Mini 1,384: Dirty Dealing (Game over!)

[killerjester]

VOTE: Voidedmafia

MoI why are you town?

[killerjester]

I'm town because my role PM says so.

AP, is that a serious vote?

[killerjester]

Is reading that hard? There was two questions to you not one, so it follows I want answers to both.

Sorry I must've missed it. My question helps because it's making discussion.

[killerjester]

Are we nameclaiming? As in, the cards we got?

no

[killerjester]

Why do you think there are more than 3 scum?

[killerjester]

What do you find puzzling? The VC?

[killerjester]

Did you expressly just claim you don't understand why you're voting him?

[killerjester]

Parama why are you not daykilling the jester?

[killerjester]

What about Voided? Is it because he's mimicking Parama minus the drugs?

[killerjester]

It shouldn't matter which type of scum he is Parama.

[killerjester]

Let's lynch Nobody Special tomorrow.

[killerjester]

Think about it...

[killerjester]

Wait is he blue because he's the co-mod or blue because of a post restriction

[killerjester]

This game is so confusing. Shahrizai is town though.

[killerjester]

Why, Killer?

The confusing part? Probably the a combination between the three posting restrictions (so far) and MoI's hammer vote.

The Sharizai townread? There's no way she made that comment about GreyICE bussing if shotty was going to flip town.

[killerjester]

P-edit: KJ. What? If she is town then she doesnt know what shotgun will flip so why would his flip matter?

It's more of she is town because I can't imagine scum playing like that. Because scum

would

know what he'd flip.

MoI had presumably laid the hammer down. Scum wouldn't tie GreyICE to shotty via an incorrect bussing association if shotty was going to flip town.

[killerjester]

Piggy why is Shah scum?

[killerjester]

I'm pretty sure Nobody is a player, and not a co-mod. But that had me confused too.

I've agreed with Soul's stance on Shah from D1. If she's scum, I'm not seeing it. Explain it better maybe?

[killerjester]

I still think Shah is town tbh. I don't like Piggy's flipflopping on Soul, #385 conf scum, to a town read in #465, and back to a scumread in #475.

VOTE: Piggy

[killerjester]

I don't understand why you think NS gave you a scum-roster in #418.

[killerjester]

Alright let me get some reads in now that the gf is still asleep.

Voided feels like probable scum. Listing and responding to every single post seems to come from his scum meta more than it does his town. Yes he replaced in for that game but I'm not really seeing where he ever does this as town, even when he town-replaces. I also think scum-Void could have acted overeager for the hammer on shotty.

Nobody Special has been traditionally hard to read for me. I thought his blue-posting might've been a PR, now I'm guessing it was completely nonsense. I'd like to see more reads from NS. Null.

MoI isn't strikingly scummy, but he's giving me bad vibes. His interactions with Voided don't feel right, and his Shah vote seems to come out of nowhere for the most part. I recall him saying he was going to review the case, but I don't recall his followup in that regard. Null-scum for now.

GreyICE felt town D1 although I couldn't put my finger on why. Don't know where he's vanished off to now.

I think this answers NS's question as well.

[killerjester]

What would your initial response have been if PM died last night?

Are we assuming he'd flip town?

[killerjester]

Yes, I mean assume he flipped VT. Basically Im saying imagine someone not as active died instead of MoI/VM/Me/Soul

If that happened I'd be looking towards the individual trying to insist that the NK meant something.

VOTE: Voided
My feelings on him near the end of D2 still hold true.

[killerjester]

That's a sore misrepresentation. PbPA comes from VM's scum meta, and I don't like how forced his D1 hammer reaction felt.

[killerjester]

Playing League of Legends. You can join me if you want.

[killerjester]

Okay let's see here. The hammer felt forced because, as others have said, it shouldn't matter who gets the hammer. VM himself has agreed on this point, stating that he was simply reacting to what happened instead of thinking about it. In my opinion, town players tend to take the side of thoughtful input, while scum are more interested in appearances and making town-looking reactions.

As far as your "lolol lurk scum" posts, please stop adopting the sword in a field complex.

And finally, where do you see me using NK-derived logic to push the agenda of a VM lynch?

[killerjester]

She didn't even seem scummy to me. Really.

[killerjester]

Remind me again how my play matches DV Mafia?

Both games include a post by post analysis. I didn't find any examples where you've done PbPA in your town games, even ones that you have replaced into. If I've missed something feel free to dig up your town meta for me.

[killerjester]

I probably won't be claiming today. Going back to look at VM and others.

[killerjester]

Why are we claiming again?

[killerjester]

NS who are the scum.

[killerjester]

Why would someone's first card be one of the cards that you lost?

[killerjester]

Maybe that we all started with J, Q, or K cards (besides Shah, obviously).

[killerjester]

Q of clubs, role name as well.

Then 7 of hearts, 9 of spades, 2 of clubs, respectively. I have all my cards presently.

