NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[AngryPidgeon]

AP (me) will be V/LA until Friday for a self-imposed site break.

[mastin2]

Night Three's deadline is on Tuesday, July 9th, at 12:30 PM, which is in (expired on 2013-07-09 12:30:00).

Whoops. As it just so happens, I forgot that I have a doctor's appointment for today.

Deadline will still be on time, but day's opening will be a bit delayed. Sorry for the inconvenience.

[mastin2]

Massive apologies for the delay. I should have set the deadline for Monday where I could have started day (close to) on time. My appointment left me quite a bit late. Sorry.

<<< High spirits might not be in plentiful supply, but the citizens are determined not to let that get in their way. I mean, looking outside, it's such a lovely day and night. The weather's gorgeous, there's no clouds, the stars the moon the sun are all shining, and it looks like things will be nice and

*BAM*

...Nice and bright. Sure, there may be a lot of bad things going on, but life would recover sooner or later. There's plenty to look forward to! If they would survive, the citizens would have a lot left to thrive on. The violence in the streets might be insane, but not a challenge impossible to beat. They may be up against demons, and they're not exactly angels themselves, but surely, they can manage to win. They're all happy to

*BAM*

*ahem*

All happy to be a part of this lovely city.

Come daybreak, they knew there would be casualties, but they didn't expect what they were going to see. Dead in her house was the purest of them: she had been sweet, innocent, young, and perhaps naive, which would make the loss of their dear little angel all the more of a tragedy.

ArcAngel9

was not a threat, yet clearly her death was meant as a message.

At the other side of town, the next dead body is found next to his van:

Kublai Khan

has been shot. But...why the heck was he driving a van in the middle of the night? Looking inside reveals the contents of the van: it's clearly meant more as a party van, because there's a luxurious couch along with alcohol and several drugs. But wait...what else is there? Knockout gas? Restraints to tie people? Hmm, maybe looking at the couch closer to see what's on it would b--EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEWW, gross!

...NOBODY should have to see that. "Party Van" indeed. Just not the type of party half the members 'invited' to would enjoy.

...Despite the depravity present, searching for any connections to the mafia turns up nothing. No weapons, no notes. He was a harmless wisecracking guy who just so happened to have a dark side--which, given the nature of these findings, was probably meant to be used for good. >>>

ArcAngel9

,

Vanilla Townie

,

Killed Night Three

.

Kublai Khan

,

Town Jailkeeper

,

Killed Night Three

.

Day Four!

Deadline for Day Four is Wednesday, July 31st, at 12:30 PM, which is in (expired on 2013-07-31 12:30:00).
With

15

alive, it's

8

to lynch.

[ThAdmiral]

I shot bulbazak. Draw what conclusions from that you will.

[ThAdmiral]

According to mastin's flavour text I crept in to bulbazak's house and shot at a body in his bed, but it was dark so I couldn't be sure what I was shooting.

[Rena]

Ignore flavour text, it means nothing.

I targetted ThAd and received no result. I believe I may have been blocked or something because when I targetted Bacde on Night Two, I received a nobody targetted him result not no result.

[Human Destroyer]

VOTE: Bulbazak

Why did we lynch Slandaar while I was gone

whywhywhy

[Nero Cain]

VOTE: Bulbazak

Why did we lynch Slandaar while I was gone

whywhywhy

'cause you weren't here to help us.

Though I do blame myself a bit.

Also pissed at AK for tunneling on KK.

vote:Bulb

[Bacde]

What a surprise the town lynched someone I did not support the lynch of and they flipped town

Vote: Nachomamma8

I am willing to switch to bulb or AK

[Kublai Khan]

bah.

[PeregrineV]

Just back, will get back to this later.

[Bulbazak]

Bulbazak's Hierarchy of Reads (D4)

Town

Rena
ThAdmiral
Nachomamma8
PeregrineV
Cephrir
CrashTextDummy
Desperado

Null/Town (Actually, in this case, call it the "I don't care" pile)

Amethyst Kitty

Null

Human Destroyer

Null/Scum

Bacde
Ffullisade
Penguin_alien

Scum

Seanald
Nero Cain

Went through the ISO for Rena's slot, aside from a few scummy comments from Fuzzy and her panicking about her wagon, I still got a mostly town vibe from her. What especially helped was her paranoid reaction to Nacho upon replacing in, which I have a hard time seeing scum faking.

Going through HD's ISO just left me more confused. My reasons for thinking he might be scum are still there, but there are also several posts that work in his favor town-wise. It doesn't help that he really disappeared as a whole upon replacing his hydra. I'm really curious about his motivation and reasoning at this point, since he's keeping it really close to his chest. Hopefully I can have something more substantial by the end of the day.

