NY 177: Simple Complexity (GAME OVER: Scum Wins!)

[Marquis]

assuming Godfather

never do this

[Marquis]

If we weren't masons I would think Psyche could be scum actually because of Majiffy being all like "the claim is shit and they're both scum but let's lynch Marquis first and keep my vote on him and while I'm saying a lot about Psyche being scum with Marquis watch as I never actually follow up on that and only want to lynch Marquis" which would really point to Psyche scum
But also this isn't a bastard game so the longwinded speculation is moot

[Marquis]

your point of view is exhausting and i don't have the energy right now to try and talk you down from this

[Marquis]

there's this huge part of me that just wants to say fuck everything and let you go through with this

i mean i already got my majiffy scumflip

as far as i care i'm checked out and i've already won

[Marquis]

why don't we talk about this in our mason qt marquis

troll them not me

[Marquis]

Pine replaces zMuffinMan immediately. Thank you!!!

i was right about my zmuffin townread! yes yes

[Marquis]

House, you have precisely one post to unvote a Cop inno, or you get my vote

i'm cool with this on policy
but gamewise i think he's just illogical town

[Marquis]

pine can you vote pv please

we are the last 2 people and have been for a while, in an originally 4 person neighborhood, where the others flipped town
and i had some good points on pv day 1 and i can't remember them all but i do remember pv in our neighborhood saying he wanted to scumhunt within our neighborhood but when someone in the neighborhood was actually a wagon or suspected he was against it- like he was trying to keep us around him to make process of elimination harder

[Marquis]

house at the very least purely on mafia theory you should not be voting gameplay/reinoe today
and when taking into account what went on this game they are most likely not groupscum because of majiffy's attempts to discredit the cop results

the hoods:

marquis

/

titus

/pv/

texcat

tn5421

/

aero

/

gameplay

/skybird

mirhawk

/

aegor

/

oka

/shadow

green for flipped town > blue for role info town > red for flipped scum

statistically speaking one of pv and shadow are guaranteed to be scum.
we should be lynching one of them today

and even ignoring the neighborhood distribution
pv is likely scum due to his attitude about lynching out of the neighborhood- a contrast between votes and previously stated actions, in which he said he was ok with hunting out of the neighborhood earlier but when it started to get serious, he completely backed off

also once we started to seriously consider pv as a lynch option he finally got fired up/active to fight off people accusing him, then faded away soon after
once i open up with a vote on him today, with reinoe following, he suddenly starts to be active again
that's a scum level of game involvement

Royal and Peregrine are tomorrow's candidates for lynching.

Reinoe > PV

I don't like Psyche's sudden drop in activity. PV has also become scarce.

EBWOP:

So has majiff and zMuff. They haven't posted at all this DP.

The day just started.

VOTE: Psyche

(marquis!note: notable because of the choice of vote, over pv who was also a consideration
also noting the psyche vote and my other crack!theory might have been off)

This is either a prod-dodge or a placeholder so I know I'm caught up.

I'll let you decide.

Willing to move my vote to PV in event of deadline. Would still prefer Mirhawk.

(marquis!note: he never did vote pv, or actually consider moving his vote again for that dayphase. majiffy's votes are pretty much almost all on town if i'm not mistaken. it seems likely that he would do that whole "i'd be willing to vote <partner> but i never actually will" thing)

^ not to mention majiffy's posts about pv are very limited- only interacted basically to say "no, vote tree/marquis", always downplaying the idea of a pv lynch in comparison to other lynches, and never directly gave any sort of read about pv while joking around with him, which signals a comfortable scumpartner interaction

also looking at pv's iso for interactions about/with majiffy and this is all that stood out:

come on pv, critical reading

*sigh*

Who are your other 3 scumreads besides Majiffy?

(redirecting)

Vote: Marquis

OK, Jiffy, let's see money where your mouth is.

(context note: this comes after pv hadn't addressed majiffy's push on me

at all

except for a

townread

on me on day 1)

[Marquis]

On my phone but

"Scum do not have Daytalk. They may scheme in their QT thread at Night."

@mod, do you consider pregame to be "night 0"?

