Micro 89 ~ Mafia Rarefaction Segunda (Game Over!)

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

VOTE: TwoUpstandingGentlemen

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why do you think you are unlynchable?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Both null at the moment. What tell are you referring to regarding Parama? Explain.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Parama, why did you vote TUG?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Because tierce did

So, was that a random vote?

What do you think of TUG's suspicion on you and why aren't you addressing it?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

VOTE: Aeris

List of questions feel contrived as if you don't have anything valuable to add but are desperately posting fluff.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

But FF you can now point out what is contrived about the questions. I actually want to know the answers to those things.

At the time I voted, it was partly a gut feeling. The way you made 3 questions to 3 separate people made me feel as though it was not spontaneous. Also, you say "

if he was a scum read, why not vote him

?" and "

I want to vote parama for apparently not knowing who boy George is

" came off as dissonant and my general feeling about your post was that it was scummy.

I know it is not a very good reason but it was a start and I voted anyways because it would generate discussion and hopefully make someone react in a scummy/townish way.

Your reaction was townish since you insisted that I explain my reads, didn't jump to conclusions, and wanted more discussion.

Trevor's reaction was scummy. Just a quote and a vote. No comments. Opportunistic as well since I have started arguing with a player meaning I have my hands full. Best move for scum is to jump in hoping that they won't be attacked because I was already busy attacking another player.

VOTE: Aeris

List of questions feel contrived as if you don't have anything valuable to add but are desperately posting fluff.

Vote: Fighting

Trevor, what is the reasoning for your vote?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Trevor

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Null because you are trolling.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay then, care to address TUG's suspicion on you?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Cool.

VOTE: Parama for ignoring suspicion under the guise of joking around.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Parama:
Can't decide if you are a troll or a legit player.

Also, "suspects everyone?" It is called scumhunting. Trying to figure out if people are town or scum, discussing reads, and analyzing reactions. I already explained three of my reads - Aeris and town, you and Trevor as scum. That's what town does. Saying "nah" is basically dodging the question. Scummy.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Not addressing suspicion hoping it would go away or that players get distracted instead of probing into it and figuring out if it is legitimate. I gave you a pass since I assumed you were a troll but since you are saying you are serious, no reason to hold back on lynching you now.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Misrepresenting = scum.

That is what I am saying.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

If the behavior you exhibited was serious, then it is likely you are scum. If you were just being a troll, it isn't alignment indicative.

The misrepresentation lies in your interpretation being that trolling is townish and being serious is scummy. Playing on words and oversimplifying explanations.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

At least one if not both of Trevor or Parama is scum.

Trevor has continued to post but didn't respond to my accusation.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't think Tierce is necessarily scum for being unpredictable - she did the same thing in the first Mafia Rarefaction game. It is however anti-town and unhelpful so you should probably share your reads.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

At least one if not both of Trevor or Parama is scum.

Trevor has continued to post but didn't respond to my accusation.

You're using the easiest reads in the book "desperately posting fluff" "because trolling/joking", the vote on you was for the bad aeris vote.

So,if you think I am scum, you should be at least giving a reason for your vote, shouldn't you? You are either convinced I am scum or you have a hunch I am scum and want to figure me out. If it is the former, if you were town, you would push for my lynch and if it is the latter, as town, you would at least ask me why I voted Aeris and what I felt was contrived about Aeris's post and try and figure out the motivations for my post. You are doing neither. You posted a lazy vote and disappeared and only responded when I called you out on it twice. Why are you being so reactive that I need to reach into your throat and pry your thoughts out of you?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

My original vote on you should've been self-explanatory seeing as I quoted the post I voted you for. I felt your reasoning was a scumline. You exaggerated a list of questions into "desperate fluff". It was the only thing you said that post. Not really avoiding you, just most of my posts prior to today have been from my phone.

So, why did you not inquire as to why I voted?

There were 3 things you could do:
- question me and vote
- just question
- just vote

The first puts pressure on me to answer, the second simply promotes discussion and the third does nothing useful. Explain the town motivation for choosing it.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Aeris, what about Parama's pushes seem honest to you? Yes, I too was unsure of his scumminess because he apparently has a tendency to troll but he admitted to being serious and his behavior is still suspicious.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Coz you are stupid?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I have exciting stuff about Parama & Trevor but I have finals as well so wall posts will have to wait till wednesday.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, question for TUG, what is your read on Parama?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Just answer the question.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why are you being deliberately unhelpful?

As to what I would do, I'll try to figure out whether you are town and think it is somehow "cool" to act like a dick or you are scum and are refusing to give your reads because it may implicate you as scum. Not sure which it is.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, then pressuring him to act pro-town might be helpful.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I refuse - what are you going to do about it?

Why do you believe that this response is helpful to town?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Info about his affiliation. He said that you were scum and then said that if you make a case, he will sheep you. Now, I've heard of sheeping townreads but sheeping a scumread is news to me. Giving a clear stance about his read on you will help us determine whether he is opportunistic scum or something happenned to change his read on you. If something did happen, we can find out what it is. In short, we probe, scumhunt and try to understand the motivations behind the actions of various players. Town loses the opportunity when we accept an "I won't answer" and do nothing about it.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, so I was waiting for Parama's reaction.

