Mini 1604 -- Zodiac Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #419 (isolation #0) » Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:54 am

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Hai there. Sorry for getting here late (I was on V/LA). I would like to remind you that I am not a robot.

I'll make some time to catch up on this game tomorrow.
[i]Mgm laughed nervously, his cheeks flushing in the faintest of blushes. "Patrick... I only wanted to be with you... that's why I put the game to night, so Glork would get killed."[/i] - the heartwarming conclusion of Face to Face Mafia
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Post Post #444 (isolation #1) » Tue Sep 09, 2014 2:39 pm

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Only had time to skim, so the inspirational stuff will have to wait a little longer.

Dislike the Salamance wagon, I think he looks pretty decent here. The shepherd looks worse to me than the sheep here. I can see pro-town intent in trying to form a substantial wagon, but think Dry-Fit in particular is over-reaching in his suspicion of Sal.

Don't know how the Juls slot has managed to gather town reads. She seemed super passive to me (while lacking the up-frontness of other offenders like Elyse) and I particularly disliked the weak language when discussing the speed of the Salamance wagon. Aronis' play hasn't done much for me either. His read list coupled with his expressed lack of confidence rubs me the wrong way: Why bother compiling a list of everyone if you don't actually have reads to warrant making a list? And this might be a subjective tell, but the fancy formatting of the list screams "look at me, so super-town" to me. Total overkill for such a weak piece of contribution.

I agree with whomever said that Iecerint and at first glance I don't like him much. Gemini has also made small pings on the scumdar. I don't think it's time for compromise lynches yet, but if it comes to it, those are the options as I currently see them.

confirm vote
[i]Mgm laughed nervously, his cheeks flushing in the faintest of blushes. "Patrick... I only wanted to be with you... that's why I put the game to night, so Glork would get killed."[/i] - the heartwarming conclusion of Face to Face Mafia
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Post Post #483 (isolation #2) » Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:55 pm

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Why do you find my lack of posting scummy in particular, Gemini? Given that my entry was "town enough", it doesn't follow that you'd lump me in with Salamance as "not the most helpful when they've been posting". I could give you the song and dance about why I've lacked the energy to play mafia this week, but I don't want to bore you with my life story. That entire post of yours is supremely wishy-washy ("not entirely sold on Salamance", "Iece scummy for some reason", "probably scum between Elyse and Xayzeck") and your vote on me is more than a little baffling. Do you have any thoughts on Aronis?

In post 446, Gemini Blind wrote:Not sure this is helpful. You're deadset on Aronis?


My predecessor's vote happened to be on Aronis and I took ownership of that vote by confirming. What exactly don't you find helpful, wanting to lynch Aronis or being deadset on it? (I'm not)

Speaking of, Aronis is active elsewhere on site and needs more votes.
[i]Mgm laughed nervously, his cheeks flushing in the faintest of blushes. "Patrick... I only wanted to be with you... that's why I put the game to night, so Glork would get killed."[/i] - the heartwarming conclusion of Face to Face Mafia
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Post Post #489 (isolation #3) » Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:34 pm

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In post 250, Dry-fit wrote:My number 2 suspect would probably be PV. I really don't like that ToastyToast vote.

In post 305, Dry-fit wrote:I don't like naked votes. Also I don't like voting a player this far into the game who hasn't really provided content. You still haven't explained your vote.

In post 422, Dry-fit wrote:As soon as a counterwagon to him forms on PV, he immediately tries to play up PV's vote hopping. Which is not particularly alignment indicative expecially with the position PV was in at the time.

In post 465, Dry-fit wrote:4. Eagerness to jump on PV for vote hopping:
Salamence20 wrote:PV is votehopping.

Squirm baby squirm

This was at a time when PV was an emerging counterwagon to Sal. This looks like opportunism to me.


I fail to see why you consider this scummy from Salamance when you basically had the same criticism of PV. "Naked voting" and "vote hopping" are the same thing in my understanding. I further fail to see why you consider this opportunism on Salamance's part when PV was already an established scum read of his (and the recipient of his vote) prior to the vote hopping. I severely raise my eyebrow at the fact that you call PV's voting behavior "not particularly alignment indicative" in the context of a Salamance case when you grilled him about his voting behavior yourself.

The rest of your case (with the exception of maybe point 3) is hardly compelling either. I'm not willing to stick my neck out too far for Salamance because I'm not that passionate about my read on him, but I will note that his posting sounds sincere to me for the most part and that's not a quality I generally attribute to his scum play.
[i]Mgm laughed nervously, his cheeks flushing in the faintest of blushes. "Patrick... I only wanted to be with you... that's why I put the game to night, so Glork would get killed."[/i] - the heartwarming conclusion of Face to Face Mafia
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Post Post #492 (isolation #4) » Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:18 pm

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In post 483, CrashTextDummie wrote:Why do you find my lack of posting scummy in particular, Gemini?


