Open 490: Donner Party Mafia (Game Over)

[fferyllt]

Hi guys

[fferyllt]

I don't do RVS.

[fferyllt]

I don't do RVS.

Why not??

I just don't like it. After watching and playing a few games here, I do recognize that there is maybe some utility to it, but I find the stuff that ends RVS to be a lot more game-relevant than RVS itself.

[fferyllt]

I don't do RVS.

I do (begrudgingly)...

VOTE: fferyllt

Wimp

[fferyllt]

Hey GoodMorning

[fferyllt]

umm no. I left syr's posts alone because I wanted to see people's reactions to his post, not mine.

This is getting kinda convoluted.

[fferyllt]

I'm sorry GM, if you're asking me something about 58, I don't know what it is?

[fferyllt]

Well it was a very scummy RVS vote given the circumstances.

I laughed when I read his vote-post. He has text humor down.

meowmix's explanations and the swirl of replies/votes is interesting. not sure what I think about them yet.

[fferyllt]

666 is DCLXVI. And yes, the reasons are terrible, especially considering MM's more recent statements. Perhaps they're partners?

Bear with me if I am stating the obvious. I need to unpack your post.

666 jumping on havingfitz for his RVS vote is terrible because MM's explanations for not reacting to your vote look much more suspicious?

[fferyllt]

@auspiciious Why do you say MM will be a tough read later?

[fferyllt]

So do I, I think. There are some entanglements over the havingfitz/mm thing that I can't quite sort, but the vote on havingfitz for RVS voting me doesn't look good.

[fferyllt]

Liking Syryana for town.

[fferyllt]

Liking Syryana for town.

Why?

A town PoV is in your posts. Your reactions to other posts are coming from a town PoV IMO. I was totally lost initially when you said your vote on MM had just become serious. Once I worked through what was going on, your reaction was both town in PoV and protown in game-impact IMO. It was a great place to end the RVS stuff. It's a tentative read, but I'm good with it.

[fferyllt]

666 is mad

@ferryllt, how would you feel about a lynch on me today?

Based on 4 pages of posts, one of which was pretty much all RVS?

Not so great. Your defense has been a little flaily and I think that's why you picked up some votes quickly. But, I don't like how fast your wagon took off.

[fferyllt]

Goodmorning, who are your scumreads?

I have a mild scumread on Cheery. MM is definitely on my watchlist and so is #.

In other news, why did no-one see fit to mention anything about 84?
It strikes me as being quite interesting, yet went ignored by 5 different players.

Did you miss my post 85?

[fferyllt]

@auspiciious Why do you say MM will be a tough read later?

Though I'm one to talk at this point, I feel like noobtown is a liability in LYLO/MYLO. Sorry if I didn't phrase that well before.

However, that being said, yeah, I'd much rather lynch scum today.

what's interesting about it? I see it as a bit non-committal, but at the same time I'm not exactly easy to read either, so it's a fair reaction to have

I'm more curious about 81. austriloious, what do you see in fitz's 3 posts that pop out as scummy to you?

*auspicious ;P

The first post is just RVS; even if he is scum, there's nothing there that points to it/points against it there. His vote on you is what worries me most. He jumped on your wagon when it was starting to take off, and didn't give as much... background? I suppose? Like, comments about it. Questions, concerns, etc. about your behavior - he just voted and said you were full of "bs". I'm still not sure on my read on you, but I shouldn't be reading into teams yet anyway; there is a serial killer.

I also hate to admit it in these games as it's no help to anyone and makes me look like a complete fool, but part of my read on havingfitz is actually intuition/gut.

This is rather self-deprecating. I skimmed your previous MS game and you looked like a pretty strong player.

[fferyllt]

I have no problem with the gut comment.

[fferyllt]

There is one thing I agree with Mr. von Karma about, though.

@auspiciious Why do you say MM will be a tough read later?

Though I'm one to talk at this point, I feel like noobtown is a liability in LYLO/MYLO. Sorry if I didn't phrase that well before.

However, that being said, yeah, I'd much rather lynch scum today.

what's interesting about it? I see it as a bit non-committal, but at the same time I'm not exactly easy to read either, so it's a fair reaction to have

I'm more curious about 81. austriloious, what do you see in fitz's 3 posts that pop out as scummy to you?

*auspicious ;P

The first post is just RVS; even if he is scum, there's nothing there that points to it/points against it there. His vote on you is what worries me most. He jumped on your wagon when it was starting to take off, and didn't give as much... background? I suppose? Like, comments about it. Questions, concerns, etc. about your behavior - he just voted and said you were full of "bs". I'm still not sure on my read on you, but I shouldn't be reading into teams yet anyway; there is a serial killer.

I also hate to admit it in these games as it's no help to anyone and makes me look like a complete fool, but part of my read on havingfitz is actually intuition/gut.

This is the most self-deprecating post I've seen in quite some time. This posts boils down to "I'm not sure, I'm not that good, I'm not sure, my reads are purely based on gut." Seems like a pretty easy way to slide by without having to justify your reads. You, sir, now have my attention.

Wait what? You're agreeing with me there.

[fferyllt]

@Syryani, re thinking auspicious is SK, your reasoning for that is weak, IMO.

So far, I think auspicious's posts are the worst we have in hand, MM is not far behind.

VOTE: auspicious

[fferyllt]

Oops. I read the bottom of your post and confused it with Manfred's response.

There are 3 posts between mine and his.

[fferyllt]

That wasn't the quote he was talking about in his post. He picked up on #84.

I'm getting into the weeds, here, I think.

[fferyllt]

I feel like I must be missing something re Otolia. His posts haven't set off major alarms for me.

[fferyllt]

I think some people overdosed on stupid pills before this game started.

I'll elaborate on that in a bit

.

Any time now.

It was kinda weird that you retracted a random vote on me based on a scan for my RVS meta. Random votes don't need justification and don't need refutation.

[fferyllt]

It's not like the internet is made of cat gifs.

[fferyllt]

@Otoileta, I haven't really agreed with my attackers anywhere afaik; some of them simply made some valid points that I acknowledged, and and I responded to them as best as I could. attacking them would only appear to be blatant OMGUS, which would only worsen the current case against me

So if you agree that you made yourself look scummy, then there is no reason as to why the town shouldn't lynch you, isn't there ? I fail to understand your reasoning. You allegedly did something to get a reaction out of someone but yet you don't actively interpret the results or pursue anything after that. It's almost as if you were waiting for the game to unfold. And unless you actually think I am scummy, you should do something better than letting it rot on myself.

Why do scum want to make themselves look scummy?

You're seriously making bad attack after bad attack and ignoring the repercussions of people trying to get your motivation from them when the conversation continues and I think I've found what I'm meant to be doing with my vote other than leave it on goodmorning.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: otolia

Where in the quoted post do you get the bolded from?

[fferyllt]

The underlined sentence doesn't say anything about scum

wanting

to make themselves look scummy. It says that MeowMix agreed that his posts did look scummy.

You could argue that's an overstatement.

[fferyllt]

I'm thinking that auspicious got damn quiet. And I'm thinking that I don't really understand the Otolia wagon.

[fferyllt]

I'm also thinking that DCLXVI doesn't really get RVS and it seems like a lot of questionable logic has fallen like dominoes from that initial lack of grok. Question is, how real is that? It seems real to me.

[fferyllt]

I'm also thinking that DCLXVI doesn't really get RVS and it seems like a lot of questionable logic has fallen like dominoes from that initial lack of grok. Question is, how real is that? It seems real to me.

Questions...

Grok?

sorry. scifi slang for something like experiential awareness. DLCXVI

did

RVS but didn't seem to

get

RVS.

What's real?

Is it discomfort/nervousness about RVS (ie., scum and worrying about making an error) or is it typical of his play during that phase of the game? I've added this to my research list, now that I've articulated what's been bothering me.

I agree with the questionable logic part. See my post taking apart the monster under the spoiler.

Yeah, saw that.

[fferyllt]

sorry. scifi slang for something like experiential awareness. DLCXVI did RVS but didn't seem to get RVS.

Unless you are rolling dice a random vote isn't truly random. RVS is a misnomer.

substance-free/light would be a better descriptor.

[fferyllt]

fferyllt, you are the one lacking 'grok' since you don't ever do RVS.

Hopefully I get some good insight about when and why it ends.

[fferyllt]

Liking havingfitz for town.

[fferyllt]

@FF:

Why are you not giving your reads out currently, but just asking questions? You seem to be giving me the feel of trying to keep your hands clean.
Post #85.

(FF's play style reminds me of Mollie's a bit, but less posts. We have an impostor. ): )

I think my reads are in the thread. I've been dropping them as they coalesce. I'll pull them together into one post later tonight when things calm down.

Mollie?

