NY 177: Simple Complexity (GAME OVER: Scum Wins!)

[House]

Summary

: Pretty much everything above is groupscum hunting. If I said probTown or similar, what I'm really saying is "not groupscum." Reinoe gets a pass here because of Titus and Psyche's behavior, Skybird I'm inclined to give a pass because I'm doubting multimafia in one neighborhood, Marquis cleared for several good reasons.

Remaining mafia options:
Pine no
Reinoe no
House maybe?
Shaddowez maybe? Psyche's last post
Skybird scummy, but unlikely to have two mafia in one neighborhood
Marquis no

I don't particularly read sky as scum, I can't see Wake putting someone he feels necessary to protect so bad as to overstep his authority as mod to ask town to go easy on her into a scum slot. I'd have trouble justifying playing in any more of his games if he were that manipulative.

That said, your logic of but having multifaction scum in the same hood is bogus. Wake has a history of doing that in multiball.

[House]

but = not

[House]

Remaining mafiascum is

most likely

Shadow

SK, if we miss them today, should shoot Shadow

We should not be voting Shadow, we should be ISOing all living players for evidence of SK, which I haven't had time to do

Tell me how it makes sense not voting for scum.

I want some of what you are smoking.

[House]

I don't particularly read sky as scum, I can't see Wake putting someone he feels necessary to protect so bad as to overstep his authority as mod to ask town to go easy on her into a scum slot.

THIS WAS MY ORIGINAL THOUGHT

I don't think I ever argued with it. o_o

[House]

Remaining mafiascum is

most likely

Shadow

SK, if we miss them today, should shoot Shadow

We should not be voting Shadow, we should be ISOing all living players for evidence of SK, which I haven't had time to do

Tell me how it makes sense not voting for scum.

I want some of what you are smoking.

Reason 1

SK is most likely bulletproof

Ergo, if we mislynch, SK can't be NKed, but mafia might be

Reason 2

Mafia is easier to deduce based on interactions

Mafia may be (but probably isn't) eliminated

Ergo, if Mafia is eliminated, all the associative tells are bunk, and that read is wrong anyway

No.

If we leave known scum alive and guess wrong, that will bring us down to four alive.

If SK and mafia both NK town, we're boned.

Kill scum when you have scum.

[House]

VOTE: shaddowez

I didn't want to rush a lynch right out the gate because I wanted to see what people thought first.

Happy with my read, now.

[House]

Nnnnno.

First, I'm having second thoughts about Shadow as mafiascum

Second, we need to out in some serious brain time on the identity of the SK

I think we really need to take a long look at who scum have been building cases against. They've been SK hunting all game

Your logic is fine, you just picked the wrong faction.

Shaddowez = SK.

[House]

I've been town reading shadow for his scum hunting, but others have him fingered as scum due to PoE

SK explains the contradiction, as SK has to scum hunt to stay alive.

[House]

actually wake defending sk!skybird makes sense too.

No. Just... No.

If sky is SK, I'll disband my hydra with Wake and never play in another game he is any part of.

[House]

Well I'm leaving my vote on shadow as I don't have reliable net access.

[House]

Wouldn't it be better to do tomorrow?

NK's can still hurt us.

[House]

My post regarding Shaitra had nothing to do with alignment.

Shaitra? Who is that?

[House]

My post regarding Shaitra had nothing to do with alignment.

Oh, skybird...welcome to MS, Shaitra!

Regardless of how your post was intended, you can see how it looks if she winds up scum after a mod request for kid gloves, yes?

[House]

I'd rather not, but I crumbed a while back if people want to ISO me.

[House]

Single NK gives us a day to find the last scum/SK if we lynch correctly (which I think we are dead on), or we are boned unless they attack each other tonight (which would be awesome but not likely).

shaddowez being sk explains why I was reading him as town due to scum hunting and the apparent contradiction other players have of scum reading him due to PoE, so I am happy with my vote being here.

[House]

Bro, that is one of the dumbest posts you've made. Of course shaddowez is scum. Marquis and you both made excellent cases on him. But here you are waffling.

Get your head right.