I'd like a more specific answer to this. It's a fact that I hadn't posted for a couple of days. I'd like to know why you found that scummy. Did you think I was active lurking? Did you check my site activity? Why did you single me out and vote me for "lack of helpfulness"?

In post 484, Gemini Blind wrote:What are your thoughts on Xay and Elyse?


Similar read on both. Xayzeck's ISO is heavy on observations and questions and somewhat light on analysis and interpretation, which I tend to find problematic as a playstyle. Elyse has spend more time arguing with the likes of Xay, SC and PV than pushing cases, but she has a posting style that naturally reads town to me.

That said, both players have pushed (or are pushing) cases against Elyse/PV respectively I consider reasonable if not substantial enough to base a lynch on, which I'm willing to pass off as a symptom of the low energy in this game. Neither player has done anything blatantly scummy in my eyes.
[i]Mgm laughed nervously, his cheeks flushing in the faintest of blushes. "Patrick... I only wanted to be with you... that's why I put the game to night, so Glork would get killed."[/i] - the heartwarming conclusion of Face to Face Mafia
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Post Post #516 (isolation #5) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:21 am

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Hammer without a claim. Please lynch Aronis tomorrow. Please also make Dry-Fit answer to my last post addressed to him.

The fact that the mod has not processed Salamance's kill (assuming it's real) more than 12 hours after the fact would have warranted a deadline extension.
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Post Post #520 (isolation #6) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:52 am

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If it wasn't a hammer, I request a deadline extension and/or an Aronis speedwagon. Alternatively a Salamance fullclaim.
[i]Mgm laughed nervously, his cheeks flushing in the faintest of blushes. "Patrick... I only wanted to be with you... that's why I put the game to night, so Glork would get killed."[/i] - the heartwarming conclusion of Face to Face Mafia
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Post Post #521 (isolation #7) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:02 am

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In post 518, Dry-fit wrote:I'll get to your points about my case later but for now I'll say vote hopping is not the same as naked voting. A player could only place on vote in a day and it can be a naked vote.

Even if the reasoning is different, you were still criticizing the same vote. The way I read it, Salamance was offering his own interpretation of why the vote was problematic in direct response to you:

In post 250, Dry-fit wrote:My number 2 suspect would probably be PV. I really don't like that ToastyToast vote.

In post 285, Salamence20 wrote:PV is scum with toasty.

In post 305, Dry-fit wrote:I don't like naked votes. Also I don't like voting a player this far into the game who hasn't really provided content. You still haven't explained your vote.

In post 307, PeregrineV wrote:Been posting my thoughts. If you're looking for something in particular, you can ask.

In post 308, Dry-fit wrote:So you think the only thing I should look at to determine whether I like a vote or not is my read on the player it's on?

In post 309, Salamence20 wrote:PV is votehopping.

Squirm baby squirm


It's pretty clear that you were just using different words to scrutinize the same action. What you really need to address is how this was opportunism on Salamance's part and why you later called PV's voting behavior "not particularly alignment indicative".
[i]Mgm laughed nervously, his cheeks flushing in the faintest of blushes. "Patrick... I only wanted to be with you... that's why I put the game to night, so Glork would get killed."[/i] - the heartwarming conclusion of Face to Face Mafia
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Post Post #525 (isolation #8) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:50 am

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In post 522, Aronis wrote:It's L-1? Anyways, that shot was terrible. He deserves to die.


Calling Elyse "really, really, really town" after the shot had already been made and extrapolating from that that she was a terrible kill is incredibly disingenuous. You were as ambiguous about her as you were about most everyone else previous to Salamance making the shot and considering that you had no suspects to speak of, I'd like to know what you would have considered a good shot.
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Post Post #531 (isolation #9) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:10 am

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Deadline hits in thirty minutes and unless RedCoyote shows up in the next 15 minutes or so and announces a deadline extension, I'm dropping the hammer myself.

The fact that Salamance didn't claim with 2 hours to go makes me much less upset about him getting lynched.
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Post Post #534 (isolation #10) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:22 am

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vote: Aronis
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Post Post #557 (isolation #11) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:33 am

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In post 537, Salamence20 wrote:relations between xay and elyse make me think scum


Why?

In post 545, Aronis wrote:After looking over Xay/Elyse, I think there's a decent chance Xay is prob scum.


Why?

In post 538, Dry-fit wrote:You were right CTD.


