Ok my other game finally went to night 1 after 2700 posts or some shit. I think that game is pretty much won, so this is my primary game now.
I am a bad lynch because I am town, and I can contribute later in the game. I have good reads and evidence when there is more content to to analyze later in the game, and I'm an easy read once I give out all my information, which I will.
@mod I didn't have my vote on anyone in that last vote count, I unvoted myself.
I think Radioactive is mafia, I haven't decided on Feel it, EPM, and Radiant. Feelit seems to be the least useful player so I would be ok with that D-1 lynch.
The people like n64lord who are lurking are not making me think town at all, just coasting.
sthar feels town, as does jon.
So Radioactive has done this to make me think mafia.
1. He doesn't seem to find sthar's posting productive and always negatively responds to his analysis.
2. He defends 2 people who everyone else is trying to pressure, pretty much derailing both of those wagons.
In post 252, Lucky2u wrote:Someone also asked me about Radiant. He was playing like his normal town, but he is starting to get a bit more unhinged and hostile than before. I am beginning to wonder if it might be the stress of being scum or he is just less reserved now (we played in a newbie game, so he might have held back due to inexperience on site)
In post 252, Lucky2u wrote:Concerning the question by Radioactive: I've actually changed my mind about that. At the time I was basing it off that Radioactive came into the game with a light accusation of EPM and I don't think a scum team would start that way.But you haven't really made your feelings of EPM known lately since you are kind of ignoring his wagon. In other words, I spoke way too soon, you could totally be a team.
That didn't answer the question.
I'm not voting the EPM wagon, and I called him town in post 168 so I would think that it would stand to reason that I don't support an EPM wagon. Your accusation that my read on EPM is unknown is just blatantly false.
3. He didn't respond to my accusation he lied to give a vote to sthar8, who I see as town.
Basically everything he has posted I can't agree with, when things don't seem logical to me I start to think he has other motivations for posting and voting as he has.
But I also don't think FeelIt has any intention of contributing so.
About half way through reading the thread, wanted to respond to the below because I really really disagree with it:
In post 59, sthar8 wrote:For the record, I don't believe in outing town tells. They're meaningless if the player is aware of them, and outing them gives scum information on how to manipulate you. We can discuss them when they become relevant, but saying "X looks townie to me" is fairly useless at best and buddying scum at worst.
Outing town reads and town tells is actually massively beneficial for a lot of reasons 1) It allows you to assess the persons thought process giving the read and therefore get a better read on them from it. 2) It allows you to properly understand others conclusions on players and therefore allow you to step back and evaluate your read on the player they have a town read on potentially changing your read. 3) It allows for there to be more cohesiveness inside the thread which makes narrowing down a pool of people that the mafia are likely in easier and 4) It allows thoughts to be left behind in case you get nightkilled, for instance if I get nightkilled I want to know for a fact that I've left behind all my thoughts and reads so that even when dead I can have an impact on the game and people can go back see and hopefully trust my town reads increasing the odds of lynching mafia.
Alright, finished reading through. I have strong town reads on Sthar(1), Radiant(2), Jon(3), EPM(4) and the AJ/JJ slot(5).
(1): I never understood the scum reads on him, it seemed more like a disagreement with theory and playstyle he uses rather than actually thinking he was scummy. I think his PBPA on EPM is very wrong but the thought process comes across as natural as does the whole "I don't care if the wagons on me, at least we have a wagon to analyze" type attitude. I do have a few little harboring doubts but I'm shrugging them of.
(2): I don't think scum would enter the thread with the whole "Oh I'm the jester, read my role PM" ploy whatsoever since it draws attention towards them but doing it as town to attempt to garner reactions to get a read from makes a lot of sense. I also think his constant vote shifts matches with confused town rather than opportunistic scum and there's really no care about the image he's giving of at all that I think scum would have.
(3): The whole "I'm a deer in headlights" and the "doubting all my scum reads because they're too scummy" reads insanely genuine. I can follow his thought process a lot and the scumhunting reads legitimate. I'm going to feel like an idiot if this read is wrong because I'm very very confident in it.
