Mini 1412: 0 Percent Flavor Mafia Finis

[The Central Scrutinizer]

/confirm

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I apologize for the delay; I had a lot of chores to take care of today.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I kind of like the aceofspades wagon as long as he's inactive. So for now, VOTE: theaceofspades

[The Central Scrutinizer]

There's everything to like about lynching people who don't contribute. Active town is good town, inactive town is bad town.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I just like RVS wagons.

Good scumhunting though giving me the answer to your question.

I kind of like the aceofspades wagon as long as he's inactive. So for now, VOTE: theaceofspades

This vote seems to be taking an opportunity in the fact that an inactive has an RVS wagon going to vote him for a non-RVS reason. This post alone, however, doesn't make me suspicious. This does:

There's everything to like about lynching people who don't contribute. Active town is good town, inactive town is bad town.

It looks like you have a couple of things going here:

a) You know he's going to flip town by the fact you say "inactive town" and nothing about "inactive scum".

b) You mention nothing about lynching scum, only lynching inactive town over active town.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: The Central Scrutinizer

I haven't played a game on this site in a while, but several years ago it was a considered valid Day 1 strategy to lynch inactive players, because either you lynch scum or you get rid of a player that is doing nothing to help find scum.

You could easily replace "town" in those phrases with "thread" or "discussion." It has nothing whatsoever to do with town/scum in my mind. It is in the best interests of the town as a faction for all players to post actively, scum or town, because that is the primary way of generating information that results in good lynches.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I think that Yates's accusation of Monkeyman in post #59 is nonsense. Monkeyman never made a single positive claim about whether scum can talk during QT, daytalk, night, whatever. He made no positive statement at all, but asked a question. He thought that day had started because there were posts with content, in which context havingfitz's comment about extending scum private chat time would have made no sense. So Yates's accusation was based on either a misread or malice.

In my limited experience scum is more likely to jump on wagons than to start them, so my question is, who jumped on this CLEARLY erroneous bandwagon? How did people react?

In post #65, -L- was skeptical.
In post #67 Matt-Shadowlord seemed confused but thought it might be a plausible line of inquiry.
In post #68, havingfitz voted for Monkeyman, claiming that Yates "beat him to it"
In post #71 Alduskkel voted for Monkeyman with no explanation
In post #74 Yates posts "evidence" that shows that Monkeyman definitely knows that scum can talk N0. But the fact remains that Monkeyman never claimed that such a thing was impossible.
In post #75 Matt-Shadowlord buys it and votes Monkeyman
In post #80, Human Destroyer jumps on the wagon with the comment "this is a good wagon"

On the next page, Yates seems to be suffering from extreme tunnelvision. I agree with -L-'s comment in #135 and its implication that this is more likely to be a townie trait than a scum trait.

In post #132, havingfitz unvotes Monkeyman without reason given.
In #140 TheActingMethod "doesn't get" the bandwagon

----

The one thing I'm really uncomfortable with here is that my number one suspect after first re-read was havingfitz, and I don't think scum would jump off the wagon at that point (unless Monkeyman were actually scum).

So I have two options: Monkey/Fitz scumteam, or Option 2. Option 2 is that Monkey is town and Alduskkel, Matt, or HD (but not all) are scum opportunistically hopping on wagons.

Monkey just doesn't read scum to me, especially after reading him in isolation in the game Yates posted. So I'm going to go with option 2. Of those three I am most comfortable with a HD vote. UNVOTE: theaceofspades VOTE: Human Destroyer

Other thoughts: Yates and L are probably town.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Actually Lynch all Lurkers is considered a policy lynch

Probably the most common one I've seen other than Lynch all Liars

@TCS: How do you not think MonkeyMan is scum? Just look at the whole part where he unvotes me and waits about 5 posts before voting for a lurker, which he had stated intent to vote earlier. Not only that, he voted someone who had

just recently contributed

. Wouldn't his vote be better suited for someone that's, y'know, actually not contributing if that's his angle?

Monkey says a couple of things I don't like, but my first impression upon reading the game Yates posted was that he didn't come off as playing like he did in that game. I don't see him as totally innocent, though. However, I do see him as the target of the day's first major bandwagon and argument, and because I don't see that the argument Yates is making against him has any merit whatsoever, I am inclined to believe that at least one of the people who jumped on his wagon is opportunistic scum.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I agree in part and dissent in part with Slandaar's last analysis. I don't think that scum is necessarily more self-conscious about looking bad. As a townie, I'm just as concerned about throwing off false scum-tells as not. I'd rather not be voted ever, at all, in any game. Therefore I'm not prepared to look at HD's concern for his appearance in #50 as a scum tell.

On the other hand, I share his disagreement with HD's conclusion that should MM flip scum, Slandaar falls under heavy suspicion. Based on Slandaar's posting, I don't think there's a good chance that if MM flips scum that Slandaar is also scum. Scum isn't often going to defend scum on day 1 in the face of a growing wagon. Rather, scum would buddy up with a townie under fire, making Slandaar a weak scum possibility in a universe where MM flips town. It would be a good play for potential Slandaar-scum, building him an ally if Monkey is not lynched and making him look better when Monkey flips town.

