia going 'Okay I just laboriously gave birth to a post and the hardest thing for me to do this game is going to be making a decent postcount so let's just acknowledge the wifom to make it not a scumtell and post it.'
I'll town eventually though, so no worries.
Anyway, putting lots of votes on me isn't going to help me with operation think clearly.

My other half thinks your "easy but wrong" is either agreeing that our read makes sense or just meaningless "I should respond here" drivel, FYI. Also, since this was when we were the lone vote on you, I have no clue how that would cloud your thinking.

p-edit: Llama, instead of assuring us of how town you'll act eventually, just be town

right now

. I know it's a Catch-22 to attack you and then attack you more for defending yourself, but it seems like you're using more of your limited posts to discuss your town vs. scum meta than to play the game.

---

II-MoI vs. Bella

MoI is probably town even if he's gambiting, but I think he's telling the truth. (I think there's an obvious explanation for "At least one Day Aligned player," although I'd like to hear him clarify it.) All the speculation to whether it's a gambit is fruitless when he'd just revoke his claim before the day ends if so. MoI is always afraid of dying N1, so he'd be pretty stupid to spread misinformation and have town lose the game after his death as a result.

We're waiting on a few things before we share our reads on his pool of three

(besides, after all the work CES put into being opaque and unhelpful, he'd kill me if I made our slot too transparent)

. However, the timing of Bella's vote for MoI initially bothered me; it was after he'd dropped a huge towntell but before it became obvious that the wagon was no longer viable.

BELLA, READ THIS! BELOW HERE!

Since you didn't fully read the post that you voted MagnaofIllusion for, I'm assuming you'll skim this otherwise.

That sounds par for the course. I'll be sure to remember this when you're proven wrong.

(Fwiw, I didn't even read that part of your post on account of noticing the insult you aimed at me. Nice try, though.)

i. Why did you vote for MagnaofIllusion in your first post?
ii. You said before that you voted him without even seeing MoI's claim. Have you read it yet? What do you think?
iii. Are you voting MagnaofIllusion because you don't like him, or do you actually believe that he's scum? The part where you taunt him for being wrong seems to imply you think he's misguided town.
iv. Do you have any thoughts on people in the game who

aren't

MagnaofIllusion?

---

III-AGar

So just checking: first you thought Magister Ludi was scum because of his weird question. Then he explained himself (adequately, IMO). Are you still voting him because you don't think the ICs would actually be helpful? I'm not seeing how a technicality like that is alignment-relevant.

---

IV-OnceAndForEver

i. Whose alt are you?
ii. Why the over-the-top reaction to Regfan's post? Was it because you got a really strong town read on him?
iii. Fun fact: Faraday told me after the first Abarat game that hito doesn't like the miller role. What do you think about that?

---

V-Untrod Tripod

The only thing that stands out to me is this:

I'm having a hard time seeing chesskid as town from his interactions with MoI, but I'll let it slide for now

since we're apparently frying other fish at the moment.

This attitude is one of my pet peeves. What's stopping you from attacking chesskid if you really want to? It's not like this is deadline and it actually matters who's getting the most heat from the loudest voices in the town?

---

VI-Nuwen

Start posting.

(Yes, that was worth a giant purple header.)

[Minimum]

Also please don't encourage CES with his Llama read.

Really, Regfan? I'm going to be the bigger man here and just say that if you stop trying to turn my hydra partner against me, I'm sure we can play this game with a

minimum

of baseline references.

You can characterize "you voted me so I'm going to tell you you're wrong" as meaningless drivel if you like. I don't like when people vote me so I usually tell them to go away and put their vote someplace more productive.

Vapid drivel would've okay, not good, but still okay. Meaningless drivel is a scum tell.

[Minimum]

People calling me scum:
I have decided to ignore you, at least for the time being. Scum probably would realize zero chance of lynching me anyway and mess with somebody else, so people on my wagon who know me aren't too suspicious, though they will be if they stay on my wagon once I've towned.

I can totally get you mislynched with this replenishment bullshit.

I'd appreciate if we didn't rush any lynches today though because the longer this day draws out the better it is, plus there's a decent chance that Fate/I won't make it much deeper into the game.

OR
we nail 'marble before the sun has set and we're rid of replenishment nonsense forever.

[Minimum]

Let's do this with a

minimum

of fuss:

Unvote, vote: RedCoyote

[Minimum]

My other half doesn't like it when I post my actual reads (although I am supposed to tell you that you should all put more votes on RedCoyote, because this will totally persuade you), so I'm just going to answer the questions I missed:

I mentioned the miller thing to throw OAFE off-guard, but to be honest, I'm not confident that it's incriminating. This was months ago, and unfortunately, I don't remember what hito's objection was to millers (it had something to do with Mafia theory) or how adamant he was against them. I can't find the chat log. Faraday asked me a cryptic question in Abarat about whether hito had ever spoken to me about his thoughts on player expectations (Something like that? I can check the cache files when I get home)--that I asked him about after the game. And I just remember the answer had something to do with him disliking millers.

That said, after the first game in this series, I could definitely see hito throwing one in, either as an in-joke or to mess with people's expectations (and OaFE is claiming to be only a partial miller, now).

OaFE, since you ignored me on millers, here's another question for you. Did you read the first Abarat game?

Did any of your scumbuddies?

I am not that new, this is not my main. Regfan is the IC smart guy, of course I have a townread on him, learn to read.

ii. Why the over-the-top reaction to Regfan's post? Was it because you got a really strong town read on him?

I have a question about this Mina … what was your motivation in asking this question?--

Of course I know Regfan is the IC. I was being part snarky, part checking if maybe you didn't realize the guy you were kissing up to was the IC. (to be honest, when I read Regfan's first post, I kind of went, "Hmm, he sounds tow--never mind ," for a split second, so it was entirely possible). The tone of OAFE's fawning post to Regfan bothered me, and I found it slightly scummier because he was telling us he liked someone we already knew was innocent.

--

MoI is always afraid of dying N1, so he'd be pretty stupid to spread misinformation and have town lose the game after his death as a result.

So Mina … how do you possibly extrapolate that line of thought?

I thought it was clear I meant you would retract your claim before the end of D1 if you were gambiting town (unless you wanted me to murder you after the game). Otherwise, the truth might die with you, which could potentially screw the town over. Therefore, people should stop wasting their breath debating it.

[Minimum]

(Two free posts left!)

In hindsight, that accidentally sounded passive-aggressive. I mean more that my other half prefers that we keep our cards close to our chest.

(Also, the Faraday quote was "Mina do you know hito's stance on subversion in setup's or have you discussed it with him.")

[Minimum]

That really doesn't sound similar and I don't see why he'd think you'd be an easy target.

Regfan, you should take control of your own destiny. Fate is no good.

[Minimum]

Sounds like a waste of two perfectly good players. I hate that notion with a passion. If everyone played with that mentality, we'd get nowhere fast.

It's okay; we actually just don't have any reads but don't want to admit it.

"I can temporarily stop looking evil" reeks of Tailor/Lawyerish bullshit role.

That'd just ran into flavour problems, generally.

[Minimum]

Get Channel to post?

[Minimum]

Channel, what do you think of OnceAndForEver?

(His iso isn't that long if you need reminding.)

[Minimum]

However, generally I don't like voting for millers D1,

This stance makes no sense. Ceteris paribus you should always be more willing to go after claimed negative utility roles.

[Minimum]

Looked over a few ISOs, and just some stuff that stuck out:

Hey, 4nxiety. I know this is late, but why did you vote petapan in your first post of the game?

Hey, Shmugen.

I'm torn on Shinori. Am I really just thinking he's too new and would pull those sorts of extreme reactions? Some of you have townreads on the slot, why so?

Could you be more specific? Are you calling those extreme reactions scummy?

Hey, Karen. So do you think that all the major wagons right now are on scum? You don't think there are any townies who are being unfairly maligned?

Hey, Seraphim.

However, generally I don't like voting for millers D1,

This stance makes no sense. Ceteris paribus you should always be more willing to go after claimed negative utility roles.

Your stance makes no sense. Well, it sort of makes sense in regards to other "negative utility roles" but a claimed miller who claims immediately is no longer a negative utility or is at least severely nerfed in its purpose of fucking investigative roles up. Obviously, anyone who investigates a claimed miller is stupid as fuck. So that leaves us with a player who, for all intents and purposes, is just immune to investigations and has as much chance as flipping scum as anyone else.

On day 1, there generally isn't any commanding reason to lynch someone but it is used to achieve reactions, so lynching a miller for being a miller is pointless. Your stance seems to be a sort of policy lynch, which can be harmful on D1. Now, if the miller plays in a very anti-town or scummy fashion, he might be worth lynching anyway, but I'm adopting a wait-and-see approach.

So to paraphrase:

Seraphim: OAFE is really scummy, but I don't want to vote him because I don't like lynching millers on D1.
Minimum: That doesn't make sense. Shouldn't you be more willing to lynch a harmful role on D1 than

less

willing?
Seraphim: Your stance doesn't make sense. Advocating a policy lynch of millers is wrong!

There was no need for a lecture about why policy lynches are Very Bad, and D1 is Very Useful for Testing Reactions. My vote isn't on OAFE right now, so obviously this slot isn't advocating a miller policy lynch.

You didn't answer the question in the slightest. Whether claimed millers are also "negative utility roles" is irrelevant. (I think anyone would agree that they're a net detriment even if they claim--millers are less likely to get NK'd and and guaranteed never to be confirmed innocent by a cop investigation--but that's beside the point.). Here's what you said about OAFE:

My second choice would be OAFE. There has been some awful postings from that guy and the miller thing, while not incriminating, does not look good for him. However, generally I don't like voting for millers D1, which is why Llamarble takes precedence.

So that implies that you'd vote OAFE over Llamarble if you didn't have a policy against voting millers on D1. Um...why?

(While you're at it, you could also explain how something can simultaneously "not look good for him" and be "not incriminating." The phrasing reads like subtle undermining.)

[Minimum]

After some discussion...

VOTE: AGar

CES says that Llamarble is an extremely suboptimal D1 lynch, for the record. We aren't confident he's town by any means, but by D2, his alignment will be a lot more obvious. (Yes, I know that Minimum was voting Llamarble before, but that was at a different time and served a different purpose.)

Llamarble voters who get special badges of dishonour:

Llamarble looks way worse to me, everything about his posting just screams scum trying to just cause confusion instead of trying to actually do anything productive.

What does that even mean? How is that an actual scumtell, and how exactly does someone go about "trying to cause confusion instead of trying to do anything productive"?

Llama wrote:
I havent' actually read most of the posts in this game yet, but once I do I'll post a list of reads.


Yeah, this isn’t Llama Town.

Yes, I know I called MoI town for his claim, but this is a horribly lazy excuse to vote someone (omigod, you admitted that you're not caught up with the game! Clearly, you're not Llamarble town, so let me make you the leading wagon, now). What makes me paranoid is that your AGar vote was equally half-assed and opportunistically timed.

KarenDelibird, could you explain why you think there shouldn't be votes on Bella or MoI? (Your slot hasn't mentioned reads on either player.)

Flash, just checking. How much of the posting so far has been chamber and how much Nexus? Have you been discussing things as a hydra at all? Also, why do you think Llamarble is a good lynch?

Ok .. my problem is the ‘leading to a loss’ line of thought. No-one is going to forget that I claimed my Informed status Day1 regardless of my flip. Hell … I don’t see how everyone getting a mass case of amnesia regarding my information the second I die would mean a loss given these players are still in the game and can be scum-hunted normally.

I thought I'd made it clear, but I was referring to

gambiting

town MoI (i.e., lying about scum in petapan/chesskid/Bella). If all three are town, then you dying before you say, "Guys, I made up that bullshit about the Wisdom of the Spires!" might lead to us chain-lynching the three of them and subsequently losing. Which is why I'm saying you'll retract your claim before today ends if you're gambitting? I'm not sure why you keep pursuing this, or what alignment-relevant information you expect to get in response.

