Mini 1566: Lunar Silver Star Story Complete (Game Over)

[Kdub]

VOTE: catboi

Because boi < boy.

Going to be a bit busy over the next week, but I should still be able to check in and post every day.

[Kdub]

catboi, confirm/deny that you are hated?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ActionDan

[Kdub]

I'm taking catboi's lack of comment on the unknown vote on him to mean that either he has no info or doesn't want to share at the moment.

Lots of noise so far. I get a town feel from sangres's posts. Jake and Hello Kitty's posts are annoying/worthless, but not particularly enlightening in terms of alignment.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Aegor

Partly gut feel for now.

[Kdub]

Jake's replace-out thing is null. It wasn't a very strong threat, real or not.

Aegor going for a policy lynch on Hello Kitty bugs me, unless he has some meta reason to think their hydra behavior is a scum tell. I haven't seen any explanation from him. Happy with my vote for now.

[Kdub]

Someone explain the case on Scar for me? The most I've gotten from wading through the noise has been Aj's initial vote on him in 212. Everyone else on the wagon, I'm unclear on why they suspect him.

[Kdub]

I don't like catboi much either, but Aegor is scummier ATM.

So nobody came up with any decent reasons for the Scar wagon?

[Kdub]

OK, I should be back on a relatively normal schedule now, so I can spend some more time on this game. I'll reread and catch up on the last few pages today.

[Kdub]

Rereading this game was just as painful as the first time around.

I'm liking Aj and Mac as town so far. HKC's posting still is annoying, but I am getting a weakish town read on them because there are some strings of posts throughout that feel genuine and like they are honestly trying to work things out.

Nah. I think it's entirely within my right to question a naked vote even if it's on a wagon I'm on. I don't like when someone makes a vote like that without explaining it when it's on a fairly serious wagon. I don't like when that type of stuff goes by unquestioned

So were you satisfied by BRO's response? You didn't really give any reaction to it.

I'm gonna lol so hard if HKC and Jake are scum together.

What makes you think they could be scum together?

I think they are scum because

1. the "we are town" post gave me a bad vibe
2. the hydra dissonance seems fake and should be kept behind the scenes as much as possinle and their usless banter/posts makes them look like they are trolling and in my experience these kind of people don't get lynched, especially day 1.
3. no scum hunting from what I have seen
4. not doing anything that resembles pro-town behavior

How did you distinguish between fake hydra dissonance and real hydra dissonance? If it were real, would you perceive that as a town tell?

[Kdub]

Real hydra dissonance with a town hydra IMO would do their best to hash it out behind the scenes in their QT and would include explanations for why they disagree with each other's reads

Seems playstyle-dependent IMO. Unless there is past history of this hydra acting the way you think a town hydra should, I don't agree that town hydras automatically behave that way.

[Kdub]

How did the Aegor wagon fall apart anyway? That was (and still is) a good wagon.

[Kdub]

Someone explain the case on Scar for me? The most I've gotten from wading through the noise has been Aj's initial vote on him in 212. Everyone else on the wagon, I'm unclear on why they suspect him.

It's a horrible wagon, he's town... Why does it feel like you haven't gotten engaged at all this game? You aren't scum again, are you?

It feels like I haven't been engaged because I really haven't been engaged so far. First few days of the game, I was busy and didn't have much time. Lots of garbage to wade through with all of the spamposting, and I don't have especially strong reads at the moment.

If you think Scar is town and his wagon was bad, why are you going after Jake rather than someone who you think might be scum pushing that wagon?

[Kdub]

Waiting on Aegor's reasoning for following Jake like a lost puppy

I was unaware that I was sheeping Jake, so I have little explanation. If you mean my SMP vote, it was a wagon hop and had nothing to do with who voted.

So why the SMP vote then? If it had nothing to do with Jake's vote, the timing was quite coincidental.

And part of the problem I'm having with this game is stuff like this where people throw their votes on people without any reasoning. If it's based on gut or a hunch, that's fine, but say so.

[Kdub]

Jake seems like legitimately frustrated town here. I could see noob-scum panic claiming with just a few votes on them, but Jake isn't a noob.

That's it. I'm done with this shit. Lynch HKC.
SMP might be scum for this crappy reason.
HKC is scum, because... I SAID SO.
Mac is scum, because he's having similar thought processes to good players
By the way, I'm a PR."
That's a good summary.


People aren't going to lynch a fucking PR. Please do claim your role. That way we can see if anyone wants to counter claim.

This is a pretty bad post. Why are you asking for a role claim here? He said he was a PR, and you say nobody will lynch a PR, so why isn't that sufficient? If he claims (as he did) and there are no counterclaims, then what? Does that change your opinion on him? This just feels like you are trying to get role information out of him for no good reason.

[Kdub]

HS, no response to why you were trying to get Jake to claim?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: HighShroomish

I am not familiar with SMP's meta, so I don't have a very strong opinion on him. Low activity level alone is a pretty weak reason for a lynch IMO.

And I am still pissed at all of you for not letting me play the game I wanted to, I wanted to stick to my new playstyle but no you all were bunch of derpy derps. My new playstyle is supposed to be less argumentative and more go with the flow as my last couple of games have gone. This game has not been the new Jake and I am not happy about it.

Can you explain the differences between your old and new playstyle and why you decided to change for this game? I think we've only been in one game together before, so I'm not sure what the distinction is.

Yes, Kdub, that is correct.


So I want SMP dead, and then HS. Also catboi.

How did everyone miss this? I checked his join date right after reading to see if this guy was new and was about to call him newb scum but now I'm confused: How do you justify this post? It isn't even trying to cover up that he wants to chain lynch.

Meh, I don't see it as a chain lynch unless he said lynching HS was contingent on SMP flipping a certain way. Aegor is scummy for other reasons though.

Jake seems like legitimately frustrated town here. I could see noob-scum panic claiming with just a few votes on them, but Jake isn't a noob.

except, I don't think he's panic claiming... not really, and even if he was even the most experienced are prone to such a thing. I still think he's trying to get people scared of lynching him.

