Open 507: The Case of the Hard Boiled Egg (Game Over, 6/13)

[oriole]

Oh, hi mnemonic!

VOTE: mnemonic

[oriole]

no was just explaining the avi

however I am keeping an eye on the wagon since it is moving rather quickly with no real case...

Don't most RVS wagons have no real case and move rather quickly?

[oriole]

Hey Amrun, is it this?

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=17821

I found it looking through the Hard Boiled wiki page, but it had a different variant.

[oriole]

UNVOTE:

I'm just not ready for this level of commitment to you, Twin Flames. Maybe once we get to know each other. Too soon.

A three-vote RVS wagon is enough to make you nervous enough to unvote?
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Rank

Sheeping this.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Rank

Yeah I actually think Hoopla broke the game which is why it was changed to 13 players. Still need to look into the actual plan to see if it's still viable. I actually didn't realize it changed, or didnt remember -- I think that was the last hard boiled I played.

The problem with the old hard boiled setup was that there were too many unique roles to a small ratio of players. Now we will start out with a pool of two confirmed town (hider and psychologist/detective), and then there's a three person lynch pool that the vig will not shoot, then there's a group of 8 people that the vig shoots from, 1 being vig, 3 being mafia, meaning vig has a 7 person pool to shoot from. Hider can confirm town from that pool, but dies behind vig. Psychologist/detective can get guilties from that pool, although psychologist gets more effective guilties.

So in this scenario, the hider would have a 50/50 shot of survival (3 mafia + vig vs. 4 townies). Is that worth losing a confirmed town v. the hider not submitting a night action? Worst case scenario, both confirmed town are dead after Night 1, and there's a 3 v. 6 Day 2.

[oriole]

Oriole, why'd you sheep that vote?

Unvote seemed odd, and Rank didn't place a vote elsewhere. I think he's the only person not voting.

re: Setup theory:

I think Tracker is a better choice than vig, because it can track the hider to find a scum if the hider dies. Also, it doesn't mess with the det/psych investigation. If we're doing any claiming, I agree with only outing the Hider. We can't do the out everyone besides the vig strategy because it would only out one extra power role, which would be the NK Night 1.

[oriole]

So in this scenario, the hider would have a 50/50 shot of survival (3 mafia + vig vs. 4 townies). Is that worth losing a confirmed town v. the hider not submitting a night action? Worst case scenario, both confirmed town are dead after Night 1, and there's a 3 v. 6 Day 2.

Hider could also target the towniest from the three person lynch pool; a player who was getting a lot of suspicion the day before could volunteer to replace him.

I'd assume it'd work out as:

{det/psych, hider}, {3 VT}, {4 VT, Vig, 3 Maf}, and if the hider clears someone in the lynching pool, the next day would be

{hider, confirmed townie}, {3 VT (one replaced from vig pool)}, {2 VT, Vig, 3 Maf} assuming a VT vigged. Does this work out, if the hider keeps confirming out of the lynch pool?

[oriole]

Oh, forgot about the lynch. In that case, it would be at the start of the second day

{hider, confirmed townie}, {VT}, {3 VT, vig, 3 maf}.

Where would we go from here?

[oriole]

But does that work better than just having a tracker? It looks like only having the hider out themselves is common in both.

[oriole]

No, it's none of those reasons. I find it strange how actively he is undermining anyone -- just in general -- from having a town read on me while he doesn't have a read himself. If he had a scum read on me, that would be a different story.

Why is he so worried I MIGHT get town cred from MYSTERY PEOPLE (for something that is not alignment relevant anyway) if he has no read on me of his own?

That's not a town mindset.

Stuff giving Amrun a town read based on the setup discussion, I'll give Amrun a town read for posts like this.

[oriole]

So is it an OMGUS vote?

Is this how you interpret Amrun's vote, Lucky?

[oriole]

So is it an OMGUS vote?

Is this how you interpret Amrun's vote, Lucky?