Ironically enough, I'm not so sure about that anymore, at least as far as Salamance is concerned. I find his claim rather dubious, specifically the fact that he didn't claim with 2 hours to go until deadline. If he was actually a cop, I would have expected him to claim at a time when it was still actually feasible to build another wagon. That he then claimed immediately after the vote count reset seems to me like it's more of an excuse for keeping the daykill hidden, which indeed wildly contradicts his stance on the matter at the beginning of the game. I can technically understand the desire to hold the shot from a cop perspective, but the extent of the subterfuge is hard to swallow.

StrangerCoug, ToastyToast and Iecerint get townie points for their incredulity.
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Post Post #619 (isolation #12) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:14 am

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Nacho, why is Aronis town?

Dry-fit needs to address the issues I had with his Salamance push, since the scum flip doesn't change how I feel about them. I'm miffed that he hasn't addressed them already, given the additional 3 days we got yesterday.

Is there a case against PV other than "Salamance loves bussing"?

Still have bad feelings about Aronis, but I'm hesitant to go back to that well after the way D1 played out.

Clearly I should say more, but I have another game I desperately need to catch up on, so it'll have to wait.

vote: Dry-fit
[i]Mgm laughed nervously, his cheeks flushing in the faintest of blushes. "Patrick... I only wanted to be with you... that's why I put the game to night, so Glork would get killed."[/i] - the heartwarming conclusion of Face to Face Mafia
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Post Post #624 (isolation #13) » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:22 am

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In post 620, Nachomamma8 wrote:So I'm willing to discuss Aronis read when I get to a computer but I'm also pretty disappointed by your dry fit read.


Then we can discuss both your Dry-fit and Aronis read and maybe you'll get over your disappointment.
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Post Post #670 (isolation #14) » Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:10 pm

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I'm still alive, will do something tonight.
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Post Post #680 (isolation #15) » Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:34 pm

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Toasty, are you for real? You have one legitimate criticism of my play, I really am woefully undercontributing. The rest of your post is borderline nonsensical.

In post 668, ToastyToast wrote:1)With regards to Aronis town, innocent until proven guilty yo


"Innocent until proven guilty" is a profoundly silly statement to make in the context of mafia. That aside, there's a reason I asked this question of Nacho and not of you:

In post 564, Nachomamma8 wrote:thank god, for a minute there i thought we weren't gonna lynch scum today


It's a problematic post either way because it's the kind of smug and smart-ass I associate with scum play, but if he can't back it up with a well reasoned Aronis town read, I'd consider it strongly indicative of Nacho-scum. It's a week later now and he still hasn't backed it up, so yeah.

Toasty wrote:2) Sorry but you are wrong about the Salamance push. Idk why you think Dry-Fit is scum.


His Salamance push looks to me like a hard bus followed by a 180 when he claimed and a subsequent backpeddal, but I'll get to this in a seperate post.

Toasty wrote:4) wishy washy on Aronis but also asking people why they have townreads on him (when he doesn't have a strong opinion one way or another)


My stance on Aronis is not wishy washy. He was a strong scum read yesterday and he's a less strong scum read today. Asking people for reads and for them to explain their reads is the bread and butter of scum hunting and you can't be seriously suggesting that it's scummy.

What's your read on Nacho?
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Post Post #683 (isolation #16) » Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:27 am

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In post 682, Dry-fit wrote:Believe me I'm not a good enough player that I can bus the shit out of my buddies and win as scum. Also you think I speifically bussed my buddy who had the dayvig, when scum was planning to use it to win in lylo? I mean if scum don't have daytalk they may not have known about it, but if they do it wouldn't make much sense to bus Sal and ruin their own plan.


It's true that scum knowing/not knowing Salamance had the dayvig is a pretty significant distinction and that bussing would have been strongly discouraged if they have daytalk.

In post 636, Dry-fit wrote:I tried to address it in my first post of the day. The only thing I can really add is that in general I just don't find vote hopping scummy. I've also seen scum attack vote hopping many times as a way to manufacture a case. Naked voting I do find scummy. I don't see why this is a problem. I think there were good reasons to attack PV for his vote, but also illegetimate reasons to do so.


The problem is that I don't think Pere was vote hopping by whatever definition you are applying (he did switch his vote around, but not excessively so). He was vote hopping only in the sense that he didn't justify his votes (aka "naked voting") , which could be construed as switching votes for the sake of switching votes. And in context, I think it's clear that's what Salamance was trying to insinuate.

Dry-fit: "Pere is naked voting, I think that's scummy".
Salamance: "I agree, he's vote hopping".
Dry-fit: "What an opportunistic thing to say!"

