Open 576: The Enemy of my Enemy is my...Enemy? (Day 2)

[guille2015]

VOTE: dragonspawn


Because it rhymes with dawn.

[guille2015]

Originally I was of a mind of following this Astinus Wagon. But then:

The fact that she didn't remove her self-vote even at L-1 implies she really does want to die...

And she posted last when she was at L-2 if I recall correctly. Either she was not aware of her predicament or she forgot she had voted. Either of which makes me think that her voting herself is a not ploy. Which means, that it is not evidence enough to suggest that she is Scum. Neither town mind you. Her fumbling later trying to explain something that really didn't need explaining is what was suspicious of her. And her post 31 says that she is not claiming to be VT when that is the only role town can be.

There are things here that makes me doubt that she is scum however. But I don't see town in her either, unlike what Mastin sees. But that's normal in veterans here making things up just to look like they know what they are doing. Like this:

My guess at this point is that guile's town.

Which I have no idea where he got that read.

Oilura is totally reacting to Mastin's Vote. Math has it right.

I am very suspicious of both Oilura and Mastin, and if they are both scum, it's of opposite teams. There is a higher probability that Mastin is town.

Vote Oilura

[guille2015]

Astinus:

So, who do you think is scum by this point?

Dragonspawn:

Why do you consider those four things as scummy?

[guille2015]

Oilura, what's your opinion on the relation between TGS and mastin then?

They are on opposing scumteams. One of them slipped up and the other is trying to pull of a gambit where if they are revealed, everyone will instantly suspect Astinus and lynch him.

I think both of them are goons (or the Werewolf equivalent of a goon) and Astinus is either a Seer or a (Werewolf) Cop.

Why do you think TGS slipped?

[guille2015]

Why would scum not vote for Astinus and town would?

[guille2015]

I'd be more suspicious of Mastin if Astinus flips town rather than scum.

[guille2015]

I find it hard to believe that scum will defend their buddy tooth and nail when they know that they will flip scum. from my experience here anybody defending scum would get very suspicious and most veterans know this. On the other hand if Mastin is scum, the probability of somebody being town is half of what it is if your town. So scum would try to look town defending someone who is town. My point is that I doubt very highly that Mastin is partnered with Astinus.

[guille2015]

I get what you mean. This needs more discussion after the flip indeed because now we are getting into wifom territory. The question is whether Town Mastin would defend someone like this.

[guille2015]

The thing that bugs me about Oilura is not the hammer; it's his defence of the hammer. Town should not seem so desperate to justify casting hammering votes, and that pings.

This is precisely what I thought.

On the other hand I am quite suspicious of everyone that has been Badgering Oil for the quickhammer but just because it was a quick hammer. That wasn't particularly damning. There are other things about Oilura that makes me suspicious of him, like Oil's OMGUS vote, giving a pretty bad explanation about someone being scum (playing badly as scum), what bird said, and thinking that lurkers are scum, --> DISCUSS.

I can't help noticing the feeling that there is a fabricated rivalry between Dragonspawn and TGS. also DISCUSS.

[guille2015]

I can't help noticing the feeling that there is a fabricated rivalry between Dragonspawn and TGS.

I'm not totally sure what this statement is meant to mean, but I'm curious as to where you're going with it.

Their interaction is visible but limited. It might be too early to tell though, but TGS (someone I am suspicious of) is interacting with DS with little to no followup. When somebody (2bird) mentions that DS could be scum, TGS agrees, but with the reason of DS buddying up to her, something I do not see. And It feels like TGS is distancing herself from DS as people become suspicious of him.

This of course is quite preliminary and I wanted to see if others see the same things as I do.

Considering that TGS spent the previous day concentrating on Astinus, keeps adding small questions here and there but I see no engagement from her to commit to other Scum reads, other than saying that DS is scummy and dropping it later.

I'm willing to lynch either of the two, but I'd rather lynch Dragonspawn first.

[guille2015]

I have no hurry.

[guille2015]

Am I buddying teen girl or in a rivalry or setting her up? I find maths dense of oilura. Interesting. Is that why you are gunning for me? You mad that I'm going at your partner?

I think you were creating a rivalry earlier on. I never agreed to the other two positions. I think my position is pretty clear.