[Marquis]

these past two days have just been me growing more paranoid of psyche while simultaneously still wanting to get nightkilled for "being a mason"

[Marquis]

If we weren't masons I would think Psyche could be scum actually because of Majiffy being all like "the claim is shit and they're both scum but let's lynch Marquis first and keep my vote on him and while I'm saying a lot about Psyche being scum with Marquis watch as I never actually follow up on that and only want to lynch Marquis" which would really point to Psyche scum
But also this isn't a bastard game so the longwinded speculation is moot

[Marquis]

psa: i'm horribly sick and will get to this game later tonight or tomorrow morning. sorry for all the prod dodging

[Marquis]

i was about to replace out of this game like my others due to rl and health problems.
but i'm going to do this first:
1) i claimed masons with psyche because i was damn sure that pv was scum, and i had a hard townread on psyche. i didn't want any distractions from the pv wagon which is what appeared to be forming
2) i was paranoid earlier, but psyche's recent posting makes me confident in my townread on him anyway
3) psyche is a distraction anyway; scum is trying to redirect attention away from the neighborhoods, which there is sure to be scum in (remember these people saying "there's scum in the neighborhoods" and now saying "nah there totally isn't" once they're whittled down)
now i'm going to ask
given that my activity from now on will be extremely limited, with a focus on moderating my games
should i stay or should i go

[Marquis]

I have decided not to abandon this game after fucking up.

One or both of PV/Shadow is scum. The above vote and reasoning was horrible.

[Marquis]

If I was Vanilla, of course I would go with it.

It would increase the chances of scum wasting their nightkill on me thinking I'm a PR.

There is little to no precedent on this site for lynching out of a pair of claimed Masons, especially with how Psyche and I treated each other previously (strong townreads, no hints of scumreading).

In fact, as far as I can remember it was mainly Majiffy who continued to push lynching me in spite of the mason claim- the only effect it had on him was making him change his tune from "Marquis is scum" to "Marquis and Psyche are scum". It was because of him that the Mason paranoia was built up so high, and I think scum are and have been excited to have this paranoia exist as a distraction from themselves.

If you're not scum, then who is scum between me and PV? It's incredibly frustrating that both you and PV are ignoring the 2/4 and 1/4 living neighborhoods without flipped scum already, and I'm thinking you two are scum for it. Neighborhoods of this size and with all-town flips so far are great benefits to have in terms of scumhunting/process of elimination, and at the very least PV should know it.

That's it for now, the medicine is kicking in. Night.

[Marquis]

Last time: even if you think Psyche is scum, the best course of action is to lynch one of me/PV/Shadow (last members of neighborhoods whose other members were town) today.

[Marquis]

Pine is town. Lynch PV.

[Marquis]

I should mention before I forget that the only reason I stopped focusing on my notscience scumread is because I had thought from a sudden next post of notscience's that seemed to be heavily crumbing something that he and Majiffy were linked or knew each other were town.

I do not have a notscience townread and thinking about it again in light of the Majiffy scumflip makes me think he's scum.

[Marquis]

I voted notscience and expressed my scumread on him prior to the following:

You've officially lost your

"Can read NS" card btw

*whistling*

New page.

Post-Edit: I'm pretty sure I'm 100% for reading you, scumbird.

K marquis

it's your funeral

Oh no my secret identity has been revealed for the hundredth time

You should just give up on both fronts, kthxbye.

I've already given up

Majiffy, my love

I am afraid to inform you that I have yet again snowed you and am in fact scum. Please vote me accordingly.

VOTE: oka

Fuck you.

(directed at NS because I thought he this was a crumb for... *some* power role related to Majiffy)

Sorry that was mean.

I'm upset.

[Marquis]

what does that even imply
that i have a townread on psyche and would really rather lynch scum today?
mmmmyeah

[Marquis]

VOTE: house

townread decimated.

[Marquis]

i really don't like how you two are generating mass paranoia

i mostly don't like in particular house's comment on me in 4829. that post ruins any townread i had on him previously. it's like he's trying to bring me back into the lynch pool, when no i wasn't considered scummy prior to the mason claim (that was just majiffy pushing me hard, who once again, flipped scum [iirc tn stopped scumreading and started townreading me unrelated to that])

and then 4842 is like lolwtf talking for the sake of talking

i just don't think house is town and with 7 (?) left the chance of my read finally being right is pretty good (sorry pv yes i regret the neighborhood assumption)

[Marquis]

I'm having a hard time distinguishing between who's scum and who's town with poor theory.