[fferyllt]

Well then, I'll consider myself complimented

[fferyllt]

Townish

Syryana - see 92
havingfitz - when I read the thread and react to various posts, I keep finding that he's said what I was thinking. Not a sure fire town tell, but right now I like him for town.

unsure in no particular order

Cheery Dog - his arguments about goodmorning and about Otolia haven't resonated at all for me.
Malakittens - you people who post huge wall of text analyses so early in a game day are scary btw
Otolia - I said it earler - I don't understand the wagon on him. He hasn't impressed me as incredibly townish, but he hasn't raised my neck hairs either.
Superdeclan - I haven't really picked up anything negative in his posts but he has picked up a few suspicions. In ISO whatever it is doesn't jump out. I will try reading him in context tomorrow.
unseencamo - similar to Superdeclan

unsure and making me uneasy

goodmorning - her ambiguous gut reasons for initially votig Otalia mostly.
DCLXVI - I feel like he's picked out some odd things to argue about and hasn't focused as much on scumhunting

leaning scum

MeowMix - those odd choices of words when the FoSes first started flying
auspicious - "self deprecating"

I'm a little concerned that my scum reads could be partly based on clashes of play style.

[fferyllt]

@FF:

I do big posts as catch up on both alignments. So it's really a null tell rather then indicative of an alignment, but it depends on my mood because there has been games where I didn't feel like catching up.

From going by experience this setup needs active town rather then disinterested because that is the factor of winnin or losing the game. If you read the last two games the most recent had a non active town more so a more non active vig and that cost us the game. The game before had an active town and it was won.

I wasn't FoSing you for the big post. I'm going to have to get serious about a mafia gif library for MS games.

Is your next paragraph directed at me?

[fferyllt]

No, last was a general comment. Sorry. I'm on a phone and my friend was bothering me about food so I couldn't space it correctly.

No worries.

Other than my snark, what are your thoughts about my list?

[fferyllt]

I'm curious how my list matches up with yours.

[fferyllt]

Kaykaykay.

Reason why FF I wanted to reread your iSo is because I feel you have a lot of null reads while there is a lot of discussion.
As I previously stated I feel like you are flying under the radar which that initially gave me a bad feeling.

Question:

Do you like to passively gain your reads or aggressively? I don't know you and I don't know your current play style.

Your Syr, Fitz town reads do fit with your iSO although you don't like how the MeowMix wagon came started off. Aus has been under heat and you haven't really danced around with him persay.

I can see part of your case on DC, but he seems to be disinterested, but that doesn't mean he's scum for it.

As for GM - why didn't you talk to him or even bring it up when he talked about Otolia? I think you are basing part of your scum reads on not agreeing with wagons rather then actually scum hunting.

Overall - I'm not really seeing you as town, but partially scum because I'm not really seeing a lot of hunting from you.

Ordinarily I wouldn't be described as passive. Not by a long shot. This game has coincided with a couple of games that have been pretty grueling, though, and I'm still kinda feeling out how many games I can take on at once, and how to adapt my play style to MS. I'm out of the game that had me up in the rafters, now. Coming into games where I have very little first hand knowledge of the players makes me itch to do a ton of meta analysis, but, I'm trying to find a happy medium because I don't want to read tons of old games every single time I start a new one.

I have DC in one of my unsure piles.

GM said she'd try to firm up her gut read on Otolia. I've been giving her time to do that. When it came down to figuring out which group to put her in, that lack of follow-up puts her where she is. And she knows it's an issue to me, but didn't take it up in her post after my like. Which I find...what's the word....interesting.

[fferyllt]

^^ list not like.

[fferyllt]

I read the lists like this:

Town
Null
Null/leaning scum
Scum

Correct me if I'm wrong?

Close enough for rock and roll, I guess. DCXLVI Is just barely more unsure than Superdeclan and unseencamo. And sorting all of them plus GM is my current project.

[fferyllt]

I honestly have no idea what to say to you people. I'm town, and most of the reasons you think I'm scum are due to my natural playstyle - something that would show through as either affiliation. You say you don't like how I read MM; well, that's how I generally read day 1 "lynch material". Someone does something to get themselves on the chopping block, and I usually either read it as null, but would be happy to lynch it just to clear things up down the road. I've explained myself more than enough, in my opinion, but to an extent there's no more explaining that can be done. Like when Malakittens said "my posts don't sit right" with her. How the hell am I supposed to respond to that? Yeah, I'm a hypocrite; I give out gut reads but then I complain about them when people gutread me.

I don't have many concrete reads (the only ones I

do

have being Syr town, hf leaning town now, and Super scum). I can't stop you from lynching me if you're hellbent on it. What else am I supposed to do?

You could try to develop some concrete reads? That would be a hell of a townish thing to do.

[fferyllt]

Point still stands the amount of nulls is unnerving. The scum reads look like ones who have taken a lot of heat.

I

generated

a fair of the heat, particularly on auspicious.

[fferyllt]

The following pertains to Superdeclan and the assertions that he's wagon-hopping.

He picked up on my vote, which I believe was the second on auspicious.

Spoiler: Heading A

@Syryani, re thinking auspicious is SK, your reasoning for that is weak, IMO.

So far, I think auspicious's posts are the worst we have in hand, MM is not far behind.

VOTE: auspicious

I've not really looked at Auspicious closely, will do so now

Mod note: spoiler removed due to tag corruption.

The slip at the end really warrants a vote. I now belive that Auspicious is scum and he might be wifoming about mm

UNVOTE: MM
VOTE: Auspicious

And here is most of a back and forth between Syryana and havingfitz about bandwagon-jumping.

Spoiler: Heading B

Syryana...why does SD voting auspicious interest you?

Gut feeling. His bandwagon jumpery was pretty blatant. Makes him worth keeping an eye on.

Could you elaborate on this seeing as how he's been on the same two wagons as you?

It's not the wagons he's jumping to, it's the way he's jumping. He's justifying why he thinks the person he's jumping onto is scummy but not why that person is scummier than the person he just left. I don't know a better way to explain it.

I don't know think I ever say why I find someone I'm voting more scummy than the person I was voting previously. And SD was simply coming off the person he was RVing. So why would he need to justify leaving that person with anything more than a valid reason for his new vote? And iirc you didn't prove the reasoning you expect from SD when you switched from your RV target to auspicious.

The only thing I find suspect with SD's move to auspicious is that he said he was going to look at him at 12:45 pm and within 9 minutes (1:04 pm) he had made a fairly detailed analysis of auspicious' ISO and determined he was worth voting. That seems awfully quick to me. Granted...I work slowly but it almost seems like he either had his analysis already done (which I don't think is the case) or that he read auspisous' ISO with the predetermination that he was going to be finding auspicious guilty...and vote him. Which on the one hand I'm ok with because I suspect/am voting auspicious too...but it still seems off to me

.

I pretty much agree with the part of havingfitz' post that I didn't bold. Re the bold, 9 minutes doesn't sound out of the question. I don't think it took me that long to review auspicious' posts and decide to vote him shortly before that.

Spoiler headings added and inner spoiler removed. Explanation below. ~Zaicon

[fferyllt]

@fferyllt

: Since you seemed not to agree with the voters that currently are onto me. So out of goodmorning or Cheery Dog, who do you think has presented the less input to the town ? Whose vote seems more suspicious to you ?

To me goodmorning just looks like a passive townie, not really dedicated to promote genuine content, she will rely on gut feeling and won't look into getting more out of her vote than just making its target feel targeted (#143). Cheery Dog's vote (#186) is similar in appearance but from my point of view, it's a fake. The reason proposed is that I ignore the repercussions but which consequences is he talking about. Syryana decided I wasn't worth lynching today, Meowmix vote was more of provocation, and goodmorning's one is entirely gut based (as long as she doesn't post a follow-up post).

I'm still pondering whether to vote for auspicious or Cheery Dog. I see the second much scummier but the first one last post has been so bad that I'm waiting on him to participate more to decided.

My thinking last night was that goodmorning is actively worrying, in part because she's failed to present a better argument than gut on you since voting you, and doesn't appear to be pushing your lynch at all.

Cheerydog is one of the posters I just don't see much to agree with. I haven't gotten a scum vibe, but I'll take a look now.

[fferyllt]

Oh dear lord. What did you do to your post?

I have no idea. spoiler tag fail.

[fferyllt]

As I said in my introduction, your vote is not pro-town. You are voting someone for voting during RVS. That's not adapted especially since that stage ended before you cast your vote. I'd ask you to remain focus and on point as not to waste the town's energy on unnecessary concern. This point is also valid for

cheerydog

for her vote on goodmorning.

Would my vote from the RVS be any better?
The other current conversations going on are about MeowMix's defence and whatnot, which I believe are likely to be coming from a town PoV, but also that his wagon isn't currently scum driven.
I did have issues with goodmornings first post, and believe it came from a likely scum prespective. Stuff said in RVS cannot be completely ignored just because it's not as serious as latter parts of the game.
But anyway, since you seem to have problems with spread out votes early in a game (they can be a problem come near deadline, but we're currently still 12 days away from it should that come down to it)., where would my vote be better placed to help me read 11 other people's alignments over the person I'm the most suspicious of with posting so far?