With that in mind I re-read Slandaar in isolation. Barring his last post I'm getting strong scum vibes from him. He voted HD during RVS and is sitting on the wagon. He hasn't done any real scumhunting and has posted mostly non-content. He even buddied up to monkey a little. He could be somewhat lazy town, but I see his behavior as scummy. Further, I would posit that if he flips scum, there is a high probability that he has been locked onto a scumpartner all along in order to play the long game.

Therefore, I will go with what I see as the superior information play. UNVOTE: Human Destroyer VOTE: Slandaar

[The Central Scrutinizer]

1. In post #90 you buddy up to Monkey by defending him.
2. You make a lot of definitive statements: "X is town"
3. You tunnel HD first and then make your case later
4. I disagree strongly with your read on Yates so I don't think that the HD/Yates distancing argument has much merit. Seems to me more like you're scum trying to sacrifice one of your comrades (a common play) and then maybe get a free Yates lynch tomorrow.

In many ways I like your case on HD, but you have overall seemed scummier and I think that lynching you before him gives us more information.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Last post was RE: Slandaar, obviously.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

That makes him a bad scumhunter; it doesn't make him scum.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Something I forgot to emphasize in my posts RE:Slandaar. I

would

like to hear Yates and HD's respective opinions of one another, and I don't think I'm the only one.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

@TCS, in 42why'd you vote theaceofspades as inactive and not mention Matt, who also hadn't posted?

Because where voting/lynching inactives is the policy I'm attempting to vote in accordance with, joining a wagon on an inactive player makes more sense to me than being the only vote on an inactive player.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

qwints, can you share with me why you think Slandaar is town? I'm not reading that.

Also, if Slandaar is town, what effect if any of your opinion on HD?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

UNVOTE: Slandaar

VOTE: -L-

[The Central Scrutinizer]

After reading past threads -L- has been in, I am forced to agree with Yates that she reads more like her scum meta than not.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I'd like to see qwints and alduskkel post more. Alduskkel is in a lot of games so it's possible he's just swamped. Which to me is a town read. If he was scum he'd be much more intent on this game. The lack of posting coupled with no scummy behavior to speak of gives me a town read. qwints has just not been posting. I actually forgot he was here to be honest.


All in all. Her'es my thoughts now as far as reads

Town
Monkey
Acting
Scrutinize
ace
L
alduskkel


Null and void where prohibited by law
angel
qwints
HD
acting method


Lean Scum
Slandaar. He's number one if Yates turns out to be town
matt

Scum
Yates

Honestly including yourself on your own list makes me think you're scum, mainly because when I was a new player I did precisely the same thing as scum.

This isn't enough but the Eye has gazed upon you, my friend, and it remembers.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Bonus: I would jump in a volcano if I dropped this case and Monkey turned out to be scum later because I hate it when someone wins through sheer incompetence.

Confirmation bias status: confirmed.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

P-Edit: That's less of confirmation bias and more of a preemptive "I told you so!" from what I can tell

I would say that Yates having that strong desire not to make "the wrong decision" by getting off the Monkey wagon indicates a high probability of confirmation bias in his reads.

I think that the Monkey-Yates counterwagons are a big ass waste of time. Yates is very probably town, so we should not lynch him. Further, lynching him gives us no information on anything. If he's scum, his death is good but it tells us little. If he's town, we lose a person who generates a lot of action. If we mislynch a couple of times and he's still around, we should look to Yates, but not yet. Monkey reads to me as possible scum, and I would lynch him on deadline. But I think he's a low information lynch.

We need a plausible third option that people can get behind, an option that gives us more information. That person will likely be someone who has contributed very little to scumhunting and seems content to allow us to lynch Monkey or Yates without either contributing to it, looking into other options, or seriously evaluating the posts of any others.

ISO re-read summaries:

-L-

: A little fluffy. Playing to "scum meta," based on Yates link. Moderate scum possibility.

Alduskkel

: Not a lot of posting... only on Monkey wagon. Wants to diffuse Monkeyman/Yates. Null.

ArcAngel9

: Not a lot of contribution, but shares her opinions on the scumminess/townieness of several people. Null.

havingfitz

: Monkeywagon to Yates wagon, not because he thinks Yates is scum, but basically because Yates annoys him. Longest post was all reactions to people, no hunting at all. Moderate scum possibility.

Human Destroyer

: Overall not much good analysis. Sticks to Monkey for a while but starts to look at others. Small scum possibility.

Matt-Shadowlord

: Agrees with Alduskkel on diffusing Monkey/Yates wagon. Says some slightly scummy stuff but actively hunting. Null.

Monkeyman576

: Not a lot of content. Spends most of game struggling with Yates. Small scum possibility.

Tochica/Qwints

: Seemed townie as Tochica. Not a lot of content from qwints yet but he says things that aren't dumb. Probably town.

Slandaar

: Reads seem to be polar opposites of mine. Makes some good points, actually seems to hunt. Probably some level of confirmation bias, but says scum possibility because of reads that don't seem to make sense.

The Acting Method

: Little to go on... not much hunting, Yates wagon. Small scum possibility.

theaceofspades

: On Yates wagon. Some hunting. Much of reads based on assumption Yates is mafia. Probably town.

