Open 577: Hope Plus One! (GAME OVER - SCUM WIN)

[copper223]

/confirm let's have a good game fellows!

[copper223]

copper223 dies D1 for having a gun unless town wants to buy his gunsmith fake claim that he'll out at L-1.

-House

Shame on you if you don't believe my claim, I'm clearly GS and gunned myself!

[copper223]

Yo, here's what I got from the pre-game and the start phase:

- BMWS: not a fan, I don't see the town-tell from missing that c+a is a hydra, the fact he is not paying attention to me is slightly more mafia than town indicative if anything, because of the two mafia is the more likely to skim posts, being self conscious about where you are voting is also slightly more scum than mafia indicative.

VOTE: BMWS

- Mathdino: I don't know what to think of such a long pre-game so this could influence my read by over compensating, usually I'm wary of people going into heavy theory because it could be a way to hide lack of scum hunting behind IIoA, in this case though I found it more of a reply to constantine (I agree btw that artificial townblocs are a nono) first and c+a second, also the fact most of it happened pre game where you can't really scum hunt makes me think the tell I usally have in these cases doesn't apply. The fact that as soon as the game started he switched to scum hunting (questioning BMWS for what I also thought was potentially scummy) makes me lean town on him.

- Constantin: didn't really get much of an alignment from his posts, I'm fine if you want to joke around during the pre-game and talk with friends, but after the game started I've seen no attempt to try to read people, other than that dumb vote on mathdino because he pissed him off, I was thinking about whether it is more of a mafia or of a town thing to do but I can find plausible reasons for both alignments behaving in that fashion, hence the null tell. If he is going to continue in this vein this read will quickly drop to scummy.

- C+A: this is the first hydra I play with so I suspect it will take me a while to read this slot properly. I found them joking around pre-game as slightly more town tham mafia indicative and from past experience when two player aggro right from the gate on a point where both think they are right and the reasons they are giving are plausible I'd lean town vs town on them but that's pretty much all I've got.

- Texcat: lol fair enough, did something else pop up to you from the opening phase other than my large hat ?

- Pastro: I can see why people don't like you, have you heard of RVS before? Because unless you haven't those posts look a lot like throwing suspicion around for the sake of it. The fact I'm unsure if he knows what RVS is, is the only reason I am voting BMWS over him.

- NRTG: IIoA instead of reads and that disclaimer you just skimmed the posts (if I fucked up that's why), not a fan of your opener but can't really say much else from 1 post.

- Acryon: nice sum up of what he thinks about the theory discussion plus understandable opening case on pastro, would like your read on other players as well but leaning town.

- Gravity: similar read to Acryon, leaning town.

- CT: late confirm is always a small red flag and that catch-up post was pretty meh, waiting for more info.

p-edit: noticed the ban info, this makes it more likely he is aware of what RVS is, hence more likely he is mafia, voting on a player that isn't even there to reply though is not my style, I'll leave it on BMWS for now.

[copper223]

It looked to me like Pastro just did not understand that those votes were part of the random voting stage. (Whether a bully had declared it over or not.) But I agree it looks like he parked his vote in the first convenient spot.

Slight townread on Tex for following the same thought process.

[copper223]

@Dino

copper seems pretty good at face value, 137 is cool. 138, a townread on texcat for agreeing, is kinda weird to me. So I'm gonna go with a null but not due to lack of info.

The town tell on him is not for agreeing, it's for thinking along the same lines so probably from a town prospective.

@Acryon

copper223 - I don't like the vote on BMWS, and jumping on that seems a little opportunistic, so this is my first real scum-vibe. The reads-list all seemed pretty legitimate otherwise.

How is that vote opportunistic when most of the later comments I have seen follow the: it was a tonwslip line? The main reason for voting was the vote/unvote posts he made when seeing 1 gram of pressure, I find opportunistic that you don't mention that in your read of BMWS:

blindmewithscience - Town for now because of the town-slip and subsequent questioning about why it was a townslip.

toghether with stating you basically got a scumvibe from one comment but like the rest of the page from me it makes me wonder if you have a vested interest in BMWS getting town red. Switching to null and depending on how the replacement to Pastro comes into the game could change again to leaning scum.

[copper223]

@BMWS
Compare it to Texcat, he came into the game, voted one random guy, didn't really bother justifying it and parked it there until he has s better scumread, that reads more town to me because you aren't even thinking about being seen as scum, ofc you can always meta it so it's by no means a universal tell. Now you came in and voted, someone told you RVS is over and you quickly unvoted, this to me shows the opposite, you don't want to have to justify that vote or draw attention to yourself, which indicates your primary focus is not scum hunting (town) but rather surviving (mafia). This read is reinforced by your latest post where you explain your play to people questionong you but once again give mo indication about who you think is scum nor do you bother to vote and by now you should have plenty of material for a "first impression" of who you want to investigate as a potential mafia.

[copper223]

Not much to comment on from a gameplay standpoint so I will reply to Rudolph

Profiling is used to catch criminals IRL but must be absolutely incorrect when applied to mafia? I just finished a game where a player replaced into a mafia slot and since town was already at each others throat proceeded to mark time by summing up what each player did instead of analyzing the game. It's even funnier because your argument on Dino is actually based on IIoA, but from the way you write I think you believe what you are saying so I don't find it alignment indicative.

Depending on why C+A asked you about it, I could see that as town motivated if it was a question about Dino's case or null if it was just curiosity.

Didn't get much from Aneninen, will re-read when I have more time but null for now.

Newbie should tell us how the game is going.

[copper223]

@NRTG
what's your read of Acryon?

[copper223]

@NRG
It's interesting for you to quote that which means this talk isn't affecting your read because I'm kind of reading Acryon and Gravity as likely the same alignment, same opener, minor buddying... so I was expecting a leaning scum from you given your read of Gravity, either you haven't factored it in yet or there is something off with your reads, need to hear more reads from you to decide what's more likely.

[copper223]

@Rudolph + anyone with play time with him
Do you describe yourself as a tunneler?

[copper223]

@Rudi

No, I wouldn't describe myself as a tunneler. Why are you asking?

Trying to understand if you are giving true reads or faking it. It looks like you are on Dino with little to go on, from what I can see, which is fine since everyone looks at the game their own way, but making associative reads based on his interactions that also imply he is scum looks artificial to me if you aren't usually a tunneller, from which I might expect this.

@Aneninen
Pressure on newbie is not a bad idea but it may also be a way to mask any real scumhunting on your side, as long as you keep posting reads I'm fine with it.

[copper223]

It's not a PL if she is active onsite and lurking here, that's a possible scumtell for me. Now is she the best lynch town can come up with today? I hope not.

[copper223]

@Acyron - Many people, including me, complained about inactivity.
Lynching based on inactivity is a policy lynch in principal, since activity isn't an actual scum tell.

I know that, but I was wondering who actually thought it was scummy. I guess it is copper.

It's not a PL if she is active onsite and lurking here, that's a possible scumtell for me. Now is she the best lynch town can come up with today? I hope not.

It is definitely not a scumtell, especially not on Day 1.

Couldn't have been me because that was my first statement on the matter. It sure is a

possible

scumtell, lurking is anti-town so she is either bad in this game (reasons for being bad in this game range from being disinterested as Rudi said to being new and shy or afraid etc...) or scum, that makes her more likely scum than a random slot to me.

[copper223]

What a mess, anyway I got some sort of town read from aneninen, at least he seems to be trying which is good enough for now.
Texcat is no longer leaning town and back into the null box.
I don't know what to think about Constantine but his vote on NRG is not half bad, I can see a hard buss coming from him based on the way he is playing or maybe behind all the bluster he is actually scumhunting.
I'm not moving my vote from BMWS until I get something meaningful from that slot.

[copper223]

Texcat is no longer leaning town and back into the null box.

Why?

-House

Declaring she is not going to try until the replacements are in voids my previous reads on, which were based on speculation of her motivation for keeping her RVS vote.

[copper223]

Which of the two am I talking with? You are missing the point, I was thinking she wasn't hurrying along to switch votes from RVS because she didn't feel the need to and read that as more town indicative, she instead stated she was waiting for replacements before getting invested in the game, as you call it, which means my read on her motivation was wrong and any alignment indicator I got from it must also be disregarded, which leaves me with a null read on her.

[copper223]

on GGG

His readlist and the motivations behind his townreads looks town to me as well, but he is scumreading almost everyone that had a negative opinion on his slot and townreading me without saying anything about why he does, I don't like that because it points to him either having an agenda instead of giving reads, or a link I missed between Rudi and Aneninen that does not include myself, because the explaination that he thinks everyone who is going after lurkers is mafia doesn't hold as I also stated that pressuring newbie was a good idea.

[copper223]

@C+A
My bad I missed the follow up in 331, I understand the nature of the debate on lurkers but I don't much care, I'm more interested in what players perceive to be scumtells, whether they really are or not, if someone is consistently applying them I'm more likely to believe it's his true belief, so in GGG's case 331 doesn't change the fact that he is using "going after lurkers" as a possible scumtell for Aneninen and Rudi, but not mentioning it when reading my slot, once again though I like the thought process behind the town read. Hard call, as he said about Dino if he is mafia and keeps on giving these seemingly legitimate townreads it will show, otherwise I'll start to lean more town on him.

[copper223]

@Aneninen

Also, as Texcat said in 336, most of the reads are OMGUS

She is talking about Comstantine/Idiotking there, not Newbie/GGG.

[copper223]

@Dino
I said I liked his reasoning behind his town reads, these being:

- scumhunting for Idiotkings slot, I agree with NRG as possibly scummy and that was Constantine's last vote behind all the trolling
- C+A for town hunting, I agree that's something mafia doesn't like or think of doing.

And he later added:

- myself for not fluffying, which is basically a subset of scumhunting and is true enough.

I believe that if he is mafia those are "true reads" of his, but as mafia he can't keep giving those so if he is, the difference when has has to make stuff up will show, if it doesn't I'm more inclined to believe he is town.

[copper223]

fair enough.

[copper223]

I have a problem in this game because all of my potential mafia at this point are people being replaced (BMWS and NRG). I'm interested to see where the Acryon vs C+A is going, my early impression is I did not understand nor like GGG's buddying comment on C+A, and I don't like Acryon following up on it with what looks like a weak case. I need to hear his reply to C+A though before I take sides, in case he is seeing something I missed.

[copper223]

That line of thinking just leads to WIFOM, does Acryon actually have a case on C+A or are his latest posts some form of bluster after he went overboard trying to look like he is scumhunting, is all I'm interested in.

[copper223]

@C+A

Could you elaborate on this? Why, in light of acryon's case against you, is acryon town?

Pretty much what I wanted to ask.

@IK
You say smart scum would stay on the fence until town decides to myslynch someone on their own, wouldn't your reads fit well with that kind of strategy?

@Tex
What's up?

[copper223]

@Acryon
The point I can sympathize with is the misrepping, I thought about it as well when discussing lurkers with the House head of the hydra:
- Why did he misrep you and call you town after doing so?
- Did you check his playstyle before concluding he had misrepped you?

The point about scum trying to establish a "protocol for scumhunting" for town I find pretty bad, I understand hiding proper scumhunting and actively lurking behind theory discussion, but why would scum piss other players off by telling them how they are supposed to play? I don't see that as manipulative in the slightest, it's quite the opposite and more akin to a bully approach, which isn't going to make you any friends, so I find it an unlikely strategy for scum.

[copper223]

@Acryon
C+A and House in particular has behaved liked this with both players townreading and scumreading him, so I find it likely this is more indicative of a general tendency in his play rather than scum design to throw doubt on the other players, moreover since I believe individual player tendencies are usually more revealing than abstract concepts on how mafia does or does not play, I checked him out and found this kind of dogmatic approach pretty typical for him and not really alignment indicative. See for instance Newbie 1539, which is full of similar examples. Tell me what you think of it.