First off ignoring that, I see town in:

reinoe - cop clear, I like his stances, logical and his mentality regarding the gamestate is so close to mine it's uncanny.
Psyche - I think my paranoia earlier was just that, paranoia. With Psyche posting again, his attitude toward the game is like mine, he's making sense and trying to redirect to himself rather than me, and it strongly reminds me of [redacted] where we were both town.

but if you're already set on lynching both of us,
it really makes no sense not to first lynch the guy who has signaled time and time again that he doesn't have the resources to adequately play this game

liking this.

I don't really like how there were two votes on me, then it easily shifted to Psyche. It's like House even though he's up for lynching both of us, didn't want to be a late vote on my wagon, but only easily voted a fresh Psyche wagon.

Back to my original comment, I think Pine is either SK or town with a bad interpretation of the actions- I don't think he's groupscum, the attitude he's taking toward the mason claim looks like he genuinely doesn't know about any potential state of the scumteam.

Leaving

Skybird
shaddowez

PoE points to these two being scum, not to mention them already being scum on my wagon could be a big reason why it's stalled.

I thought Skybird was just new. Wake's 4093 is what made me feel that (example of why mod comments like this should not happen ever). But I'm thinking now I could be wrong, since PoE and her position on my wagon trump that (example again).

The thing with shadow is that I can accept being wrong about my neighborhood having a scum in it, but having two all town neighborhoods is something I don't think exists in this game, not to mention I don't think got past normal review (they like saying things like "all town neighborhoods get townsided very quickly" etc etc). Setupwise 1 all town, 1 with mafia, 1 with sk is the kind of "elegant" thing that specifically-Wake as a mod would like to do. Whether that's true or not, don't think shadow is town.

My vote is on House because I feel like I don't like anything about his reads or play today. Particularly him attacking me and bringing me up as a lynch option. But with the neighborhood dilemma and shadow taking a very convenient position supporting the same thing as House against me I think I want to

VOTE: shadow

[Marquis]

also I forgot to say this but if you guys can't tell I'm trying really hard to play to wincon. it's really easy not to care about this game but I feel like I owe it to potential yelling people in a dead qt to not just say "fuck it" and let whoever the rest of this town is eat their humble pie with a psyche/me townflip.

[Marquis]

this is a normal
nor-mal
nor-mel
nor-large-theme
mmmmn

Show me where it explicitly states that an SK not coming back "guilty" in a guilty/not guilty report is considered not normal.

Marquis

- According to the wiki, SK can get investigation immunity - I'm guessing with guilty/innocent that would return an "innocent" result, not no result?

so gameplay and reinoe are conf everything town

Not necessarily, see above.

This stands out in ISO btw.

[Marquis]

All that being said, that leaves both Marquis and Psyche in my scum pile, and I'm willing to vote either.

I actually like my Marquis vote based on the post I made the other day. Does anyone else have any thoughts on that, btw?

this is also probably the strongest scumtell I know of
does anyone who cares (and actually knows) about mafia theory want to help put it in words for me

[Marquis]

yeah shadow is scum.

and I'm with reinoe on this. 7 players left and I'm not hammering obvtown.

[Marquis]

yeah these nightkill choices are really weird :/
mostly notsci and texcat.
i just want to die.

[Marquis]

put it on shadow.

[Marquis]

so here's what i'm thinking about the gamestate. we most likely have:

4 town / 2 mafia / 1 sk

and I think the town is

Marquis
reinoe
Psyche
Pine/House

with the remaining two,

Skybird
shaddowez

as PoE'd scum.

With PV's townflip, if shaddowez and I are both town, that means we started with 2 four-person all town neighborhoods, which once again I'm finding hard to believe the NRG would approve.

I just... don't see a reason why shaddow is getting by right now. Nobody seems to have a townread of any sort on him, yet they're content to ignore him and lynch out of other, more risky options.

Again... why? Why is everyone just ignoring the neighborhood deal now? Why is everyone ignoring the prospect of a shaddowez wagon (including shaddowez himself, as if he doesn't want to draw too much attention to it) when unlike with the rest of the players in this game it feels like literally nobody has a strong townread on him (pretty sure everyone else is being strongly townread by at least one person)?

[Marquis]

I don't understand why you have him as town.

I'm not trying to be a dick about your reads (though with your read earlier on me I do want to), I just legitimately do not understand. I don't see anything in his play that's distinctly town, and when combined with setup factors...

