Open 576: The Enemy of my Enemy is my...Enemy? (Day 2)


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Post Post #5 (isolation #0) » Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:07 pm

Post by Mathdino »

VOTE: Teen Girl Squad
because dinosaurs eat teen girls.
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Post Post #37 (isolation #1) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:09 am

Post by Mathdino »

I was kinda hoping I'd be able to put in more effort D1.
UNVOTE: TGS
VOTE: Astinus
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Post Post #46 (isolation #2) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 1:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

UNVOTE: Astinus
Let's wait for mastin, Nova, and Riabi to check in, shall we?
I'd prefer not to let scum deprive us of basic D1 discussion.
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Post Post #48 (isolation #3) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 2:08 pm

Post by Mathdino »

No, but he's at L-1 and it's better safe than sorry when it comes to derphammers. I don't know most people around here so I don't know skill levels, and there are surely a lot of players who would quickhammer as town.
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Post Post #63 (isolation #4) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:13 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Fun, first game with mastin and she sextuple-posts xD.

@mastin: Useful questions but I can't really answer many of them; haven't played that many games really. My wiki's kept updated, although I didn't feel like putting this game in because it was abandoned and mostly consists of me translating a post restriction and bickering with scum about setup. I want to make a rule not to self-meta anything recent (at least not in gameposts, so you can make what you will of my play. That said, I played my first 3 games like shit and that was over a year ago, so I think an ISO of Mini 1617 will give you a better impression.

I'm confused as to your read on Astinus. He literally said what he did may not be helpful to VTs, when that's the only town role in the game. Explain?


Oh, yeah, and can someone please get Astinus off L-1 on friggin page 3? Thanks.
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Post Post #65 (isolation #5) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:25 pm

Post by Mathdino »

What in the world...
VOTE: Oilura
The simple act of townreading someone is not indicative of alignment. Why aren't you asking Astinus those questions instead of mastin? I really don't like how you're voting someone just so they answer a question. Also you're reeking of OMGUS.

Oh, yeah, and your votes need to be on a separate line.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #6) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Oilura, can you please unvote Astinus? This mod isn't counting votes/unvotes unless they're on separate lines.

You're misrepping hard. "confirmed town" isn't "pretty sure this is town".

Lemme ask you something: Do you really think Astinus's scumpartner would be dumb enough to out himself/herself on the 3rd page by being the only one to townread her? Second: Do you really think mastin would be able to stop an Astinus lynch by saying "Pretty sure this is town"? I'm not going to answer for her but put yourself in mastin's shoes for a sec.
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Post Post #72 (isolation #7) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:35 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Dude, you just did it again... votes must be on separate lines...

And did you seriously just go after someone for their mental state...
I'm having difficulty not indirectly insulting you for that. That's literally the worst meta argument I've ever heard.
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Post Post #104 (isolation #8) » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:26 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 78, Teen Girl Squad wrote:This looks like a "too scummy to actually be scum" argument. Which I mean, I get, I don't think scum would be so obvious most of the time, but it's still a fallacy. If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck it's probably scum and you should lynch that duck, or however that phrase goes.

I'm kind of confused about how you actually feel about Astinus? You said you doubted she was scum at first, and that you think she's misguided town, but you're also saying that she needed more pressure? When she was at L-1...?

What about some of the other unvotes that happened, mine and Fink's, do you find those suspicious, too?

I think I should note here that basically everyone except Astinus's partner are probably going to want to lynch her, and this this definitely the stage where bussing her is the optimal move for said partner; she's pretty much doomed at this point. 2birds1stone's analysis is very much not indicative of alignment, IMO.

@2birds1stone/whoever-else-accused-me-of-fishy-unvoting: It's called not wanting to shut down vital D1 discussion. Lynching Astinus right now, even if she's confirmed scum, helps no one but the other scumteam.

@Astinus: I actually lol'd at your last post.

Last thoughts: Fink seems town. TGS seems town. guille seems town (by his 2nd post, still no idea where mastin got the read from, haha).
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Post Post #107 (isolation #9) » Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:27 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 106, 2birds1stone wrote:I'm not sure I like your certainty in the face of this level of craziness. Any claim that amounts to "I'm not town" obviously needs to be lynched, but I have no idea how anyone can be as confident as you are.

And I'm not sure I like how quickly you're trying to lynch her. There are 3 more scum, and either 1 or 2 perspectives that are going to die tonight. Just because we're going to lynch Astinus doesn't mean we have to do it
right now
. All it does is help the other scumteam get a free pass today for not contributing.
Also, Astinus has a partner assuming she's scum. Keeping the day going gives us more to analyse come D2.

D1 quicklynch has never benefited any town.
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Post Post #115 (isolation #10) » Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

Mastin, what are your thoughts on Oilura's posts on page 1?
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Post Post #120 (isolation #11) » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:44 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I went through the wiki and I can't find what Astinus is talking about, but I do recall this lovely thread about self-voting and when it can be helpful.

tl;dr It says it's never helpful as town and only helpful as scum.
I welcome Astinus to show us her findings, but at the moment it looks like she's referencing something that she thought told her to self-vote as scum.
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Post Post #121 (isolation #12) » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:47 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I forgot to mention this, but I believe Astinus is trying to avoid claiming town because she's afraid the other scumteam will NK her and has a huge misconception of how multiball works.

Astinus is pretty much confirmed scum, mastin. Not because of self-voting but because there's no reason for town to act that way. Think.
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Post Post #127 (isolation #13) » Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:57 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Oilura, what's your opinion on the relation between TGS and mastin then?
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Post Post #130 (isolation #14) » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:27 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Please let me know if I'm crazy, because I know practically nothing about multiball games, especially situations like this. I came up with a possible plan though.

Let's say Astinus is part of scumteam 1. I think it's a reasonable assumption to make that basically the entire game except mastin thinks Astinus is scum (please correct me if I'm wrong).
What if town decided to outright refuse to lynch her indefinitely? That would give team 2 a choice, of whether or not to kill Astinus, and on what night.
A. Team 2 don't kill Astinus at all. Assuming town follows through on its promise, Astinus survives to LyLo and unless both team 2 players survive, either team 1 wins or scum ends up shooting each other and loses.
B. Team 2 kills Astinus on N1. Game continues as usual.
C. Team 2 DOESN'T kill Astinus on N1, instead opting to wait it out and hope town lynches her (and then kill her on N2 if not). Why is this not optimal? Because if town gets lucky and lynches the other team 1 player, team 1 gets a kill they would not have otherwise gotten, which is detrimental to team 2.
Therefore, optimal play means team 2 must kill Astinus N1 or risk getting shot later on. This benefits the town because it allows mafia to do our dirty work, saves a NK on a very towny player, and practically gives us another day since we get to use the lynch on someone else.

Let's say Astinus is really really really dumb town, and town refuses to lynch her.
Well, since there's a gigantic chance Astinus is scum, and since optimal play for both teams is to shoot her, both teams end up shooting her. This benefits the town even more because it uses BOTH team NKs on a player we'd lynch otherwise, and allows us to use the lynch on someone else.