@ Parama, TUG claimed to have a scumread on you and now claims that nothing happenned to change that read. Why do you think he was willing to sheep you?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why do you think TUG was willing to sheep you when he claimed that you were scum? What do you imagine the motivation to be?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Anyways, I'll doubt you'll answer either since you likely scum.

The point of asking was to figure out if Parama suspects TUG for sheeping/saying they will sheep a scumread. I know for a fact that as town, I'd suspect someone if they sheep me while they maintain a scumread on me. As scum, I wouldn't. I'd be happy that they changed their position from attacking me to sheeping me and wouldn't want to mess it up by turning on them. Town motivation is to hunt scum. Scum motivation is to save themselves. Parama's motivation matches up with scum. The fact that he is refusing to think and analyze various possibilities points to scum.

That's an incredibly roundabout way of self-righteously defending yourself, I must say. I'm impressed, Fighting, but I'm still going to vote you.

The stupidity in this post is null. Town can be stupid, so can scum.

What is scummy is that he dodges the question and misrepresents a direct question as a "roundabout defense" clearly because he has no answer.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think the question was fairly clear. There is nothing about it that was difficult to understand or had hidden meanings. Somebody thinks you are scum. Then promises to sheep you. Why don't find it suspicious? I did. However, your lack of finding it suspicious makes me have a stronger scumread on you.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Aeris. An initial townread is well and good. What do you think of the new evidence against Parama? And Trevor as well. I don't have a townread on either of those players so convince me.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I like 120 too. Decisive, curt, not fluff. I don't consider the non-hammer to be necessarily a towntell though. Hammering Parama so soon in the day would have put Trevor in the hotseat regardless of Parama's affiliation. I've seen a game (Thor played that game too) where Thor was town and a scum blatantly said "I am not hammering." It is something that is alignment indicative and a totally plausible thing for scum to do. I am certain Parama is scum although I am starting to have doubts about Trevor. He still needs to post more though.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

* isn't alignment indicative.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am curious, why are you ignoring my posts?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Regarding the convincing point, why are you being passive about it? It is not like there are no votes on him and it is a real possibility he could get lynched. If you think he is town, you'd want to call off the dogs, right?

Anyways, I can see 194 potentially coming from Thor. Yeah, maybe he is playing mind-games. But if I were in Parama's place and town, and Thor who had me as a scumread suddenly says "make a case and I'll sheep," I think I'd be wary that he is so quickly putting aside his suspicion. Although if I were scum, "yay, I convinced Thor" would probably be the first thing on my mind. Maybe that is just me. More perspectives wouldn't hurt. What would you do?

The part about Parama not voting Trevor: you are essentially saying he is being too scummy to be scum, correct me if I am wrong. "Maybe I am reading too much into it" could come from fence-sitting scum. That wouldn't be alignment indicative either. Also, he continues dodging questions, avoiding the issue and going off on tangents. The most recent page is evidence of that. I guess you

could

WIFOM and say "would he really do that as scum" but that is just going to get us into an endless WIFOM cycle. Better to just pin down anti-town behavior right away, isn't it?

Can you elaborate on your post?
- How does the push on me seem natural. What do you consider 'natural' vs 'artificial'?
- What do you "like" about what I say?
- What don't you agree with about his push and what do you agree with?

New evidence on Trevor - basically avoiding the thread - being passive, casting a lazy vote and disappearing.

* Regarding mislynches, actually they don't win after two mislynches. If we mislynch twice, this goes into rarefaction. Two groups of 3P LYLO cells with one scum in each. Scum need to be in this game for the long run. Can you re-evaluate based on that? It would negate the refusal to hammer as necessarily a towntell. I've played this game once before - the LYLO blocks are really difficult for scum to get past.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Aeris:

Case on Trevor: no effort. I asked him a ton of questions 70 was the last I believe and his response is basically this:

Meh, don't really like that many lynches right now. I'll join any convincing bandwagon that isn't TUG/Parama/veggie. Stayin on F-16

Passiveness. No analysis, nothing. He didn't like that I said your post was contrived so votes me and sits on it while contributing absolutely nothing. I explained why I voted you, and also asked Trevor the reasoning for voting without promoting discussion. He is just avoiding discussion, sitting back and hoping the town destroy themselves. Trevor needs a wagon too.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Passive - I am saying "passive" because you cast a vote and sit on it without regard to new developments. You are still trying to justify your weak read on me as opposed to being open to re-evaluating it. Considering I am posting the most analysis out of anyone here, and trying very hard to probe into other player's motivation and scumhunting, I don't believe the only scum-read you would have as town is me. You are not trying to figure stuff out. You are not trying to determine anyone's affiliation. You are not trying to understand the motivation of other players. In short, you are not scumhunting.

"

F-16 is scum because he puts random bullshit like "not promoting discussion" or "avoiding the thread", or "being passive"."

This has also been explained. I remember telling you that I voted Aeris partly to see if anyone reacted in a scummy manner. I also said her insistence on demanding an explanation from me while not jumping to conclusions read as town whereas your unexplained vote read as scum. You have been ignoring the responses and parroting the same line that has been refuted.

You seem angry at the fact that you have to post. It is like you are irritated that you need to play this game. Mafia is a voluntary activity. If you don't want to play, please don't. If you do and you are town, at least post in the thread, contribute to discussion, try to figure out the affiliations of various players. Don't sit on a useless vote, get pissed off that you are being called out for not contributing, say you don't like the current wagons and leave it at that. You must have some opinions on the other players in the game. There has been plenty of stuff going on. For instance, what do you think of Parama's reaction to TUG?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Blatant prod dodge. We'll see if I post tonight or tomorrowish.