(4): This is partially meta based, I've seen EPM in a few games and as town he's a bigger 'personality' so to speak as in he's not afraid to state his thoughts of people and opinions without caring too much about the consequences. The whole "I don't like votes being placed on the lead wagons" isn't something I think he'd come out and state as scum while not having town reads on all of the players. Also him doing meta research to find out Devices confirmation voting thing being a null tell reads very town, mafia generally don't waste time doing meta research.
(5): I think JJ's "how many scum are usually in this setup" is natural which means no inside information which means it's a town-slip, I also think his frustration is genuine and can follow his thought process a lot. And weirdly enough I think AJ not realizing that he replaced into JJ's slot is a big town tell, as scum I think he'd instantly have looked at his predecessors and partners play and therefore not said that he FoS's that slot.
I'm going to take a break, then I'll get through my thoughts on everyone else.
I have weaker town reads on Themoaner(6) and Flench (7). I haven't much of a clue / am very conflicted about N64(8) and Mnemonic(9).
(6): This is a weaker read because I'm not entirely sure how to explain it which makes me worry it's gut based and I'm not a big fan of putting a lot of trust into my gut reads based or met reads. The only way I can really explain what I'm seeing here is that his reads, vote changes and content all read as natural to me. Blah. I guess it is partially gut based.
(7): I think his whole reads list on everyone read natural, especially liked the "Idk, I can't decide if it's genuine" type read that he has on Lucky and the "understand his reasoning which is important" on Jon, both don't seem contrived at all. The selfvote makes a lot of sense as frustrated town and his read on Radioactive is rather decent. Only thing stopping him from being in the strong town pile really is that I didn't like his Radiant or JJ vote earlier at all.
(8): A lot of the problem I'm having here is playstyle based I think because I'm having severe problems understanding his posts (I really hope I'm not the only one here that's not able to do it), his "we should focus on lurkers" type post early on doesn't match with his own activity level but I think that's due to him being V/LA so it's probably not a scum-tell. I do like his reasoning for his Feel scum read but gah I'm struggling reading him.
(9): I found his "Anyone want to help me quicklynching the scum" to be a slight town tell and think the admittance of OMGUSing is more likely to come from town but don't like his vote on Flench, reads as opportunistic. Really there's a severe lack of content to get a solid read on him from.
I have varying degrees of scum reads on Radioactive(10), Feel It(11) and Lucky(12).
(10): First of, a few of my town reads seem to have him as town from memory so can they explain to me what I'm misreading here please? I thought the drop in vote on Feel It and explanation alongside with Feels reaction actually reads as scum distancing with partner (And I know don't try and catch two scum until we get one flip but I'd rather point it out so if someone thinks I'm blatantly wrong about it they can point it out to me before I get confirmation biased about it) and I really hated calling EPM scum, not voting him, then retracting the scum read to sheep him, felt very opportunistic as does the Flench vote really though the largest problem is that I'm finding a large portion of his posts to contain very little scumhunting.
(11): He's active lurked throughout a large portion of the game, being here, following along but providing no real content or thoughts and the reads list of "JJ, you seem town to me, making content" reads as an attempt at appeasement rather than a legitimate read. The "I've lost tract of the game I'll do more tomorrow" seems to be essentially an attempt at begging for another day and the town read on Fletch that came out of nowhere with no reasoning attached reads as fake. This is probably my strongest scum read right now but I want to go over him again after I get some sleep to make sure I'm not already in a tunnel, consider me stating that this is where I'm likely to vote in 12 or so hours after some sleep though.
(12): I want to read some of his meta but don't have the time right now, I'll do this later because I'm finding his (Apologies if this is 'harsh') sheer uselessness scummy. I didn't like his reaction to Radiants gambit nor did I like his whole "I'll probably sheep you but I will keep an eye on you" and I really really didn't like the "Yet turning on me when we were both town is exactly what you did Judas" comment, read as an attempt at emotional manipulation but there's a lot of posts that show that he's read and up to date with the thread but have a real lack of analysis and like I said "useless", if I get time when I wake up I'll let you know what I find from his meta but lynch wise I prefer Feel It over him if they're the two likely lynches.