Yates

: Town, or great scum. Tunneling Monkey. Terrible information lynch.

In summary, My vote will remain on -L- for the time being, because I think she's a decent information lynch and has a decent scum possibility, but I am also willing to

FoS: havingfitz

as a strong scum possibility and would get on his wagon.

Top three preferred wagons in order:
-L-
Fitz
HD

Ned more participation from:
The Acting Method
Alduskkel
ArcAngel9

Need to stop wagoning:
MonkeyMan
Yates

[The Central Scrutinizer]

P-Edit TCS makes some good points here. He might have just saved your ass Yates. But I'd like him to comment on the fact that he says it would be bad to lynch yates even if he is scum becasue it would tell us nothing. Am I missing something? Lynching scum is always a good thing, yes?

why should monkey care where the meta came from? He's not attacking you.

This makes me very much more extra sure you are scum. TCS. Please respond to my above question.

Initially, I don't think that Yates is scum. I think if he is scum he's making a pretty interesting play If he's still around in a couple of days I may have to reassess... he seems like a good player and thus maybe capable of such a gambit. However, on D1 I'm not willing to lynch him against my read on the basis that he's running a gambit.

On to your question. In the game of mafia lynching serves a twofold purpose -- one is to get rid of scum, and the other is to get information for subsequent lynches. Therefore, my ideal lynch candidate is a person that both has a high probability of being scum and gives me information about who his compatriots might be. If we had absolutely confirmed scum or a candidate that is vastly superior to all others, I would vote to lynch them even if they provided zero information that would help us in subsequent days. But we don't have that here. I don't see anyone who I would rate as being HIGHLY probable scum, only people that I think have a pretty good chance. And so I would support lynching one of them that would give us more information about the alignment of other players. Yates just doesn't do that. Despite posting a ton, he's basically been on Monkey the entire game and while he has posted regarding some other wagons, he hasn't done much and hasn't provided much real analysis. Even if he flips scum, which I think is low possibility, his flip tells us nothing. Was he bussing Monkey? Who did he speak to and who did he ignore? We might be able to puzzle some of these out from the walls that he's posted, but I would rather just lynch someone else because, as I said initially, I just don't buy him as scum.

I almost talked myself into a Monkey lynch earlier today simply because it would force Yates to shift his gaze to other targets, but that just wasn't a good enough reason for me to lynch Monkey unless we were having real trouble reaching a majority on a better lynch.

P-edit: I did read your town play in another game -L-, and you seemed much more into hunting and less into reacting to others. That was my impression.

P-edit 2: Wheaton's Law, Yates.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

-L-,

I have to admit I love detailed analysis and yours makes me happy. But I have to point out a few scummy things you are doing right now:

1) You didn't really hunt your best until I posed you as a serious alternative to the major wagons of the game day. Then you walled.
2) With this large post you seem to have consciously deviated from the behavior you had been displaying thus far. Perhaps this is in response to Yates and I observing that you seemed to be conforming to your scum meta as suggested by previous games.
3) You are omgusing without omgusing. You are directing suspicion towards me without voting for me. If I'm so far up your scum meter, why not vote for me? Are you that self-conscious of being accused of omgus voting? Are you waiting for other people to vote first so that you can seem less responsible should I somehow end up being lynched?

So, Central Scrutinizer - a few questions.

1. What information would have Slandaar's lynch given the town? What thoughts were in your mind at the time?

With regards to information to be gained from a Slandaar lynch, I was looking primarily to Slandaar's buddying of Monkeyman, his multiple town reads, and his posts towards you and HD. I think that should Slandaar come up scum in such a situation, Monkey is basically confirmed town, fitz and ace are probably town, and we are forced to look at Ald/Yates/HD with greater scrutiny.

I must admit one of my reasons to see him lynched were selfish... I would get a sense of whether our reads are different because my attention is misplaced or because he is scum trying to throw out smoke bombs.

In the end - I suspect a TCS/Monkey team.

This doesn't incline me to change my vote, and indeed confirms that it shall remain. Pointing to your accuser and a popular target of the day's animosity looks scummy as all hell to me. You're trying to associate me with someone who has had a substantial wagon on them in an attempt to dirty me. I don't see what this is necessary if I'm so obviously scummy already.

As I have already said, I am not certain that Monkey is town. In fact he looks a little scummy. But I do not think that there is enough to go on and I believe that the Monkey/Yates brouhaha is being used by some of the actual scum in this game as an opportunity to skate by and post mostly reactionary material without having to fake scumhunting.

And you don't have to trust me, Yates, as being on your team.

It just means I trust YOU, and whatever you post.

Buddying much?

---

With regard to several of your observations about me switching votes: I don't like stagnation in the game, and I don't like not voting for someone at any given period of time. I re-read and re-evaluate every time I find that the game has jumped ahead of me by several pages. I think if you re-examine the timing of my posts you will find that to be the case.

And I apologize a lot. It is a(n arguable) failing of my character and not a tell either way. I was born to apologize. Sorry.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

If someone had completely different reads to me and they were lynched and flipped town, I would not assume my reads were misplaced, I might think about things a little, but it honestly wouldn't change much as they could have been the ones with misplaced reads (or both); being town doesn't mean being right (and I am confident in my reads so I definitely would go with what I think but...)