After the next vote-count mine will be on Meowmix.

Why are you waiting to do it then?

Quote tags fixed. ~Zaicon

In other news, it interests me that Declan bandwagon jumped onto Auspicious.

Someone voted for him so I looked at his ISO and found him scummy.

So that confirms that theory you were looking for a bandwagon.

@fferyllt

: Since you seemed not to agree with the voters that currently are onto me. So out of goodmorning or Cheery Dog, who do you think has presented the less input to the town ? Whose vote seems more suspicious to you ?

To me goodmorning just looks like a passive townie, not really dedicated to promote genuine content, she will rely on gut feeling and won't look into getting more out of her vote than just making its target feel targeted (#143). Cheery Dog's vote (#186) is similar in appearance but from my point of view, it's a fake. The reason proposed is that I ignore the repercussions but which consequences is he talking about. Syryana decided I wasn't worth lynching today, Meowmix vote was more of provocation, and goodmorning's one is entirely gut based (as long as she doesn't post a follow-up post).

I'm still pondering whether to vote for auspicious or Cheery Dog. I see the second much scummier but the first one last post has been so bad that I'm waiting on him to participate more to decided.

My thinking last night was that goodmorning is actively worrying, in part because she's failed to present a better argument than gut on you since voting you, and doesn't appear to be pushing your lynch at all.

Cheerydog is one of the posters I just don't see much to agree with. I haven't gotten a scum vibe, but I'll take a look now.

Ok, well, from reading his ISO here are my thoughts.

- I thought a vote on goodmorning at that point he voted, given other stuff going on in the thread, looked kinda hasty. I also thought that her readslist was alignment-neutral. He eventually unvoted her based on a meta dive, it looked like.

- It wasn't until GM voted you based on gut with a slight nod to your waiting until a vote count had been posted that she really stood out to me.

- You came under fire for wanting to wait for a vote count when no votes had been posted since the previous count. I thought waiting to vote was kinda meh. But I also thought the OMGWTF WHY YOU NOT VOTE NOW??? was kinda silly.

Can you explain what specifically about Cheerydog looks scummy to you?

[fferyllt]

Hmm. A couple of extraneous quotes at the top of that post. I think I clicked them as possibly worth following up when I did the ISO.

[fferyllt]

All spoiler tags must have

="Some Heading Here"

in order to hide the contents. Otherwise, it will just black out the text.

Example with a heading:

Code: Select all

[spoiler="Heading A"]Some text.[/spoiler]

Spoiler: Heading A

Some text.

Example without a heading:

Code: Select all

[spoiler]Some text.[/spoiler]

Some text.

Also, you cannot have a spoiler inside of another spoiler, so if you are quoting someone with a spoiler, it will have to be removed.

Ah. Thanks.

[fferyllt]

DC's recent posts have been filled with holes and have a defensive sort of tone.

I like GM for town. She seems to have desire to contribute and my gut says town.

MeowMix hasn't really done anything which is problematic due to lack of evidence besides that little intro business. For this reason I will take my vote off for the time being and put it to good use somewhere else.

UNVOTE:

Where are you thinking to put your vote to good use?

[fferyllt]

^^ @unseencamo also, could you walk through what you see as the holes in DC's recent posts?

[fferyllt]

@FF:

Why are you not giving your reads out currently, but just asking questions? You seem to be giving me the feel of trying to keep your hands clean.
Post #85.

(FF's play style reminds me of Mollie's a bit, but less posts. We have an impostor. ): )

I think my reads are in the thread. I've been dropping them as they coalesce. I'll pull them together into one post later tonight when things calm down.

Mollie?

Now I know who you are talking about. I do know her outside of MS. Our paths haven't crossed in an MS game.

[fferyllt]

Point still stands the amount of nulls is unnerving.

The scum reads look like ones who have taken a lot of heat.

Not sure why, but coming back to this...What quantity of nulls is not unnerving after this quantity of posts?

[fferyllt]

Spoiler: fferyllt on goodmorning

As I said in my introduction, your vote is not pro-town. You are voting someone for voting during RVS. That's not adapted especially since that stage ended before you cast your vote. I'd ask you to remain focus and on point as not to waste the town's energy on unnecessary concern. This point is also valid for

cheerydog

for her vote on goodmorning.

Would my vote from the RVS be any better?
The other current conversations going on are about MeowMix's defence and whatnot, which I believe are likely to be coming from a town PoV, but also that his wagon isn't currently scum driven.
I did have issues with goodmornings first post, and believe it came from a likely scum prespective. Stuff said in RVS cannot be completely ignored just because it's not as serious as latter parts of the game.
But anyway, since you seem to have problems with spread out votes early in a game (they can be a problem come near deadline, but we're currently still 12 days away from it should that come down to it)., where would my vote be better placed to help me read 11 other people's alignments over the person I'm the most suspicious of with posting so far?

After the next vote-count mine will be on Meowmix.

Why are you waiting to do it then?

Quote tags fixed. ~Zaicon

In other news, it interests me that Declan bandwagon jumped onto Auspicious.

Someone voted for him so I looked at his ISO and found him scummy.

So that confirms that theory you were looking for a bandwagon.

@fferyllt

: Since you seemed not to agree with the voters that currently are onto me. So out of goodmorning or Cheery Dog, who do you think has presented the less input to the town ? Whose vote seems more suspicious to you ?

To me goodmorning just looks like a passive townie, not really dedicated to promote genuine content, she will rely on gut feeling and won't look into getting more out of her vote than just making its target feel targeted (#143). Cheery Dog's vote (#186) is similar in appearance but from my point of view, it's a fake. The reason proposed is that I ignore the repercussions but which consequences is he talking about. Syryana decided I wasn't worth lynching today, Meowmix vote was more of provocation, and goodmorning's one is entirely gut based (as long as she doesn't post a follow-up post).

I'm still pondering whether to vote for auspicious or Cheery Dog. I see the second much scummier but the first one last post has been so bad that I'm waiting on him to participate more to decided.

My thinking last night was that goodmorning is actively worrying, in part because she's failed to present a better argument than gut on you since voting you, and doesn't appear to be pushing your lynch at all.

Cheerydog is one of the posters I just don't see much to agree with. I haven't gotten a scum vibe, but I'll take a look now.

Ok, well, from reading his ISO here are my thoughts.

- I thought a vote on goodmorning at that point he voted, given other stuff going on in the thread, looked kinda hasty. I also thought that her readslist was alignment-neutral. He eventually unvoted her based on a meta dive, it looked like.

- It wasn't until GM voted you based on gut with a slight nod to your waiting until a vote count had been posted that she really stood out to me.

- You came under fire for wanting to wait for a vote count when no votes had been posted since the previous count. I thought waiting to vote was kinda meh. But I also thought the OMGWTF WHY YOU NOT VOTE NOW??? was kinda silly.

Can you explain what specifically about Cheerydog looks scummy to you?

First of all my policy not to vote after a votecount is not only destined to limit failhammer, mod mistakes and overall chaos but also because bad players tend to pick up on arbitrary policies to decide whether or not they want to vote. It doesn't matter if I say that my vote is on someone or that I vote someone. It's all a matter to text formatting. I would be accountable for my reads nonetheless. Voting isn't the ultimate weapon people think it is, it's just an affirmation of your opinion. And at the point I decided to vote against Meowmix, my opinion was already set and public. More to the point, judging someone scummy based on policy is generally bad and a proof of laziness. If goodmorning had analyzed that policy and provided a compelling analysis as to why I, as a scum player, would be motivated to apply such policy then it would have been a good attitude.

Speaking of motivation, he mentions that I have been ignoring people's case. So far, only Syryana has done something worth mentionning - he did not. Here is where it gets a little tricky : Syryana didn't vote me, so the responsibility to lead the wagon falls onto the remaining voters (namely Meowmix, who then unvoted, goodmorning who is still undecided) and as the person convinced that I'm scummy, he hasn't done anything related to me since voting - which is precisely what he said against me in #186. I'm generally wary of people absent from the frontline.

Lastly, and to continue on the point that he didn't attack me after voting, he didn't vote either nor did he unvote despite the fact that people mentioned either their incomprehension as to why I was being voted (fferyllt and havingfitz) or that Syryana vs. Me was Town vs. Town (Meowmix). He had an opportunity to either retract his vote or push the case further but neither of these scenarii happened. In my eyes, scum has little incentive to move their vote around while they aren't directly threaten and they certainly don't care whom they are voting while they are safe - the town is going to lynch someone anyway so all they have to do is blend in. Working

with

the town is adamant to a good town player, no matter how right you are if the town doesn't want to lynch your target you should drop the case or push it further. Staying at the crossroad waiting for events to unfold is clearly not what a town player should do.

