Open 576: The Enemy of my Enemy is my...Enemy? (Day 2)

[Teen Girl Squad]

Actually dinosaurs punt teen girls.



VOTE: dragonspawn

Because uh excuse me teen girls are all about Cthulu these days jeez keep up with the times.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Actually,

UNVOTE: dragonspawn
VOTE: Astinus

for self-voting.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Actually, nah, let's wagon dragonspawn because it's fun to say.

UNVOTE: Astinus
VOTE: dragonspawn

[Teen Girl Squad]

What makes you think my Astinus vote was the serious one?

[Teen Girl Squad]

Nah, I did some thinking real quick after my first switch and decided dragonspawn is definitely a better vote, and that Astinus is probably town.

[Teen Girl Squad]

.........Oh. Yeah that's... pretty much a scum claim.

UNVOTE: dragonspawn
VOTE: Astinus

[Teen Girl Squad]

Looks like scum misunderstanding how the different factions work to me.

[Teen Girl Squad]

I guess it's possible that one scum faction is trying to identify the other by luring them out to vote her? But that's more beneficial to town than scum this early in the game so I'm going with the first explanation.

[Teen Girl Squad]

UNVOTE: Astinus

My vote's on her for all intents and purposes, but I do agree with Mathdino that we should at least get a little bit of D1 discussion in before we lynch her.

@2birds1stone, why do you doubt Astinus is scum? She essentially said as much. What was wrong with Mathdino's unvote if you doubt Astinus is scum?

@NJAC, You've heard more from Astinus, do you think she's town or one of the scum at this point?

[Teen Girl Squad]

Huh... Oilura's post is definitely confusing, but I'm not convinced it's coming from scum. I'm a little bit suspicious of mastin myself, if for no other reason than I distrust that she seems to be positioning herself as sort of an authority figure so early on and I don't know her so I can't really confirm if it's warranted.

Also got to agree that I don't understand mastin's townread on guile. What's up with that, mastin? PoE, or what?

---

In my experience, the most anti-town play comes from town; scum are just too cautious to do certain things. Scum do not want to come into the game with a self-vote and keep that self-vote on even at L-1, and scum do not really want the attention of holding a self-vote. If I had to guess, I'd say this is some extremely misguided attempt at sparking discussion (and sure, it worked, but it's fucking WIFOM and liable to turn into a theory discussion).

The unvote struck me as a way of looking town without actually contributing to town. Outside of newbie games, it seems safe to say that nobody's going to derphammer a declared L-1; on top of that, the unvote only served to remove pressure from a player who really needed more of it. Finally, on the off-chance that Astinus is scum, Mathdino's unvote looks like it comes from a spooked buddy.

This looks like a "too scummy to actually be scum" argument. Which I mean, I get, I don't think scum would be so obvious most of the time, but it's still a fallacy. If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck it's probably scum and you should lynch that duck, or however that phrase goes.

I'm kind of confused about how you actually feel about Astinus? You said you doubted she was scum at first, and that you think she's misguided town, but you're also saying that she needed more pressure? When she was at L-1...?

What about some of the other unvotes that happened, mine and Fink's, do you find those suspicious, too?

---

Oh, and re: mastin's experience question:

This is my first non-newbie game on this site, and my fourth game on this account (two completed, one ongoing other game). I was actually a member of this site a long-ass time ago, like four years or so, under the name earthintruder, and I played maybe four games on that account, too, all newbie, plus a couple of extremely embarrassing marathon games. So, I wouldn't call myself an expert, but I like to think I know what I'm doing. I'd be happy to link some games if anybody wants that.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Like I said, I voted for myself to hopefyully help my side win. And I did not claim to be scum anywhere.

How is your play helpful to

any

side you could be on right now? I'm honestly asking, I'm not trying to insult you.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Yeah I see no reason to lynch anybody but Astinus this day phase. But I think we should give it another real-life day or two to hear from everyone. I'm most interested in hearing more from Mastin and why she's townreading Astinus. NJAC seems like a good pick for potential partner at this point, but ehhh I don't want to rush into associative reads.

[Teen Girl Squad]

I'm a little bit suspicious of mastin myself, if for no other reason than I distrust that she seems to be positioning herself as sort of an authority figure so early on and I don't know her so I can't really confirm if it's warranted.