[copper223]

acryon is not newb nor is he bad, and he can certainly handle pressure. He's also not a tunneler to the point where he fits the evidence to the reads. Can't say more for usual reasons.

I'm reviewing Acryon's meta, if this is true I will also vote.

[copper223]

It is true, copper. I have metad Acryon too. Don't stall, vote.

[copper223]

@Acryon
I've checked your finished games, your play is very different in this one, in Minimenace you actually did not vote day 1 for instance and in the other two you flip-flopped a lot.

I've seen no evidence of you tunneling on other players and I think your case on C+A is pretty bad, so you are possibly scum here for building your case as you go, without caring much about evidence brought against it.

VOTE: Acryon

This is

L-2

, since we have had few vote counts, I thought I should add it.

[copper223]

UNVOTE:
For today I'm assuming this claim is genuine.

@Acryon
The reason why I read it as scummy is because you ignored or dismissed anything that did not suit your belief of C+A being scum, I think that if you are a PR as seems likely, knowing you could not be lynched influenced your play and made you appear overconfident. I will review Rudi and C+A.

[copper223]

@mod. Do we have a deadline in 24hrs or are we pausing until replacements are found?

Pretty much this is what we need to know

[copper223]

@Tex
white knighting: saying a player is town to pocket him and gain town cred as mafia.

@Acryon
I've checked and while I think Rudi has been pretty anti-town with that shit about drawing the line (really, D1? When lynching a possible doc makes it so our cop dies the night after he outs or sooner...) I don't think he is scum, just a very aggressive townie. It is possible though that this is some kind of planned suicide play and WIFOM defence (hey no scum would play like this, right?) to get as many PR's as possible, so it would not break my heart if we settled on his lynch.

I haven't changed my read on C+A, I think House in particular is likely town, you can really see from his latest posts that what he was doing before was putting on his "scumhunting persona" and basing his interactions on his notions of how town should play.

@All
My strongest town read is aneninen, his drunken posts are a bit over the top but otherwise when I read the thread I mentally imagine replying to some post and more than once I find him tackling the same issues down the line, so I think we likely have the same wincon.

I am therefore checking GGG but I don't see much that is alignment indicative either way myself, the extension request is town favoured but easily faked, I don't mind the NRG vote cause I also have that slot pegged as scummy, and it's not as if he voted and then went afk, I'd maybe lean slightly town on him but I also did not like anything from the very little newbie posted. I'm fine with the wagon for now cause it should help to develop my read on him.

I'd appreciate some updated reads from those who haven't given them for a while.

[copper223]

Would it make sense to pause this game while we wait for replacements?

[copper223]

Welcome to the game, especially Boo and TTH.

pleasantries aside I'd love some reads when you have finished catching up.

[copper223]

I'm reading TTH pretty town here, so I'm interested to see what C+A and Wake in particular has to say about her points.

@TTH
What did you think about my tonwread of C+A and House in particular in 615?

[copper223]

@TTH
Sure, if you check House's games you will likely notice a very dogmatic approach to mafia, he seems to have a list of do's and don'ts on subjects like lurkers, bans, townblocs, RVS... and if you "don't" he will call you out for it, regardless of what exactly you are saying, like Acryon with: bans are not alignment indicative

but

... and then he gives a read on Pastro, House just ignores the but and slams Acryon for using bans to get reads, he does this on multiple occasions with players he townreads or scumreads. That was the focus of Acryon's scumread based on misrepping, to me that just shows he is scumhunting in his own way, what I called his "persona", so it's more likely town indicative. You can see a complete change in the way he writes when he explains he is not an experienced player, i.e. when he is not in House scumhunting mode.

Your point on read consistency and being aimless is totally different though, and I'd like to see where that line of questioning goes.

[copper223]

I also stand by my position that the correct play if the day wasn't going to be paused lynching the scummiest inactive was the right play.

This sounds a lot like choosing the path of least resistance to me, which is what many as scum see as the best way to lock in mislynches. Didn't you have any scumreads on the players active at the time?

[copper223]

@Boo
aw shucks, I think you are a pretty snappy player yourself!

My early town read on texcat was based on her seeming carefree in the way she voted and kept the vote there long after RVS ended, after she posted that she was going to wait until the replacements before getting involved again I switched her to leaning null because disinterest=/carefree, I do like that she posted soon after the action started again and am interested on her thoughts about C+A's probes, leaning maybe a smidge town but that's all, did you see something else in my read Boo because I did not mention the points you disagree on I think.

Other than that Boo seems town to me from her opener (same as TTH), but I think she may be better than Copper about looking town no matter her alignment so there's that. Have to check back on who jumped to BMWS's defence before, now that the slot looks town, because there may be scum trying to look smart there.

@Milk
I'd like to hear from you because I was not a fan of NRG.

[copper223]

Man forget about the game and rest.

[copper223]

@TTH

So, what it feels like you're talking about is a personality thing. I think House is very dogmatic and rigid, but I think that would be the same whether he drew a red card or a black one. At least in F2F mafia, I find that people's personalities don't really change between alignment, but the way their reads fall out does (not sure if I'm wording it well or not). My hang-up with him is that there's this recent voting pattern (GGG and then Rudolph) that I don't really know how to sympathize with. Why was GGG never mentioned again while Rudolph is the vote for a pretty strange reason?

Fair enough, the basis for Acryon's case was in my opinion a personality trait, I can see it as not being alignment indicative as welll, although I will generally give people the benefit of the doubt if it looks like scumhunting in their own way.

I'll let C+A answer about his read progression, it doesn't seem too outlandish from my pov.

[copper223]

@Or
After wasting town resources left right and centre instead of doing your own homework you proceeded to not read what you were given, proposed a strategy which had already been discarded and is mafia sided, questioned other players intelligence for pointing out mechanics that maybe only you would find difficult to figure out, the fact you assume scum is moronic speaks volumes about your own intellect, and now are resorting to personal insults.

Being an a-hole is maybe not alignment indicative for you (someone that played with him?) but just based on this I'd be happy to lynch you out of this game so that the grown ups can get back to business.

[copper223]

Please remove.

[copper223]

@TTH

AHA, I figured it out.

I was just looking over copper's ISO with the strangest feeling that

something really important was missing.

And I know what it is now.

copper, do you have any scumreads right now?

Milk / Orcinus / someone I have as null like GGG/Tex

The inactivity of some slots was a problem for me because they were my most likely candidates (BMWS and NRG), after Boo's posts I think the vote switch from BMWS was a red herring.

[copper223]

Milk / Orcinus / someone I have as null like GGG/Tex

when you are asked for your scumreads

and you have to put down someone you actually have as null

it's ok this game is hard i feel ya buddy

Lol I'm sure you always have 3 scumreads D1.

@All
Can we lynch this guy? I was about to post the same as C+A about wanting out if he continued but I like a lot of players here so I'd rather get rid of the problem, or maybe he is playing like this to be disruptive as mafia, one can only hope and that would at least make sense somewhat.

VOTE: Orcinus

[copper223]

@Acryon
Stop calling it a policy lynch when it is not.

If he was abrasive alone that would not warrant a vote, but do you want to even compare his entry posts to Boo and TTH? Who looks more town to you? He wasted 3 pages and 1 day creating havoc close to the deadline, this is a fact, did he do it soley cause he has an axe to grind with House and is naturally abrasive, or is it scum play? I do not know and the way you just absolve him is bad WIFOM from you, I see no better lynch at the time based on empirical facts and not on playstile.

Instead of giving reads his starting posts screm: who do we (mis)lynch, he actually asked us who he should sheep on, by the questions he asked later and the follow the cop plan he proposed it is evident he did not even read the thread, now tell me which alignment does this look more like to you?

His tone changed the tone of my reply, not the logic behind the read.

[copper223]

Lol, if he claimed scum will you say: because town is never dumb, and move on?

[copper223]

@Orcinus
Shocking.

@Acryon
Rudi should be unlynchable for you given your treatment of Orcinus, why is it not the case?

[copper223]

@Acryon
Do you think that playing overall to your win-con is alignment indicative?

Regarding Rudi: You are taking the stance here that Orcinus is likely not mafia because he is to brazen about it, Rudi also was brazen asking us to lynch you despite your claim, why is one a probable town and the other a probable mafia, aside from OMGUS?

@Orcinus
Shocking you said you were scum, yo.

[copper223]

@Acryon
Ok I will take the time to re-read your ISO at home before replying, drinking a coffee at starbucks presently, prost

[copper223]

Also, I'm changing my vote.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: copper

Explain.

[copper223]

I already told everyone:

965

[copper223]

@TTH

One is post 965. You're insistent that the orcinus case is based on logic and not anything else, but the logic is stretched to the limit. The evidence leading up to the conclusion that orcinus is scum are: "his starting posts screm: who do we (mis)lynch, he actually asked us who he should sheep on" and "by the questions he asked later and the follow the cop plan he proposed it is evident he did not even read the thread." How is it that either of these lead to the endpoint you're suggesting? We don't know and you don't say. Polling the game and asking who he should sheep isn't a directional action like you're suggesting. He had no way of knowing if someone would show up and demand they sheep him onto a scum partner's wagon. If he wanted to guide a mislynch, a much better strategy would be to dummy up a fake case. Being acquainted with this particular setup is also not alignment indicative, especially given that the moderator did not post the setup in the first post and told the players to look it up on the wiki page (it presents a barrier for anyone who isn't inclined to go look it up themselves).

The root of the issue was that orcinus wasn't a particularly charismatic character, and I think you were well aware of that.

The case I made on Orcinus being possibly scum is the best case I have seen today on anyone, there were at least 3 instances where his play was directly working against his win condition if he is town:

- 1v1 on C+A and not even to scumhunt but just getting personal, completely broke the game until he left, I fail to see the town motivation for this behavior and it is apparent why this could possibly be scum play, he sows confusion reducing the chance of town coming up with a good lynch, he may also get C+A lynched, assuming C+A is town, if C+A gets scumread for his emotial outburst. The fact he picked C+A, who was already being scumread by the semi-confirmed doc. made me question him even more.

- Proposing the follow the cop strategy again, it's all too easy to do that and then if something happens say: oopsie I didn't mean to out the cop/doc.
I dislike talk of setups in general because I assume power roles know how to play their roles and butting in is only a good way to give scum hints on who to look at for the NK.

- Asking for information from people and then not using/reading them.

Why do you think the logic behind the scumread is sketchy? Why is your vote on GGG, "because that's the way to move forwards", better?

Another thing that's a little off-kilter is the acryon vote in post 505. At first blush there appears to be an attempt to investigate past games, but there's no link to the actual game in question nor is there any comment from you that only one other game is an absurdly small sample size to extrapolate from.

I read all 3 (or was it 4?) games that Acryon provided on his wiki, since he told us himself where to find them I thought linking them again would be redundant, but I provided the name of the game I was referring to precisely for those who wanted to double check. The game I mention is one where his play is so glaringly different from how he behaved today that I thought it was representative of why meta was making me lean scum on him after how hard he tunnelled on C+A, the fact Acryon himself said meta is useless and not "Copper is misrepping me here to join the wagon" to argue with me about the vote should tell you I took the time to analyse his games and made some good points, valid or not that they may be.

There's also a fair amount of dissonance in how you've been reading the Bookitty/blindmewithscience slot. blindmewithscience started out as a scumread, but the read stagnated due to his absence. When the slot was finally filled by Bookitty, the read changed in post 720. For one thing, it feels like the read changed too quickly with little reasoning. Giving Bookitty's activity up to that point a once-over, I don't see anything that I would expect would really resonate with someone scumreading the slot. Then there's the next bit: "but I think she may be better than Copper about looking town no matter her alignment so there's that. Have to check back on who jumped to BMWS's defence before, now that the slot looks town, because there may be scum trying to look smart there." This already clashes with the townread just given, but if it's a slot you're skeptical of why does it follow that you would turn your attention to people defending the slot? It doesn't make sense. Given the fact that the follow up never actually occurred, it adds to the white noise feel of your recent activity.