Conclusion on my scum-tells against Cheery Dog

:

• Jumping eagerly on a personal pointless policy
  
• Little to no effort to actively push his case
  
• Indecisiveness and absence of reaction after seeing the town's reaction

It's a decently thought out and presented case. Do you think it applies equally to goodmorning?

[fferyllt]

Point still stands the amount of nulls is unnerving.

The scum reads look like ones who have taken a lot of heat.

Not sure why, but coming back to this...What quantity of nulls is not unnerving after this quantity of posts?

Because there is enough posts by certain players to sway towards leaning town or scum. They don't have to be solid town or solid scum reads, but they can't just be sitting in the middle. There's 10 pages of content.. If you can't read someone interact with them to find a way to get a read on them.

That didn't answer my question. How many nulls do you think are too many?

[fferyllt]

Edit of my last post

(#286, First paragraph, last sentence) : If

goodmorning

Cheery Dog had analyzed that policy and provided a compelling analysis as to why I, as a scum player, would be motivated to apply such policy then it would have been a good attitude.

---

I believe the case doesn't apply equally to goodmorning.

Though the actions are similar, the timing and reasoning behind it are different

. Whether or not I like it, Syryana is a driving force for the town. And while Cheery Dog voted after Syryana's case on me, goodmorning choose much earlier. Furthermore she didn't avoid my complaint about the fact that her interesting things didn't include any post of mine (#210, #218, #224). I still hold her accountable for the lack of motivation that she is displaying but right now she stays in the null read area rather than the scum read one.

Ok.

speaking of null read area, you're not in it. I'm going with town.

[fferyllt]

Point still stands the amount of nulls is unnerving.

The scum reads look like ones who have taken a lot of heat.

Not sure why, but coming back to this...What quantity of nulls is not unnerving after this quantity of posts?

Because there is enough posts by certain players to sway towards leaning town or scum. They don't have to be solid town or solid scum reads, but they can't just be sitting in the middle. There's 10 pages of content.. If you can't read someone interact with them to find a way to get a read on them.

That didn't answer my question. How many nulls do you think are too many?

Currently I say more than 3-4 makes me uneasy.

Then, until I have a reasonable amount of experiental meta, I'm going to make you uneasy. In a game this size, if I end day 1 with 6 non-null reads I'm happy. If it turns out I'm mostly correct, I'm ecstatic. When goodmorning replaced in, I went from 1 player I have been in a game with to 2. Both the players I have experience with are non-null.

[fferyllt]

Fair enough.

I have only completed games with four people here.

I have been playing with the same 40-50 players for years. We know each other's every twitch and tic. And we know how our games have evolved and are evolving. It got boring.

MS is insanely frustrating occasionally, but it is definitely not boring.

[fferyllt]

@ff 252: Why assume that I was aware that you were intensely interested in my OOOOOO read?

Because I called it out as my reason for where you are in my list of reads.

[fferyllt]

We need to talk more.

Who's around?

[fferyllt]

Hey.

You want to try and sort some players?

[fferyllt]

Mostly I want to talk through my nulls and see if I can firm some of them up. But maybe it would be good to baseline with some players I have tentative reads for.

[fferyllt]

I hate walls. but yeah.

[fferyllt]

I've been getting gateway errors when clicking through the thread. Seems to have cleared up. Incoming wall shortly.

[fferyllt]

Aww.

This is a rework of my earlier list of reads, with links to ISOs I did on players that I was reading null. Mostly, I'm worried that we (most of the players) aren't interacting with each other enough to get reads. There are a few back-and-forths there are a lot player pairs who haven't interacted with each other significantly at all.

Townish

Syryana - I've seen no reason to change this since post 92

havingfitz - when I read the thread and react to various posts, I keep finding that he's said what I was thinking. Not a sure fire town tell, but right now I like him for town. However, he's not posting much at all. But...neither are a lot of people. The thread is often very low in content worth responding to IMO.

Unsure leaning town

Malakittens - I am almost ready to move this slot into the town pile. She's done a lot to get people talking and answering questions.

Otolia - I like that he's reaching out to force encounters with players, and not just the ones who have FoSed him. His case on Cheerydog is accurate as far as it goes. More about that when I get to Cheerydog. -I still don't quite understand the wagon on him.

unsure in no particular order

Cheery Dog - his arguments about goodmorning and about Otolia haven't resonated at all for me. But, I'm not seeing that as scummy. I think there's a case for concern re goodmorning, I just don't agree with what he's picked as issues. ISO and convo with Otolia here. 268

Superdeclan - I haven't really picked up anything negative in his posts but he has picked up a few suspicions from other players. I've ISOed his posts since I posted my earlier reads, and I'm seeing why people are FoSing him for bandwagon-hopping, but it seems kinda weak at this point. ISO here. 210

unseencamo - similar to Superdeclan. His more recent posts seem to be coming from a town perspective. Could move him up to Unsure leaning town.

unsure leaning scum

goodmorning - her ambiguous gut reasons for initially votig Otalia mostly. Later posts haven't shed much more light. Not doing much scumhunting.

DCLXVI - I feel like he's picked out some odd things to argue about and hasn't focused as much on scumhunting
leaning scum

MeowMix - those odd choices of words when the FoSes first started flying. Some players gave him town points for first avatar choice. Not really happy with the engagement level.

auspicious - "self deprecating", etc. Seems to have given up without really fighting the lynch. or stepping up the scum hunting. Not sure what to think about that.

[fferyllt]

This game is sapping my will to live.

[fferyllt]

Good to hear re your family member, Otolia.

[fferyllt]

If nothing else, Cheery Dog, that post makes me think you're more likely to be town than not.

[fferyllt]

Hi Svenskt.

[fferyllt]

Not much. It's been hard to get stuck into this game.

[fferyllt]

I'm surprised you have a town read on me.

[fferyllt]

Any scum reads?

[fferyllt]

A good case on someone might break something loose. There has been no real competitor for this lynch since early in the game day.

[fferyllt]

Because I'm not stuck into the game, and it shows.

[fferyllt]

at the very least it's curious. sometimes I think I'm probably the person with the least concept of what my town game actually consists of.

I seem to be swimming a little bit against the current re Otolia. He's picked up some FoSes and votes, but I'm not really seeing why.

[fferyllt]

You want to believe auspicious' claim, but you want to keep your scum reads to yourself for now. Is it because of the short amount of time left on the clock?

[fferyllt]

Fair enough.

[fferyllt]

I think the unique thing about the set-up is that the alignment of the night kills aren't immediately revealed. The night killers (scum, SK vig) get that info. If we lynch a killer, then the alignment of whoever that killer has in their "larder" is revealed. If a cannibal kills another cannibal, they get the bodies of everyone the other cannibal killed. So, potentially at some point in the game we get a ton of alignment info. Until then, the night kill alignments will be unknown.

[fferyllt]

So the cannibals dont know eachother?

Two of them do - the scum team. The SK and the Vig are on their own.

[fferyllt]

Yes. Town has a Vig, gunsmith/dietitian (investigation returns whether the player is a killer or not), role blocker, and 6 vanilla town.

[fferyllt]

my hair is standing on end.

[fferyllt]

town point for that, but not for the reason you probably think.

[fferyllt]

He has twice tried to shut down attempts at conversational mode in this thread. I should really do a meta dive but effort.

[fferyllt]

also, that puts you in agreement with Otalia. Maybe you should read some of his mid-day WoTs.

[fferyllt]

I disagreed with you on that post. There were at least two reasons for GM to post that: to cast the auspicious' comment as potentially scummy for the benefit of other players, and to press for a reaction from auspicious.

I can't quite shake the feeling that GM stirred the pot there, but stays clear of the bandwagon.

[fferyllt]

That's a pretty substantial set of town reads. I hadn't gotten quite that comfortable with Unseencamo, though I rather liked his RVS vote on me.

[fferyllt]

True. Which conjures some unsettling thoughts about those larders.

I was kinda planning to have a go at Cheery today. hmm.

[fferyllt]

He also hates conversational-mode posts. :/

[fferyllt]

eeww

[fferyllt]

Any thoughts about havingfitz? I had him in my town pile but was considering moving him further down the list near the end of day 1. Svenskt challenging me on that read was what I considered to be a town point.

[fferyllt]

You are not captain.

[fferyllt]

A better question would be why do you think you are?

[fferyllt]

yeah no.

[fferyllt]

Hey, gm. List the top five things you find most interesting thus far, from greatest to least.

MMK.

The MM discussions on the first couple pages

Auspicious' 84
Cheery's 42
MM's 41
Cheery's point on Sd

That's the five things that I have called/agreed "interesting" so far this game, ordered as requested.

what have you gleaned from these? Particularly the first one, since at the time it was the most interesting.

[fferyllt]

That time of the month huh.


In the mean time, here is something you could work on.

IF the killers (scum, vig) get the information of the flip the night they kill somone, how should we act to exploit it. I am waiting for a answer from mod if they do get the info. But give it some thought and be abit productive.