That's how I read the situation. It's not natural to me that you would reach the conclusion that Sal was opportunistic in his push against Pere because it's completely normal and expected for a player of either alignment to egg a developing wagon on that they were trying to push for a significant amount of time. I also still have trouble wrapping my head around you calling Pere's voting behavior "not alignment indicative". Even with the distinction that vote hopping isn't scummy but naked voting is, I find that statement to be inconsistent.

I will grant that "vote hopping is a scummy accusation (in any context)" is a valid reason for you to suspect Sal, but I maintain that I think you were over reaching in your push against him.

One other thing I'd like addressed from you:

In post 568, Dry-fit wrote:Yeah, I misanalyzed the situation.


How exactly did you misanalyse the situation? You were the strongest proponent of a Salamance lynch and you specifically attacked him for his early game dayvig discussion, so I find it dubious that you bought his claim so easily.
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Post Post #684 (isolation #17) » Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:38 am

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I think StrangerCoug and Iecerint are solidly town, the former for dismissing Sal's claim outright, the latter for organically reaching the same conclusion.
I think ToastyToast and Pere are decently town, the former for his general reaction to Sal's claim, the latter for overall interaction with Sal.

Process of elimination leaves Aronis, Nacho, Dry-Fit, Xayzeck as scum candidates. Xay hasn't done anything significantly scummy to my knowledge. Dry-Fit and Aronis I don't think are scum together. I'm pretty sure that makes Nacho the best lynch.

unvote, vote: Nacho


Speaking of, what do you make of Nacho's naked vote on me, Dry-fit?
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Post Post #687 (isolation #18) » Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:00 am

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In post 685, Dry-fit wrote:I believed him because killing Elyse was just bad scum play. Elyse was a player who seemed likely to be mislynched at some point in the game. And it wasn't like Elyse would be obvtown after Sal flipped scum. It was such a protown kill that I thougt it had to come from town.


I don't think that's at all consistent with what you said at the time:
In post 518, Dry-fit wrote:I'm pretty sure Salamence is scum if Elyse is town.

In post 535, Dry-fit wrote:I still want Salamence lynched really.


At least your immediate response wasn't that it was "such a protown kill".

In post 685, Dry-fit wrote:That combined with his cop claim made me think it was more prudent to let Sal live at least one night to get a result.


And that's not consistent with what you said at the time either:

In post 538, Dry-fit wrote:You were right CTD.


That's not "let him live one night at least", that's a complete 180 of your read on him.

What it is consistent with is a scumbuddy committed to a bus to such a degree that he couldn't reasonably back down, who jumped at the opportunity to do so when it looked like Salamance had saved himself with a fake claim.
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Post Post #688 (isolation #19) » Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:01 am

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In post 685, Dry-fit wrote:I don't like it of course. I also don't like that he won't engage me on my Aronis read when he has me as such a strong townread.


Are you going to do anything about it?
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Post Post #695 (isolation #20) » Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:12 am

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In post 694, Nachomamma8 wrote:I think the "oh he hasn't expressed an Aronis read" bit is a bad attack: I almost was replaced, you almost were replaced, that means we haven't been around that much lately and thus the reason I haven't been talking about Aronis reads is probably because I haven't had time to talk about it: attributing it to me not having an Aronis read is just taking advantage of my absence.


It's more of an observation than an attack. I felt that you coming back with a vote on me rather then the answer you had promised was a pretty good indicator that you didn't feel a pressing need to actually honor the request.

I can certainly empathize with a busy schedule.

Who's my scum buddy?
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Post Post #706 (isolation #21) » Sun Sep 28, 2014 9:31 am

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I suppose that was the hammer.

Nacho and Dry-fit both have a higher chance to flip scum IMO, but certainly not a terrible lynch.
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Post Post #721 (isolation #22) » Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:29 am

Post by CrashTextDummie »

In post 707, ToastyToast wrote:
In post 684, CrashTextDummie wrote:Process of elimination leaves Aronis, Nacho, Dry-Fit, Xayzeck as scum candidates. Xay hasn't done anything significantly scummy to my knowledge. Dry-Fit and Aronis I don't think are scum together. I'm pretty sure that makes Nacho the best lynch.


You do realize that process of elimination trends are what is wrong with mafia games here? Like there has been such a decline in town performance because of this, and it fails more than it wins.


No, I did not realize that. I readily believe that games are being lost because people overvalue their town reads and misapply them in the process, but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with PoE. I personally tend to be cautious in handing out town reads and very rarely am completely fooled by scum. I feel that in after the D1 deadline shenanigans, PoE is warranted. And unless I see a compelling reason why I shouldn't be town reading Pere and Iecerint (and you), I'm not going to change my approach.

In post 711, ToastyToast wrote:I still don't understand why you think this...Is Dry-fit based solely on the consistency of his stance on salamance/elyse?