[Minimum]

The agar wagon is still really bad.

Yes, but I think there's a decent chance he's scum despite that.

@Seraphim, I think the fully worked out fake claims part of the set-up makes that type of consideration fairly null.

As for lynching Llamarble, he said it well enough himself and I'll just point out the Replenishment PR. (Recent push on him is also based on silly stuff.)

How is causing confusion in any benefit to the town? It isn't. How does it benefit to the scum? Less coherency in a town leads to far more inaccurate reads, far more clutter to sort through and far more opportunities for a player's slips to be covered up.

It would benefit the scum but that really is almost entirely theoretical. Scum don't randomly decide to try and cause confusion and 'marblescum certainly wouldn't.

[Minimum]

I. Shmugen

@Chamber - I'm calling Shinori's reactions extreme, flinchy, like someone going through exaggerated motions to not fall on ice. I believe it to be scummy in this instance, but my gut is whispering that it also screams newbie and maybe I'm getting them confused, but my gut's track record on mafiascum is abysmal.

This is a Mina/CES hydra. Anyway, something niggles at me, and I'm not sure if it's cognitive dissonance or just clumsy writing:

I'm torn on Shinori. Am I really just thinking he's too new and would pull those sorts of extreme reactions? Some of you have townreads on the slot, why so?

The first sentence in that quote expresses doubt in your Shinori scumread. The second sentence says you think he might be newbie town overreacting. But the third sentence is asking people why they have townreads on him? Or is the second sentence implying you think he's scum faking it (as a newbie)?

Also, if you're "torn" on Shinori, what makes you want to vote him over your other suspects?

(A viable wagon means one likely to get the person lynched, not one on a person you suspect. Did you misspeak?)

II. Flash

I didn't ask because your hydra seemed dissonant, but because I wanted to know if Nexus had any input at all. Out of curiosity, what's the source of the disagreement on Staeg?

III. MagnaofIllusion

Hey Minamum ... you don't get to throw stones about NOT sharing full reasoning behind votes when you keep referring to how your partners wants to keep things on the Down-Low regarding your reads ... Just an FYI

Leaving aside the ad hominem fallacy (whether I do something has no bearing on whether it's scummy when

you

do it)...no, those aren't remotely related. I'm not attacking you for not giving full reasoning behind votes. I'm attacking you for giving

shitty

reasons.

You quoted one sentence of Llamarble's and said he'd never say that as town. I found your reaction completely overblown given that I don't think falling behind during the first RL days of a game is that uncommon. And the timing and presentation of the AGar vote had a similar feel (although in that case, I thought your attack was more justified): a weak point with little conviction against the whipping boy

du jour

. From my POV, those votes look either like lazy bussing or opportunism. Hence why they break my brain when I have no clue why you'd fakeclaim.

So are you going to defend your reason for voting Llamarble as something

other

than shitty?

IV. AGar

Llamarble looks way worse to me, everything about his posting just screams scum trying to just cause confusion instead of trying to actually do anything productive.

What does that even mean? How is that an actual scumtell, and how exactly does someone go about "trying to cause confusion instead of trying to do anything productive"?

Chides me early D1 for voting someone over a misunderstanding.
Doesn't understand a post I make.
Votes me.

wheeeeeeeee

For the record, you're not being voted for that post alone (although it definitely played a part).

(Also, don't provoke me. Had it not been for the posting cap, I would have been a bitch in response to "LOL, you clearly haven't read my post, you illiterate dumbass, because I explained why I kept a crappy vote on Ludi." It was pretty clear I read your posts but didn't buy your Ludi suspicions.)

How is causing confusion in any benefit to the town? It isn't. How does it benefit to the scum? Less coherency in a town leads to far more inaccurate reads, far more clutter to sort through and far more opportunities for a player's slips to be covered up.

Ergo, "scumtell". Or, more accurately, reasoning for a vote. Scumtell implies that it's something that is directly telling of scum on a consistent basis. I think this isn't consistent for all players (this is also fairly common behavior in VIs to simply post inane bullshit that only clutters the thread), but a player like Llamarble - who isn't a terrible player - behaving in this manner does not sit well with me at all, enough that I'm willing to lay the vote down there.

Myself has ninja'd me on this one. In theory, someone "posting to confuse" has a detrimental effect on the town. But

who the fuck actually does that

?

No, seriously. Who goes, "Whee, I'm going to post actively and change my mind a lot, because this way the town will be less coherent!" Never mind that this is a ridiculous characterization of Llamarble's posting style, since he's playing like a rational human being, not spamming the thread with orca pictures.

Read his posts - he keeps posting shit like "Well I know this in my scum meta but LOLOL FUCK IT!" or "I'm not actually reading this game, but HURR BE MY READS."

How does that help ANYTHING stay clear? It's pretty much intentionally trying to inject WIFOM into every turn, because when a player is self-aware of a meta, you have to worry about them manipulating it. This is ten times worse because now it's "Is he fooling us into thinking that he'd manipulate his own meta as scum, but just wants us to bite on that hook and semi-clear him?"

These are plausible reasons to suspect him, but why do you think Llamascum's motivation for using WIFOM or self-meta is "distract the town from scumhunting by being confusing", as opposed to "look more town"?

[Minimum]

@Seraphim, "full PMs".

Why is that again? I know in White Flag Mafia CES never floated anything of this sort of thought process … we wanted Llama scum dead right form the start.

If I had Llama read with the same degree of accuracy here as I did then, then I'd get him lynched. The point of being letting him live is that over time I very probably will be certain as to his alignment (my confidence in that regard is probably also more of a recent thing). Not to mention that replenishment guarantees that he can't do his town mass posting thing.

[Minimum]

When I said "rank and file together now pip pip" I was interested in who would respond along the lines of "RIGHT HO GUV'NOR" and move their vote. The cuntface IC was all like NOOOO one or two posts after though, so now I can't even tell if people are just echoing his words/playing accordingly ("In fact I'd rather people be voting their stronger reads") or responding in earnest.

Are you sure it was Regfan that ruined it and not its inherent stupidity?

P.S. both Flash and Minimum should be town reads. You can get rid of chesskid of RedCoyote if you don't want to have too many; they don't really make sense anyway.

[Minimum]

Positive feedback is minor enough with a 5 man scum team that the role is viable. Otherwise the notion that he wouldn't claim his actual role mechanic as a Godfather seems silly - I think people are failing to consider the coolness of it.

Flash(,) wagon on UT?

[Minimum]

Hey Mina, what did being an informed townie in original abarat entail?

...it is a townie that is informed? I.e. it knows something specific about the set-up.

Unvote, vote: UT

[Minimum]

Minimum, explain UT to me? He's really null for me.

UT lurks as scum; UT giving up on chesskid and voting AGar when chesskid was just as viable a wagon is very questionable; both his points against 'marble are silly and not stuff scum would actually go for.

[Minimum]

He could've been hiding behind OAFE.

Vote: Tierce

Hey, hey, Tierce, you're going to get lynched.

[Minimum]

Yep. You're not allowed to be suspicious of me, Ludi.

(OAFE was probably shot by the Commexo. Trackers being quite capable of catching SKs and all.)

Bella, does that cover the whole game or just his replacing out?

[Minimum]

Correct play is probably not to send anyone. I think it's a fairly safe bet we won't have 2 suspects we find suspicious enough that sending the least suspicious of the 2 away will be beneficial (and the roleblocker flip only adds to that).

P.S. Two-in-One's relevant ability is Transcendental, so sending them wouldn't be any good either.

[Minimum]

That's just the basic Tracker-SK interaction?

[Minimum]

CES, who's scum? (PS: I was originally right about Llarmable!)

Tierce. RC and AGar are lesser suspects.

P.S. Being right for the wrong reasons is nothing to be proud of. You realize 'marble agreed with me that your town tell on him was invalid, right? And that dude is not shy about calling things he does town tells.

[Minimum]

Why would that be

your

first priority? Anyone can do that.

[Minimum]

Hiding behind a scum read without a breadcrumb is really dumb. I know 'marble found OAFE's claim credible; hiding behind a town read is totally valid here.

[Minimum]

OAFE was neither, so that's fine.

[Minimum]

On one hand it's basic SK-Tracker interaction that anyone should understand that the Commexo would shoot Once. Then he 180s and says it makes sense that a Hider would hide behind such an obvious Nightkill target. But wait, OAFE wasn't an obvious Nightkill target.

He makes plenty of sense as nightkill in retrospect; I don't think that necessarily means Llamarble would've avoiding hiding behind him and OAFE still wasn't an optimal nightkill the way Quilford said.

Minimum is scum trying to keep Day from lynching his partner in the three!

Do you actually think this sounds the least bit realistic?

[Minimum]

The Minimum's reads are all over the place. Yesterday it was scumhunting on a wagon it was voting for too. Chalking up to hydra non-communication and want that slot to start signing its posts, please. I don't ask for this sort of thing very often.

I'll scumhunt wherever I want, especially D1. There's no lack of hydra communication and we won't be signing our posts (that'd be silly anyway; you really should have no problem telling the two of us apart.)

[Minimum]

That was Mina.

[Minimum]

A much less flippant response to Nuwen: CES prefers that hydras present a unified front and speak as one voice for two people. To respect his wishes, I'm trying to reduce all the "wes" and references to personal (rather than hydra) reads. A good rule of thumb: if the post is too short to have a distinctive style, it's probably CES.

I'm not sure why you think signing our posts would be informative (this slot hasn't contradicted itself in reads, even though the writing style changes). Do you trust yourself to read a particular head?

That's just the basic Tracker-SK interaction?

Hiding behind a scum read without a breadcrumb is really dumb. I know 'marble found OAFE's claim credible; hiding behind a town read is totally valid here.

OAFE was neither, so that's fine.

Hey look ... Minimum's contradicting himself!

On one hand it's basic SK-Tracker interaction that anyone should understand that the Commexo would shoot Once. Then he 180s and says it makes sense that a Hider would hide behind such an obvious Nightkill target. But wait, OAFE wasn't an obvious Nightkill target.

Nope.jpp. Scummy Cognitive Dissonance ho!

Minimum is scum trying to keep Day from lynching his partner in the three!

...yeah, okay. This is a dumb case and you should feel bad for making it.

Protip: catching scum is

not

combing through someone's posts to find two sentences that you quote with made-up context, and then screaming, "CONTRADICTION. SCUM! YOU'RE BUSTED."

First of all, we actually weren't expecting OAFE to die before his flip on D2. Is there a reason that you decided to omit this relevant quote (which makes it pretty damn obvious Minimum never called OAFE "an obvious nightkill target", just speculated on why he died):

(OAFE was

probably

shot by the Commexo. Trackers being quite capable of catching SKs and all.)

(Emphasis mine.)

The follow-up quote was pretty obviously an answer to Quilford's "Why the SK?"

Second of all, even if CES really thought OAFE was the obvious NK, maybe

Llamarble

would have thought differently. OAFE was under a lot of suspicion and still somewhat lynchable. Llamarble might not have realized that the tracker claim made OAFE a riskier hider choice. It's possible he tried to confirm a popular suspect whom he personally read as town. (Personally, I don't think there's enough information to be sure either way, but that's beside the point.)

Third of all...how the fuck is this even remotely a scumtell?

It's just null speculation over night actions. Whether or not the theory makes sense has no relation to our alignment. It's not like Minimum claimed hider who'd hidden behind OAFE (well, assuming he didn't die), and then said something like, "OAFE was obviously going to be killed by the SK last night."

Did you actually believe that post when you made it, Magna?

[Minimum]

Oh, the above post was CES, by the way.

[Minimum]

Oh, the above post was CES, by the way.