I have been playing with Bookitty and I am still uncertain of how good of a read I have on her, so that's why I qualified my statement, from the posts she made I can only assume she is town, I disagree with you that nothing in her posts could change an earlier scumread on that slot, because I found the reads she gave and the probes she made on players before coming out with those reads to be pretty natural and indicative of someone trying to figure out the alignment of those she interacted with. It is however possible she is one of those players that you can't really peg as scum untill the objective way the game is going makes you question your earlier assumptions. Do you have Boo as null then?

I can see where you are coming from with the white-noise accusation, I am in the process of re-evaluating my reads based on the early reaction on BMWS and on Acryon's ISO, you can judge that when I post it, I'd like a reply from you then on this.

Overall, the priority system apparently at work here seems pretty out of balance. In the scheme of your whole activity, there's a very small amount of words and thoughts devoted to scum reads. It feels like the townreads are fairly well developed but the scumreads are left at frayed loose ends which seems backwards because the scumreads are the endpoint, the goal for reading the game at all.

The priority system in this game for me is a product of my scumreads being absent till the later half of the day, which should be evident from reading my ISO, I therefore concentrated on building a decent town circle waiting for those slots to post, it was also a way to make sure most of my townreads are actual townies. Once the game picked up I started scumhunting again, so I don't like this point you are making because it looks pretty forced.

[copper223]

The early posts that pinged me as scum came from people that later became inactive, there is nothing convenient about it because at the time when I called them scummy they were for all I knew still an active part of the game.

[copper223]

Your townread on me drying up just now is also awfully convenient.

It is not drying up, it is in flux because now that we are interacting directly in a situation where I have more information than in most cases I can get a better read on you. Do you find it scummy that I am evaluating your alignment while answering to your accusations?

Your use of "awfully convenient", is "awfully convenient".

[copper223]

Why is your vote on GGG, "because that's the way to move forwards", better?

Because dissonance and inconsistency between reads is a lot better of a scum indicator than all the things you're listing. It implies invented reads.

All the things you're talking about implies an indelicate personality. Except this:
- Asking for information from people and then not using/reading them.

That should be expounded on.

All the things I'm talking about imply not being town, if you find it indelicate as well that is your assumption. Asking for reads can be a way to:
- look like you are participating while doing nothing.
- justify any kind of push based on sheeping someone else, because you also "agree" with what they posted about someone.

Not reading them is obviously bad, as when replying to Acryon if a player consistently plays against his win-con I have to assume VI or scum, I have missed a scum D1 in another game because I thought he was a VI so I'm just going with scum now because that's a safer mistake to make with a D1 lynch.

[copper223]

Do you find it scummy that I am evaluating your alignment while answering to your accusations?

If it serves an ulterior motive, yes.

Everything can have an ulterior motive, you are choosing to interpret it one way when the natural way to do so is another, whether out of paranoia, confbias or because you are scum I can't tell yet.

[copper223]

Matching personality with posting and looking for consistency is the way you get most of your scumreads TTH, I mostly play a % game based on what people are doing and the likely reasons for why they are behaving in said manner, if what they are doing most of the time benefits scum, most of the time they are also scum. I disagree with you that faking behavioral patterns and character traits is something that cannot be done in F2F.

It is town indicative when someone is questioning your alignment, of course you can WIFOM it and scum may also question your alignment to look like town so if, say like Boo, you think Copper may know how to look town no matter his alignment you can also consider it a null tell, but using it as a scum tell seems pretty far fetched to me.

[copper223]

Yes and I'm saying identifying who someone is by their posts and checking for consistency will net you a good scumread, the more you play and the more you may be try to look passive in one game and aggressive in another, for instance I have a set group of friends I play RLM with and I have to mix it up every game otherwise I would always lose as scum.

I'm seeing the endpoint, I just don't know where the starting point is.

Where specifically is orcinus just posting to look busy?

752 754 756 773 can all be seen this way.

[copper223]

Well I do have a natural style like everyone else but since my friends know how I play I sometimes randomly change it just to keep them guessing, I do always play to my win-cons so I'm not trolling them . It is an example of why I think even in F2F just basing your reads on how consistent a player appears to be to what you think you have established as a baseline for his character is a tell that has it's problems like any other.

[copper223]

@GIF
I'm assuming you are asking someone else, otherwise see: 1084
Why did you read your slot as town before joining the game?

@All
Based on Boo looking town and BMWS looking scummy at the start of the game with, the people who could have reacted unnaturally to this slots's early posts are:
- C+A
- NRG (Milk)
C+A questioned BMWS on how experienced he is about the game after the fact in 136 so it looked like he was at least trying to figure out if his interpretation of BMWS's actions was correct. I still want to hear what he has to say about TTH's case on him.
NRG first tried to jutsify BMWS's play to pastro in 122 but then gave the classic null read on the subject in 189, there is no direct conversation with BMWS in his follow-up so I don't see any attempt to figure out what BMWS's was thinking.
-> Milk probably scum. Are you there Milk?

@Acryon
I've seen why you think the wagon on Orcinus is bad: 944 945 and I explained it was not policy for me.
Is your town read of the slot when Orcinus was playing summed up in 941?

@Tex
I'm not getting scumvibes from you but that's because I'm not getting anything, your defence is really lackluster, if you're town here please make an effort.

[copper223]

@Tex

Whether or not GIF actually hammered me or not, that still has to be the scummiest thing I've seen in a long time. Randomly hammering in the middle of the night? Stopping to count the votes,

after

you hammer? My vote was on Orc, but just to emphasize how scummy I thought that was

Agreed, I just finished the last 2 pages after my re-read and this is what I was going to write.

Even if you don't understand why they are voting it's good to say so, I think you are town after your latest post.

[copper223]

@Boo
I disagree with you on Tex because based on meta I also think she is more of a passive player by nature rather than being wishy washy on purpose, and now that she is coming out she looks more town than mafia to me.

I do however see the point you are making and I think it comes from town Boo, of those on the tex wagon you are the only one that provided a decent case, so that alone helps my read of you as town.

@House
I disagree with your interpretation of Boo's case, I'm fine with you scumhunting and pressuring people but I second Boo's request that you actually read the thread in context when you do so. leaning town.

@TTH
I like your case on Rudi for being so sure of people's alignments that it seems like he knows them, but it's hard to say if this is overconfidence or his natural playstyle rather than scum indicative, do you have meta to support your accusations? I think TTH is town based on the people she is scumhunting and the cases she is making.

@Dino
What is so uber town about GIF you will have to explain better to me, because I don't see it. Otherwise your play seems town to me, especially the hammer reaction.

@GGG
I don't know how you manage to post as much as you do and still be null for me, I'm starting to think this is your strategy for today.

@IK
Did you read anything of my exchange with TTH? Because if you have I feel the misrep in the way you presented my read on Orcinus and you sheeping TTH is mafia indicative, I also dislike you calling anyone on the GIF wagon scummy and him an obv town but then going back to question him when he did the supposed randon dice vote. I forgot about you for a while because I liked your early posting and I think it may have been a mistake.

@GIF
Your posting other than the die play looks more town than mafia I'll admit, especially your disappointment about me and C+A "misrepping" sounded genuine, but I do not like the number of "OMG this guy is town move on" reads you are getting, maybe my read is just off here or maybe other players have a vested interest in keeping you alive.

[copper223]

@IK
My bad on the obv. town which was from Dino, I thought it was you going on memory. You did give Orcinus as a bully, moving on (so I presume town?) and GIF as leaning scum, is the random vote the source of the change of read?

I'll wait for your impression after the re-read thrn before commenting.

[copper223]

@Wake
What's your take on the three wagons, GIF, Rudi and Tex, do you agree with Houses reads?

[copper223]

Fair enough, I'll focus on house to read C+A this game then, get well soon.

[copper223]

Here's where I am at since I've had some time to review this game today, I think I have a good town circle with, in order:

Aneninen, Dino, Boo, TTH, Texcat, C+A.

I'm waiting for information from the following players or from people accusing them:

Milk, IK, GGG, GIF, Rudi

currently I think:

GIF, Milk and Rudi are the most likely scum.

I think Acryon's claim is 70/30 legit.

@Mod If Milk doesn't answer soon I'd like to request a replacement for his slot

[copper223]

@Boo

Do you want me to explain my lean-townread on Gravity/Orci/GiF, copper? I know you're waiting for people to respond but I can't remember if they have or not.

Second the thing on My Milked Eek.

Definitely Boo, that would help me a lot.

@TTH
Thanks, I'll review your case today, looks solid at first glance.

[copper223]

@Rudi
A comprehensive case on Tex would definitely help if you are town, since the source of TTH's scumread is a change in standards from how you were reading players earlier compared to your Tex vote.

I don't know about 1258, everyone's reads get more detailed the longer the game goes on and you are using it to justify a switch from early-mid D1 to mid-late D1.

P-edit: I'll say TTH that it's very hard to get a read on him no matter his alignment and that he was also pretty confident in the other game I played with him about his reads.

[copper223]

@Boo
Ok I can give you completely different interpretations of what Orcinus and GIF have been doing which could easily come from scum, I do not have personal experience playing with them like you have though (correct?), but I don't remember much about Gravity other than he looked town at the start, I'll start by checking him.

@TTH
lol.

[copper223]

On Gravity:
Post 126 Pastro looked suspicious to me as well and whether troll or not is not something that enters the equation, so Gravity's early case is more town than mafia indicative, giving a bad town read on Constatine (IK) is null for me, I don't see it as closing yourself off from a lynch, if Constantine really is bad town a smart scum play may be to let him get lynched on his own by the rest of us, it is also easy to change a read from VI to scum without much suspicion if needed.

Post 157 not a big fan of this one, the unvote to "let the replacement talk" is a show vote and I always dislike those, there is no worry about a lynch so early in the game so giving out a set of reasons for why a player is still scummy and then acting the opposite way is not something I'm going to town read.

Not much else alignment indicative, this is a player I would read as leaning town in isolation from his early postings, but I think Orcinuses and GIF's contributions should be the main focus to get a read on this slot.

On Orcinus:
See: Post 1084
If Orcinus is an attention grabber as Boo says, behaving as expected is a null tell, if he is self aware about his meta he can use this to get away with any kind of scummy behavior, which people will then gloss over, I don't know if it is uncommon on F2F to play like the "scummy jester" that nobody takes seriously because scum would not be so blatant about their ineptitute and scumminess, but in RLM that's a completely valid tactic. The general reaction I got from the rest of town is that this would in fact be an excellent way to play (sans being a dick) because many of you (Acryon, Boo, Dino) gave him a free pass for it.

On GIF:
- He has NRG and Rudi as weak town reads, which I don't like,

can you tell me where they come from?

- The town reads he gave are unsubstantiated, again

it would help if you gave me the reasons behind those early reads.

- There are 1 or 2 posts where he comes off as genuine, namely 1188 1192 but he could be genuinely disappointed as scum as well.
- Even if you believe the most benign version of the "hammer incident" that's a null tell and I don't see it that way.

I see Boo's point about GIF looking for attention, so above are some questions for you GIF, the last one being:

Why was Orc. obv town to you before you replaced?

[copper223]

@Boo
The guy (Orcinus) never blows up as mafia?

[copper223]

@TTH/Boo
The only kind of meta you can do on me withou guesswork is a town pr game where I was bullet proof: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=59318

@Rudi
I'm seeing no case on Tex from you.

[copper223]

TTH I'm a financial consultant and I'll have you know I played soccer while studying, which is the equivalent in europe to playing american football in the US .

I am quite a fan of games though, board, card or video, that's true.

Copper is the handle I created because I got rolled cop like 7 games in a row so it was a running joke for those playing mafia with me for a while, I am also interested to see if my handle affects the way people play with me.