I've discussed this pretty extensively. I think his push against Salamance was a bus. To my mind, he has not been able to demonstrate a cohesive town mindset behind half the arguments he made (and arguably his strongest argument in hindsight, Salamance's early game fixation on theory, was severely undermined by his reaction to the shot and claim). I believe his behavior at deadline was scum motivated and his defense stands in direct contradiction to what he said at the time. He hasn't done anything distinctly pro-town and there's just not that many plausible scenarios in which he's town.

Do you have an active town read on him? Why?

I am more willing to consider Xayceck than I was yesterday given the SC kill. I still think Nacho/Dry-fit are more likely to yield scum.
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Post Post #723 (isolation #23) » Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:44 am

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Salamance's push against him doesn't feel like a bus. More to the point, PV's reaction to Salamance's push against him doesn't feel like scum being bussed. I've also masoned with PV recently and I feel I have a pretty good grasp on how he thinks as town, and I think I see a lot of it in this game. He is not as strong a town read as SC was (mostly because I don't remember how he plays as scum), but it's strong enough.
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Post Post #724 (isolation #24) » Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:59 am

Post by CrashTextDummie »

Vote: Nacho


I've seen town Nacho fight like a maniac to avoid what he thought was a town lynch in more than one game. It involved a lot of screaming, pushing and browbeating. Here he didn't even bother to present a viable alternative wagon. I understand time constrains and being disenfranchised from a game, but it's not like he wasn't around at the critical time. I find it incredibly unlikely that town Nacho would post the town case he posted for Aronis and then just leave it at that so close to deadline.

I have other reasons to vote him over Dry-fit, but it requires some rereading and I don't have the time right now.
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Post Post #745 (isolation #25) » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:27 am

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In post 739, Iecerint wrote:I am inclined to no lynch. In addition to the 6 player situation, a living town player may have the hide/roleblock available, which may allow for someone to be cleared tomorrow depending upon how the deaths work.

Using the hypo-hide is probably pretty risky at this point if it works like a typical hide.


I'd expect a living town hider to have already used his shot. At least I don't see a compelling reason why he would have wanted to hold it.

A town roleblocker can't clear anyone if we no lynch. If he doesn't block the kill, he can't even clear himself. If he blocks the kill, we'll still be in mylo, just with a 1 vs. 1 standoff.

However if we do lynch and hit scum, a town roleblocker could either catch the final scum or clear someone. If we lynch and hit town, a town roleblocker could still save the game with a successful block (and would have improved odds to do so).

I think risk/reward is better if we lynch today.

My go-to lynch options would be Dry-fit/Xayceck, but I'll admit to being pretty surprised that Nacho flipped town and I haven't seriously considered that pairing, so I'm going to review.
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Post Post #752 (isolation #26) » Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:50 am

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In post 746, Iecerint wrote:To be honest, I think the very best case scenario is the following:

1. No lynch. Town has the roleblock.
2. The roleblocker is not nightkilled. The roleblock is not used (to avoid the WIFOM element).
3. Lynch scum in lylo.
4. Roleblocker roleblocks to clear or find scum.
5. Final lylo.


Clearly that's not best case scenario?

Best case scenario is we lynch scum today, the kill is blocked, we gain a lynch and very likely win the game.
Second best scenario is we lynch scum today, the kill is not blocked but the roleblocker manages to confirm a town player.

Worst case scenario is obviously we lynch town today, the kill is not blocked and we lose outright. I don't think no lynching today significantly improves our chances of getting that first lynch decision right, though. It's true there doesn't seem to be an obvious town player for scum to take out, but they still get to tailor endgame to their purposes.
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Post Post #762 (isolation #27) » Tue Oct 07, 2014 12:54 am

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I've contemplated this game and have some food for thought.

Everyone who flipped so far has been vanilla. Either there's a considerable amount of town power left among an increasingly shallow pool of players or we're all vanilla and this is functionally a limited-reveal game. If it's the latter (as I suspect), it's unfathomable to me that there are 2 scum left. 3 vs. 9 is inherently scum sided and the horoscopes don't favor either side (town is statistically more likely to receive both good and bad luck). If anything it favors scum, since the majority of good luck is more powerful in scum's hand and the majority of bad luck is more damaging in town's hand. Add the possibility of devastating power landing in scum's hand, as happened on D1, and I'm seeing a horribly imbalanced set up.

Needless to say, we should mass claim. I'm vanilla town. Order doesn't matter to me. If it indeed turns out that this is an all vanilla set up, I'd consider it a given that we are only looking for one more scum player and there would be even less reason to no lynch, IMO.
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Post Post #763 (isolation #28) » Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:40 am

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In post 754, Dry-fit wrote:I want to lynch CTD or Iec today.