TCS however would think his reads are wrong because lynched persons were different.

Doesn't seem town to me.

Ok... tell me what's scummy about that.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

OK

I am lynched I am town. My reads are x/y/z are scum

so, then you will say 'my reads are misplaced! lets lynch x/y/z'

Clearly Fake.

No... I will have

more doubt

that I am correct about mine if you're not scum, because I honestly don't see how a townie that is attentively reading the game and trying to make decisions that are in the best interest of the town could possibly come to the conclusion that "fairly sure fitz is town" (post 281) or "Yates is guaranteed scum" (282)

Fairly sure Fitz is town also fwiw.

I will go on record as stating that I will be relying on everyone else for a Slandaar read because he always reads as scum to me even when Town.

This Guy is Scum Guaranteed.

Unless I'm missing something big. So if I'm wrong about you, maybe I'm wrong about other things. I won't automatically think you were right all along just because you were a scummy enough townie to get lynched. That's dumb, and it's not what I said.

You don't modify your opinions in light of new evidence?

---

I think that several of us are falling victim to this idea that if someone doesn't play town the same way as me, that's scummy behavior. That's bullshit. What we are looking for is people not helping and skating by, people being distracting, and people acting like they're hunting but following some other agenda. Not people who have different opinions or have different methods of reaching decisions than we. This is why I'm not voting for you right now, Slandaar.

Am I making any sense at all? Either way I'm probably done with this tangent.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

@TCS...what did you read that caused to go from Monkey not reading as scum to you and suspecting Slandaar in part for buddying Monkey (ergo Monkey is town) tooooooooooooo Monkey is possible scum and a "deadline lynch" (though his lynch would not garner much info....really?)? It feels like you want to have a certain amount of suspicions on record for Monkey man but you don't want to contribute to his lynch. It feels like you have been trying to work against Monkey's wagon while at the same time having keeping your options open to vote him later?

And still to TCS, a Yates lynch wouldn't garner a lot of info either? A Slandaar lynch would be more informative than an HD lynch. Also, a Monkey lynch wouldn't be very informative. You seem to hold the potential information from flips in very high regards in deciding who to suspect. Is it more imporatant to you to vote the person you suspect the most or the person who's flip you think (for whatever reason) will provide the most info? What info would an -L-or I lynch garner? So you think an -L- lynch provides more info than a Sandaar lynch?

1. Monkey hasn't been a particularly helpful poster, and while I don't really see a high likelihood of him being scum (more than null but not much more, as I indicated in post #535), I acknowledge that his lynch would be good for the town even given a smaller chance of being scum in my mind than others. It would eliminate a player who doesn't bring much to the table, who has been the center of a lot of attention today, and would free up Yates to tunnelvision someone else.

2. I don't think a Yates lynch would garner much useful info D1, as he has mostly tunneled Monkey. I also don't think he's scum.

Think of it as a sliding scale. I would not hesitate to lynch confirmed scum even if it gave no information. I would not hesitate to lynch confirmed town if for some wild-ass reason it would provide the town with a ton of good information. Most lynches fall somewhere in between, and so my goal when determining who I want to wagon is to find a person whose behavior is scummy and whose flip would tell us the most about the rest of the game. If someone is a little scummy but there is a benefit to lynching them either way, I may support their lynch (Monkey). If someone is more scummy, but there are somewhat fewer benefits to lynching them, I still support their lynch more because we have a greater chance of catching scum (-L-). If two people seem roughly equally scummy to me, I would rather lynch the one that gives us more info (-L- as opposed to Fitz).

This is generally how I think about the game as town. Perhaps I should emphasize it less on Day 1, when we don't have that much to go on anyway, but that's roughly my thought process.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

What information will be gained for the town if I am lynched?

Since I give more information than lynching havingfitz.

Also - what information would havingfitz' lynch garner for the town?

You actually have opinions about some things and have expressed them. Fitz hasn't done a ton of that.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Also - why am I the one asking all the questions?

Do you not have anything you wish to ask me, TCS?

Or is your case on me a farce, even to you?

You don't have to ask questions of people to scumhunt. You don't have to ask questions of people to make a case on them. Your style may be to try to pick at the edges of arguments with questions. My style is do do constant re-reads and evaluate how players react to different events, and when nothing is happening, try to generate new events, usually by voting.

Which leads me to wonder, why aren't you voting me? Is your case on me a farce, even to you?

Either you have the innocent belief that I'm scum and the desire to see me lynched, in which case you should be voting me, or you are just nervous scum, in which case you are sensitive to being seen as wagon-jumping and OMGUS voting. Your choice.

(See, I can employ the logical fallacy of false dichotomy, too.)

[The Central Scrutinizer]

What information will be gained for the town if I am lynched?

Since I give more information than lynching havingfitz.

Also - what information would havingfitz' lynch garner for the town?

You actually have opinions about some things and have expressed them. Fitz hasn't done a ton of that.

What are my opinions? I have shared very few. Please enlighten the town and show the opinions I have, and the information my lynch will yield.

Merely reiterating that my lynch will yield information is not town like or helpful.

You mention that you suspect fitz several times, but you never vote him. If you are scum he's an auto-lynch tomorrow.

