Open 468: The Cannibals of Aifam - Game Over

[Voidedmafia]

I don't think I did, considered you were scum.

I'm sorry, I didn't realize "jeck" suddenly became "Penguin_Alien" <_<

Try again?

what do you mean by that?

It's simple. You made no sense.

[havingfitz]

Nice...I got targeted by both mafia AND the SK N1.

I didn't follow the game much after my early exit (only made 8 posts) but congrats to Penguin on the win. The hidden NK info definitely allowed your claim to succeed.

[jeck]

I don't think I did, considered you were scum.

I'm sorry, I didn't realize "jeck" suddenly became "Penguin_Alien" <_<

Try again?

oh, I quoted the wrong sentence. well I guess I called you VI because I thought you were town. And how pathetic is it to make some reallife threats about it? I wouldnt mind telling you irl just because you seem like an idiot.

And since when did you became PA aswell?

[Voidedmafia]

you still haven't explained how I was an idiot even as scum. If you really think I was "bad", then show me where because I think most everyone else thought I played pretty well.

And I don't have to be PA to answer that question.

[jeck]

you still haven't explained how I was an idiot even as scum. If you really think I was "bad", then show me where because I think most everyone else thought I played pretty well.

I didnt say that, but I didn't answer your question old question about playing VI-meta as town to be able to do it successful as a scum, which I didn't really consider an option which I can admit I don't really have a clue about but in that kind of situation I feel like it would be +EV both as scum and town to try to play pro-townish.
Which you obv didn't.

you said PA looked so townish when she really didn't not necessarily scumish either.
Your quickhammer on Elscouta was suspicious.
You got killed by the vig.

Doesn't sound like a good record.
And who said you played well? If it weren't for other town ppl played bad you were going to get lynched the first day because of your so called good plays.

[TheReverend]

Ladies, calm down. You both played crap. So did I. Big deal.

[Voidedmafia]

I didnt say that, but I didn't answer your question old question about playing VI-meta as town to be able to do it successful as a scum

I don't HAVE a VI-meta, thank you.

you said PA looked so townish when she really didn't not necessarily scumish either

...I said she was clearly town, yes. And she didn't look scummy at all. That's a

good

thing, even as scum.

If I was town, I had someone I could trust to help lynch scum.
As scum, I had someone I could set up for the NK, or leave for endgame to help win..
As SK, see for scum

yeah, so I was wrong about PA being the SK. So? She was gonna die N3 anyways by me.

Your quickhammer on Elscouta was suspicious.

...I didn't quickhammer?

You got killed by the vig.

...And that's a bad thing?

Granted, PA probably still had this game in the bag, but if njoseph hadn't screwed up D3 so bad I don't think D4 would've gone down the way it did.

And who said you played well? If it weren't for other town ppl played bad you were going to get lynched the first day because of your so called good plays

lol. Yet no one tried to lynch me after that one attempt? Don't look at things so narrowly.

Ladies, calm down. You both played crap. So did I. Big deal.

I dislike being called a VI when I know I don't deserve it. He can say my play was not as it should be, fine, but not that I'm a VI.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I don't think you played particularly badly, Rev. Don't beat yourself up.

I agree that PA did great this game. Don't take my blocking her night one the wrong way, I had no inclination that she was scum. I just usually block someone who's unlikely to be a NK target night one.

I also agree that VM isn't a VI.

[TheReverend]

I was right about voided and safetydance, that's all. I was horribly wrong about ace/jeck, alwaysmafia and njoseph, so I don't consider this to be one of my greatest games.

Yeah I wasn't too keen on the VI comments, I don't think either of us were that bad, but whatever, it's the internet, I got thick enough skin to just laugh. In the dead thread, I called jeck a wanker if he flips town. Very few people are nice to everyone all the time. If jeck thinks myself or voided were VI, he's free to hold that opinion. I'm more concerned about my play than what others think about it. Game is over now, so I'll quite happily forget all the mean stuff that got said and move on with my life. I'm just glad this one is over, the last day was tediously long.

[TheReverend]

And PA... had him firmly in my town camp. Pfft.

[Voidedmafia]

And PA... had him firmly in my town camp. Pfft.

Hey, we both did. No shame in that.

