Open 421-Pamplona II: Electric Bullgaloo! Game over

[callforjudgement]

Hmm, the very first case is different from my analysis; if the townies

don't

cross-protect, then suddenly the Mafia shooting at a townie gives an SK win if the SK shoots the Mafia. It's thus in town's interest to persuade the SK that they won't cross-protect, but even though it's to their advantage to prove they will, I don't see any way for them to actually do that. So your analysis is correct here, not mine.

The correct play for the SK is to no-kill with a very high probability (say 99%), and kill a townie the rest of the time. (And make this plan known to the other players.) That way, the Mafia can't dare to shoot the SK, because they'd be risking an instant loss if they did. Eventually, they'll hit that 1% chance, and kill a townie, and the Mafia will no-kill or whiff on a doctor in the process; they can't possibly know when the chance is going to be hit. (Use a 10% or even 20% chance if you want to speed the process up, but this raises the risk of the Mafia trying to get lucky, which is bad for you no matter whether they time it right or not.) In other words, the game will go to 1:1:1. (Also of note: you could simply lynch a townie to speed the process up; no player would have any objections to that, as the Mafia and town can't do anything about that, and the SK doesn't want to do anything about it.) So we'll end up in 1:1:1 for sure.

I believe 1:1:1 to be usually a town win but not always; it depends strongly on when the individual players can get online. (I've changed my mind somewhat from my previous writeup of the strategy, due to noticing extra strategies for both town and scum.) I'll go write up my thoughts on it in MD some time.

[Near]

Isn't playing for a draw when you can play to win breaking site rules?

Even if this were true, it's so complex.

At 1:1:1, the only course of action that mafia can perform to win (rather than to draw) is to target the SK.
Similarly, the only course of action that SK can perform to win (rather than to draw) is to target the mafia.

BUT both mafia and SK knows this. Mafia knows that SK has to target the mafia. SK knows that mafia has to target the SK.

And they both knows that such combination of actions result in town win.

WHICH MEANS. they are both playing to lose. And playing to lose would be a violation of the site rules.

So their actions must be randomized, so it gives them some chance at win or draw.

[Near]

Hmm, the very first case is different from my analysis; if the townies

don't

cross-protect, then suddenly the Mafia shooting at a townie gives an SK win if the SK shoots the Mafia. It's thus in town's interest to persuade the SK that they won't cross-protect, but even though it's to their advantage to prove they will, I don't see any way for them to actually do that. So your analysis is correct here, not mine.

The correct play for the SK is to no-kill with a very high probability (say 99%), and kill a townie the rest of the time. (And make this plan known to the other players.) That way, the Mafia can't dare to shoot the SK, because they'd be risking an instant loss if they did. Eventually, they'll hit that 1% chance, and kill a townie, and the Mafia will no-kill or whiff on a doctor in the process; they can't possibly know when the chance is going to be hit. (Use a 10% or even 20% chance if you want to speed the process up, but this raises the risk of the Mafia trying to get lucky, which is bad for you no matter whether they time it right or not.) In other words, the game will go to 1:1:1. (Also of note: you could simply lynch a townie to speed the process up; no player would have any objections to that, as the Mafia and town can't do anything about that, and the SK doesn't want to do anything about it.) So we'll end up in 1:1:1 for sure.

I believe 1:1:1 to be usually a town win but not always; it depends strongly on when the individual players can get online. (I've changed my mind somewhat from my previous writeup of the strategy, due to noticing extra strategies for both town and scum.) I'll go write up my thoughts on it in MD some time.

Excellent point! As long as SK submits "no-kill" almost always (and since mafia knows this), this game should go into 1:1:1.

[Near]

Here's the excel spread sheet with outcomes based on different strategies from each faction. Strategy of each faction is defined by probabilities of different night actions.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... DhqSEFGUEE

[Rainbowdash]

But RBD, RM's words cannot be used to predict her actions. It entirely possible that all three factions were satisfied with a draw at 2:1:1.

Actually it can. In a 1:1:1 situation given the SK win condition, mafia has to kill the SK or they have no hope of winning. By that logic a strongman SK would automatically lose the game if they kill a doctor because there is no option left for scum except killing the SK. As doctors cross protect a NK immune SK is out of the question of being able to make it a 1:1:1 situation.

I ran this through over and over, and there was no way for any faction to get a win without a massive blunder from a different faction.

@Psyche - Playing for a draw is playing to your win condition if there is no way that you have control over your ability to win, but simply your ability not to lose. A draw was the best all factions had to hope for outside of a game critical mistake such as forgetting that the SK has a strongman ability.