And with that night; I'll probably be unable to sleep though because I struggle getting scumhunting out of my head, bleh.
1. Do you not think that there is a huge amount of WIFOM in your read of Radiant? ("Scum wouldn't say <x> so by saying <x> I'll apear to be town")*
2. Have you read any of Jon's meta? I've played with him before and he is ALWAYS a deer in headlights, as you so eloquently put it.
3. When do you think EPM "Will get round to it"? (Post 327 for example) Do you not think he is trying to derail a Flench lynch?
4. Do you think AJ is reading the fucking thread?
5. Flench's case against Radioactive consists of "He changed his mind" yet you think this is a good case, please explain why in more detail.
6. Why do you not think Flench is actively lurking?
7. Do you think N64Lord's unreadability is deliberate?
I quite agree with the rest of your reads (except I'm more null-leaning-town on RWolf, I just see him as frustrated at the way this game is going). As for your scum reads, as I've already said. two of them have promised to post more tomorrow, this is testable. No change in quality/quantity = lynch.
Sorry to throw a lot of questions at you but they are needed.
*Radiant isn't scum she's a traitor.
If scum were aware that there's a traitor, claiming jester in the first day would be a pretty good way of claiming traitor.
I mean, there's virtually no way that scum are going to target me tonight. ^_-
It all depends whether you think I'm being genuine or am trying to act town by acting like I'm trying as hard as possible not to look like i'm trying to look town.
Hell, you could be scum who knows there's a traitor and are trying to find a way to probe me for whether or not I am the traitor based on my actions by pointedly bringing it up and seeing my reaction.
In post 101, RadiantCowbells wrote:...
This looks to me like Theo thought I was hiw traitor and was subtly fishing for me to say something to make it clearer to him.
I always assume the possibilty of there being a traitor in the game too.
In post 386, RadiantCowbells wrote:Hell, you could be scum who knows there's a traitor and are trying to find a way to probe me for whether or not I am the traitor based on my actions by pointedly bringing it up and seeing my reaction.
In post 382, theomoaner wrote:Have you read any of Jon's meta? I've played with him before and he is ALWAYS a deer in headlights, as you so eloquently put it.
In that, my first ever game of Mafia, Mrs. Blithe (scum) described me as obvious overeager newbie just come to Town!!! I was the highest count poster in that game. If I remember right, didn't I stop 4nxi3ty from screaming for your lynch. I think it was you. I told him you couldn't have been the last scum, because I'd jailed you that night. That game was a confidence builder for me, and I remember it fondly.
1. He doesn't seem to find sthar's posting productive and always negatively responds to his analysis.
2. He defends 2 people who everyone else is trying to pressure, pretty much derailing both of those wagons.
3. He didn't respond to my accusation he lied to give a vote to sthar8, who I see as town.
1. So, I have to agree with sthar, or I'm scum? OK...
2. Who are you talking about and what are you talking about? Yes, of course I'm defending EPM, he's a town read.
3. No, I didn't respond to it. Twoother people did. And if you read either of those posts I linked, you know why your accusation is just dead wrong.
How you have people defending you absolutely boggles my mind.
1. He doesn't seem to find sthar's posting productive and always negatively responds to his analysis.
2. He defends 2 people who everyone else is trying to pressure, pretty much derailing both of those wagons.
3. He didn't respond to my accusation he lied to give a vote to sthar8, who I see as town.
1. So, I have to agree with sthar, or I'm scum? OK...
2. Who are you talking about and what are you talking about? Yes, of course I'm defending EPM, he's a town read.
3. No, I didn't respond to it. Twoother people did. And if you read either of those posts I linked, you know why your accusation is just dead wrong.
How you have people defending you absolutely boggles my mind.
Do you just randomly pick a person at the beginning of the game and act like everything they do is scummy and retarded? Good play.
For number two, I quoted the posts I was referencing where you defended Radiant and EPM. I am sorry you are not a strong reader, this game must be tough.
In post 391, Flench wrote:Do you just randomly pick a person at the beginning of the game and act like everything they do is scummy and retarded? Good play.
Where did I say sthar was retarded? And I don't think he's scum still.
What are you talking about?