To be quite honest, I've stopped caring by now.

I'm not sure if I've trolled you or trolled myself.

[Minimum]

Basing your analyses off of worst case scenarios in a large game is garbage.

[Minimum]

I'm really disappointed that Untrod Tripod replaced out, because I think his alignment would have been a lot clearer if I'd wrangled more information out of him. Most of the problems I have with him are based on things he didn't clarify.

But I just wanted to bring up a couple of points against the slot (obviously, Tierce can't defend against them, but at the very least this might motivate people to keep a closer eye on her).

I already mentioned this:

V-Untrod Tripod

The only thing that stands out to me is this:

I'm having a hard time seeing chesskid as town from his interactions with MoI, but I'll let it slide for now

since we're apparently frying other fish at the moment.

This attitude is one of my pet peeves. What's stopping you from attacking chesskid if you really want to? It's not like this is deadline and it actually matters who's getting the most heat from the loudest voices in the town?

Hs next post completely ignored me, never followed up on his chesskid and AGar, and just asked Llamarble a throwaway question. Given how unlikely he made it sound that chesskid was town (for nebulous reasons he never explained), it was weird to drop a read like that and never follow up on it. Furthermore, why didn't he attack me again?

I was annoyed at the time, checked back...and saw chesskid and AGar both had only one vote each on them. Chesskid actually had

two

due to Strain. (Granted, Fate was pushing AGar, but still, UT clearly was talking out his ass by throwing out a chesskid scumread but acting like it wasn't worth pushing because of group consensus.)

After some discussion, we decided to hold off for a few days and see if he'd lurk while under no pressure rather than call him out.

I'll take Bella's word that the lurking was fairly null, but his last post was also terrible.

unvote, vote Llama

I'm still having a really hard time looking past him trying to start inculcating a scum read on Nuwen before she posted anything. Also his interactions with MoI came across to me as him trying to sneakily set up some discrediting of the claim, which doesn't seem very town to me at all.

The timing of this vote was horribly scummy, and looked like he was going, "Look, I mentioned Llamarble's name before, so I can explain jumping onto this wayon!" Except his question at the time was just a weak half-hearted prod, and a terrible reason for a vote. It's totally valid to suspect someone of being the most likely scum on your wagon out of PoE, particularly if you think she's lurking.

Also, the MoI thing seems like talking out of his ass. I just reread Llamarble. The only points he ever makes about MoI are

agreeing that people in the pool are good lynches

. He sure as fuck never "sneakily discredits" him, other than one post where he sort of vaguely consider others' opinions that it's a gambit.

Never mind that the "doesn't seem very town to me at all" is super oily, and that he still doesn't mention chesskid in that post.

[Minimum]

Nice try. You aren't going to get me to continue a wall-off with you, even by baiting me.

Why? Because firstly, I'm obviously not getting lynched today. Secondly, because you're getting nightkilled long before endgame, so it doesn't make a difference what my read on you is.

But you realize that since all three are dead, it's totally irrelevant whether Llamarble hid behind Nacho or OAFE, right? So it's not muddying anything, just a difference of opinions. Seriously, you should have just accused Minimum of IIoA or something.

CES can answer the question about SKs if he wants, although I don't think it makes a difference.

[Minimum]

Nice try. You aren't going to get me to continue a wall-off with you, even by baiting me.

Why? Because firstly, I'm obviously not getting lynched today. Secondly, because you're getting nightkilled long before endgame, so it doesn't make a difference what my read on you is.

But you realize that since all three are dead, it's totally irrelevant whether Llamarble hid behind Nacho or OAFE, right? So it's not muddying anything, just a difference of opinions. Seriously, you should have just accused Minimum of IIoA or something.

CES can answer the question about SKs if he wants, although I don't think it makes a difference.

So to summarize ...

1. You'd don't feel you can actually refute what I'm saying so ... disengage.
2. You know I am Town. That I approve of.
3. You know you will not be Nightkill since you are scum but know I will so are banking on people not caring about my reads. Noted.
4. You want to keep trying to minimize the fact that CES's statements were objectively scummy and hope by dismissing things as a 'difference of opinion' it will go away.

Glad we could come to an agreement that I'm Town and you aren't.

...um...

...you...do realize there's a guaranteed serial killer in the game, right?

Let's just say I'm getting

A Storm of Swords

flashbacks in more ways than one.

If there's a quote you'd really like a defense to, point it out. But this exchange isn't productive.

[Minimum]

Why is AGar town, Regfan?

For ISOing.

[Minimum]

Him having genuine beliefs is not much of a town tell when those genuine beliefs aren't related to in-game events (the Bella stuff falls under this too) and the Llamarblepush is very fakeable (let's not exaggerate how genuine that sounded; I remember you being far more reasonable in that regard D1).

[Minimum]

With Staeg flipping Informed, I could see Informed being a feature of the town as well--which would make this whole situation make sense from non-gambitting townMoI. Can I stop reading your posts now?

Didn't you just call the notion that MoI could be policy lynch gambitting ridiculous?

What makes you think either Flash or I jumped on RC as a result of the slip wossname?

[Minimum]

Just ignore Regfan, MattP - he's just a big revisionist meanie bo beanie. ("AGars Llarmable push still coming across as somewhat townish"

is

more reasonable than the silliness you've been peddling today, Regfan.)

I did, and Staeg's flip makes it being-an-actual-MoI-town-role more likely. I'm working through puzzle pieces, and these two match together--the gambit would be ridiculous, and it would make sense for town to have an Informed role.

You didn't give other reasoning, afaict (and as far as I've read). Am I wrong? If so, how?

Including the "non-gambiting" disclaimer is weird if you were rejecting that possibility out of hand (and your intended meaning would've been clear from the context regardless.) On a related note, MoI's claimed role seems to be closer in spirit to a Knowledgeable Townie than the Informed roles of Abarat 1 since the latter just knew things about the set-up without any reference to specific players.

Flash's delayed vote and call for me to sheep him don't really work as "hey, a slip!"; Flash and I are too cool for that sort of stuff regardless.

[Minimum]

This wagon is on town. Fairly damn positive of that. Someone needs to unvote it before some idiot comes and hammers it.

Hmm. Tempting.

[Minimum]

I already looked into that, Shmugen. Their thing is a Transcendental ability and as such sending them wouldn't do anything.

Low risk/reward is a waste of a perfectly good mechanic.

But it's not a good mechanic. This seems like the only pro-town use of it.

Death to Tierce.

[Minimum]

Send: MattP

[Minimum]

Tierce should die but this inactivity-based stuff is still lazy.

[Minimum]

Why you can't use pro-town zest it if you're town, Tierce? It's what I do.

Quilford, still waiting for you to give your lame reasoning as to why we're anything but a paragon of pro-town parleying.

[Minimum]

EBWOP: Why can't you just*

No idea what happened there.

[Minimum]

Are you being intentionally useless here?

[Minimum]

I don't think anyone particularly cares about just your reads and the vote is pointless.

[Minimum]

Let me just post this as I was writing it when the thread get locked:

Did Nuwen's vote to send Bella push you over the edge? What I'm trying to get at is I don't understand why you didn't vote to send MattP earlier. Was this a hydra thing? Or would I be way off base in assuming you did this to prevent a longer debate over who/if to send?

It wasn't anything deliberate; I just somehow didn't.

The ends justify the means in lynching correctly, wouldn't you agree? I mean, why even make this point? Maybe I could understand if you then followed this sentence up with, "Here's what I think is really bad..." or something like that.

Otherwise I see this more like someone attempting to position themselves in a certain way after Tierce flips how you know she will.

I mean, there's a motivation behind everything.

Don't think it's quite that simple. I think I'd have to be a bit more certain of Tierce's alignment before I'd consider not calling people out on that point.

Everything y'all say just rubs me the wrong way. Why is a Shmug vote pointless?

Actually, let me rephrase that. How do you know a vote on someone is pointless before it has been put out there and attempted to be sold to the player base?

Anxiety is not a high profile player; he didn't give a shred of reasoning; it's the only vote on him; there hasn't been much in the way of anti-Shmugen sentiment going round - I don't think you can reasonably expect the vote to be anything but pointless.

Vote: Tierce

[Minimum]

Shinori's handling of the 1in3 definitely suggests Bellatown and petapanscum to a lesser extent. Him calling Anxiety town is probably a town tell.

[Minimum]

You can't quickhammer Tierce since the votes have been reset.

And how does that point to Tiercetown? I assume Shinori was expecting to get lynched and thus used his power to get something useful out of his death.

[Minimum]

You're not worried about Shinori ignoring petapan?

And yeah, Abarat 1 had daytalk. But if I remember correctly, that was a fairly deliberate decision so it just means it's possible they have it here.

[Minimum]

Mina says it didn't have daytalk. Not sure where that idea came from then.

[Minimum]

Shinori rages at petapan like petapan is town. It doesn't feel like the kind of complaint he would do about a scumbuddy.

What are you referring to here?

[Minimum]

That sequence totally works as buddy-buddy (and I wouldn't describe one caps lock line as raging).

Minimum--Please put Mina on the phone. I'd like her reasons for voting me. I also need to actually read that slot, so stop trying to keep her all enigmatic and stuff, CES.
Hindu, UT as sleeper scum? No.

Mina'll be plenty active when I'm in France. You're just going to have to deal with me until then. And UT works as sleeper scum just fine even if he had valid reasons to replace out.

[Minimum]

Didn't the first Abarat Mafia have a pairing of "informed" roles where one knew one was town and the other knew one was scum?

Yes and this matters how?

Tierce, does your ability explicitly state that you don't know that guy's alignment or is it just implied?

[Minimum]

It find it weird that your ability wouldn't explicitly say that he was town, given that the flavour makes it abundantly clear and that the original Abarat's informed townie role did explicitly mention that the other dude was scum, which was about equally obvious.

[Minimum]

Wait. Based on the excerpt I read the plant person forgets about the Numa Child every time. Your role makes no sense. The Numa Child knowing about the plant person makes sense but not the other way around.

[Minimum]

You're supposed to literally not know Numa Child.

[Minimum]

People acting as if both existing confirms both as town. This is... problematic, in my eyes.

It confirms their role name and by extension their alignment since neither character makes the slightest bit of sense as Night or Commexo aligned.

We'll just wait if there is a Numa Child that also happens to know the plant role is in the game. If there isn't, we lynch her without a second thought - it makes zero sense to have that relation be asymmetric in a way that means the plant person is the one that's knowledgeable.

[Minimum]

Bella, it says "if I believe doing so is crucial to the game balance". Either there are two roles that know about each other's existence or one of the two knows about the other, in which case it makes no sense for the plant one to be knowledgeable one - see how balance doesn't come into this?

Petapan, why is it so unrealistic that Tierce would just have a Vanilla Plant Person PM and decided to claim Informed Townie instead? I think you can generally safely assume that Numa Child'll be in the set-up if you get plant person as a fake claim (especially with a mod like hito who hands out extra fake claims - why not Numa Child too if he's not in the set-up?)

[Minimum]

Note also that beyond the obvious reasons for why Tierce would be more likely that flavour mistake it also just makes sense for someone to make that mistake if they're only looking at what to make of the plant role, whereas if you're considering them as a pair of roles, the plant one being the knowledgeable one is always going to stand out more as being contrary to the flavour.

[Minimum]

Sweet. µmooey, first thing you should do is claim that you know plant person is in the game if you are Numa Child and know that to be the case.

Tierce, why are you trying to push for a Numa Child claim even if Numa Child doesn't know your role is in the game? Numa Child doesn't make a lick of sense as a scum role, so you can't use that as an argument.

[Minimum]

Quilford, RedCoyote and sword_of_omens haven't posted at all since the claim.

And it still makes zero sense to have two characters where pretty much the defining feature of their story is that the one knows the other but not vice versa and then put those in the game but reverse that relation.