This was a forced draw outside of poor play from the day we should have had the win but didnt

[Near]

RBD. You are correct that mafia has no hope of winning unless they target the SK.

But SK also has no hope of winning unless they target the mafia.

In which case, town will win 100%.

And since both mafia and SK know this, they are not playing to win if they target each other all the time.

[Rainbowdash]

RBD. You are correct that mafia has no hope of winning unless they target the SK.

But SK also has no hope of winning unless they target the mafia.

Thats why its a draw. Neither can kill the other without the town winning while at the same time neither can be lynched.

I spent a good couple hours trying to see if there was a salvageable win and I really dont think there was one that doesnt include "and somepony throws the game by accident" which is what happened, but not in our favor.

[Near]

RBD. You are correct that mafia has no hope of winning unless they target the SK.

But SK also has no hope of winning unless they target the mafia.

Thats why its a draw. Neither can kill the other without the town winning while at the same time neither can be lynched.

I spent a good couple hours trying to see if there was a salvageable win and I really dont think there was one that doesnt include "and somepony throws the game by accident" which is what happened, but not in our favor.

We are talking about 1:1:1 here?

So SK knowing that mafia can't always target the SK, allows SK to act. For example, if SK thought that Mafia would not target anyone for sure, SK can simply target the mafia to win. But SK doesn't know this, so it seems complicated.

At 2:1:1, whether the game ends in a draw, I guess, is up to SK. But I don't know if SK should be satisfied with a draw or move the game into 1:1:1. Need some advanced game theory insight into this...

[Rainbowdash]

Well...

from 3:2:1 no lynch is the only option and one scum dies while we try and kill the SK bringin us to

2:2:1

Here it should no lynch, where SK should target scum again and this time if scum hit the SK it brings it to 2:1 where scum loses
If scum kill a doc its 1:1:1 where town wins again its forced then to

2:1:1 with the town advantage. At this point it gets tricky and is where deals are made

Mafia can only win with a dead SK which has to happen at the same time or later than a dead doctor - Mafia is playing for a draw or major blunder
Town has to have a crosskill or a SK lynch (mafia wont allow) or a mafia lynch with SK NK immun (SK wont allow) - Town is playing for a crosskill ie 1:1:1 where they win. Technically best town move was to selfvote and hope scum missed that.
SK can win any 2 player endgame, so that is what they are aiming for, this cant happen without strongman and town blunder (did happen) or mafia gamethrowing

In the 2:1:1 the no lynch is forced

The theory behind the 1:1:1 in day is:

Town will not vote as it loses them the game
This means its a no lynch
As its a no lynch, mafia must kill SK to have a win chance as SK will otherwise target doctor
SK knows they will be killed, so will avoid this scenario as strongman - In it they decide if they want to kill doctor for mafia win or mafia for town win
Doctor just chills, they are screwed either way and it comes down to what SK does.

Because of this, a 1:1:1 is something that is a forced loss to the SK so something a SK will not allow to happen. A 2:1:1 cannot become a 1:1:1 without SK allowing it to SO a 2:1:1 is a draw.

A 2:2:1 is forced to become a 2:1:1
A 3:2:1 is forced to become a 2:2:1

That means a 3:2:1 with ideal play is a draw. Town just blundered so it went to a SK win.

[kondi2424]

...or you could have not claimed (like you should have) and had an entirely different outcome.

...or we could have lynched you the day before that (like we should have) and had an entirely different outcome.

[Rainbowdash]

...or you could have not claimed (like you should have) and had an entirely different outcome.

Going for SK was the only thing that worked because to be town I would have to believe that all doctors were fakeclaiming or be willing to lynch a partner. One made zero sense and the other cut deep into win chances. It was one of those things where not winning right there basically made it impossible for us to win period.

...or we could have lynched you the day before that (like we should have) and had an entirely different outcome.

UN destroyed your slots credibility so all I had to do was logic attack what was left, which attacking a doctor made really easy to do.

[Near]

Rainbowdash wrote

Town will not vote as it loses them the game
This means its a no lynch

As its a no lynch, mafia must kill SK to have a win chance as SK will otherwise target doctor
SK knows they will be killed, so will avoid this scenario as strongman - In it they decide if they want to kill doctor for mafia win or mafia for town win

Doctor just chills, they are screwed either way and it comes down to what SK does.

Bolded is where we disagree. Talking about 1:1:1 here.

What we agree on:
1) Mafia has to kill SK to have a chance to win outright.