Please do, and if you're town, please post like town. Me being suspicious of over half the room is somewhat worrying for me.

You told Tierce that you are suspicious of half the room here but so far you have only given townreads and you aren't voting.

- You apparently think Parama's push on me is town motivated.
- But you disagree with what he is saying because you apparently "like" some of the things I said.
- You actively defend Trevor.
- You pass off TUG's promise of sheeping Parama as just "Thor."
- Now you say Ace of Spades is town.
- I don't know your read on Tierce but considering your post above, I am assuming that you think she is town as well, correct me if I am wrong?

So, who is scum? And who are those "half the people in the room" that you suspicious of? Other than Konowa, that is?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

- You seem to think Leafsnail's questioning of Konowa is good too. So, it seems like you have one scumread (Konowa) so far.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I've already explained that I was limited access with my phone for the first few days of the game. I didn't anticipate being so busy and mafiascum.net is not my first priority. You have this expectation for every player to post walls of stuff with their thoughts on every happening in the game. I do not think my vote is useless and will not change it unless I find I vote I like more. Things like me saying "I don't like this current wagon" or "Don't lynch in ____ players" offer plenty of contribution and I think I've opinionated everyone in the game.

Bare statements offer no contribution and don't allow anyone to see into your motivation. It seems like you have a lot to hide.

You also ignored my latest post and offered no response. Even after I pointed it out, you offer no response and complain about being busy. If you are busy, go on V/LA or replace out. Seriously. You are acting like doing us a favor by playing this game. Cut it out.

For instance, what do you think of Parama's reaction to TUG?

I have no resonating memory of this and after further review, Parama's reaction came in the RVS period where TUG was voted because he was a hydra/certain player. No reads.

I was referring to his reaction when TUG said that if he made a case, he would sheep him. You might want to go back and read the last few pages.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

EBWOP

@ Mod

, can you delete the previous post or fix tags? Thanks.

I've already explained that I was limited access with my phone for the first few days of the game. I didn't anticipate being so busy and mafiascum.net is not my first priority. You have this expectation for every player to post walls of stuff with their thoughts on every happening in the game. I do not think my vote is useless and will not change it unless I find I vote I like more. Things like me saying "I don't like this current wagon" or "Don't lynch in ____ players" offer plenty of contribution and I think I've opinionated everyone in the game.

Bare statements offer no contribution and don't allow anyone to see into your motivation. It seems like you have a lot to hide.

You also ignored my latest post and offered no response. Even after I pointed it out, you offer no response and complain about being busy. If you are busy, go on V/LA or replace out. Seriously. You are acting like doing us a favor by playing this game. Cut it out.

For instance, what do you think of Parama's reaction to TUG?

I have no resonating memory of this and after further review, Parama's reaction came in the RVS period where TUG was voted because he was a hydra/certain player. No reads.

[/quote][/quote]

I was referring to his reaction when TUG said that if he made a case, he would sheep him. You might want to go back and read the last few pages.[/quote]

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Stfu or offer substantial contribution. The players in this game are seriously pissing me off. Hope Tierce gets on soon.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I have been reading. I didn't understand your reads properly because you haven't been giving them clearly.

Anyways, could you respond to 229.

I have a *lot* of trouble buying Trevor as town. He is completely reactive as opposed to pro-active. I can buy TUG as Thor being Thor, Tierce is being pro-active, Leafsnail, I have a townread on based on his push on Parama. Maybe I am biased because I agree with him but similar thought processes usually mean similar affiliations.

I think what I have been trying to say in a nutshell is that I disagree with your reads because you are basically going the "too scummy to be scum" route. I mean, literally, there is not one pro-town thing that Ace of Spades did so, it would be great if you could explain that read. Why would you have a townread on AceOfSpades as opposed to say Tierce for instance?

Can you give me your take on 229?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

It is similar to you thinking Parama is town but not entirely agreeing with his case on me. Tierce as scum usually bandwagons. I've played two games with her as scum and she bandwagoned on the biggest wagon both times. As scum, she pushes lynches and doesn't probe into motivations as much. As town, she questions players a lot and tries to get inside their head and understand why they are doing what they are doing. Her read on Leaf seemed as such. She was trying to distinguish between scum posturing and town genuinely being suspicious. I don't agree with it because I was thinking the same thing as Leaf at that time (Tierce shouldn't keep her reads close to here chest) and said the same thing as well. So, I see the push as townish but the target as also town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

138 seemed townish because she wanted to know why Leaf didn't question her about existing reads.

She presses more on that in 161 and 166. I don't like the fact that she didn't attack until poked though. Let's see what she has to say.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Tierce, your case seems more scummy than town-motivated to me. This was exactly what I was talking about regarding how you as scum bandwagon onto players. I am strongly convinced you are scum based on that. I'll post more analysis but a brief version is this:

1) When you are scum, you usually wagon onto a player who is already being wagoned. This applies here. You claim that you are on the largest wagons always because you are the one pushing them. That misses my point. My point is that you *join* the largest/second largest wagon after others expressed suspicion of the wagoned players.