[Minimum]

Input: I have no idea why you claimed. Target claimed VTs/roles with no active abilities if it comes up (but that should be obvious).

[Minimum]

It's totally my wagon, not Nuwen's, just for the record.

Tierce has clearly given up anyway and I can't say I blame her.

[Minimum]

Hmm.

-Bella, if MattP ever reaches L-1, will you promise to hammer him?
-MattP, if Bella reaches L-1, will you promise to hammer her?

If there's another person who can block active/factional abilties, I think enough scum are down that it's worth it to counterclaim petapan...but I'm pretty sure that if Bella and MattP both flip town, then the liar is likely MagnaofIllusion and

not

petapan. (Actually, I'd probably feel this way even without petapan's claim.)

(By the way, MoI, since you apparently weren't reading between the lines before...the "similarity" I noticed to ASoS? The fact that you were widely seen as protown and trusted...and ended up nightkilled on N2, thus saving me the trouble of trying to make a case on you. )

[Minimum]

Speaking of which, what's the point of giving MoI a pool of three if one of the players has a role that's mod-confirmed to be in the set-up?

Also, just double-checked the opening post:

If there's another person who can block

active/

factional abilties

[Minimum]

Shmugen, by the way, why did you suggest that petapan hammered instead of MattP at the beginning of the day?

(My other half is in France for the next two weeks, but before he left, he felt strongly that MattP was the most likely scum in the three and that his fake scumclaim was an attempt to win towncred. He also thought that Shinori probably wouldn't have called Bella town as her buddy.)

MagnaofIllusion, for when you get back, is there a reason you've never claimed your actual role name?

Flash...explain your thought process to me. What you're saying is that MagnaofIllusion is town AND faked knowledge that one of three players were scum?

See, I'm confused because I think it's a bad role for hito to throw into the game when one of the three is essentially a second innocent child due to his claim. But can you tell me exactly what his motivations would have been as town? I mean, something other than "MoI is mean, so he'd obviously play against his win condition just for shits and giggles."

I had sympathy for those calling it a gambit on D1, because it would have been cute for one day as a discussion starter/attempt to spur a policy lynch. And we can wait for MoI to check in before moving ahead. But at this point, there is zero motivation for a town-aligned player to have made up information and let this become a distraction up to D3. It would be on par with Ludi faking a guilty in AFFC, and I'm apparently the only one who expects MoI to know much better.

Either MagnaofIllusion is town and telling the truth, or scum.

Personally, I think if he's scum, he'd put a scumbuddy in his pool of 3, anyway. (I had a crackpot theory he could be Commexo and have extra information as part of his role, but that would be too mean to the Night team.)

Also, your logic puzzle argument is silly. Mafia is also a "logic puzzle" when someone claims a guilty on another player and puts himself in a 1 v. 1. Are you saying it's poor play to lynch the guilty because that's not in the spirit of pure scumhunting? 20% of the people on the player list are scum (if we assume only one scum among the three, then odds of getting it right elsewhere are 1 in 6), while AT LEAST 33% of {Bella, Matt, MoI} are scum--and furthermore, if Bella/Matt is town, then whoever hammers her and suicides will have a 50% chance of being scum.

(Besides, that's bad math on "5-6 townies for one scum." Those 1-2 town are dying each night anyway, and chances are we'd mislynch on at least one day if we don't follow Shmugen's plan.)

[Minimum]

Um...Red?

Did you notice petapan's claim? Thoughts on it?

(You're one of my top scum reads right now in part because you keep saying over-the-top insincere stuff like "No one that was actually playing the game to hunt scum would've thought Hindu was calling them out" in response to fairly innocuous posts, by the way.)

[Minimum]

I doubt hito would deliberately add an event just so as to make someone's role incrementally stronger, so no, I don't think this is even slightly related to MoI's claim.

Also, I am completely opposed to petapan announcing in the thread that he's jailkeeping MoI. If Bella/Matt are town, then MoI is scum, and peta should just protect someone he thinks is a likely nightkill; if one of them flips Night (as opposed to Commexo), then petapan should block a suspect because each team will only have one member left. (If he can find a way to breadcrumb his target so that it'd be unambiguous upon his death, that would also be nice.)

Red, explain why you thought this was even potentially a good plan. This is actually a pretty antitown plan.

And why are you voting Bella and not MattP?

=================

Bella, please paraphrase the flavour in your role PM. What exactly does it say about Tidal Jim?

=================

Flash, also, I know you brushed this off on D1, but upon reflection (and a Staeg scumflip), I'd still like an answer:

Out of curiosity, what's the source of the disagreement on Staeg?

After all, without CES around to defend you, I might do something rash.

[Minimum]

No one lynch anyone until MagnaofIllusion comes back from his V/LA.

I can't believe some of you. "Oh, don't be silly. We can't act on a roleclaim, because we can't trust anything that MagnaofIllusion says. Because he might just be

lying

! Oh, but the fact that he's lying is totally alignment-null. Because lying is just soooo much fun!" And I agree with the argument that these players will never be nightkilled until endgame, so now's a good opportunity to take advantage of the mechanic. But we need MoI to fullclaim right now before we lynch, if only because certain people have admitted they'd totally believe him if he backed down.

But anyway, since he's nowhere close to a lynch:

VOTE: MattP

I'm personally agnostic on him vs. Bella, but given that my hydra partner felt strongly that it was Matt, I feel like I should at least put some momentum in that direction.

His claiming he would reread Bella to see how town she sounded in the game with MoI...um, if you think that Bella sounds relatively genuine, then what do you think of MoI? That said, I'm not a fan of Bella's claim (for the record, Hinduragi's argument that her Tidal Jim breadcrumb makes her town is crap and borderline "I have extra information and I'm trying to sound super town by being the only one to passionately defend lynchbait"; Hindu, what meta experience do you have with Bella that makes you know her meta so well?) I could see her reading too much into her flavour text as a VT, but her claim feels a bit too much like Tierce's ("Claiming VT is boring and will get me lynched...so let me try to work in some weird flavour confirmation instead.")

[Minimum]

Upon reflection, this argument is pointless. I promise not to discuss the 1 in 3 until MagnaofIllusion returns from his V/LA--as long as no one lynches before he returns.

Oh, Shmugen. What's your read on MagnaofIllusion?

Gamma, sell me on RedCoyote-town.

Bella, can you explain your town reads on Seraphim, sword_of_omens, and AGar? And why don't you have any scumreads outside MoI and Matt?

I just can't write it off as easily as MoI goofing around. Sorry. You can write a page on how much you think Bella is town, but this problem has to be resolved. I don't know how y'all can just bury your collective heads in the sand and pretend it's not standing there right in front of us. Not on the premise that MoI was screwing around. Nah, that's a total cop out. MoI hasn't given the indication that he was staging a gambit, and, when asked directly, he flatly denied it. Sure, that was in D1, but that doesn't mean it doesn't continue to apply.

Besides, I wouldn't want to lynch until he came back anyways. If that means twiddling thumbs for a few days, well, so be it. But I'm committed at this point. Minimum, I think you mentioned that the role was unreasonable. I disagree completely. The Mod had no way to predict the unfortunate start the Night-aligned team would have. It doesn't make MoI a mini-IC either. It's solidly helpful, but it's also WIFOMy. I guess we're just seeing this theme completely differently, and I don't know what to say to resolve that.

Well, look, Hindu/Flash/Minimum, it was easy to dismiss MoI on D1 when we had no scum flips. I took the same approach that Flash did early on: if we find scum among the three, then we should go for it, but we shouldn't let it influence our decision otherwise. Now it's kind of turned out to be a little more serious. Let's be frank: a lot more serious. You can't just dismiss it so easily. It's the elephant in the room.

...um, I don't get it. I'm the one who's been screaming, "The one-in-three is not a town gambit!" Why do you keep addressing these arguments to me? I'm agreeing with you. Also, for the record, petapan is the "IC", not MoI.

If MoI is scum... then jailkeeping would stop the shot. Odds are that they will not cross-kill. Why would we not play with the odds? I mean, that's your only reason for letting scumMoI get his shot off, right? That he may hit the other scum? If we're 1/1/13 right now, there would be a 1/12 chance that MoI would inadvertently kill the other scum, and an 11/12 chance he'd hit a townie (and potentially another PR).

I'm trying to think if you're clever enough to fake this. There's a flaw in this plan (I mean, aside from the silly "We want MoI to crosskill!" argument). Can you figure out what it is?

[Minimum]

Awesome. This will be like candy.

Tammy, quick, if you've been following along here and there, then what are your reads off the top of your head? Did you notice that your slot was obvscum?

(And no vig has claimed--Llamarble probably died because of his hider target.)

Blah. I feel like I have nothing to say while we wait on MoI.

...but...

...aren't you the one who said we should completely ignore the 1 in 3, anyway? Why is that a reason for you to do absolutely nothing right now?

Oh, comments on Gamma's arguments in favour of Red being town? While you're at it, comments on whatever unspecified subject you like?

[Minimum]

(I'm just making scattered replies to several people right now.)

Tammy, I know you're still online. This isn't quick. What are you afraid of?

Shmugen, sorry, but I actually think your claim makes you MORE likely to be Commexo. If you think you were targeted last night after you'd claimed redirector, then you'd have basically been outed scum to the other team unless you tried to justify it after the fact. Actually, the protown move would have been to keep your mouth shut and try to eat another nightkill. (That said, given Nuwen's attack on Tierce, I think she made a lot more sense as a capital-N Night kill target than Shmugen would.)

Questions for you:

How would you compare your play in this game to that in Chrono Trigger?

What exactly makes you so sure that scum can't use actions and kills on the same night?

Given that you've already revealed your abilities, can you fullclaim your role and character?

Lastly...so you think MagnaofIllusion is town? How much more town do you find him than Bella, Matt/Tammy, or both?

====

(By the way, I have two problems. 1) I should have more rock-solid townreads than this, given the game state. 2) Quite a few of my suspects seem to have spent the entire game going, "Shinori is scum! And so is Staeg! Look, they're clearly bussing each other. Oh, and UT is scum, too!")

[Minimum]

If we get down to Commexo hunting being the right play, I'll put in the effort that shouldn't be required to prove my innocence. Namely that I can stall the game out by forcing someone else to target me, ideally someone who will receive proof that their target changed, and Commexo will be forced to no-kill in order to keep suspicion on me.

I have two abilities, I can use one a night. One forces someone to target me, the other makes me immune to the first kill attempt on me each night. It's not quite bulletproof, I admit, but as we have no evidence of a vig, it's damn close.

Hmm, so this does seem confirmable.

Say you targeted OAFE the tracker, and he tried to investigate me, for example. Would his result that night be, "Shmugen targeted OAFE?" "Minimum targeted OAFE?"

p-edit: um...shush. You weren't supposed to have read the post where I called you something other than obvscum, yet.

[Minimum]

Actually, Tammy, this might be self-serving on your part, but can you try to explain Matt's town vs. scum meta (preferably with examples from Heroes of Comedy and Heterosexual Revolution)? Why do you think this game is more similar?

And yes, I would have liked your answers to be as instantaneous as possible. I think you're easier to read when you react to things on the spot and play more by the seat of your pants (case in point: the last Westeros game).

By the way, sword_of_omens? (I told you these posts were completely scattered.) Which reads of RedCoyote's did you agree with (since you called his reads decent)?

[Minimum]

For the record, Tammy, I was just goading you to answer more quickly. I don't

actually

expect you to be constantly refreshing the page.

But let me put it this way. In the game where we were all scum on different teams and Faraday and I flashwagoned you for no reason whatsoever, I

definitely

felt that you were nervous. (I talked myself out of it when you had a breakdown and I went, "Emotional = InnoTammy," but I was evil, anyway, so it's hard to untangle my actual beliefs from what stances were convenient to take.) I doubt you'd have come across as equally nervous if you'd shown up two hours later.