You give a wishy-washy opinion of HD and mention him several times without building a case on him.

You are pretty ambivalent to the Yates/Monkey issue and are the first to point out that Yates's play is very likely indicative of town. You being scum makes a Yates gambit more likely.

There are three people right there who I suspect more if you flip scum. Yates is a bit attenuated, I'll give you that.

---

I thought of a question for you: How do you feel about townies who intentionally keep portions of their reads secret?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Also - why am I the one asking all the questions?

Do you not have anything you wish to ask me, TCS?

Or is your case on me a farce, even to you?

You don't have to ask questions of people to scumhunt. You don't have to ask questions of people to make a case on them. Your style may be to try to pick at the edges of arguments with questions. My style is do do constant re-reads and evaluate how players react to different events, and when nothing is happening, try to generate new events, usually by voting.

Which leads me to wonder, why aren't you voting me? Is your case on me a farce, even to you?

Either you have the innocent belief that I'm scum and the desire to see me lynched, in which case you should be voting me, or you are just nervous scum, in which case you are sensitive to being seen as wagon-jumping and OMGUS voting. Your choice.

(See, I can employ the logical fallacy of false dichotomy, too.)

Must I repeat - for the umpteenth time that what I presented was not a case, but my general feel of you? My take on your posts thus far? There is still enough reasonable doubt because these are merely my feelings about you. I do not make judgements on feelings alone.

Everything I posted was not a farce - they are truly my thoughts. Would you disagree with that?

I never claimed you were scum. I said you were scummy. So your conclusions about me being nervous scum are unfounded, if that is the basis of your point.

Too? When did I?

If you write a long post talking about how someone is acting scummy, you are making a case against them in the game of mafia. I think you are trying to cut too fine a distinction here.

"Also - why am I the one asking all the questions?

Do you not have anything you wish to ask me, TCS?

Or is your case on me a farce, even to you?"

Presents a false dichotomy -- either I have questions to ask you, or my case is a farce.

What information will be gained for the town if I am lynched?

Since I give more information than lynching havingfitz.

Also - what information would havingfitz' lynch garner for the town?

You actually have opinions about some things and have expressed them. Fitz hasn't done a ton of that.

What are my opinions? I have shared very few. Please enlighten the town and show the opinions I have, and the information my lynch will yield.

Merely reiterating that my lynch will yield information is not town like or helpful.

You mention that you suspect fitz several times, but you never vote him. If you are scum he's an auto-lynch tomorrow.

You give a wishy-washy opinion of HD and mention him several times without building a case on him.

You are pretty ambivalent to the Yates/Monkey issue and are the first to point out that Yates's play is very likely indicative of town. You being scum makes a Yates gambit more likely.

There are three people right there who I suspect more if you flip scum. Yates is a bit attenuated, I'll give you that.

---

I thought of a question for you: How do you feel about townies who intentionally keep portions of their reads secret?

And if I flip town, what will your conclusions be then? It must be recorded for posterity.

Townies who intentionally keep reads secret are experienced. By having the disadvantage of all-knowing scum, more information regarding the sometimes accurate reads allows the scum to dance all around the town player with the reads.

There is a huge disadvantage, though, in that the townie who does not reveal their reads suffers from the lack of groupthink. In keeping their reads secret, the shortchange other townies who may have other information due to their role from making valid conclusions.

In a person's lifetime, they must decide which type of gameplay they will play most.

I also forgot to mention that if you flip scum, qwints jumped off your wagon with little explanation as soon as I started voting for you.

If you flip town, I think it increases Monkeyman's chances of being scum. Other than that I can't say with certainty yet because not very many people seem to want you lynched.

Honestly I've only been on this wagon for a little while and I'm already bored of it. I want to sit back and hear what others think at this point.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I was with you until this:

I would not hesitate to lynch confirmed town if for some wild-ass reason it would provide the town with a ton of good information.

No bueno. You would likely get blacklisted for playing against your win condition - unless you are scum. Information lynches I get, lynching conf Town for information is a couple of steps too far.

Hence, "for some wild-ass reason." Like an unusual setup. I honestly can't think of any reason that would come up in a game like this, nor would I expect one to. I was defining the outer bounds of the model.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I was defining the outer bounds of the model.

I would cheat on my wife if I discovered she was secretly an alien and grew a penis where her vagina was and immediately after making this discovery Jessica Biel rang my doorbell standing in the rain wearing nothing but a sopping wet white t-shirt professing her undying love for me. But I wouldn't tell her that. See what I mean?

And in stating so you've essentially told us when you wouldn't cheat on your wife -- not in very many circumstances. Had you set the bar lower I would have understood something different.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Then you're going to love this, MonkeyMan.

UNVOTE: -L-

I feel like she did a good enough job defending herself that I shouldn't be voting for her right now.

Since I don't like to be not voting, ever, VOTE: havingfitz[/b].

[The Central Scrutinizer]

VOTE: havingfitz

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Since I don't like to be not voting, ever, VOTE: havingfitz.

And this ---> Really...the best you can do is because you don't like to not be voting? Anything else?

I've said several times now that you were on my scumlist. I set you second to -L- in the large, meaningful, and mildly controversial post several pages ago. Are you not reading?

