Stoofer's 3rd Law

[Adele]

I certainly agree that:
-> All roles (pretty much) have some cost.
-> They should also have a benefit.
-> But the benefit suffers from diminishing returns under Stoofer's law at a greater rate than the costs do.
-> Thus as amount and complexity of roles increases (complexity within roles also, such as a commuter has a greater effect here than a bulletproof), the town's power increases more slowly and may eventually be harmed.

I <3 Adele.

>.>
<.<

QFT



/flees

[ubertimmy]

Say a roleblocker uses his ability at random night zero. Let's also say that this is a 12 person mini game with more town power then average, with a cop, a doc, a vig, a roleblocker, with 3 person mafia, and a SK.

The vig probably shouldn't do anything night zero anyway, so if you block him, no big deal.

So there's a 1/12 chance you prevent the cop from one investigation, which stops the town from getting an investigation off, but also means that the cop can confirm your claim later if needed. Small - for the town.

There's a 1/12 chance of blocking the doc, but he's only got a 2/12 chance of stopping a kill night zero, so the odds of stopping a doc from saving someone is only 2/144. Not worth worrying about.

There's a 2/12 chance that you'll stop either a scum kill or a SK kill, and either way you both prevent a kill (more likely then not a kill on a good guy), and once you figure out that there's usually two kills, you also might have a pretty good idea you might have blocked a scum night 1. Huge + for the town.

So even on night zero, with no information, a random roleblock is more likely then not the right decision for the town.

I just want to say this logic has got me lynched as protown roleblocker in scumchat multiple times. People need to learn that Night 0 blocks are GOOD things.

[Zindaras]

You can pull off all kinds of math on roleblocking or not roleblocking Night 0, but I think that roleblockers and other roles that are double-edged (can mess up scum and town) are always more fun when used Night 0. Except vigs or one-shots, those not.

[Thestatusquo]

Pie would disagree.

[Fiasco]

I think it's hard to justify not vigging N1. Mafia is a race between the town's more-or-less random lynching and the mafia's nonrandom nightkills. Most setups would be skewed toward the town if they were nightless. Vigging makes the game closer to nightless.

[Patrick]

I think it's hard to justify not vigging N1. Mafia is a race between the town's more-or-less random lynching and the mafia's nonrandom nightkills. Most setups would be skewed toward the town if they were nightless. Vigging makes the game closer to nightless.

I disagree with blind vigging on a first night. I also don't think that a town's lynch is more or less random, not if the town is any good.

[remussaidow]

if you blind vig on night 1, you not only seriously risk getting a town power role, you're also letting the mafia know that you're there. A good part of the vig is the surprise attack.

[Fiasco]

Most setups would be skewed toward the town if they were nightless.

I half take this back. 3:9 is only 50-50, for example. Still not awful, and you have to take into account the vig not killing himself. (Town lynches possibly being better than random should already have been included in the balance for the game as a whole.)

[Thesp]

if you blind vig on night 1, you not only seriously risk getting a town power role, you're also letting the mafia know that you're there. A good part of the vig is the surprise attack.

A known vig does make counterclaiming by scum far less likely.

[Zindaras]

Pie would disagree.

Pie is right as far as math goes, but I disagree with it ethically. I don't like dying Night One, and to kill someone because the maths say it's a slightly better option I don't like either.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

More days = more information = better lynches. The math doesn't account for that. Vigging for the sake of vigging is bad.

[Yosarian2]

More days = more information = better lynches. The math doesn't account for that. Vigging for the sake of vigging is bad.

Agreed.

Also, lynches create information, based on who was on the bandwagon, who supported the bandwagon, who opposed it, ect. Nightkills create much less information then lynches. More nightkills means less lynches, which is bad for the town.

Of course, it depends on the number of kills there already are; if there's just one town and one scum group, then two vig kills=1 less lynch, and not incidentaly 1 less night for cops and to investigate, a pretty high cost to the town, so your kill had better be a lot better then random to make it worthwhile.

On the other hand, if there's already like 10 kills a night (say, Checkmate mafia as an example) one more's not going to speed the game much.

[EmpTyger]

My experiences as player and mod have actually led me to the exact opposite conclusion as Stoofer. The basic theory behind it seems to be that one of the mafia’s main strengths being that they are “informed” working against the “uninformed”. So as the number and complexity of Pro-Town power roles is increased, the mafia lose this advantage. As a result, the balance moves against them. There’s probably more to it than that, and I’d like to respond to this thread more fully, but I don’t really have the time for a bit.

[Adele]

I think that, at the least, more power roles make balance less predictable, and playout scenarios more potentially extreme; there may be town wins or scum wins much earlier than one would expect from a balanced scenario (do few players making it to endgame point to a balanced setup, or just a GG?)

[Mr Stoofer]

My experiences as player and mod have actually led me to the exact opposite conclusion as Stoofer. The basic theory behind it seems to be that one of the mafia’s main strengths being that they are “informed” working against the “uninformed”. So as the number and complexity of Pro-Town power roles is increased, the mafia lose this advantage. As a result, the balance moves against them. There’s probablyfor the S more to it than that, and I’d like to respond to this thread more fully, but I don’t really have the time for a bit.

The reason why I disagree is that it is

much

easier Scum to figure out what is going on. They know which kills are theirs and which kills were not. They know which claims are true and which are not. etc etc

[Yosarian2]

Well, it's always easier for the mafia to figure out what's going on, but what the mafia knows isn't as important as what the town knows. The best that can do is to improve their kill choices, whereas the more the town knows, the better their lynches get, and the better all of their night actions get; roleblocks, vigs, investigations, re-directs, or flying pumpkins. Not only that, if the town is confused having trouble who to believe, then they can often figure out a way to use their complex roles to answer questions about who is telling the truth.

[Rainbow Brite]

stoofer's 3rd law applies when people overcompensate, particularly with "bastard-modding", for the addition of extra power. the law isn't in and of itself meaningful - it's all about balance, which becomes increasingly difficult as the game gets more saturated, and the approach of the meta to balancing saturated games.

[Mr Stoofer]

it's all about balance, which becomes increasingly difficult as the game gets more saturated, and the approach of the meta to balancing saturated games.

√

The point of Stoofer's 3rd Law is to make mods think: will adding [role] to the game really help the Town? Or will it make it more difficult and confusing, due to (amongst other things) unanticipated interactions between pro-town power roles?

[Rainbow Brite]

The point of Stoofer's 3rd Law is to make mods think: will adding [role] to the game really help the Town? Or will it make it more difficult and confusing, due to (amongst other things) unanticipated interactions between pro-town power roles?

now that raises an interesting question - you're implying the former is a good thing and the latter is a bad thing, which i don't think is

necessarily

true. i'm not a fan of the spiderweb nightgame, but some people appear to be.

what is the purpose of town roles? that's probably worthy of a thread w/ poll in its own right...

[Mr Stoofer]

I wasn't meaning to raise any interesting questions. In my response "more difficult and confusing" = more difficult and confusing for the Town = moving the game balance in favour of the Scum.

It's up to the mod to decide whether he wants to make life harder or easier for the Town. My only point is: don't think that adding that [elaborate power-role] will necessarily move the game balance towards the Town; it might move it the other way, especially if you already have loads of other elaborate power-roles.

[Rainbow Brite]

yeah, i was being tangential - that's ok isn't it?

[MightyFireball]

Ah Stoofer's third law. I see what both sides are saying here, but I don't think that, neccissarily, adding more power roles will help or hurt the Town. There is a balance in between, and it is the Mod's job to find that balance.

[Mr Stoofer]

Isn't that what I said?