NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Porochaz]

Im going to be LA for the weekend.

[Yosarian2]

Vote:VitaminR

Hi Yos!

Hi.

Do you think you know why I'm voting you?

[Sotty7]

This is quite an interesting post. Sotty decides to not be a part of either of the two main wagons, citing a poor excuse this early in the game to vote. It's page 3. There is no bad reason to vote for someone at this stage. I don't exactly know why, but this post tripped me up a little bit.

Of course there are plenty of bad reasons to vote people even in the early game. Just because we're limbering out of the RVS a little earlier than I anticipated in this game, doesn't mean I should just swallow any kind of weak reasoning that gets floated out there to wagon. The only what I would call "good point" against either SSK or Tigris's so far has been PJ's note about how she laid off voting for the third person in her last newbie game. Although it would be nice to know how long ago that was. Everything else has felt like a stretch.

Reading Tigris response to PJ makes me feel even better about her now. It's all pretty reasonable.

Why Seoul?

Basically because he post felt a little forced and made no real attempt to figure out SSK's position. Your Chamber vote is pretty good though. The only thing I have agreed with so far with him was his criticisms of post #54.

Unvote, Vote: LoudmouthLee

I'm not a fan of any of the MafiaSSK votes on this page. Feels like a bunch of strong players going for an easy target. I especially don't like LML's #62, which nicely sets up a potential switch to the MafiaSSK wagon while maintaining a push on Tigris. Seems like something scum might do to make sure that two wagons keep momentum.

Agree.

ABR seems kinda relaxed, that probably makes him town.

[chamber]

Your Chamber vote is pretty good though. The only thing I have agreed with so far with him was his criticisms of post #54.

I've made like 3 points this game, and I'm pretty sure you've agreed with 2 of them, not 1.

[Glork]

VitR, what are your thoughts on petroleumjelly?

Like I said above, I was not charmed by the MafiaSSK vote (I was mostly referring to pj and Seol). Seemed like an easy, mostly theory-based vote. Why do you ask?

You voted LML specifically referencing his Post 62 in which you suggest that he's setting up the groundwork to switch from one wagon to the other. At the same time, you ignore that PJ did essentially the same thing, only by asking questions and using pretty formatting instead. It was an interesting contrast.

[VitaminR]

I don't think that's quite right, Glork. At least the way I read it, pj's post, and the subsequent votes, turned the MafiaSSK wagon into a major thing. That's a big difference. What I didn't like about LML's post is that it left him free to pursue two wagons with significant support behind them.

Hi.

Do you think you know why I'm voting you?

Nope, not at all.

[MafiaSSK]

Serious vote.

And would you like to elaborate on your motives?

unvote, Vote: undo

If you're going to pick up on any one thing in this discussion, that seems like a weird one.

Wait, how are you literally seeing anything scummy from that post? This looks like such a piss poor excuse for a vote.

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

My vote on MafiaSSK was not based solely on a theory disagreement, but his interactions with Tigris that lead to the "theory."

Tigris voted MafiaSSK for being the third vote on Glork. chamber and Glork then vote Tigris without explanation. MafiaSSK then votes Tigris in what seems to be a humorous, lighthearted post:

Coming from someone who didn't even join the almighty Glork wagon?

VOTE: Tigris

The conversation at this point involved a subtle appeal to majority (or "groupthink" as Seol suggests) that suddenly turns from playful to "theory":

...why would I join a bandwagon instead of choosing an alternative that I think may lead to more information on the first day?

Because bandwagons are guaranteed information especially at high vote counts. You choosing to go after someone different has in fact more potential to gain less information...

This is an over-the-top assertion. Where I would

expect

MafiaSSK to simply agree that Tigris not joining a page-two bandwagon is natural

or

to simply respond with a continuation in a lighthearted vein, he instead takes a rather indefensible theory position. I think this reflects a scum mindset ("shoot, now I have to make this sound good") over a Town mindset ("eh, I was mostly joking and voting you for pressure").