[copper223]

[copper223]

@TTH
There is no meta of me not giving readlists as scum available, but I believe there is meta of me as town saying readlists are pro town.

copper223. I have a townread here. There's a caveat; I think copper might be smart enough to sound town all the time. I see nothing scummy; this makes me nervous. :p I am firm on this townread now. I did a bit of meta checking and given natural differences in different games/playerlists, Copper still seems REALLY town.

I know where this comes from but we can't talk about it. Do a quick meta of Boo and I, TTH.

[copper223]

I think she had reason to be paranoid at the time given the meta she was probably using to get a read on me, that paranoia probably went away between her first and her subsequent reads...

[copper223]

Check our meta is the best reply I can give.

[copper223]

Ok Boo, to me it doesn't look exactly the same but I respect personal meta and I think it's unlikely you are GIF's partner, I think defending your townreads is more of a Boo town thing, you are also not the only townread I have that doesn't like the wagon.

I will give Rudi 10 more hours to tell me why I should vote Tex, otherwise I'll vote him.

@All
you should also state who you are willing to lynch cause NL is a terrible idea.

@Aneninen
How did you come up with that read on me and TTH?

[copper223]

@IK

Having reread your exchange with TTH, my opinion has not changed. None of the reasons you gave for orc's scumminess in 1084 are persuasive.

This is different from saying they are non-existent/based on policy moreover:
1. did not in fact lead only to pressure, but also gave him a bunch of town reads, so how is that against his wincon?
2. This is your interpretation and I disagree, in fact setup speculation at the wrong times is a strong scumslip. Why are you forcing your interpretation of how to scumhunt on me to show I made up my reasons? Isn't it more important to decide if I believe it to be a scumtell?
3. This is the Acryon syndrome of giving random WIFOM justification to ignore behavior. The interesting point here is: why is Orcinus allowed to be scummy arguing with C+A while I'm opportunistic for the way I reacted to his behavior?

This looks for all the world like you were willing to lynch him for being an asshole, while claiming that being one is not alignment indicative. You hedge with the word maybe, but it's clear that you at least at this point were not claiming it was scummy.

That is exactly the same thing I accuse him a few posts later of but less well developped. 1. creating confusion, 2.setup speculation. 3.not reading the thread and using info, note he did that

before

his argument with C+A so your justification is a lie, how in the world do you conclude that I want him lynched for being a dick? You can actually tell I already believe here what I've been saying about you guys being wrong to give him a free pass for being unfriendly as well because I say maybe it is and maybe it is not alignment indicative for him, it's like I add a regardless of his behavior qualifier and you actually pick that as my main reason.

Again, this sounds like you did not believe he was mafia being disruptive; that was just a theory you were advancing to make some sense of his hostility. But the main reason (according to this) that you were voting for him was to get him out of the game, NOT for the three points you advanced later.

My post just shows I'm pissed with the guy because he is ruining my game experience and I'm considering his behavior as scum indicative.

There is a clear read development from post to post on why I think Orc may be scum and only in the last one you presented you can you argue policy is a factor, maybe it did influence my decision making at the time but carrying it over to my later reads (and we are talking about a few hours, most likely the next time I logged in, so your argument that they came too late is pretty thin) makes me think you are jumping on this because TTH opened a path for you.

@Rudi
Please claim.

[copper223]

@GGG
1111

[copper223]

VOTE: Rudi

[copper223]

Are you into the business of fear lynching now TTH?

Anyway yesterday I wasn't totally sure if TTH was town because part of her push on me looked like unwarranted tunnelling, now I know why she behaved like that, it relates to a game we just finished toghether, so she is most likely town here.

After finishing up with the post-game of the other game I mentioned I will check Boo's ISO and come back with my updated reads.

[copper223]

@TTH
Baby I didn't know I was hitting on you, I'll try a different cologne next time.

Sure, because my scum play is full of read switches and easy ways to get myself in trouble right?

The truth is the game where I was actually scum with you was taking all of my brain power and this game was a boring slog before the replacements came in, so I mostly forgot about it. What you picked up as read discrepancies with BMWS/Boo is something I'm much more likely to do as town when trying to give the best reads I can on a slot rather then scum where I would be much more worried and actually check the consistency of my reads.

I am reading people pushing on me based on their arguments, you I just gave a town read on because I think I understand your motivation here as paranoid town, IK sheeping you and pretending my case on Orcinus is completly based on policy I don't feel the same about, there is no mitigation or threat assesment involved.

Check again who was calling it noise, confirmed town Rudi was clearly trying to mislead you.

I also don't get Aneninen's read and asked him about it more or less the same time you did.

Now back to trying to figure out the game...

[copper223]

@TTH
I am still looking for the cop crumb, I don't believe that kill was random or based on her reads. Why isn't Acryon a question mark for you if you think it's her reads?

@Dino
Make a summary of what you want me to reply to, meta links:
Newbie 1543: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=59318
Newbie 1551: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=59738
Mini 1623: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=59745
Micro 415:http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=59740

I do get a lot of reads based on personal interaction, I think I said so before in this thread as well.

[copper223]

Well TTH if you want to be rude I have no further reason to interact with you today, given I'm pretty sure of your alignment.

@All
Because scum would really need to have a valid reason to kill Boo over Acryon if they didn't think she is the cop and he is one of the docs, despite what C+A said the optimal strategy for scum in this setup is to lynch a doc as soon as they find him because that makes decisions for the cop much harder, if he is not macho he outs as soon as he gets a guilty or D3 at the latest, he can rely on the macho docs to carry him for an extra day or two and the number of confirmed he gives town vs the chance of randomly getting sniped if he doesn't claim makes it worth it all the time.

As macho though, he dies the night he claims, this makes his decision much harder, it can lead to early claims or not claiming and hoping for that guilty and getting killed, it's not something I believe scum would lightly give up on.

[copper223]

@Dino
I'm wasting time going through Boo's posts with a microscope instead of sleeping, 3 am here, so if it was a joke I'm not receptive at the moment, it looked like making fun of the effort to me.

No, because I'm saying scum probably thought she was the cop, what is so difficult to understand about what I wrote?

[copper223]

Whatever, my bad for not catching the joke as well, I was much more annoyed by the meaning I gave it.

[copper223]

No worries TTH, I sleep very little during the week anyway but maybe I'm more grouchy than I thought for lack of it before the week-end rest . If I didn't misinterpret I would have found it funny too.

[copper223]

Well if there is a cop crumb I'm not seeing it, I'd ask the rest of town to check as well because this is key.

Unless someone brings something up this means Texcat, Acryon and Milk are my starting scumreads for today, kind of annoyed I defended Tex if she is scum.

[copper223]

@Dino
- Scum want to lynch docs as early as possible in this setup because if cop becomes macho, this limits his options substantially, it makes it hard for him to out at the right time and impossible to play follow the cop for one or more days, as town could otherwise try to do.

The fact Boo, assumed random townie unless there is a cop crumb, was killed over a doc claim likely means one of those things:

- Her reads were more dangerous than a doc
- The doc claim is fake
- The kill was a setup to make us lynch the doc or her scumreads.

I'm starting with what I believe the most likely to be and depending on how the suspects react going down the list if needed.

[copper223]

@Mod: what do I have to do to get My Milked Eek replaced from this game?

[copper223]

Catch-up, was busy with with work yesterday.

The main topics I have seen are:

- Texcat scum or bait?
- GGG vs Dino
- Aneninen's catch-up and doc save request

let me know if I missed something.

First I second TTH's request for an update from IK.

Regarding Texcat:
I get the point about preemptive defence some of you are making but it is objectively true she did have a reason to kill Boo and if you are going to do a NK analysis as Tex you have to consider that, I also dislike GGG's push on her. I am going with her being bait for now.

GGG:
The problem I have with your 1 scum per wagon read, is that to me it kind of makes sense only if we had 3 town wagons yesterday, and how would you know that? Moreover if that's the case why is Texcat a scumread of yours? If we had at least 1 scum between the three the 1-1-1 split makes much less sense to me, I think in that case a 2-1-0 or a 3-0-0 is more logical, it's likely scum want to avoid their partner getting lynched D1 much more than being afraid of long term associative reads.

Dino: I really dislike his Acryon is confirmed mentality, if for sone reason Acryon ends up being scum I'd lynch him. I also dislike him sheeping IK about the Orcinus wagon being policy driven, but at least he did give his reasons for why he thinks Orci is town at the time. I do like his push on GGG.

Aneninen: I also don't understand why you would ask for the doc save and why he would give it, the value of being able to predict who a doc saves is much higher for scum so the less information there are available on who Acryon thinks to save, assuming Acryon is legit, the better. I see your point about the wagon movements but I don't know if it's relevant because both town and scum want a lynch to occur, it could be if GIF flips scum.

[copper223]

@C+A
Also my impression, that's why I said, paraphrasing: "I don't understand why he did it" instead of "I think he is scum for it"

[copper223]

@C+A
How confident are you of your town read on Texcat?

[copper223]

@C+A
Ok, I'll roll with this for now:

VOTE: GGG

[copper223]

@GGG
You're right, I missed that post from TTH because I was focused on Rudi at the time.

Your reply makes little sense to me though, first you change your scumreads, Tex Anen and MME based on the all-town assumption and then you give scumreads that directly violate said assumption by including Tex in them.

Further you can argue you said probably but if you base the whole gameplan on it, you are arguing semantics, why is it probable that the 1-1-1 split happened and and that Texcat is scum?

If your defence is Dino is the scum here I can respect that approach, can you make a post that summarizes where he reacts as scum being caught today?

[copper223]

Given the activity level of some players (Acryon IK MME) it's possible/certain they haven't seen the thread yet, I'd like to give them time to post their reads and/or get substituted before lynching someone, so please give them a few days to do so before stating intent if you want to do so.

[copper223]

@GGG

what a bizarre read.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If it looks like it has a town feel it's because only town can profit from it and I'm also wondering at the lack of resistance, so I'd like to have the full picture before committing.

[copper223]

It's a post that appears like you are trying to appear town. It's purpose is to make you look town.

The purpose of the post is to avoid a quick end to the day allowing people to get away with minimal contribution, if it shows my alignment as well that's good news.

I have a case on you, you can argue I was sheeping TTH but I think that if you read carefully the two accusations you can see they are indipendent of each other, why do you say I'm sheeping C+A? The only thing I got from C+A is Tex is slightly more likely to be town which means you are also slightly more likely to be mafia.

@Dino
If someone quick hammers I'll be happy to lynch tomorrow, if GGG self hammers as mafia I'm also fine with that.

[copper223]

GGG:
The problem I have with your 1 scum per wagon read, is that to me it kind of makes sense only if we had 3 town wagons yesterday, and

how would you know that?

Moreover if that's the case

why is Texcat a scumread of yours?

If we had at least 1 scum between the three the 1-1-1 split makes much less sense to me, I think in that case a 2-1-0 or a 3-0-0 is more logical, it's likely scum want to avoid their partner getting lynched D1 much more than being afraid of long term associative reads.

If you are scum I think that means all three wagons yesterday were town and you noticed your scumreads were a problem, so you changed them around but forgot to apply the information about Tex being town you have and which is assumed in your 1-1-1 split to your new reads.

I see, sorry if the vote is unclear, let's roll with that referred to the Tex read (let's roll with her as town), not on your wagon.

[copper223]

Your logic fails though.

If I am scum I just quick hammer to end the day if I want to end discussion, if I am town and someone quick hammers you lynch them for it. So your post isn't neccessary

On the contrary, I am willing to trade all the information we can get today for 1 confirmed scum, either you or the quick hammerer, I am not willing to have a player prematurely ask you to claim because he finds you scummy, more or less securing your lynch, while there are still people that need to give their imput and may help to determine your alignment, although with all the WIFOM from you, Dino and TTH it's going to be hard to get much now.

Do you see the difference?

[copper223]

Thanks IK that helps a lot.

You have now given me a particular incentive to give you a reads list that conflicts with this argument.

This is true only if you are scum.