So I think the correct move for town here would be to put Astinus up to the sacrificial altar, outright refuse to lynch Astinus no matter what, and use the day for scumhunting instead of crowding around confirmed scum.

Again, let me know if I'm crazy for trying to predict scum actions here, because I don't really know how multiball scum strategy works.
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Post Post #132 (isolation #15) » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:49 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Why is that worst-case? If Astinus is town, then you're advocating for a PL, which I don't think is the correct course for D1. And if she is town, good for us; we already promised not to lynch her and if both teams are actually alive at LyLo, they'd have to shoot each other for any chance of winning.

Also, if she's town, do you really think all 4 scum players are going to townread her?
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Post Post #133 (isolation #16) » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:51 pm

Post by Mathdino »

IMO, we should either lynch Astinus today or make a pact to not lynch her at all. Leaving her alive with the caveat that she may be lynched later makes her a huge LyLo liability, like you said.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #17) » Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:07 pm

Post by Mathdino »

The issue is just that if we promise to lynch Astinus on some day other than right now, it gives scum no motivation to kill her since we've already lined up a lynch on her.
I would either lynch her now for being scum, or not at all.

See, here's the thing. Team 2 (or both teams if she's town) also wants Astinus dead no matter what, whether through NK, lynch, or endgame. They too have the dilemma of "is claimed scum actually scum", along with the fact that if they don't shoot Astinus, they run the risk of what you said, 5P LyLo (with team 2) occurring with all of Team 1 dead, or a choice later on of whether to shoot Astinus and hope she's the last Team 1 scum. I know this goes into the whole "second-guessing scum" territory, but honestly, every argument about her from a town standpoint will also apply to a scum one.

Lemme ask you all something; I think my own answer to this question would be obvious:
If you were scum, would you shoot claimed scum tonight?
Does this answer change depending on whether we lynch town, Team 1, or Team 2?
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Post Post #137 (isolation #18) » Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:37 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Sorry for hyperactive posting but I just realised I forgot about the mafia cops. Hmm.

So if I were on team 2 and the cop were alive tonight, another possible course of action would be to kill whoever and investigate Astinus just to be sure. So:
D. Kill towniest player, investigate Astinus and send results to the other team 2 person. If town doesn't lynch her D2, NK her if scum and leave alone if town.
E. Kill towniest player, investigate Astinus and send results to 2nd towniest player. Now the question is what said player would do.
E1. Player says nothing for the time being. Team 2 kills player because it's likely they don't want to lynch their teammate. Team 2 kills Astinus the next night.
E2. Player outs a scum result on Astinus. Team 2 kills Astinus that night because optimal play.
E3. Player is town and outs a town result on Astinus. Good for town.
E4. Player is Astinus's scumpartner and outs a town result on Astinus. We're all fucked.

Note that E1 would be an exceptionally suicidal play on both sides; if the player is Astinus's scum partner, they'd just immediately lose, and if the player is town, well, they die and the investigation is never revealed.

Now, if we lynch Team 2 scum, it'd be impossible for them to, ah, go through with D (>.>). However, if we get a correct D1 lynch, town already has a pretty good advantage and none of these scenarios should be anything to worry about. We'd mostly have to hope Team 2 doesn't end up accidentally sending result to scum.
If we lynch town, it'd probably be more optimal to do D, which benefits town.

Of course, mafia could choose to not cop Astinus and it reverts to A, B, C.

It's late and I'm bored/tired. Am I overthinking this? Is there a scum strategy I'm not thinking of that could compromise this?

Edit: Your 2nd point is fair enough, yeah.
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Post Post #171 (isolation #19) » Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:16 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Oh for chrissake.
UNVOTE: Oilura
VOTE: Astinus

Say SOMETHING, dammit. That's L-1.

I'll look over everyone else later after some ISOs.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #20) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:06 am

Post by Mathdino »

Okay you know what

Astinus
, answer the below before someone waltzes into the thread and hammers you.


Are you a VT?
Why did you self-vote? (explain everything, don't leave anything out)
Where EXACTLY did you read that self-voting will help you (link please)?
Who is scum?
Who is town?


In descending order of importance. Astinus, look at it this way; if you ARE a VT, you should have nothing to hide when you're THIS close to dying. If you end up getting lynched because you won't talk, then you've officially been useless to the game and your faction.

So talk.
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Post Post #182 (isolation #21) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:36 am

Post by Mathdino »

Just in case it's useful to anyone, Astinus's current scum meta is literally softclaiming, waffling, and being generally useless. Newbie 1525, btw.
Personally I can't draw any conclusions considering we don't have her town meta but she's not exactly inconsistent with the scum meta I guess.

Sorry for general lack of ISOs, I got distracted. I'll have stuff up within the next 12 hours.
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Post Post #188 (isolation #22) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:51 am

Post by Mathdino »

That's pretty damning, mastin.

I've done my homework at the academy. A huge portion of what I recall involves scuMastin being reluctant to bus unless it absolutely benefits you, and a huge scumastintell is simply being wrong. Thusly, I hereby present to you all:

Spoiler: Every Time Mastin Has Mentioned Astinus
In post 57, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7, Astinus wrote:VOTE: Astinus
Because I want to.
Pretty sure this is town.
In post 112, mastin2 wrote:
In post 61, 2birds1stone wrote:In my experience, the most anti-town play comes from town; scum are just too cautious to do certain things. Scum do not want to come into the game with a self-vote and keep that self-vote on even at L-1, and scum do not really want the attention of holding a self-vote. If I had to guess, I'd say this is some extremely misguided attempt at sparking discussion (and sure, it worked, but it's fucking WIFOM and liable to turn into a theory discussion).

The unvote struck me as a way of looking town without actually contributing to town. Outside of newbie games, it seems safe to say that nobody's going to derphammer a declared L-1; on top of that, the unvote only served to remove pressure from a player who really needed more of it.
So up to this point, this is almost what makes me pretty dang sure that Astinus is town. I've had over 150 games on-site (so many that I've entirely lost count of the number), not to mention, numerous ones off-site. (That's excluding EpicMafia in which the number would jump to thousands upon thousands.) In all of my games, across all sites, without the setup dictating it as a valid play...I've seen maybe one or two scum try this? Somewhere in that small range. In all of my games, across all sites, without the setup dictating it as valid play...I've seen, oh, probably a dozen or so town try it. (Myself included. Admittedly, mostly in my arrogant ignorant youth as a player, butstill, I did it as town plenty.) So it's not like scum never try it. It's that the sheer audacity to the point of stupidity means that only the stupidest or most insane of all scum will attempt it. It could come from scum, sure. It's 95% likely to come from town. Thus, why I'm pretty sure of Astinus being town.
In post 153, mastin2 wrote:
I cannot imagine there is a single place in the wiki that advises players to self-vote as Vanilla Town. And like everyone's said, in this setup, if you're not Vanilla Town, you're scum.
Actually, there's several. I've actually been keeping a bit of a tight lip on some of the strongest reasons Astinus is a townread (some on the wiki, some on personal game experience I have, some in MD--I avoided posting in Thor's thread but it goes without saying I disagree), because I want Astinus to come forward with content and say in her(?) own words her view, unfiltered by her holding back as she(?) currently is.