2) You make no attempt to interact with the player. As can be seen above, there are zero questions in the post. There are statements that end with a question mark, but those are merely rhetorical questions for which you have already made up your mind. you haven't interacted with me in the slightest.

3) The vote on Aeris has been explained about 20 times so far. A huge discussion took place about it and I gave my reads as to the reaction of various players. Don't tell you just now happenned to see it and

somehow

managed to miss the multiple explanations and analysis given based on the vote on Aeris.

4) The remaining parts are all hilarious exaggerations. Will come to that later.

5) Lots of buzzwords like "lousy justifications," "posturing," etc. I am convinced Tierce is scum.

UNVOTE: Parama
VOTE: Tierce

It is also fairly obvious Trevor is not scum as seen by how much Tierce defends him. It is fairly obvious Aeris is town as well. Parama, I am not too sure.

Here is the most damning evidence:

Parama--please start playing. I know you're capable of it and we don't have time or lynches in this game for that silliness. Knowing that Aeris is not a newbie, how does that affect your read on her?

Parama is pushing my lynch - me, your biggest sumread. If I am scum, he is doing everything right. From your perspective (thinking I am scum), you should be congratulating Parama because he stays focussed on me. Why do you tell him to "start playing?" In your opinion, he should be playing to absolute perfection by pushing a lynch on me, isn't he? Why do you call him out when he is pushing your scumread?

Anyways, I'll post more later and draw examples from Tierce's meta but Tierce-lynch today is absolutely essential.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think I am at L-1. I am the innocent child. I'll post more later.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

The mod reveals the innocent child at rarefaction (we know that my role exists as it is part of the setup information). I am assuming "what" refers to asking me why the mod hasn't confirmed me?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Konowa, what do you think of Tierce's behavioral analysis and why do you think it is scum-motivated to address behavioral analysis? Also, I had a final this morning. I said in my post that I would address Tierce's case later so why is the fact that I didn't address it cause for FOS?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

F-16: You mean for a vote?
And it was an L-1 vote.

Sorry, I don't follow. What are referring to?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Oh, you mean Konowa's vote. Yeah, I want to know why he thinks behavioral analysis is scummy. It seemed like he was stretching really hard to find a reason and ultimately landed on the fact that I posted behavioral analysis of Tierce as a reason to put me at L-1.

I think all the votes on me are based on poor reasoning but considering 4 people voted and there are only 2 scum, I am obviously way off and need to reconsider my reads. I'll certainly be killed tonight and this being my last day, I'll post a ton of reads and analysis. We have to lynch scum today to negate the benefit they got from outing the IC. We only have about 3 days left before deadline.

@ StefanB, why TUG?

@ Parama, considering we know I am town, does that change your read of TUG when he offered to sheep you if you make a case. I still want t know why you weren't suspicious of that.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't want to get to rarefaction. Lynch Fighting.

We know that an innocent child exists in the game based on the setup. No cc's confirms me as town even without mod confirmation.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Hmm, I guess I could see why you would think that considering I didn't post examples from her meta. I'll do it now.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I've played with Thor before and he is usually much more active than this. But then Thor has two scummies, I doubt it would be so easy to tell when he is scum (simply due to inactivity). I need to research Thor's meta later. I am busy doing Tierce's right now.

I don't get why he would offer to sheep Parama when he claimed that Parama was scum. The policylynch idea was bad. It is fairly obvious that inactives will be replaced. Overall, I don't know. Need more content from TUG especially Thor.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

How do I make a table here?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

How about Images?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Let's take a sample of Tierce's recent games:

TOWN

:

1) Mafia in Triplicate

: Tierce is pro-active right from the beginning of the game. She pressures NobodySpecial in #33. When NS votes her back, she questions him and demands explanations as to why he thinks she is scum. Her later switch to Saulres also feels comletely natural. She expresses slight suspicion on him, has a conversation with him at #163 and later votes him. The smooth progression of suspicion, and the desire to understand what is going on in the mind of her scumreads is seen here.

2) Micro 51

: A recent game I played with Tierce under my alt rapidcanyon. Right from the moment, she replaces in, she is actively scumhunting. She first suspects me here #57. Notice how she continues asking questions and probing for motivations. She responds to my arguments and asks a few more questions, demands explanations as to what kind of reactions I was expecting and what they mean about alignments. She continues going back and forth for 6 pages probing into every possible motivation and explaining why they are wrong or in some cases changing her reads.

SCUM

:

1) Black Flag Nightless

: Piggygal had 4 out of 6 votes to lynch when Sixty (Tierce/Vi hydra) places the fifth vote. This post was made by Tierce (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p4471773) where she places the L-1 vote and makes a case for lynching Piggygal. Most of the reasoning was terrible - the fact that Piggygal was joking somehow makes her scum, and using Piggygal's RVS votes to implicate her. A quick look at Sixty's ISO shows not much aggression and initiation of pressure. Essentially, she made a huge case against the L-1 wagon and jumped onto it.

2) Possessed Pastors in a Paranoid Parish

: In this game too, I was playing under my alt rapidcanyon, I was town and Tierce was scum. Her case against me mirrored her case against Piggy in Black Flag Nightless. #178It mostly talked about having "exagerrated reactions" #263 does more of the same. It is mostly a play on words arguing about whether the word "imperative" means the same as "urgent" and other hollow reads.