FOS Copper for only requiring "a few more days" before lynching GGG and not looking at the wagon more critically.

I was the first to look at it with some worry so what are you talking about? A few more days is the time I expected for the inactive players to post, as I stated multiple times that is what I was waiting for, which is the only relevant measure. This is not a newbie game so keeping him at L-1 is not a problem, it's scum bait either way.

@Dino and TTH
Here you have the soft defender you were looking for.

[copper223]

@IK
So now you are saying TTH is scum?

If you were at L-1 and a PR mayyybe it would be worth it, as is you have 0 incentive as town to give fake reads.

The point of townies giving true reads is that once they flip or get NKed we can check back and see what they genuinely believed, and since I know I'm playing with smart people some of town's reads are bound to be on point, giving this up to avoid wasting time or not getting lynched, if you have to resort to lying not to get lynched as town you have a problem, is a bad idea or more likely a cover-up for a scumslip.

I think you're likely with GGG but it's possible that after Dino and TTH expressed doubts on the lynch you decided to jump off and sofT WK him, so I find you the marginally scummier of the two.

VOTE: IK

[copper223]

It's scummy to try to keep the wagon at L-1, not to get off of it.

And prey tell me who was doing that? I certainly did not

try

to keep the wagon at L-1, did you see me ask Dino to vote again when he put it at L-2?

Rather than "why the hell are we at L-1 already!? as it should have been, he was outright OK with the lynch; he just wanted to pay lip service to giving people time to chime in.

How has telling people to please not ask for a claim until the lurkers posted, let alone lynch, become being ok with the lynch in your mind? I was worried about the speed of the wagon, as you can clearly see, but I will always base my scumreads on the person first and what happens around him second, more so if I don't have a flip to go on.

TTH examining my reads is townie. My problem with the post I quoted is not that I see TTH's argument as scummy; it's just ineffective if you point out what you're looking for. It's like voting someone to pressure them, but then saying your vote is only to add pressure and that you wouldn't be willing to lynch the person. It negates the point of doing it in the first place.My problem with the post I quoted is not that I see TTH's argument as scummy; it's just ineffective if you point out what you're looking for. It's like voting someone to pressure them, but then saying your vote is only to add pressure and that you wouldn't be willing to lynch the person. It negates the point of doing it in the first place.

This just looks like back-pedalling.

The reason why I was fine with GGG being at L-1,

provided nobody prematurely asked for a claim

, is that firstly I still think it likely he is scum and secondly it makes for an excellent bait if he is town, if scum were not on the wagon we might have seen them trying to adapt their reads to look for a reason to claim, if scum were on the wagon and it looked like it was stalling they might have jumped off, it seems like you took the second bait.

[copper223]

But you didn't declare it was l-1. So it seems like you were baiting someone to derp hammer, then lynch them tomorrow as well.

Good point.

[copper223]

Full bussing mode?

[copper223]

Hm probably not, if IK flips scum GGG is likely town.

[copper223]

@IK
So this is your accusation now?

Please...what does

stating intent

mean to you? The only reason why you state intent before hammering is to allow for a claim, I can hear the windows bending from here given how hard you are trying to climb on them.

[copper223]

@IK
I'll try to do a meta after work to see if it's true you aren't used to it.

[copper223]

First game I checked:

Subject: IK stating intent at L-1 in Mini 1543

Consider this intent to hammer.

Ross, do you have any last words?

[copper223]

@GIF
what's your take on today, since you are back from V/LA?

[copper223]

@Acryon

I disagree here. I think the optimal play is leaving me alive. As long as I'm alive, there is going to be a question mark on me. That seems pretty good for scum.

This is plain wrong:
- If you get a save as doc you confirm a player, super valuable for town.
- If scum know you are doc, by killing you they are sure of medic dodging.
- If you get killed as doc the cop becomes macho and will die when he outs.

Compared to leaving a doc alive for WIFOM reasons I would make the kill in every game I played as scum.

Your argument just looks self serving, where is the pressure if that's what mafia is doing by the way? You lurked till now and the only one entertaining the possibility of you being scum, after you were nearly lynched yesterday I might add, is me and you aren't even my first scumread.

[copper223]

@Acryon
What exactly am I hiding?

I said the optimal kill if you are doc is to kill you, so if you are a doc then yes, scum made a mistake. You trying to sell it as scum being smart by leaving you alive is either faulty understanding of the setup if you are town, or what you have to say as scum. Regardless of the alignment it's a self serving statement which again either comes from confbias if you are town (and looking for a reason to justify being alive) or for obvious reasons if you are scum.

I had a legitimate reason for why I wasn't able to post; I wasn't lurking. You can choose to not believe me, and ultimately be wrong, or you can choose to work with me now that I am back and able to post reliably.

I did not question you for lurking or being absent with a justified reason as you are now stating nor called you scum for it, I questioned the lack of heat you were getting if scum kept you alive as WIFOM material, especially when a lot of players here where voting for you yesterday, that doesn't add up for me.

Are you scum? I am not sure yet but I'd say it's more than 50% now, I have a stronger scumread read on IK and I think it is not worth it to risk killing a doc today if I'm wrong, but I want town to consider what I'm saying if you're around tomorrow and I am not.

[copper223]

@Acryon
Such nonsence, my scumhunting today is plain to see and is not based on trying to WIFOM mafia behavior to guess how much experience (and what does that mean, experience is /= login date anyway) they have playing in the case that you are actually the doc, nor should it. I'd have more chances being correct randomly using a d11.

I already answered you as well when I said you are slightly more likely to be mafia here when you asked me the first time by the way.

What you are doing is the equivalent of someone coming to you and saying you are hiding something because you did not post your optimal scumteam in the case that Boo was lynched because mafia found out she was the cop, why didn't you consider that case in your scumhunt?

[copper223]

@Acryon

Question: are inexperienced or experienced scum more likely to make a NK mistake?

Very good scum players are less likely to make that NK, very new scum players are also unlikely, if you want a blind guess it could come from a decently experienced (and here I equate experience with ability) scumteam, something along the lines of more than 3 months but less than 2 year old players who have maybe played just a limited amount of setups.

here wasn't any apparent crumbing, which even you agreed to.

And? I have no crumb to go on to determine if you are doc or not but you are asking me why I'm not using your role in my scumhunt.

[copper223]

I'm not asking you why you're not using my role in your scum-hunt. But you should be taking everything into account, no? You can make decisions based on the likelihood of me being a doc vs being scum.

Not really, doing so just leads to mass WIFOM.

The best way to scumhunt I know of is concentrate on individuals, finding if their play favours town or mafia more, looking for inconsistencies or clear lies, unjustifed changes in or opportunistic reads, wagon hopping, showing sings of having too much information... . Once you have your first scum pegged you can go back and revisit the game looking for associative tell with a clearer understanding of what you are doing.

[copper223]

So are you just ignoring my existence, or treating me as some kind of strict-null? Your examination of every player is, in essence, "are the things this person is doing more likely to come from scum or town?" "If the player does X, then they are scum" just isn't a thing, so you are always working off of what is most likely given the events and information. That's not WIFOM; that's how the game works.

This kind of misrepping is getting anoying. What I'm doing is evaulating every single player and asking myself, is this guy more likely to be scum or mafia based on his play, in your case:

- I did not like your case on C+A pre claim and after going at him for the whole day yesterday today you seem to have forgotten about him, there was no mention of him in your catch up post, I find that more scum than town indicative.
- You claimed doc but survived the night, you are clearly the best kill, I find that more scum than town indicative.
- You are trying to sell us the idea that leaving you alive was good scum play, ""

However, despite thinking you are more likely scum than not, I'm not willing to push you today when I have a clear front runner for that role in IK, I am however going to post my logic so that town can use it if it becomes relevant.

Contrary to some (who do have a point actually) I am willing to use some associative tells without to moderate my reads, like my worry about the speed with which the GGG wagon took off, but to base my reads on associations without flops? That's plain retarded.

Also now that I think about it, wasn't it your scumtell (which I never noticed myself tbf.) that scum tries to control how other people scumhunt? Aren't you trying to push your view of how to play on me now mate?

[copper223]

*without flips*

[copper223]

@Acryon

I am not the only person who believes this. What do you think about the idea from them?

It makes me worry because some of them have to be town, that's also why I thought it was better to give my own interpretation as well.

I can see some scumteams being influenced by C+A's WIFOM statement yesterday, as Dino said, Texcat didn't scumread you yesterday so keeping her read plus arguing it was a null factor rather than good scum play I don't find very scum indicative, Aneninen already demonstrated what I consider suboptimal play by asking you for your save so I can see him going for the WIFOM explanation as town or mafia, and I have had a town read on him for a while now, if you were to flip scum I'd consider him as a possible teammate of yours though.

[copper223]

I'll consider it if/when I know your alignment, for now I invite you to check IK's ISO if you are town.

[copper223]

@All

Vote Count 1.15
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Rudolph the Reindeer (4)

- acryon,

Idiotking, Cain + Able

, TellTaleHeart

texcat (4)

-

bookitty

,

GGG

,

Rudolph the Reindeer

, Mathdino

GuyInFreezer (4)

- copper223,

texcat, My Milked Eek

, Aneninen

VCA suggests, if you believe in the division theory, the butter zone and wagon combining (check out Mastin2's guides if you don't know what I am talking about and are curious) that there may be 2 scum or more between:

{IK, C+A, GGG, Texcat, MME}

@TTH
I'll wait for you to finish your analysis before asking questions

[copper223]

@Dino
Hey, I didn't say I put much stock in it myself, although most my scumteam is right there in it so w/e.

@TTH
Did someone teach you how to do VCA?

@All
Here's the summary: Mastin's Guide to VCA

[copper223]

@Dino
I gave you the assumptions used, if you don't agree with them it's fine by me. The way I got to who I think is scum has nothing to do with this, it was kind of fun seeing they are part of the pool you get.

Honestly though, middle of the wagon is still pretty decent as a scumtell based on my games on MS. Making a case and being the first to vote often exposes you to a lot of pressure so many scummers shy away from it, hammering is also often seen as risky by scum.

[copper223]

@TTH

Lol, it's called the

butter zone

, because it's the soft spot where you can place a vote without doing much work beforehand or getting questioned after.

I think your hive mind is mostly a product of not eating properly, take my case:

- I hammered Rudi mainly because I will never NL D1 on principle, your case on him looked decent and he refused to tell me why he thought Tex was scum, it could have easily been GIF if he hammered at the 3 hour mark as he said he would.

- I scumred GGG after having him as null yesterday because I noticed his implicit assumption that there were 3 town wagons yesterday when he changed his reads but then kept Tex as scum. This looks to me like scum inadvertedly misusing their knowledge to try and fix their reads and botching it. This is a new piece of information on the player I got so clearly it's going to change my read.

If there is an association there, which once again is not the way I recommend to scumhunt, it's likely betweem C+A and Tex.

[copper223]

@GGG

I am off of Matt Dino after his hatred of a Abacuses.

I'm not sure on idiot king. I would still like my question answered of why he didn't keep the gambit going beyond tex and coppers reactions.

I am back on the texcat wagon.

vote texcat

. That's l-2

I doubt this has much to do with abacuses and a lot with survival instincts.

Why is idiot kings gambit anything more than just bad town? Are you putting a lot of stock in the intent to hammer thing?

Please continue telling me why you and my other favourite scummer IK can be mafia toghether after all.

@Mod
Sorry if I'm coming off as a bit of an ass here but you are not doing your job with the prods and the replacements.

@Tex

MMEek has been AWOL for quite a while, but what's happened to GIF?

Town points, we are the only ones that seem to care.

[copper223]

@Acryon
I agree, so why are you saying hammering there makes me more likely to be scum?

@TTH
I can't find scum meta of you unfortunately, pushing hard on me after our latest game where you regretted not saying you thought I might have been mafia before getting lynched I can factor in, but now you are misrepping Texcat as well and that's less understandable.