Basically, I don't want to strongly defend Astinus, especially not if I'm inventing reasons that simply aren't there in the first place. I want Astinus to do that. Which is why I'm holding back the stronger reasons for the read. (Basically, the idea is that
after
Astinus gives her reasons, that I would give my own, because if I gave mine first, Astinus could draw from them, whereas I have no need to draw from her. Experience gap and all that.) But Astinus is in fact my strongest townread.
In post 155, mastin2 wrote:
In post 121, Mathdino wrote:Astinus is pretty much confirmed scum, mastin. Not because of self-voting but because there's no reason for town to act that way. Think.
I am. Which is why Astinus is town. I have VERY good reasons, and I really want to explain them, but I also really don't want to reveal them before Astinus posts content besides "I had my reasons" and "I'm doing the best I can for my faction".

Frankly, if Astinus keeps doing that, then I'll let her die. She'll die town, yes, but I'm not going to do her work for her, even though I very obviously can and to some extent am. She's had her moment of obscurity. But I want something from her. It doesn't even have to be a full-reveal. Content via scumhunting. Or content by revealing her reasons for doing the move. Preferably both, but either would work. She does that, then I will give you why she is without a doubt town. Because if what I think is going on, is going on...then pretty much now is the time for her to say it's going on.
In post 156, mastin2 wrote:
In post 129, 2birds1stone wrote:Astinus honestly does read town outside of the scumclaim, for the reasons Mastin outlined.
The scumclaim wasn't even a scumclaim believe it or not if I'm right, but again, I don't want to say why it wasn't without Astinus coming in here, first. You're right about one thing, though: if Astinus
doesn't
give us something, then there's no reason to keep her around. Someone refusing to give content has no place in the game. She's town, but that's not an excuse to allow her to get away with it, because she's currently a massive distraction. I won't be voting her, but again, if she doesn't give me reason to continue defending her, then I'm not going to offer resistance to her lynch, either; now's the time for her to step up.

Also, I realize there's a fair amount of theory debate going on, here. My first post was made in a joking tone, but it actually kinda
is
right; this is effectively a newbie game in the open queue, with a fair number of SEs and only one true player considering themself an IC. (Me.) So I can contribute somewhat, there, but again, I can't reveal everything because a fair amount of the theory debate revolves around Astinus.


Analysis still coming, promise.

Edit: Goddammit Oilura, we still could've used discussion. mastin's reads are still useful to us even if she's Astinus's partner.
Your shutting down discussion seriously reads Team 2 scum to me.
Guess I got a deadline for the reads then.
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Post Post #189 (isolation #23) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:56 am

Post by Mathdino »

I have no idea when the hell the mod will get on, so I'm just gonna spam post some stuff just in case.

2birds1stone - Town AF - There's almost 0 chance that he's Astinus's scumbuddy considering early interaction (doesn't read at all like distancing, along with casting suspicion on me for unvoting). The theory discussion is also incredibly town just judging by his responses to me, along with the fact that he too didn't notice I forgot the scum cops.
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Post Post #190 (isolation #24) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:04 am

Post by Mathdino »

Fink: Almost town AF - Solid contributions to the game, appreciated his thoughts on Astinus-chicken, appreciated his unvote post (seems like he legit wants more discussion), and I largely agree with mastin's thoughts on him, which again are still useful as mastin also seeks to scumhunt.

That said, I do have an issue with this post, where he claims that he "cannot figure out what I think of people that doesn't shift drastically depending on Astinus' flip and/or reasoning". The problem here is that we have 2 scummembers who know as much as we do about Astinus's flip, and their scumminess is completely independent of that. He seems reluctant to go hunting for Team 2.

Fink, if possible, can you explain that post?
Also, reads?
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Post Post #191 (isolation #25) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:16 am

Post by Mathdino »

Above 2 were reads off the top of my head, let's get the minor ones and low activity people out of the way now.

Nova: Hmm, if I had to guess I'd say town, but multiball is throwing this off. Inclined to believe her on her opening post, but the fact that she hunted Astinus in a reasonable manner doesn't help get a read on him. Leantown for now.

Riabi: Similar to the above. Very similar. Leans town, but all posts have been on Team 1 so far so I can't be as sure as usual. Waiting on his reads.

NJAC: Null, but open to being PoE'd to a scumread later. Waiting on material.

Clusk: Ooh, damn, bad reason to prolong the day, mate. Lean scum for now.

guille: I really like #76 and I really like #123. guille shows clear hunting for Team 2 in the former, the push on Oilura is good, and in the latter he reaches out to Astinus to see her thoughts on the matter. If he was scum opposite Astinus, there'd be no reason to reach out to an unpredictable scum enemy. Way up there in the townlist.
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Post Post #192 (isolation #26) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

Oh hell I was just ISOing mastin when I realised I came up with the exact same reads as her inadvertently.
Dammit.

Well, I can use mastin's PoE here. I'm almost certain the remaining scum are within {Clusk, dragonspawn, Oilura, TGS, NJAC (iffy on this one), mastin}. Judging by everyone's reactions to Astinus reading through the thread, I don't think anyone's really bussing suspiciously and so far the most suspish reaction is coming from mastin, so going with her as scumpartner.

Of those, Oilura's definitely still my top scumread. Gonna ISO her with a few other players, and then I'll ISO dragonspawn, TGS, and mastin altogether to see if there's any credence to the dragonspawn and TGS both being scum theory.
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Post Post #194 (isolation #27) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:32 am

Post by Mathdino »

Interesting, can you explain why?
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Post Post #196 (isolation #28) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:49 am

Post by Mathdino »

Hmm, I'm swinging between "that's a good point, I'll incorporate that" and "that makes no sense".

To go the latter route: Why would mastin pick an extremely scummy player to defend with some shoddy reasoning based simply on statistical likelihood of her being town? Your chances get pretty screwed up considering Astinus's scumclaim. And because of that, wouldn't scuMastin know that defending Astinus like that would have a fair likelihood of getting herself lynched?

I don't think mastin would defend Astinus at all unless there was a possibility of stopping that lynch, whether town OR scum. However I'm having a really really hard time seeing mastin as scum and not Astinus's partner.
The good point in your post was that you're right, this seems like a circumstance where the correct choice would be to give in and bus her partner. But IMO, if we find Astinus's partner, mastin is nigh confirmed town to me.
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Post Post #198 (isolation #29) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 4:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

Mastin Academy on self-voters. Nulltell according to her, dependent on the motivation.

Dug up this (scum) post from L4D Mafia. To summarise, a VT RVS self-voted, and mastin's scumpartner jokingly self-voted, which mastin bussed.

I don't know, man. I very much don't know mastin well enough to know what she'd think of a scenario THIS weird. Gut would say she wouldn't townread Astinus based on that, though.
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Post Post #199 (isolation #30) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 4:37 am

Post by Mathdino »

Something came up, I'm not gonna be able to finish promised analysis before deadline. I don't think Oilura's had enough interactions in order for me to get an associative read, but if I had to guess, her partner would be in her nullreads.

