NY 177: Simple Complexity (GAME OVER: Scum Wins!)

[Pine]

Oh, Aero was scum. Hmm. Yes, not implausible to have a two-scum neighborhood, but unlikely.

[Skybird]

He's going with Marquis' theory of 1 scum in a neighborhood.

[Skybird]

Oh, you remembered. I haven't had my coffee yet this morning.

I'm seriously at a loss for which way to go.

[Skybird]

OK, my vote on marquis isn't doing anything.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Psyche

[Wake1]

Vote Count 6.4

House (0):

Marquis (0):

Pine (0):

Psyche (4):

Pine, House, Shaddowez, Skybird

reinoe (0):

Shaddowez (2):

Marquis, Psyche

Skybird (0):

Not Voting (1):

reinoe

~ With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch!
~ Deadline expires 11/09/14, @2PM Central.

OP | Game Rules | Day Start
1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.19
Aegor's Lynch & Flip
Elyse and T S O's Murders & Flips
2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4
Aeronaut's Lynch & Flip
Texcat and Josh_B's Murders & Flips
3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9
tn5421's Lynch & Flip
Titus's Murder & Flip
4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3
OkaPoka's Lynch & Flip
Majiffy and Mirhawk's Murders & Flips
5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.5
PeregrineV's Lynch & Flip
Gameplay506 and notsciences' Murders & Flips
6.1 | 6.2 | 6.3

[Wake1]

And with that Psyche,

Mafia Goon

, was lynched.

It is now Night 6.

Deadline expires 11/10/14, @10AM Central.

[Wake1]

Murder, murder, bloody overkill in the streets!

Reinoe,

Town Shield

, has been stabbed to death!


It is now Day 7.

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline expires 11/24/14, @6PM Central.

[Skybird]

Since there wasn't a mafia kill it seems that all we have left to do is hunt the SK.

Wake, I'll be V/LA Thursday through Saturday.

[Pine]

Hmm. I hesitate to conclude that mafia is eliminated, four plus SK were the numbers that made sense to me, especially with all the Town power we've seen

No, I think it's far more likely scum shot a BP SK, or that whatever a Town Shield is protected someone

[Pine]

I have a very long post prepared that I composed during the night phase, but it's on my tablet and I'm phone posting

[Marquis]

i think there is mafia left. that's the only way this setup makes sense

also, it's not me

also, yes, i realize i fucked up big time and should have realized psyche was scum after majiffy immediately knew it was fake. can we please not rub it in my face postgame (looking at u dead qt)

pine is town.
house is town.

that is what i (am pretty sure i) know.

VOTE: shadow

my incorrect read on psyche in no way affects my more-likely correct read on shadow.

[Marquis]

also if someone wants to mislynch me better do it quickly while my morale is still at an all-time low

[House]

I actually buy that post, Marquis.

I find that noteworthy because I had every intent to come in and votepark you today.

The only thing I'm not totally sold on is shadow scum. He's fine a lit of scum hunting... unless you are saying he's sk, maybe?

[House]

Fine a lit = done a lot

Damn...

[House]

I'm sold on Marquis being town now because reunite was pushing hard on leaving the fake masons for scum to sort.

Now he's dead, leaving Marquis in a more vulnerable mislynch position.

If mafia is still alive, the NK is a weird strat, but could possibly be a gambit to lie low and get town to focus on finding the sk as the last scum.

[House]

Lol... reinoe.

[Skybird]

OK, I was hoping that we didn't have scum left.

Pine can you summarize your post?

