Open 575: Friends & Enemies-Together At Last (OVER)

[Wisdom]

What does the timing of the explanation have to do with that? He still found an excuse to hop on the wagon and that's what matters.

[acryon]

Sorry for the wall in advance.

Splitting this up into a few sections to keep it organized/focused on things I think are notable.

Early Game/Wgeurts Questioning

-39 was basically just a re-wording of my initial questioning of Victor’s question. I didn’t really think much of it at the time, but now it seems like may have been trying to gain some town-cred by calling out Victor even though I already did that. It looks like it worked because in 46 Mathdino seems to give him some of that cred.
-64 we see Wisdom seconding a question from wgeurts about why I thought the vote on him may be justified. I thought it was painfully obvious to everyone but wgeurts why people might be suspecting him given his erratic play. This made sense coming from someone who is new, but looking at it from Wisdom now seems fabricated. I think he should have known better.
-In 103, he questions wgeurts on unvoting him. This is one of those things that I think isn’t inherently scummy, but if you are looking at it being done by potential scum, it looks really scummy.
-108 is another example of this I think. He questions TTH this time about not engaging him directly. He is very proactive in his defense.
-110 and 114 are more of the same. Now that I’m reading through it again, all of these types of posts are really rubbing me the wrong way. I’m still don’t know that they point to him being scum, but they do help prop up a scum-case on him I think.
-In 188, he calls for wgeurts to stop the mason-talk, which is pro-town, but he does so after Mathdino already calls it out, so it’s hard to give him real town-points for it.
-299 he begins to go after SW for defending him. I’m all for looking into those appearing to WK you as scum, but the way he is going about it does seem a little too aggressive to be genuine.

Push on SW

-I actually agreed with the push on SW, as I joined in as well. If Wisdom is scum, there is still a chance, I think, that this was a bus. It did feel quite genuine, but I don’t want to rule it out just because it felt good.
-346 pings as he says he will self-vote over a NL. This is not town-motivated. Lynching a random person is better than a NL, but if you are town, then lynching what is a confirmed town to you is not better than a NL.

Miscellaneous

-Looking at this vote-count, I think there is a

very

good chance that there was some bussing going on:
Wisdom (4) - TellTaleHeart, wgeurts, SilverWolf, Newbie
wgeurts (4) - VictorDeAngelo, blindmewithscience, Wisdom, Mathdino
VictorDeAngelo (1) - acryon
acryon (1) – Malakittens
I’m not going to speculate pre-flip, but I wanted to make a note for future reference if Wisdom does end up being the lynch and flips scum.
-In the VC in 400, I don’t know how likely it is that 2+ scum would be on the wgeurts wagon at that point in time. I’m certainly not saying it’s impossible, but my initial thought on it is that this gives Wisdom some town-points.

Mala/Mid-game

-In 354, I made a far-fetched (and I admitted it as such) post about a potential Mala coaching wgeurts situation. I think most people recognized this as some wild speculation (as it was), but Wisdom jumped on it in 355.
-Then in 404, he sort of begins to run with it by questioning Mala on her reads, although he hadn’t really engaged her much at all before now.
-In 590/593 he votes and pushes for more info from Mala. I actually liked this, because Mala had been pretty weak with her reasoning.
-In 610 Wisdom mentions masons maybe voting each other to muddy the waters, and this doesn’t really make any sense at all. Town don’t vote players who are confirmed town to them; they either vote scum or vote to pressure those they are unsure about. Very weird comment to make, especially from someone with a good amount of experience.
-614 he gets weirdly defensive toward TTH and says he is “starting to consider [him avoiding interaction with him] a scum tactic.” This just reads really awkwardly.
-666 he again is asking for people to explain town-reads on him. All of this focus on explanations for town-reading him seem to indicate a greater desire to clear himself to town than to actually find scum. It isn’t scummy to be concerned about what people think of you, but the degree to which he has focused on it is suspect.