Also, I know how much you hyperventilate in scum QTs.

But furthermore, just extrapolating from how

I'd

behave...if I replaced into a scum slot under a lot of pressure, and someone immediately pounced on me and called me obvscum, my first reaction would be to panic. I'd then take some time to compose a reasonable, townish-sounding reply that'd get my attacker off my back. In retrospect, it's somewhat similar to how Tierce behaved. (At least, Fate called her on trying to fake nonchalance.)

Do you think that your posts so far would have been any different if you were the opposite alignment?

(Since "over-aggressive anger" vs. "genuine frustration" is pretty subjective, I think I'll check out both games for myself and get back to you.)

[Minimum]

Nexus, are you ever going to post in this thread?

(I had something to ask RC, but it's late and I've been spamming too much, so I'll let the thread breathe and save it for tomorrow.)

[Minimum]

To be honest, I don't think this discussion is really alignment-relevant, and your time would be better spent catching up. If you think my (admittedly heavy-handed) reaction test wouldn't have worked if you were scum, then, um, thanks for telling me?

That said, in retrospect, it was a bit callous for me to bring that up without taking into account what you were going through at the time. I'm sorry again about your grandfather, although words are kind of meaningless, and I'm impressed that you stuck out the game even in spite of all the RL pressure.

(Now I'm really not posting anymore. I'm sorry to anyone who has to catch up with my spamming tomorrow morning.

At least it's not a wall.

)

[Minimum]

Re: 2)

If we get down to Commexo hunting being the right play, I'll put in the effort that shouldn't be required to prove my innocence. Namely that I can stall the game out by forcing someone else to target me, ideally someone who will receive proof that their target changed, and Commexo will be forced to no-kill in order to keep suspicion on me.

That implies you'd be confirmed if you redirected someone onto yourself and there were two kills. Say (hypothetically) I targeted MagnaofIllusion with a useless investigative power (let's say namecop that will get fakeclaim results). You targeted me. I'd then be redirected onto you, and you'd be confirmed town because I'd get a result like Malingo, right? Am I missing something? That would confirm that you used your self-redirect ability. I'm still missing how that confirms you didn't kill someone the same night you used it.

And I'm pretty sure hito won't answer people who ask "What happens if Shmugen targets me tonight?" It's your role. I think he'd at the very least let a self-redirector know if he gave people misleading results (like making a namecop think, "Oh, I targeted MagnaofIllusion last night, and they're Malingo!") Did you ask something like this the moment you saw your role PM and get an evasive answer, Shmugen?

Here's my problem with your stance on the three. You think MoI is the most likely of them to flip town...but now you think the best strategy is for him to hammer/be lynched today, "just so we know for sure that he's Informed"?

[Minimum]

Red getting back to you:

Ah, Minimum, I think I'm prejudicing you based on earlier in the game. I've reread your posts and your context has been duly noted; I retract your name from that group. I don't know what to tell you, Mina. I'm not quite as scrupulous as I used to be. It's been a long time coming. I'm just losing the heart for it, I guess. I still don't know what you're getting at with this Jailkeeper thing. I have no real interest in playing games with you though, so I'll just leave it as a disagreement.

Actually, I'd still like an answer to this. I don't get your plan. In which scenario exactly are you saying we should jailkeep MagnaofIllusion?

=============
Shmugen, my problem with your stance on MagnaofIllusion is that in

theory

, it's plausible. But townies tend not to be willing to sacrifice their town reads "just to clear things up." It feels like a needless compromise this early if you think he's the least likely to be scum of the three. Why exactly wouldn't MoI saying, "I am DEFINITELY an informed townie" for the ten millionth time be enough to clear up that if he's town, he's informed?

Also, you said you didn't consider a namecop. But...you didn't consider a tracker, either? Or a cop? All of these would also get bad results if you targeted them. (I mean, it didn't occur to you that a cop might target a Night player, be redirected onto you, and then get a Day result and then mistakenly clear the scum?) I feel like you revealed for no good reason, but you haven't put any thought into how to play the role. Who did you redirect on N1, and why?

That said, it may not be possible to confirm you're not Commexo, but we CAN confirm that you're a self-redirector.

Hey, Shmugen, I have the beginnings of a plan (although it has a couple of flaws). When you ask hito the investigative role question, also ask what happens if you redirect a jailkeeper power. Also, let's say hypothetically that you could also kill, and did so the same night that you redirected. Would your ability resolve before the jailkeep and redirect petapan onto yourself, thus blocking any other actions you take? Or would the jailkeep block your redirect? And no, don't say, "hito would NEVER tell me about, so I won't even bother--just make petapan do it." That's standard night action resolution, and hito is very meticulous about details like that. I want both you and petapan to ask him, and then compare notes.

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*sigh*

I knew this seemed too easy.

How did you just realize this? What jogged your memory? Did hito tell you when you asked the jailkeeper question? Why did you make excuses for why you didn't ask how your redirect would work? (I still think questions like "Would an investigative role get a misleading result or find out they were redirected?" is one of the first things I'd ask with that role.

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I'll be embarrassed if it turns out that you actually did screw up your fakeclaim and I ended up giving it away to you.

I know I've been really annoying, and I'll leave you alone soon, but can you explain what you mean about the blocks interfering with your self-heal? I'm not sure I follow.

For what it's worth, I've been reading Abarat 2, and I've got to the part where Malingo uses spells to fight off a group of bullies. I'll reread the section again, but it makes perfect flavour sense for his role to redirect a target onto himself (one of his spells made whoever attacks him strike themselves) and zero flavor sense for it to be the mixed-up version. Also, "Reflector."

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So

play the game

.

Oh, woe is you. We can't LYNCH for another twenty-four hours. Would we have really quicklynched someone before this point, anyway, had it not been for the 1 in 3?

Why are the people using that as an excuse to prod-dodge the same people who've spent the most time complaining that we should engage in Pure Scumhunting^TM? (Well, there's also Seraphim, but he's probably scum anyway for having tried to defend himself with "Oh, I just look suspicious because I'm a really bad player; look, it says so in my sig!" He definitely didn't use that excuse when he was a lynch option in the first

Abarat

game.) I assume that if you think there are more worthwhile leads to pursue than Magna's claim, you'll actually pursue them? I mean, nothing is stopping you from rereading or attacking the people you should theoretically suspect more than Bella, Tammy, or MagnaofIllusion.

I'd ask you a generic "What do you think of Players X, Y, and Z?" question, but if you're interested in finding scum, you'll do it yourself without someone holding your hand.

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(Actually, some of the pro-1-in-3 voices have been prod-dodging, too. But at least they're not whining as much about it?)

Shmugen, did you remember that you'd already claimed the reflector (i.e., redirect onto the target, not onto yourself) variant of the role?

Tammy, how's your reread coming along? To answer your question, I've probably been more...CES-like than usual. I've been more calculated in the questions I ask, and played a more closed game, I think. Part of that has been his direct influence. (For example, when I caught Untrod Tripod's nonsensical stance on chesskid--which incidentally, increases the odds that you're partnered to him --I wanted to call him on it right away, but CES insisted we wait to see if UT kept lurking while under no pressure. And then we argued over how long to wait, because I was afraid we'd die before we told people about the catch.) CES also wants hydras to speak as a unified front, which means I'm saving some of my waffling for AIM and the hydra QT. But my playstyle has changed, lately; I've felt increasingly that long lists of reads do little but make everyone else coo over how

protown

you are, and that my posting should have a goal.

(Speaking of which, CES says your townreads are "naive.")

(p-edit: who was the bitchy one, me or Hindu? I thought my post was pretty reasonable.)

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It's fine, Shmugen. (For the record, that's why I was so annoying about your claim in the first place--I thought I'd caught you in a contradiction and got excited. )

4nxiety, Quilford is probably this hydra's top suspect right now. His posting today seems like he's given up, and makes me a lot more confident in this read. My big reservation on him--and Tammy--is that although scum bus their buddies (and this looks like a bus-happy team), they usually don't make an effort to link two of their scumbuddies together and seal the fate of the other if one dies. But given Shinori's role, I'd expect him to be the sacrificial member of his team. That said, I personally think the better strategic move is to use today's mechanic to resolve the 1 in 3 and save Quilford for tomorrow.

That was actually me prod-dodging with style while I waited on MoI, but ok.

Ah. So style = demoralizing the town and making up an excuse for why you didn't feel like contributing? ("I swear, I'd be useful if I could, but I can't when that pesky MoI is V/LA and you retards are dumb enough to consider that his roleclaim might be true.")

Hindu, you're a *~Protown Leader~*, remember? The last we've got! You have to live up to the burden on your shoulders!

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I think my voice has been somewhat different this game, so you're probably not imagining it (at least, I believe that you believe it, particularly before seeing your PM).

And I...don't actually have any idea of what he meant. He just...wanted me to tell you that, for some reason.

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Um...that post wasn't even a reaction test, Tammy. It's exactly what I think--I'm not worried that you disliked like my "tone", particularly if you were just skimming. Just catch up with the thread.

(That said, I just ISO'd myself to see your PoV and realized that both CES and I were independently obvtown. No, this isn't a joke--I'm that self-absorbed. How didn't you notice, Tammy? You keep bringing CES into it, too, so clearly it's not just that I've been slightly meaner and more decisive this game.)

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You know, in retrospect, the unexplained vote tactic doesn't work as well as I thought it did. Because all I can really say to it is, "...um, okay?"

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I was actually being dead serious with that question, by the way. You implied that you looked up our posts in context, which means you actually reread Minimum beyond just casual skimming before you saw your role PM. And you kept name-dropping CES as though he confuses you even more than I do, probably as a "lol CES, he's so unreadable!" Except I actually think his posts have been pretty transparent and protown for CES (particularly his interaction with Tierce).

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Minimum has become incredibly obvtown and Tammy managed to shoot all of MattP's towncred to hell. I was pretty sure about Bella being the 1in3 but I'm not so sure anymore.

I wish I could engage in this game more. I really do.

Well, Tammy's most recent tantrum has sent her into

negative

town cred (and Tammy, I'll have a lot more to say in response to those posts when I get a chance--for now, shush for a bit).

Seraphim, do you think I'm just OMGUS-ing, or that she's really and truly scum? Do you want to join the wagon?

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You're not Seraphim, Tammy. I'd like to know his opinion, given that he was around, and also that he said you looked bad but didn't put his vote where his mouth was. Besides, someone who can see how obvtown I am clearly must have good judgment. But he seems to have gone silent, even though he was visible in this forum for some time after I asked him my question. Pity.

(I'm leaving for the next few hours. Like I said, Tammy, I'll answer you later.)

It is theoretically possible to OMGUS the player you're voting, though, if you're not 100% convinced in the accuracy of your vote and said player's attack on you predisposes you to think of her.

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EBWOP: *predisposes you to think worse of her.

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The honest answer? Not a chance, Tammy. I'd need something like a cop guilty before I risked suiciding on anyone (I'm never that confident in a scumread), and an actual group suspect (who'd be lynched anyway) should be the one to do it.

(I still have more I want to say to you, but I've been busy this weekend.)

AGar, you keep repeating that you want MattP to hammer Quilford. Thoughts on Tammy? Do you agree with Seraphim's and 4nxi3ty's assessments of her play? Your reads have been fairly static today.

Also, s_o_o, 1) I asked you a question about your RC read, 2) why have you been paying a lot more attention to your other games than this one? 3) Why are you playing completely differently from how you were in FF6 Mafia and Chrono Trigger? (CES told me you were mislynch bait there, but I ISO'd you, and you seemed a lot more passionate in that game.)

(And

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Sorry to be boring, but there's some stuff I'm waffling over, and I'm afraid of a flashwagon:

unvote

Um...Seraphim? Is there a reason you want Tammy to be the lynch and Bella the hammer instead of vice versa?