The killers do get the alignment information in this game set up. Like any other informational role, they know something that town (and in the case of the vig, the rest of town) doesn't know. Behaviorally, hidden knowledge may be detectable. Sorting the good tells from the questionable ones could be a challenge.

I played this game format once a few years ago on another site. IIRC, after one of the killers was lynched, when looking back at prior days town felt that there were a lot of knowledge-clues in his play that had been missed.

[fferyllt]

This makes me think of 2plus2.

[fferyllt]

like

VOTE: DCL

[fferyllt]

@Fery - do you like the wagon or the posts above you? It's unclear exactly in your post so I want clarification.

Both.

DCL was pretty far down my reads list day 1. Before I voted, I was flipping back and forth between ISO and context on both goodmorning's and DCL's posts, and had come to the section of the thread where DCL and I engaged in a pointless discussion of RVS. It occurred to me that RVS is almost the only topic that DCL has addressed to me so far this game. And then I came back to present game day and saw, Syr's and your posts about tunneling. It all clicked quite nicely.

[fferyllt]

I was the one who did that. my bad.

[fferyllt]

UNVOTE: DCL

I'm not telling you why, DCL, because then word will get out and everyone will know how to get me to unvote them.

[fferyllt]

too many pots on the fire today.

[fferyllt]

I hate this game.

Svenskt, I did not have a town read on you or your predecessor on day 1. I don't know what the hell to think about day 2.

[fferyllt]

I hate this game.

Svenskt, I did not have a town read on you or your predecessor on day 1. I don't know what the hell to think about day 2.

You never have a town read on me

, and thats just you being a coward to not trust your reads. I cant allways be scummy.

I dont know what you are doing, but you hating this game is making me think that you are scum. I am seeing no will to solve the riddle and if there are other reasons for that share them.

That patently false statement isn't making me feel better.

[fferyllt]

And syry, thats from "happily having added me to his town pile" 2 pages ago.

See, bulbazac's vote on you was a huge red flag. And your inferences about the vote do make me feel better about the possibility you are town.

I know I'm not playing to the unsubtle parts of my meta in this game, but game design affects how I play, and I get progressively irritable in games where the design shuts down big parts of how I solve the game puzzle as you put it.

I've been leaning to Cheery as the vig kill (maybe SK...maybe) and unseencamo as the scum target.

[fferyllt]

I've been leaning to Cheery as the vig kill (maybe SK...maybe) and unseencamo as the scum target.

Fery, how did you come up with this?

unseen looked town to me. That hesitance about lowering the hammer given the lynch dynamic looked confident and kind "screw you" in terms of the fallout that could have occurred at the start of day 2.

If I were vig, I might have gone after Cheery last night. Otolia's case wasn't strong, certainly not strong enough to drive a lynch, but some of Cheery's posts did bother me.

[fferyllt]

Ffer, the question you should ask if someone of the target players was dubble tapped.

How would that work, if a SK/VIG/Scum sending in kill, is killed do their action still go throu? If they do we know there was a double tap.

I have no idea whatsoever how that's handled at MS or if it's a Mod/game specific call. IME elsewhere, mods usually decide the kill order or how they will handle collisions before the game starts. In games with SKs, I've sometimes seen the SK kill go first due to the relative difficulty of an SK winning. The other order I've seen most often with multiple NKs is simply "all kills go through" so a killer can't target another killer and prevent their kill from taking place.

[fferyllt]

I've been leaning to Cheery as the vig kill (maybe SK...maybe) and unseencamo as the scum target.

Fery, how did you come up with this?

unseen looked town to me. That hesitance about lowering the hammer given the lynch dynamic looked confident and kind "screw you" in terms of the fallout that could have occurred at the start of day 2.

If I were vig, I might have gone after Cheery last night. Otolia's case wasn't strong, certainly not strong enough to drive a lynch, but some of Cheery's posts did bother me.

You shouldnt mix in your read but rather the cencous of town. How did it appear ?

Look even if camo was town and you are town and you are right on you read that doesnt make a good explanation for why he was killed. I think he looked suspicios with his delayed hammering and others called it out too. Thats whats important, people get killed when there is alot of players having them as town.

In the perfect world the SK killed the scum night actioneer. That makes sense to me.

It appeared to be the kind of kill target that confuses the hell out of town. I think that game situations where that sort of kill makes sense for scum is when town is really barking up the wrong tree in terms of who they suspect and who they think is town. I'd like to think that's the situation in this game because it would explain why my reads are currently so muddy.

The possibility of it being an SK kill can't be left off the table, though.

[fferyllt]

VOTE: Bulbazak

[fferyllt]

I dont think "hey lets confuse the hell out of town" is a good strategy for nking someone. I dont think people act that way.

Self preservation takes over.

Someone has to be endangered for self-preservation to be the driving force.

If you're right that it's self-preservation, then who did unseencamo threaten?

[fferyllt]

camo was near my null/town border. And I thought his play at the end looked townie, not scummy. The auspicious lynch was going through at day's end due to the lynch dynamic.

[fferyllt]

Did anyone actually call me out for not explaining my DCL unvote? I actually expected to get some flack for that, but hadn't noticed any.

[fferyllt]

damn it.

[fferyllt]

your roleblock choice lines up with what I would probably have done.

This is not a good lynch guys.

[fferyllt]

I am screaming bored and at times srsly sleep deprived. Especially Monday.

ironic that the stuff that was drawing votes your way yesterday was what pushed you in the town direction for me.

[fferyllt]

Svenskt are you feeling better about havingfitz? Of the people who voted you, he's the only one I've moved in a townward direction.

[fferyllt]

some of them were already pretty town, though. Mala and Syryana. Goodmorning and Otolia.

Mala kinda sticks out atm.

[fferyllt]

I read his recent unvote as a sign of legit doubt if that means anything.

for me, it's when/how he went after you in the first place, in light of your claim.

[fferyllt]

^^ re Mala, it's because she didn't vote you, though she did some cheerleading.

[fferyllt]

I think the dullness is leftover resignation about your lynch. Not having shown your work re unseencamo was really blown into a federal case.

I am probably not going to suddenly jump to what you think is normal in this game, If that's a problem, then you know where the vote button is.

[fferyllt]

You had mala as town, what changed?

unless I missed something she didn't vote you - she just cheerlead other people's votes, particularly otolia's.

[fferyllt]

But that reason revolves arround you having me as town, which you cant possibly know.

I told you that what was drawing votes push you in a townward direction for me.

You are one of maybe 3 MS players that I think I can get a reliable town read on, though it's not necessarily instantaneous. Once I have a town read, it takes quite a bit to shake it, particularly in your case because there's a baseline erratic vibe to your town game that I did not see in that scum game you played a while back - newbie game.

[fferyllt]

I think it's implicit in what I wrote. I'm analyzing your bandwagon as a wagon on a town player.

[fferyllt]

You know whether your wagon is a town wagon. What are your thoughts about the people who voted, and who didn't?

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I liked your vote.

[fferyllt]

I would include Mala among Svenskt's attackers, though she has her vote on DCL. She went after him pretty hard for someone who didn't follow that up with a vote.

[fferyllt]

My vote is where I want it for now.

[fferyllt]

My vote is where I want it for now.

Don't like this. When I read it it looks as if you saying your vote isn't solid and you are planning on moving it in the future.

Of course it isn't solid. Data acquisition happens. But, I do think svenkst is onto something. If I were to move it right now, I'd move it to you. But, I want to do some serious digging tonight, and I want to see more from bulbuzak in this thread.

[fferyllt]

Two Things:

You say I stick out because I didn't hop on the wagon? I have a tendency to not want to vote with scum reads plus the fact you are forgetting that I wasn't entirely sold on Sven-scum, but wasn't sold on him being town either. Fery it's very close to your posts other then I wrote out my thought process more instead of one liners. Only exceptions to that is when I have a super high scum read on the player and then I'll vote even if my scum reads are present at the wagon or if time is closing up and it's almost a NL happening.

I sympathize with the voting with scum-reads thing. It's scared me off more than one wagon when that happens.

As I stated before I have a gut feeling that CD is a kill done by Oto. Now I'm not sure if Oto is scum or the SK, but he's probably one of the two. I usually don't do much team hunting by itself, but focus on all three as scum.

Maybe, though it leaves such an obvious arrow pointing back at him that I would think it just about as likely that the kill was meant to suggest otolia as the killer. I've certainly considered that sort of WIFOM when planning kills as scum. As SK, my strategy might have gone cheery's direction, though the lack of cardflip makes SK target all but moot.

Fery - you are on to talk.. You put DC up to L-1 with no apparent reason the start of Day 2 other then saying 'like'.

Yeah I did. That was during the worst of my sleep-deprived period and I was (and am) pretty horrified that I put that vote without refreshing my memory on the number of votes to lynch and exactly what the count was. I'm going to stay away from the laptop when I'm that short on sleep hereafter. I'm not really used to worrying about the vote count early in the game since where I usually play majority vote doesn't end the game day. Here I'm either too worried, or as in this case all but oblivious.