[Pine]

Here's the rambling analysis I did overNight:

177 analysis based on flipped scum votes

--Psyche--
-Day 1-
Reinoe alive (RVS/policy)
Majiffy scum (bus)
Reinoe alive (srs)
Psyche selfvote
Reinoe alive (at this point only votes on scum and Reinoe, Reinoe pretty much confTown now)
Majiffy scum (Pushing Reinoe lynch while voting here. That's the sort of thing I do sometimes; push a scumbuddy and a townie, then abandon the bus when the Townie wagon gathers steam)
(First request for replacement)
Aeronaut scum
Notscience town (proposed as compromise lynch)
Texcat town
Oka town
Oka town
Texcat town
Aegor town
Texcat town
-Day 2-
Aeronaut scum (Sole vote of D2, hammer)
-Day 3-
(Second discussion of replacing out)
Peregrine V town (sole vote of D3)
-Day 4-
Majiffy scum
(Third replacement threat at least)
(Mason fakeclaim revealed, Psyche obvscum)
-Day 5-
(Further replacement discussion)
Shaddowez alive (Final post, shadow might be clear for this? Is Psyche SK hunting here? Bad time for a bus)

Thoughts: Apparently adherent of the school of thought where you make one big bus push, and don't pursue it too aggressively. Also active lurking a lot, hiding behind fake replacement requests. Reinoe probably not Godfather b/c of voting pattern on D1

---------
--Aeronaut--
-Day 1-
Aegor town (RVS)
Elyse town
Okapoka town
Texcat town
***Full reads list post 959*** (Townreads are deadTown and tree/Marquis, scumleans are aliveReinoe, scumMajiffy, and deadTown, lynch pool are all deadTown)
Tree/Marquis alive (wasn't he just a town read?)
***Strong scumslip push on notscienceTown while voting tree/Marquis. Doubting Aeroscum would have declined a perfect opportunity to move vote off of scumbuddy. Tree/Marquis Town? Says later he wants chain lynch tree-notscience, reinforces this point. Could easily chain lynch in reverse order***
Notscience town
Okapoka town
(Gunsmith claim)
(Okapokatown claim, does not unvote)
-Day 2-
(Claims no gun for Titus, gets hyperlynched)

Thoughts: Appears not to be a fan of bussing. Never voted a known scumbuddy, only living vote is tree/Marquis. This may be evidence of MarquisTown. Stated scumlean against Reinoe, but Reinoe probTown b/c Titus and Psyche

---------

--Majiffy--
-Day 1-
Tree/Marquis alive (out of RVS, no reason given. Follows up with push on Tree)
***Full reads list post 547*** (Alina/House, but posits scum if multiball-->Suspects as SK? Remaining Townreads are deadTown. Scum reads are tree/Marquis, scumAero, scumPsyche, and TownTn. Unless bussing is Majiffy's absolute bread and butter, is he going to bus all three of his buddies? Nah)
(Pushes tree/Marquis for a quite prolonged time, occasionally mentions Psyche/Aeronaut as chain lynch possibilities)
Aero scum (here's the bus)
***Posts 1453 & 1454: "Willing to wagon anyone out of {Tree, Psyche, Aero}" "Reinoe, alina[/House], T S O, notscience, Shaddowez, Elyse" = conf Town.*** (Interesting, especially as a bunch made it this far. Not sure how to interpret this. Further evidence of Tree/Marquis Town. Not seeing Majiffy listing all of his buddies, and only buddies, as lynchbait)
Tree/Marquis alive
Titus town
Tree/Marquis alive
-Day 2-
Marquis alive (Only vote on a short day, didn't participate in Hyperlynch of buddy despite frequent D1 allegations against Aero. Tells us that Majiffy busses, but doesn't like to follow through unless he has to)
-Day 3-
Psyche scum (Flips from full game case on Tree/Marquis to bus)
-Day 4-
Mirhawk (While pushing fakeMasons to be sorted)
OkaPoka (L-1)
--Stabbed Night 4--

Thoughts: I think Scumjiffy's strategy here consisted of light bussing combined with tunneling on Tree/Marquis. The vast majority of his votes and substantive posts revolve around Tree/Marquis, Aero, and Psyche, though he only ever goes after Town and Tree/Marquis in a concerted manner. I'm not seeing the logic in solely focusing on scumbuddies, so this is additional evidence of TownMarquis