If Mastinus isn't a thing, then my guess at Astinus's partner would be someone who was against people unvoting and delaying the lynch a bit, since they would want as little interaction with her as possible. This means Clusk and Oilura.

G'night, folks.
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Post Post #222 (isolation #31) » Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:27 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Was gonna say the same thing against 2birds except the last part; I only stated suspicion because I PoE'd him.

@dragonspawn: Your NKA sucks. Fink was one of the towniest people in the game. That's it. Scum wants to cut down on the people who they can't lynch.
Mastin? I'm guessing scum either killed her because they agreed with "If Astinus is town, mastin is scum", or because of exactly what she said: she just gets NK'd a lot because she's good like that.

Here's the thing with NKA. If there's not an obvious reason, sure, you can try to second-guess the scum, see who the NK benefits. But in this case, Occam's Razor works best.

I really don't like how you're trying to muddy it up by starting there. NKA is never a good starting point. Furthermore, by no means did Fink display 'strong suspicions' for me. He was a protown player who predictably flipped town.
I never actually got around to ISOing the suspects in my scumlist by PoE, so lemme do that real quick.
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Post Post #231 (isolation #32) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:03 am

Post by Mathdino »

Untrue. He said my calling out the misrep made him nervous. NOT that he had 'strong suspicions' for me. Saying he had strong suspicions when he was simply 'nervous' is in fact misrep.

Saying something like "Hmm, here's some evidence that may vaguely point to a protown player, but I'm not going to say anything" is very fencesitty and seems like you're looking for public approval before you make a move. Are you suspicious of me or not? Are you afraid people will jump on you if you say you are?

D1 was not a wasted day. Scumhunting by looking at the interactions of those who are ALIVE is far better. A townflip from the NK in multiball means jackshit, since even the scum couldn't know if they were town or not.
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Post Post #232 (isolation #33) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:12 am

Post by Mathdino »

Considering the last information given by Oilura, I'm becoming a little more confident that he's a fish out of water on MS. He's clearly not a newb to mafia, but he's very much playing like someone who is used to playing in a very different way.

Also, Oilura's apparent method of finding scum is the fact that the best play for scum is to do exactly what town would do. I think Oilura scum would wait before quickhammering so as not to catch suspicion the next day, since he's clearly somewhat self-aware. Yes, I know this falls prey to WIFOM, however I seriously doubt he'd quickhammer to make us think he's town, that'd be silly.

Still haven't gotten around to ISOing dragonspawn and TGS, will get around to that.
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Post Post #238 (isolation #34) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:56 am

Post by Mathdino »

ISO'd dragonspawn, TGS, and mastin (mastin because why not, her thoughts are helpful).

#10 by dragonspawn, gives basically a "WTF was that" to Astinus but without suspicion. Then switches back to RVS mode with #11, which I'm not really sure how to interpret. See, I've always found that kind of RVS serious-type suspicion to be a bit scummy, especially right after he made a valid remark against Astinus. #28 strengthens my qualms; "[TGS's Astinus vote] wasn't random. Though I suppose the one for me might not have been either". It's the latter part of that sentence that just seems off, keeping with the whole "Lemme point this out, could mean something but I'm not going to say anything yet". Haha, #85 is kind of funny. He jumps on Astinus's scumclaim by saying it "sets off huge red flags" but then goes and asks the most useless question of "The only question is he wolf or mafia?" Nice contribution, mate.

Here we have dragonspawn seconding a TGS question. The post above it asks another useless question. The post below it gives townreads to 2birds and Fink, says "astinus is completely anti town and even scummy in his play so far", and scumreads me and mastin for no discernible reason, which is funny because he jumped on mastin for not initially explaining her Oilura suspicion. Also interesting is he distanced from TGS, mastin, and me after our first posts, but he only scumreads me and mastin.
dragonspawn, I'd like you to explain why you had those scumreads back then.


#119 by TGS sets off a bit of a red flag for me. It responds to mastin reasonably, makes a fair point on Astinus, but out of the blue asks
In 119, TGS wrote:@dragonspawn, how do you feel about NJAC's posts?
and never mentions NJAC again until twilight. What?
TGS, why did you specifically ask dragonspawn about specifically NJAC, instead of, say, asking everyone, or asking dragonspawn ALL his reads?

Then 3 posts later dragonspawn goes and votes and interrogates NJAC, almost as if on cue. In #146 by TGS, she does point this out and call out dragonspawn for buddying her, to which he responds "I'm buddying you for answering your question teen girl?" TGS follows up with @dragonspawn, You're buddying because I think you're just saying what you think I want to hear. No need to misrep

The rest isn't really significant. mastin makes the odd claim that dragonspawn and TGS are extremely suspicious but on opposite scumteams and that one is buddying the other. Doesn't make sense because scum doesn't know the other scum, but her suspicions are very valid. Then DS and TGS threaten to hammer one after the other and then give last words one after the other (No, 'one after the other' isn't something noteworthy, just telling the story). TGS's last words say that if Astinus flips scum, dragonspawn and Oilura are possible partners, and lines up lurkers and mastin if she flips town.

Then dragon's last words are just that he doesn't feel like reading up to post thoughts. Odd. Consider: a townie would want to post last thoughts just in case they get NK'd and said thoughts prove useful. I mean, if one of the scumteams was shooting for scum, dragon was at serious risk. A scum player, on the other hand, would want to avoid unnecessary reads lists and such so they don't get analysed if he flips scum. His lack of effort here is pinging me.

So what do we have? We have a player who is very prone to point things out and ask pointed yet useless questions, had odd behaviour during RVS, and half buddied TGS.

In post 206, mastin2 wrote:When Astinus flips town, look in TGS, dragonspawn, Oilura, and Clusk for your scum if I don't make it.
Hate to pull appeal to authority as my last point, but I'm pretty confident now with dragonscum.

VOTE: dragonspawn

Edit: I haven't read any of the above series of posts. If any of those nullify points in this case, I'll adjust as necessary.
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Post Post #239 (isolation #35) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 4:06 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 233, dragonspawn wrote:nka analysis isn't a good starting point? Why not?

and you seem to think I think my strong suspicions comment is what's throwing causing the miscommunications. I should have said strongest. I wasn't trying to imply fink was arguing that math was definitely scum. I meant to say that math was the one he had the strongest suspicions or concerns on. Others were just questions or random votes.

if you haven't noticed, I didn't vote for math. If I thought it was damning evidence I would have. But the fact is it funk was pretty obviously town. He could have been killed for that. Someone might have killed him to set someone up. They may have also killed him because they thought he was on the other scum team.

so considering the multiple reasons possible I don't think there is anything inherently wrong with going through their interactions. Should I presume you guys dont want me going through mastins interactions or is that okay because he was suspicious of me?
It's not a good starting point because most people suck at it and try to glean too much out of it. Once you go past 1 layer of WIFOM, the analysis pretty much becomes dumb/useless.