[Marquis]

The problem I have with your analysis is you were so sure PV was scum based on your neighborhood theory. PV flipped town. And you are also ignoring the fact that you are the last one in your neighborhood without someone flipping scum.

I was sure. I was wrong. However, in this situation regardless of what happened yesterday, I have a significantly higher chance to be right because I know it's either me or shaddowez; even taking into account the possibility of two town neighborhoods despite the unlikeliness of that setup being chosen/approved, PoE with much stronger townreads leads to scum!shaddowez.

And don't tell me I should consider the possibility of myself being scum.

I feel like you're just fearmongering about it again and softdefending shadow. ;/

[Marquis]

i think there is mafia left. that's the only way this setup makes sense

also, it's not me

also, yes, i realize i fucked up big time and should have realized psyche was scum after majiffy immediately knew it was fake. can we please not rub it in my face postgame (looking at u dead qt)

pine is town.
house is town.

that is what i (am pretty sure i) know.

VOTE: shadow

my incorrect read on psyche in no way affects my more-likely correct read on shadow.

[Marquis]

also if someone wants to mislynch me better do it quickly while my morale is still at an all-time low

[Marquis]

I don't particularly read sky as scum, I can't see Wake putting someone he feels necessary to protect so bad as to overstep his authority as mod to ask town to go easy on her into a scum slot.

THIS WAS MY ORIGINAL THOUGHT

[Marquis]

sorry.

[Marquis]

no wait, the daystart post is wrong. only 5 left

so that leaves them still by poe :/ what

[Marquis]

actually wake defending sk!skybird makes sense too.

[Marquis]

UNVOTE:

don't want a lynch will be reading through the kill targets tomorrow
t s o iso so far has yielded little for kill motive
as i said will read more later

[Marquis]

[Marquis]

The only thing I'm not totally sold on is shadow scum. He's

done*

a lit of scum hunting... unless you are saying he's sk, maybe?

I've also been re-reading, and while I'm not completely convinced that Psyche and Marquis are both town, I think I actually have a stronger scum read than either of them right now. I'm going to sheep reinoe for now, and will post reasons why shortly:

VOTE: Pine

"these are scumreads but i'll vote elsewhere"

All in all, there aren't many actual scummy sounding things, but there are enough things that are just off to make me think twice. Not to mention, even if Psyche and Marquis are both scum of some flavor, there's still a third one to find, and Pine is where I think it is right now.

"i have a lot of scumreads but i'll vote the third one instead of choosing between these two similar ones, one of which is my scumpartner"

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Psyche

Still thinking he's scum, and as the most likely lynch to occur I'll gladly jump back on the wagon.

slightly overexplained, easily seen as him justifying a bus

I still question Marquis' choice of fake-claiming mason and trying to ride it out until endgame, but his posts toDay have seemed town.

My feelings are still mostly similar to what I posted in 4857. I just have to figure out who between Skybird and Pine I feel is scummier and more likely to not be a mislynch.

"let me keep the lynch options wide open, let's say i have a lot of scumreads"

We have five people left, and two of them are claiming to have crumbed roles already. I'm having a hard time getting final reads right now, so I'm going to go with my gut at this point.

VOTE: Skybird

basically shaddowez has put himself in a position where he can justify voting practically anyone at any time. and no, it's not town indecision. it's scum survivalism and trying to blend in.

i'm really tired.

VOTE: shaddowez

i'm really tired and nothing else is happening.

[Marquis]

chaining yourself to a fake mason claim as sk is probably the stupidest thing you could do and believe it or not i'm not a bad scum player

[Marquis]

No, that's a fakeclaim you decided to only stick with and then crumb once you saw that people took reinoe's non-Normal role claim well. I don't believe that if you were a real bomb you wouldn't have crumbed earlier. And combined with looking through Alina's ISO for a crumb, which didn't occur, how I also noticed her suggesting repeatedly in multiple posts earlygame the idea that there's no SK... I don't have a townread on you anymore.

[Marquis]

I hope shaddowez doesn't flip town. That'd probably be the final nail in the coffin containing the part of me that can actually get a decent sense of reads in large games.

[Marquis]

I was hoping to have one more night of usefulness, but have it your way. We're too close to losing for me to keep my mouth shut anymore.

I am a bomb.