GM's vote on Sven wasn't that good either. It looks as if he just put Sven at L-1 to draw a claim as he's been barely present in the thread. (I understand the V/LA, but seems as you are okay to vote people at L-1 with very little discussion in regards to them)

It could just be the games I've been in since joining, but I find the sensitivity to putting people at L-1 varies greatly. Is GM usually more one to want discussion before L-1?

_______

Syr's intent to hammer wasn't good either. Only because as I stated I believe scum want to draw PR's out and that's exactly the way to go about doing them.

I dunno about this one. Syr's been my strongest town read most of the game. The "case" on Svenskt was strong if you assume that someone who'd just replaced in would have a really good sense of the lay of the game. His memory/show-the-work failings looked like townish mistakes. I'm meticulously careful about that sort of thing when scum. It's hard to imagine a scum-slip of that sort getting past the self-censor.

I'm so not liking Fery's recent posts. They seem to deflect everything to me yet she isn't voting me due to it. She says I been cheerleading yet she's doing the same exact thing right now. There's also the fact you seem to be disregarding all of your Day 1 reads which could or could not be a scum tell.

VOTE: Fery

Like I said when I first skimmed this, I like my vote on bulbuzak. And I am quite aware that town players easily wind up in the wrong place at the wrong time when bandwagons take off.

I'm still planning on looking at Oto when I get home from work to see if I can get any evidence that Oto killed CD because that's the feeling I got.

GM and you are where I plan to focus my efforts. Though reading this post more carefully does allay some of my concerns. Your reply to Otolia's wall yesterday seemed almost gleeful in tone, and that kinda stuck with me.

[fferyllt]

^^ I have a hard time imagining scum wanting town to know that tidbit.

moving otolia higher in my townlist.

[fferyllt]

@fferyllt : It's also very easy to fake.

My goal here was to somehow diminish the likelihood of Svenskt being scum. If scum hadn't had a way to communicate the NK then (in the hypothesis that Svenskt is lying) he would have 1/6 chance of being in the safe position to claim roleblocker (scum or NKing goon) whereas now it's 1/3 chance. That is of course if nobody counter-claims. We'll see. I might even go all-in here.

It's tactical information that town did not have before you asked the question. I don't see the scum advantage in pressing for that info to be public.

[fferyllt]

I was about to say.. Scum are aware that they have daytalk and could easily fake asking things like that. There's also the fact SK doesn't have any communcation with scum therefore you are removing the fact Oto could be SK.

Fery if you meta'd me you would find that I do NK analysis as town rather then scum. In fact as scum I will not do it at all and if asked straight up front - I ignore it as a whole.

that is a level of detail that I would never get from cold-reading games. I look for stuff in old games, but never get to that level of detail without actually playing games with the person.

[fferyllt]

@Mala your point about SK is valid. I'm just not picking up killer vibes from otolia's posts so far.

[fferyllt]

@Fery - I understand you wanting to meta a player based on current games that you played with, but I'd never vote someone who's playing to their town meta as it's likely they will flip town and not scum.

Is this self-meta here, or talking about someone else? I thought it was self-meta in the post I replied to.

[fferyllt]

So, it kinda bothers me when I do NK analysis and there's a similar reaction to what you had because it brings up memories from that game because scum panicked and tried to deflect it.

I'm not trying to deflect it. I have lines I don't cross as far as my own meta goes. I'm still smarting over a recent run-in over the validity of my own meta as self-described.

I'm not really sure though, why you thought your meta about NK analysis was relevant. I don't remember FoSing you for doing that.

[fferyllt]

I'm currently concerned with those who still want to push the Sven is scum card even though he claimed RB'er. I understand where you think he's scum, but what happens if he's the actual PR and you guys ended up lynching him off because you don't believe a claim.

@Sven - Explain why you are going to land your vote on GM?

@Fery - I understand you wanting to meta a player based on current games that you played with, but I'd never vote someone who's playing to their town meta as it's likely they will flip town and not scum.

Just because you aren't see killing vibes from Ot doesn't mean they aren't there.

CD's greatest suspects where Ot and GM. If I was SK or scum - I would have killed someone who was likely onto me to avoid having one more person on my neck the next day. You say it's a setup (yes in reality - it could be), but if Ot turns up to flip scum or SK - I'd be really pissed at myself when all neon signs are there yet I didn't do anything to stop it.

Dont like the bolded stuff for the same reason I didnt like ffer´s reaction. Bulba is right, I could have killed the roleblocker and be in a position where I know I wont be counter claimed.

This talk about catching the SK base on vibes is pretty iffy, people say stuff like "i get power role vibes from player x" "he plays it like an SK would"... I have actually never seen anything to back up that they are right more often then rand.

We catch SK like we catch scum.

I don't know how well I can do it here. I did catch two different MS players twice - with killing roles. SK and Scum for one, and SK and Vig for the other - on another site. Their play against the backdrop of players I know well stood out starkly.

Here, the backdrop is muddy because there are always more unfamiliar players than familiar, but I have spotted PR tells here and there. I don't know if it will ever get as accurate here as where I've played in the past.

Anyway, yeah you think I'm scummy. I'll get over it.

[fferyllt]

So you dont "have to" make a decision, you could put me in the wait and see pile, which I think is the correct approach.

Though if you are the NK there is no telling when we'll actually learn your role card/flip. And we can't wait too long.

It is interesting to see who is pushing hard on this, though.

Maybe it

is

the scum kill that is missing. The people I thought were forming a nascent town core on day 1 are still alive.

[fferyllt]

I'm currently concerned with those who still want to push the Sven is scum card even though he claimed RB'er. I understand where you think he's scum, but what happens if he's the actual PR and you guys ended up lynching him off because you don't believe a claim.

@Sven - Explain why you are going to land your vote on GM?

@Fery - I understand you wanting to meta a player based on current games that you played with, but I'd never vote someone who's playing to their town meta as it's likely they will flip town and not scum.

Just because you aren't see killing vibes from Ot doesn't mean they aren't there.

CD's greatest suspects where Ot and GM. If I was SK or scum - I would have killed someone who was likely onto me to avoid having one more person on my neck the next day. You say it's a setup (yes in reality - it could be), but if Ot turns up to flip scum or SK - I'd be really pissed at myself when all neon signs are there yet I didn't do anything to stop it.

Dont like the bolded stuff for the same reason I didnt like ffer´s reaction. Bulba is right, I could have killed the roleblocker and be in a position where I know I wont be counter claimed.

This talk about catching the SK base on vibes is pretty iffy, people say stuff like "i get power role vibes from player x" "he plays it like an SK would"... I have actually never seen anything to back up that they are right more often then rand.

We catch SK like we catch scum.

I don't know how well I can do it here. I did catch two different MS players twice - with killing roles. SK and Scum for one, and SK and Vig for the other - on another site. Their play against the backdrop of players I know well stood out starkly.

Here, the backdrop is muddy because there are always more unfamiliar players than familiar,

but I have spotted PR tells here and there

. I don't know if it will ever get as accurate here as where I've played in the past.

Anyway, yeah you think I'm scummy. I'll get over it.

And you are sure this isnt selective reasoning? Like, "yeah he

was

dropping tells". Or you have five people dropping PR tells in a 13er... one is a PR, did you have an above rand ability to predict it? I would be astounded if you did.

Anyway this is just interesting and not really productive.

The largest game was 24 players. The smallest one was 16 players iirc We can talk about the details another time.

[fferyllt]

I don't like this.

Not this game. I've got nothing to say about this game except that I stayed the fuck off Svenskt's bandwagon. I had a feeling about that 2plus2 style list he posted.

I spotted the doc in my first MS game. He was up for lynch and I worked my butt off to get another townie lined up as the alternate bandwagon that day. If I had been town, I'd have been looking for scum. The doc wound up refusing to claim for reasons I don't understand and was lynched day 1. Can't talk about other games at this time, but I'll be happy to compare notes later.

[fferyllt]

@svenskt are you feeling better about bulbuzak or is it more about feeling worse about Otolia and GM?

[fferyllt]

I value my team mates, even if I don't know who they are.

[fferyllt]

lol I'm not saying anything that I haven't shown clearly by actions in how I play mafia.

[fferyllt]

you dummy.

I already did.

[fferyllt]

What was terrible about that vote was not knowing for sure what the count was when I placed it.

Won't be logged in when I'm that groggy again.

[fferyllt]

I think Oto is a good wagon. Since its not getting attention even though people have been trying to build it since Day 1..

Usually when a wagon is hard to build there's a high chance of it being scum

..

How so?

[fferyllt]

Our legal system doesnt have a death tax that kills people... this is a race between NKs and cleared townies, so your point is invalid. If you want to go arround and trust everyone thats another scum point.

Irrelevent.

My point about the principle of innocent before proven guilty still stands. There is good logic behind that principle. The point is that it is basically impossible to prove that you are innocent of something. A reason court decisions are guilty/not guilty. NOT guilty/innocent.