Notes
marquis/titus-cop/pv/texcat
tn5421/aero/gameplay/skybird
Mirhawk-tracker/Aegor-bodyguard/Oka-doc/Shadowez

Summary

: Pretty much everything above is groupscum hunting. If I said probTown or similar, what I'm really saying is "not groupscum." Reinoe gets a pass here because of Titus and Psyche's behavior, Skybird I'm inclined to give a pass because I'm doubting multimafia in one neighborhood, Marquis cleared for several good reasons.

Remaining mafia options:
Pine no
Reinoe no
House maybe?
Shaddowez maybe? Psyche's last post
Skybird scummy, but unlikely to have two mafia in one neighborhood
Marquis no

=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=

Okay, now that we've thoroughly analyzed the Mafia options, let's look at SK options.

Quite frankly, there's incredibly little to go on. The best we have is "who was scum going after?" Scum has really gone after Tree/Marquis hard, but in question whether Tree would gambit so recklessly as SK, or why Marquis would take the huge risk of a fakeMason claim. There's Shaddowez, who Psyche went after late game, but that could be random. Then there's Skybird, who has been scummy without associatives. Reinoe also comes into consideration, as all of the evidence clearing him doesn't apply to Serial Killer (caveat: not all SKs are investigation proof, but with a Tracker as well as Cop, I'm inclined to think SK is BP + either II or ninja). House is probably mafiascum, but oh shit that's goddamn everyone

We should be SK hunting right now, treating the remaining mafiascum as a weak SK, and the SK as a strong one-person scumteam

[Pine]

Very stream of consciousness, I know. Kind of dense, but read the summaries if nothing else

I also did an ISO on Alina and House. I'm not seeing mafiascum there, some of the cases they made against known scum were too genuine

Remaining mafiascum is

most likely

Shadow

SK, if we miss them today, should shoot Shadow

We should not be voting Shadow, we should be ISOing all living players for evidence of SK, which I haven't had time to do

[House]

Summary

: Pretty much everything above is groupscum hunting. If I said probTown or similar, what I'm really saying is "not groupscum." Reinoe gets a pass here because of Titus and Psyche's behavior, Skybird I'm inclined to give a pass because I'm doubting multimafia in one neighborhood, Marquis cleared for several good reasons.

Remaining mafia options:
Pine no
Reinoe no
House maybe?
Shaddowez maybe? Psyche's last post
Skybird scummy, but unlikely to have two mafia in one neighborhood
Marquis no

I don't particularly read sky as scum, I can't see Wake putting someone he feels necessary to protect so bad as to overstep his authority as mod to ask town to go easy on her into a scum slot. I'd have trouble justifying playing in any more of his games if he were that manipulative.

That said, your logic of but having multifaction scum in the same hood is bogus. Wake has a history of doing that in multiball.

[House]

but = not

[Pine]

SK is also likely a Neighbor, come to think on it

Just did a quick ISO of Shaddowez, gut reaction is to question the PoE suspicion of him as last mafiascum. Psyche lynch probably would not have gone through without him, and when given a choice between Marquis (who I think the scumteam suspects is the SK) and Psyche, he went for Psyche

Could be Skybird? As a one-member faction getting beat up a bit, Wake might've stepped in

[House]

Remaining mafiascum is

most likely

Shadow

SK, if we miss them today, should shoot Shadow

We should not be voting Shadow, we should be ISOing all living players for evidence of SK, which I haven't had time to do

Tell me how it makes sense not voting for scum.

I want some of what you are smoking.

[Marquis]

I don't particularly read sky as scum, I can't see Wake putting someone he feels necessary to protect so bad as to overstep his authority as mod to ask town to go easy on her into a scum slot.

THIS WAS MY ORIGINAL THOUGHT

[Marquis]

sorry.