On a weaker note, MafiaSSK's Tigris vote also goes against his own theory somewhat because he silently unvoted Glork (then at six votes, the largest bandwagon) to vote for Tigris (placing a third vote). Why not stick to the "guaranteed information" by keeping Glork a higher vote count.

2.)

MafiaSSK, why do you think Tigris' vote on you was merely a "complete other RVS wagon"? Do you think there is no merit in the "third on the bandwagon" tell? At the very least it is not random.

3.)

MrBuddyLee, thoughts on Sotty7?

4.)

VitaminR, who do you think the "weak" players are in this game? And yes, I ask this question with the knowledge that you are unlikely to be making friends with your answer.

Also, if you were strictly limited to the first two pages of the game and placing a serious vote, who would you vote and why?

[Yosarian2]

Hi.

Do you think you know why I'm voting you?

Nope, not at all.

In that one post, you hard-defended SSK and implicity attacked everyone on his bandwagon (saying it looked like a , and attacked people for being on the tigras wagon, and voted LML for being on the tigras wagon and FOS's SSK. Without naming names other then LML, you hinted at a suspicion for the "strong players pushing the SSK wagon" (which, at the time, probably meant Seol and PJ, since they had made the real cases against SSK). You also implied that you thought that both tigras and SSK were town, without really explaining why.

Defending both SSK and tigras, the two leading bandwagons, and going after people like LML, PJ, and Seol all at once is an incredibly ballsy move, and I don't really see why you would stick your neck out like that so far, so early in the game, based on so little.

So my initial thought, reading your post, was that your behavior here would make the most sense if you're a scum who already knows SSK's and tigras's alignment.

[Yosarian2]

On a side note, I agree with a lot of what PJ is saying about SSK. That's part of the reason that VitimanR's hard-defense of SSK stuck out at me as a weird move; based on the evidence to that point, there really wasn't a good reason to defend SSK, as far as I can see. I can understand people not wanting to jump on the wagon right away, but going as far as to defend SSK just seems off.

[LoudmouthLee]

Of course you can find two people scummy. It's more about the fact that they seem like weak wagons to me and it seems convenient that those are your two suspects. It's a little bit too 'going with the crowd' for me and I don't remember you as that kind of player.

You're absolutely correct. I tend to shy away from group think. My random vote was on Tigris to begin with. After the

Third Vote Tell

bandwagon jumping, I decided that my vote was a good vote to keep there. With that being said, I since have found others to be scummy: moreso than Tigris, especially based on post 91. With that, I'll

Unvote: Tigris

Serious vote.

And would you like to elaborate on your motives?

unvote, Vote: undo

If you're going to pick up on any one thing in this discussion, that seems like a weird one.

Wait, how are you literally seeing anything scummy from that post? This looks like such a piss poor excuse for a vote.

This exchange makes me really uncomfortable. At every turn. I dislike Albert's lack of.. well... anything. He has not seem to be scumhunting whatsoever, and if he is, he is not sharing any analysis thus far. What's more telling, however, was Undo asking a legitimate question, and STD running to defend Albert's lack of substance. Strangely, MafiaSSK's response to Save The Dragon's post is similar to mine. There's something here, in this exchange, and I think I know where to start.

Vote: Save the Dragons

@Albert - Although my gut initially is to OMGUS you right away, I want to know why your first serious vote has been levied on me. Please explain.
@Undo - How did you feel about the previous wagons of MafiaSSK and Tigris?

[Albert B. Rampage]

People I'm willing to lynch:

Petrolumjelly
Glork
LoudMouthLee

People I think are town:

DGB
VitaminR
farside22

[Albert B. Rampage]

Serious vote.

And would you like to elaborate on your motives?

Wow I don't remember you at all.

[Save The Dragons]

Awwww yeah there's that terse, several paragraph posting I remember.

Wait, how are you literally seeing anything scummy from that post? This looks like such a piss poor excuse for a vote.