In other words, you are asking me to do something that is in all practicality impossible instead of making a case against me.

Who do you think are scum and why?

[fferyllt]

fferllt...how many games have you been in with Sven? And if any...how many was he town or scum?

This is probably more answer than you want.

I've played 4 games with Svenskt so far, including this one. Two are completed. He has one completed game where he was scum. I didn't play it, but I read the game thread in an effort to gather meta on someone else who also played the game. Reading his posts in context in that game, I figured he was probably scum. I checked the endgame to see if I was right. I was. That is as close as I can come to playing a game without actually playing it and interacting with the players. I think I have a pretty good handle on his town game. In the borkgame that just ended, I saw how he reacts as town to unexpected, intense and basically unearned pressure. This reaction doesn't match because the pressure was to some extent earned. In the scum game I read, I saw how he reacts as scum to pressure, though it was nothing like the pressure orcinus put on him. (orcinus and I were a hydra in the micro borkgame).

The other finished game where he didn't know my alignment, I think he had a pretty strong town read on me/orcinus. This game, I'm definitely not doing my usual town thing consistently. So, although I'm annoyed he's not easily reading me as town, I know it's mostly my doing. His announcing a town read on me coming into the game was a little surprising, and I didn't really get over that until he posted the 2plus2 style list early day 2.

[fferyllt]

UNVOTE: bulbuzak

VOTE: svenskt

[fferyllt]

WTF ?!

It' a little late for that.

[fferyllt]

Quite possible one of those last 3 votes (including myself btw) was scum.

But, I'm thinking it was DCL.

[fferyllt]

Alright folks, I'm going all-in on Svenskt. I may not be able to post details immediately (I'm supposed to see friends soon) but I'm putting my life on the line.

Svenskt isn't the Roleblocker. He is scum and he should die.

This looked like a counterclaim to me. I put Svenskt at L-2. Was shocked at how quickly that went to hammer.

[fferyllt]

It didn't look like a counter claim.

It looked like confirmation bias. I don't think Oto put much thought into it how Sven could have accidentally missed that part in regards to not knowing the SK had a 1 shot RB immunity. He saw what looked like a slip and went full head on heels to it. What did it cost us? a PR being lynched where we could have lynched scum instead.

Why are you voting Otolia then?

[fferyllt]

visible in the thread and caught up aren't the same thing unfortunately. At the time I posted my vote I thought it was a counter claim. I read oto's later post that made it clear it wasn't a counter claim but by the time I'd gotten all that processed, Syr had already hammered.

I am worried that town is going to lose off the back of that bandwagon. I doubt my explanations will help.

Oto's explanation resonates for me. I doubt I'll vote him today. Not sure what I will do with my vote atm. I want to read what Syr has to say.

[fferyllt]

also, in the future when I get shit for being jittery about a bandwagon, this game will be my exhibit A that it's not just derpiness that leads to quicklynches.

[fferyllt]

Syr I'm happy with you as town. You scare me occasionally because if I were scum (or SK for that matter) you'd probably be dead, but I can't see your posts not coming from a town place.

In your scenario, you and bulbuzak are town. Town plus the SK pretty much have to vote together today. There is a chance that a scum player winds up bussed, but I'm not counting on it. You and bulbuzak have to get on the same wagon.

[fferyllt]

Syr I'm happy with you as town. You scare me occasionally because if I were scum (or SK for that matter) you'd probably be dead, but I can't see your posts not coming from a town place.

What are you trying to say here?

And yes, I think Bulba is town. I also think you are town, moreso than GM anyways.

I'm saying that I'll vote with you two because I think you re right, and I think you are town. And we have to count on the SK joining, while keeping in mind that we could wind up with a scum bus instead.

[fferyllt]

I was asking what you meant about me scaring you and that I'd be dead if you were an anti town role.

I'm saying that you would have been a priority kill if I weren't town. The day 1 kills were confusing as fuck. But last night, I *think* the DCL kill was meant to focus attention on you and me, since he was the L-1 vote. havingfitz, though, I dunno. I've never played with him before and I don't know if he'd be considered more likely to organize town than the other remaining town players.

[fferyllt]

Interesting development of events. It looks as if the scumteam decided to split their votes. The SK doesn't look to be very interested in my lynch which is great for town.

It sounds like you have thoughts on who is what role. Share?

[fferyllt]

I'll readily admit that I don't fully understand the situation. We're eyebrow deep in permutations.

[fferyllt]

I'm not really liking Syr and starting to not see him as town. Bulba deff feels town. I'm on the rocks about Fery only because she's basically feels like a swing vote. Meaning I don't really like how she hasn't commented on Syr/I's exchange, but asked Oto about his reads. That feels off.

I am really on and off regarding GM. So guess he's null leaning scummy, but I wouldn't vote him at the moment because he's not really a top suspect.

I'm starting to warm up to an Oto-town. Just due to the claim being locked in and due to the gambit. He doesn't seem to be fighting it and I wouldn't think scum would give up so easily. Not sure if that makes sense.

I haven't commented about your exchange because it makes my head hurt.

[fferyllt]

You have no opinion on it whatsoever, Ffery?

I'll have an opinion when I know what I understand and don't understand. Right now, I'm inclined to think Syry is more likely town but that is in part residual from day 1/2. Mala worked her way into my town pile but it's not as solid. Her scenarios are more complete but I feel like there is also more agenda in them.

[fferyllt]

GM.

[fferyllt]

Interesting development of events. It looks as if the scumteam decided to split their votes. The SK doesn't look to be very interested in my lynch which is great for town.

It sounds like you have thoughts on who is what role. Share?

I am still analyzing people's motivations and associations, but I won't share them right now as there is little benefit to it. It seems like you and almost everyone else doesn't fully understand the situation we are in. When I gambled, I went all-in. People think I lost all influence when Svenskt Stal was revealed to be what he claimed. That's why scum are so wary of voting me today. They would prefer to keep me around in case of emergency or for the last day.

But that's not how it works :

Either I'm lynched today or I'm declared unlynchable.

Letting me alive without granting me that perk would not only create situation where everyone is capable of pulling out WIFOMey situation out of their hat but it would also not concretely cover the aftermath of my gambit.

"Either I'm lynched today or I'm declared unlynchable" How so?

[fferyllt]

Mala, IME it's almost always the case that scum worry more about the SK than town do until late game. This alone makes me suspicious, but given we know zip about the roles of the people who have been night killed, and we don't know if this is MYLO I can't say that your concerns are unwarranted. Still, I distrust.

[fferyllt]

Well, since that's part of what makes Mala look scummy to me - making the SK a priority - it should be obvious that I agree with you.

[fferyllt]

I'm looking for consensus among my town reads before I put a vote down. With up to 3 non-town players left, town really can't afford to split the vote. I don't know that my town reads are correct, but it's the best I've got. I want to vote with you, Otolia and <the correct pick between Syr and Mala>.

[fferyllt]

Right now I think the correct pick is Syr. And that's a major point of disagreement with you, Bulbazak.

[fferyllt]

Like I said, the possibility that this is MYLO is mitigates it. Bringing down an SK could result in town cred without sacrificing a team mate. It's a non-scum lynch that probably won't bounce at the last minute and won't hurt scum. And could help scum by eliminating a night time threat. The SK is more threatened by scum at night, too, which could take NK priority off obvious town players. Not that we have a bunch of them lying about ATM.

[fferyllt]

because NKng suspected killers takes priority?

Syr still being alive does freak me a little. As do you. You took some shine off your towniness today, but that had no impact on the n1/n2 kills.

It's kind of odd to be using this argument on other players, btw. It's one I've faced long before endgame in a lot of games.

[fferyllt]

That's true of everyone at this point including Syr. We're all easy lynch targets except possibly bulbuazak.

[fferyllt]

But, we have skills that make us dangerous as town even if we are on the face of it lynchable. I don't know havingfitz - maybe he is that good at logic or intuitive leaps or organizing town that it made sense to remove him instead of someone else. I think he did have more town cred than nearly everyone who is alive after that disaster of a quickwaagon.

[fferyllt]

well, IMO the DCL nk was meant to point attention in that direction - toward Syr and me. That's a point in Syr's favor if I'm right about why DCL was killed.

[fferyllt]

I'm tired too, but this is helping me examine and articulate some of my impressions from day 2 and what we know of night 2.

[fferyllt]

Why can't you see that the DC kill could have pointed to me or even GM? You seem so quick to say it points in that direction, but you don't take in the possibilities it could have been directed for other reasons too. Seems as if you have an ulterior motive to try and clear you and Syr yet try to paint it off on possibly GM or I.

You've probably said why you think the kill points to you. summarize?

[fferyllt]

Mala I think it points to me because after yesterday I expected to start today as the obvious lynch candidate, and an all but sure-fire mislynch. That expectation colors most of my thoughts about overnight plots and plans.