Notes:

1) Interesting to note, Tierce put Saulres at L-1 in Mafia in Triplicate so bandwagoning by itself is non-alignment indicative to her. The methodolgy of the bandwagon is what matters. In Mafia in Triplicate, she had expressed suspicion of Saulres before. She asked why he was going after a serial flaker. That natural progression of suspicion culminating in an L-1 vote separates her vote on other L-1 wagons like Piggy in Black Flag Nightless where her case lacked any depth to it and merely pointed out the dumb things that Piggy did in an attempt to paint her as scum.

2)

Tierce's influence over town

: When town, Tierce leads the game. She questions players, finds out their motivations, keeps up with the game and isn't self-conscious enough to make long, elaborate "cases." When she sees someone suspicious, she votes them. She asks them questions, tries to find out for herself whether the player is scum or town. This is apparent in both the above town games. As scum, she has relatively little influence over the outcome of the day. As seen in Possessed Pastors, in her later posts, she lurks a lot, makes giant catchup posts and hollow cases. The primary difference in her cases is that as scum, she tries to pin enough inconsistencies on a player in order to achieve a goal - lynching that player. As town, she never stops digging into the "why." She always wants to know why someone is doing what they did and why that could come from a scum motivation.

3)

Tierce's activity level

: Tierce lurks as scum. This is a pattern that can be seen over multiple games. Her activity level in games as town is always less that the activity level in games as scum.

To prove this, I calculated her activity level in her last 9 town games and last 9 scum games. I calculated it is a percentage of the total posts in the game until the point of Tierce's death in the game. I also calculated an "expected" percentage which each player in the game would have if they all posted equally. I then divided her actual percentage with her expected percentage to get the ratio of her activity level. As you can see from the graph, Tierce lurks as scum. She is lurking in this game which points to more evidence that she is scum.

SCUM

Game	Tierce's posts	Total posts till Tierce's death	Tierce's posts/Total posts Fraction	Percentage	Number of slots	Expected percentage	Actual/Expected
Black Flag	38	618	0.06	6.15	10	10	0.61
Science	40	277	0.14	14	7	14.29	0.98
Possessed Pastors	77	1104	0.07	7	13	7.69	0.91
Abarat	31	1091	0.03	3	23	4.35	0.69
Doctor Who	57	559	0.1	10	13	7.69	1.3
Exp. Role	105	1875	0.06	6	23	4.35	1.38
Paranoia	359	3810	0.09	9	20	5	1.8
Newbie 1209	110	677	0.16	16	9	11.11	1.44
Pick your Power	45	842	0.05	5	14	7.14	0.7

TOWN

[/row]

Game	Tierce's posts	Total posts till Tierce's death	Tierce's posts/Total posts Fraction	Percentage	Number of slots	Expected percentage	Actual/Expected
Mafia in Trip.	95	450	0.21	21	9	11.11	1.89
Dresden Files	103	1499	0.07	7	18	5.56	1.26
Micro 51	112	366	0.31	31	5	20	1.55
Reserse Mafia	76	673	0.11	11	13	7.69	1.43
Newbie 1289	75	459	0.16	16	9	11.11	0.02
Micro 12	58	559	0.1	10	9	11.11	0.9
Arkham Horror	61	322	0.19	19	13	7.69	2.47
MLP: FIR	82	902	0.09	9	15	6.67	0.6
Catch-22	277	2376	0.12	12	22	4.55	2.64

Plot of Scum vs Town Games

:

Current game

:

1) Aeris Vote: Based on my Aeris vote, if it was bad, I'd reasonably expect Tierce as town to attack me instantly for it, and refute my explanation and keep probing as to whether it had scum motivation. Instead, she just made a passing comment and used it as another point in her favor. It seems more like a race to count off how many inconsistencies she can nail as opposed to a puzzle-solving mode of trying to understand motivations which she often takes as scum.

2) Me saying Parama is scum:

When I say "

I am certain Parama is scum

,"

Tierce responds with: "

More posturing. Let's make sure that Parama lynch goes through

!"

Based on Tierce's town games, I would overwhelmingly expect Tierce as town to ask "why is Parama scum?" and when I give my answer, probe into the motivation for that, refute it, argue with it, etc. Instead she asks no questions to figure out my affiliation but rather chalked it up as a point in her favor.

3) Me attacking a lurker. I was town in Micro 51 and attacked a lurker. As I mentioned, Tierce's post was this: #57. Notice how she tries to get into what I was thinking by explaining how I lurked in another game as town and how it not a scumtell. She further elaborates on how lurking may not be indicative of affiliation. Compare that to here. She quotes my post and says "

Look at how much he's blowing the Trevor case out of proportion

" - and leaves it at that. She collects it as a point in her favor rather than use it to promote discussion to figure out my motivations.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Tl;dr, lynch Tierce.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Parama is a "good" player? I never knew!

Anyways, I can see why you'd suspect Leafsnail based on him going after the guy who is pushing the lynch of a claimed IC. I would say it is opportunistic except for the fact that Leafsnail has been pushing the Parama lynch since forever. Now, he is just adding more ammunition. It is a not a new thing. Check Leafsnail's ISO.