Late-game

-696 and [/post]740[/post] do read like scum trying to protect their buddy. The soft-defense definitely pings a bit.
-752 and 755 do venture into hard-defending territory, but it is quickly backed off in 760 where he concedes that Victor did some weird things.
-I agreed with a lot of his pushing on Constantine, and still do.
-His post in 786 pings. He asks both myself and Mathdino, knowing that we shared similar views on SW in the past, so it seems like he could be trying to keep us strung along behind him.
-1084 is super weird. “The remaining scum is mala and most likely acryon”. What?? He had never even really mentioned me before that point and now I am most likely scum?
-1099 is just so weak. He says I am scum simply due to PoE, but could also be N_M or BMWS. This is just so confusing. His reasoning for thinking any of me/MMWS/N_M is nonexistent.

The fact that I have agreed with more than one of the wagons he was pushing makes me obviously reluctant to push him over someone I have completely disagreed with(Constantine), but it does appear that there is a very good chance he is scum. I think it is an absolute certainty that one of Wisdom/Riddleton/Constantine is scum, and very probably that 2 are scum.

VOTE: Wisdom

[Mathdino]

The VD lynch sucked, nobody who was voting him ever gave any good reason for voting Victor. I hated it and wanted actual scum lynched.

This pings me a little

because it's a pretty hyperbolic/sensationalist take on what actually happened (the 'sucky' lynch that flipped scum vs the 'actual scum' that is both unflipped and, as far as I can tell, you're not actually pushing anymore)

my lynchpool today is probably:

Riddle
Constantine

Wisdom

Newbie

Would not surprise me if both scum were in there.

The rest of my play today is probably going to try to come up with compelling reasons that two of them are town

Wisdom definitely NOT scum w/ Newbie.

leaning newbie town now.

He needed an excuse? He could've jumped on your wagon ages ago, COMBINED with Mala's argument for you being scum, Wisdom.
By the time he made that votepost, he had multiple opportunities to get on your wagon, not even counting "Hey guys, I reread the game, and Wisdom looks scum because [REASONS]".

Edit: Haven't read acryon's post.

[wgeurts]

Darn you acryon, you've just said (a lot) of what was in my case on wisdom. I'll continue it anyway due to my differen't perspective.

[borkjerfkin]

Darn you acryon, you've just said (a lot) of what was in my case on wisdom. I'll continue it anyway due to my differen't perspective.

Please read the last few pages; TIA.

[Wisdom]

@acryon
I've only read your first paragraph, but I can already see that your case is a bunch of confbias.

@Mathdino
That doesn't change the fact that his "reason" doesn't make any sense. What's the scum motivation in doing what he says I did? I don't understand how you can agree with that.

[acryon]

@acryon
I've only read your first paragraph, but I can already see that your case is a bunch of confbias.

It definitely has a decent bit of confbias, as do most cases, and I mentioned that a number of the pieces don't point to you as scum on their own, but rather help prop up the pieces that do point to you as scum.

[Mathdino]

acryon i love you

please write all my cases for me

literally checked every one of those posts

everything checks out

Edit: It's not scum motivated. What you did was an error, sure. But you would be a helluva lot more careful about it if you were legit playing town.
I, on the other hand, can't understand how you don't see what I see when you ISO those players.

[Wisdom]

-299 he begins to go after SW for defending him. I’m all for looking into those appearing to WK you as scum, but the way he is going about it does seem a little too aggressive to be genuine.

Since when aggression is scummy? You're trying hard to find my actions scummy and it just looks silly.

[Wisdom]

Edit: It's not scum motivated. What you did was an error, sure. But you would be a helluva lot more careful about it if you were legit playing town.
I, on the other hand, can't understand how you don't see what I see when you ISO those players.

Not really, in fact, if I was scum, I would be actively looking for such things and there's no chance I'd miss this.
I don't see what you see for the same reason I don't think they're scum together.

[acryon]

-299 he begins to go after SW for defending him. I’m all for looking into those appearing to WK you as scum, but the way he is going about it does seem a little too aggressive to be genuine.

Since when aggression is scummy? You're trying hard to find my actions scummy and it just looks silly.

Nothing is an absolute here. Aggression is not scummy. But

your

aggression toward multiple players who were town-reading you is. I already said there is nothing wrong with trying to out people who are WKing, but it seems that one of your primary objectives is making sure everyone knows why people are town-reading you.