I was asking because he just said it wasn't RVS anymore, but didn't say why so I wanted to know why.

And that was like, your legit guess as to why?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Lucky

[oriole]

I don't like a few of the votes on Bert, they seem awfully opportunistic.

Here let me predict your next post "I've still contributed more than you!" Oh hot damn bert! You're right! Someone lynch me quick!

So hello everyone else! I look forward to drawing your suspicion and getting lynched on day 3.

Is this whole joking about getting lynched thing going to be a continuing thing, Lucky?

[oriole]

I'd rather die right than die appeasing you taskmaster. How many votes I got left because I think I'm near death.

Easy there with the dramatics. I believe you're at L-2 after a look back.

Really people, one head on the hydra has been posting and you're all deciding he's scum for cockamamey bs >.>

Why can't you? I don't like Bert's wagon, and think things have been overblown, but Bert is a player just like everyone else. If people think that they can get better reads off of Nacho and Syry that's fine, but we shouldn't discount peoples' reads on Bert just because he's the only head posting.

[oriole]

That didn't come out well. What I meant was that there are much better defenses for Bert than "He's part of a hydra and the other heads haven't posted yet."

[oriole]

Semi V/LA until May 7. I'm going to be relegated to just my phone while I visit family. Hopefully, it won't impact posting at all and won't be noticed.

[oriole]

Really people, one head on the hydra has been posting and you're all deciding he's scum for cockamamey bs >.>

Why can't you? I don't like Bert's wagon, and think things have been overblown, but Bert is a player just like everyone else. If people think that they can get better reads off of Nacho and Syry that's fine, but we shouldn't discount peoples' reads on Bert just because he's the only head posting.

Do you think anyone has good reason on voting Bert, because I don't

No, I think this whole thing is blowing things out of proportion, and I'm not a fan of how mnemonic and Lucky hopped on the wagon.

[oriole]

oriole: leaning town, has been appropriately curious and paranoid.

What is appropriately curious and paranoid supposed to mean?

For Twin Flames, you said you can't find anything scummy, but said null. Can you not find anything townie either?

@mnemonic: In the Bert vote, you called your claim that Bert was calling Amrun scummy a "fact". It kind of bothers me, and your catch-up post seemed like agreeing with some common consensus outside of that and a vote on a growing bandwagon. I feel like the opinions expressed in your last post were rather conservative and "safe". What do you make of the last couple of pages (Fuzzy, Bert, Lucky?)

[oriole]

@Mod: Can we have a prod on Rank? It's been 3 days.

He's posted elsewhere, too. He still needs to explain his unvote in 24.

He'll get one more day at 8:12 am tomorrow to make it to 72 hours; weekends only count as 24 hours
- Mod

[oriole]

That didn't work. Post 24 is the one he needs to explain.

[oriole]

No, I think mnemonic's post was safe.

[oriole]

Mnemonic, you may want to rethink some of those reads. I'm pretty sure Lucky's not bussing his entire team.

[oriole]

I don't think his argument with Bert looks like bussing.

[oriole]

Oh hey! Rank came back!

What exactly are you arguing fuzzy? Oriole says I'm not bussing and you think I'm scum, so are you trying to convince him that yes I am indeed bussing YOU and bert?

I wasn't arguing anything. I see that a lot on this site. It often leads to the downfall of a lot of potentially good players. "X wouldn't do this to Y." When in reality X WOULD do that to Y.

I don't see Bert/Lucky/Fuzzy as a scum team that's going to work here. Besides that it would mean every large non-RVS wagon was on scum, it would be mutual bussing in pretty much all directions. Sure, you guys could be doing that, but I don't consider it worth considering without a few flips.

[oriole]

That's not really a good reason to be suspicious of someone.

[oriole]

Lucky, why don't you have a vote out?

FOS: mnemonic

Just throwing that out there.

[oriole]

Do you think Bert is scum, then? If so, why is your vote not on him?

[oriole]

Meant July 7, sorry about that.