The funny thing though is you just WIFOM'd your own analysis here. Your series of Fink posts had a huge subtext of "Pssst, mebbe Math killed Fink" but now you're agreeing that scum could've killed him because obvtown. And then you WIFOM'd yourself saying he could've been killed to set
someone
me up. The multiple reasons possible doesn't make it 'inherently wrong', it just makes it completely useless. If Fink made good points, then we can use those and know he was being honest about them. If mastin made good points (and she did), then we can use those. But as it is, your series of Fink quotes was pointless IIoA and had underhanded suspicion casting. If you think it points to me as scum, just say so.

In post 237, dragonspawn wrote:he was the one who said day 1 was a waste.
Dont look at me.


I've also been clear from early on that I find you suspicious. I haven't decided of that means you're scum. Hence why I am still looking
I lol'd at how unnecessarily defencive the bolded part is. Anyway, my point is that you use NKA as a way to make D1 not a waste, when NKA is probably one of the more useless ways to analyse D1. Again, look at the players who are alive.

You haven't been clear at all; you gave a scumread on me once and that was it. Please explain this read and whether your NKA applies to it.
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Post Post #240 (isolation #36) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 4:07 am

Post by Mathdino »

EBWOP: "
You haven't been clear at all; you gave a scumread on me once after criticising my RVS vote and that was it.
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Post Post #241 (isolation #37) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:07 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 223, Riabi wrote:Probably town: Mathdino (I agree that 137 was probably a town-slip), TGS
Leaning town: Clusk, 2birds
Neutral/Can't Tell: NJAC, Nova, dragonspawn
Leaning scum: Guille (This is mostly a gut-read)
Probably scum: Oilura

New opinions, yum. Didn't read this the first time.

Can you explain your reads on TGS and guille?
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Post Post #243 (isolation #38) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:44 am

Post by Mathdino »

...
Okay. Gonna take this chronologically.

You said early on you had a 'slight scumread' on me but you didn't explain it at all and didn't follow up, so your saying today that you were always suspicious of me was a surprise due to your lack of clarity and explanation. You need to explain them BECAUSE you haven't been clear. Don't try to dodge the question by criticising it.

Yes, I understood your issues with mastin. But you've still yet to explain what it was ABOUT my style that was setting off alarms. I'm not going to try to poke holes in your early scumreads, but the fact that you've had that read on me since the very beginning due to 'gaming style' and won't explain it is worrisome.

You analysed a dead guy. I analysed you. Trying to find inconsistencies in the attacker is not a good defence.
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Post Post #245 (isolation #39) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:58 am

Post by Mathdino »

Oh, okay, that makes sense. Good test.

I like the above post.
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Post Post #247 (isolation #40) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 6:15 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 242, dragonspawn wrote:I made it clear my suspicion of mastin was gut reaction to his "I'm so awesome" intro. But since I don't know him well enough I wasn't sure if it was actually scummy behavior that was setting me off or his gaming style. The same issue with you. I suspect you but it could just be your gaming style setting off alarms.

This is not an answer. This is a restatement of why you scumread mastin (I understood that part). This does not explain what it was about my playstyle that could be construed as scummy behaviour.

But hey, if it makes you happy to misrep my reasons for voting you and sarcastically deflect questions and cases, feel free. It just gives town more ammunition to go after scum.
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Post Post #254 (isolation #41) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:40 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I was waiting for Oilura to respond just in case, didn't want to comment on dragonspawn just in case.

Your going after Oilura for opening with a defence is bull. Everyone freaked out about the hammer in twilight; if he DIDN'T open with a defence of the hammer, there'd have been bigger issues. Even if he thought there was nothing wrong with it, you're right, someone did chew her out.
The entire town.


Not sure what I think of Riabi agreeing with that case; I don't really want to FoS someone for being wrong. Can I vote DS again though?
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Post Post #256 (isolation #42) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:53 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Lol, can you link us to that game?

What're your thoughts on how DS has responded to me last page?
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Post Post #259 (isolation #43) » Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:33 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Subject: Newbie 1292: Class of '13 mafia. GAME OVER

Keybladewielder wrote:
In post 296, theamatuer wrote:
In post 295, Keybladewielder wrote:Didn't you get my Pms?

whats this about PMs


Umm what?

Oh god I love KBW xD. Played a game once with him in 2013 and about 3 people tried to policy him before he even posted. Luckily he replaced out.

Anyway, not sold on TGS yet; it's entirely possible DS purposefully buddied TGS to set up her lynch if DS goes.
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Post Post #262 (isolation #44) » Tue Nov 04, 2014 2:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

Why are you not voting?
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Post Post #267 (isolation #45) » Tue Nov 04, 2014 4:05 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 264, dragonspawn wrote:Am I buddying teen girl or in a rivalry or setting her up? I find maths dense of oilura. Interesting. Is that why you are gunning for me? You mad that I'm going at your partner?

In post 265, dragonspawn wrote:trying to rush a lynch?

^These are among the worst lines of loaded questioning I've ever seen. If you want to know my motivation behind something, you can just ask.

1. All 3. You've displayed very clear awkward interactions toward TGS which involve both buddying and distancing. This is scummy behaviour. However, IMO, given TGS's fairly townish D2 behaviour, I think it's possible you're attaching yourself to her so we lynch her if you flip scum.
2. If you read my case, you'll see why I'm gunning for you.
3. Please elaborate on why you think I'm scum with Oilura.
4. No, but disparity between reads and where one places their vote is off, so I asked a question about his motivation BEFORE I assumed he was trying to avoid being on a wagon or something. If you get to L-1 prematurely, I'll unvote. Ya know. Just like I did with Astinus.

Feel like expanding on your D1 suspicions of me instead of twisting everything I've done D2 to look scummy?

Edit: I second the above question.
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Post Post #272 (isolation #46) » Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:29 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Ooh, I like Nova's playstyle, but I'm not sure I like Nova-for-town. Will respond more at computer.

Want more activity than me and 2birds vs DS vs TGS pl0x.
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Post Post #279 (isolation #47) » Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Oilura, you have more townreads than there are town. Jussayin.
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Post Post #280 (isolation #48) » Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:09 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 271, Nova-Radiance wrote:So you'd have me post random bullshit to produce original content? I'll just disregard the excellent points that influenced my reads, to be original.

Now I'm curious, would you have me not vote for someone who said the person they were voting was probably not scum, or not vote at all?

Like Mathdino pointed out, the phrase "don't look at me" is extremely defensive, and the way dragonspawn pushed some attention back to him instead of defending himself is suspicious.

TGS in post #244 saying that she finds the fact people are going after something that was scummy just because it was in RVS. Doing something scummy is indicative of scum no matter when it's done, and the fact you are calling it suspicious that they're bringing up that evidence against you bothers me.

Okay, so what I said is the opposite of how I see this now. Turns out posting from phone makes every post look like an incredibly useful wall and I got the impression Nova was walling up a sheep argument.

2birds, indignation isn't always town, it's just how manufactured it looks. In this case, it's subtle enough for me. Good points on DS and TGS, though I can't agree with the TGS-being-wrong-makes-her-scum.
In post 273, 2birds1stone wrote:TGS just started pushing against me because I picked her dspawn's buddy, dragonspawn flip will bear this out.