[House]

Fine. I was hoping to have one more night of usefulness, but have it your way. We're too close to losing for me to keep my mouth shut anymore.

I am a bomb.

Post 4272 is my crumb, and I also crumbed my role in post 5056.

I

nterestingly enough, oka made it to L-1 pretty quick with reinoe's claim.

A

ctually didn't think votes would pile on so fast.

M

aybe we can get him lynched after all.

B

ut there's little doubt one claim or the other is fake.

O

f course, if I'm wrong about oka, it would have to be reinoe.

M

ust have a scummer between the two of them, though.

B

leh, not as certain as I initially was, but still happy with my vote.

B

ro, that is one of the dumbest posts you've made.

O

f course shaddowez is scum.

M

arquis and you both made excellent cases on him.

B

ut here you are waffling.

Get your head right.

That's why I've been pushing people so hard... trying to draw the NK.

[House]

I was hoping to have one more night of usefulness, but have it your way. We're too close to losing for me to keep my mouth shut anymore.

I am a bomb.

Also, this makes no sense and is not a town way to claim given that the lynch is already secured and we're all just waiting for Wake.

Last I knew, he was at L-1.

About crumbing, it's the first game I've ever had to. I couldn't very well ask anyone how to crumb my role, so I had to figure it out.

[House]

Yosup, Marquis?

[House]

I counted 3 votes for Shaddowez. I don't think Wake's post to start the day was correct. He had 6 alive and 4 to lynch. But I think there is only 5 of us left alive.

Pine
shaddowez
Skybird
House
Marquis

You're right.

[House]

shaddowez, if you're not the SK, I hope he/she takes you out for your shitty play today.

[House]

Woo, memory= terribad.

Hope we got the SK, though.

[House]

Skybird & Marquis seem to be the odd players out, because I'm sold on Pine!town.

[House]

A lot will depend on flip here. I'm 100% on Marquis not being mafiascum, and I'm somewhat confident Skybird is not mafiascum.

Therefore, if Shaddowez flips SK, House gets the noose

If Shaddowez flips mafia, I'm a bit at square one

If Shaddowez flips Town...we're a little fucked. That'd put us 2:1:1, and only cross shots would keep Town out of Kingmaker position

Is is why I didn't want to rush

Don't be so quick to kill me unless you're campaigning for a scum or SK win.

[House]

Yes, I would be quick on you if we get a Shaddowez SK flip and I survive. Skybird and Marquis are not mafia

You know,

if

I were scum, you'd be giving me every reason to NK you. And if shaddowez

is

town, you're throwing the game away because the SK would target elsewhere thinking scum!me would target you.

Smart play, Pine. Real smart.

[House]

Although, that play makes perfect sense as the SK setting up to mislynch for the win after killing the last mafia member tonight.

That strikes me as more along your kind of play, I just can't see you fucking up that hard as town.

[House]

Aha...that note of alarm in your writing tells me I'm on the right track

You went from this...

Skybird & Marquis seem to be the odd players out, because I'm sold on Pine!town.

To this...

Although, that play makes perfect sense as the SK setting up to mislynch for the win after killing the last mafia member tonight.

That strikes me as more along your kind of play, I just can't see you fucking up that hard as town.

Really quickly

You're actually making my point. You're too good a player to fuck up as bad as that post would be for town. It makes far more sense coming from scum!Pine.

[House]

If Shaddowez flips Town...we're a little fucked. That'd put us 2:1:1, and only cross shots would keep Town out of Kingmaker position

I think I'm lynched already, but even so House is scum. I should've gone with my gut way back when when I thought Alina was scum.

I'm a 1-shot BP. There was no mafia kill last night, and all of a sudden House is insistent I'm scum/SK. Also, he was the only one outright opposed to massclaim.

I was still trying to search out the SK, which is why I didn't claim this earlier toDay. In case it matters,
VOTE: House

That doesn't strike me as the kind of post that would be made by somebody that is about to flip scum.

You are trying to sell me as groupscum, so you have made it easy for groupscum and soloscum to avoid a cross kill.

Dumb move for town. Really dumb.

[House]

Shaddowez, like all of us, probably thought it was L-1, and was looking to get out of it

Sure he did.