That's not my theory, and all texcat did was copy/paste two vote counts and put her scumreads in blue.

- MME is not a Tex scumread.

- The two vote counts she took are the same you used and reasonable if you want to try doing a pseudo (because we have no flip on GGG) VCA, how is yours any more valid than hers?

- I did not like that part of the VCA telling a story you mentioned, it sounds like fabricating evidence to fit a prior belief, if that's the case the whole VCA is either town confbias or scumplay.

What is the story you mentioned?

@All
I read TTH as town for the same reason as Rudi, the cases she makes and the angles she comes from seem very indicative of a townie trying her best to figure out the game, sometimes she comes out with goofy stuff but the best way to learn is to try something out and I admire her for being ballsy and going ahead with it, but this is the third instance I see a clearly forced read from her:

- The Copper read switch from BMWS to Boo, the guy barely posted and I had direct meta of Boo so updating my read there is I think normal (also town favoured as Boo turned out to actually be town).

- The hive mind theory, my presence on the first wagon is completely incidental and IK is claiming a reaction test on the GGG one, since she is not voting him I'm assuming she is letting this fly, C+A and Tex both had GGG as scum yesterday and Tex joining the Rudi wagon also looked more like a compromise rather than a premeditated play.

- Her latest post on Tex, see above.

Gun to the head I'd still say she is town confbiasing and playing mafia sided

[copper223]

@Acryon

Despite the general idea that hammering is scummy

This is why it's town indicative for me, even if you believe I would not be too worried about hammering as mafia (which I can stand behind), given the general belief that hammering is scummy, I would have no reason to do so when someone else said they were going to, if I had played with you multiple times and knew you and the rest of town believe that hammering is usually done by town then the null read or a reversed read would make sense.

As town I have a strong motivation to ensure we get a lynch in because getting a flip on a questionable player is

always

better than gifting our lynch to scum, where they can freely select who to kill and it will never be one of them, so that's why I hammered when I had to leave the office and saw we only had 2 hours left.

Regardless I see no problems with the read Tex gave, it's consistent with her initial belief, which is understandable.

[copper223]

@Acryon
No if I am scum I have no reason to hammer when GIF, who is either my teammate and is going to hammer for me since he said so or town and has no reason to lie about hammering so is going to go ahead with it, will do it for me, so I get the same result.

The only case you can try to make is that I believe hammering there as scum would make me look more town, since you just said there is a general belief that hammering is scummy I find it hard to believe you have now decided this is the case based on WIFOM.

Tex stated she believes scum wants to avoid joining town wagons, I can see someone having that belief and based on that she thinks Copper is clear, I don't think that's an amazing read but I've definitely seen wierder ones including your idea that mafia tries to tell town how to scumhunt, but not in one or two instances but by building an overall framework beforehand...

[copper223]

@Acryon
That is such crap again, the fact is:

- there is a clear motivation for town to hammer, because I had no clue if the people who said they were going to hammer would actually go ahead with it and if that didn't happen, D1 would have been a shit-show for me.

- there is none for scum other than questionable WIFOM that depends on me reading you and the rest of town as thinking you will read me more town if I hammer.

I have no problems with you calling it null if you want to but calling other people bad for going with the logical interpretation of the facts, especially given they state a belief which is understandable, is just bad from you. Go and check Texcat's games as town and see if she really believes that scum wants to stay off town wagons instead of calling her bad (and what do you mean by this, is she scum or wrong?) if you think she is making up reads.

I never mentioned the hammer before so I fail to see how it is self serving to give my version, clearly the most relevant one, when you are discussing it, if anthing it's self serving of your Texcat interrogation to try and force me out of it.

[copper223]

Why would you have no clue whether they were going to actually go ahead with it or not? Two people expressed intent to hammer, so I don't see the town motivation there vs a situation where one or zero people expressed the intent. Can you point me to some games where multiple people expressed an intent to hammer and none of them did?

Because GIF, a player I still think has a decent shot at being scum, decided to take it upon himself to state he would hammer at the 3 hour mark (thus for all I know voiding Boo's prior commitment) and when I checked if he had actually done so I found he hadn't. I probably could find games but the above alone should be enough to tell you why I decided to hammer.

No game I have ever played in had a giant wagon led on the person that hammered except situations where it was a clear quick-hammer/troll-hammer with no prior intents expressed. Something tells me your experience hasn't been that much different than mine, so I don't think you would need to know that much about us to discern that information.

This is BS, if I had to form an expectation, as mafia, and you asked me at the end of D1 I would have probably gone with: it's bad to hammer, because of what Dino said to GIF about tunnelling him for his d12 if it weren't provably random (which I still think is a shit read btw), if you are asking me now I'd probably say null, certainly not that it's a good idea as scum in both cases.

It's self-serving because it is directly involving a town-read of you. Do I really need to explain the conflict of interest here?

Yes, you cannot talk about something that I did, giving bizarre interepretations, the first one definetely looked like you were saying it made me more scummy, and expect me not to give my pov., like in what world? I also did not interfere until Tex first clarified her read for you.

[copper223]

Actually, GIF said at 8:11 my time that he would hammer in 3 hours, which would be at 11:11 my time. You hammered at 10:36 my time, 2 hours and 25 minutes after GIF said he would hammer. So that idea and subsequent thought process is just plain not true.

I was at work and read 3 hours from the deadline, not 3 hours from his post, that's my bad, but the reason why I hammered stays the same. There would also be no reason for me to make this up as it is easily verifiable and I also mentioned it before in the thread:

- I hammered Rudi mainly because I will never NL D1 on principle, your case on him looked decent and he refused to tell me why he thought Tex was scum, it could have easily been GIF

if he hammered at the 3 hour mark as he said he would.

Something seems like BS here, but it isn't what I had to say. Also this entire part of the discussion is total hypothetical WIFOM, and this post from you appears to be the WIFOM climax.

You are asking me WIFOM questions and blaming me for WIFOM answers

[copper223]

@Acryon

In that case, we really can't give you town-cred for the hammer, because your proclaimed town-motivation for doing so was actually based on incorrect information.

This is another retarded or scummy statement. What is relevant to determine my alignment is the honesty of my motive, not the information I based it on (especially when the two information sets can be easily compared like in this case).

As an example, if you strongly believed every player starting with the letter A was mafia and you voted for them as town and only as town in every game, I would always call you town for doing so no matter how incorrect your initial information on said players are.

If anything it should make my motive more clear, if I had your information set my motive would have actually been

more

questionable because at that point I wouldn't really have had reason to worry about who was going to hammer.

I'd say this is the end of the discussion for me, unless someone else has questions, I'll come back to you tomorrow if I can/have to.

[copper223]

@Acryon
Tbf. It does mean you questioning Tex also makes more sense though.

[copper223]

@Acryon
Yes in this case the hammer is objectively null and if what Tex said is scummy or not boils down to: does Tex believe that scum want to stay away from wagons as much as possible?

I think it's unlikely scum makes a VCA based on that methodology, states that's what they are using and calls me town for it, unless they believe it to be a valid reason a priori, which I really don't think is the case, it's more likely it really is her personal belief and she may be right about it for all I know.

Still, I apologize for derailing some of it but I thought the discussion was slightly different.

[copper223]

@TTH

Even if he is scum, copper is a really hard player to pick apart because there's a logical consistency there and there's a lot of confidence to back it up. He also has a lot of charisma and it's easy to get swept up into townreading him for it. (MathDino, you're asking what happened in our last game? He was scum and nearly everyone townread him.) That's kind of why I'm making such a big deal over what probably looks innocuous to everyone else. The interpretation of details becomes really important and minor things start to matter a lot. Like the changing read on the Bookitty slot and the exact reasons for the orcinus vote.

The interpretation of the details is very important, were my reads on some players noticeably inconsistent in our other game? If anything I was too rigid and Lia noticed it. Was the Orcinus push a smart move if I'm scum and GIF is town? It's hard to argue with paranoia but you are pointing out things that I can see myself doing as town and not as mafia, especially the read inconsitency on Boo, as scum I would really have no good reason to change my early scum on BMWS just to give Boo, a player who I already know is pretty strong based on our last game, a free town read and look worse myself for it.

I disagree that the Rudi and GGG wagons look the same, at least from my perspective, first of all compare your initial accusation with mine, do you see it as a sheep? I'm confident you can tell they are indipendent of each other (because I know I did not read your accusation yesterday while checking Rudi, I just saw you continue scumhunting and thought to myself, yep TTH doing her town thing as usual, I'll come back tomorrow to it).

The "there's exactly one scum on each wagon premise" is incredibly specific without much logical backing. What would be unreasonable about two scum being on a wagon, especially if one of the current wagons is on scum? The implications aren't applied evenly across the vote count either. Is GiF actually scum, and if so, which wagon is all-town? The logic here is very cumbersome because such a drastic change in reads is accompanied by such bizarre reasons. The conclusions even collapse on themselves. It seems like now you think that texcat and Rudolph are both scum, but somehow you still think that scum would be evenly spread over all three wagons even though 2 out of 3 are on scum? Why would that be?

The problem I have with your 1 scum per wagon read, is that to me it kind of makes sense only if we had 3 town wagons yesterday, and how would you know that? Moreover if that's the case why is Texcat a scumread of yours? If we had at least 1 scum between the three the 1-1-1 split makes much less sense to me, I think in that case a 2-1-0 or a 3-0-0 is more logical, it's likely scum want to avoid their partner getting lynched D1 much more than being afraid of long term associative reads.

The way I'm pushing on GGG is also very different from Thor, first I told you this kind of play was not so strange coming from Thor, and Acryon by the way, Thor does that as scum

and

town, that's not a scumslip for him, in fact he did not argue enough this game (maybe his RRD style is softer) for me to be confortable with him! In our newbie game Copper&Thor he picked every accusation apart starting on the semantic level and he was town, in fact I think we were both having fun pointing out the most obscure things just to see if the other would follow...

P-edit: I'll say TTH that it's very hard to get a read on him no matter his alignment and that he was also pretty confident in the other game I played with him about his reads.

and I ended up voting him because he had more than a 23% chance of being scum, he was not helping if he was town (by providing a case on Tex) and I had nobody else that was lynchable.

This is not the same behavior I'm having on the GGG wagon.

Also please read again the whole hammer discussion with Acryon, I agree it was objectively null for Texcat when she gave that read (unless she took my word for GIF being late to hammer) but it certainly was not for me with the information I though I had, that's another play that objectively only town_Copper has any business doing.

Enough trying to convince you though, I'll try to work around you if you want to stay in the rabbit hole.

[copper223]

@GGG
What TTH is implying there is everyone on your second L-1 was a potential mafia, with the possible exception of Aneninen who as per her last read on him is lynchable due to Boo's NK. You previously told me it was very unlikely all 3 mafia would group up and be on the Rudi lynch and you changed your scumreads accordingly, because they didn't make sense based on that.

So, have you now changed your mind about that belief? If so why do you think scum targeted you in particular at the start of D2 and why did the lynch stall out?

[copper223]

@GGG
I'm eager to hear your conclusion after reading my meta then.

[copper223]

@GGG
How long have you been playing this game (hold on Dino)?

[copper223]

How familiar would you say you are with the jargon?

[copper223]

@Dino
He is taking his sweet time to answer simple questions though, the second post you linked in particular makes me think he is misusing it.

@GGG
Bussing

[copper223]

@TTH
Sure I'm not going to ignore you! It was more of a reminder to myself about the bottom line, spending my time in this game telling you why I'm town here doesn't really help me to win.

@All
I'm not so sure, I'd lean more on it being a misuse of the term because he used bussing for scum choosing to vote no lynch which is kind of weird if you know the definition (distancing yourself from NL?). Dino did you check his alignment in the other game?

@GGG
That meta read you said you were doing on me is something I'd like to hear about.

[copper223]

@GGG
Many times, the last I remember was wgeurts in newbie game 1543, he said

kill

instead of lynch.