Your reasoning for wanting to lynch me and your current read on Xazeck, please.

----------

Toasty, I don't think your case against me is ill-intended, but it is very misguided. Most of your arguments, as well as your unwillingness to actually engage me on any of our opposed reads indicate to me a deep paranoia that's clouding your judgement:

In post 757, ToastyToast wrote:Meanwhile, this distracts from the fact that much of the dead found him suspicious as well.


Gemini Blind didn't have me as a strong scum read. StrangerCoug actually had me in his town block. That's the people who were killed at night. Aronis also didn't have me as a strong scum read. The only player who died wanting me dead was Nacho.

Meanwhile,
all
the dead town players were scum reading Xayzeck.

In post 757, ToastyToast wrote:I see CTD as someone trying to lead the town in a direction when he really should be sheeping at this point given the previous failures of his reads (or, at least, he should think a little harder about his reads given that nacho "oh so shockingly" flipped town).


1. My reads weren't as bad as you make them out to be.
2. I am an opinionated player and don't sheep on principle. You are correct in that I am trying to lead the town. I always do.
3. There is still very little indication that I was wrong about any of my current town reads, giving me no reason to sheep anyone on to them.
4. I
am
thinking harder given Nacho's flip. Howere it does not in itself change my core beliefs about this game.

In post 757, ToastyToast wrote:The possibility of scum gaining powers is a scary one, and if CTD is really that concerned about the "risk/reward," then would he be willing to risk being lynched right now to prove he stands behind it? Probably not.


The possibility of scum gaining powers is only scary if we are in lylo and the only way to get out of lylo (or mylo) is to lynch today (going by the previous assumption of 2 scum left, which was the basis for my argument). Iece's no lynch road plan actually results in two days where scum could get good luck (with 33% likelyhood on the last day) while lynching today has the potential to result in none. We'd have to lynch scum either today or tomorrow anyway and there is literally no question that lynching today gives us better odds to win.

In post 757, ToastyToast wrote:Dry-fit (my biggest town read)


I believe you have yet to explain why Dry-fit is such a strong town read for you and why you disagree with my case against him. I would greatly appreciate it if you could set your suspicions of me aside for a second and actually talk to me about our disagreements. If not for your benefit, then for my own. Thank you.
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Post Post #783 (isolation #29) » Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:04 am

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Dry-fit, Iecerint and PV need to claim. Not that I expect any surprises. Any speculation about anyone being buddies should be put to rest after we're done.

Dry-fit is significantly less likely to be scum if we're dealing with one scum left.

Iece didn't play the hider like I would have, but I accept his reasoning. Still don't think it warrants no lynching, but I'm not sure it matters much anymore.

I have the roleblock. I would have preferred withholding the claim but there's that.

vote: Xayzeck
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Post Post #792 (isolation #30) » Fri Oct 10, 2014 3:28 am

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I find that somewhat disturbing, Iecerint.

I claimed because I had a feeling I was going to be forced to anyway and preferred doing it with more than a day to spare. I also was not looking forward to the controversy claiming tomorrow would have undoubtedly caused. And because it doesn't hurt to have all the cards on the table for this lynch decision.

I'm technically V/LA since I won't have access to a computer over the weekend. Will check in occasionally on the phone.
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Post Post #809 (isolation #31) » Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:19 am

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In post 793, Iecerint wrote:What do you find disturbing?

Disturbing that you read (and continue to refer to) me as female.
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Post Post #820 (isolation #32) » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:39 pm

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Xayzeck did not perform the kill and should be considered clear.

Awaiting Iece's report.
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Post Post #822 (isolation #33) » Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:17 pm

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You did not use your hide? Run me through that thought process, please.
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Post Post #824 (isolation #34) » Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:12 pm

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Except there is almost certainly only one scum left. I take it you disagree?
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Post Post #826 (isolation #35) » Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:07 pm

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You should have brought this up yesterday. It's not like I was just trying to make small talk. For you especially it would have been important to have a discussion on the matter since it hugely impacts your optimal use of role. Yes, minis usually have three scum. Minis also usually have 13 players. The scum sidedness of 9:3 was one of the reasons the player limit was increased in the first place. If there are two scum left, the set up is grossly unbalanced and I'd take a loss in strides.

I sincerely doubt you are a lone power role in this set up and from your perspective it should have been equally obvious Dry-fit wasn't either, who was the only other player who didn't claim vanilla. That should have given credence to my theory.
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Post Post #864 (isolation #36) » Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:49 am

Post by CrashTextDummie »

In post 828, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 824, CrashTextDummie wrote:Except there is almost certainly only one scum left. I take it you disagree?


I saw the post, but you get why accepting that at face value isn't going to happen, right?