But he wasn't anywhere near being lynched. Would scum claim due to just a few votes to try to head things off at that point? There are strategic reasons for scum not locking themselves into a claim too early. I guess it's possible, but I can't recall any instances off the top of my head where that has happened.

[Kdub]

He claimed he had a PR and I thought he was scum, so I was hoping he would claim something that could be counter claimed.

OK, this statement shows an underlying lack of town motivation. First of all, there is such a thing as safeclaims. Second, and more importantly,

you wanted to potentially out more PRs by looking for a counterclaim

. Your thought process here is not pro-town.

Also, let's say nobody counterclaims. Then what? Do you believe Jake, or do you want to lynch him anyway?

[Kdub]

Rereading this game was just as painful as the first time around.

I'm liking Aj and Mac as town so far. HKC's posting still is annoying, but I am getting a weakish town read on them because there are some strings of posts throughout that feel genuine and like they are honestly trying to work things out.

I'm not sure why you're reading AJ as town.

When I read his posts, his thought process seems logical and genuine to me, moreso than most other players. I haven't seen anything from him so far that would make me think he is scum.

We were pushing Jake because we thought Jake was scum (currently am not so sure he is). I don't really understand the question, though: is scumhunting off his wagon the only acceptable course of action for us to take as town? Why wouldn't we do it as scum?

Sure, it's acceptable to scumhunt elsewhere, but I question how strongly you feel about the Scar wagon being bad if your focus is on Jake instead.

I'm not sure why you're reading AJ as town.

On that note, I am not sure why you are town reading PhdScar, HKC, Mac, and Action Dan

Is this directed at me or sangres?

[Kdub]

Antihero, why do you think I am scum?

Jake is town. HKC seems town, but I am less confident in that read.

I will be happy with an HS or Aegor lynch today. I'd compromise with SMP or Scar if it came down to it, even though I don't feel strongly about them either way.

[Kdub]

HKC seems town,

tell me why lying is pro town

"Lying" means you think HKC knows that something is false and says it anyway. It's not lying if they say something based on their view/opinion of what happened, even if it turns out to be false. Being wrong != lying.

My reasons are simple: This game makes me sad. Killing HKC or Jake would cut the number of posts in half and make me not sad since I could actually contribute. Killing me would make me happy because it would remove me from the hell that is slogging through the posts in this thread. It is page 34 and I still have no actual reads on anyone, and I do not really think a re-read will change that. I have very little to offer here.

I agree, I'd rather see wallposts but have the game be half the number of pages that it is. I don't know why, but it's psychologically tougher to go entire pages with just 3 or 4 people posting one-liners back and forth.

for kdub, i feel like there's a lot of questioning, but little connection to the big picture. in particular, the PhD parts are bothersome (what's the opinion, does he like the scar lynch or not?; he's not criticizing the wagon, but leaving the door open to join it).
the shroom vote is meh too.

I saw no good reasons for the Scar wagon, so I didn't want to join it. Independent of that, I have a null read on Scar himself. I guess it's fair for you to say I haven't taken a strong stance on it, but I simply don't have one at this point.

You don't find it even the least bit sketchy that HS asked Jake for a role claim at the point that he did? I could get into why his reasons for asking for the claim were crap as well, but let's just start on this point for now.

[Kdub]

So why not do more? Question the people in scar's wagon better or question scar to determine his alignment. Saying you don't want to join it but would anyway is scummy. Who are your scum reads? What are you doing to try and get them lynched?

I said I would compromise on Scar if it came down to it just so we can get a lynch and end the day. That's not scummy, it's reasonable play if your top lynch choices become unviable.

I thought I made it clear that I suspect HS and Aegor at the moment. I'm trying to see why people are giving HS a pass for his stance on you earlier.

[Kdub]

assume shroom is scum and jake's town. why would shroom ask for a counterclaim? he knew he wouldn't get one.

What? The whole point of scum-HS asking for a claim is to find out Jake's role. The "looking for a counterclaim" stuff I think he made up as an excuse. That's why I was asking him about what he would do if there were no counterclaim, and I don't think he's given a good answer.

[Kdub]

Oh shit we have less than 24 hours.

VOTE: MAC

...and people are trying to say

my

vote is bad?

[Kdub]

And that's what I was waiting for

UNVOTE
VOTE: PhD

Just putting me at L-1 without saying a word and I haven't liked you anyways.
P-Edit- Ninja
That didn't do anything to change my vote.

I'm not sure what kind of "gotcha" you think you have here, but an explanation would be nice. I mean, what were you expecting from either Scar-scum or Scar-town here? You haven't said much about him all game.

[Kdub]

My initial thought was also to ask for a claim so that Jake would be forced into claiming a specific role: I think town motivation behind asking for someone to expand upon a PR claim is pretty fucking obvious and not completely and totally scum motivated like you're pretending it must be.

I also think you know that, but have decided to take this line of attack because it sounds awkward and you think you have a decent line of attack as scum.

That's a fine reason to ask Jake for a claim if you are town, but

that wasn't the reason HS gave

. I'm not saying town motivation can't exist, I'm saying that the line of reasoning HS took was not town-motivated. Your argument here is irrelevant to what he actually posted, which you decided to ignore for some reason and instead ascribed some hypothetical town-motivated reasoning to his actions.

Which sangres head am I talking to BTW? Are you both in agreement about your reads on HS/SMP/me?

[Kdub]

4 people willing to vote kdub? Who else?

Sign me up for a Kdub lynch if the rest of the game is going to be as painful as D1.

Serious response incoming.

Pedit: Hey look, secret voter wants me dead too.

[Kdub]

He gave the reasoning that he wanted to see if anyone counter claimed. I think the intent is the same: PR claim is no risk for scum!Jake, forcing him to claim a specific role is added risk for scum!Jake. Do you seriously not see that?

I don't think the intent is the same at all. You're talking about locking scum into a claim, which is fine. How does that have anything to do with looking for counterclaims?