Flash, if the reason MoI is lying is "Because I'm awesome at set-up speculation," I'm not biting. You said something equally over-the-top about OAFE's claim. Certain things he's done have set off alarm bells (his voting pattern, his "MINIMUM IS CONTRADICTING SCUM ATTACKING POOR INNOCENT TIERCE

who I'll suddenly flip-flop on later in the day

TO SAVE THEIR BUDDY CHESSKID BECAUSE THEY CLEARLY GOT LLAMARBLE'S HIDE TARGET WRONG" exchange with us where he clung to obtuseness beyond reason, posts that read as though he's intentionally riling people up--which I know he's deliberately done as a tactic as scum), and CES is convinced you're town. But I'm still sceptical that he'd risk this as scum unless he knew one of them would flip Night (and even then, it's a silly move with a SK).

That said, MoI, I still want that fullclaim. Also, which of Tammy and Bella would you prefer to lynch? Which would you prefer to hammer?

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I'm also eagerly awaiting Tammy's promised catch-up post. I think I'll save my thoughts on her case on me until then.

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*pulls a Faraday*

Hey, Quilford. Who are your top three suspects? Rank them in order of whom you'd most like to lynch to least.

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eraphim, do you think I'm just OMGUS-ing, or that she's really and truly scum? Do you want to join the wagon?

I don't see too much of a point in moving my vote around until MoI shows up. Tammy's entrance into the thread has not been sitting well with me and hopefully I'll get a chance to reread the conversation you two have been having. I don't think your vote is OMGUS.

If it's worth anything, I dislike Bella's absence from the thread even more than Tammy's posting.

What changed from here?

(I also think your accusations against Tammy have been really vague, with an undercurrent of "look at how BAD she looks!" mudslinging. 4nxi3ty attacked her for the same thing, but it felt more genuine. More explanation of where this read is coming from would be nice.)

p-edit: I missed that rule. Interesting. (But I still don't think there was any conflict with Letheo's role as claimed--not every mod has the same philosophy in designing roles.)

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Um...MoI?

You also know that you have a guardian angel, although you don't know who.

There exists in this game

exactly one role aligned with Day

that may, at least once, choose any target they like and prevent factional abilities from working on them. You do not know the exact details of this ability. There

may

be other roles that prevent factional abilities from working by other means.

So is your theory that petapan is scum and the real doctor is staying silent? But furthermore, that he's a scum jailkeeper, given that you harp on the fact that there exist OTHER roles that prevent factional abilities (which means you believe his claim)?

(The way it dawned on Shmugen that he'd mixed up his role makes me think he's more likely town. If he's scum, then hito definitely provided him that fakeclaim role PM at the beginning of the game and he genuinely misread it, but even so, I buy his thought process. Either way, based on flavour and the mix-up, that's 100% either his role or fakeclaim PM--particularly BP being called "feather steel.")

And fullclaim. Now. Name, flavour, everything.

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WAIT A MINUTE.

I'm at work right now, so can't comment. But don't lynch yet. 1) I stopped being really suspicious of Tammy a few days ago, actually (I much prefer a Quilford lynch) 2) I have a STRONG gut scum read on MoI based on his play, the way he seems to be trying his hardest to prevent both the Tammy/Bella hammer plan and petapan from being cleared (and peta's still confirmed, because the guaranteed role is supposed to protect a target FROM active/factional abilties), and his refusal to nameclaim, and 3) if AGar blocked Llamarble, that means he didn't hide behind anyone! Why were there three deaths on N1?

P-edit: MoI, there is no reason whatsoever for you not to claim your CHARACTER. None. Zero. If you were someone like Finnegan Hob, you'd have been happy to claim so that we'd stop wasting our breath doubting you.

VOTE: MagnaofIllusion

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Um...guys?

Doesn't this plan mean that if he's scum, he just won't check in until the deadline, and we're forced to lynch Tammy? There's no plurality lynch at deadline, right? Or am I missing something?

(I also think Tammy will very likely flip town at this point--her compliance compared to Quilford's lurking is a towntell.)

Hmm...

Guys, let's try this.

VOTE: Bella

She's a wild card, I don't suspect AND her death will stop people from debating the 1 in 3. And yet I'm unsure enough on her that I believe there's a real chance the hammer will suicide.

Quilford, would you prefer to hammer Bella instead?

(Also...MoI, if you're planning on counterclaiming petapan as the guardian, you're getting auto-lynched unless you do it today.)

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EBWOP: I don't suspect petapan and Tammy as much.

Shmugen, I think Flash is probably town, by the way.

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Awesome. So if Quilford flips Night, Tammy is confirmed

not

his partner.

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Is it wrong that I still kind of want to lynch Bella (or possibly another suspect) as long as Quilford agrees to hammer, instead? At least this way we get either a two-for-one kill or a scum death on someone who isn't confirmed. And Quilford was obvscum before his claim if you'd read Scummies Mafia, anyway.

After all, Quilford, there's at least a decent chance that Bella is on the other scumteam. It's the only chance you have to save yourself.

Shmugen, honestly, if petapan doesn't like the self-jailkeep plan, I'd say either make yourself bulletproof or just redirect whoever you want without telling us...but if your ability doesn't work on factional abilities, then what's the point? Also, why do you want me to direct your "blade"?

But my thoughts:

Gamma and petapan are town. I think Flash, AGar, and you are probtown. (I didn't feel this confidently about AGar until his claim, though.)

Tammy's paranoia of our slot is DEFINITELY real (some of her points were silly, but it's silly in an "omigod, you're out to get me, and I'm going to imagine phantom motivations to your every action!" way, and not a "let me twist your behaviour to make you look bad"). I have extensive experience with her meta, and I know this isn't how she'd fake suspicion. I was actually trying to bait Seraphim onto the wagon Friday night to see if he was paying attention to the fact that her OMGUS that made her look "bad" wasn't actually

scummy

, but no one else but Flash noticed it. As a caveat, I'll mention that CES disagrees that this is a towntell, and actually thinks this suggests Mafia-on-SK (or vice versa) based on how much she defends that it's genuine and that there's a SK out there. But anyway, I'm pretty sure Quilford isn't gambiting, and she really isn't his scumbuddy; I also think her reactions to the hammer plan and confidence she'd flip town looked genuine.

'm leaning town on 4nxiety. It seems like he's been trying and arguing in what he believes today.

Hindu is actually quite null for me--I'm not getting the "Town town town!" feeling I usually do. I think he's much more likely to be Commexo than Night, though. I'm on the fence to sword_of_omens; I've had much more positive experiences with him. That said, he's made a couple of posts that sounded vaguely genuine (for example, harping on MoI's "Carrion" slip). I still haven't checked the post that he liked of RC's; I'd asked the question about RC's reads because I don't recall Red Coyote expressing opinions that were either similar to his or particularly accurate. S_o_o could be scum, I guess. IIRC, his reads have been consistent, but somewhat static (his MoI suspicions have been for the same thing for the past few days, for example), but I'd have to check back.

So that leaves Seraphim and Red Coyote. The former I think is scummy and opportunistic, and really isn't playing in character. I think CES actually had a weak town read on him on N2 (based in part on his forgetting Tierce was UT's replacement), but he hasn't mentioned Seraphim to me lately. Red I was starting to think might have been town and buying Gamma's reasoning (except for the "gut" part), but his stances today have bugged the crap out of me--going from pushing the 1 in 3 (and discussing little else but the theory) to suddenly being willing to vote outside the 3, to voting Tammy. He always looks oily, but I could have sworn he was a lot more analytical and worked harder in the cases he's made when I've played with his town self. Also, thanks to MoI for fucking up my attempt to get him to

accidentally

townslip by going, "Why did you think the jailkeep would stop the kill?" and handing it to him. (I haven't read MoI's case on him, yet; it's probably a frame case, anyway.) I'd probably rank my top suspects outside of the 3 as Seraphim>Red Coyote>sword_of_omens, but I'm not confident on this at all.

And lastly, one of Bella/MoI is scum has to be scum...and if Quilford is Commexo, only one, because I don't think they'd fake their heated spat. I've already told you my thoughts on MoI, and I'll add what CES has told me in the QT: MoI not pushing the 1 in 3 today is a scum claim. He'd have been foaming at the mouth to get them lynched if he really knew we had a guaranteed shot at two scum. And it saddens me that he probably will not be lynched this game if he's scum due to the people convinced that he's petty enough to do something completely illogical, and he'll probably end up in a LYLO with Tammy and Bella both alive at some point. Bella could really go either way for me; I don't think she's said anything particularly out of character for either alignment.

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...someone should probably unvote.

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Because we have a chance of getting a double-lynch today. We'd have got a shitload MORE of information today if Bella and Tammy hammered the other (or refused to hammer the other).

I really, really think that quicklynching Quilford right now looks good on the surface (confirmed scum lynch! Whoo!) but is a trap. It's the wrong way to use this mechanic. At least let's wait a bit.

Well, fucking congratulation on ensuring you won't be lynched until D6 at the earliest if you're scum, MoI.

P-ediit: actually, if people (multiple people) are dead-set on lynching Tammy before LYLO, then I almost think we should do it today...IF Bella or MoI hammers. I want this one in three bullshit to end once and for all...and furthermore, if we get two town flips, then yay, TWO confirmed scum tomorrow. I would be a lot more confident in her alignment if she'd posted long reads and cases after she knew she was going down, admittedly.

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*sigh*

And if we'd let the day go on longer, then maybe we'd have got some nice juicy information from whom was willing to hammer whom. It could have netted us ANOTHER confirmed scum.

We could have at least tried to call Bella's bluff and see if she'd have really hammered Tammy.

MoI, why were you so eager to volunteer to hammer confirmed scum?

Also, this dawned on me. Just to clear up MY obsession with one scum in Bella/MoI? Um...WTF? Shouldn't you have a similar obsession?

Hindu, is your position that MagnaofIllusion is town (since you don't want him to hammer)...but lying about the 1 in 3, because Tammy and Bella are also town?

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Vote: MagnaofIllusion

This is non-negotiable.

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MagnaofIllusion is obviously scum, petapan.

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TammyNight still almost certainly requires Quilford to not to have known the rules to how the Day worked (given the "1of3") and TammySK certainly implies MoINight and is just generally unlikely.

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the reason i'm outing this is because it's likely i blocked a kill last night so i don't want the other half of the communal roleblocker to out even though i have an inkling of who they might be anyway

I wouldn't assume a kill was prevented last Night, personally.

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Why do you have to steal my thunder, Gamma?

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Why do you have to steal my thunder, Gamma?

YOUR thunder?

Not like scumhuntingwise but in terms of getting him lynched ("This is non-negotiable").

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What he's saying is that he caught MoI lying about his role, and assumed it was because he was scum because he didn't think MoI was stupid or arrogant enough to try and pull that bullshit and hold onto it so long to the detriment of the town. Even I didn't think MoI was that much of a fucking douchebag, and I hate that guy. Guess I overestimated his worth as a human being.

You know what my favourite part was?

That when Gamma came forward, MoI still didn't back down from his claim. And had the fucking gall to act smug over it, as though anyone who suspected him was so

dumb

when his lie got him into that mess. When he is far and away the (town) player who has harmed his faction the most this game.

And that he outed three players' roles (including the guardian), and was totally going to keep his mouth shut until after both Tammy

and

Bella were lynched.

And that I fucking wasted hours and hours on a wild goose chase, agonizing over his roleclaim, looking for the one scum in that group, believing there could only be one scum elsewhere, making plans based on his claim and completely going down the wrong track, all because I believed that no one would deliberately string the town along for several days in a row.

Unless it turns out that he's a death godfather or there's some weird role interaction that explains everything (and hito almost explicitly told me there was no way MoI could have any information whatsoever about the set-up when CES and I asked), then wow. MagnaofIllusion's reputation is finished--not that he hadn't already made enemies with half the players on this site. Just wow.