Not really, no. I don't accept "minis usually have 3 scum" as an argument. 13 player games usually have 3 scum. When the town has a significant power edge. This game doesn't have either. It's not hugely relevant anymore because we have to lynch anyway and either the game will end or not. But you too should have made your argument yesterday.

In post 833, ToastyToast wrote:Interesting this all of a sudden CtD and Iecerint aren't bff's


Interesting in what way? Is it indicative of either one of us being scum? Is it indicative of us being scum together? This is such a suggestive comment, it makes my skin crawl.

I have a problem with Iece's use (or rather lack thereof) of power role, much as he seemed to have a problem with me claiming yesterday, but I don't think it makes him scum.

What I find way more problematic is you trying to insinuate that me questioning a previous town read is not kosher when I literally have no choice but to question previous town reads. I also in retrospect find it suspect for you to railroad me for having terrible reads before half of them were actually confirmed to be bad, and you chastising me and Iece for supposedly "wasting time" by discussing an aspect of the set up that is or was absolutely vital to figuring out correct town play rings false to me as well.

I think the scum made a huge mistake in killing Dry-fit and allowing me to confirm a player and that also points towards Toasty as the guilty party in my eyes since he evidently considers me highly lynchable.
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Post Post #915 (isolation #37) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:20 pm

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I am in very bad health and will likely spend the next couple of days in the hospital. I consequently haven't really thought about mafia the past days.

I have a doctor's appointment in a couple of hours and will be able to decide afterwards if I need to be replaced or not (depending on whether I need surgery today).

I'm very sorry I haven't given this game the attention it needs.
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Post Post #933 (isolation #38) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:24 am

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I'm here for a little bit. Can barely sit and am pumped full of painkillers, but I'll see what I can do.
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Post Post #935 (isolation #39) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:12 am

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A final comment on 1 scum vs. 2 scum left:
I find it incredibly frustrating that Toasty calls discussion of this issue a waste of time when his entire world view is fundamentally opposed to mine. He has been pushing me and Iece as a scumteam, which as I have been arguing could only be possible in an incredibly inbalanced set-up, but instead of arguing why he disagrees with me on this and having a productive and relevant discussion he completely shuts down on the matter and actually attacks me for trying to bring it to a head. To a degree I can understand a knee-jerk kind of "I don't have to argue with people I think are scum" stance, and I don't find his indignance particularly scummy, but yeah, really frustrating.

I'm equally frustrated in PV, for bringing up the exact argument I said did not apply. If there was more time left I'd ask him to find a 12 or even 13-player game with 3 scum where town did not have more power than scum and where town was additionally disadvantaged by the mechanics of the set-up. I am willing to bet that no such game exists, at least none where town didn't subsequently scream bloody murder at the mod.

I think it's at best pointless and at worst hurtful to ones ability to read the game if you look for connections that don't exist. I think Toasty's approach in particular could be scum motivated because it's easy to transition from "CTD and Iece are scum!" to "woops, only one of them was scum then" after one of his suspects is lynched.

I have to say though that I'm completely bewildered by PV insisting there are two scum left, yet town reading everyone but Iece. Why aren't you looking for scum pairs, PV? I'm pretty sure you did in the mason game that's been referenced a bunch of times. Hope you have time to address this.
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Post Post #936 (isolation #40) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:19 am

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There's one thing Toasty said that's very true and that I hadn't considered: readswise, he would have had a much easier time winning as scum with Dry-fit alive than Dry-fit dead.
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Post Post #937 (isolation #41) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:22 am

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In post 921, Iecerint wrote:Of note, I couldn't use the Hide during N1. I learned that I got it N1, but couldn't use it til N2.


I can confirm that this is how horoscopes work. I got the RB N2, could use it N3.
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Post Post #939 (isolation #42) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:29 am

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Did it tank because of scumpair analysis? The way I remember it, we lost because we couldn't get over our Thor suspicion.
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Post Post #940 (isolation #43) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:49 am

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In post 932, Iecerint wrote:If either the lynch or NK interacts with the loverize mechanic, we lose instantly. (Come to think of it, I guess this applies even if there's only one scum, with the saving grace that we can also win before the loverize mechanic becomes a problem.)


Except, of course, if the scum drew the ability, in which case our chances of winning would improve significantly.

Odd miscalculation on your part. There are two ways you could know whether the secret admirer is scum and maybe I shouldn't have pointed that out, but I don't have the time or wherewithal currently to figure it out.
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Post Post #942 (isolation #44) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:59 am

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I should start thinking about who to lynch since I really should go lie down.

I don't really think Toasty is a good lynch anymore, in light of his persuasive nightkill argument. I don't have strong feelings in PV vs. Iece and I don't have the time to develop any. Mostly I regret not being able to get to this sooner.