Going to work through the null/scum list today. I think I can get them figured out before this cycle is finished.

Meanwhile...

Slandaar, why would we assume 8 scum?

No, I agree with Bulb here. I don't really buy Slandaar's excuse that "we should assume the maximum amount of scum" + Scumthez already speculated on there being "7-8 scum"

+ there's atleast one scum in the neighborhoods and Slandaar makes a good bet. CTD might be scum afterall. He's ignoring discussing his neighborhood big time.

vote:Slandaar

Khan
Slandaar

yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

How did you conclude that 1/3 is more likely than 1/4?

I might be wrong here...for some reason I had it in my head that scum were like 30ish% of a game.

Vote Nero Cain

I'll walk people through it if I have to, but I think it should be obvious.

[Bacde]

meh maybe I'll lynch nero

I'm surprised that you have me as scum for some reason which doesn't make much sense to me but whatever I'm really not worried about being lynched

[Cephrir]

Maybe we can try actually lynching scum today?

VOTE: Rena

[Bulbazak]

I'm surprised that you have me as scum for some reason which doesn't make much sense to me but whatever I'm really not worried about being lynched

I'm trying to figure you out. Your play is not the same as the town game I've seen. Also, I don't know whether your tunnel on Nacho is town or scum motivated.

[Desperado]

Walk me through it Bulb

[Bacde]

I'm surprised that you have me as scum for some reason which doesn't make much sense to me but whatever I'm really not worried about being lynched

I'm trying to figure you out. Your play is not the same as the town game I've seen. Also, I don't know whether your tunnel on Nacho is town or scum motivated.

Well nacho is scum so I'd say town motivated

Seriously, when Bacde has a better track record than nachomamma8 at finding scum in a game its time to start reconsidering your town-read on nacho

[Bulbazak]

Slandaar, why would we assume 8 scum?

Questions 8 scum in a 24 player game (i.e. the 33% scum scenario).

No, I agree with Bulb here. I don't really buy Slandaar's excuse that "we should assume the maximum amount of scum" + Scumthez already speculated on there being "7-8 scum"

Again questions Slandaar's 33% claim. He also throws in something Thez said (something I had forgot about to be honest) to increase suspicion on Slandaar.

+ there's atleast one scum in the neighborhoods and Slandaar makes a good bet. CTD might be scum afterall. He's ignoring discussing his neighborhood big time.

He uses the neighborhood spec to implicate CTD as scum should Slandaar flip town. This is essentially setting up lynches.

yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

Here he completely reverses his opinion on the number of scum in the game, probably due to the fact that he was being questioned about it by CTD.

yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

How did you conclude that 1/3 is more likely than 1/4?

I might be wrong here...for some reason I had it in my head that scum were like 30ish% of a game.

He continues to backpedal after you question him on it further, going "Well, I may be wrong...". Essentially, when questioned, he avoided taking a strong stance on the main reason he was lynching Slandaar! Which begs the question, if he really didn't feel strongly about his reasons for being on the wagon, why was he on the wagon in the first place?

P-edit: Bacde, that's a 7for7 fallacy. That does not mean that you're town and Nacho's scum, especially when we're in multiball.

[Bacde]

P-edit: Bacde, that's a 7for7 fallacy. That does not mean that you're town and Nacho's scum, especially when we're in multiball.

Just because its a "logical fallacy" (emphasis on quotation marks because it technically can be construed as a fallacy) doesn't make it not true

Just because you can say "thats technically a fallacy" doesn't make my argument incorrect, and it definitely doesn't make you look town

Guess what--not all of my reasoning is founded in "strictly nonfallacious logic", and I still catch scum with it

I caught the shit out of thezmon

And I've caught nacho. He's scum.

[Bacde]

Seriously, when Bacde has a better track record than nachomamma8 at finding scum in a game its time to start reconsidering your town-read on nacho

Notice how the post never says "nacho is definitely scum because Bacde has caught more scum than nacho"

So I didn't even make a 7for7 fallacy

All I'm doing is pointing out that you should consider POSSIBLY reconsidering your read on nacho

I'd say its a pretty strong argument for reconsidering your town read on nacho

[Bacde]

I never made the argument that I am town BECAUSE I caught scum

or that Nacho is scum BECAUSE he hasn't

But we KNOW that someone here is scum, and I don't understand why you think its SO UNLIKELY to be nacho

[Bacde]

Seriously I get really annoyed when I invest part of my emotionality into a post and all I get are responses like "logical fallacy" or "AtE"

Its like, did you seriously respond to me with THAT LITTLE effort and just completely ignore the SUBSTANCE behind my post?