This is a good wagon.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Yates, you single handedly swatted monkey's argument down by calling HIM useless. Ad hominem.

Second - defensive play IS alignment indicative. Scum play defensively, town - offensively. Simple.

VOTE: yates

Wait, so after making the statement that town plays offensively, you vote one of the most offensive players in the game?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

The closest I can see to a "case" made by Monkey is 440/442

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Yeah, so basically any time you tunnel is a case of confirmation bias. If the person ends up being scum you give yourself a pat on the back and call yourself a great scumhunter, if you're wrong you say they're derp and deserve it. This is a great excuse for scum to hunt town and cause a mislynch, and if you are town you are doing the town a disservice because you can't be right all the time, and you are not even considering your own inquiries. The questions you ask people are basically pointless and their only purpose is to further your own interests.

You make a decent point that tunneling to the extent that he has is bad for the town, but I don't see at all how this could be confused with a case on Yates. He's right that your posts are generally not very impactful. He may even be right that the town stands a better chance to win without you as town.

I agree with the point on the questions, but it's a null tell. An innocent with confirmation bias would exhibit identical behavior to a scum running such a gambit.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

TCS - do you really see Yates' play right here as

offensive

? He's basically drawing a line in the sand about his play here. That said, Yates play is either town or incredibly gutsy scum. Yates isn't making any friends not is he keeping his options open - ask yourself how a scum Yates hopes to survive a MM-town flip. That's really the basis for me seeing Yates as town here - he's painted himself into a corner with his tunneling on Monkey. I suppose it could be a gambit, where Yates hopes to be conf-town with a Monkey-scum flip, but that's a very risky move D1 since Yates then has to explain a conf-town not getting nk'd.

Monkey's play looks to me like his freaked-out town play I've seen him mislynched for before. I'm really worried that we've got a town-town fight between Yates and MM that would be all too easy for scum into turn into two quick mislynches. I'm willing to bet more than one scum is egging this along.

You basically agree with me on all points.

I simply don't see the margin in a scum doing what Yates has done today. If Monkey flips town, his credibility is shot and he gets investigated/vigkilled/lynched at

some point

before endgame. Monkey is not really reading any worse than slightly scummy to me, and honestly I think it's

far more plausible

that neither of them is scum and scum are skating by/egging this on.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I guess I forgot to add that if Monkey flips scum, Yates is still less than confirmed in my mind. Scum tunneling scum is something I have seen before and it doesn't look dissimilar to this.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

UNVOTE: havingfitz

VOTE: -L-

While I did like her contributions in response to my voting, she is in fact egging Yates/MM on and I don't get it. Do you honestly think Yates as scum is going to do this, -L-?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I like your argument, qwints, and I have nothing I can say to your analysis but that you are wrong. Just let me know when to claim.

If you're going to claim vanilla, don't bother.

If you're going to claim power role, don't hint at it, just do it when you think the time is right.

Hinting that you have a power role is scummy. Hinting that you have a power role and

it's on someone else to decide when it's okay for you to claim

strikes me as even scummier. You're not only implying that you have a power role but trying to make qwints feel like it's his responsibility for your claim, thus making him more likely to unvote you on the chance that your claim is valid.

I for one am not prepared to believe any claim you make at this point.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Why do you need someone to tell you when it is appropriate to claim? You've played this game before.

You have four votes on you, and there is nearly a week left in this day. Why are you claiming so early?

You accuse Yates of being over-defensive (which is scummy), and yet you are exhibiting that behavior tenfold. How am I to interpret that?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

EBWOP: (which is scummy,

according to you

)

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Norikaz - I stated what I posted was not a case.

A case is an analysis with a theory attached.

Mine was merely an analysis. No point, just thoughts. It was posted so that town could take a look at TCS. A vote was not necessary at that point.

@TCS - you could have said upfront that you would not believe anything I'd say. Then you wouldn't have had to write that paragraph.

I am claiming power role. Like it?

You're claiming a role? Seriously? alreadY?

Hmmm, yeah.

girlie if you claim now..... I'll claim too.

Straight up.

Please don't. Scum wants this.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Have I ever been inconsistent? Had any scum slips? Jumped a wagon?

Yates just posted examples of at least two of those...

[The Central Scrutinizer]

If L is a claimed power role it's only more of a reason we need to lynch Yates.

You believe her? Why?

Tunneling?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I don't believe her necessarily, but it's not worth the risk of lynching her and her being town. Yates is much more suspicious, has behaving more anti-town and is less of a risk to lynch.

Say he role claims. What's your opinion then?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

So why do you hold me in disbelief, TCS?

Qwints's post 880 does a better job explaining my reasons for re-voting you than I could.

A power role claim by you at this point doesn't smell right. It's too early. The way you claimed it was scummy. And in post 404 you say, "I do wish someone would suspect me. I'm bored." I don't see a power role saying something like that.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Arc/Penguin could be town. Their fate is not yet sealed.
My immediate guess about the force-replace was some form of intra-scumteam drama, given yesterday's friction between HD and Arc, but we'll see.
Arc did actually say a few townie sounding things.

TAOS remains a solid scum candidate:

• HD + TAOS team could very reasonably kill Slandaar both to protect HD and TAOS, as I associated TAOS scum with Slandaar scum yesterday.
  