Possible. If we're lucky, scum will cross kill tonight (likely on her) since a ton of people seem to think she's either DS's buddy or scum on the opposite side.
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Post Post #282 (isolation #49) » Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:31 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I don't usually, but is it too much to hope for a crosskill in multiball?
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Post Post #288 (isolation #50) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 5:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 286, Teen Girl Squad wrote:Seriously?? "dude with 5 posts" = "probably town cause he got annyoed" but "actively trying to scumhunt" = "scummy" ????

asdjksjdkasdkj

This is actually a really scummy post. Looks like she's trying too hard.
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Post Post #289 (isolation #51) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 5:38 am

Post by Mathdino »

Hey
guille
,
Nova
, there's no harm in placing a vote, ya know. If someone tries to hammer before we get enough discussion I'll rope them myself. But as it is, this day is moving pretty slowly besides me vs dragonspawn. I do appreciate guille's interrogating though.

If anything, vote to make the game more interesting, to put pressure, to get reactions.

Oilura
, try harder. I understand what your issue is, but scum here are harder to find than on other sites. You won't find them by searching for people who suck at the game. Sort your townreads maybe, use PoE. I assure you that there's scum in the active people of the past 2 pages.

TGS
, what're your reads on guille and Nova?

Nova
, you seem fairly passive and observational; a good amount of your posts are just answering questions rather than pushing your opinions. Is this playstyle? Having trouble getting into the game?
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Post Post #290 (isolation #52) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 5:53 am

Post by Mathdino »

moar questions, you guys are a quiet lot
In post 249, Riabi wrote:TGS started as a gut read, but an ISO of him (her? them? does it matter to you TGS?) helped shore up my opinion. For example, in (and a bit in as well)
he seems willing to change his opinion based on new evidence
.

Also, I like some of the questions he asks, like trying to get dragonspawn's opinion of NJAC. To me, it seems like he's really trying to solve a puzzle. And, while in a multiball everyone is doing that to a certain degree, I've not seen a lot of explicitly scummy behavior that I can tell. It seems to me like the scummiest thing he did was to tunnel Astinus, but, a lot of us did that, so that certainly can't be considered scummy.

On a different note, DS is really starting to become more suspicious to me. Post is just plain bad, and the first part of is only slightly better. So, while I'm not ready to change my vote just yet FOS on dragonspawn for sure.

That being said, there is one thing I do like about .
His analysis about Oil seems spot on
. The early defensive post from Oil re: the hammer is weird, and I'd like to know why that post was made as well.

Riabi
: You already admitted that everyone is trying to scumhunt, so why does being willing to change opinions and have spot-on analysis townish exempt one from scummy behaviour? Check mastin's and 2birds's ISOs if you want to see the main issues people have with TGS.
Anyway, what's your read on Nova atm?

In post 284, guille2015 wrote:Nova can be Town for now.

Why?

In post 255, 2birds1stone wrote:At the same time, it is consistent with his mafia upbringing, specifically "everyone's playstyle is to NOT GET LYNCHED NO MATTER WHAT". Oilura in general is very difficult to read because of coming from a radically different meta.
In post 258, 2birds1stone wrote:I'd find it interesting that dragonspawn and Oilura are not of the same alignment were I not already set on dspawn/TGS.

For those of you who aren't set on dspawn/TGS, it may be worth noting that dspawn/Oilura is extremely unlikely.

2birds
: You haven't really taken a stance on Oilura since very early game. But in the latter post you're speculating on what scumteam he's on. What's your current read on him given the meta information? Is he in your lynchpool?
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Post Post #295 (isolation #53) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:13 am

Post by Mathdino »

You haven't mentioned Riabi as a scumread before. I think you're the first person to. Care to expand on that?
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Post Post #301 (isolation #54) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 2:08 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 298, 2birds1stone wrote:I'm a little unhappy about guille vs Riabi, I was kind of hoping we could all silently agree to townread each other and PoE the game out.

Okay, this post gave me flashes of 2birds1scum. You're implicitly proposing a townbloc, or at least hoping for one that you're part of.

Fishy. You also choose to say you're unhappy with the conflict developing, rather than directly criticising the arguments made.
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Post Post #304 (isolation #55) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:48 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 302, 2birds1stone wrote:
Mathdino wrote:
In post 298, 2birds1stone wrote:I'm a little unhappy about guille vs Riabi, I was kind of hoping we could all silently agree to townread each other and PoE the game out.

Okay, this post gave me flashes of 2birds1scum. You're implicitly proposing a townbloc, or at least hoping for one that you're part of.

Fishy. You also choose to say you're unhappy with the conflict developing, rather than directly criticising the arguments made.
That's how townblocs generally work.

The arguments made aren't worth commenting on yet, the conflict is.

Townblocs are not formed by people talking about them. They evolve as the game goes on.
I don't know, it looks like you're trying to solidify your townread status in a lot of people's minds.

So hang on, you're unhappy with the guille vs Riabi conflict but you choose not to dissect guille's argument or take it apart, prove him wrong?
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Post Post #308 (isolation #56) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 3:58 am

Post by Mathdino »

^This is very likely to be town.

Note the very nuanced reads on Nova and Oilura. However, I can definitely see guille's suspicion of a possible Riabi/TGS. One question,

@Riabi:
See, I still don't quite understand why, say, 2birds is below TGS on your list. You concede that TGS has displayed some scummy behaviour, but her willingness to scumhunt outweighs that. What makes you put 2birds below someone who we agree has been at least slightly scummy?
Also, thoughts on guille's behaviour between your last 2 posts?
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Post Post #310 (isolation #57) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:12 am

Post by Mathdino »

Took only a bit of meta to show town-Riabi. Her reads as town are waaaay better than as scum. More detailed, less based on verdicts and more based on analysis. That said,

In post 7, Riabi wrote:So, this is my first game here, from looking through a lot of the old forums, it looks like random voting is somewhat common 'round these parts, so, with that in mind, I'm going to VOTE: TRex and TRex, if you want me to change my vote, it's up to you to convince me you aren't scum. Aren't all dinosaurs inherently scummy?

y u no early vote me :(
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Post Post #311 (isolation #58) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:13 am

Post by Mathdino »

EBWOP: *His
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Post Post #312 (isolation #59) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:16 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 266, guille2015 wrote:
In post 264, dragonspawn wrote:Am I buddying teen girl or in a rivalry or setting her up? I find maths dense of oilura. Interesting. Is that why you are gunning for me? You mad that I'm going at your partner?

I think you were creating a rivalry earlier on. I never agreed to the other two positions. I think my position is pretty clear.

I don't know what "I find math's dense of Oilura" means.

Who do you think is scum Dragonspawn?
In post 269, Teen Girl Squad wrote:
In post 90, dragonspawn wrote:pretty good argument concerning the biggest anti town usually being town since scum won't take that chance. Can we take that chance?

all and all I'm thinking bird comes across as town to me.


Here's dragonspawn's townread of 2birds I mentioned earlier. He agrees that Astinus is acting too scummy to be scum and townreads 2birds for it, but later votes Astinus anyway. It's just strange to me.

Dragon, what are your thoughts on 2birds now?