I literally did exactly the opposite of this. As in, I explicitly said, "Don't put me on a pedestal. I'm only mediocre." (Almost my exact words.) I'm

well-known

; some people love me and some people hate me with a near-exact split in them. I play a lot, so I really get around. But I explicitly said that

doesn't

mean I'm skilled.

Fair enough. The phrase "rock star" and the amount of writing you spent introducing yourself and your reputation gave me a bit of a knee-jerk reaction, but I can see by the qualifiers that authority wasn't your intention.

It looks like your vote on me (and my suspicion of you) mostly comes down to a playstyle difference? I try to be as transparent as possible, and to do that I also try to be concise with my posts, and not to overthink them. For me, that's good town play, short posts being easier to read and all. You seem to make much longer posts, trying to show as much of your thought process as possible, which, for me, seems scummy at first glance. It's something I would probably do a lot as scum because I'd be nervous and desperate to prove my towniness. But it seems like we just have very different styles of posting, so, you're null to me for the time being.

---


@dragonspawn, how do you feel about NJAC's posts?


---

For the record, the thing that really convinces me that Astinus is scum is this post:

I've read on the MafiaScum wiki that self-voting can help your game in certain circumstances, depending on your role. I feel that it would be beneficial to my game, so that is why I'm self-voting.

I cannot imagine there is a single place in the wiki that advises players to self-vote as Vanilla Town. And like everyone's said, in this setup, if you're not Vanilla Town, you're scum.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Astinus honestly does read town outside of the scumclaim, for the reasons Mastin outlined.

The reasons Mastin outlined were gut and not believing actual scum would act as scummy as Astinus is, at least as far as I can tell. Seems like kind of a stretch to me.

I agree that dragonspawn is looking scummy - it seems like he's trying to buddy me a bit? I noticed his reads have been following mine, the NJAC vote especially, and I can't help but feel like his vote switching is a tactic to take pressure and focus off of Astinus. He keeps saying pressure, but that's pretty meaningless when a lot of us have agreed that Astinus is going to be the lynch this day phase.

Speaking of which re:Mathdino, yeah, I absolutely think we should lynch Astinus today, I have no intention of voting to lynch anyone else. I think leaving her alive just creates way too much WIFOM and could potentially fuck us over in LyLo. We can't guarantee scum would NK her, whatever her alignment. Personally, if I was on the scumteam opposite her, I'd probably try to shoot her outright, but I can also see the benefits of leaving her be for a bit, since it means tons of WIFOM and confusion for town to argue over.

@Oilura, is your vote on me seriously only based on some RVS shenanigans I pulled?

[Teen Girl Squad]

@Oilura, To clarify: Mastin says her read on Astinus is strong. I think her reasoning is weak and was surprised 2birds agreed with it.

So you think scum would be trying to lynch Astinus right now? Since you don't seem to mind associative reads this early in the game, who do you think the last scum is?

(also sorry I must've mixed up your vote with Mastin's)

@dragonspawn, You're buddying because I think you're just saying what you think I want to hear. No need to misrep

[Teen Girl Squad]

Why would scum not vote for Astinus and town would?

Because he is a bad scum player (bad scums tend to buddy the other scum).

The rapid swapping of votes from a serious vote to an RVS vote is a telltale sign of a bad scum player. Why would town do such a thing? Bad or not, town would keep the vote to pressure him.

This is... really confusing. Oilura, I notice that a lot of your scumreads hinge on them being bad scum (you mentioned earlier that you also think Mastin is scum playing poorly). What do you think good scum play would be at this point in the game?

I thought it was obvious that my vote-hopping during RVS was something silly and attention-grabbing to help RVS go by faster, but let me state for the record: That's what it was. I thought Astinus was doing the same thing until she basically claimed scum.

[Teen Girl Squad]

I agree that dragonspawn is looking scummy - it seems like he's trying to buddy me a bit?

Speaking of which re:Mathdino, yeah, I absolutely think we should lynch Astinus today, I have no intention of voting to lynch anyone else.

I hope you can appreciate the irony, here. I'm not quite sure I'd go as far as to say it's hypocritical of you, but...yeah.