[oriole]

Sorry for my absence. To be perfectly honest I felt if I kept talking I'd lynch myself faster. Might as well get back into this. Now to return with the most scummy statement yet: I have no strong feelings of anyone really.

I think disappearing to not say anything to get yourself lynched is just as scummy as not having strong reads.

[oriole]

Now, the hider cleans town. We won't know who the hider was on. We cant track the hider. If the hider say who they're going to hide behind and they aren't scum, who will scum target?

Speaking of this, is there any reason for the hider not to claim? The tracker could track the hider.

[oriole]

Unvote:

Vote: Taskmaster

I like the noise Amrun is making. I'll back that wagon.

You know, generally when something is called noise that's not a good thing. I don't like this vote.

[oriole]

What about the OMGUS?

What does QTF mean?

Idk, I disagree with my other head but it's meh

in what way do you disagree with him?

^Second this.

[oriole]

Impossible this game, maybe. But not impossible day 1. Some games start at night.

What's the point of this? This game didn't start at night.

[oriole]

I thought the context of this game was implied.

[oriole]

Well, I thought it was a little strange you chose to go after that (which in this game is correct) first before addressing an accusation from Lucky.

[oriole]

There was that "I say similar things when I'm scum" part. You commented after you didn't care what he does as scum that you do as town.

Granted, that's a very weak accusation.

[oriole]

lol we're at L-2

That amuses me.

This makes me want to put you at L-1.

[oriole]

Why is it terrabad?

[oriole]

So you think the wagon is scum-driven? Is anyone scum on it outside of Amrun, whom you've named before?

[oriole]

It greatly saddens me that I only have one vote.

[oriole]

Goddamnit.

[oriole]

HIDERWEARETHEHIDER

Hider, we are the hider.

Guess where my vote is going Day 2?

[oriole]

VOTE: mnemonic

Well that was strange.

[oriole]

Mind giving me a reason for that vote Oriole?

Actually, why do you think I'm voting you?

[oriole]

Regardless, I still want mnemonic to answer. I am going somewhere with this (I think).

[oriole]

Oops, misread that. I do have a reason, but I'd like to hear why mnemonic thinks I'm voting him first.

[oriole]

Well, for one, you didn't like how I voted for Bert, and I haven't posted much. Aside from that, I don't know.

I voted you for a few reasons. You're right, you haven't posted much and I didn't like your vote on Bert.

However, I think your intent to hammer Taskmaster was worse, and there's another thing that's harder for me to explain.

I sort of feel like I son't see any genuine scumhunting coming from your slot, and you almost seem more... cautious? Closed?

I mean, your iso goes from this (Taskmaster = town)

Haven't posted in a while, hope that I will be able to post more frequenly this week. Currently my reads stand with town on everyone except:
Lucky, who gives me a slight scum read, mainly for his sarcasm seeming excessive.
Fuzzy, for him avoiding answering questions that Lucky posted.
Bert, for his posts that are unrelevant to the game, which I think is to try and clutter the fourm

to this (Taskmaster = scum?), with only one other (irrelevant) post in between.

I'll give him today to claim. After that my vote will be placed. I like how he quotes himself, without adding anything, and threatens us with scumpoints for joining the wagon.

Part of this is probably due to a lack of posting, but it still bothers me.

[oriole]

Colored-in vote count.

Current Vote Count:

7 to lynch

ac1983fan:
Amrun (1): [/color]

Taskmaster

Bertkerberos (1): mnemonicdevice
DrCirno:
fuzzybutternut (1):

Twin Flames

Kerberos:
Lazurial:

Lucky2u (2)

: Kerberos, oriole
mnemonicdevice (1): fuzzybutternut
oriole:
Rank:

Taskmaster (7)

: Amrun, Rank, Lazurial, ac1983fan, DrCirno.

Lucky2u

, Bertkerberos

Twin Flames

:

Unvote:

There's almost certainly scum on the wagon somewhere.