[Wisdom]

-346 pings as he says he will self-vote over a NL. This is not town-motivated. Lynching a random person is better than a NL, but if you are town, then lynching what is a confirmed town to you is not better than a NL.

Wrong. If you are town and escape the lynch via NL, you'll just get wagoned again the next day and the town will lose another day. Besides, lynching yourself over a NL is more useful to town for the same reason lynching anyone is better than a NL - more information for the town.

[Mathdino]

Edit: It's not scum motivated. What you did was an error, sure. But you would be a helluva lot more careful about it if you were legit playing town.
I, on the other hand, can't understand how you don't see what I see when you ISO those players.

Not really, in fact, if I was scum, I would be actively looking for such things and there's no chance I'd miss this.
I don't see what you see for the same reason I don't think they're scum together.

Holy shit, you're actually going with "too townish to be town".

Wisdom.

There are pretty much no alternatives.

Considering the correct play for you would probably to start pushing acryon, wouldn't be surprised if that happened in the next page.

[borkjerfkin]

What's the scum motivation in doing what he says I did?

There's no scum motivation in leading town on a wild goose chase / pushing lynches you know won't go through? Like what I did the last time I played this setup?

In fact

http://www.quicktopic.com/49/H/KpjZBCV3DsW
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=25295

I want people to at least experience how scum mindset works in this setup. Last time I played this I had the mason team narrowed down to two possible sets on D1 of a game I had just replaced into. I whiffed on the kill N1, but after that I knew who the team was exactly. It's not that hard to find a set of three masons; they have all the associatives scum have and more because they're not afraid to hard buddy each other. Scum probably knew post TTH flip. TTH was pretty fucking town though so I can't begrudge them that kill.

That didn't stop me from pushing them on subsequent days, because it 1) wastes tons of time (I am actively trying to make sure this doesn't happen anymore today because it's getting out of hand) 2) still looks like scumhunting and 3) forcing the claim allows you to make a 0 info nightkill and 4) sometimes the game just naturally moves there (this happened a lot in my case)

[Wisdom]

-In 610 Wisdom mentions masons maybe voting each other to muddy the waters, and this doesn’t really make any sense at all. Town don’t vote players who are confirmed town to them; they either vote scum or vote to pressure those they are unsure about. Very weird comment to make, especially from someone with a good amount of experience.

More wrong. Masons have in mind that scum are looking for them. If they are smart, they'll try to fool scum into making false connections and muddying the waters. As such, voting each other is not that unlikely as you seem to present it.

[Mathdino]

-In 610 Wisdom mentions masons maybe voting each other to muddy the waters, and this doesn’t really make any sense at all. Town don’t vote players who are confirmed town to them; they either vote scum or vote to pressure those they are unsure about. Very weird comment to make, especially from someone with a good amount of experience.

More wrong. Masons have in mind that scum are looking for them. If they are smart, they'll try to fool scum into making false connections and muddying the waters. As such, voting each other is not that unlikely as you seem to present it.

You've made a logical error. I'm not going to convince you on this so this is mostly so people don't somehow fall for this muddying argument. Consider:

Behaviour A is something that most of the time only masons will do.
Thus, masons are capable of avoiding behaviour A.
This means that doing the opposite of A does not necessarily make someone a mason.
Well guess what.
Masons are still pretty much the only instances of behaviour A.
You don't need to play dumb anymore.

[Wisdom]

Ok bork since we're saying things as they are now.

Why the fuck would I post what I posted instead of noting to myself that those two are possible masons? Scum, like you're correctly saying, are constantly on the hunt for masons. How likely do you think it is to ignore such a connection and post something about it like I did? And how likely is it they'll just shut up, don't talk about any connections, and do their work at night?

Things are simple. I didn't even consider them being masons as I made that post, all I was thinking about was whether they make sense as scum together or not. Yes, looking back, I should have thought that that post could have helped scum greatly, but I just didn't. Because I haven't cared to look about who is mason.

So why are you pointing at this and call this scum? Do you think that I'm smart enough not to do this mistake as town but dumb enough to do it as scum? It doesn't make any sense.

