Mini 1604 -- Zodiac Mafia (Game Over)

[Iecerint]

I am aware of your theory from yesterday, but I've been operating assuming two remaining scum, simply because there are almost always 3 scum in mini theme games. I only encounter 2-scum games in newbie games. But, I don't play games as often as I used to. Maybe the norms have changed. 12 players is also small for a newbie game.

[CrashTextDummie]

You should have brought this up yesterday. It's not like I was just trying to make small talk. For you especially it would have been important to have a discussion on the matter since it hugely impacts your optimal use of role. Yes, minis usually have three scum. Minis also usually have 13 players. The scum sidedness of 9:3 was one of the reasons the player limit was increased in the first place. If there are two scum left, the set up is grossly unbalanced and I'd take a loss in strides.

I sincerely doubt you are a lone power role in this set up and from your perspective it should have been equally obvious Dry-fit wasn't either, who was the only other player who didn't claim vanilla. That should have given credence to my theory.

[Iecerint]

I claimed Hider in the first place because you mentioned that the Hider had definitely already used his action N2 due to logical/appropriate use of the ability and the ability no longer being useful subsequently. <_< I think that was before you mentioned the 1 scum theory, though, to be fair.

Yesterday my main thinking about your 1 scum theory was that you really wanted to lynch someone and thought that bringing it up would make people lynch someone, perhaps due to a scum alignment. I thought this because you wanted to lynch someone prior to having that perspective on the game balance.

If there's only one scum the main effect from here is that there is wiggle room.

[PeregrineV]

Hmm. Secret Admirer is not very good. Even if a scum who got it or was targeted gets lynched, it's a scum win unless the Hide or Block stops the kill.

I think we should only fake-vote. When we have 3/5 fake-votes and everyone confirms his fake-vote, we each get a chance to indicate if the target is loverized. If it is...

well, I guess we still have to lynch them in that case, come to think of it. So maybe it doesn't really change anything. We just have to hope the abilities can save us in such a case.

But it's possible that they could both be town with hide (if I was targeted) or the block, so it's still possible to win in that case.

I don;t get most of what you are saying here.

The probability of my hide ending the game with a scum win outright was 60% (can't hide behind scum, can't hide behind NK target, the chance of their targeting me is basically 0%). I didn't think through the ramifications of the nympho role very carefully.

Your claim means that if Xayzeck is scum, you would have to be his buddy. You could also be scum with non-Xayzeck. If you are town, the scum have to be PereV and Toasty from my POV.

I think I get the first half, but your using random numbers when you actually have an informed choice that should reduce those odds.

As for the 2nd, you'll understand if I disagree.

Except there is almost certainly only one scum left. I take it you disagree?

I saw the 826 post, but you get why accepting that at face value isn't going to happen, right?

[Iecerint]

Re: "what I am saying here": 5 players, 2 scum. 1 scum is neighborized to 1 town. One of these is lynched -> 3 players, 1 scum. Nightkill. Scum win. But it's true that this is more flexible if 1 scum remains.

You probably don't disagree that that's the only interpretation from my POV, unless you're saying 1 scum remains.

[PeregrineV]

Re: "what I am saying here": 5 players, 2 scum. 1 scum is neighborized to 1 town. One of these is lynched -> 3 players, 1 scum. Nightkill. Scum win. But it's true that this is more flexible if 1 scum remains.

You probably don't disagree that that's the only interpretation from my POV, unless you're saying 1 scum remains.

OK, I could not for the life of me figure what you meant, then I got it. Secret Admirer. Scum could be tied to town or town to scum, or town to town which means we have to be careful. Guessing scum would not tie to scum.

I'll think through permuations later.

[Iecerint]

Loverized* sorry. At best 1 scum is part of the loverization. If there are 2 scum, we lose unless we lynch scum who isn't loverized. That's the bottom line.

[RedCoyote]

Aries' Daily Horoscope:

You probably think of yourself as a curious intellectual, Aries, but a recent expansion in career and finance has brought out talents for business and money that you didn't know you had. This has been a time not only of success and good fortune but also of learning more about yourself. Don't fall back on old fears or underestimate yourself. You're capable of accomplishing more than you know.

Aquarius' Daily Horoscope:

You've probably had few periods when business and finance have gone well for you, Aquarius. Now this trend seems to be coming to a head. Today you might start or close some type of agreement that will make a big difference to your finances. Your money situation should not only improve but also stabilize at a level higher than it's ever been. As long as you're diligent, this growth should continue.

Sagittarius' Daily Horoscope:

A huge get-together of some kind could take place today either at your home or the home of someone close to you, Sagittarius. It's possible this may turn into more than just a fun party. You might become involved in conversations with people who become valuable business or social contacts. Expect to have a wonderful time no matter what you do today.

Scorpio's Daily Horoscope:

It's likely that your personal and creative horizons are expanding, Scorpio. Your or another's artistic enterprises might pay off big today. You could be introduced to people who prove to be valuable contacts as well as new friends. Your love relationships are going well. Your new feeling of enthusiasm and self-confidence certainly doesn't hurt!