I think I'm lynched already

, but even so House is scum. I should've gone with my gut way back when when I thought Alina was scum.

I'm a 1-shot BP. There was no mafia kill last night, and all of a sudden House is insistent I'm scum/SK. Also, he was the only one outright opposed to massclaim.

I was still trying to search out the SK, which is why I didn't claim this earlier toDay. In case it matters,
VOTE: House

[House]

Way to set me up.

I should have known the fake masons would be a scum team.

VOTE: Marquis

[House]

I'm willing to give you some time to come back and focus on this game, but this MiLo feels like a long game that has been played to set me up as an easy last day mislynch and I am having trouble picturing skybird being able to utilize those kinds of tactics, so I feel my paranoia at this stage is pretty fucking justified.

[/unvote][/unvote]

[House]

UNVOTE:

[House]

I'd rather let it gestate and see what it turns into.

Today's lynch needs to be in {Aero, Psyche, Tree}. Probably tomorrow's lynch, too.

Aero & Psyche were scum. Would Jiffy be so bold as to throw all of his scum buddies out there like that?

[House]

I don't get where Maria thinks he is so obvtown, but I missed a lot of the game.

I don't see you being scum because of the comment Wake made, but that could just be rose colored glasses on my part.

I haven't had a ton of time to engage through all the posts in this thread, and that's not going to change any time soon.

I'm having to cut back on the number of games I'm in because work is chaotic right now and I am slim on time.

I'm waiting to see what Marquis has to say before I make up my mind. Last time I didn't wait didn't turn out so well for town.

[House]

Oops... Maria = Marquis. Sorry

[House]

Marquis pointing out that there could be a quick hammer seems town. But it could also have been scum trying to get out of being lynched.

Aneinen actually did that very thing in my last completed game and wound up winning because of it.

He was scum.

[House]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p6391959

[House]

A lot of this stuff with you happened before I replaced in, and I admit I haven't done my homework as much as I should have. I will go back and start reading up on that now.

The last time I jumped to conclusions and quick-voted ended terribly for town and wound up alienating somebody that could have been interesting to pay games with in the future, and I don't want to repeat that mistake if at all possible.

Sorry for following my gut, I'm not nearly experienced enough for it to be reliable yet.

[House]

The last time I jumped to conclusions and quick-voted ended terribly for town and wound up alienating somebody that could have been interesting to pay games with in the future, and I don't want to repeat that mistake if at all possible.

when you say things like this what i'm trying to figure out is if that had enough of an impact on you to stop doing that and you're actually scum here for how this day started out, or if you're town who can't learn a lesson/still overconfident. i'm trying to figure it out. i'm having a hard time with it.

I've a shit memory and it didn't Dan on me what I was doing until your post following my vote, when I got all like, "oh shit, not again..."

[House]

Dan = dawn

[House]

Still having a hard time buying skybird!scum.

You made some good points, but I'd like to see her response.

[House]

So if you play this way as either alignment, that doesn't tell us much.

What about his other points? What's your analysis of the VC you asked Wake to fix?

[House]

Thanks for that, skybird.

Marquis, remember what I said I didn't think skybird would be capable of?

I am thinking I was underestimating her. She seems rather capable.

[House]

Is that VCA including tree votes?

[House]

House, yes, Tree was an alt of Marquis'. So he's really been in the game the whole time.

I know this.

I was asking if you included his alt's votes in your VCA.

[House]

The conflict I am having right now is that you have been portrayed by Wake as needing to be handled with kid gloves, leading me to believe that you were inexperienced and... basically... fragile.

When I learned your USMB handle, it explained a bit, but you are generally a borderline inactive player over there from what I've seen of your play, so your VCA came as a bit of a surprise to me.

I'm starting to wonder if you are hiding some mastermind scheming behind that polite exterior, lol.

Why did you ask Marquis the reason he unvoted?