I don't know what "I find math's dense of Oilura" means.

Who do you think is scum Dragonspawn?

[guille2015]

Hey, guille, you mentioned early-ish during the Astinus fiasco that you felt she wasn't scum:

There are things here that makes me doubt that she is scum however. But I don't see town in her either, unlike what Mastin sees.

But you never explained why. Care to give some details now?

I always consider voting for yourself in RVS to be a Null statement. The important thing is what you do with what comes after it. I've seen it use as a way to get out of RVS rather quickly and when it is used this way, it usually came from town players. However this was not the case for Astinus as her response was, I was told it was a good thing. It is clear now that she really didn't know why she did it. For the most part when a player does something to call forth the attention of the player-base, it is with the intention of getting reads. At the time I also went and did my research on her games and saw similarly misguided plays. However, the idea that she did not unvote was one of the things that made me question her motives.

[guille2015]

Nova can be Town for now.

[guille2015]

Mod can you prod Clusk

[guille2015]

I never said that he is probably town cause he got annoyed. And I never said that actively trying to scum-hunt is scummy.

[guille2015]

Nova can be Town for now.

Why?

Basically his way of answering to pressure. (Light pressure at that). I would think that scum would want to try and make a wall post looking for any tidbit of information. He simply responded without taking care of whether his answer will satisfy someone or not. Also POE since I am considering DS, TGS, Oilura and Riabi as scum.

[guille2015]

Post 223 pinged me the whole wrong way.

His focus was entirely on Oilura's Hammer mimicking some of the complaints that have already been set forth. The problem is that Oilura's hammer wasn't what was scummy, but rather Oiluras attempt to defend it. The hammer was simply bad play, which could have come from town or scum either way. Then was his reads. In a game with 4 scums he places two as scummy, 4 as town and the rest as null. I was surprised with TGS being town, and way more surprised with Clusk as town since Clusk has done nothing noteworthy on day 1.

However, this is incompatible with my thought of TGS partnering DS, but I have been wrong before and this really isn't rock solid.

Actually,

Vote Riabi

Riabi, Tell me more about your read of Clusk.

[guille2015]

^This is very likely to be town.

Why would you think this? There is only one thing there that I like but the rest is not so certain. Don't answer this though until Riabi answers your question, I am really interested in finding that out.

<EBWOP> So, I'm going to have to meta Riabi now. Fine, I got nothing better to do, other than to work and provide for my familiy.</EBWOP>

[guille2015]

But sure, I'll wait.

[guille2015]

Dragon, why is math scum?

[guille2015]

I think he still leans scum. If you look at what he's really posting, he's made several posts, but only two of them are, IMO really substantive. In 294 he makes a good point about Nova, and in 296 where he makes a case (albeit weak, IMO) against me. Other than that, he seems to be posting fluff. I suspect it might be an effort to look townish.

That's it?? Well, if you'd believe this, I guess you'd have reason to consider me "Leaning scum". So it's a matter of the other players to consider if they agree with you or not. I don't agree but, I'd say that regardless.

Now, here are things that I am considering for Riabi.

I went through his Meta, as Math suggested, and although I skimmed through it, I didn't see much of what Math saw. And his scum game was early and replaced out, so not really indicative.

After I pointed out that he had 2 scum in a 4 scum game, his following list contains 4 scum. I would normally see scum more complaint to questions from town.

Clusk again. He mentions that Clusk is probably scum for not contributing anything. This is a fallacy just as saying that he was town, which he did agree on. He placed Clusk below NJAC when NJAC had the same or even less contribution than Clusk. If he were judging base on contribution, I wouldn't be so low there.

These are not damning, because 1 is very weak and 2 and 3 could easily come from a town player. That doesn't mean that I can lift my suspicions. I need better interactions from Riabi during the following days to get a better feel from him.

2Bird: What are your thoughts on Riabi now?

[guille2015]

I thought this TvT was a crying chicken, but town versus Town makes better sense.

Anyways I concede with the possibility that Riabi can be town.

Unvote

Anyways, what is the order of business. I have no read on NJAC or CLUSK. And think that all that this day is missing is for them to get some input here.

[guille2015]

Are we going to lynch right away, wait for void to make a decision or wait for some discussion?

[guille2015]

That is actually quite hilarious.