Also, this makes no sense and is not a town way to claim given that the lynch is already secured and we're all just waiting for Wake.

[Marquis]

hey there house. please read this.

if you're town you should unvote before skybird gets here because with how far we've come with those clutch psyche and shaddow lynches i would be really really pissed.

there's nothing i hate more than town sucking then doing really really well in the penultimate moments of the game only for someone to get trigger-happy or overconfident and lose in the last seconds.

because that means it was all wasted

all that extra time when if we were just going to lose to

this

why not give up earlier

you might think taking the risk to vote right out of the gate in 3p lylo is a Cool Kid thing to do because you're strong and independent and confident and all that.

well no.

if you're town, you're just going to get people to blacklist you.

"i don't care! i do what i want!"

check your privilege

to reappropriate a tumblr term, you don't own this game. there's me. there's wake. there's all the town screaming it up in the dead qt.

so please tuck your vote back into your pants and please wait until i am ready to continue with this day. i have important Real things to do for a day or two that actually affect my Real future. after that's done i want to be able to come into this lylo and try to figure out which of you made that kill

(i will admit i was leaning you as mafia with that kill because i had repeatedly stated that skybird was one of my PoE scumreads, and thinking you wanted to bait me into voting there. but idk anymore since apparently you want to vote first. which is freaking me out because there's a clash of motives there and it might point to you being town after all and etc etc please unvote)

if you're town, don't lose it for us now. please.

i'm trying to be nice here but you can probably tell that i'm feeling like i'm gonna burst.

also if you're scum you should also unvote because statistically leaving my voting options open between you and skybird is more beneficial to you. so there's that.

night.

~~~

skybird: mafia basics: if you are town and here and house is still voting me, please post something instantly so i know you're not scum quickhammering. thx. would make things easier

~~~

also ALSO house do not dare go the "you're talking like you know i'm town therefore u are scum" route in interpreting this post.

this is cold logic, and by far my highest priority right now is to assume you're town and convince you to unvote, or lose.

(if i was scum i wouldn't convince you to unvote because then whether i lose or not is still in my hands but blah blah we don't care about that right now. please unvote. cya)

[Marquis]

I'd rather let it gestate and see what it turns into.

Today's lynch needs to be in {Aero, Psyche, Tree}. Probably tomorrow's lynch, too.

[Marquis]

i'm not scum
everyone knows this
or should know it

i'll be back later

[Marquis]

i have a huge assignment due by midnight and while i'm mostly procrastinating right now i'm probably only going to be here again after that assuming i'm still awake. cya x2

[Marquis]

it was a java assignment.

i like python a lot better. fuck my syntax errors

also i'm exhausted and will drop in tomorrow night, with much less hw to do. sorry for the delays, and please believe me when i say it has nothing to do with my alignment. you could say i'm scum stalling. but lylo is stressful as town too and i simply don't have the time tonight anyway. later.

[Marquis]

I'm on my phone and browsing through Day 1. Expect something tonight, I think I'm pretty sure what's up

[Marquis]

Heading to dinner. Phoneposting for a bit. Activity low because work, short bursts for a while

[Marquis]

house that's not a valid reason to scumread me because what I did is pretty much what every. single. town. has to do effectively to avoid a quick wrong lylo loss. don't use one exception of it being done by scum as evidence otherwise

I'm not mafia because [insert all of Pine's case here]. go through that again, it's a good analysis of the gamestate

Majiffy wouldn't list only his scumbuddies as his 3 lynch options. Not to mention, as has been noted by pretty much everyone lately who's been nightkilled, Majiffy was listing Psyche and Aero as scumreads but only ever actually pushing me as a viable lynch. That's like the most basic visible scum-town interaction

lastly house you're so hung up on the mason claim but you keep ignoring how it's practically suicide for me to do as scum with an actual scumpartner, and as we've already made clear I'm not a bad scumplayer. how it went down with me claiming masons with psyche, psyche being silent and confused instead of corroborating it as he would if we were actually scumpartners, and majiffy basically going "THEY'RE LYING" indicates that the mason claim pair is town-scum. if we were both scum there's no way any scum would be the first to actively cast doubt about TWO of his scumpartners' claims; again, majiffy went after ME for that claim, and not psyche. it took him a while to realize that if he was going to go after me, he had to superficially add psyche on to his scumreads as well (but again never really pushed psyche strongly, only me, the actual mislynch)

as for who's actually scum here, I'm pretty sure it's Skybird.