[House]

Vote Count
1.1 Majiffy votes Tree
1.2 Majiffy votes Tree
1.3 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Majiffy
1.4 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Majiffy (Tree has 5 votes)
1.5 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Majiffy (Tree has 5 votes)
1.6 Majiffy votes Aero, Psyche votes Aero, Tree votes Titus (Tree has 4 votes)
1.7 Majiffy votes Aero, Psyche votes Aero, Tree votes Titus (Tree has 4 votes)
1.8 Psyche unvotes, Tree votes Royal Ape, Majiffy votes Tree
1.9 Psyche no votes, Tree votes Royal Ape, Majiffy votes Tree
1.10 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree votes Oka, Psyche no vote
1.11 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree votes Oka, Psyche no vote
1.12 Tree votes Texcat, Psyche votes notscience, Majiffy votes Titus
1.13 Tree votes Texcat, Psyche votes notscience, Majiffy votes Titus
1.14 Tree and Psyche vote Texcat, Majiffy votes Titus (Tree has 1 vote)
1.15 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Texcat (Tree has 4 votes)
1.16 Tree(now Marquis) votes Texcat, Psyche votes Oka, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 4 votes)
1.17 Marquis and Psyche vote Texcat, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 3 votes)
1.18 Marquis and Psyche vote Aegor, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 1 vote)
1.19 Marquis votes Texcat, Psyche votes Aegor, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 1 vote) Aegor lynched
2.1 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche no vote
2.2 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche no vote
2.3 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche no vote
2.4 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche hammers Aero Aero lynched
3.1 Marquis votes Shaddowez, Jiffy, Psyche no vote (Psyche has 2 votes)
3.2 Marquis and Psyche vote PV, Jiffy no vote (Psyche has 1 vote)
3.3 Marquis and Psyche vote PV, Jiffy no vote (Psyche has 0 votes, Marquis has 1 vote)
3.4 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.5 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.6 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.7 Marquis votes TN, Psyche votes PV, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.8 Marquis and Psyche vote PV, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.9 Marquis votes TN, Psyche votes PV, Majiffy votes Mirhawk TN lynched
4.1 Marquis and Psyche vote Majiffy, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
4.2 Marquis and Psyche vote Majiffy, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
4.3 Marquis and Psyche both voting for Majiffy. Majiffy votes Oka. Majiffy Stabbed. Oka lynched
5.1 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote
5.2 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote
5.3 Marquis votes PV, Psyche votes Reinoe
5.4 Marquis votes PV, Psyche votes Reinoe
5.5 Marquis votes PV, Psyche votes Reinoe PV self-hammers
6.1 marquis votes House, Psyche no vote
6.2 Marquis votes Shaddowez, Psyche no vote
6.3 Marquis votes Shaddowez, Psyche no vote
6.4 Marquis and Psyche vote Shaddowez Psyche lynched
7.1 Marquis votes Shaddowez Shaddowez lynched


I had this in a spreadsheet but it didn't translate over as well as I wanted. I have wondered why Marquis dropped his Tree alt. Part of me thinks he did it because a lot of people were scum reading him as Tree. That's why I was making a note of how many votes Tree/Marquis had.

He

was

looking pretty scummy early game as tree, lol.

[House]

The tree shenanigans had my scumdar ringing off the hook, as it did for most folks from what I could tell on catch-up.

I think the fake masons claim was to save Marquis as much as it was to help Psyche.

Now he's trying to hide behind a bunch of game theory, but somebody that is so knowledgeable about theory can easily mold their playstyle to fit what they are selling as town play.

Marquis should have been lynched long ago, it's the fake masons claim that kept him alive. When the claim was outed as fake, he had done enough damage control that town overlooked the start of the game due to several replacements that weren't there for it (like me) and general apathy for things that happened too far back to bother worrying about.

I'm sure he's our remaining scum. I'm going to go ahead and vote because I know you are town now, hammer when you are satisfied with your read.

VOTE: Marquis

[House]

According to YOUR game theory, you are town. Do explain why scum would not mold supposed theory to fit their play. That would be quite informative.

And now I'm scum since I made my decision? Yeah, right.

[House]

Actually, I see you kept your options open there at the end of your post.

[House]

Skybird is town, and your play since the start of the game has been scum as fuck. You've been buddying me like mad to get me to vote Skybird with you, and since I won't do it, you are all of a sudden accusing me of being scum.