[oriole]

Gonna read through the posts, figure out whose scum before voting.

Mnemonic, where is this? (On another note, where is everyone?)

[oriole]

Question: Oreo, you say there's almost certainly scum on the wagon, but you're not voting anyone on the wagon. What gives?

I feel the chance of mnemonic being scum is currently higher than the individual probability of someone on the wagon being scum currently. Do you agree?

If I

had

to vote someone on the wagon, I might join Amrun's Rank wagon or vote acfan, but I'd like to see where this mnemonic wagon goes.

[oriole]

Slightly. Statistically, with three conf town on the wagon, scum must be on the wagon somewhere.

What 3 conftown on the wagon?

[oriole]

Unvote:

Vote: Taskmaster

I like the noise Amrun is making. I'll back that wagon.

You know, generally when something is called noise that's not a good thing. I don't like this vote.

The only reason you don't like that vote is because Laz used the word "noise"?

No, I didn't like the vote because I wanted the Lucky wagon to go through, and that vote was the 3rd on Taskmaster, nearly tying the wagons.

[oriole]

oriole: leaning town, has been appropriately curious and paranoid.

What is appropriately curious and paranoid supposed to mean?

For Twin Flames, you said you can't find anything scummy, but said null. Can you not find anything townie either?

@mnemonic: In the Bert vote, you called your claim that Bert was calling Amrun scummy a "fact". It kind of bothers me, and your catch-up post seemed like agreeing with some common consensus outside of that and a vote on a growing bandwagon. I feel like the opinions expressed in your last post were rather conservative and "safe". What do you make of the last couple of pages (Fuzzy, Bert, Lucky?)

No, I think mnemonic's post was safe.

Lucky, why don't you have a vote out?

FOS: mnemonic

Just throwing that out there.

Except I did bring it up at the time.
I'm torn though, because after the last couple of your posts I'm not as happy with my vote.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Rank

[oriole]

I see Oriole as town for ~reasons~ I am not inclined to share.

Oriole, how do you see her literally looking for reasons to omgus you as town? She was disappointed because she couldn't legitimize her omgus, but much worse is that she has exactly scum suspects.

Well, I can't really talk about it too much because [the game I want to refer to is ongoing], but I'm not sure if scum would be broadcasting a wish to OMGUS in thread (moreso than town)?

[oriole]

Oops, *exactly zero scum suspects.

And yes, I thought about that, but it's so strange that who can say? She doesn't seem to view it as a bad thing to say either way, so I don't think she'd avoid saying it. She explicitly went hunting for things in your iso to vote you for, couldn't find them, and then accused YOU of doing that when you obviously hadn't. She's trying to discredit you but can't find a good enough "reason" to call you scum. I can't see town doing that.

Yeah, the zero scum suspects is my main hang-up. I'll probably come back to the wagon if that doesn't change soon.

[oriole]

And what do you think should be used to scumhunt, if not past quotes?

Vote: Amrun

that hop REEKED.

So you disagree with this reasoning?

Oriole, how do you see her literally looking for reasons to omgus you as town? She was disappointed because she couldn't legitimize her omgus, but much worse is that she has exactly scum suspects.

Oops, *exactly zero scum suspects.

And yes, I thought about that, but it's so strange that who can say? She doesn't seem to view it as a bad thing to say either way, so I don't think she'd avoid saying it. She explicitly went hunting for things in your iso to vote you for, couldn't find them, and then accused YOU of doing that when you obviously hadn't. She's trying to discredit you but can't find a good enough "reason" to call you scum. I can't see town doing that.

What, then, do you make of mnemonic not having any suspects?

[oriole]

Rank - null (he has been very lurky but that's about it - the sample size is not sufficient)
Lazurial - leaning town
mnemonic - leaning scum

I don't understand why Nacho is voting for you, or why he is pressuring Lazurial to put a vote down.

Rank has the same number of posts as mnemonic.

