Mini #381-Werewolf: Cancelled

[Jack]

vote:Lowell

Seems poor reasoning to me as well. If two watchmen claim there's a 50% chance one of them will be killed that night (only one doc).

Also, he voted me :p

[Jack]

The werewolves have 1/7 chance of getting the doc while the watchman would have a 1/9 chance

of having a

50%

chance

of identifying the killer.

If the watchman doesn't claim the werewolves have a 1/8 chance of killing doc and a 1/8 chance of killing watchman, and the watchman has the same chance as before, correct?

unvote:Lowell

It does seem like a good idea for the watchman to claim. Claiming increases the chance of the werewolves getting the doc by removing the chance of of them killing the watchman. It also increases the towns chances of lynching a werewolf this round.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Jack]

Hmm here's the way I see it though. Werewolves choose from 8 players. They have a 1/4 chance of killing a player with a power role. If watchman claims, they have a 1/7 chance. Isn't that fairly significant?

As for the doctor being so much better, it says "50% chance of identifying the

killer(s)

. ID'ing both the werewolves would be pretty sweet.

[Jack]

Well, Elias doesn't give a reason, he just states his opinion repeatedly. Coolbot states why he disagrees, although I don't see why a small chance at preventing a kill is better than a smaller chance at ID'ing a killer.

[Jack]

Wouldn't the doc have to prevent 2 kills to make the game longer?

We have 11 now. So the progression with no prevention would be 11-9-7-5 (lynch or lose). With one kill prevention it would be something like 11-9-8-6 (lynch or lose). Not terribly advantageous.

[Jack]

Vote:StallingChamp

Whatever man, that last sentence doesn't even make sense. Are you going to dick around like last game?

[Jack]

Dude, how can you call it an obvious false when last game you posted the mod's pm identifying the mafia?

[Jack]

What game did all this happen in?

Mini 373: doomsville.

All water under the bridge really, but I was reminded of it right away when he claimed mafia.

[Jack]

Unvote: trabony

. Curious how that read through is taking forever, though.

Vote: StallingChamp

. I always vote people who say that they're scum. Always. I can't count the number of times scum have done it, and it has become a golden rule for me to put my vote on whomever does it. Congradulations, there's your conversation starter.

You have any past games to back that up? I'm guessing yes but I'd like to be sure you're not just making that up as an excuse to put the 4th vote on.

[Jack]

Hmm no I agree with Green Crayons

unvote

Stalling is very suspicious but I see no reason to end the day this early. In fact Lowell's 5th vote with no reason attached makes me more suspicious. Isn't 4 enough to push for a claim?

[Jack]

Yes and then he claimed that was a false claim...lowell was saying time to claim a "real" claim.

[Jack]

Where did I say voting SC was proof of innocence. All I said was that a vote was not scummy by itself. And there is no point to delaying the lynch, since scum will be laying low by now, waiting for the inevitable to happen. SC's stunt basically ended any usefulness to be had from this day.

bah, I don't see that at all. You seem in an awful hurry to get this day over.

Why isn't there any usefulness to be had?

[Jack]

lol if that was true it would be the perfect cover wouldn't it?

@Lowell--if they were going to claim I think they'd have done it by now.

[Jack]

Vote:perfect62834

No posts?? This person is playing right?

[Jack]

Err perhaps he voted him because he thinks that "the idea of a confirmed innocent power role" scares coolbot? That seems pretty obvious.

I need to re-read.

[Jack]

I thought almost that exact same phrase for why he voted him before I read that post...that is probably why he voted him.

Where were you btw?

[Jack]

I said it wasn't OMGUS, I can't imagine why you thought it was. I'm sure Lowell can explain his reasoning far better than I can, I was just pointing that out.

[Jack]

I don't think scum would be particularly more scared of a confirmed power role than a secret one- they both have an equal chance of finding the scum, right? It would simply narrow down the possibilities for the doc.
And another thing- how CAN we confirm the watchman? He's the only investigative role, so he can't be confirmed that way, and we have no other power roles than could reveal something like that. Even if thw watchman does come out, he'd be counterclaimed by scum, likely resulting in the deaths of both, or at least a good deal of confusion.

Well that would be pretty awesome wouldn't it? Lynching a scum is easily worth lynching a watchman, and we'd only have a 50 percent chance of lynching watchman anyway.

So yeah, watchman can be confirmed by claiming because no werewolf worth his silver would counterclaim.

[Jack]

just so everyone knows, I didnt say say the top quote. Just clearing that up. Im not sure who actually did.

'twas Echo.

[Jack]

huh.

vote:Coolbot

[Jack]

I think he's a werewolf. Along with either you or Conflux.

[Jack]

Vote: Lowell

Unvote, Vote: Lowell

Unvote, Vote: Lowell

What the christ?

Vote:Echo419

[/b]

[Jack]

I find Conflux suspicious because of his hammer vote and then "unvote" round one, and general lurking.

Echo and Coolbot have persistantly persued Lowell and voted him over the watchman claim thing, even though I've said throughout I agree with Lowell on this...I don't see why they aren't voting me. Personally I find Lowell to very townie. They were also all over the StallingChamp lynch (granted several other people were as well) and he turned out to be town.

Echo has also voted Lowell 3 times in a row which is odd.

[Jack]

Still, why were you voting Lowell based just off the watchmen thing? That doesn't make sense to me. It just looks like you think you can get him lynched from that.

[Jack]

Why are you voting me Coolbot?

[Jack]

Not a fan of randomizing...would be weird to have to start from scratch with someone on page nine.

I guess I just want to know if I was right or not.

[Jack]

So wait. Lowell proposed a plan. You voted him because of it. He was innocent.

I agreed with Lowells plan. You vote me?

That makes no sense. I also find it suspect that you seem eager to have Lowell modkilled.

[Jack]

Sounds good to me.

[Jack]

Who were the werewolves?

[Jack]

haha oops. No wonder you were against Lowell's plan lol

[Jack]

Sweet, we would've killed 2 watchmen in 2 nightkills.

Unless I'd decided to claim...see, it was a good plan!