[Wisdom]

-In 610 Wisdom mentions masons maybe voting each other to muddy the waters, and this doesn’t really make any sense at all. Town don’t vote players who are confirmed town to them; they either vote scum or vote to pressure those they are unsure about. Very weird comment to make, especially from someone with a good amount of experience.

More wrong. Masons have in mind that scum are looking for them. If they are smart, they'll try to fool scum into making false connections and muddying the waters. As such, voting each other is not that unlikely as you seem to present it.

You've made a logical error. I'm not going to convince you on this so this is mostly so people don't somehow fall for this muddying argument. Consider:

Behaviour A is something that most of the time only masons will do.
Thus, masons are capable of avoiding behaviour A.
This means that doing the opposite of A does not necessarily make someone a mason.
Well guess what.
Masons are still pretty much the only instances of behaviour A.
You don't need to play dumb anymore.

That doesn't mean that masons have to be sitting ducks. Anything that might confuse scum is useful.

[acryon]

-In 610 Wisdom mentions masons maybe voting each other to muddy the waters, and this doesn’t really make any sense at all. Town don’t vote players who are confirmed town to them; they either vote scum or vote to pressure those they are unsure about. Very weird comment to make, especially from someone with a good amount of experience.

More wrong. Masons have in mind that scum are looking for them. If they are smart, they'll try to fool scum into making false connections and muddying the waters. As such, voting each other is not that unlikely as you seem to present it.

I disagree with this and your point about no-lynches. It goes more like this if you are town and are in danger of being lynched: lynch probable scum > lynch anyone > no-lynch and fight tomorrow to convince people you are not scum > lynch you, a confirmed(to you) town.

As for the masons argument, it is just wrong and I don't agree with it. Doing that may make it harder for the scum to find the masons, but it also makes it harder for the town to find scum, and the latter is much more important than the former.

[Wisdom]

Edit: It's not scum motivated. What you did was an error, sure. But you would be a helluva lot more careful about it if you were legit playing town.
I, on the other hand, can't understand how you don't see what I see when you ISO those players.

Not really, in fact, if I was scum, I would be actively looking for such things and there's no chance I'd miss this.
I don't see what you see for the same reason I don't think they're scum together.

Holy shit, you're actually going with "too townish to be town".

Wisdom.

There are pretty much no alternatives.

Considering the correct play for you would probably to start pushing acryon, wouldn't be surprised if that happened in the next page.

No, I'm going with masons shouldn't be this obvious. Especially since the players we're talking about are not some dumb idiot like Constantine.

[Mathdino]

Behaviour A is something that most of the time only masons will do.
Thus, masons are capable of avoiding behaviour A.
This means that doing the opposite of A does not necessarily make someone a mason.
Well guess what.
Masons are still pretty much the only instances of behaviour A.
You don't need to play dumb anymore.

That doesn't mean that masons have to be sitting ducks. Anything that might confuse scum is useful.

Your logic disturb me.

No they don't HAVE to be.

But sometimes they ARE. If they display behaviour A, well, ya know what they say...

If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, and sits like a duck...

[borkjerfkin]

As for the masons argument, it is just wrong and I don't agree with it. Doing that may make it harder for the scum to find the masons, but it also makes it harder for the town to find scum, and the latter is much more important than the former.

Correct. Especially on Day 2.

[Wisdom]

-299 he begins to go after SW for defending him. I’m all for looking into those appearing to WK you as scum, but the way he is going about it does seem a little too aggressive to be genuine.

Since when aggression is scummy? You're trying hard to find my actions scummy and it just looks silly.

Nothing is an absolute here. Aggression is not scummy. But

your

aggression toward multiple players who were town-reading you is. I already said there is nothing wrong with trying to out people who are WKing, but it seems that one of your primary objectives is making sure everyone knows why people are town-reading you.

No, I just dislike being townread because scum buddy me all of the time. Therefore when someone states a townread on me, I want to know the exact reasons.

[acryon]

In the interest of not being purely blood-thirsty and mindless, 1491 pings town, but it could just be me trusting the emotion behind it too much.

[Mathdino]

HAHAHAHAHAHA

You never asked me why I townread you for literally all of D1.