[oriole]

That post (387) reads like coaching to me.

[oriole]

I wouldn't use join dates as an argument.

Other things I don't like about that post are that he answered a question meant for me and that he chastises mnemonic for saying he would re-read the thread and vote, instead of just re-reading the thread and voting, then proceeds to not vote in that post (despite calling mnemonic meh to mildly scummy).

I'm not going to be happy if someone is lynched outside of {mnemonic, Rank, ac1983fan}, really. Too bad they only have a combined 30 posts to look through.

[oriole]

Also oriole is just so town it's almost painful

I love you

We should hydra because we think alike

Sounds good.

Oriole, do you think rank and mnem work well as buddies?

Yes. Interestingly, one of the like 5 ISOs Rank actually did was mnemonic, generally commenting that there wasn't much to go on and called him null (paraphrasing here). I certainly think that that's a pretty good possibility, especially after how today opened.

[oriole]

The interaction doesn't seem like town/town, anyways.

[oriole]

Fuzzybutternut: Fuzzy has been pretty active in this game, but I'm not noticing much in the way of real in depth thought coming from a lot of his posts.  This might have to do with his posting style more than anything else though, so overall I'll call that bit null. However, I did not like his post 99 much.  It felt like an "I'm totally not worried about this, see everyone?" and it's more than a little scummy.

Oriole:  I agree with his earlier thoughts on overall strategy.  Post 194 also felt right to me.  Mildish townread.

Mnemonicdevice:  Not a whole lot to go on, here, but I don't see anything in his posts that I can attribute to potential scumminess.  I'm just going to call it null.

Lucky2u: Your posting style seems largely reactionary, which I typically do not attribute to town play. You didn't really bring much to the table in terms of content until heat started coming your way. In post 159 it seems like you are really just trying to divert attention from yourself by pointing at everyone else. It just came off as scummy to me. I would've taken the list of reads a lot more seriously before you had heat on you. Again, it felt reactionary.

Twin Flames:

ehh NS is a mega lurker and I tend to be lynchbait. So we are kinda used to peeps seeing us as having bad juju. My focus though is on pegging everyone else to catch scumz.

The whole "people normally think I'm scum, so pay no mind to that" thing is, umm, sort of scummy for me. I really don't like that. In combination with somewhat minimal content, I'm putting Twin Flames in the ever-so-mildly scummy read column.

Going to get some food and compile a few more ISOs.

Just re-read this again. Bunch of hedging and mild reads.

[oriole]

Would rather lynch Rank today. That whole using past quotes is scummy thing is actually my reservation about lynching mnemonic right now.

[oriole]

Just doesn't really sound like something scum would say, really.

[oriole]

Well, I'm kind of on the fence about it, really. I can't decide if it reminds me of something, or does the opposite.

Meanwhile, I'm more sure about Rank being scum.

@Nacho If you think Rank is scummy, join the Rank wagon?

[oriole]

Kerberos, who are your scumreads?

[oriole]

@Oriole: What's your read on me and Rank?

You are null-scum, while Rank needs rope.

@Kerberos: I'll be more specific, then. What is your read of me?

[oriole]

Shit I forgot I was playing in this game ;-;
need to catch up

Is this ever going to happen?

[oriole]

@Oriole: What's your read on me and Rank?

You are null-scum, while Rank needs rope.

@Kerberos: I'll be more specific, then. What is your read of me?

This head is pretty happy with her scum-read on you. The fact that you had to ask makes it a tad bit stronger because it looks like you care

ftr:
Mara: Scum
Mala: null-scum
Mollie:???

that's where you're at right now

I was asking because you've done more attacking of Lazurial than me today. Your Lazurial read is weaker than your read on me, then?

[oriole]

We are seeing this the exact opposite, nacho. I don't see a reason why as TOWN she wouldn't just omgus. I don't see the TOWN motivation for "wanting" to find someone scummy, especially when she has no reads.