Tierce lurking is a small part of my case. Her playstyle is the more important part. Consider lurking as supporting evidence.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Regarding Tierce's response:

My intial Tierce-townread

It ties into my line of thinking perfectly. As I mentioned, I had some misgivings about Tierce earlier but the overall nature of her play made me read her as town. For instance, she started questioning Leafsnail and asking about his motivations. So, that part reads town which is why I had a town read on her. I am not saying she is incapable of emulating her town meta as scum. She is hyper-aware of her meta and I find it perfectly normal that she would try to emulate it. She did a good job pretending to be town. Over a longer period however, it becomes more and more difficult to uphold your town meta. Tierce slipped when she saw the opportunity to wagon onto me which allowed me to extrapolate her behavior and see that it fits more with her scum-meta.

I forgot to mention. In the Black Flag Nightless game, Empire posts a ton of meta on Tierce - more interesting stuff.

I don't feel the need to mention my townread on Tierce because it is no longer applicable. She fooled me.

"New Evidence"

Tierce claims she has "plenty of new evidence." This is precisely the problem I have. Why is she counting off how much evidence she has rather than figuring out my affiliation? In no other game as town does she do this. It is always an inquisitive probing into player's minds to determine their affiliation. A series of questions which get more and more detailed the further she probes. Compare that to her case on my vote on Aeris. Very superficial. She just said "bad vote" and counts it as evidence.

Comprehensiveness of meta

I don't think pointing out a single other game where someone was town/scum and corelating that to meta is accurate. "X did Y as scum, he is doing it now, so he scum" is heavily inaccurate.

In order to use meta properly, we need to have a large sample of games and shows

patterns

of behavior as opposed to isolated behavior. That is what I have done by comparing behavior in two town games and two scum games to show clear patterns across multiple games. As for activity level, I used a total of 18 games so I can confidently say "Tierce lurks as scum and I find her lurking scummy." It is not a guess or a random thought on my part but the product of factually proven analysis of data.

As with any data sample, there will be outliers and exceptions. Tierce saying "I lurked as town in that game" has little relevance or merit. There have been a couple of games where Tierce had a high post count as scum. Again, any data sample will have outliers unless it was done with dishonest intentions. The important thing to consider are overall trends in both behavior and activity level.

Also, I didn't say activity level was unimportant. It is supporting evidence to my my case on behavioral trends.

Disinterest in back-and-forths

Tierce says that I've already explained why I think Parama is scum. She doesn't want to discuss it. Again, compare with Micro 51 where she continues questioning until she gets to the absolute bottom of the situation.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Konowa, why is Tierce town?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Innocent child is someone modconfirmed as innocent.

I reckon this is sarcasm. If it is, way to be useless, you fuckwit. If it isn't, way to be useless, you fuckwit.

Anyone with a better explanation?

Majiffy: quick. Sum up your QT reads for me, both yours and Thor's. Five minutes, go.

Both of us: Leaf town, Parama scum, You scum
Thor: Ace PL, F-16 "play leaves me unhappy", Aeris town. Parama moving "more to WTF than scum"
I'm seeing F-16 as probably town, Trevor is unsettling but not very noteworthy, and Ace/Konowa are both complete non-issues in the game so far.

Cool. We are on the same page. Let's lynch Tierce then.

Dunno why Thor isn't happy with me. To be fair, I have been busy until today.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Lol, I like how Tierce is playing to her town-meta after I make a case on her.

Why did you not ask for MY reasoning for my votes Tierce? I don't feel the love there.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Some of TUG's posting was concerning to me but I looked back and their reads have me convinced that they are likely town. For example, Majiffy saying that Thor wasn't happy with my play. I don't know where or how scum would pretend to come to that conclusion.

Tierce's reaction to me claiming isn't a town reaction. When someone that scum is trying to mislynch turns out to be a power role, scum usually get frustrated. This is evident by Tierce's and Vi's reaction in Black Flag Nightless when their mislynch target was confirmed due to the way he replaced out. If Tierce was town, she'd be happy that her biggest scumread (me) claimed IC so she doesn't have to worry about me. Instead, she comes off as angry, frustrated, and in a bad mood, like scum who just got screwed out of a mislynch.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ StefanB, I am assuming you still see TUG as scum?

I don't like TUG's recent responses to Tierce and I want to see what Thor has to say. Tierce is looking townish based on her last few posts and TUG looking scummier. I am not sure I am entirely convinced though. I want to see Thor's input.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

On a reread, I don't find Tierce townish. Her case on me fits her scum-meta very well. Her refusal to believe that I am confirmed town is garbage as well. The push on Majiffy, I don't entirely see it impossible for her to do as scum especially right after I spoonfed her town-meta to her.

Tierce is still our best shot at a scum-lynch.

@ Majiffy/Thor, if your town, stop insulting Tierce so much - it is not her fault she drew scum.

Also, why the Trevor vote? Explain your thought process as to why you think he is scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, the appeal to Aeris was scummy as well, i.e. saying that Aeris was town if I flip scum.

Majiffy, you might want to read this comment from Tierce after she won a scum game. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p3998241

Especially look at the part where she addresses Midnight Sorrow.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I want to know why TUG voted Trevor too, but I don't get Leafsnail's point about the contradiction.