You don't find it even the least bit sketchy that HS asked Jake for a role claim at the point that he did? I could get into why his reasons for asking for the claim were crap as well, but let's just start on this point for now.

context: shroom was pushing jake and jake already softclaimed.
looking at the ISO, it looks a lot more like shroom thinks he's calling jake's bluff rather than just straight up role fishing out of nowhere.

fun exercise:
assume shroom is scum and jake's town. why would shroom ask for a counterclaim? he knew he wouldn't get one.

kdub's case makes a lot less sense considering the context.

Ugh, did you not even read my post where I responded to this (which is what sangres and I have been arguing over)? Stuff like this is why I'm annoyed at this game, and you've generally been one of the better posters so far.

kdub continues to pull this thread even though sangres and i have repeatedly talked about this and it's really not that hard to understand. it's an untenable position, kdub knows it but he's pushing it anyway because he needs those mislynches

OK, let's think this through. You talked before about how I didn't join the Scar wagon when it got going, and I didn't join the Jake wagon either. Yet now, I "need those mislynches" even though I was the first one to vote HS. If you think I am scum, why was I not on those more viable wagons (at the time)? Do you think Scar/Jake are both scum too?

I'm VT whoever asked me to claim.
And yes Scar, that's what I was looking for. Kdub would be good, too.

Not a word about me up to now, but willing to vote me? Reasons?

I'm not claiming because 1) claiming my role is unlikely to change anyone's mind, and 2) my role is such that claiming will make it pretty much useless.

Final reads/comments if this is going to be my last post:
- I thought Jake was town before, and the last few pages have strengthened that read.
- HKC still feels town to me.
- sangres is a big question mark. The last exchange between me and them (re: HS's motivation) doesn't feel like one that should have happened the way it did if we were both town.
- I didn't like catboi, but Antihero is probably town.
- HS is still scum.
- Aegor's last few posts have felt a bit better to me. Not enough for me to give him a town read, but better.
- Dan/Scar need to answer for their votes on me. I get that there's deadline pressure, but there were three viable wagons (me/HS/SMP).

I will be here for about ~30 minutes, then I'll be out until the deadline.

Pedit: Scar, since you're here, why did you vote (and then unvote) me?

[Kdub]

Because I have no idea what is going on! I'm planning on finishing the day then replacing out, to give the mod and replacement more time.

So you were just happy to hop on any wagon regardless of who it is?

[Kdub]

Before someone hammers, I'd like HS to explain why he thinks I'm scum.

[Kdub]

OK. I will note that you never responded to my follow-up question in that post, and never indicated a scum read of me for that up until the point where my wagon became a viable alternative to your own.

[Kdub]

Well, I'm headed out. It's possible I may be able to check in briefly in ~30 minutes to answer last questions, but otherwise, I might be gone until the deadline.

[Kdub]

I really did not like Scar's behavior at the end of yesterday, but his replace-out kinda nullifies a lot of that. Interested in what Muffin has to say.

I don't have strong feelings about SMP based on his play, but I can accept an SMP lynch based on him being a counterwagon to HS/me yesterday, plus just POE since I have a lot of town reads at the moment.

I thought sangres's reason for moving off of me and onto HS yesterday was interesting. I might have some things to say about it later on if the issue arises, but for now, I'll give them a tentative town read based them coming right out and clearing BRO today.

Aegor, why are you voting SMP?

[Kdub]

You don't have strong feellings about someone whose contribution to day 1 was 8 one-liiner posts?

That's right. Can you really say you have strong feelings about someone who has barely posted (unless you are basing it on meta)?

SMP's claim on its own makes me wary because of the role cop aspect. With a 1v1 with Anti, who I read as town, I'm willing to vote SMP once everyone weighs in and is ready.

[Kdub]

You said you could accept an SMP lynch before Antihero claimed he's lying.

Yes I did. I don't get the point of this comment.

[Kdub]

You said you could accept an SMP lynch before Antihero claimed he's lying.

Yes I did. I don't get the point of this comment.

Your post I was responding to made it sound like Antihero's soft claim led to your willlingness to see SMP lynched. That doesn't line up with your earlier post.

First of all, I don't agree and think you are nitpicking here. Secondly, even if that really were my intention, what are you trying to suggest about my motivation for doing so? If you think that's scummy, explain my scum motivation here.

[Kdub]

Anti, I did not claim anything. I'd rather not discuss it further.

[Kdub]

It's an oblique edgewise stance you're taking, and that pings pretty damn hard.

I can see you posting this way as scum regardless of SMP's flip. by not coming out so strong that you'd have difficulty walking it back if the momentum shifts a little.

If your complaint is just about the strength of my words, fine. That's subjective and there isn't anything I can say other than "you're wrong". If your complaint is about my actual stance on SMP, then you still haven't addressed what my possible scum motivation would be.

[Kdub]

Who did you come into the game day wanting to push?

My initial feeling after seeing HS's flip was that Scar was looking pretty bad/opportunistic for his wagon hops at the end of D1, but when he replaced out as he said he would, it's hard for me to assign motivations to someone who didn't care at that point. I also had some bad feelings about you, but that was before you came out with your result on BRO, so I'm not pursuing that at the moment.

Please give us your opinion of SMP at the beginning of the day in more detail than in your first post.

He's done nothing of note. The D1 case on him seemed to be mostly built on lurking and meta. I've never played with him before, and his few posts didn't stand out to me as particularly good or bad. That's about the extent of what I thought about him up until D2. Like I said, I just don't feel very strongly about his play one way or the other.

Aegor's posts on page 51 are LOLbad. I'm not even sure what the point of his argument is, regardless of alignment.

i blocked SMP because i figured scum would send their most heavily suspcted scumbag to do the kill (so that they wouldn't lose much if they were caught out by a tracker/watcher/roleblocker).

Anti, you suspected me pretty heavily yesterday, and I believe more people suspected me than SMP, so why not block me instead?

1) you're his scum partner

(1) actually is the least plausible explanation you could possibly think of. i mean, it assumes he is lying about his target, knows he was roleblocked, and decided to claim a result on a scum buddy because... ~magic reasons~

Actually, this was my first thought as well (you being a possible buddy). It guarantees his investigation result will be confirmed (even if it's a lie). If Anti had turned out to be a tracker or something and confirmed that SMP didn't actually target you, you are not implicated and say SMP just made a lucky guess.