Why, I'm so glad you asked. Tbh I was waiting for undo to come back and say something but what the hell.

And now, STD presents: an abridged history of the game so far!
There was a wagon on Glork: I think this was just random.
There was a wagon on Tigris: against the rhetoric that 3rd vote on a wagon is scum.
There was a wagon on MafiaSSK: because of that third vote and post 45 and stuff
There was a wagon on Seol: because of (well, I like him for scum because of opportunistic wagon jumping. I'll get to this further.)

So that's 4 wagons. There's a lot of votes in between. Other stuff happens. And MafiaSSK says this:

When did Shanba sign up for this?

Any chance there could be an actual opinion coming from you, ABR?

FoS:ABR

That's an odd thing to say, considering this could possibly apply to several people in the game. I guess it depends on how satisfied you are with people saying things like "XXXX = townread," "not feeling XXX," and whether someone's vote would qualify as an opinion. To be fair, I suppose it would, but I wasn't thinking about that at the time. I was thinking about players like Dripping Goofball, Cogito Ergo Sum, that Save The Dragons jerkface, Untrod Tripod, etc, and of course just one posts people: MrBuddyLee, oh hey undo, who have given little to no explanation for their opinions.

It seemed to me like you were trying to stir the hornet's nest for some reason, but not commit to it. The jury is still out on you, but I think it unlikely you are scum for a reason I'll get to later.

Then undo comes along. He blazes over the (again to be fair, only 3 legitimate) wagons and his eyes narrow to the aforementioned post like a teenage boy starting at a pair of boobies and having the rest of the world just dissapear around him.

So why is his vote still in the RVS? Perhaps I just want him to elaborate on his motives.

Now here's the tricky part:

MafiaSSK (6) -- Tigris, Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly, Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons

(At least) one of this set { petroleumjelly, Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons }
is highly likely to be opportunistic mafia. You can toss LoudMouthLee in there for the FOS.

I started that list at petroleumjelly because it was his reasoning that seemed to get people on board, less so Tigris's. Thus that leaves Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons, and LoudMouthLee. I believe one of them is likely to be mafia.

Thus I would be down with lynching any one of those people. At this point of the game I will be willing to join any of these wagons.

But rather than just sit tight on Seol, I was kind of hoping to swing my sweaty vote around and put pressure on people because

Hmm...1 to 2 scum in a 22 person town just seems imba...

[Patrick]

Votecount

LoudmouthLee (3) -- DrippingGoofball, VitaminR, Albert B. Rampage
Tigris (4) -- Glork, MafiaSSK, MrBuddyLee, Untrod Tripod
Glork (1) -- CrashTextDummie
MafiaSSK (5) -- Tigris, petroleumjelly, Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons
DrippingGoofball (1) -- undo
Seol (4) -- Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber
chamber (1) -- farside22
VitaminR (1) -- Yosarian2
undo (1) -- Save the Dragons
Save the Dragons (1) -- LoudmouthLee

Not voting: Nobody
22 alive, 12 to lynch.

[undo]

@Undo - How did you feel about the previous wagons of MafiaSSK and Tigris?

MafiaSSK's wagon is solely based on his post 45, which doesn't look right to me either -- it seems to be advocating unanimism and discouraging a simultaneous search for multiple targets, something I strongly disagree with, especially in this stage of the game -- but for now I don't see more there than a polemic theoretical opinion.

Regarding Tigris, there's nothing scummy about him applying the old (albeit admittedly obsolete) "3rd vote" rule of thumb, so I dismiss Tigris's wagon as something fetched to get out of RVS.

To sum up, both wagons are 'meh' to me and I'd really rather look into other players (this should also address STD's disquiet).

And would you like to elaborate on your motives?

Wow I don't remember you at all.

Way to circumvent my question.

[Green Crayons]

I vaguely recall Albert playing in this manner until later on in the game, when he opens up.