[copper223]

@GGG

Now i dont expect anyone to believe me but in a game with 3 scum posting that 3 scum are bussing me doesnt make sense unless i am using the word wrong.

Yes but you posted 1 or 2 max, not 3. What do you think of Texcat's bad logic then?

@Tex
If GGG flips scum there cannot be 3 bussing him (unless he busses himself) as there are 3 in total, it looks like you are assuming GGG is town while making a statement about what to think if he will flip scum, which could mean you know he is town to begin with and that's why your logic was bad.

What's your read on C+A?

[copper223]

@GGG
It kind of does because my question was: do you now think all three scum were on your L-1, and you replying, no 1 or 2 at most and 3 is out of the question could be a truthful answer (since you know 3 is impossible).

I'm working more on the link Dino gave where it really looks like you were using bussing instead of wagoning.

So you are not ignoring the Tex potential slip?

Here's the link for wgeurts:

Scumslip
Post #978 (ISO) » Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:44 pm

@Copper, I believe we could confirm BBT's role 99% if we kill OC. However I'm not willing to just wagon OC, will you also analyse OC with me?
We need to be fully sure of ourselves.

[copper223]

Congratz TTH, I was also checking that lylo believing that could sort of be scum meta on her and Nero should be spanked for that vote.

[copper223]

I want to quickly jot down my thoughts during lunch brake after checking her other game where her hydra with anti was a serial killer.

I am actually not so sure about my town read, if we end up going with Tex, C+A or myself and we flip town and she keeps going after the same people be careful, admittedly I am not so sure on C+A or Tex anymore as well.

- TTH replaced NRG who did not look town from his early posting.
- TTH had a reason to kill Boo because Boo was turning on her for overpressing on me at the end of D1.
- I did not think of it this way before but going after the 4 man voting block could be setting up mislynches, adding IK masked the whole thing for me but other than saying he might be scum she is not really pushing him and there is ample reason to do so as he has been a lurksack after what amounts to getting caught in my mind.
- TTH like most of you is guilty of selective scumhunting this game and ignoring the lurker slots.
- TTH also delayed replying to posts here as in her other SK game, I do not think she did tha in our other game where she was town.

This is all offset by her Rudi case and her intro posts, because those look like genuine town TTH to me.

[copper223]

@Dino
Thanks for the correction, as I said I was working on memory during the lunch brake, replacing CT is null for me then.

@Acryon
Delaying before replying can be a sign that you have to carefully prepare your statements and proof read them before posting because you are being careful about what you say, which may or may not be a scumtell, it may also just be a timing issue with TTH and RL near christmas, I was pointing out what I found similar in her SK game to this and different from her latest town game while it was still fresh.

Basically less developed reads (that's not the case here), being wrong most of the time (which for a good player like TTH I consider slightly scum indicative), still an open point for now, and delaying/active lurking are what stood out as different between town TTH in micro 415 and hydra SK TTH in the c9++ that just finished.

@Acryon and Dino
I think a player like TTH would have no problem feigning paranoia as mafia so that's null for me.

@C+A
Other than Tex and myself there is nobody who has showed interest in the MME and GIF slots, just the fact that these players/slots have recieved no pressure while being afk most of the game, especially the MME slot because at least some of the playerbase gave a town read on Orci/GIF is very strange from my pov, that's what I mean by most of you selectively scumhunting.

[copper223]

@Dino

In other arenas I question how being wrong is a scumtell for her. Like

I can give you loads of examples of her being wrong as town

. As I can with literally any player.
On selective scumhunting, how would you suggest we proceed? GIF is very solidly town for me, and while MME is not, if he's scum there are 2 others to look for. I'm not gonna forego looking at the scumreads in front of me in order to include everyone in my pushes.

Can't really push a player who's not here and lynching someone on V/LA D2 is highly suboptimal

.

There is a difference between being wrong in some cases and following the wrong track for the whole game, her mislynching Rudi on it's own means nothing for her alignment, her case on him actually makes her more likely town than mafia, but say we lynch Tex and she flips town, then we lynch Copper and I flip town, she comes in the next day wanting to lynch C+A, I'd say it's above 70% she is scum. Now today this means little as my own reads on Tex and C+A may be wrong and then I'm the one being mafia sided which would justify her push on me, but since I know her push is bad and I still think both Tex and C+A are more likely town I have to exame her motive more carefully than you maybe would.

Lynching the afk or V/LA slots is not something I'm suggesting, but I am the only one who has been actively asking for replacements or who has even mentioned them other than Tex, why isn't the rest of town worried about these slots to the point that you are fine ignoring them? That's what is worrying me.

[copper223]

@Dino
Last I heard MME should have been back from V/LA two days ago, so where is his catch-up? If you are going on V/LA for more than 3 weeks it's my opinion you should be replaced.

It seems to me GIF was replaced as a last ratio when he asked for it himself, frankly it looks like Elk unfortunately had one hell of a time finding replacements the first time we had a problem and is now very hesitant to do so again unless it's absolutely unavoidable, so if someone else other than me asked for a replacement or a prod when it's due I'd be grateful.

On TTH: once again being wrong is perfectly understandable, persevering is not and that's all this is about if it becomes relevant, I don't know, maybe it's also a bit of frustration coming through from me having to read ridiculous reads like GGG's you are playing too town to be town.

[copper223]

@TTH

Persevering isn't understandable given what happened with me and farside last game? She was scum but everyone insisted to me that not only was she town but absolutely beyond reproach.

They were calling her town

just because of her role

, you should have brought up the STFU rules and told the rest of town: what are you guys doing? Here this is not the case.

I thought about that btw, that's why I said I can factor in the paranoia on me, but then you went for: everyone voting with copper (especially the Rudi wagon one was forced) is likely scum with some weird VCA which you more or less admitted was fabricated to tell a story about those players instead of being relevant and you applied that selectively too, Aneninen has been sheeping me for most of the game, I'm thinking out of a townread on me or because we find the same things scummy but if I had to build a conspiracy theory that's not something I'd gloss over.

I don't remember you actually telling us: I'll reply to this when x in our other game like you did as SK more than once, I do remember your posts being well formed and quoting points that happened a few pages back but you did that also after replying to the more immediate points of interest so I thought you were re-reading, I'll check that out.

[copper223]

Welcome to the game.

[copper223]

Gonna have a read through the thread now.

If anyone wants to briefly fill me in on what's happened from their perspective including suspicions then that'd also help. x

I'd rather you reach your own conclusions and tell us what you think Ollie, if you need a few days to catch up that's perfectly fine.

[copper223]

Quite the opposite, I want his genuine reads because I think he may be mafia, if I had no worries about him as town I'd have just made my case on IK, said something along the lines of, nailed it right? now sheep me FTW.

Also I give people credit enough not to be influenced by me being polite.

[copper223]

Ah it was still part of the failed reaction test, my bad but he wasn't falling for it

[copper223]

@Dino
15 minutes later I'd say the only reaction you are getting is no reaction, you're right though that I have developped the bad habit of speed reading posts and replying immediately when I am online.

[copper223]

@Dino
Ollie has probably played before, he kind if says so himself with "first game onsite", he doesn't seem like a player who would scumslip and as far as alignment goes his reaction is null; I also read you as slightly more town for doing that.

[copper223]

@TTH
Your motives are not transparent so I'm trying to understand what you are doing with your hive mind theory, as I said my vote on the Rudi wagon was completely incidental and based on the fact I misread GIF's intent to hammer's timing, had I not I wouldn't have been on it but as Dino said I certainly thought Rudi could have been scum like most of the rest of the playerbase, so I don't really see any kind of indication you can draw from it.

What I think you made up is the VCA anaylsis to highlight something you thought, or wanted to push, beforehand and it mainly comes from this:

The source of my frustration with House, texcat, and your responses is that it feels like you're all is so wrapped up in the "VCA" when that's not really what I'm doing. I feel like the point's being lost in a morass of jargon that I'm unfamiliar with and I didn't mean to invoke in the first place.

To me you are implying here you used VCA whithout really doind any of it, only to highlight that you thought any of these 4 players could be mafia, you then later went on to say the common theme if there was one, was people you dropped the ball on yesterday to go on Rudi. First of all misusing scumhunting instruments to get your own results is a bad thing to do as town, I think it's scumindicative in general, admitting it yourself before someone called you out seems more town but I did ask you if you knew what you were doing and your reply was a prudent "someone told me how it is done but I'm unfamilar with it" (which gives you a loophole) so I can't really be sure.

I scumread GGG for the same reason you questioned him, I don't know why you decided what he did is weird but not mafia indicative, to me changing reads around because they look bad given the current wagon situation (which is only true if you assume knowledge of the alignment of the players being wagoned, i.e. that they all are town) and then not using this information (so it's not even something he thought about and decided, hey it's likely they are all town here, it's a piece of information he factored into one of his reads but forgot to use later) to decide who his scumreads are, makes it that much more likely that his scumreads are completely fabricated. I find it hard to understand why your main focus would be on who was on that L-1 wagon rather than how legitimate the votes on it were, unless once again you had a prior idea about what was going on/what you wanted us to believe.

Based on what you said my best guess about your motives, as either alignemnt, is you want to continue the push on Copper and possibly C+A, that's why I changed my hive mind theory into, people associating with Copper, either because they town read each other or because they are voting toghether, and found inconsistencies in the people you are leaving out of your analysis which are not apparent if you just take your hive mind theory at face value.

@C+A
I don't know what you are doing but I think about my scumreads seriously, someone else (or let's even say someone I consider a good player) coming in, pointing out two things about them that may be town or may not (read consistency is not town per se as I already explained, in fact being rigid about your scumreads may be a mafia tell for my scumplay) is not going to magically change how I view that slot.

If C+A hadn't said he was tired when making that statement I would FoS him for it.

[copper223]

Drunk right now. Will try to catch up tomorrow.

Drunken gut says coppers scun

Nice OMGUS.

[copper223]

@GGG
where is that meta read by the way? It's funny because after what you said about me playing too town to be town this game you have to either call me town after meta reading me or be prepared to be destroyed as soon as you call me mafia because there is no indication in my scumgame that I would give my scumreads the benefit of the doubt, in fact I tried my damndest to push them off the cliff. So is your solution to forget about that little tidbit and just call me scum regardless?

[copper223]

Read again my post about her hive theory, what is not transparent is how she reached the conclusion about these 4 players voting toghether, you yourself said the Rudi wagon has shit-all implications for the people involved, so you think she decided the 4 people - Aneninen were somehow more likely to be mafia because they were on the GGG wagon? I don't think so, I think she already believed or wanted us to believe that Copper (and possibly C+A, I haven't looked at that much because I don't know myself about him so any conclusions there are more tentative) was possibly scum and all this hive mind BS is just window dressing (either confbias as town or misdirection as scum) to hide the fact that that is the crux of the read she is giving.

I can't be more clear than this. As for TvT maybe, I can see both TTH town and TTH scum doing it, what I want is for town to understand that this hive mind theory is really nothing more than continuing her push on people she scumread D1 before Rudi with window dressing.

[copper223]

To me there is an easy and more likely world and some harder ones in this game, the easy world is:

GGG slipped after noticing his reads looked incriminating if the alignment of the three players wagoned D1 got revealed, TTH and myself noticed, IK thought it was a lost cause and bussed his teammate, but once the lynch stalled he changed his mind and invented the reaction test to justify his play and move off the wagon, slipping as well under pressure. I initially thought IK and GGG could not be toghether because of the way GGG was helping me nail IK but after the Texcat wagon started to pick up again he flipped his read on IK back to town, his motivation seems to be he doesn't believe in scumslips, but apparently he does when Texcat is involved. The third mafia is likely a player that was inactive at the time.

If I'm wrong here I'll start to consider more unlikely scenarios like Tex and C+A or TTH and Acryon.