SMP, can you claim your flavor name and confirm that your role is specifically called "odd-night role cop and reporter"? And to confirm exactly how your role works, if you were to investigate a PR (of either alignment), you would get their actual role (e.g. "cop", "doctor", "roleblocker", etc.), but if you investigate a VT/goon, you get "vanilla"?

[Kdub]

Anti, you suspected me pretty heavily yesterday, and I believe more people suspected me than SMP, so why not block me instead?

partly, it was because of what i perceived you "claimed" yesterday.

also, the popular opinion swung pretty rapidly in your favor yesterday. i figured that even if you were scum, you would want to keep this new-found good standing and not risk blowing it to a tracker/watcher/roleblocker result.

OK, fair enough.

like let us assume i am his scum buddy and he claims a result on me because i won't say it's wrong (even though i probably would because lololbus but whatever)

whether or not i confirm his result doesn't make him any more or less likely to be scum/town than he was beforehand

so essentially to think i'm scum with him would require him (a) knowing he was roleblocked, (b) thinking it was a good idea to claim a result anyway, and (c) thinking claiming a result on a scum buddy would somehow clear him or help me

i mean, not only that but it would severely limit my fake-claiming options (which is something i would bus the fuck out of him for purely out of spite if he did that to me) AND it assumes i replaced in that night phase and didn't talk him through all the possible options in case he'd have to claim today (which is something i would definitely do, because that is how i play scum)

sooooooooo yeah

I think having his result confirmed gives him some town credit, but I see your argument here.

because the real cop wouldn't out an inno day 2. I mean we tell newbies not to do that so why would an experience player do it?

What's the scum motivation for clearing BRO the way they did?

[Kdub]

I don't think it was optimal town play, but it definitely is a pro-town move.

[Kdub]

SMP is probably a smarter lynch today. maybe. dunno

btw if SMP is actually town, i'm pretty near conf-town unless you think (a) i'm a goon (which seems rather unlikely if this is 10:3 given how power-heavy town seems to be), and (b) i performed no action last night (which would mean one of the other scum players - who would probably have a PR of sorts - performed the kill instead)

so SMP lynch either results in scum flip or me near conf-town so yeah

the fact SMP isn't really doing anything probably means scum flip though but whatevs

I generally agree with this.

Given the timing and nature of the SMP/Anti exchange at the start of the day, I think it's highly unlikely that Anti is scum here, and any explanations for SMP being town would rely on plausible but unlikely assumptions about other roles messing with Anti. I think everyone has weighed in, and discussion seems to be slowing down.

VOTE: SMP

L-1

[Kdub]

Anti and BRO are town. I still read Jake as town.

Muffin has a point that if he was SMP's buddy, he would have locked himself into a claim with that interaction yesterday, so I can give him a bit of town credit for that.

Scum is likely in [AJ, HKC, Mac, Aegor].

@Aj: Thoughts on Aegor? Do you read him as town or scum?

@Mac: What are your reads at the moment?

[Kdub]

Yes, I'm not saying Muffin is solid town, but it's enough for me to look elsewhere today.

[Kdub]

Can we get some prods on Aj and Mac?

[Kdub]

Blah.

While we're waiting for Mac to catch up and for an Aj replacement, I'm going to do this.

VOTE: Aegor

Aegor, in light of Aj's replace-out, are you still reading that slot as scum? Why or why not?

[Kdub]

Blah.

While we're waiting for Mac to catch up and for an Aj replacement, I'm going to do this.

VOTE: Aegor

Aegor, in light of Aj's replace-out, are you still reading that slot as scum? Why or why not?

is aj's replace-out alignment indicative to you?

Not particularly, but Aegor had pushed for an Aj lynch before, and seemed to suggest it was related to his activity level.

[Kdub]

VOTE: AJ

So you think AJ will flip town? Really?

Why should I vote HKC over AJ?

So yeah. Hkc will flip scum.

Why are you more confident in HKC than in AJ?

Cause AJ hasn't done anything scummy and hkc hasn't done anything townie

At this point in the game, I think it is fair to say that those who have not done anything town should be under suspicion. What has AJ done that is clearly town? What has HKC done that is clearly scum? You seem to have a level of conviction that is not merited by the evidence you have put forward.

These are the posts where you vote Aj and suggest that he is scum. No reason is given until 1402, where you seem to be saying that you suspect Aj because he hasn't done anything town. So now that we know he was inactive because of RL stuff, why do you still read that slot as scum?

[Kdub]

i know i'm answering someone else's question, but since it's based on what i think is a misinterpretation anyway, those are my thoughts

Well, you gave more of an answer than Aegor did, even though the question was directed at him.

If anyone strongly believes that Mac or AJ is town, please make your case. At this point,

I fail to see any reason whatsoever to let two slots that have produced nothing of substance

(or, in Mac's case, a defense of scum and nothing else except unexplained flip-flopping on the Day 1 HS)

by Day 3 live

.

This suggests that my interpretation of Aegor's Aj-scumread is accurate, doesn't it?

[Kdub]

These are the posts where you vote Aj and suggest that he is scum. No reason is given until 1402, where you seem to be saying that you suspect Aj because he hasn't done anything town. So now that we know he was inactive because of RL stuff, why do you still read that slot as scum?

I do not

know

anything other than AJ replaced out for what I assume are RL reasons. That tells me nothing about the reason for his inactivity earlier in the game. Moreover, I see no reason to wait this long if RL has been preventing activity since the start of the game. Finally, one can be generally inactive and yet still post constructively, which AJ has not done.

I suppose this is consistent with your stance on Aj, not that it was ever particularly clear though.

the second part of the post calls my claim into question, but he approaches it from an "antihero is fakeclaiming a guilty as town", not that i'm fakeclaiming scum 1v1ing a claimed town PR. i don't have a meta of doing this, so that's a really weird way of approaching the claims. it's like he already knows the alignments.