@ Leaf, what contradiction are you referring to?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, TUG, what is the more complicated version of your reads? You never gave those.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

One of the most self-aware meta readers currently active. I don't need your poorly done meta cases for that. You want a good meta case? That was Empire's on me in Open 463, and I didn't jump up and played to my Town meta then, so

why do you think I'd do that now if I was scum

? Your ripped-off shoehorned stuff and weak attempts at showing your regular Town paranoia aren't 'spoonfeeding', they are bullshit blabbering that has no actual connection with how I'm playing. You made a meta case with a predetermined view on my alignment and are twisting everything accordingly, up to and including ignoring the evidence I've given that your case is bullshit.

For WIFOM. Also, the skill of the town here is nowhere near that in Open 463 so you think you can worm your way out of it.

Your "evidence" basically consists of pointing out outliers instead of general trends.

No, dear. You are not going to mislynch me.

Of course not. Scum lynches aren't

mis

-lynches.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Tierce says it in #379. Basically

#353 - "You didn't ask for detailed analysis, so I didn't give it."
#361 - "I was actually going to give my detailed analysis, but I decided not to because I don't like your play."
#374 - "Much like you I'm not giving out my detailed analysis due to tactical considerations."

None of these answers would've been so bad on their own, but giving out all of them at once suggests he's wildly searching for a way to defend himself rather than answering honestly.

It suggests he is being unhelpful which isn't necessarily a scumtell. Majiffy in Open 448 was very unhelpful to town too but that doesn't necessarily mean that he is scum. I'd be far more comfortable lynching Tierce than TUG who still has some hope if Thor can redeem the slot.

As for the "contradiction," he just seems angry at Tierce and refuses to co-operate by giving his reads. I don't see it as a slam-dunk scumtell.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

He could simply have changed his mind about whether or not he wants to give detailed analysis.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Agree about the retro-active justification.

What is the second contradiction?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

But they can all be true and they can all be different reasons for why he isn't giving detailed analysis.

Anyways, that's about the extent I am willing to defend TUG. A lot of stuff he is doing isn't adding up to me either and if I didn't have a strong scumread on Tierce, I'd probably have voted them by now. I guess it is up to them if they are going to start being helpful from now.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Justifying everything as WIFOM is ridiculous. That's not valid, period. Either explain why it is WIFOM or get out. And you know why it's not WIFOM? Let me walk you through the steps:

You're saying I didn't even try to pretend I wasn't scum in Open 463, but the fact that I'm

playing to my Town meta here

is WIFOM. That is absurd, and you are completely ignoring a perfect meta example that fits this game, including posts for HOURS on a late night schedule that I would never pull as scum. You're ignoring this because it's convenient to you--let's forget Tierce's play in Micro 51, now that the meta is matching and your analysis is proven to be bunk.

As I mentioned, the skill of the town matters. Open 463 had Empire, Tammy, Regfan, and Faraday as town. You were never going to get away with it just pretending to be town. It was pretty much game over for you. Here, you are better than most of the players (besides Thor who is gone). The game contains players like Parama. You fully expect to worm your way out by pushing a mislynch and then killing me while the others are convinced that you are town.

You're saying I gave up on Open 463, but that I would go on a post spree for

twenty five posts in twelve hours

as scum

FOR WIFOM?

Are you scum, or are you out of your mind? We had a Town game together where I did much the same and it was BLEEDING Town motivation because I'm the laziest scum alive, but you conveniently choose to handwave the fact that I'm doing it here as WIFOM?

Your posting spree came after I posted a pretty graph showing how you lurk as scum. It was a response to an accusation, not a natural action from you.

Yep totally an outlier. It is a known fact that I take a while to get rolling, and therefore the "Tierce was lurking = scum omg" stuff is bullshit. This puts the lie to your accusations of outliers. I don't do posting sprees like in this game and in this one as scum--not because it's a truth tell, but because I am simply incapable of going on that kind of thing for so long. I physically can't keep up the motivation for so long because I loathe being scum.

Again, what is to stop you from doing it as scum just to say that you wouldn't do it as scum so you can make everyone think you are town?

You're scum. You're not "confirmed Town", you're fakeclaiming scum. First we'll get your UpstandingBuddies, and then we'll lynch you because the real IC can afford to claim after the first scum lynch and we won't need Rarefaction. That's why you are desperately trying to swerve the lynch from TUG onto me, because YOU won't survive Rarefaction and need your scumbuddy hydra to do it for you.

If I was scum, the real IC would have cc'd me to get me lynched. There is no motivation to not do it. There is no motivation for scum to claim IC since that means that as soon as the other scum is lynched, it is game over. It effectively turns the game into a partial white flag in the sense of 5P Vengefuls with the fake-IC being the goon and the the other player being the GF. It is a bad scum strategy and disadvantageous to them because the moment the other player is lynched, the real IC cc's the last scum.

At the time I claimed, there were plenty of people convinced I am town, and there would be no reason to fake-claim as soon as the L-1 vote was placed without attempting to convince people to unvote. But as town, I know my role is valuable enough to not risk derp-hammers or accidental hammers so claimed immediately. The fact that you don't see it as really obvious is what makes you scummy.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Tell me, Falcon: who is

my

scumbuddy?

It isn't Aeris. It probably isn't Leafsnail either. It could be TUG and you could be bussing like in the Possesed Pastors game. It is unlikely that is Trevor. It could perhaps be Parama but I am not sure. It could be StefanB or Konowa.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I reckon we'll be seeing your flip before ours.