[copper223]

Yes, in this case most of us were already onto GGG at the start of the day and ended up overthinking it because of the speed and apparent lack of resistance of his wagon, something similar happened in newbie 1543 where town was going to speed lynch scum 6 pages into day 1 but we ended up complicating the issue there as well.

[copper223]

Are you joking? Yes, I think IK is even more likely to be scum.

[copper223]

@Dino
I'm happy you are proud of your test but Ollie replying now doesn't mean your test worked, I actually find that post, 1 day later and after we discussed the test, contrived by him, so it's a null at best and slightly scummy at worst.

@TTH
Why are you getting defensive, I'm not even calling you scum at the moment while I had to put up with your paranoia (beginning with a nake vote at the start of D2) but I can't indulge in mine if that's what it is?

Regarding the VCA, I am not debating whether you're an expert or new to it, my point is, was that really an exercise in VCA or did you already have a group of players (mainly Copper and C+A) you found consciously or subconsciously scummy and that's why those two particular vote counts stood out to you? I think the latter is more likely, because the Rudi wagon in of itself means little and the GGG vote doesn't strike me as representative on it's own. The follow up where you said you were getting frustrated because the VCA was not the heart of the matter also leads me to belive my interpretation is correct.

I can see both Town TTH and Scum TTH renewing her D1 scumhunt so for your alignment that's a null, but for the rest of town and especially since GGG seems to be using it as a shield to hide behind and Acryon also gives credence to that theory, I think clearing up whether there really is something behind the hive mind theory or it's just a projection of how you see the game given your D1 scumreads is important.

@Ollie
No the cop is dead (as I'd hope you are well aware of), I am not confirmed and I don't have a check on you.

[copper223]

Fake reaction test in pinging me hard.

Ok I like you more now, your last 2 pages where giving me second thoughts.

[copper223]

@C+A
Are you scumreading Dino for it? I was talking about Ollie's reply. I think Dino's try to confirm Ollie is pretty townie.

[copper223]

@C+A
Doing that to your teammate is hella dangerous, unless he already played with Ollie it might blow up in his face. Whereas doing it as town to try and confirm a player he has a town read on, even if it's a long shot, seems like a good idea. I don't see why Dino scum tries to confirm Ollie town either, so I'm left thinking Dino is more town for it, unless he felt the need to try and look more townie, which I doubt since at the moment few people are pressing him.

[copper223]

@C+A
Ollie replying a day later though, that seems very weird to me. I don't know about you, but it's rare for me to join a game, post I'll do a re-read and leave to come back a day after, I'm always curious to see what's going on and even if I might not post before I have something valuable to say I'm going to check the major events in the game pretty quickly, so I don't buy his: oh my does he really have a check on me? 1 day after and with the cop dead, it looks more like someone trying to use the reaction test to confirm himself as town and scum is much more interested to do so.

[copper223]

Considering he's being widely townread, it gives him an opportunity to give his scum buddy an easy in, or supports his town read if Ollie is town (which you are eating up with a spoon).

I guess this is possible, but I don't think I'd try that as scum unless I knew the player.

[copper223]

I'm in three games atm (one on another site), & I had two quick games & a survivor game on this forum after I appeared in this thread. Oversubscribed myself as a newbie signing up to everything haha.

Fair enough, I can see you are in a marathon and that would explain it.

[copper223]

@GGG
Did I give my scumreads the benefit of the doubt?

[copper223]

@TTH

Because I'm in a pissy mood.

As such, I want to remove myself from the discussion today (real time day) so that none of you have to endure me but there's too much to do and I feel like I'm falling behind on this game.

Grab a mug and relax doing fun stuff!

[copper223]

@GGG

Anyone reading that game know you are full of it.

Quick summary of 415:
- I threw everything and my kitchen sink at Lia D1, in fact Alchemist almost turned on me for over pressing.
- I tried to bury alchemist/FG D2.
- D3 town outplayed scum so I couldn't really do much.
- I started my lylo by insta voting Cephrir and confirming Mollie D4.

Let's see what you come up with after reading my town game.

[copper223]

@Ollie

VOTE: Cane + Able

Reason?

[copper223]

VOTE: GGG
1. You give me a retarded scumread that I'm too town to be town because I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt when a townie wouldn't and say you will meta read me.
2. I know that if you do that you will find among the available scum meta that I did the exact opposite.
3. You reply that I behaved the same in both games
4. I tell everyone why you are full of shit

That's not use of self meta, that's showing why you are a liar.

[copper223]

@GGG

Even here I am your scum read and instead of pushing me as scum for doing this you point out the logical inconsistency. This sounds ridiculous but it's too town. Hence me wanting to look at your meta.

[copper223]

@GGG
I switched to FG, and notice he was not a scumread, he was someone I wanted to end up reading as null, only because nobody was following me on Lia and I never changed my read on her like I did with BMWS/Boo and Texcat already this game nor did I give her the chance to explain herself like I did with you.

The rest was me trying to look town by appearing to scumhunt as usual, if you hadn't blatantly lied about my scum meta I would have waited for your read on my town game, but there is no need now as I'm pretty sure you are scum.

[copper223]

@GGG
No, I never claimed to always play as I did in 415, that's why this has little to do with meta, I claim that the meta you just said to have done on me cannot yield the results you imply and thus you are lying.

I don't see why you would as town, so my conclusion is you are trying to misrep me here as mafia because painting me scum is a way to discredit the push on you.

[copper223]

@GGG
You are likely counting on most of town being too lazy to do their homework. Let's see what TTH has to say about it.

[copper223]

@GGG
Please continue to misrep as it just makes it obvious.

[copper223]

Why would I lie about my meta read on you if I am scum when anyone can go check. It's just dumb.

After sleeping on it this is the first point GGG makes in our back and forth which makes some sense to me.

[copper223]

@GGG
I can still see you taking that approach thinking you can justify it because meta reads are murky enough that both points of view may stand, but the fact TTH was in the game makes it less likely.

@TTH
I'd really like to know which pov you support on this.

[copper223]

For those who played with him, does GGG OMGUS a lot as town?

[copper223]

@Acryon
I presented my reason for joining or starting every push I made, picking two random players with similar voting patterns (not the same as you conveniently left out my Orcinus and IK votes and my early BMWS scumresd) is pretty scummy of you.

By the same token you should scumread Aneninen for sheeping me all game, or Ollie for doing the same since he joined, why then did you select Copper and C+A in particular?

Answer: only player scumreading you and player you failed to push D1... honestly this game is pretty hard because some of the town players are dropping the ball big time.

I can give an identical vote similarity between you and TTH btw, in fact other than myself TTH is the other player being sheeped this game, which leads me to believe that we both have scum sheeping us on the cases where we are wrong.

[copper223]

@Acryon
1. Every active player at the time was on your wagon, I at least took the time to check you out but either PR or scum it affected your play and made you flippant compared tp your normal baseline.
2. Your reasoning on the Rudi wagon is a joke.
3. I initiated the push on GGG, I had no clue he would almost be lynched, might as well call my vote on IK opprtunistic.

Frankly none of this bears replying to.

@IK
Ask for a replacement or post something meaningful.

[copper223]

@TTH
With all that is happening I can only give you conditional reads on the phone.

If GGG is town C+A and Tex are likely scum.

If Acryon is PR C+A is more likely scum than town but less scummy than IK/GGG.

If Tex is town, C+A is likely town as well.

@Acryon
I'll reply tonight at home, some things are not coming across via phone.

[copper223]

@Acryon
If we were going to lynch based on bad play you should be dead either way, I also recognize being completly objective is impossible but you are off the charts. I can't quote posts but what are you going on about when quoting yourself and your play not being effective?

@All
The source of my townread on C+A is his townread of Tex at the start of D2 where he quotes a game they play toghether. If Tex is town there is very little reason for scum C+A to WK her there when she was dead in the water. There is the case where they are scum toghether but first of all it's less statistically likely and that would mean from my pov I got 2 indipendent townreads wrong.

If Tex and C+A are town it's very likely GGG is scum, otherwise that lynch would have likely gone through.

The reason why I'm second guessing myself is I haven't factored in all the pressure coming my way.

[copper223]

@Acryon
So if you are doc you screwed town being so scummy D1 you had to claim, if you are VT and fake claiming that's also mafia sided, only if you are scum does your claim actually help your alignment, based on your criteria you should vote yourself first and foremost.

Or shall we lynch TTH because she was wrong on Rudi?

I don't even know if C+A is playing anti-town at the moment, he lurked for a lot of D2 and that is certainly not pro town but if GGG is scum he is actually very strongly townsided, your accusations make less and less sense to me.

[copper223]

@TTH

If Tex is town there is very little reason for scum C+A to WK her there when she was dead in the water.

"Dead in the water" and "wagon never got past 3 votes" don't compute for me. Do they for you?

Read again the beginning of the day, I FoSed Texcat for the Boo NK, I was about to vote her before I reviewed GGG's ISO, if C+A wanted to join that would have been 5, Acryon amongs others later found her scummy as well. There was no player town reading Texcat at the time, so that C+A town read makes me think same aligment and town is more likely.

@Acryon
What are you talking about, IK's and GGG's wagons are both being soft defended with null reads or hard defended with town reads, what is the point anyway, I just need one instance of that kind of read, in fact if C+A made it his business to routinely WK scumread players his Texcat read would have lost a lot of it's value as far as guessing his motives goes.

[copper223]

If Tex is town there is very little reason for scum C+A to WK her there when she was dead in the water.

"Dead in the water" and "wagon never got past 3 votes" don't compute for me. Do they for you?

If so, then Texcat, GGG, and IdiotKing have all been "dead in the water."

[copper223]

@Acryon
I said that based on the climate at the time, I was about to vote her, TTH voted her, Dino voted her, all the movers and shakers of this game where pushing for the lynch and it looked like she was a goner as nobody was defending her, she implies so herself in her post with: I'm the obvious mislynch for today, I did not even check the number the wagon reached because it wasn't relevant, after playing a bit you get a feel for who is very likely getting lynched and she was it, you were busy with RL events so it may not be so obvious to you but it should be to anyone active at the time.

[copper223]

@Mod
second Acryon on the extension request

[copper223]

kol

[copper223]

lol on the kol

[copper223]

This is just peaches, I think IK should get a 1 month ban for pulling this crap if he is scum.

[copper223]

@All townreading GGG
Please tell me what you are smoking so I can try it as well?

@GGG
How is that replacement post in any way townie? If you want to argue he is town despite it I disagree but we can talk about it, but getting a townread from a lurksack that after getting caught slipping refused to produce any content and put us in a situation where we have to chose whether to blind hammer or leave the slot alone for today boggles my mind. The only town reason I could see for your frankly abysmal read is confbias but you say yourself you are quite immune to it so you better fucking be scum, my only worry is can scum be so oblivious about how scummy their statements are?

[copper223]

And the answer I've been getting is yes if they are defending their teammate.

[copper223]

@C+A
Do you realize you just hammered?

[copper223]

@Mod this thread should be locked

Merry Christmas folks!

[copper223]

@Acryon

Too bad your medic dodge hit the other doc.

VOTE: Acryon

Here's my D1 PR hint and why I would have never killed Boo as scum this game (as she was the contingency confirmation plan if my claim came into question)

I

dislike

talk of setups in general because I assume power roles know how to play their roles

I have been playing with Bookitty

This is what I said as PR (I could have been BP or Doc to Boo for most of the game in question) in 1551, addressing her:

PR Discussion with Boo I agree, but role hunting or even giving the impression of role hunting as town is counter productive, so there are better questions to ask if you want to figure out my level of experience or my preconceptions about the game.

I was planning to use the fact we had a discussion about how scummy Boo's PR question to me was in our previous game to either confirm myself or know she was scum toghether with the player I was likely going to cc, but I already had a pretty decent townread on her at the time so it was more of a safety net.

My play yesterday and my scumread on Acryon should also make sense, the townies pressuring me, especially those I saved at night, can thank me post game and please try to win .