Not sure what's hypocritical here. Do those two thoughts somehow contradict each other? Are you saying I'm buddying somebody else, or what?

[Teen Girl Squad]

You could like... respond to what people are saying, though? Considering a lot of it's about you???

[Teen Girl Squad]

I'm also more than willing to hammer Astinus in the near future, once we've heard from her.

Not sure what to make of Oilura's last post so I guess I'll sleep on it.

PEDIT: Hey, now, be nice.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Some last thoughts before the thread is locked:

Astinus's flip is dependent on a lot of my reads (and i'm guessing all of our reads, since she was pretty much the dominating figure this day phase). If she turns up scum, Oilura's vote looks really bad. The whole "Astinus is dumb scum so all the other scum must be dumb, too" thing, plus the sudden hammer smacks of a frustrated scumpartner. Dragonspawn also could be a potential partner, like I said earlier his vote hopping looked like it could've been a tactic to take pressure off of her while still "voting" her.

If she's town, which I doubt but I suppose it's possible, then I'm more suspicious of the quieter players. A lot of players were able to fly under the radar a lot today, I'm still suspicious of NJAC, for one thing, guille and Riabi have both been quiet until recently too, so they're people to look more closely at. I agree Mastin looks worse if Astinus flips town, but the fact that there are multiple scum factions kind of messes with that.

Mathdino and Fink seem pretty town at this point. The rest are pretty much null.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Hmm. This kind of messes with my reads a bit. I'm not as convinced of scum-Oilura if both Mastin and Astinus are town after all. I'm starting to feel more like maybe Oilura's just wrong-town, and possibly another Astinus-type situation that scum may be pushing.

I need to re-read a bit and refocus on this game since I'm a little distracted right now, but off the top of my head I'm suspicious of dragonspawn and people that have lurked a bit, like NJAC and guille. Also really surprised to see people are still going after me for something I did in RVS, which seems a little scummy, too, but whatever. I'm not gonna lie, I'm really not sure how to scumhunt in this game since scum is also looking for each other, and can use that for townpoints, so I guess the best I can do for now is look at what confirmed town players have said and take it to heart.

@mathdino I specifically asked dragonspawn about NJAC because it was somebody that dragonspawn hadn't said much about, because NJAC hadn't said much, and because I had mentioned a passing suspicion of NJAC earlier, so I figured it was the perfect opportunity to test my theory that dragonspawn has just been saying things that he thinks me, and others, want to hear.

[Teen Girl Squad]

All right, finally have some time to go through this game again and get a lil more engaged.

Kind of suspicious of 2birds, on re-reading. I brought this up when it happened, too, but this post still really rubs me the wrong way:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Astinus

Scum? Probably not, but it's as good a place to start as any.

When I asked him about it, 2birds gave a fairly detailed description of why he thought Astinus was town, and basically described his vote as a policy lynch. To me, that looks like distancing himself from a wagon he wasn't sure about.

2birds also threw some shade at Mathdino for his early unvote on the Astinus wagon (unless I'm mistaken, I think that got to L-2 or possibly L-1 on page 3 or so), and one post in particular towards him really pings my scumdar:

Lynching Astinus right now, even if she's confirmed scum, helps no one but the other scumteam.

I'm not sure I like your certainty in the face of this level of craziness. Any claim that amounts to "I'm not town" obviously needs to be lynched, but I have no idea how anyone can be as confident as you are.

This is such a wishy-washy post. "I don't like your confidence in Astinus's alignment, but we should definitely lynch Astinus, who I didn't think was scum last page, but also I don't like your confidence."

In the same post, 2birds re-voted for Astinus, and said that he didn't find any other people unvoting Astinus suspicious.

---

Hey, guille, you mentioned early-ish during the Astinus fiasco that you felt she wasn't scum:

There are things here that makes me doubt that she is scum however. But I don't see town in her either, unlike what Mastin sees.

But you never explained why. Care to give some details now?

---

Forgive me if this has been brought up already, but what I think is most suspicious about dragonspawn is that he seems to be echoing people a lot. There was echoing of previous sentiments about Astinus when he was voting her, echoing previous sentiments about Mastin's posts when he voted her.