Virgo's Daily Horoscope:

Just about every department of life should be going very well for you now, Virgo. Business, finances, and partnerships are likely on their way to success, while personal relationships of all kinds, particularly romantic ones, should also be more rewarding. You might be thinking of expanding your horizons through new enterprises or study. Don't be shy - go for it.

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Vote Count 4 - 1

• Not Voting (5) ( PeregrineV - Xayzeck - ToastyToast - CrashTextDummie - Iecerint)

With five alive, it takes three to lynch.
Current Deadline:

(expired on 2014-10-23 19:00:00)

[ToastyToast]

What a shocking night kill!

I'll be on to post thoughts later today. Interesting this all of a sudden CtD and Iecerint aren't bff's

[RedCoyote]

NOTE: I'm going to be V/LA from tonight until Sunday.

[Iecerint]

We were never bffs.

[Xayzeck]

Derpderp

I'm clear if there's 1 scum, but why would there only be 1 scum?

[Iecerint]

The logic is that 12 players with 3 scum is imba and town doesn't have disproportionate power to make up for the imba.

[Iecerint]

Well, FWIW, I doubt CTD is scum if there's actually one scum. Clearing Xayzeck would be a silly move for scum who could clear anyone. Not to mention that failing to emphasize 1 scum as a possibility would make the clear hazier.

Also nevermind at my earlier logic, since obviously Xayzeck could just have been other than the one who did the kill if there were 2 scum.

[Iecerint]

I guess he'd have to claim a somewhat reasonable target, though.

[ToastyToast]

I think its stupid to consider one or two scum. We should just be voting for who we think is scum. Anything else is secondary and we cannot know given our current information.

@Iece: When I did my ISO you guys rarely talked to one another which suggests potential scumbuddies.

Also, does that mean you think CTD is scum if there are 2 but not if there is one? In which case, I think you need to stop trying to decode 1/2 scum, and no one should be making decisions based on it. Because there is no way to know other than setup speculation, which is always going to be an erroneous path.

[ToastyToast]

The probability of my hide ending the game with a scum win outright was 60% (can't hide behind scum, can't hide behind NK target, the chance of their targeting me is basically 0%). I didn't think through the ramifications of the nympho role very carefully.

Your claim means that if Xayzeck is scum, you would have to be his buddy. You could also be scum with non-Xayzeck. If you are town, the scum have to be PereV and Toasty from my POV.

Just saw this lol. In what universe?

[Iecerint]

Also nevermind at my earlier logic, since obviously Xayzeck could just have been other than the one who did the kill if there were 2 scum.

[Iecerint]

It didn't occur to me because CTD was framing the RB claim in the context of one scum (without explicitly re-stating one scum), but I was operating under the assumption of 2 scum when I read the "he is cleared" claim, so my interpretation was based on the circumstances under which CTD would clear or fake-clear Xayzeck.

In the universe where you are assuming 2 scum, as I was doing, you totally have to be careful because you can lynch scum and still lose.

[Iecerint]

The nature of that slip should basically confirm to anyone reading very carefully that CTD and Iece cannot be scum together btw, unless we are making improbable and unnecessary fake townslip gambits.

The pairs-logic is of course irrelevant if there's only 1 scum, anyway.

I'm getting a little more inclined to just choose to operate as if there is 1 scum, mostly on the grounds that it will be almost impossible to win if there are two scums.

[Iecerint]

I cannot decide whether Toasty is scum or simply not very good at critical thinking. He's never really made a strong impression on me in forum mafia. We used to play face to face together some, but that was like 2-3 years ago.

[Iecerint]

For example, that thought is motivated by this kind of reaction on Toasty's part:

The probability of my hide ending the game with a scum win outright was 60% (can't hide behind scum, can't hide behind NK target, the chance of their targeting me is basically 0%). I didn't think through the ramifications of the nympho role very carefully.

Your claim means that if Xayzeck is scum, you would have to be his buddy. You could also be scum with non-Xayzeck. If you are town, the scum have to be PereV and Toasty from my POV.

Just saw this lol. In what universe?

His reaction to an error that should be a pretty salient alignment tell is instead focused on the idea that an error has occurred, which is not the mindset of someone who is evaluating alignments.

[ToastyToast]

I cannot decide whether Toasty is scum or simply not very good at critical thinking. He's never really made a strong impression on me in forum mafia. We used to play face to face together some, but that was like 2-3 years ago.

well fuck you, too. I play off of emotional tells and I'm so sorry if this is somehow inferior to your wonderful play this game.

[Iecerint]

I am providing the extra context only because someone else may have a better sense of you than I do.

[Iecerint]

Also, some people have criticized me earlier in this game as not being transparent enough with why I have reads on particular players (can't remember who, I think Dryfit), so I thought it couldn't hurt to specify why I find you scummy more explicitly. Though you didn't quote that part or implicitly object to it.