Is he saying you are fakeclaiming as town though? I didn't get that at all from reading that post, and I had to read it twice to see where he could have implied that. If there's anything wrong with that post, it's more that he's trying to play both sides (attacking SMP, but also casting doubt on you), maybe in case there's an opportunity to turn the SMP wagon around.

Well we're neighbours, so there's that.

You started the game as neighbors with Muffin's slot?

UNVOTE:

[Kdub]

Oh, I misunderstood. OK then, I should rephrase: Mac, you started the game as neighbors with Aj's slot?

[Kdub]

AJ: People are expecting a lot of posts from me and I am busy and don't give a hoot, my claim could save me anyway, so *nyah!*

Aj posted this (or something along these lines) unprompted? Obviously I don't have the exact words, but this gave me bad vibes.

Did you two claim to each other in the neighborhood?

[Kdub]

the comment you made about "proving one of is town" for some reason sends shivers up my spine and I feel like your lack of participation is an effort to be as anti-town as possible. Also you not being more suspicious of your neighbor feels weird as fuck. This game is sucking the life out of me

Do you think Mac should be more suspicious of Aj/SG just on general principle, or because something involving their interaction in the neighborhood (based on what we know)? I disagree with the former, possibly agree with the latter.

AJ: People are expecting a lot of posts from me and I am busy and don't give a hoot, my claim could save me anyway, so *nyah!*

Aj posted this (or something along these lines) unprompted? Obviously I don't have the exact words, but this gave me bad vibes.

Did you two claim to each other in the neighborhood?

What was posted in the thread has been fairly clearly expressed by me with no adjustment other than paraphrasing. It is what it is.

I personally think he was just talking the neighbor thing or something - or maybe it was a weird test of Mac. I dunno.

Mac, is SG's paraphrase accurate? I'm curious why this wouldn't have gotten your attention at all.

scumread on kdub is back with a vengeance

Cool story

BRO

Anti

[Kdub]

You should always be suspicious of your neighbor unless you are confirmed town to each other which rarely happens.

Given the frequency of town/town neighbor pairings, I'd say you shouldn't suspect your neighbor more than any other random player in the game, and possibly less.

Mac, is SG's paraphrase accurate? I'm curious why this wouldn't have gotten your attention at all.

Obviously it got my attention, but I'm not really caring about his role, more his alignment. Maybe he was checking if I'd kill him? Who knows!

Meanwhile, are you going to do anything substantial?

"Who knows"...well the point is that you are in a position to know more, and you didn't care enough to. If my neighbor says to me, "I'm busy, I don't care, and my claim will save me if it comes to it," you can bet I'm going to have some follow-up questions. TBH I find both you and Aj's behavior regarding that exchange to be strange. I'm trying to decide whether strange == scummy.

Last sentence is fair since I haven't been too into this game, but LOL considering the source.

[Kdub]

I kinda just want to sheep confirmed town-BRO at this point, but he's not doing much either.

I looked at Aj/SG/Mac ISOs again, and didn't have any big revelations. I still thought Aj's D1 stuff felt town, and his lack of activity later seems understandable due to RL stuff. SG has been OK so far. The biggest issues I see are Mac accusing SG of misrepping his lack of activity in her summary of the neighborhood (which SG responded to and Mac hasn't countered yet), and Aj basically saying "I don't care about this game, my claim will save me anyway" and Mac just accepting that (which is weird, but I don't see obvious scum motivation either way). I'd probably pick SG as town between the two of them if it came down to it.

VOTE: HKC

Every time I start suspecting Aegor because he makes some bad posts, he says something that gives me a gut town feel. Then he makes more bad posts and I start suspecting him again. Hate his HKC vote here, just like I've hated a lot of his vote hops this game.

I'm thinking one scum in Aj/Mac, the other in HKC/Aegor, with an outside chance of Muffin-scum and a very very outside chance of Jake/Anti as scum.

VOTE: Aegor for now, at least until Mac gets here and he and SG figure out who's misrepping what.

[Kdub]

He also hasn't posted since I said what I said. So, it's not like he's dodging per se', so why are you calling him out on it?

Also, with Aegor/HKC as one possible pair, what made you choose Aegor over HKC considering the current wagon activity?

I'm not "calling him out"? I said he hasn't addressed it, which is true, so I'm interested to see his response. I'm not saying he's scum because of it.

I've consistently felt worse about Aegor than HKC all game, primarily because of his vote hopping and lack of justification for it.

[Kdub]

What should my line of questioning have been here then, superman? "wat iz ur role" does not qualify as a question.

"Why are you being deliberately antitown?" might have been a nice start, or "explain yourself" or something along those lines. Definitely not just ignoring it altogether.

Nice discredit in the last line.

Both of those were entirely pointless questions just covered, and it looks like you're just asking things in an effort to look like you're doing something.

My discredit is accurate. Last quote is hypocritical since you cherry-picking quotes to paint me as scummy is pretty much exactly the thing you are accusing me of.

[Kdub]

kdub, the aegor wagon isn't likely to happen. time to join the HKC wagon

I'd prefer Mac to HKC if there's still interest there, but I'll get behind an HKC lynch if that's the most viable option. Really, any flip of SG/Mac/Aegor/HKC would be useful IMO.

[Kdub]

so what are you waiting for? people to not vote aegor?

i feel like you're milling around because you don't want people to think you're overeager scum.

3 days left, I'm not scrambling to climb aboard a deadline wagon just yet.

I'll ask the same question about Aegor that you asked about me. Does anyone think Aegor is town? I'm interested to know who will defend him and on what basis.

KDub and Mac are definitely not both town. Just saying.Just saying.

Did you come to this conclusion based on our last exchange? Explain please. Feels like you are trying to set up another lynch if one of us flips town.

[Kdub]

@Kdub - what's the Aegor case again? How do you feel about the Mac wagon?

To answer your second question first, I'm fine with a Mac wagon, and would vote him if it came down to Mac vs. HKC. I will admit that Aegor's recent posts (possibly trying to set up a chain lynch between me/Mac, then voting him) give me some pause.

As for your first question...