Dragonspawn
, please answer these questions.
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Post Post #316 (isolation #60) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:29 am

Post by Mathdino »

He has 1 scum game and 1 recent towngame, both with fairly short ISOs. The general feel that I got was that scum-Riabi was more interested in getting verdicts on people, labeling them as lean-scum or town or null or the like, while town-Riabi was more interested in analysing people and THEN coming to a verdict. In essence, scum-him fits the evidence to the reads.

But sure, I'll wait.

Edit: I figured you were quoting in chrono order, and since I saw you quote Oilura at about post 300, I thought you'd missed them.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #61) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:32 am

Post by Mathdino »

Well that's only my read AFTER meta :P
There's definitely more to that read, haha.
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Post Post #323 (isolation #62) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 6:20 am

Post by Mathdino »

I correctly predicted that the entire day would revolve around Astinus and her dumb move, and when this happens, player interactions are always more difficult to analyse pre-flip when one player goes and hijacks the day. Furthermore, I knew it'd probably end earlier than usual despite our collective best efforts to promote further discussion.

You'll also note that I in no way stopped putting in effort, and I tried to invent a possible strategy to deal with Astinus in order to get more out of that discussion than "Astinus confscum, let's lynch". And at the end of the day, I did watch interactions between people and came up with reads.

If I wanted an excuse to not put in effort, why didn't I follow through with that? 37 was a sarcastic comment, nothing more.

Edit: Implying answering a question to the best of my ability is buddying. I want people to be able to effectively metaread me because it doesn't get us caught up on pointless debates about the past.
Honestly, part of the reason I jumped on Oilura was the comment on mental stability and trying to use that as a reason to lynch mastin. It pissed me off.

Edit2: Uh, how's that a backtrack? I said I was hoping to put in more effort than would be required to lynch Astinus. In 107, I tried to promote that by not encouraging a quicklynch.
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Post Post #325 (isolation #63) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 6:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

Interesting how much confbias your arguments have and how little that things can change your mind.

I was suspicious of mastin. But scumastin in multiball is still worth listening to. In fact, anyone at ANY point is worth listening to despite your read on them, if they make a good point. Since I came up with the same townreads as mastin, it follows that her PoE is effective for me.

I'm guessing you'll notice where I changed my mind on Oilura if you keep reading my ISO. In essence, the new information Oilura presented after everyone raged at him for hammering put his actions in a whole new light.
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Post Post #326 (isolation #64) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 6:29 am

Post by Mathdino »

Furthermore, I didn't analyse your ISO yesterday. You were on my suspicions list due to PoE. When I decided to go through it and after seeing the argument that you were buddying TGS, it pinged badly to me.
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Post Post #329 (isolation #65) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 6:34 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 327, dragonspawn wrote:because when you realized how scummy it looked you needed to backtrack. Hence the quick unvote and call for more time.

I don't think I understand you here. Astinus flipped town. Are you saying I unvoted in order to defend her and not get her lynched? Because this argument only makes sense if Astinus and I were buddies.

I realised how scummy it looked when she first made the self-vote. I backtracked after some bastard put her at L-1 within the first few pages. Guess what? She was hammered anyway :facepalm: .

Maaayyybe the majority of my games have involved a derphammer or a speedlynch of some sort and I'm tired of reckless wagons that cut off discussion.

Edit: Thanks Riabi. And no, I don't care about your random vote, haha. Was just the first post I saw when I meta'd you.
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Post Post #331 (isolation #66) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 6:38 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 315, dragonspawn wrote:Wait two seconds math. Sheesh. Takes time to go through everything.


oil is probably my biggest scum read right now. Math probably second. Still haven't seen much fro. Njac or nova so maybe them.

as for birds in still thinking he is town. Misguided about me and I'm not understanding the statement I quoted but still pretty much a town read.

I'll have some more reads later when I can look through everything again.

Riabi you missed this. He directly answered the questions here.

But yeah, it's crap, mostly due to him seeing a scummy behaviour and assuming everyone else, including me, would find it scummy (which would cause the backpedaling).

Edit: What? I really don't understand you here, DS. The new information on you and TGS makes YOU scummier than it makes TGS. Whether or not TGS is scum with you, on opposite teams, or is town, this isn't affecting my read on you.
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Post Post #336 (isolation #67) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 7:09 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 332, Riabi wrote:Dino, what do you think of Oilura's hammer and subsequent defense? Do either seem scummy to you?
Yes, actually, the hammer seems super scummy at first glance. However, I think it should be clear that had Oilura NOT defended himself for that move (after everyone bitching about it in twilight), most people including me would've condemned him for it. I really don't get why coming out of the gate explaining yourself is in any way a scummy move.

Now, said defence makes it clear that Oilura is from a different site and there, there are clearly no problems with hammering who you think is scum. Note that this matches his general behaviour fairly well, including the fact that he townreads pretty much everyone talking. Scum-Oilura shouldn't have a problem making up some crap case on someone talkative. He was able to run a case on mastin. What's the difference? His scumhunting seems to involve going after the worst players, and assuming that anyone defending said players must be the partner. This is true on other sites. Bussing and distancing is far more prevalent here, and WKing happens most often from scum to town, or frustrated town to town.

I think Oilura's a fish out of water who needs to figure out how to breathe. And even if he is useless, his actions don't really follow a scum motivation with all the info at hand. If I were to go after Oil for having dumb reads, that'd be a PL, and I'm not okay with policy lynching someone in a game with 2 NKs.

In post 333, dragonspawn wrote:you invited because you realized it looked scummy to say there was no more effort needed and because she was at L1 and it was obvious if she got lynched your vote would look bad.
Yeah, except... it wasn't scummy. And no one thought it was scummy. And I DID put in effort, that's what you're forgetting. And you're completely misinterpreting that post. When I say I was hoping it'd take more effort, I mean
A. Dammit this day is going to be completely hijacked by this scum, trying to analyse other people's interactions will be difficult, and
B. Wow this isn't even a challenge, there's our scum. That's boring.

In post 334, dragonspawn wrote:what does tgs have to do with our discussion on oil?

Oh I got mixed up with pronouns; I thought you were saying TGS looked scummier today than yesterday since you quoted me talking about TGS.
DS, you're making the fatal error of thinking what you see should be obvious to everyone and that Oilura's D2 actions are
inherently and objectively
scummy, therefore because I don't agree with you, I must be scum as well. That's not how this works. If you read my thought process, you'll see how my mind's been changed.

You'll note that we all made the same mistake thinking mastin was scum for defending Astinus's actions, when they both turned out to be town. This isn't a 'with us or against us' when it comes to Oilura. Never tunnel someone to such an extent that anyone who isn't doing it as well is also scum. You'll get a few too many scumreads that way.

Edit: Gimme a sec, guille.
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Post Post #339 (isolation #68) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 7:36 am

Post by Mathdino »

lol guille and Riabi, you're confbiasing each other. This is TvT, guys.
In post 296, guille2015 wrote:Post pinged me the whole wrong way.