[Green Crayons]

In that one post, you

<GC Edit: VitaminR>

hard-defended SSK and implicity attacked everyone on his bandwagon (saying it looked like a , and attacked people for being on the tigras wagon, and voted LML for being on the tigras wagon and FOS's SSK. Without naming names other then LML, you hinted at a suspicion for the "strong players pushing the SSK wagon" (which, at the time, probably meant Seol and PJ, since they had made the real cases against SSK). You also implied that you thought that both tigras and SSK were town, without really explaining why.

Defending both SSK and tigras, the two leading bandwagons, and going after people like LML, PJ, and Seol all at once is an incredibly ballsy move, and I don't really see why you would stick your neck out like that so far, so early in the game, based on so little.

So my initial thought, reading your post, was that your behavior here would make the most sense if you're a scum who already knows SSK's and tigras's alignment.

I like this post. Admittedly, my like is partially based on confirmation bias. That is, Yosarian's identifying Vitamin's laying the groundwork for suspicion of the "strong players" is what I was referring to back in Post 95. I found something off with Vitamin's criticism, and apparently I wasn't the only one.

However, I didn't make the leaps that Yosarian does in his second and third quoted paragraphs. However, I don't find them to be unreasonable.

I look forward to Vitamin's response to Yosarian's post, as well as to PJ's Post 107.

[DrippingGoofball]

MafiaSSK is town.

[chamber]

You can make links to specific posts using the

Code: Select all

[post]

tag.

Post 117
This is an example
117

Code: Select all

[post=117][/post]
[post=117]This is an example[/post]
[post]117[/post]

[Save The Dragons]

To sum up, both wagons are 'meh' to me and I'd really rather look into other players (this should also address STD's disquiet).

If this is true, why is your vote still on your choice of random vote?

Up until this point, your only opinion was that Albert should be more opinionated.

If anyone else is interested in turning the heat up on undo, let me know, otherwise I'm going back to Seol.

undo: vote: undo, redo: vote: Seol

wait, that's not right.

Unvote: undo, Vote: Seol

[chamber]

You've become a senile old man, time to switch to grey splinter.

[Save The Dragons]

Am I doing it right?

[Shanba]

Apologies if I mischaracterised your vote PJ, it simply appeared that way from your initial post. The more nuanced case you have is more interesting, but I still am not really seeing it - I disagree with the assertion

Where I would expect MafiaSSK to simply agree that Tigris not joining a page-two bandwagon is natural or to simply respond with a continuation in a lighthearted vein, he instead takes a rather indefensible theory position. I think this reflects a scum mindset ("shoot, now I have to make this sound good") over a Town mindset ("eh, I was mostly joking and voting you for pressure").

Although, come to think of it, it's not entirely clear what MafiaSSK was even talking about with those two quotes that you mentioned, since they dont seem to bear any logical train of thought

Tigris: Vote for third vote MafiaSSK: vote you for not being on glork Tigris: But I dont like bandwagoning and I think we can get more info elsewhere MafiaSSK: bandwagons give info

It doesn't make a ton of sense that he would think that Tigris should be wagoning for information because Tigris already said she disagreed with him so that can't be the reason for the vote.

Aha! I think I have it. The only way that makes sense is if you don't read it as an explanation for the vote, but as an answer to the question why should I bandwagon. That bears up with his next post where he explains
[quote = "MafiaSSK"]Way to misrep in that second quote, not at all what I was talking about. People do break off from wagons all the time, but when they do, it's because someone has done a legitimately scummy thing that you know you'll be able to gain information from. When you do as Tigris did and just start a complete other RVS wagon, while it still has the potential to gain information, you should be going for the larger wagon because that already has the steam building up behind it.[/quote]
which is way more reasonable and sensible than "I'm voting you for not bandwagoning". I don't really like the Tigris wagon either, tbh, but it's just weak because it's the first serious vote anyone placed and that's pretty much always going to be a weak vote and I think on balance it does make her infinitesimally more likely to be scum, but seriously whatever.