Also, I forget if I mentioned it already, but this post is just terrible:

I am inclined to agree that we don't benefit from a quick lynch. Let's keep the discussion going and get catch some scum for a good lynch day two. Especially if astinus somehow turns out to be town. The more discussion we keep going the more likely we will be to find the scum.

"Let's keep discussion going. Just in case I'm wrong about this wagon I'm sitting on while not discussing anything else."

What I'm most interested in, though, is dragonspawn's early townread of 2birds.

---

Clusk has been pretty quiet, and didn't say much D1 that didn't concern Astinus.

Clusk, you mentioned when you voted Astinus that you didn't buy the "too scummy to be scum" argument that a few people (2birds in particular) were putting out there. Now that Astinus has turned out town after all, how do you feel about 2birds?

---

I'm still suspicious of dragonspawn's play, but I'm much more suspicious of 2birds.

VOTE: 2birds1stone

Still need to catch up on the last two pages or so, but from what I can see Nova's still lurking hard, which is not great.

Oh, and side note, because it was brought up:

(her? them? does it matter to you TGS?)

It doesn't matter to me, you can use whatever pronouns you want

and i kind of like confusing people anyway

[Teen Girl Squad]

pretty good argument concerning the biggest anti town usually being town since scum won't take that chance. Can we take that chance?

all and all I'm thinking bird comes across as town to me.

Here's dragonspawn's townread of 2birds I mentioned earlier. He agrees that Astinus is acting too scummy to be scum and townreads 2birds for it, but later votes Astinus anyway. It's just strange to me.

Dragon, what are your thoughts on 2birds now?

[Teen Girl Squad]

Seriously?? "dude with 5 posts" = "probably town cause he got annyoed" but "actively trying to scumhunt" = "scummy" ????

asdjksjdkasdkj

[Teen Girl Squad]

I'm still pretty much null on Nova, but his response to me has made me want to hear more. It shows that he's around, just not participating, which is a little suspicious.

Nova, you say you agreed with other people's reads, could you be more specific? Do you have strong town reads on certain players?

As for guille, I'm leaning slightly town on him at the moment, I liked his answer to my question and he seems to be actively participating a bit more now.

[Teen Girl Squad]

I'm still not convinced of scum-Oilura, I could understand having your reads shaken up after a night phase and not really knowing where to go from there. Lord knows this setup has me confused, too.

dragonspawn's case on Mathdino is... odd. I gotta agree that it seems to be based pretty heavily on confirmation bias, and Math's voting patterns don't strike me as scummy. The fact that dragon's going after someone that, as far as I can tell, is being pretty widely town-read is what's so odd to me. I can't see why scum would bother, so I'm to wonder more and more if maybe dragon's just wrong-town? Then again, he's also voting for Oilura who currently is the biggest wagon, and I still stand by my previous thoughts on him, too.

I still am not into Nova's first response to me, or his Oilura vote. He's still mostly null to me, but I think depending on the lynch and flip today we should take a closer look at him later.

Still okay with my 2birds vote for the time being. Would like to second the "how do you feel about riabi/guille now" question.

[Teen Girl Squad]

@Oilura, guille has a decent amount of content now, it's kind of a stretch to call him a lurker at this point. How do you feel about it?

@Riabi, You say you think Clusk is scummy because his few posts don't have any real content, but why do you find NJAC less scummy? He's got just as few posts with just as little content in them.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Oh guille just asked the same thing. durr. oh well.

[Teen Girl Squad]

That's... a lot of really good points.

UNVOTE: 2birds1stone
VOTE: dragonspawn

[Teen Girl Squad]

Arrre you serious.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Yeah, seen it, too, for whatever it's worth. Don't see why the mod would choose to end the game over it but dang does that make things boring.

Way to go, you're 12.

[Teen Girl Squad]

UNVOTE: dragonspawn
VOTE: Oilura

[Teen Girl Squad]

On the bright side I was totally right about 2birds assuming this is true and now I feel ~good about myself~

[Teen Girl Squad]

Oh yeah, I guess that would put us at a disadvantage without any power roles for town, wouldn't it. Bleh.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Nope I'm just a brilliant genius :3