[penguin_alien]

jeck, I meant that your arguments weren't very persuasive to me. They seemed to come from a point of view that one should analyze the game assuming everyone has an even shot of being scum, when the point of all the discussion is to narrow things down. And yes, you did correctly say I was scum, but a) you said the same about several people, having voted for the majority of not-you people on Day Three, and b) you can be the best scumhunter in the world, but it's to no avail if you can't convince anyone else. I think your mindset might have worked a bit better in a game with role reveals, as you would have had actual connections on which to base your speculation.

Voidedmafia, you had me bamboozled as well. I owe a lot to Malakittens' superior scumhunting ability, as I don't think you'd have been on my list of kills or lynches. It would have been interesting if you'd been around on Day Three to direct the kill at me. It would have bounced, and I'm not sure I'd have been in a position to weasel out of it, as it's likely JohnnyFarrar would have been alive to negate my option to claim RB.

havingfitz, here's my rationale for the NK on you: " Since this is the only NK I'll make during the game that's guaranteed to go through, let's try havingfitz for now. I may change this if I come up with something better, but I want to avoid overlapping with either the vig or the Mafia if possible, since I suspect time is not on my side as the SK." So yeah, the not overlapping thing didn't work out so wonderfully! Sorry to cut your time in the game so short after you were gracious enough to replace in.

[SafetyDance]

Thanks to triangle for modding the game.

Anyway I'm down to two votes but still think you're going to lynch me anyway, so I'll make a stab, I'd say the three scum are Voided/njoseph/skenvoy but it could be anyone, I don't think anyone is obv town, which says a lot about your own playing as well. Or I'm just a cynical untrusting bastard.

On 2 lynches and 2 major wagons: njosesph, penguin_alien
On 1 lynch and 1 major wagon: jeck, Nobody Special
On 1 lynch: JohnnyFarrar, SafetyDance

So looking at the VA, both lynches were bad and we've all been on a bad lynch but everytime there has been a lynch or wagon close to lynching, njoseph and penguin have been on it. That's rather too convenient I think. One of them, at least, is scum.

Pleased about this, at least my reads were right. Had VM as scummy from early on and njoseph entire scumhunting was based around 4 players on his wagon early on. Penguin on all the bad lynches or (l-1) was proof too convenient, haha.

You screwed yourself up with that hammer regardless of me attacking you for it njoseph, there was no real scenario where you'd come out of that looking good, you played into the serial killer's hands, which surely you'd have known was alive? You worrying about your own tail was funny too because penguin could have voted for either of you, it didn't really matter lol. You did do me a favour though, worst nightmare during the night was getting to lylo with yourself and NS.

penguin, you had me totally fooled. But I WAS RIGHT that njoseph was scum.

You were up against two scum, how is this a good thing? The way you played throughout the game was terribly anti-town, it just helped scum that you were alive and not contributing.

Like others said it was the general apathy and inactivity that lead to our downfall the most. Elscouta was gone through the holidays, I was too (don't think I could have changed the lynch though) and Johnny leaving his vote on during the weekend when he wasn't around. I'd have liked more discussion, dammit njoseph.

[SafetyDance]

This isn't complete. As promised in the dead QT, this is what I was working on when njoseph hammered, which made me tilt.

Spoiler:

***DISCLAIMER: THIS IS ALL THEORY AND TRYING TO WORK THINGS OUT***

Day 1 - havingfitz
Day 2 - TheReverend, Voidedmafia, Malakittens

What

do

we actually know from the night kills now? We know that since three people died day 2, there had to at least one of every party present.

Night 1

havingfitz - likely town. He's definitely not Vig, SK or 1 of the mafia, giving him a low chance of being the other maf. 11% (1/9) I think which is low enough to discount it since we don't have a lot to go on.

So with SK, Vig, and Maf in the game how come there'd be only one kill? Vig shouldn't be shooting when it's so random, especially with a townie-lynched so its fine to discount it from killing, if they did then we have more problems than just njoseph. That leaves SK

3 scenarios:
1. someone got roleblocked - 1/11 chance, lower than I gave fitz to be maf. Whoever it was that rb'ed the maf or sk would have spoken because scum is scum and its a pro-town thing to do, especially if alive d2 + d3. Fmpov, knowing there's 3 scum + 3 town (me + ns&el), that's 6 players whom it could be, giving fitz a small chance to be it but with the other 5 players alive, someone would have said something if rb did stop a kill and three kills overnight means a good chance to have been hit anyway.

