Micro 224: 2nd Chance Draw Mafia (A Winner Already?!)

[penguin_alien]

i think ac is town.Whatever he does is not going to change my opinion .

...so if he does something ridiculously scummy later, you'll still call him town? Why are you so absolute?

Do you think it's likely scum's going to come out of the gate calling someone unassailable town, especially in a game of this size? Because I don't think it's super-likely.

EBWOP: Of course it submits the message while I'm still typing....

I am L-2 in the first 3 posts. Not good.

Did you think you were actually going to get quicklynched, or is this an attempt to be too scummy to be scum? Do you think there was scum on your wagon at its peak?

ac1983fan, you say early L-2 wagons are good to gauge (over)reactions. So what do you think of Venrob's reaction?

[penguin_alien]

EBWOP: Of course it submits the message while I'm still typing....

I am L-2 in the first 3 posts. Not good.

Did you think you were actually going to get quicklynched, or is this an attempt to be too scummy to be scum? Do you think there was scum on your wagon at its peak?

ac1983fan, you say early L-2 wagons are good to gauge (over)reactions. So what do you think of Venrob's reaction?

Disappointing, he should have freaked out a bit more. People freaking out is the best way to leave RVS.

So what do you make of the fact that he didn't freak out and is analyzing his wagon instead?

Buffy vs Dracula, do you remember serrapaladin being more questioning than this...in the tail end of RVS? Or in general? And what do you think he'd be questioning?

[penguin_alien]

Kazekirimaru, why is expanding a dialogue to encompass ongoing game events scummy to you? serra and DV were going back and forth about other things; serra didn't stop talking about those things at all when he brought up the AC wagon. I don't see the avoidance you're painting this as.

[penguin_alien]

Also, Serra-- bad on you for saying there's a wagon on AC. I mean yeah he was at L-2 but my vote was RVS and Venrob's was... weird.

So the moment Serra points out the existence of an AC wagon, you move your vote off said wagon? Interesting.

--Buffy

Buffy, can you clarify this? First serra's wrong to say there's a wagon, then he's pointing out something you say does exist? Not sure if it's the hour, but I'm not getting these two statements together.

serra, I don't get your case on DV and vice versa. He's sheeping another player's observation, you're thinking he's not playing like he normally does from games you've observed. What am I missing?

[penguin_alien]

This may or may not be a prod dodge. Anyone wanna vote DV with me?

My vote is on DV atm.

Has your read on him progressed beyond 'gut' as stated in #55?

[penguin_alien]

DeasVail, if you're wrong about serrapaladin, who else do you find scummy right now? Same question to serrapaladin WRT DeasVail.

ac1983fan, you're relying on a gut read and one town game to read those two. You explicitly avoid calling Kazekirimaru town or scum here:

So the moment Serra points out the existence of an AC wagon, you move your vote off said wagon? Interesting.

--Buffy

I was waiting for someone to point that out. That is how it looks, isn't it? Luckily I don't care how it looks. ^^

I'm not sure if this is nervous scum trying too hard to look town or nervous town trying too hard to look town.

You're buddying up to serra here:

This may or may not be a prod dodge. Anyone wanna vote DV with me?

My vote is on DV atm.

You say your gut is telling you DV is scum. Can you point out any posts from him that give you that gut read, even if you can't explain why? Everything from you looks like scum play.

VOTE: ac1983fan

[penguin_alien]

I get the whole argument that don_johnson was putting on a show with his having left in the part about his slot being scummy. There's no town motivation there, except looking towny, and it does look lousy. But it seems more anti-town, in that it distracts from the rest of his posts, than it does outright scummy. I feel like the don_johnson I've played with elsewhere does tend to post in a slightly rambly style and doesn't worry overmuch about editing his posts. It doesn't seem lynch-worthy.

I'm also not loving the idea of a wagon started by ac1983fan. The part about relating this to a move ac1983fan made as scum in another game is OK, but this:

Oh, it could be either of those, frankly. Also the fact that the only thing that made me unvote Venrob was a single post which, in retrospect, doesn't ACTUALLY look that town.

And the last few sentences there seem pretty, passive aggressive? Idk dude, I'm just saying the reasons for my vote. I don't really care if you defend yourself or whatnot, unless there is an obvious logical flaw in my thought process.

Not interested in what your scum suspect has to say? Putting the burden of proof on DJ to disprove the argument, "I did this as scum, you must be scum for doing it too."? The whole thing comes off as you having found a lynch you can push from a defensible position.

aptil, you say he's so definitely scum. Do you actually think scum would forget who they're replacing in for? How about town? Do you have any experience with this happening to back this up? Because I'd say that when I replace into games as scum, the first thing I do is go through my predecessor's ISO to check if they've said anything that I now have to back up, like claims.

Viera Assassin, anything at all voteworthy to you? What's your take on DJ?

serra, DV: neither of you seems very invested in engaging the other. It makes it hard to think much of your suspicions. Can you both take a good look at ac1983fan? We're getting close to deadline, and I'd rather lynch him than DJ or Kaze (actually I won't lynch Kaze, he's not being scummy). You've both agreed that he's scummy; I don't want updated opinions to get rushed at deadline.

[penguin_alien]

You say your gut is telling you DV is scum. Can you point out any posts from him that give you that gut read, even if you can't explain why? Everything from you looks like scum play.

Something about his post 54 (the one right before I switched onto him) rings as not-town to me.

Dracula, I don't want to be too worried about people being scum when considering their arguments. I would also expect you not to make something up about serra being more questioning elsewhere because scum are generally too scared to do that kind of thing. If you have fooled me in that regard, however, then well done.

Also, this may seem random, but are you from PerC?

What I'm seeing in DV's post is that he's not going to dismiss an argument entirely just because it comes from a current scum suspect and that he doesn't expect people to lie when their falsehoods can be readily revealed. What pinged you as scummy there? At worst it's null to me.

DJ, I don't think I have a lot to counter a Kaze scum read. I thought his questioning of Venrob looked town, but then he started pushing on things I thought were towny of others, like aptil's strong town read or serra trying to expand his discussion with DV. Right now I'd prefer an ac1983fan lynch, but Kaze's play has made him no longer a town read.

[penguin_alien]

Whatever resulted in a kill-free night wasn't DJ blocking me, that I'm pretty sure of. Yes, I bugged VA out of the seeming blue. I was looking over recent vote counts and noticed a near-total lack of voting or commentary, not what I'd have expected from that (I think) alt.

If I didn't have a town read on DJ from yesterday I'd think he was a lyncher capitalizing on a lack of kills. As it stands, I think he's just wrong and something else resulted in no killing.

Why do you think fake claims are available? There is apparently a list of over 3000 possibilities; surely scum can pull from that and take the less than 1% chance of picking wrong, even discounting the scum roles they wouldn't claim?

[penguin_alien]

Sorry for the rollover game; I fell asleep last night before I could post. I don't think the town would have or should have been persuaded by anything I said, but I did at least intend to try a fake-claim off the list.

Nice game to everyone, particularly don_johnson and his mad roleblocking skills! Thanks to Cheery Dog for modding.