Why her not realizing what she posted is bad says "town bumbling" as opposed to "scum bumbling," I really don't know. It's just "bumbling."

There's no town motivation behind it

, but I understand the thought process behind it. You want someone attacking you to be scum because when townies are attacking you, it means that your play isn't as bad.

And yes, nacho, I asked you to explain why that hop was scummy. But you haven't. Why not?

I don't like it because I don't like your reasoning for it;

you attack something that doesn't make sense and attribute it to scum motivation.

So it doesn't have a town or scum motivation, then?

The problem with Rank is that he is V/LA until the 22nd, which is pretty near our deadline. :/

I don't want to vote Rank if he won't be around to claim.

Deadline was extended, he should be around to claim.

@Nacho:

Probably Laz. Maybe Kerberos. More likely Laz.

Holy shit. You drew scum. Holy shit.

Explain?

[oriole]

How isn't oriole analyzing anything?

You've been really active defending me today. Like,

really

active about doing it. Why?

I said earlier there's almost definitely scum on the Taskmaster wagon (only other possibility is Kerb/mnemonic/fuzzy scum team).

That wagon was

Current Vote Count:

7 to lynch

[/color]

Taskmaster (7)

: Amrun, Rank, Lazurial, ac1983fan, DrCirno.

Lucky2u

, Bertkerberos

Unvote:

I have townreads on Amrun and DrCirno.

Only three people left on it are Rank, Laz, and ac1983fan. I don't know why Nacho has such a large townread on Laz, but until he answers my main suspects are Rank and acfan. I can't do anything about their activity level.

Mod: Prod ac1983fan (and possibly mnemonic)?

[oriole]

I'm a little suspicious of Bertkerberos. Nacho usually has highly accurate reads of me, but his hydra has me on his scum list. I'm fine with conversation that gets people talking and makes you comfortable, but I'd like to see some productivity.

I do not like Lazurial's 248. Specifically the reason he doesnt like Bert. Because he "read you wrong" he must be scum, right? Its like youre trying to make us think you're town because of that.

I actually liked it quite a bit. I've read him correctly in the games I've played with him in the past, and if he did finally roll scum this round, I'm not sure his first response would be "woah no way you always read me right" since that's a ballsy response for scum right out of the gate.

I got the impression here that Nacho was good at reading Lazurial.

[oriole]

Might be time to start consolidating votes.

[oriole]

He posted last page, he's on the fuzzy wagon.

[oriole]

Amrun, you like the Bert wagon or the fuzzy wagon more? They might be our only two choices for today.

[oriole]

So 2 of {Rural, fuzzy, acfan, mnemonic, Laz} would have to join the wagon before deadline...

[oriole]

Got to go out for the night. I'll vote as necessary to achieve a lynch and will be around at deadline tomorrow.

[oriole]

4-ish hours to deadline. Someone's got to hammer.

[oriole]

Well, damn. That vig rendered my scan pretty useless. I realized that no matter what result I got, the chance of the person I scanned being scum would go up.

At least I scanned acfan correctly.

Amrun, did you know I was a power role?

I see Oriole as town for ~reasons~ I am not inclined to share.

This made me think you did.

[oriole]

The reason I didn't crumb much is because I saw there was a vig. That meant that my scan of Lazurial that came up innocent made him slightly more likely to be scum to me. My thinking was I can't eliminate him as any of the three scum spots but I could eliminate him as vig.

I ended up sort of softly indicating my result on him anyways by deferring to Nacho, I think.

I was trying to scan people I thought couldn't be the vig. I thought the vig was DrCirno/Rural Juror, so at least I got that right.

I think I got townread too much, though. I was trying to play a bit more null-town and passively, but everyone town read me anyways, so... Oh well. I thought allowing Kerberos to go after me on Day 2 like that would get me through the night, but then again I suppose that wouldn't work if Kerberos was mafia.

[oriole]

Oriole, we should hydra because damn, were we in synch.

Yeah, sure.

That was fun.