2. serial killer got hit - with the immunity sk has, it makes sense that he could have survived a shot. Would also give town an advantage as going into night 2 maf would have to waste a shot on the double-tap but there'd be no problem on their end because two town have died in a lynch and sk would get at least another kill, vig is just a bonus for them - town advantage lost.

3. one of the scum didn't shoot - not sure there's a valid reason why but have to consider it. Why would a two team maf not take the opportunity to kill? Has to be serial killer, possible reason to try to counter-claim vig if opportunity arose. Better shot at it if he can claim no kill n1, seeds doubt.

I'm going to say #2 looks most reasonable from where I'm standing...

Night 2

We can't gain much from the night but we can try and deduce things using occam's razor and educated guess.

Have to focus on the vig kill and why he/she chose one of those three. From a vig's perspective you have to be sure you're going to hit scum. There is no way malakitten could be considered a good kill for a vig. Even if she was on a bad lynch why would you kill someone who was pro-town and could help the next day. Especially compared to VM or TR.

VoidedMafia and TheReverand. Well, TR came out and basically said shoot him, could be a no brainer why he was chosen. Wifom-y if he survived really. VM has also looked
scummy, giving weak reads and focusing more on defending himself, not to mention the fact he hammered yesterday which could be a glaring target for vig.

Now, the only way to get any sense out of who and what, is if we apply Scenario 2 from Night One which then means:
Mafia hits the SK
Vig hits VM/TR again, VM/TR must have been the SK
If MK wasn't vigged then she had to have been killed be SK
VM or TR must be the SK themselves and have been targeted by the MAF.
SK himself went after malakittens as the most pro-town person here


In Summary, what I think happened based on night 1 scenario 2 being right:
N1, SK(VM/TR) killed havingfitz
N1, Mafia targeted SK(VM/TR)
N1, Vig did nothing

N2, SK killed malakittens
N2, Maf killed (VM/TR)
N2, Vig killed the other

Seemed a waste to delete all that typing. It was close but no cigar, everything was pointing to njoseph though. Might have drawn out Johnny with an rb claim. Why didn't you do that btw? Could have had a clear town going into the lynch?

[SafetyDance]

jeck, I meant that your arguments weren't very persuasive to me. They seemed to come from a point of view that one should analyze the game assuming everyone has an even shot of being scum, when the point of all the discussion is to narrow things down. And yes, you did correctly say I was scum, but a) you said the same about several people, having voted for the majority of not-you people on Day Three, and b) you can be the best scumhunter in the world, but it's to no avail if you can't convince anyone else. I think your mindset might have worked a bit better in a game with role reveals, as you would have had actual connections on which to base your speculation.

Forgot to say well done on your win, well played.

Yeah, the scatter-gun approach and calling everybody a Village Idiot really didn't do any favours.

[penguin_alien]

That is pretty close, SafetyDance, although I think you don't consider a double-targeting of havingfitz. What do you mean by drawing JohnnyFarrar out with an RB claim?

(could I see the dead QT link, BTW? I'm curious about the real-time reactions to the goings-on)

p-edit: Thanks, SafetyDance!

[SafetyDance]

He'd have been a clear town PR (well presuming no one counter-claimed). Which would have been very useful.

Dead QT

I think the good thing about your vig claim was even though #869 was complete fabrication, #870 was an accurate town reading of how the other two played.

The setup is hard to play without any night info, no vig-kill info is just mean.

[penguin_alien]

Thanks for the link. I wasn't 100% certain that my 1-shot BP hadn't been used Night One, so I was going for the most likely scum at LyLo. I was wrong because njoseph's NK made no sense to me, but I wasn't trolling. I did figure it was unlikely, as if scum had shot me Night One and had it bounce, they should have hit me Nights Two or Three to get access to the information in my larder, especially since that would have meant that as of Night Three, the only body they'd have had would be VT TheReverend . But I'd seen another game where it was an SK-Mafia draw because one side voted hastily with the BP used up and didn't want that to happen to me.

[njoseph]

I kind of would feel better about my choice if P_A DID target me Night Three and J.F. roleblocked her. Oh well

[LlamaFluff]

no more