VOTE: Jake

^You see how terrible this vote is? Now look at Aegor's ISO and realize that stuff like this isn't a one-off thing, it's been a constant throughout the game.

Did you come to this conclusion based on our last exchange? Explain please.

Feels like you are trying to set up another lynch if one of us flips town

.

Yes.

You bolded the wrong part, and you didn't explain anything. Unless you are admitting that you are simply trying to set up my/Mac's lynch on future days?

[Kdub]

Kdub - I'm challenging you now to make a compelling argument for aegor scum. Explain how they make sense with smp.

Why does Aegor

not

make sense with SMP? He flip-flopped on him D1. On D2 he was on the SMP wagon, but given that SMP was strongly suspected the previous day and Anti came out with his claim fairly early, it seems like a reasonable bus opportunity.

I've seen other Aegor games. This does not feel unusual in the grand scope of his playstyle. Now, I suppose we could debate whether it's a good playstyle, sure, but I think you're making a really shallow case here that is, functionally, no better than an RVS vote. Yeah, he might flip scum - but you aren't showing any real evidence to suggest he's scum, so why are you so attached to that vote?

...

You bolded the wrong part, and you didn't explain anything. Unless you are admitting that you are simply trying to set up my/Mac's lynch on future days?

The second one. I definitely bolded the right part.

Do you think both are town? I cannot see that happening, so I say we just lynch Mac today and lynch AJ tomorrow if Mac flips town.

I'll be honest, I am sucking this game. I am not strongly confident in any single scum read. I'm quite comfortable with my town reads on Jake and Anti, and BRO is confirmed town. Everyone else, I wouldn't be too surprised either way. Aegor is the only player who I have more than minimal suspicion of because his voting patterns and lack of explanations are anti-town. I see no town motivation in this behavior, and the fact that he's continued to do it is on all of us for not holding him accountable. SG, if stuff like the above is Aegor's typical play, and if he's getting away with it all the time as either alignment, then the site meta is worse off than I ever imagined.

I was sorta OK with Mac up until his posts today, but I'm not going to vote him until he at least has a chance to respond.

[Kdub]

But aegor flip flopped on a lot of people. Even in the other game i played with him. So the flip flopping alone isn't good enough IMO

My statement that Aegor was flip-flopping on SMP was a response to your implication that he couldn't be scum with SMP, not the reason why Aegor is scummy. Again, why can't he be scum with SMP? If you can point out some concrete reasons, maybe I can more easily address the issue you have with that potential scum pairing.

What do you think about Aegor still trying to policy lynch people on D3 or set up chain lynches involving me/Mac/SG?

And what's your read on muffin

Mild town read on Muffin at the moment based on his play so far. I don't support his lynch today.

There is nothing to hold me accountable for. I have been clear about why Mac and the AJ slot are both good lynches. You act as if other players are providing solid cases that I am ignoring in favor of shitvotes. That is simply not true: I have yet to see what I would consider a case more compelling or thorough than my case on Mac. You are more than welcome to point me in the direction of one if you disagree.

Sure, you can point to some of your votes that you have justified, but shall I quote the multitude of other ones that were not? The most recent example was your vote on Jake, which you basically straight up said was a policy lynch.

Part of the problem is that some players decided that it would be a good idea to shitpost for like 30 pages, reducing motivation to slog through anything other than the end-of-day wagons.

No argument from me here.

[Kdub]

Sure, you can point to some of your votes that you have justified, but shall I quote the multitude of other ones that were not?

Why? I never denied their existence. More important, their existence is of no consequence.

The most recent example was your vote on Jake, which you basically straight up said was a policy lynch.

What is the problem, exactly?

1) This feels like a "I always play this badly" defense.
2) The problem is that you don't want to lynch someone because you think they are scum, you want to lynch them just because you don't like them. That is not pro-town.

[Kdub]

I will read the last few pages properly in a few hours, but just a few quick thoughts:

Mac's claim makes flavor sense, and I can buy his reasoning for protecting BRO, but I'm more curious why he wouldn't protect anyone on N1.

Might as well just get this out of the way since some people (e.g. Anti) already got the wrong idea about my "softclaim". I'm Alex, VT. I stalled on my claim D1 because 1) claiming wouldn't have saved me, 2) HS had claimed VT, so the consequence of me being wrong would just be that another VT gets lynched (if HS claimed a PR, I probably would have just claimed truthfully), and 3) I thought scum might take it as a vengeful softclaim and try to buddy me. I kinda got this feeling from sangres based on his end of D1/start of D2 posts, which I hinted at here:

I thought sangres's reason for moving off of me and onto HS yesterday was interesting. I might have some things to say about it later on if the issue arises, but for now, I'll give them a tentative town read based them coming right out and clearing BRO today.

but obviously they were town for other reasons, so nothing came of that.

[Kdub]

1) Naked votes are not bad. Having nothing but naked votes is bad.
2) The point of policy lynches is that they are pro-town regardless of the target's alignment. There is a fallacious assumption in your argument that the only pro-town lynches are on scum.

1) Does nothing to counter my point. Naked votes are not

always

objectively bad, but they're pretty much always worse than justified votes. Again, this feels like a self-meta defense.
2) Why is lynching Jake pro-town? Just because he annoys you doesn't make him a liability.

Mac's probly town, this is a terrible lynch

Intent.

wat

Cherry picking suggests I'm running through your ISO and only picking quotes which suit me. I'm picking up on your reaction to me outing the neighbourhood, which was weak as hell. Tell me, do you think your questions were worthwhile?

I read your post wrong and thought you were neighbors with Muffin at first, then I realized my mistake and corrected myself. And then I wanted to know what information either of you may have had on the other from the neighborhood. The first is arguably useless since it was a mistake, but it's weird that you attacked me for something so trivial. The second was worthwhile because if you two had claimed, there would have been follow-up questions about whether you believed each other and why.

God, you really are scum. Why would the flips of each be "useful", assuming at least 2 of those 4 are town?

Uh, the same reason that the flip of any suspected player is useful?