For number two, I quoted the posts I was referencing where you defended Radiant and EPM. I am sorry you are not a strong reader, this game must be tough.
I said he wasn't "unhinged" and that qualifies as "derailing a wagon"? In which universe does that make sense?
Yeah, you keep talking down to me while you dig that hole deeper and deeper.
Ah. On the replacement queue, Tybalt was listed first, so I assumed I had replaced him. I had a case written up from this morning that I didn't get to finish due to my work shift. I'll complete it here after catching up.
In post 391, Flench wrote:Do you just randomly pick a person at the beginning of the game and act like everything they do is scummy and retarded? Good play.
Where did I say sthar was retarded? And I don't think he's scum still.
What are you talking about?
For number two, I quoted the posts I was referencing where you defended Radiant and EPM. I am sorry you are not a strong reader, this game must be tough.
I said he wasn't "unhinged" and that qualifies as "derailing a wagon"? In which universe does that make sense?
Yeah, you keep talking down to me while you dig that hole deeper and deeper.
Well this just proves what I said, I was saying you were acting like I (not sthar) was retarded and scummy. Then you pretend not to understand me yet again and act like I'm a retarded and scummy.
Or maybe you actually just can't understand things unless they are explicitly spelled out. In that case, sorry for confusing you, I'll take special care to be clear with you when responding to you from now on.
Yea people were pressuring him and you were defending him, I didn't agree with that post, that is what it is.
Alright, let's start the explanation.The first help to this will be the best piece of information posted so far this game: Desperado's voting records. While I don't use voting records as a general basis for case, this is good solid evidence and has been recorded perfectly for us. Let's look at some that stick out.
theomoaner: mnemonicdevice > RadiantCowbells > Feel It > Flench
evilpacman18: sthar8 > Unvote
Alrighty. Red is bad, green is good. Red has two reasons for bad: Inconsistency or tunneling. Of course, RC is the definition of inconsistent here. But Flench, on the other hand, has been incredibly consistent. Consistency is a major town tell, almost incredibly overlooked. Tunneling is a lot more problematic because there really is no consistency to look for at all. EPM, Jon (to an extent, just not having voted much) and especially mnemonicdevice are all subject to tunneling. The worst offender is by far device who was on RC for almost 9/10 of this game so far. (I'm overlooking impertus because Tybalt wasn't around much.)
Now, for the reasons I wanted my answers before continuing.
Theomoaner is NOT a fan of policy lynches. This, however, drives inconsistency with his vote to RC.
Looks like an attempt to play a gambit to me. Also, as a proven liar I think the pricipal of Lynch all Liars needs to be applied here.
Invoking it. Quite easily on a role that is never in a normal game and was obviously a joke. Really, even when he called it a 'scum gambit' he never explained his thinking. This is something I've been wondering about for a while, especially when sathar started pulling up a policy lynch on lurkers.
See, he DID eventually come around and say that the lurker discussion was the wrong way to go (and trust me, it was) but he's really, really late to do so, he's way after the fact. So, while I give him some towncred for at least trying, he's way too late to pointing this out.
Also, he's a little easy to tick off on topics that he has no buisness being ticked off at.
This is weird. Not to mention the 102 was actually increased emphasis to show anger. Feels fake.
(And yes, now that I know I'm JJcool's replacement over Tybalts, the fact that JJ tried to translate Theomoaner can't mean much to me in a theomoaner case.)
Now. Let's clear some town reads. Flench, Radiant Cowbells (hi slimer alt), Impetus (Who's your main acc, btw?) sthar and most likely Jon. (This is jon, boys and girls, get used to him. He'll stay a while).
Who's scum? My guess is Lucky2u is secured, mega, ultra scum (And hence my vote by the end after probably putting together a case.
Theomoaner, for now. I feel that he's been picking easy targets (hence his first two votes) and he's contradicting himself here and there (enough that I've caught a few).
Either N64 or Radioactive wolf. Not ready to make a complete scum call on either, but both are scummy. (radioactive, any chance you want to tell us your alt or is this secret info? You kind of remind me of thestatusquo)
Spoiler:
In post 191, Lucky2u wrote:Personally I am a fan of a EPM or Radioactive wagon today. I don't think they are a team but I'm pretty sure one of them is scum. I don't have history with Radioactive but I have a history of playing with semi hostile players that always end up being scum. EPM... he's just bad.