[ffullisade]

Simplified Slandaar case:

1.) He has been doing very little scumhunting in thread. CTD says he's been doing a lot in their QT, but that still does not excuse the lack of scumhunting in the actual thread.

2.) His biggest case, which was on PV, was actually originally a case against ThAd using PV's predecessor. When it was pointed out that DLG was not ThAd's slot, Slandaar's reaction was, "Case still applies.". After the ThAd wagon fell through, he then turns around and uses the same case against PV. That's not scumhunting. That's being lazy and trying to get a lynch at all costs.

3.) He slipped and revealed that there were actually 2 teams of 4 scum in this game, rather than 2 teams of 3 scum, as everyone else was supposing. If Slandaar had come to this conclusion naturally, as others had suggested, do you not think that he would have brought it up beforehand, say when Bacde was going on about lynching the last blue scum?

4.) His reasons for thinking so are completely false. He first said that it was because he had PV and Desp. as part of the blue scum team, ignoring how such a suggestion would be unbalanced given the setup and the amount of neighborhoods. He then said that he just had a lot of scum reads, and therefore came to the conclusion of 8 scum. However, wouldn't town in that situation think, "I have too many scumreads. Some of them might be wrong." instead of "I have too many scum reads. There must be more scum in the game."?

5.) When I confronted him about him not scumhunting and pushing his scumreads, he responded with "I can't make people do anything.". This is hypocritical, since he has been trying to call me scum for saying similar things all game.

6.) After I called him out on the neighborhood lie, he then misrepped my argument and tried to paint it as me saying it was unfair, rather than unbalanced. It doesn't matter than I never talked about the fairness of it at all, he still pushed it, and was able to build up my wagon on it. Again,

it was a misrep as an attempt to get me lynched

, and it is scummy.

Hi bulba. fery here. Has this case turning out to be on a town player caused you to rethink anything about the game? If so, what?

[Bulbazak]

Hi bulba. fery here. Has this case turning out to be on a town player caused you to rethink anything about the game? If so, what?

Two things:

1.) I should really stay away from setup spec. I tend to suck at it. (Doesn't stop me from trying unfortunately. )

2.) My reads are probably askew somewhere. I'm not sure what to think about you and Bacde anymore, especially after your posts at the end of d3. I was getting some genuine emotion from you. Same goes for HD, who, after going through his ISO, still confuses me when it comes to the intent behind his actions. AK essentially sucker punched me yesterday, so I'm not quite sure where I stand on her. I suspect that she's town, but I'm not sure whether I really care if she lives or dies at this point. I'm just going to leave her alone. Finally, Slandaar's flip has made me really paranoid about CTD. He still reads town to me, but he's not as strong of a townread as he used to be. I still have 2 strong scum reads, which I still trust. However, if I end up being wrong about them, then town might as well put me out of my misery, because I am obviously no use to them.

@Bacde: I still have Nacho as a strong townread, especially after the way he stepped in at the end of the day yesterday. Scum could have just hung back and coasted, but Nacho chose to stick up for his townreads. I just can't see scum doing that.

[ffullisade]

Hi bulba. fery here. Has this case turning out to be on a town player caused you to rethink anything about the game? If so, what?

Two things:

1.) I should really stay away from setup spec. I tend to suck at it. (Doesn't stop me from trying unfortunately. )

2.) My reads are probably askew somewhere. I'm not sure what to think about you and Bacde anymore, especially after your posts at the end of d3. I was getting some genuine emotion from you. Same goes for HD, who, after going through his ISO, still confuses me when it comes to the intent behind his actions. AK essentially sucker punched me yesterday, so I'm not quite sure where I stand on her. I suspect that she's town, but I'm not sure whether I really care if she lives or dies at this point. I'm just going to leave her alone. Finally, Slandaar's flip has made me really paranoid about CTD. He still reads town to me, but he's not as strong of a townread as he used to be. I still have 2 strong scum reads, which I still trust. However, if I end up being wrong about them, then town might as well put me out of my misery, because I am obviously no use to them.

@Bacde: I still have Nacho as a strong townread, especially after the way he stepped in at the end of the day yesterday. Scum could have just hung back and coasted, but Nacho chose to stick up for his townreads. I just can't see scum doing that.

There's a rigidity to your reads list that is kind of worrisome. When I saw your list first thing today after your case on Slaandar turned out so wrong I really wasn't sure what to make of it not changing much (if at all).

I'm not sure if "you" means "you the hydra" or "you fferyllt" re genuine emotion. My contribution to the ffullisade gestalt has been pretty filtered due to the huge mountain of day 1 posts that I'll never fully explore or grasp the way someone reading the thread in real time has. Neither of us were happy with the lynch, but the town read was primarily Mollie's because she's played with him before.