• TAOS spent much of yesterday fossing HD while voting other people. (FoS: scumbuddy Vote: townie is a well known and pretty good scumtell)
  
• He called L town all day then joined her wagon late. (Possibly jumping at the opportunity to eliminate a threatening PR that could become unlynchable / preventing an HD wagon, as HD was the next place the wagon was likely to bounce to)

When the time does come for you to claim, TAOS, I would like an explanation of this:

girlie if you claim now..... I'll claim too.

I'm really curious how he can imply a power role, be town, and then not die last night. I can't see this happening unless he received doc protection and the Slandaar kill was the result of a vig kill. A vig is plausible to me since the gunsmith role was real. But that's a big damn stretch to presume. Better to presume that TAOS is scum.

VOTE: theaceofspades

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Arc/Penguin could be town. Their fate is not yet sealed.
My immediate guess about the force-replace was some form of intra-scumteam drama, given yesterday's friction between HD and Arc, but we'll see.
Arc did actually say a few townie sounding things.

TAOS remains a solid scum candidate:

• HD + TAOS team could very reasonably kill Slandaar both to protect HD and TAOS, as I associated TAOS scum with Slandaar scum yesterday.
  
• TAOS spent much of yesterday fossing HD while voting other people. (FoS: scumbuddy Vote: townie is a well known and pretty good scumtell)
  
• He called L town all day then joined her wagon late. (Possibly jumping at the opportunity to eliminate a threatening PR that could become unlynchable / preventing an HD wagon, as HD was the next place the wagon was likely to bounce to)

When the time does come for you to claim, TAOS, I would like an explanation of this:

girlie if you claim now..... I'll claim too.

I'm really curious how he can imply a power role, be town, and then not die last night. I can't see this happening unless he received doc protection and the Slandaar kill was the result of a vig kill. A vig is plausible to me since the gunsmith role was real. But that's a big damn stretch to presume. Better to presume that TAOS is scum.

VOTE: theaceofspades

[The Central Scrutinizer]

The Matt_Shadowlord case looks good to me but I'm wary of a wagon so far populated only by people that lynched a townie yesterday, and for much similar reasons. I don't necessarily think either of penguin or qwints is scum -- I just don't want us to fall for the same mistake twice.

The HD wagon looks better to me. I want to hear from theaceofspades today regarding his little slip, and then I will decide whether to soldier on or join another, probably HD-shaped wagon.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

TODAY IS THE DAY WHEN I CATCH UP ON THIS GAME

OR AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

I SWEAR IT WILL HAPPEN

Honestly, when you have the impulse to make an empty post like this... don't do it. Just reread and post. If you can't read and comment, don't post.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

If you have a reason for a reduction in suspicions towards Monkey why wouldn't the rest of town benefit from it?

What makes you think my reason is any more valid than any other put out there for a read?

Why WOULD Town benefit?
- Maybe I'm a cop and I don't want to tip my cap over an innocent result.
- Maybe I'm hinting at being a cop in order to draw a NK because I'm BP.
- Maybe I just don't trust YOU and don't want to tell you how to obtain a Town read from me.
- Maybe I want to lull Monkey into a sense of false security.
- Maybe I know Monkey is scum but I want him to think I think he's Town so I DON'T draw a NK.

I would add the possibility that you actually agree to an extent with Monkey's scumreads at this point (with the obvious exception of yourself) and therefore accord him less of a chance of being scum than in a D1, no-information situation.

Or that you're both scum and distancing like champions... but I doubt that.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Personally I don't like the role speculation. I don't think it's scummy; it's natural. But I don't see it as helpful.

And as far as your explanation of your offer to claim, I still don't like it. You were attempting to be deceptive. Is that something you commonly do as town?

Just to clarify where I stand, right now my scumlist is:

MOST

TAOS
HD
Matt
Alduskkel
fitz
Monkey
penguin
Norlkaz
Yates
qwintz

Least

[The Central Scrutinizer]

UNVOTE: theaceofspades

VOTE: Alduskkel

I'm honestly tired of this bullshit. Post something, or don't. Don't tell me that you're going to read eventually. Don't continuously prod dodge. Post something or ask to be replaced. Doing otherwise is anti-town and you deserve to be lynched for it.

This vote will go back to TAOS if you respond with actual content. I will go on the record as saying that even one PR down, I am comfortable with a policy lynch on you. If you are town this should motivate you to do

something

positive. If not, I will take it as a scum tell.

Cheers.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

@TCS....so how does Alduskkel go from 4th most suspect player on your list when he isn't doing shit, to the top of your list after he comes on and promises to start contributing?

Norklaz answered.

He's not the top of my scum list. I'm voting him for policy reasons at this point. Every time he comes in and posts fluff makes him look more and more like lazy scum.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I was about to switch to HD, but I want to see how this plays out first.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I have a hammer handy. I will give HD time to respond.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Take your time; I'm doing the same.

I don't believe him, but without a counter-claim I'm going to at least do a re-read.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

If he's really a cop, this game is balls.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I've been drinking and it's late so I'm not going to do anything substantive right now.