He has two scum tells, but doesn't think they're a team. His justification? RW is hostile, EPM is bad. Awful reasoning
In post 215, Lucky2u wrote:I'm going with EPM for day 1 lynch. Sthar makes alot of good cases.
Follow the leader sheep.
In post 229, Lucky2u wrote:Jon, I'm not going to jump on you for this because it's an honest mistake. Radioactive (Wolf) and Radiant (Cowbells, also known as Judas) are two different people in this game. I have no history with the wolf. I have a history with the betrayer of Christ.
Why would Jon's mistake even be something to jump on? It's not that bad, even hints that he doesn't have either in his qt should he be scum.
In post 353, Lucky2u wrote:That said we are nearing the deadline so let's make this a two pony show and all throw down votes?
Awful. Wants to narrow the lynching field to two. First off, that's not smart to ever have dueling wagons, scum just shifts over the majority and town inevitably loses. Secondly, he's assuming one or possibly none are scum and just seems to focus on the lynch factor. Still playing self-admitted sheep. Doesn't save you from my vote.
And fluff. All kinds of fluff, enough to start a cotton candy stand. Here's your sign (And vote)
I don't really care about most of your arguments, cause they have a basis in good theory. However your rational against my calling for a two wagon race is flawed. First, look at the vote count and deadline. We are far from a consensus and at this rate will end up with a no lynch. That is worse than a mislynch because it tells us little to nothing. I'm fine with being one of the wagons, because at least it would get us somewhere. Only scum wants a no lynch, are you scum? No? Then vote and commit.
VOTE: lucky2u
Here is wagon 1, Flench has the most votes so he would be best candidate for second wagon. Less than 24 hours, me or Flench. Go.
The bunny knight reigns supreme!
Get to know me! Here! and now Here too!
I've been trying to read and catch but this game is a clusterfuck.
RadiantCowbells- Town, been drawing lots of attention to himself, and not the good kind either so if he's scum he is playing a good ruse.
RadioactiveWolf- Leaning scum, feels opportunistic like his wolfish name suggests and he picks on players that are are easy targets and avoids the ones who argue better. This seems like fake scumhunting to me and with the hope of getting a townie lynched.
Lucky2u- Null. His posts haven't really said much other than he thinks Radiant and EPM are his favored lynches. I'm torn between his self vote as a genuine town play at wanting a lynch before the deadline or a scumplay trying to fabricate said feeling.
AJ/JJ- Mostly null, hard to get a read with the replacement.
Flench- I was against lynching him at first due to him doing nothing to warrant it, felt like a collection of players bullying him but now my mind has changed, he self votes and then... removes it and changes his mind about wanting to die and then votes for the person he thinks is the most likely to get a lynch on (myself) erratic behavior.
jon_h61- Leaning town, has made fairly logical posts as are his choices for a lynch.
Impetus- Townish, I liked most of the logic behind his reads.
sthar8- Strong townread, has asked lots of questions, made lots of analysis and pressure based on logic. Some of his posts were a bitch to read through though.
evilpacman18- Null, mostly fluffy posts.
AJ The Epic- Townish, Made some good points on on the voting patterns of players, but I found his choice to vote for Lucky a bit odd. (not a scummish way)
mnemonicdevice- People have been right to criticize me for lurking, but where's the pressure here? He's been just as inactive. Null and give him the benefit of doubt that's he's been busy like me.
N64Lord- Just can't read him.
theomoaner- Nothing personal bro, but you were scummy at the beginning of the day and you're still scummy now. Your reaction to Radiant felt like a scum trying to build an easy wagon. Wants to lynch me or Flench for low activity while posting high levels of fluff himself. Changes his vote over to Flench when I look like a less likely possibility.
I'm keeping my vote where it has been for most of the day for now, but am willing to change my vote to another Flench if he's the only lynch we will get today. Sorry about being sidetracked I've mostly caught up now and will be posting more regularly.