The best thing I can say is that in retrospect, his Quilford hammer was a good move.

So Gamma, given that you apparently have a super-powerful role, why did you say you'd gain no useful information beyond Finnegan Hob being confirmed town? Also, did Staeg's PM say anything about factional abilities or a Key?

Also, your vote is terrible and superficial.

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In retrospect, the above post was probably the kind of thing that hito didn't want us to discuss in the thread. Sorry. I've just wanted to vent since the thread was locked.

At least Bella is probably town?

Unlike me, he didn't think MoI was capable of holding up a gambit to the very end. Also, half the game joined him in that thought.

Out of curiosity, what made you realize this? I never got what made you so certain all along that it was a lie. I still am baffled by the motivations behind this.

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Oh. Fun fact.

AGar claimed he would block Red and Seraphim on his last night alive. If Mrs. Scattamun also roleblocked those two, then unless the SK and Night faction double-killed (or unless petapan was silly and claimed BP rather than reveal someone whose kill he might have blocked), exactly ONE of Red Coyote and Seraphim is scum of either flavour. The other is confirmed.

(For the record, it would have been nice if petapan had claimed whom he'd roleblock tonight--thus clearing him--rather than pull a transparent gambit. This game and gambits.)

Other fun fact: if Mrs. Scattamun roleblocked MattP and NOT Quilford, then Tammy is close to confirmed scum.

Hypoclaim time: If I am Mrs. Scattamun, I roleblocked Quilford--but NOT Tammy--on N2, and Red Coyote and Seraphim on N3.

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(...oh, never mind. petapan almost certainly roleblocked someone--we just have no idea whom--on N3. And on N4, except we have no idea who said mystery confirmed townie is. God fucking damn people and their moronic "clever" gambits.)

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i'm diamanda, sister of the fantomaya. i'm a town jailkeeper, i can abduct people with my flying cloth, which

prevents them from using active/factional abilities

and from being targeted by them. (incidentally, i have no idea whether or not my sisters are in the council or not)

I suppose it could be another gambit, but I don't see the upside to it. (Also, I thought non-consecutive meant "cannot target the

same player

twice.)

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Okay, never mind. I didn't pay attention to the line underneath petapan's flip--just assumed he'd lied about ever being BP because he was dead. I apologize to petapan--I should have realized that only VIs on MoI's level would lie for no good reason. I'm not sure why he said he was a jailkeeper, though.

Ignore what I said before. If he's actually BP, then that means he probably did block the kill. So unfortunately, all that means is:

1) At most one of Red and Seraphim can be scum if both Scattamuns protected the same people.

2) Tammy is probably scum if Mrs. Scattamun blocked Tammy and NOT Quilford.

I'd say Mrs. Scattamun comes forward only if Tammy and NOT Quilford was blocked N2...but otherwise, should keep his mouth shut (but hypoclaims if she also targeted Seraphim and Red Coyote.

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Vote: RedCoyote

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I remember quilford implying the mafia had a rolecop in a way that I believed. If they do I doubt it would function as gamma claims his does. Can anyone think of a test to distinguish a traditional rolecop and gammas claimed role? I can't.

Doesn't matter. Quilford is unlikely to do that if Gamma was going around softclaiming his role (also, it didn't seem plausible to me.)

(The transcendental thing is fake claims?)

Gamma, your vote is silly; Mina just cares too much sometimes.

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So what you're saying is, s_o_o, is that you'd like to go after some easy targets Today?

Re: nightkills, it's actually all fairly meaningless. There were 2 obvious targets that the second kill could've gone to and petapan must've abducted another likely kill; even if you assume scum would never no-kill, at the very least they wouldn't've particularly motivated to avoid petapan's protection, so we can't really conclude a kill was prevented. Although there is still the point that if we lynch scum from among {Seraphim, RedCoyote}, it would confirm the other one.

(Petapan targetting Tammy is unlikely given that he didn't actually roleblock people.)

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Yeah, no. This lynch is bad and lazy.

Especially given that claim.

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and MINIMUM answer that question tammy's asking because i asked it too and forgot about it. RC is one of my strongest town reads.

Well, then it's really unlikely that I'll convince you otherwise and explaining my read is pointless?

What I mean by "especially given his claim" is that it's a very understated role when the two scum we have left are likely Commexo and Carrion.

Unvote, vote: sword_of_omens

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PoE + other stuff, like his last post and general vibe.

oh fun another sword vote even though i just explained why I think he's town with no actual reason behind it whatsoever
that is so great

The first point is fair but only suggests he's not Night. Second point is just bogus; giving lots of silly reasons is a scum tell (and the "Actually..." preceding it clashes with your interpretation anyway.)

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*shrug*

VT is an understated role? How so?

I was talking more the VT role name combo, although I am actually just assuming it's an unimportant character.

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No? It's very fair to assume she blocked Quilford and then Seraphim and Redcoyote. The latter doesn't even matter that much. Her claiming would mostly just get her nightkilled.

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Scattamun* and Finnegan*, but yes. And keeping them alive is extra useful because a shot on them is in particular guaranteed not to be a crosskill.

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The fact that he wanted Tammy dead at some point previous to things that actually mattered doesn't strike me as the least bit relevant?

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That's why I said this, just fyi:

Re: nightkills, it's actually all fairly meaningless. There were 2 obvious targets that the second kill could've gone to and petapan must've abducted another likely kill; even if you assume scum would never no-kill, at the very least they wouldn't've particularly motivated to avoid petapan's protection, so we can't really conclude a kill was prevented. Although there is still the point that if we lynch scum from among {Seraphim, RedCoyote}, it would confirm the other one.

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Hint: vote for sword_of_omens.

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Would you settle for me pointing out that Shmugen isn't getting lynched anyway?

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Sword_of_omens isn't going to claim scum and doom his faction with 10 alive, silly zergling.

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RedCoyote.

What hito posted wasn't so much a clarification as it was an admission of error; he's going to post it whenever it's brought to his attention regardless of anything else (and as it happens, I mentioned something relevant just 2 posts before).

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Commexo seems more likely.

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@Flash: My guess is Bella is Night

Why?

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I have a problem with this game, which is why I asked that previous question. I have enough plausible SK suspects. But when it comes to finding the last Night aligned player, I don't have anyone I really like for it, and that deeply bothers me. SoO isn't my best SK guess, but he is my best mafia guess, and I still think hes more likely SK than Night. What this means to me is that if SoO isn't the last mafia, then someone I've written off as town (likely Bella, Tammy, or Gamma) is instead. And if I have to deal with that I'd rather deal with it sooner than later.

I'd rather deal with it later, actually, because if we wait, it might resolve itself (and certainly SoO is a good lynch regardless).

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(Also, I am considering taking you up on that offer, Gamma; let me see if I can get Mina to do one of them first.)

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2 potential town BPs would explain the Commexo win condition:

You are Commexo aligned. You win when there are three or fewer players alive, you are one of those players, and it is currently a Session. (If four players are alive, and one is lynched, you will win - the win condition "checks" after the lynch occurs but before a Recess is called.) Additionally, the check for this win condition occurs before the checks for the Day/Night win conditions. Please confirm by responding to this PM with your role name.

And the combination of non-consecutive + petapan's actual role would normally guarantee he gets nightkilled anyway, I think.

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Anyway, i still think Bella is Night aligned, but no one will join me on this…

The fact that s_o_o specified Night here is probably a pretty decent scum tell (and if you believe that his attack on MoI with the slip thing was genuine, then you should also expect him to make this kind of scum tell).

Let's string him up.

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Unvote

(More later.)

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I guess petapan could abduct a townie in a 3p Night scenario and give the town another Day to lynch the SK. I'd still argue that Shmugen's role makes more sense than usual given that win condition since it can be fairly harsh otherwise on the SK if it ends up in obvtown hands (petapan's role doesn't quite work the same way with the other stuff).

I want to lynch RedCoyote but given the activity and 6 to lynch, I don't think that's feasible right now. I'll probably voting Seraphim then; he makes little sense as Night but I can't rule him out as SK (you don't happen to have a completed game as SK, do you, Seraphim?)

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No. In fact, it's almost entirely meaningless.

Gamma, didn't UT have like 2 posts at that time? How much attention could that post reasonably have given him?

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Vote: Seraphim

Rather him than Shmu.

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Self-hammer if you're scum or you're town and it's real close to deadline. Otherwise, even just doing nothing is simply better.

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Um...

...so I've been really busy over the past week or so, and have been completely neglecting this game...

...but...

I...kind of think that Seraphim is town, now, and that since there has to be at least one scum outside of Red Coyote and Seraphim,

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(no pun intended), it's probably Shmugen by PoE. (Aside from the fact that I don't think that two BPs are likely even with the SK win condition, I'm not fond of his play at all today--it just makes my gut itch. It feels like he's appealing to fear by consistently harping on the key, has shallow reads, seems concerned with self-preservation, and keeps pushing us to lynch one of RC/Seraphim when on the contrary, we know one of them HAS to be innocent.) But CES and I have disagreed on most of our reads this day phase--for example, I stopped suspecting Seraphim almost the moment he stopped trusting him.

I don't suppose...other people could vote Shmugen? Since, you know, I can't? (Or, well, I could, but that would be a bit douchey, and I actually don't have that much conviction in this read because I suck at Mafia and because he's dropped a few towntells.)

Tammy, why have you done nothing today, though? It feels like you've never actually caught up with the thread.

By the way, Gamma, Rojo Pixler is probably the Commexo. Night could be either Christopher Carrion or Mater Motley (although it wouldn't surprise me if hito made them some random baddie).

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Actually, I don't even know. Maybe you should all ignore me.

.______________.

This is why I was letting CES do all the posting.

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Ooh nice, Hindu got killed. I don't mind that at all.

Goodness gracious. Mina, look, I don't know what your problem with me is, but I can assure you that you're barking up the wrong tree. Also, do you dismiss this key thing entirely even after Quilford's flip?

Care to explain what you're talking about? You're even barely mentioned in our last few posts.

Vote: RedCoyote

Will iso everyone but Shmugen and s_o_o tomorrow.

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Shmugen is town. Holy fuck. Here's where my lesser reads lie in the order I want to kill them.

RC
Seraphim
Tammy
SoO

I was the original keyholder. As such, it should be pretty obvious I'm confirmed town unless you're an idiot. Shmugen is the person the key is safest with as well as being my strongest townread.

He may not be doing meta-game epitome of town play, but he's also not the best or most experienced player around, so you can't hold that against him. If you ever played with him before, you'll know it's pretty easy to read him out of the gate. You are on the wrong track. This lynch is one of those things where I look at the game, what's happening in it, and I can't believe what's going on. I simply can't. Have you guys been trying to read Shmugen or not paid him any attention until it came to PoE? Back on Day 1 and 2, it was very obvious he was town. I would honestly rather you lynch Bella than this guy and I've only had to defend her all game but she's being a derp now anyways.

I think this post right here is an excellent reason not to even consider lynching outside of {RedCoyote, Tammy} Today, considering there were 2 obvious targets in Gammagooey and sword_of_omens.

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I don't think Minimum makes any sense whatsoever for night, so if they are scum they are commexo. Flash makes sense as both and quite frankly I keep going back and forth between them because Flash said some things yesterday that make it more likely that they are commexo, while Minimum said some things that make it seem less likely that they are and if Flash is commexo then I've been wrong on Minimum and they are town, which would make me have to take a closer look at Bella or rethink my RC read as if Minimum is town then my pet theory is shit and I've been wrong on a lot.

If Flash is scum, he's definitely a Commexo. There was an earlier interaction thing with Nexus and metaing Staeg that's unlikely to have been faked and is totally something he has done as town and not the way I'd expect him to handle a scum buddy. Also, it's just the only way I buy him being this townie-looking.