His focus was entirely on Oilura's Hammer mimicking some of the complaints that have already been set forth. The problem is that Oilura's hammer wasn't what was scummy, but rather Oiluras attempt to defend it. The hammer was simply bad play, which could have come from town or scum either way. Then was his reads. In a game with 4 scums he places two as scummy, 4 as town and the rest as null. I was surprised with TGS being town, and way more surprised with Clusk as town since Clusk has done nothing noteworthy on day 1.
You're running into the same issue DS is. Riabi's read on Oilura is based on a fairly outdated scumtell that doesn't apply in any way to a lot of new users, a lot of emotional users, and a lot of drunk users. But it's still a townish way to interpret it. See, guille, you are actually criticising Riabi for picking the
wrong thing
to criticise about Oilura. How is ignoring the apparent overdefenciveness further a scum motivation?

Also, does it seem sensible to you, as a scum player, to put your partner at the top of your small townlist rather than just switch her with someone from a sea of nulls? Scumpartners just aren't that obvious, I'm sorry.
And no, this isn't "too scummy to be scum", it's going off the fact that most of the time, scum don't buddy each other like that. They're more inconsistent and more likely to nullread and distance. Kind of like what DS and TGS did, actually (switching between seemingly accidental buddying and distancing).

In post 328, Riabi wrote:
In post 308, Mathdino wrote:Also, thoughts on guille's behaviour between your last 2 posts?

I think he still leans scum. If you look at what he's really posting, he's made several posts, but only two of them are, IMO really substantive. In he makes a good point about Nova, and in where he makes a case (albeit weak, IMO) against me. Other than that, he seems to be posting fluff. I suspect it might be an effort to look townish.

Uh, yeah, so, first of all Nova did the same thing, and second of all making substantive posts should not be
furthering
your scumread, and third of all, he hasn't been fluffposting at all. You seem to be confbiasing most of what he does as scummy.

In post 335, guille2015 wrote:After I pointed out that he had 2 scum in a 4 scum game, his following list contains 4 scum. I would normally see scum more complaint to questions from town.

Clusk again. He mentions that Clusk is probably scum for not contributing anything. This is a fallacy just as saying that he was town, which he did agree on. He placed Clusk below NJAC when NJAC had the same or even less contribution than Clusk. If he were judging base on contribution, I wouldn't be so low there.

These are not damning, because 1 is very weak and 2 and 3 could easily come from a town player. That doesn't mean that I can lift my suspicions. I need better interactions from Riabi during the following days to get a better feel from him.
I can't really control what you see in his meta, but okay.

I would normally see new town as extremely compliant with things pointed out to them. Changing your reads to fit evidence that's been put in your face is pretty null.

Fallacious reasoning is not scummy. Also, NJAC IIRC provided reasons for his lack of activity, while Clusk just lurked. This isn't an inconsistency.

Here's why I think Riabi's town: First of all, his read on Nova was fairly well formulated and it very much indicates someone that's trying to figure out the game and figure out who these people are. His read on you was bad, but it was nuanced, and that's what's important. And honestly, it looks more like slight towntunneling than it does scum. His reads on TGS, while I think they're incorrect, are the opposite of trying to please town, which is what you seem to be scumreading Riabi for. He's going against the grain here when he could easily concede that TGS is acting scummy, but his main targets are acting scummier. And his thoughts in 249 on DS was also seeing both sides of the situation; he scumreads DS, provides examples, while conceding that there were parts that weren't completely bad.

Edit: TGS y u ninja me
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Post Post #341 (isolation #69) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 7:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 337, Teen Girl Squad wrote:dragonspawn's case on Mathdino is... odd. I gotta agree that it seems to be based pretty heavily on confirmation bias, and Math's voting patterns don't strike me as scummy. The fact that dragon's going after someone that, as far as I can tell, is being pretty widely town-read is what's so odd to me. I can't see why scum would bother, so I'm to wonder more and more if maybe dragon's just wrong-town? Then again, he's also voting for Oilura who currently is the biggest wagon, and I still stand by my previous thoughts on him, too.

I still am not into Nova's first response to me, or his Oilura vote. He's still mostly null to me, but I think depending on the lynch and flip today we should take a closer look at him later.

Notice what he calls out in my behaviour as scummy: backpedaling and changing my mind. These behaviours appear to be scumtells for him in general.

Now notice also: He called my playstyle scummy D1, and opened D2 with NKA that subtly indicates that I killed Fink, and follows up with a page long argument with me. Dontcha think that backing down now is something he'd see as scummy, and thus would want to avoid?

He refused to explain his read on me until he was pressured to do so, and even then, he's not really pushing my lynch; he's pushing the much easier Oilura wagon. And every time I show him my thought process and how it explains my behaviour, he comes up with a new way to twist what I do as scummy. But he's still not pushing my lynch or asking people questions about me. He's just being consistent with his earlier mudslinging.
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Post Post #344 (isolation #70) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:13 am

Post by Mathdino »

TvT is town vs town, yes. And you two are pretty much at the top of my townreads at the moment, which is why your argument is kind of frustrating me, haha.

On a sidenote, I find it funny how DS can't seem to come up with scumreads apart from me and Oilura. I think it's possible he has or does legitimately believe I'm scum with him, but if that's changed, like I said, he can't exactly back down at this point, thus the terrible cases.
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Post Post #346 (isolation #71) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:35 am

Post by Mathdino »

I guess it's sorta useful that some people are still scumreading Oilura for his lack of reads if it motivates him to get into the game. Those of you who think he's town, would recommend strongarming.

And yeah, just waiting on NJAC to catch up and Clusk to get replaced. DS or Oilura looks like today's lynch, but we do need 3rd opinions.
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Post Post #347 (isolation #72) » Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:35 am

Post by Mathdino »

EBWOP: Those of you who think he's scum
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Post Post #354 (isolation #73) » Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:49 am

Post by Mathdino »

Oh for the love of...

Mod, I've seen the above.

Sigh.
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Post Post #358 (isolation #74) » Fri Nov 07, 2014 4:30 am

Post by Mathdino »

UNVOTE: dragonspawn
VOTE: Oilura
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Post Post #360 (isolation #75) » Fri Nov 07, 2014 4:37 am

Post by Mathdino »

The reason the mod would end the game is there's a very good chance he'll just modkill the 2 of them, which then makes this a mountainous micro which would kinda suck. Might choose to just restart the game entirely.

Alternatively, if Oilura and 2birds are scum, it wouldn't be in scum's best interest to NK 2birds, so we'll then have to lynch 2birds tomorrow making this game vastly scumsided.
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Post Post #363 (isolation #76) » Fri Nov 07, 2014 4:45 am

Post by Mathdino »

Hopefully Void will modkill the slot. If so, and Oilura flips scum, we lynch 2birds. If not, we just lynch.

Not much more discussion is necessary. Y'all know who I want to lynch. If Oilura and 2birds are scum, based on Oil's comments, he killed mastin. Then I'm guessing DS killed Fink.
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Post Post #366 (isolation #77) » Fri Nov 07, 2014 4:58 am

Post by Mathdino »

I would laugh so hard if I was right about DS/TGS and your team decided to investigate 2birds last night.
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Post Post #369 (isolation #78) » Fri Nov 07, 2014 5:43 am

Post by Mathdino »

LOL

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