You are kidding right? How exactly are you going to see her flip before yours when you are at L-1 and you haven't even voted her?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Your point? That's just like, her opinion, man.

If you are town, you are getting unnecessarily angry and allowing Tierce to mislynch you more easily.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't think anger is a scumtell. Anger just makes it easier for scum to mislynch you.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Aeris, what is your original account (if you don't mind revealing)? Also, have you played (or interacted) with me before?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why are you sheeping other people? That doesn't really fit the flow chart now does it?

This is true as well. Majiffy's meta-behavior in Open 448 doesn't match up with his behavior here.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Stop. Trolling. Do you understand how this game is played?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yes, we have briefly played in the same game before - actually both as you now and as your earlier main account.

Oh, I get it now. Say no more. Well, this game has Aeris so we can't possibly lose as long as she is town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

There are less than 2 days left. All the people refusing to hammer Thor/Majiffy should consolidate their votes on someone else. Any wagon that Tierce isn't leading is fine by me (worst case scenario).

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why isn't this guy ^^ sitebanned? I mean it is fairly obvious he only joins mafia games to troll around.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You have over 100 games? How are you this bad? It must be a human miracle. When people play more games, I generally expect them to get better, not degenerate into a troll.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Hey Parama, whether you buy my case on Tierce or not, you can't honestly believe I'd crunch all those numbers as scum. I have been posting analysis, discussing reads with other players, and helping town far more than you have. Your case on me is basically a misrep. I never said that troll=scum and serious=town. Even if you don't believe me, you are in luck because I drew the only confirmable role in the game which saves you the trouble of having to read me. I am also not voting someone you think is town. So, seriously, if you are town, start posting some analysis, reads and try and agree on a lynch. There is no town strategy under which lynching someone whose role is confirmable at LYLO is a good one.

Pedit: why Trevor?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Do you honestly expect a Trevor lynch to go through? Aeris is convinced Trevor is town, and Trevor isn't going to vote for himself. That is about all the people who aren't on the TUG wagon (besides me). Even if you convinced me, the most you can get is three votes.

We need to secure the best possible lynch out of all possible lynches. Trevor isn't a possible lynch.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

UNVOTE: Tierce
VOTE: Konowa

I can get on this wagon and I can see him potentially being Tierce's partner.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

It must be so frustrating to see you favorite mislynch target draw the IC role. Poor Tierce.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

How is Konowa's any better?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Konowa has 25 posts:

ISO 0-3 are useless one-liners. ISO 4, he votes Aeris asking why Leaf is town. #5, he wanted to observe the hydra a bit more. The comments checking to see if you (Aeris) had a legit read seem townish although not necessarily a town"tell" as in scum could do it too. 6,7 fluff. #8, he posts a one-liner after being gone for so long. I'd think he would have more substantive analysis. 9,10 blatant prod-dodges. Votes me based on my initial response to Tierce (okay vote I guess considering Aeris also found my first response scummy). Unvotes after I claim IC. Remaining posts till 20 contain no analysis. He says Tierce's behavior is alignment-null before I post meta-case, yet after I do showing it isn't, he makes no comment about it all neither agreeing nor disagreeing. Votes TUG for no reason in 15. Attacks TUG later in 21. Says he is not sold on Tierce being town (potential distancing).

Overall, I think he is scum.

Pedit: I don't know. I don't want to lynch the player Tierce is pushing on plus the fact that some of the stuff against him is really weak. I honestly don't get why Leafsnail thinks the "contradiction" is a cut and dry scumtell. TUG could simply have changed him mind. I think we should look at the big picture as opposed to two contradictory statements and say "scum" because of them. Town can easily contradict themselves multiple times, change their minds on their reads, etc.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

If they were scum with me, why would they be so apathetic to their impending lynch? You don't seem to have thought this through.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Leaf, I don't think Parama and TUG are scum together. Aeris had expressed intent to hammer and had Parama been buddies with TUG, he would have beaten Aeris to the hammer. If Parama is scum and TUG is town, it makes sense to sit back and let Aeris take potential heat for hammering. If Parama is town, he could genuinely have believed that TUG was town (regardless of TUG's affiliation).

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I find it odd that Thor posted elsewhere but hasn't posted here or changed his vote to his counterwagon - but then I'd expect him to do that as either alignment so no idea what to make of it.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I liked this game. It was fun to watch. Leafsnail played really well and totally convinced me that he was town. I was thinking it was Konowa. And Aeris was easily the best town player in the game. And sorry Tierce I think we both read each other wrong this game. If we were able to work together like in the first rarefaction game, I felt sure town would have won this too. Also, CFJ, I was quite impressed with your play in the second day phase. I didn't get a chance to interact with you but the persuasive way in which you led the town was great.

Thanks for modding Vi. Another fun game which had me at the edge of my seat. The funniest part to me was dying and realizing that Regfan and Empire had posted a ton of analysis in the dead QT. Would have been fun to see them in the game.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Parama played really well later on. It was like he was a new person. I have no idea why you chose to annoy the crap out of me on day 1 instead of playing to your best. You are obviously a good and competent player.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

also I take no responsibility for this loss
from the end of D1 to endgame I didn't vote or legitimately push anyone but scum
everyday I'm shufflin'

LOL

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You can't compartmentalize your play and said you did one thing right while ignoring that you were literally a burden to the town Day1.