@Anti - serious question. Why would Mac fakeclaim a Miller in his roleclaim?

It could be in his safeclaim. Phacia as a miller makes flavor sense, and I wouldn't be surprised if bork gave scum a miller safeclaim. With that said, I don't think town

must

claim miller on D1, although that tends to be the typical meta nowadays. The miller aspect doesn't move me one way or the other too much. I'm more curious about why Mac didn't protect on N1. You are likely to get off an extra action by using a non-consecutive role as often as possible, so why not do that?

[Kdub]

Mac claimed non-consecutive who protected on N2, so he couldn't confirm tonight even if he wanted to.

[Kdub]

I can check in for the next hour or two, then I'll be gone until after the deadline. If Aegor can't happen today, I can accept Mac/HKC/SG.

Muffin, what is the case on SG? I've felt mostly OK with her thus far.

[Kdub]

Eh, I guess I don't have the same meta knowledge of AJ/SG that you do to see what you see.

[Kdub]

I remember feeling OK about AJ on D1, then his activity dropped off after that and he made some questionable posts on D2 about Anti/SMP. Didn't think much of his slot after that. I agree with Muffin that SG has acted somewhat diplomatically, but I don't find it scummy and I've never played with her before.

Mac, you still around? Why didn't you use your protect on N1?

[Kdub]

I'm just kinda shooting in the dark here.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: HKC

Not terribly confident, but I feel a little better about this than a SG lynch. I'll be on for another half hour or so if something else comes up.

[Kdub]

I could be wrong about Aegor, he had every reason to park his vote on SG yesterday and wait for Jake or someone else to cave and hammer her.

Right now, I'm leaning toward either Mac or Muffin. I need to reread Muffin a bit today.

Muffin, what are your thoughts in light of HKC's flip?

[Kdub]

that we should mass claim today

Didn't we already do this yesterday?

[Kdub]

I think everyone has claimed except you and maybe SG?

me - VT
Aegor - VT
Muffin/mastin - VT
Jake/penguin - self-watcher
Mac - neighbor/miller/non-consecutive doctor
SG - neighbor/???
BRO - ???

Oh wow. My stance was clear on HKC; I thought their "Mac's probably town" and then intent to hammer was a scummy as fuck move, and clearly I was right. I unvoted to try and work with my strongest townreads who were not on HKC. Meanwhile, you tiptoed around the HKC wagon, voted SG and then hammered for what looked to me and SG like a blatant attempt at towncred once you realised the wagon wasn't going to go through.

Obviously the wagon was not going to go through. HKC was at L-1 without my vote and SG was at L-2 with my vote. Why would I stay on SG with the deadline looming? That makes no sense whatsoever.

Actually they were both at L-1 with you voting SG.

I'd be OK with letting Mac confirm himself on penguin tonight. If penguin confirms the ability and someone dies, then Mac is cleared. If penguin confirms the ability and nobody dies, it could be that Mac is scum with some other ability, but it's hard to imagine what that would be. I doubt there are multiple roleblockers in the game, and in terms of balance, I have a hard time seeing scum with a roleblock in addition to a role cop given the town power.

[Kdub]

SG, just to confirm, you are a neighbor and nothing else?

Can people claim flavor as well?

[Kdub]

Claiming flavor is useless because bork provides flavor fakeclaims for all scum. I would know, I was SK in his last game.

Alternatively, claiming flavor can't hurt. I also have an idea how bork uses his fakeclaims since I backup modded the game you are referring to, and I think flavor information is potentially (though not necessarily) useful.

Regardless of what happens today, BRO cannot last until lylo. He must be lynched before then in case he is a GF or something, which will mess up town psych in lylo.

Remember yesterday when I said I sometimes get a town feel from Aegor, then he makes some bad posts that make me scumread him again? Yeah, this is one of those bad posts.

Aegor, what do you think about the HKC wagon yesterday and who it likely clears/implicates?

The main reason why I think mastin/Muffin might be scum is because Muffin was pushing for an SG lynch over HKC yesterday. I said I would reread him a bit, and I'll try to get to that over the next day or so, but that was my recollection. Also, he had a lot of self-meta defense of his D2 play, which maybe is accurate, but rubbed me the wrong way a bit.

[Kdub]

Am I correct in inferring from your posts this game that you no longer think that AJ/Mac necessarilycontains scum?

Yeah, not necessarily. The end of D3 and HKC's subsequent flip made me feel better about SG, and Mac can potentially prove he isn't scum tonight.

Why don't you start the claim and then popcorn it then? I'm already bored of this side conversation and would love claims to happen and it to end so I can see if you're doing anything with it, or just trying to look like you are.

I already claimed Alex. Popcorn to you.

Muffin's play yesterday was very focused on the idea of 1 scum/1 town for the neighborhood. He was not alone in this, honestly I seem to recall you being of a like mind.

The problem I have with Muffin isn't that he thought the neighborhood was 1 scum/1 town, it was that he pushed for your lynch over known scum. Looking at his iso, he says very little about HKC throughout the game.

[Kdub]

Interesting, I guess you expect me to flub it or something?

Flavor Claim: Jessica D’Alkirk. I'm a neighbor because I talk to people at the shrine I live at.

Popcorn To: Aegor

Actually, you were really the only person I was interested in getting a flavor claim from because of who Mac already claimed. I'll say more about that later, but the fact that you were told why you are a neighbor is interesting.

Mac: Does your role PM say why you are a neighbor?

I will agree he did that...but that was because he was advancing the 1 scum in the neighborhood thing. You did...pretty much the same thing. You did mention HKC a lot...but it was mostly to keep listing the people you would prefer to lynch instead of HKC. Should we be suspecting you for the same reasons you're suspecting Muffin?

Suspect me for whatever you want, but they're not the same reasons. The fact that you were a direct counterwagon to HKC near the deadline while Mac was not is a key factor.

[Kdub]

Yes, I'm a neighbor at the shrine where I'm starting a new life, having turned my back on my sisters. I'm a miller because people still recognize me as one of them, and I'm a doctor because I've been rewarded by Althena with some of her power for defecting from the others.