I'm curious about whether this is the right time for someone to claim vig. Theorycrafting opinions?

I like TAOS or Ald as a lynch. More after the Colin Kaepernick era begins.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

[quote="In post 1271, Yates"][/quote]

Both of the nightkills confuse me. As scum, you want the town to be as confused as possible. Both people who died were up there on the scumlists of more than one, and both people were legitimate causes for controversy: penguin because he was force replaced in, and fitz because HD "confirmed" him.

I suppose it's a more common play for a fakeclaim to claim innocent on an actual innocent, so maybe the Fitz kill makes sense. But penguin?

I get the feeling there's an important piece of information to be gleaned from these NKs, but I'm not sure what it is yet.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

MOD

can we get a prod, your better yet, replacement on Alduskkel? I just realized how happy I was when I saw the Llamarble post and thought he MUST be Ald's replacement.

Starting my iso re-reads and this guy has 18 posts in this game, and, barring a flurry of activity during RVS, most of them are "omg so much to read I post later guize"

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Some brief thoughts, as I didn't take comprehensive notes on re-read. Matt looks more town than not to me in light of the HD lynch. I'm still pretty comfortable with qwintz and norlkaz. I think TAOS still looks pretty scummy, and the Yates case on MonkeyMan still confuses me. I don't really agree with Monkey's reads or playstyle, but I still don't see it as scummy.

I'm a little shocked that Yates is still alive, and pursuant to my post on D1, he's moved up my scumlist several notches simply because he's alive and posting. He has been very active, and quite frankly, before the -L- flip I had him pegged as cop running some kind of gambit. Now I'm not really sure what to think, but out of all of the people I have considered town allies, I trust him the least today.

All in all, as much as it pains me not to be generating action, I'm not voting today until we see some action on, by, or on the behalf of Alduskkel.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Normally I wouldn't want to quicklynch a lurker, and this is probably the dumbest thing ever, but:

VOTE: Alduskkel

[The Central Scrutinizer]

This is what I fucking hate about vanillas not playing to their win con.

Now that we know the specifics of TAOS's role, I doubt there's a protective role.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

So unless you are scum, get your head out of your ass.

No need to be so defensive. We're almost at Lylo, so everyone is due a grilling. That includes you, that includes me, that includes everyone.
I started with you because of this profound statement from Norlkaz "Yates gets to win if he is scum. I consider him day-confirmed town."
Norlkaz as day confirmed, I can buy. The rest of us? Forget it

Why is Norlkaz day confirmed? You could make a pretty strong case that he's been buddying me, qwints, and Yates pretty hard. His vote on HD could have easily been bussing. Did I miss something, or do you just think he's very towny?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

So on a scale of one to certain, how probable is it that Yates and MM are pulling of the greatest distancing act in the history of MS?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

As opposed to the other two possibilities -- that one is scum and doesn't want to shoot the other, and that neither are scum and scum are keeping them alive to seal the game with a mislynch on one.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

If the choice is between Yates/Monkey I will probably choose to vote Monkey, because his "case" on Yates at this point is basically the same as his "case" on me, which I know to be badlogic. -L- was a good lynch based on her behavior. HD hammered himself. Alduskkel was probably a mistake but he was playing in an anti-town manner, so it wasn't a BAD lynch per se. How bad would it have been if we lynched TAOS or some other townie yesterday and Alduskkel was left alive? Honestly he was going to have to be lynched at some point given his playstyle and better it be yesterday than at LYLO.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

EBWOP: Lynching Alduskkel

so quickly

was probably a mistake, yadda yadda

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I can see now that you're FOSing me why Yates has been on your ass all game. It is really frustrating that you ignore the arguments of others and fail to ever make any yourself.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Can you articulate me an ex ante reason why either the -L- or the Alduskkel lynches were bad?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Basically what I'm saying is that you're accusing people based solely on voting history when there were perfectly good reasons to vote for both of those people.

I would be more suspicious of voting history where there's a lack of good reasons for someone to be making those votes.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

The point is that scum knew L and Ald were town. Looking back, there were warning signs on both lynches, but scum took advantage of lazy town.

What warning signs?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

You supported the -L- lynch for the same reasons I did. You literally quoted me on them and said "this is the case against L." Practically the only thing Ald had posted since RVS was "I solemnly swear to post content at some point."

Your points are unpersuasive.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

VOTE: MonkeyMan

TCS can go tomorrow given his distancing without a vote on Monkey today.

I've made only poor decisions so far this game. If it's not lylo tomorrow, I support your lynch of me. Otherwise, you'd be making a mistake.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I've played pretty poorly this game... overconfident early and under later. If it's like, Yates/Norlkaz, good work?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Well, I'm pleased, despite not being very good town this game.

Good work by Norlkaz and Matt in particular.

Thank you all for being part of my first game back on MS after so long!

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Well, I'm pleased, despite not being very good town this game.

Good work by Norlkaz and Matt in particular.

And may I say you take getting stabbed in the dark by a fellow townie very well.
It was just a maths thing, I had to reduce the remaining players to an odd number, and had to pick the one that would be easiest to convince Yates/Norlkaz was the most logical target for me to have hit. So definitely nothing personal.

And qwints did seem a teeny little bit more town.

It was a fine kill.