[killerjester]

NS next I suppose, my scumread on Voided has weakened significantly.

UNVOTE:

[killerjester]

Um, Cliff notes, please? Best you can?

He fakeclaimed scum as town in 422. Presumably he's learned that he doesn't understand gambits, so we should expect his townplay to claim truthfully.

[killerjester]

Yea, what he said.

[killerjester]

Has your win condition changed at all?

[killerjester]

Okay I put them together in a spreadsheet. But I'm not seeing the pattern.

[killerjester]

We don't have PM or Grey's card.

[killerjester]

Look, we already know that NS needs to die. WHy are you trying to start another wagon when there's a viable one staring right at us?

Because if you buy into the patterns, it makes most logical sense to lynch a black king.

[killerjester]

Shotty was being productive post-hammer. And unless the scum are committing ritual seppuku every night I'm fairly convinced Parama and MoI are town as well.

My role PM says nothing about Soul, PM, or the nature of Clubs at all.

[killerjester]

NS bothers me, Sally as well. NS for faking a post restriction. At the time, it definitely seemed to be him mocking the status of nobody as a co-mod. In the same sense that SC is using purple I thought NS was adopting blue. I don't see the town-motivation in faking a PR. Sally because..well pretty much I just liked Grey's point about balancing PRs between town and scum. Yes I'm being shameless on this one.

I'm not buying into the speculation on cards at the moment because after thinking it over I really don't feel like there are even 3 scum. And certainly no one should be trying to IIoA their way to victory lane. If we see 2 scum flips and the game still isn't over, I'll probably come back to this point and reconsider the possibility of a pattern.

VOTE: Nobody Special

[killerjester]

Do you really think there are THREE scum considering A. Jester (weakens town by guaranteeing a mislynch) B. Town lovers (weakens town by hastening town deaths) C. Post restrictions (weakens town by hindering communication) and D. NO OTHER TOWN PRs?

[killerjester]

PLs are stupid anyway. Anyone taking a look at NS's play can tell PM isn't his buddy.

[killerjester]

Scumbuddies don't make the interaction NS did in #907.

While there does seem to be some pattern to the cards (two spades are lovers, two hearts have post restrictions) I'm not seeing how scum fit into any discernible pattern. NS flip debunked the black theory while GreyICE debunked the king theory. Definitely does not feel like three scum, and it's hard to call it a pattern if two scum just happen to share a trait (Kings if PM is scum, Hearts if one of Piggy/Sally are scum)

Unless the pattern is Clubs/Diamonds being all VTs and scum being the odd-man-out in the respective Hearts and Spades suits.

Can we just have everyone claim? I have enough cards for a one shot doctor if anyone is seriously worried about dying.

[killerjester]

Kj you're not including the card mechanic in your balance.

Scum get cards too.

[killerjester]

If there's a pattern, Voided is scum. If there's no pattern, one of Piggy/Sally is scum.

PM looks like a VT from the mountainous speculation and Soul has been playing like a VT. I'm going through my trusty, dusty probability calculator to show why it's wrong to assume the card system makes up for lack of town PR.

PEDIT: Seriously, I leave tabs open when I do shit. I'm tired of people thinking that 'lurking' means anything. A real lurker wouldn't leave their account signed in.

[killerjester]

Q of clubs, role name as well.

Then 7 of hearts, 9 of spades, 2 of clubs, respectively. I have all my cards presently.

In addition, I'm a VT and have the 6 of spades.

[killerjester]

Do you keep your account logged in? Like do you click on that little box at the beginning?

No, so I presume the system logs me off eventually. But that arbitrary time seems to be significant because I've played entire League games and still be logged in because I kept the tab open.

Popcorning to.. Voided. Just a hunch.

I've given up on trying to calculate the probability because I don't know how to represent dead players cards going back into the deck, but certainly you can imagine 12 + 1 Joker being handed out in role PMs, 13 being handed out at D1, 11 going out D2. At this earliest point to make combinations how likely is it to make a pair to have a 1 shot follower for N2? Somewhere around 3/39 or 7.6%. Doctoring is even less likely since only combinations of 10-5, 9-6 or 8-7 total up to 15 (if you drew ace through 4 on either day, you're shit out of luck). The probability is around 6.1%, though not exact, and clearly jailkeeping on N2 is impossible.

Unless you want to suggest the bastard aspect is severely underpowering the town, I do not think this game would ever have 3 scum.

[killerjester]

Your cards as well, and who you popcorn to.

[killerjester]

I feel a gamebreaking strategy incoming. Brace for impact!

[killerjester]

As in you are going to make one, or Mehdi's?

Mehdi's, I'd love to hear it.

[killerjester]

At a glance, I like it. Are we sure scum kills are compulsory in SC games?

[killerjester]

Okay, but I think we should lynch today.

[killerjester]

Fine

VOTE: no lynch

[killerjester]

wat

[killerjester]

No forget it, I won't try to understand this game. I'll just take my win tyvm.