But also, according to my analysis here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p4290911
2) SK has to target the Mafia to have a chance to win outright.

Do we agree so far?

Combination of 1) and 2) would result in town win.

Both mafia and SK know that 1) and 2) are true. They also know that each other knows this.

So:

3) It is not required for mafia and SK to always perform 1) and 2). A game rule dictating such actions from mafia and SK would be dumb, as it simply means both mafia and SK are required to forfeit the game to Town.

And without such rules,

Again: always performing 1) and 2) equals auto loss for both SK and mafia
Sometimes performing 1) and 2) gives both SK and mafia chance to win, as well as a chance to tie.

Question is: what percent of times should SK target the mafia? the doctor?
How about for mafia, etc.

I feel these are complex question to answer.

[RachMarie]

Actually thanks to stupid AT and T I did not get a chance to say my words oh well. At least we have internet again now for the future.

[Rainbowdash]

SK can do whatever in that situation because they auto-win any 1:1 endgame, all they have to do is have a successful kill and live.

Mafia has to kill the SK, doing anything else is an auto-loss, so mafia targets SK is a given. If they dont kill and SK kills, they auto-lose.
SK knows they are dying so they play kingmaker and give the game to town or scum and hope a kill failed for some reason.

Breaking down more

M->T and SK->T = SK win
M->T and SK->M = SK win
M->SK and SK->T = M win
M->T and SK->T = SK win
M->null and SK->T = SK win
M->null and SK->M = SK win
M->T and SK->null = SK win
M->SK and SK->null = M win
M->SK and SK->M = T win

Only way M has a win is to kill the SK, nothing else can get them a win and a draw requires SK help. SK wins if they dont die and the kill, so they will kill.

In a 1:1:1 a strongman SK will lose 100% of the time, but they get to decide who wins.

[Near]

Is there something I am not understanding about the end game rule? We are assuming that mafia does not have any more JOAT or roleblocking power left, and that SK has strongman kill.

SK can do whatever in that situation because they auto-win any 1:1 endgame, all they have to do is have a successful kill and live.

How does SK auto win in SK:Mafia end game? Wouldn't this be a draw?

In 1:1:1, aside from doctor protecting the SK, SK has exactly the same power and win condition as mafia. No?

Maybe I am missing something.

[Psyche]

We should've quick no lynched.

[Rainbowdash]

In 1:1:1, aside from doctor protecting the SK, SK has exactly the same power and win condition as mafia. No?

Ruleset says SK auto-wins any two player endgame. Its why the wincondition of mafia is screwed up in this setup. I do agree with SK beats mafia in 1:1, but at any other even number mafia should win.

The way roles were rolled, it became literally impossible for us to win this game. Its why im pissed off still, the SK never makes a (logical) kill or even kills in most cases, so we play assuming there is no SK and are trapped in a force loss from the start essentially. So bad play from the SK costs us the game when I still think mafia played almost an ideal of a game as possible.

[Psyche]

If SK won, his play wasn't really so bad. Especially if it drove us to make assumptions that led to our downfall.

[drmyshotgun]

Was it just me who felt some James Bond villain vibe from RBD when he revealed to the entire Town his nefarious plans to overtake it? Psyche's henchman, and RachMarie's silent partner to RBD's mastermind (think Goldfinger).

M was Trevor and Q was Near/kunkstar.
Of course, James Bond was Bitmap.

Sorry, just random thought hehe.

[Bitmap]

You know what you guys should of done?

Lynched me D1.

[Rainbowdash]

You know what you guys should of done?

Lynched me D1.

We would have lost. I was terrified that inte was really a SK. D1 SK lynch with the massclaim was an auto-town win.

If SK won, his play wasn't really so bad. Especially if it drove us to make assumptions that led to our downfall.

Ehhh... it was unintentional good play. Arugeably given that they were suspect yeah it was smart to stay hidden, but that wasnt why Bit didnt kill on the second night. Ignoring the fact that we had to kill the role cop and hitting the only VT role when trying to kill scum just makes me think Bit got lucky more than played well. Ive seen worse play, but honestly I dont think they played what you could call a good game as SK - can point to many SKs who lost and I would say were better without second thought.

[Psyche]

Was it just me who felt some James Bond villain vibe from RBD when he revealed to the entire Town his nefarious plans to overtake it? Psyche's henchman, and RachMarie's silent partner to RBD's mastermind (think Goldfinger).

M was Trevor and Q was Near/kunkstar.
Of course, James Bond was Bitmap.

Sorry, just random thought hehe.

I was totally getting into it. :P

[Hoopla]