I'm more than a little puzzled that it hasn't worked out that way so far.

[fferyllt]

So does all this prior games stuff weigh all that heavily with the remaining players? Do you think it's persuasive?

[fferyllt]

I have too.

I personally have taken players down with meta tells. I've done it more often as town than as scum.

I'm not yet in a position to appreciate meta tells on most MS players.

[fferyllt]

this is objectively inconclusive, but I do feel like I'm talking to town here.

[fferyllt]

I have been anything but terrifying this game. :/

If I were willing to sheep you I would have followed your first vote. What I want is for my town reads to be on someone I think is scum.

Which...looky here...is happening maybe.

Will sleep on this.

[fferyllt]

You're bigging up my game, but all you've seen of me is crappy play. I absolutely can play well, though. I won't deny that.

[fferyllt]

I don't think I'm doing anything weird. If you are right and we're 3-2-1 today, town absolutely must vote together and correctly. And we have to count on the SK throwing in with us. Or possibly scum bussing one of their own.

[fferyllt]

There's the third option - we wind up on SK instead of scum, in which case scum will be happy to help with the lynch.

[fferyllt]

There's the third option - we wind up on SK instead of scum, in which case scum will be happy to help with the lynch.

This can be easy misleading. Scum might want to 'find' the SK, but I would believe they would be fine with any lynch not on themselves.

I think you are also trying to say, but it's very indirect. That you believe GM is scum because everyone has some sort of will to want to lynch him. This makes me think GM is town off that.

When I wake up I want to compare GM's place on the wagon to both Syr and Oto's. I don't believe each are different from each other because they all had prior scum reads on Sven's slot. All three votes were oppurnist, but Syr's was the worst. Along with the fact all 3 people {Syr, Oto & Fery} were also on the Aus lynch. That makes it a higher chance 1/3 is indeed scum because they do need mislynches to win, but also the chance more could be scum.

____

I also could say that Syr's vote on GM looks survivalist even though he may have a scum read on GM, but Syr probably thinks the lynch is tied down to two people when it's not. He seems to be content on just lynching GM and not persuing his higher scum reads to try and convince others to vote.

You are his higher scum read, I think.


I was going to put my vote down now, but I'll wait until you do these analyses.

[fferyllt]

This can be easy misleading. Scum might want to 'find' the SK, but I would believe they would be fine with any lynch not on themselves.

Post 926 covers that. If a town player votes for another town player, then it opens up a viable bandwagon as far scum are concerned. That's actually your point with the GM wagon, I think. If GM is town, then 2 town votes on that wagon should bring scum votes along in a hurry.

[fferyllt]

Yeah I remember where your vote is.

[fferyllt]

We've had missing kills both nights. Which probably means at least one killing faction is already dead (sk or vig). If the vig is alive, I believe he/she would out today because town desperately needs info about prior kills. So, the vig is likely dead. I know others have said this, but I'm connecting dots so bear with me.

It's possible that another killer died last night. We may have as many as 3 players still in the game who have knowledge about flips that the rest of us don't have. It could be fewer. It could be even 1.

That knowledge could be coming out in in-game behaviors. Or the suppression of knowledge could be.

The most opaque player (to me) at the moment is GM - this fits the suppression of model of behavior.

The player whose behaviors seems to be most influenced by hidden knowledge is Oto.

Syr and mala's posts could be be influenced, but if so they are good at looking inquisitive rather than like they know the answers.

This is me thinking out loud.

[fferyllt]

I've no idea what fferyllt is up to.

It's not for want of me saying what I'm thinking.

[fferyllt]

Sorry I got distracted, you seem wary of making a decision.

how so? he's got a vote down.

[fferyllt]

Assuming worst case, town has to be as survivalist as any other faction. The difference is in how town survives - it's as much about finding town as it is about finding scum.

[fferyllt]

Sorry I got distracted, you seem wary of making a decision.

Irony

[fferyllt]

town - bulbazak
unsure - Mala, Syr
scummy - GM

I am leaning SK on Otolia.

I'm concerned that my putting a vote on GM would result in an immediate hammer. And if I'm wrong about her, then it's probably game over.

[fferyllt]

I'm concerned that my putting a vote on GM would result in an immediate hammer. And if I'm wrong about her, then it's probably game over.

Ffery, I believe that her scum buddy is already on her wagon, and if not, they'll probably scum hammer, which means we can lynch them tomorrow for the win. I feel confident that GM will flip scum.

I realize that's what you are thinking. It's implicit in your reads list.

Otolia's being extremely cagey today. I'd like to see more definite reads in place of intimations and portents from him.

[fferyllt]

@fferyllt

: You are asking too much. From my point of view, I lost the game when I fumbled my read on Svenskt Stal. I urged the town to take a clear decision on my fate and I haven't seen any town-aligned opinions. I need to be cleared or lynched and lose. You can call me a SK all you like - despite the fact that anyone with sufficient mafia experience wouldn't - it doesn't change the fact that I need to be sure I am trusted by the town before I can go on. If I am not, my reads won't matter because all scum needs to counter any argument I made is to speak about Svenskt Stal. It is in the best interest of the town to make a decision about me. It is sad that it has come to this and that's my responsibility but I don't see any other alternative for the town to live tomorrow and ultimately win.

That's not to say, I don't have reads or that I don't have ideas as to whom might be town but right now I need more than hints, I need certitude. Earlier into the game I said that cohesive town tramples everything, we need it now or it will be too late.

I don't think what you are asking for is reasonable or enforceable. I am not sure how you would be able to ascertain that town players agreed to this. Not being lynched today won't automatically result in trust tomorrow. It almost never does.

I had you as town most of the game, and I probably would still have you as town if it weren't for this demand to be either lynched or given full trust. What you're doing doesn't fit scum motivation as far as I can tell. And that leaves SK.

[fferyllt]

I do agree about cohesive town. That comes down to trusting you town reads even if you don't feel the trust is reciprocated. At least that's how it works for me.

Otolia will you at least share your current thoughts on GM?

[fferyllt]

So you would prefer not to lynch GM? That effectively vetoes the lynch IMO, because I don't see Mala switching to GM.

Everyone except possibly bulbazak is in the same situation you feel applies to GM (and you as well?) - a liability or anti-town.

One question would be why havingfitz was NKed rather than bulbuzak. DCL I think would have been as lynchable as any of us.

Your explanation of your thoughts about Svenskt hold together IMO. The thing I haven't been able to process is why you think it makes sense to not put your thoughts about other players out there.

[fferyllt]

Syryana has his vote on goodmorning already.

[fferyllt]

That makes no sense, Otolia. If you are the SK then town's loss is part of your win condition.

[fferyllt]

I like his reads list too. I have Mala at unsure mostly because it's not as strong a read as I have on bulbazak.

I'm struggling with moving Syryana below unsure. But I don't like how quickly he compromised and voted goodmrning rather than mala.

[fferyllt]

3. Nope you cannot excuse yourself like this. If you aren't interested in the game anymore then why are you posting longer texts today. Did you suddenly find the setup interesting ? Did your hell suddenly become heaven ? You are contradicting yourself here : Either you don't like the game anymore, you stopped caring and then you cannot explain the sudden regain of activity and the different pla. Or you still like the game but you have no valid excuses for lurking yesterday and you are lying. Both cases are not in your favor.

I can, actually. Exams are over as of yesterday, and me being lynched today means town most likely loses. It is thus in town's best interest for me to step it up and defend myself.

4. I am not stereotyping your playstyle but your personality in order to draw potential motives. You could say that's arrogant of me and un-necessary but amusing ? I guess we have different kind of humor. Still I would appreciate if you used convincing arguments instead of mockery and sarcasm.

Irony. I will if you will.

5. DCLXVI could be your partner because you voted within a few minutes of each other. I see your scumteam as an satisfactory explanation of yesterday's events. And before you ask, it makes sense for the SK to kill one of the very suspicious quick-lyncher from Svenskt wagon. With a weakened town, the anti-town factions are seeing each other as bigger threat than townies.

I wasn't going to ask. We already know you're the SK. Besides which your posit that DCL and I are the scumteam rests on the assumption that both DCL and I are ballsy enough to quickhammer a claimed PR which I at least wouldn't do as scum (go read my scum meta if you don't believe me).

It's possible that DCL was scum though(very possible, now I think on it)

.

if DCL is scum, then who would you think is his partner?

[fferyllt]

Oh come on, fery. Think about it. I threw that huge case about Mala out there, in which I have Mala/GM as the scumteam and Oto as the SK. Mala's not going to vote for herself, GM isn't going to bus unless she has to and Bulba didn't buy the case. There is no way to lynch Mala under those circumstances so I'm not going to waste my breath trying.

At the time you made the case, I was willing to consider a Mala lynch. not so much now.

I have too many reads that are town or close to town, which leads me to think that we're not looking for two scum plus SK any more.

If I ever sign up for another no-reveal game somebody plz kick me.

[fferyllt]

Neither have I.