OK, sounds plausible. I wanted SG to claim flavor to see if her character made sense with Phacia as a neighbor. Phacia/Jessica initially struck me as a strange neighborhood pairing. I'd bet pretty heavily that the final scum is Ghaleon, and if he were a neighbor, he would probably make more sense with Phacia. However, that would require that Mac's flavor explanation (assuming he is town in this case) match up with SG's fakeclaim flavor, AND allow for whatever flavor reason bork used to justify putting Ghaleon as his neighbor as well. I admit it's speculative on my part, but in terms of flavor and what I suspect bork would do, it does seem to make more sense for both of them to be town.

Anyway, I'm not really interested in other's flavor claims, but just for completeness, my role PM just says I'm a regular kid from Burg who suddenly became a dragonmaster, and I vow to overcome trials for the honor of my hometown.

mastin, I read your VCA, but a lot of your comments are just that certain VCs are "interesting" or something of the sort without further explanation. Can you summarize the VCs that you thought were most important and what those tell you about current players?

[Kdub]

Aegor's hammer on HKC actually struck me as townish, because if he had parked his vote on SG instead, it's pretty likely that deadline pressure would have made Jake or someone else switch their vote. I've had problems with Aegor for other reasons, but that particular move seemed probably town.

At this point, I think it's down to mastin or Aegor for today's lynch.

[Kdub]

Agree with Mac confirming himself tonight.

Known scum = HKC, in the sense that we know now (after their flip) that they were scum. I'm leaning toward the mastin slot for just that reason. If Muffin was scum, he would have been trying to get SG lynched over his buddy yesterday.

[Kdub]

Yet Aegor delivered the hammer. Kdub's vote was just a "shot in the dark"--the type of vote easily removed. Aegor's was a hammer vote, which if he was scum would leave him alone.

My HKC vote was my last opportunity to post before the deadline (I believe I indicated as such), so there was no chance I could remove that vote even if I wanted to.

The rest of your case seems like you're starting with a goal of looking for reasons to call me scum and then trying to look for interpretations of things to fit that conclusion. Your case lacks anything I can directly respond to because it has very little to do with me and a lot to do with people who are now dead.

Basically, if I were sheeping the names of trusted town players, I'd be voting Mac, but since I'm following my own self right now and I feel like we're in game-winning mode, I'm voting for kdub. I think this plan even works if you suspect me to be the last scum and lynch me first. But I need to run the exact setup math to figure it out for surez. Basically, I THINK we've got it won, 'specially if you sheep me, but I'm not absolutely sure about that.

Can you explain how you think we've got it won? If you assume Mac clears himself tonight, town can't go into the final day with more than one "confirmed" player, meaning the final day would include two out of me/you/Aegor/SG. If lynching me today or tomorrow somehow ensures that scenario is a town win, I'd accept that, but I don't see how you are getting that.

[Kdub]

What is the case on Mastin?

It's mostly based on POE and zMuffin's behavior with regard to the wagons on you/HKC yesterday. mastin himself hasn't been particularly town or scum.

I'm not exactly sure about the math, so I could be wrong and it's objectively only a 50/50, but I think it's possible to do better. As I said, still crunching the numbers.

I'm not sure how there can be any serious "number crunching" when it's 50/50, but I await your explanation.

I don't mind too much to be today's lynch if mastin and Aegor are next because I'm fairly confident it's one of them, and if I'm wrong, I don't feel like any of us three are likely to win a lylo against SG-scum or penguin-scum. Either way, it probably doesn't change much, but I'd prefer to lynch someone who I know has a chance of flipping scum today.

[Kdub]

zMuffin's behavior with regard to the wagons on you/HKC yesterday

What are you seeing there? I didn't see anything that twigged me much one way or t'other from him.

I explained this in 2002, and you disagreed. I'm a bit puzzled why you asked me this again.

VOTE: Aegor

Leaving it up to penguin to decide the lynch. I'd probably prefer mastin over Aegor tbh, but it's clearly either me or Aegor today and I know Aegor at least has a chance to flip scum.

[Kdub]

Is anyone else up for a mastin lynch? I'd go for it if we could get another.

[Kdub]

Why don't you move your vote to mastin and actually press her, instead of only offering to if others will follow?

If the support isn't there for a mastin lynch, then my vote would be pointless. Like I said, I have no issue with mastin's play. I'm just going by the evidence of his predecessor's actions, which he can't really answer for.

In the meantime, I'll doc penguin tonight but I'm meh about it all really.

If you don't protect penguin tonight and have him confirm your action, you die tomorrow. The risk/reward of you doing anything else just doesn't make sense.

[Kdub]

BRO, why are you voting me?

[Kdub]

BRO, why are you voting me?

PoE

How are Aegor and mastin cleared?

[Kdub]

And, like, mastin isn't cleared, but I have a town read on the slot.

If it's just that you read Aegor/mastin as more likely town than me, fine. I just don't want you to think they are cleared for future days in case I'm lynched today, which is what I initially thought from your PoE comment.

Just waiting for penguin and charizard to decide on today then.

[Kdub]

Deadline is in 1 day, 18 hours, 59 minutes

Tick tock.

Mod: Is it possible to get extra time since a replacement was needed so close to the deadline?

[Kdub]

Why do you have such little interaction with Hello Kitty?

Their posting style turned me off, plus I had a bit of a town read on them early on so I didn't feel the need to question them that much.

[Kdub]

@kdub:

Your read goes from Seems town to scum in a weird sequence. I don't remember you even explaining the scum read.

It was down to HKC and SG with deadline pressure, and I felt SG was town. I was not particularly confident in my HKC vote at that time, even though it ended up being right.

The Mac thing will sort itself out tonight. If penguin doesn't confirm his action, he dies tomorrow.

[Kdub]

If they are both scum then Kdub is obviously a PR while Aegor is a goon or a lesser PR.

I'm not sure how you're coming to this conclusion...

If there's nothing I can say to convince you otherwise, please lynch Aegor/mastin in the next couple days (assuming Mac clears himself).

[Kdub]

Thanks for the game bork