Red Coyote's points on Flash are compelling and reading through Flash there is no reason to not consider him night aligned. There is the interaction between him and Gamma starting with Post 1530 which made me a bit twitchy when I read it because it seemed as though he was trying to find out whether or not Gamma could bust a fake claim. Post 1689 has me especially concerned considering the commexo win condition as he states he'd rather take care of night sooner than later. I didn't think anything of it at the time, but taking the win condition into consideration it seems like something one would want to take care of.

The role would be ridiculous if it could bust fake claims...

And I don't see why FlashCommexo'd be worried about getting rid of Night. And post 1689 certainly has a valid point?

In a similar vein I don't like minimum's interaction with shmugen starting at Post 1212 as it read like someone verifying what would happen if they were targeted rather than trying to determine whether or not they were fake claiming and therefore determinant of alignment.

That was sort of the point. It was supposed to read like boring mundane stuff to try and draw him in. I'm entirely happy with how that worked out.

What is also interesting is the automatic look to one post of Hinduragi's and the suggestion to narrow down the lynch to between Red Coyote and me. It also appears they are selectively reading or postulating who was dangerous and confirmed. I would say that Gamma, Sword of Omens, Hinduragi and Shmugen were all obvious kill targets and I wouldn't be surprised if any of them ended up dead. (Oh actually Hinduragi being dead and Sword of Omens being alive makes me feel better about Bella actually...I can't see why she'd kill Gamma and definitely don't see her killing Hinduragi over Sword of Omens unless she was going for WIFOM but she seems to be a more practical player).

Shmugen wasn't getting nightkilled, silly. I do consider Gamma and s_o_o to have had a clear edge over Hindu in that department. And the fact that Hindu was both pro-{Bella, Shmugen}, anti-{RC, you} does rather strongly implicate the latter camp. (Flash and me are of course town despite your best efforts.)

I'm finding it a bit odd that of everyone minimum keeps assigning kills to a faction. (The tracker is commexo, Nuwen is night, Hindu is RC or me, seems off).

You're a faction, then? What's with the "of everyone" here?

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Minimum, I was referring to the fact that you were consistently trying to get people to lynch me instead of Seraphim. Even at the last second you were pushing Seraphim as town.

Not really?

Quilford and Tierce putting Flash on their town list isn't weird because 1) chamber tends to be obvtown and 2) we already know they had at most 1 partner who looked townish, possibly zero. There's no particular reason for scum not to have all-town town lists either (it's a priori unlikely sure, but once we have the info that all the others have flipped town, that stops being true).

Me having a non-budging town read on them just means I'm cool.

Why is the MoIlynch the one you care about? The fact that Flash and I both did enough scumhunting that we were able to realize that MoI was lying speaks in our favour, surely, and then Gamma went and claimed a result which makes all the other votes completely uninformative.

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Minimum's constant critiques of my play have also emasculated me somewhat.

Don't think I've criticized you all that much in recent Days? (Except just now.) If you're bothered by my constant and neverending suspicion of you, that's fine but that really doesn't work that well if you're town. Maybe you should try confessing?

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Coming into today I was pretty sold on mafia!tammy and sk!shmu, but this latest RC post makes me wonder if hes the SK over Shmu. Its just such a bad attack for all the wrong reasons. I still can't see mafia!RedCoyote.

I've just about convinced myself on Tammytown now. It might be worth mentioning that Tammy doesn't have the best scum game. Now combine that with Hindu dying and his reads and RedCoyote has to be scum (he's being kind enough to play like it too).

(Shmu also vaguely reads town to me currently, just for the record.)

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I have no flavour knowledge, how easy would it have been to guess the names of the flipped mafia so far? Is the SK guess that I've seen thrown around a good one? Could gamma have been killed for his stated intention to investigate that name, which could prove someone as the sk (shmu)?

Not particularly easy although the final Night guy is probably Carrion and guessable. Yes. Yes (but Gamma seemed like an obvious kill regardless.)

P-edit: note, RedCoyote, that that was explicitly pushing Shmugen as the alternative?

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The me and you both as sk/mafia point is just so absurd. I think its more likely that one of us is mafia/sk and fooled the other than that we both thought we could fool the other long enough that we actually got to the point of MAD where we needed each other. (and I think the chance that you are mafia is exactly 0, sk is non 0 I guess, but not by much)

Well yeah. I had a silly pet theory in WF too; they're not very interesting if they're not in some sense outlandish.

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No? Finnegan Hob is still out there.

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Yes.

Hm. Fair enough. I'd need to think it through a bit better, but two confirmed town could be a lot better than one confirmed town at this point.

We get the extra confirmed town regardless.

And the remaining Night is probably one of the big baddies (Carrion or Mater Motley), so what Shmugen said about assuming there's only one Night role that could use the Key.

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Riveting.

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Yarr. He said "active abilities" when he claimed.

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Everyone not voting for RedCoyote should explain themselves.

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open your mind a bit to the idea that they may be playing so "obvtown" because they're scum.

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(Oh and when did I mention the Scattamun block?

Also, what's the scum incentive for putting heat on Gamma? Are you really going to pretend that the MoIlynch is not basically entirely MoI's fault? Do you think scum would just come forth and say that they know MoI's lying that easily?

Your hydra question is uninteresting. Also,what is your position on us alignmentwise?)

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Probably should've just looked up the answer to that last question. You may ignore it and I'll just simply say that you're completely wrong as to who has been doing most of the posting.

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Look here now - if no one feels like properly playing this game, well I still do, so just let me pick the lynches?

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Tierce befouling herself would be useless for town as it would make her untargettable (as her power is a scum-aid)
Quilford would need the KEY to make his power work anyway..so yeh..pretty worthless

Tierce being untargettable pales in comparison to having a protection target being made untargettable or one of her team mates turning into a Ninja Strongman. And it still works on the entirety of Quilford's power, so really your argument against Shmugen's role becomes merely the fact that it doesn't work on exactly one of the 4 flipped scum roles. That's not a good argument.

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Can we lynch the guy now who's pretending that "he's too obvtown to be scum" is something you can reject as an argument?

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? I'm not. Following?

That's what he did in #1831. (His buddy thing is also weird given that he didn't even know it was me.)

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Or hammer yourself; that also works.

And tell me again how me disagreeing with you politically is a scumtell...? Perhaps you can take me to Mafia Discussion on this one, but we're not going to get past agreeing to disagree in this game, let me tell you.

I mean, I can say anyone is obvtown that I want to. It doesn't necessarily make it so in your eyes.

You are allowed to disagree as to who is obvtown. But you do have to accept that being obvtown makes someone unlikely to be scum.

I'm not trying to buddy to one head and dismiss the other.

Not what I meant. You were suggesting that my read of Flash was based in part on personal stuff ("buddy buddy mindset") which is just sort of out there if it's Mina-Chamber/Nexus as opposed to CES-chamber.

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That was really stupid, Bella. Scum have to crosskill tonight in order to win. Thanks for outing yourself, though.

Shmugen, if you are town, then you redirect tonight. You DEFINITELY do not self-protect under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES AT ALL. NONE. If you do, that's an SK claim.

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Interesting. Looks like a calculated gambit coming from bulletproof Night to me. RedCoyote flipping Commexo would be super sweet now.

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The gambit I was thinking of was Bella hammers RC (whom she believes town last I heard) then kills sword_of_omens - it's then 5 alive and we can't afford to lynch Night, so we have to try for the SK - if we fail, then it's a 4p SK-Night-Town-Town endgame. Then BellaNight kills the SK overnight (presumably she feels strongly it's someone or mayhap she even has info) while the SK kills a townie since in doing so the SK wins if Bella misses whereas if the SK doesn't shoot, the SK simply loses. This entire plan obviously requires her to be bulletproof (as does really any kind of gambit in which she willingly outs herself at this stage of the game). This may be on the convoluted side, I admit. Maybe she just figured she could hammer a town and then have 2 townies die overnight to set-up a good winning situation (which makes a lot of sense if she's Commexo) but that does require opposing scum to shoot, which seems hopeful.

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Time for Flash to claim.

It's worth noting that the combination of Bulletproof + the SK win condition is obscene - it'd mean scum'd need 3 scum to be able to endgame the SK and even if the scum do have >2 members left, the scum still need the SK to shoot town at least once to obtain victory (e.g. SK, 4 scum, 3 town is still won by the SK if he can nightkill the first two times; SK, 2 scum, 1-3 town is simply an SK win). Furthermore, assuming Bella BPNight (which fits), bulletproof SK is definitely ruled out since in that case the SK would have just killed, say, me and it'd be 1-1-2 and an SK victory, so that points heavily towards Shmutown.

Tammy or Flash for the SK and Bella as the final Night; that's what I think it is and what seems like the only reasonable scenario to consider.

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She basically claimed scum which should guarantee that she's bulletproof. Bulletproof SK is ridiculous given the win condition. Thus, therefore, she's Night. It just fits better with the quickhammer anyway in that right now if she was the SK, we could totes afford to lynch her whereas we can't if she's Night.

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Other head popping in to say:

1) I still don't share CES's confident townread on Shmugen (particularly since it seems like hito to be zany and think outside the box along the lines of, "Let's make an SK EXTRA powerful, because it's so unfair that they never have a decent chance of winning, even when they're NK immune"--never mind that Malingo could be a fakeclaim, anyway). Also, I hate myself if it turns out that Shmugen's badass evil power was redirecting players onto him rather than themselves, and that scumslip was

real

.

2) The last night-aligned player should claim. I'm dead serious. He or she loses automatically if we lynch him OR a non-SK suspect today, but has a chance with a crosskill tonight if we miss our lynch.

Flash, have you ever played with Tammy before?

And now that you've claimed VT, you can explain why you were so confident that OAFE was lying (and confused by the fact he flipped town) AND that MoI was lying beyond a shadow of a doubt (seriously, how could you have figured it out on D1)? Because I was convinced you had to be roled for either of those stances to make sense. You really came across as though you had extra information.

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Shmugen, remind me of which night you received the key, again. I'm too lazy to check.

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Oh, Flash, why is Tammy Mafia and not Commexo? Go into details, please.

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WAIT.

WAIT WAIT WAIT.

If we lynch Night today, then Commexo kills someone and then automatically wins the game.

Unless[/u] there's a living protective role!

We don't have a way of stopping a nightkill, so there's only one person it can be!

HOLY SHIT.

HOLY HOLY SHIT.

YOU ARE A GENIUS.

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Why does Quilford refusing to hammer Tammy when there was supposed to be info implicating Tammy on the table, Flash? QuilfordNight wouldn't suicide if his final buddy was on a timer (and it's a fairly logical move if Bella was the final Night.)

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(So much for CES apologizing to me after the game for ignoring my reads. ._____.)

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EBWOP: Why does [stuff] point to TammyNight?

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I suffer here from having never been a third party, would Commexo not have neat active abilities, or would they all be factional?

Standard is to make them active unless you have a specific reason not to.

But yes, Tammy or Flash for SK.

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Don't remember there being much volunteering involved, personally.

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Nope. He claimed because there was a wagon on him.

P-edit: Bella, just claim Night.

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Hito's beginning of Day post did have the line about the Commexo having an imminent victory in it at first by the bye, so that should rule out any possible doubt we might have on that score.

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The fact that Flash has just proven that you're confirmed town. Enjoy it.

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Yes, I know it's not there now, Bella.

Bella, claim Night. You can still win if we lynch wrong out of Tammy/Flash.

Shmugen, you being confirmed town definitely makes a difference. That's all we care about right now.

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If you're going to pretend to be town, you could at least give us some silly reason as to why you quickhammered a town read?

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If you're town, you should claim Night and try to trick the real Night into counterclaiming you?

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It still makes more sense than whatever the hell you're doing?

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SK would've killed you last Night if you had. Try again.