Micro 374: Baby Enough Scum 8p - GAME OVER

[BBmolla]

Bins,

Mafia Doctor

, has been killed Night 1.

[BBmolla]

Votecount 2.00

Not Voting: Phallacy, Doogal121, Salamence20, DoritoPortal, tn5421, StupendousMan

Deadline: (expired on 2014-09-01 00:05:00)

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Doogal

Discuss

[Salamence20]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

[Phallacy]

kabooooom,

Mafia Goon

, has been lynched Day 1.

Night Deadline: (expired on 2014-08-17 21:00:00)

pff.

Bins,

Mafia Doctor

, has been killed Night 1.

VOTE: tn

[Phallacy]

Wait isn't no lynch optimal here?

UNVOTE:

[Not_Mafia]

Why now and not at 4p?

[Salamence20]

With a doc and no mafia left we lynch today, and pray for a protect, and then lynch/nolynch.

[Salamence20]

Fun Facts:

1. I havent lost a molla mod
2. I havent been anti-town in a molla mod
3. Bins is scum.

VOTE: Bins

All three of these are true btw

[Salamence20]

Let's see, we had three on Bins' wagon before lynching boom (Stupe, Sala, TN)
Bins was shot last night, meaning that those three are most likely town, because why shoot bins when we were going to speedlynch her tomorrow (I mean I was going too...).

That leaves NM, Phallacy, and Doogal.

NM I will never read correctly because I read him as emotionless when he posts (plus He got trolled good last game when he was framed by scum)
Phallacy is most likely town, based on that fight with Boom.
Doogal is scummy, and my best bet for SK today.

At this moment, I don't want to lynch anyone on Bins wagon.

So:
Not SK

Salamence
Stupe
TN
Phallacy
NM
Doogal

SK

If we are wrong today, I would say

Not SK

Salamence
Stupe
NM
Phallacy
TN
Doogal

Will reread and vote tomorrow

[Doogal121]

Hey yall,I'm still new at this, can somebody explain the advantages of voting NL at this point?

Right now I'm strongly suspicious of Sala for two reasons. One, the whole lets hunt SK thing yesterday still sits in my craw uncomfortably. Secondly, using level 1 WIFOM, and assuming that the optimal play for SK is to lay back, Sala is doing the exact opposite.

Sala, did you shoot Bins last night?

(Witholding my vote till the NL <> Lynch discussion)

[tn5421]

The advantages of voting NL today are slightly better than lynching today, because we get the same amount of actions either way but have higher chance of hitting scum tomorrow if we nolynch today.

Lynch today

5 town : 1 scum

Worst Case Scenario: (1/6 to get scum)
Lynch Doctor
Nightkill Town

3 town:1 scum

In a 3:1 situation it is best to no-lynch because fuck mylo.
No Lynch
Nightkill Town

2 town: 1 scum

The other possibility

No Lynch Today

Worst Case Scenario:

5 town : 1 scum
No lynch
Doctor Nightkill

4 town: 1 scum (1/5 to get scum)
Lynch Town
Nightkill Town

2 town: 1 scum

[tn5421]

With that being said...

VOTE: No Lynch

[tn5421]

If anything, the nightkill will tell us who ISNT scum, and since we can afford to miss one lynch, it's best to make our odds to hit scum better now rather than later.

I want to hear your opinions on this.

[Not_Mafia]

I'd prefer No lynching at (potential) 4p as with a lynch a successful doc protect can get us to Odds with the lynch we want and can give us 2 conf town in 5 players

[Doogal121]

I'm thinking NL today, hope for a doc protect, that gives us 2 conf townies...

If we lynch today, we might ML the doc and really screw ourselves. Even if we don't lynch them, a claim from them would get them killed overnight.

Arguments against this?

[StupendousMan]

I'd prefer No lynching at (potential) 4p as with a lynch a successful doc protect can get us to Odds with the lynch we want and can give us 2 conf town in 5 players

I like this idea best.

My gut reaction is that either Doogal or Phallacy is the SK, but I'm going to reread before I vote.

@Phallacy- Why did you vote TN at the start?

[Phallacy]

@Phallacy- Why did you vote TN at the start?

Because I strongly believe he's the SK. My partner thinks NL is better strategically though, and he's better at that kind of analysis, so I'm fine with that myself.

[StupendousMan]

Why do you believe that?

Also,
VOTE: Doogal

[Phallacy]

What's most importantly (aside from not having to fuck with ray-ray's broke ass no mo') is that the WCS tn suggests

slighty

favor town, but the BCS

overwhelmingly and crushingly

favors town. The SK's only hope is to go doc-hunting, and his odds are not good. Making random chance abuse scum is very good for the town.

caveat: no player may claim or crumb role information between now and LYLO. So fucking don't.

[tn5421]

What's most importantly (aside from not having to fuck with ray-ray's broke ass no mo') is that the WCS tn suggests

slighty

favor town, but the BCS

overwhelmingly and crushingly

favors town. The SK's only hope is to go doc-hunting, and his odds are not good. Making random chance abuse scum is very good for the town.

caveat: no player may claim or crumb role information between now and LYLO. So fucking don't.

You're also forgetting that more people = more chance for SK to miss the remaining Doctor.

The best case scenario is that we lynch SK today and win, or lynch scum tomorrow and win in the case of no-lynch today. For no-lynch today, best result is either no-kill due to protect or non-doctor-kill, preferably someone being universally scumread but is town dying.

[Phallacy]

You're also forgetting that more people = more chance for SK to miss the remaining Doctor.

I did not forget this.

Also when I discuss the BCS of a particular plan, you should assume that I do, in fact, mean the BCS of that plan. Obviously the BCS of any possible action is the SK's death, but no-lynching has a higher EV.

And yes, I understand that you agree with me.

[Salamence20]

VOTE: Doogal

Fuck no lynch.

[Salamence20]

Someone hammer plz.

[tn5421]

VOTE: Doogal