On that note, why is Glork on the Tigris wagon, apparently seriously, and no one has called him out on it? Does he agree with MafiaSSK's reasoning?

I'm not enthused by Yos2's entry into the game. Both wagons are scummy, vote this other guy for defending them. Mmm. That's a little simplified of course (and I'm not sure he thinks Tigris is scummy, to be fair).

[MafiaSSK]

1.)

My vote on MafiaSSK was not based solely on a theory disagreement, but his interactions with Tigris that lead to the "theory."

Tigris voted MafiaSSK for being the third vote on Glork. chamber and Glork then vote Tigris without explanation. MafiaSSK then votes Tigris in what seems to be a humorous, lighthearted post:

Coming from someone who didn't even join the almighty Glork wagon?

VOTE: Tigris

The conversation at this point involved a subtle appeal to majority (or "groupthink" as Seol suggests) that suddenly turns from playful to "theory":

...why would I join a bandwagon instead of choosing an alternative that I think may lead to more information on the first day?

Because bandwagons are guaranteed information especially at high vote counts. You choosing to go after someone different has in fact more potential to gain less information...

This is an over-the-top assertion. Where I would

expect

MafiaSSK to simply agree that Tigris not joining a page-two bandwagon is natural

or

to simply respond with a continuation in a lighthearted vein, he instead takes a rather indefensible theory position. I think this reflects a scum mindset ("shoot, now I have to make this sound good") over a Town mindset ("eh, I was mostly joking and voting you for pressure").

On a weaker note, MafiaSSK's Tigris vote also goes against his own theory somewhat because he silently unvoted Glork (then at six votes, the largest bandwagon) to vote for Tigris (placing a third vote). Why not stick to the "guaranteed information" by keeping Glork a higher vote count.

2.)

MafiaSSK, why do you think Tigris' vote on you was merely a "complete other RVS wagon"? Do you think there is no merit in the "third on the bandwagon" tell? At the very least it is not random.

3.)

MrBuddyLee, thoughts on Sotty7?

4.)

VitaminR, who do you think the "weak" players are in this game? And yes, I ask this question with the knowledge that you are unlikely to be making friends with your answer.

Also, if you were strictly limited to the first two pages of the game and placing a serious vote, who would you vote and why?

1.) Actually, yeah, it would make sense to blow it off with a joke and when I originally read that I could not come up with why I didn't. But I think it comes down to the influence of the current sitemeta and how it discourages such things.

But in regards to your weaker point, I've already addressed that question in my previous post and you can look at there for the answer.

2.) So I don't think, even when this was a thing, that anybody actually considered it that serious of a thing. It was a way to escape RVS, sure, but it was never expected to actually catch scum. I think it was the ending part of RVS, so it can still be defined as a completely other RVS wagon.

Hi.

Do you think you know why I'm voting you?

Nope, not at all.

In that one post, you hard-defended SSK and implicity attacked everyone on his bandwagon (saying it looked like a , and attacked people for being on the tigras wagon, and voted LML for being on the tigras wagon and FOS's SSK. Without naming names other then LML, you hinted at a suspicion for the "strong players pushing the SSK wagon" (which, at the time, probably meant Seol and PJ, since they had made the real cases against SSK). You also implied that you thought that both tigras and SSK were town, without really explaining why.

Defending both SSK and tigras, the two leading bandwagons, and going after people like LML, PJ, and Seol all at once is an incredibly ballsy move, and I don't really see why you would stick your neck out like that so far, so early in the game, based on so little.

So my initial thought, reading your post, was that your behavior here would make the most sense if you're a scum who already knows SSK's and tigras's alignment.

I wish I could find that smiley, but I agree with Yos2. This just makes sense. And I think it makes more sense than Tigrisscum at the moment so..

Unvote, Vote: VitaminR

MafiaSSK is town.

thanks DGB. Anything more you have to say to this game though?

PEdit: Shanba's line of thinking is good and I think it follows what I was thinking nicely.