If you beloved she was scum like you were pushing, you wouldn't be trying to get me lynched now.

All you want to do is save your own skin.

[House]

Beloved = believed

...

[House]

All you want to do is save your own skin.

yes i think i have said that many times

i mean if i die we lose

and we've come so far

so yeah

manipulative!-marquis!-experienced!-scum! theory time: do you (skybird or house, i don't fucking care anymore) really think i would be as open about trying to survive as i have been this day, if i were actually scum?

Yes. Trying to hide what's obvious would only serve to further indict you.

That said,

UNVOTE:

Why is it that you don't post about anything until you are voted, then you immediately jump back into the thread?

[House]

VOTE: skybird

Gg all.

[House]

Shout out to my associates

Majiffy
Psyche
Aeronaut
Alina (thanks for giving me a great background)

[House]

Pine would have tunneled the shit out of me today, he had me dead to rights.

[House]

sorry guys.

i actually thought initially that house killing pine made sense to get me to vote incorrectly. but then he voted me right away so i (wrongly) discarded the notion

I figured you would wind up voting me, so I had to go on the offensive to limit the damage and appeal to skybird.

[House]

Lol!

Read the ice scum chat in game 5.

I straight up said I'd mold my town game to my scum play.

It's hard to do that, though. So far I have better play as scum than town.

[House]

yeah I've come to learn that survivalism isn't indicative of alignment, how the player presents it is

I shouldn't be continuing to talk theory though when I messed up lylo though. I should give players less leeway in the future and not just hand out townreads if players say uninformed-sounding things.

pedit speaking of offsite experience it was really frustrating that it was refused :/ just curious as to why

I don't recall refusing anything. I've posted my USMB links in quite a few games.

[House]

@skybird: i asked if you could provide me with an example of your play from an offsite game since you guys were talking about it so much but you said you didn't want to

also should have stuck with my original interpretation of wake's post but i guess i had too much faith that he wouldn't really do something with such an obvious conclusion as that.his post practically confirmed you as town but i guess i thought "nah wake would never interfere to make it that easy"

Yeah, I actually used Wake's post as a springboard for my townread of Skybird so I wouldn't have to justify it by her playstyle.

Less work = less chances to fuck up.

[House]

Skybird was Town because two mafiascum in the same neighborhood is unbalanced

I FORGOT ABOUT THIS.
ugh. i'm not pleased with myself.

I'd have argued that point all day long, because I've played in a Wake game where he put multiple scum in a good before.

[House]

Hood*

[House]

As soon as House turned on me after no NK, I knew he was the last scum. I also knew there was no easy way I was going to convince anyone of that without outing myself, so I was trying to figure out a way to do so. Personally, I think I had a pretty good run, and enjoyed the game. Nicely done scumteam!

That's when you sorted me?

Hell, I figured the SK had me pegged and had plans to kill me to get to LyLo after using scum NK's to thin out the game.

[House]

VOTE: Marquis (Scum MVP)

[House]

Pine was awesome as town during the time I got to see him play.

He had me cold & had to go.

[House]

I was playing, don't be so hard on yourself.

I deep pretty hard as town because I'm clueless. In the future, just figure out if I'm paying too good to be town.

[House]

Derp*

[House]

Playing*

Dammit!

[House]

VOTE: Marquis (Scum MVP)

This is a kinda jerky thing to say.

Unintentionally so, it was meant as a good-natured ribbing.

[House]

I messed up later into the game as work/busy-ness took over, in that I didn't provide VCs as frequently as I wanted to.

Will be refining the way I post in future games I mod.

The Large themed game I'm preparing is aimed at being massive, chaotic, and with some diabolical mechanics in place. House may recall USMB games #5, and #6, and others may remember games #1, #2, and #3.

Well this be a 40 player game, by chance?

[House]

Neat. I'm in, though I'm rubbish at keeping up in larges until the population is reduced to a reasonable number. Maybe impose a wisdom of the crowds rule to hedge out players known for postspamming. They tend to kill large games

I've already /pre-inned. :p

[House]

Dibs on day vig!

[House]

Better make that bulletproof day vig!