Strategically, I think Iece is probably a better lynch than PV for a number of reasons, so I think that's where I want to go.
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Post Post #945 (isolation #45) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:11 am

Post by CrashTextDummie »

So do I.

Vote: Iecerint
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Post Post #957 (isolation #46) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:37 pm

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Is this a joke?

mod: please replace me
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Post Post #970 (isolation #47) » Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:30 am

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So Iecerint was Xayzeck's secret admirer. Not entirely unexpected.
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Post Post #971 (isolation #48) » Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:37 am

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I thought I knew what I wanted to do, but I need to read back a bit.
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Post Post #975 (isolation #49) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:14 am

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For me the question is whether Toasty was bussing Salamance or whether Salamance was bussing Pere.

I was initially thinking Toasty because his post-deadline post ("maybe CTD is scum independently from Iece after all!", paraphrased) looked phony as hell, but I took another glance at his ISO and his push against Sal was a lot more forceful than I remembered it. I also know that Sal is prone to "unorthodox" scum play, so him bussing his only partner is more palatable IMO than Toasty doing the same. I'll have to reread in context though to see how likely Sal was to get lynched when Toasty made his push.
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Post Post #983 (isolation #50) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:16 pm

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In post 976, ToastyToast wrote:Could you quote what post you are referring to when I said "maybe CTD is scum independently..."?

I don't think I ever said that, but given the potential of 1 scum, I don't know what is wrong about saying that.
And what is "phony" about the post?

Are you suggesting my not knowing deadline had been reached is fake? If so why, and what makes it different from Xayzeck's?


I was paraphrasing this post which came after two days of you pushing me and Iece as a scum team.

I don't have a problem in general with wanting to read back before hammering, but the thing you wanted to read back for ("those two using [your] read to their advantage") reads as awfully one dimensional thinking for a town player in my opinion. My vote on Iece certainly burried your CTD/Iece scum pair theory, and given that neither PV nor I would have voted a scumbuddy freely that close to deadline, the only way Iece could have still been scum from your PoV would have been if he was buddies with Xayzeck OR if he was lone scum. But you went to neither of those places. You just wanted to make sure CTD/PV weren't the scum team after all. That's why I find that post phony.

As an aside, your talk of "potential for one scum" is also rather hypocritical after you've steadfastly pushed me as part of a pair while simultaneously refusing to engage me on the issue of number of scum.

I am not suggesting that you missing deadline is scummy seeing as two proven townies managed the same. What I will freely admit is that my care level for this game is at an all-time low after I've literally pulled myself up from the sickbed in order to not screw over this game and its players at yesterday's deadline and three players still allowed no-lynch to happen.

That said, the deadlines in this game really are surprisingly low (we're at 1 day left) and I'm pretty sure I'm pretty close to just voting someone and be done with it myself.
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Post Post #984 (isolation #51) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:21 pm

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vote: Pere
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Post Post #987 (isolation #52) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:54 pm

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I guess I chose unwisely.
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Post Post #989 (isolation #53) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:16 pm

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Then I guess we won. ;)
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Post Post #990 (isolation #54) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:17 am

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Plot twist: Pere drew no-flip and we're never going to find out who won.
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Post Post #996 (isolation #55) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:31 pm

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Thanks for the game! I think part of the reason why this game was so low energy has to do with there only being 1 scum for most of it. It's frustrating trying to look for connections when there aren't any and most people looked decently town. But yeah, I don't think anyone's going to be accused of being a try-hard off the back of this game.

I really liked the set-up and the theme, though I think it would have been better as an open. And while RC's modding was occasionally a bit sluggish, I really like the running commentary he did in the dead PT and wish more mods would show that kind of interest in their own games.

Kudos to Toasty for making the right decision in the end, as I was dreading any kind of endgame featuring Iece or Toasty town. Last time I was in that situation with both of them, they eventually correctly lynched me because I strongly defended my buddies (Iece apparently doesn't remember as he referenced the game but didn't recall any details, but it certainly remains in my memory ;) ). I was honestly surprised that my defense of Salamance wasn't really brought up until the last day at all, and even then only in passing.

I suppose there's humor in the fact that not only did three townies cause the D4 no-lynch, but that they were all thinking (to some extent) that they were in lylo. I really was pretty furious at the time, but I'm glad I decided to stick with it and not replace out.

Hope to see you all soon in another game. :)
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Post Post #997 (isolation #56) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:55 pm

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PV, you were a bit of a drag in-game, but reading your scum PT sure is fun! Why do I get the feeling you were more active there than here? :P

Sorry I couldn't be your traitor, I like things better when we're the same alignment. <3
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