before last night I was thinking it was her, because of the PoE thing and because house had read town to me more or less for a while, though i'll admit it's not that strong now and it wasn't that strong at the end of yesterday.

however, seeing the pine kill was surprising. i fully expected to be nightkilled myself, because people were suspecting pine and i had thought the majiffy/psyche/shaddow interactions made me obvtown. i initially thought then that house was scum trying to get me to vote skybird like i had said i probably would, but then he voted right away which freaked me out.

now i'm not too sure, but if i had to go one way it'd be voting skybird.

one of my biggest issues today with her is that she's being way too nice-sounding and doesn't sound like how i expect town to...tbc

[Marquis]

I agree with Marquis.

VOTE: shaddowez

this was more likely a scum end-day-now hammer than a town one- it's easy to cite another's case as either alignment, like i did with pine's case for me being town (and i'm town). but what she did here unlike me is providing no original thoughts about it of her own, and it's easy to hide everything behind a simple "i agree"

[Marquis]

Wake, you have vote count 7.1 copied in where VC 6.4 should be. Could you fix that please?

That's the big question.

When you look at the lynch VC's, there's at least one where Jiffy voted Marquis as a lone vote or with one other person. That's one thing I want to look at again.

skybird needs to come back to this and actually report on what she's apprently so concerned with. i don't see how this is relevant

Thanks Wake!

fluff

No worries marquis. We have time. What's your assignment in?

fluff

Seriously, it's OK. I don't want to rush through this last day only to screw it up.

fluff/appeasement

House, what are your thoughts?

this shouldn't be important to town in lylo. scum are more concerned about other players' thoughts, whereas town is more concerned about actually figuring out who is scum, as i've been doing and as house looks to have been doing

Thanks House.

Marquis, I'm waiting on anything else you have to say.

appeasement/fluff/posting for the sake of posting

House's unvote definitely feels town to me. He unvoted even before I got back to the thread after the day started. I also don't think scum would come in and throw down a vote right at the start of day. Scum would want to hold off until town voted for town.

Marquis pointing out that there could be a quick hammer seems town. But it could also have been scum trying to get out of being lynched.

like shaddowez, keeping all other players as lynch options at her fingertips depending on how the cards fall. except this time she's calling us both town, with me being very slightly less? i think?

I re-read Alina's ISO and I don't see scum there. I also checked wiki to see what it said about the bomb role as I've not seen that role yet. House's play and claim seem genuine to me.

not sure what to think of this. i don't really believe the bomb claim, which is what irks me about house. but other than that, i thought his play was more bad!town than scum. again, not sure how to interpret this regarding skybird.

Thanks for the link House.

I checked Marquis' activity and he hasn't posted since the 20th. Come back and play Marquis so we can finish this game one way or the other.

maybe it's just me but the multitude of "thanks" and other overly patient-sounding statements are screaming scum to me. it's like, i can't feel any genuine sense of urgency from you at all regarding the fact that we're in lylo and could lose with a wrong vote. it's not that i have a problem with your attitude toward mafia in general, but i do have a problem with how if you're town and since you actually have more consistent activity, you should be focusing more on scumhunting than doing the same thing as shaddowez did- asking questions with limited analysis followup, being passive in a high-risk scenario, etc. :/ the thing that gives me pause from voting you besides house's claim, is that i'm not sure if i'm horribly wrong and this is just how you play in general. if you could give me a link to a completed game of yours, that'd really help.

[Marquis]

The last time I jumped to conclusions and quick-voted ended terribly for town and wound up alienating somebody that could have been interesting to pay games with in the future, and I don't want to repeat that mistake if at all possible.

when you say things like this what i'm trying to figure out is if that had enough of an impact on you to stop doing that and you're actually scum here for how this day started out, or if you're town who can't learn a lesson/still overconfident. i'm trying to figure it out. i'm having a hard time with it.

[Marquis]

okay.

[Marquis]

idk if i believe that, but there's got to be a vote sooner or later.

and with how i'm seeing skybird right now, it's probably going to be for her. i don't think i'll really be able to see the gamestate another way no matter what she says, pre-emptive "sorry" to this whole town if i'm wrong...

[Marquis]

VOTE: skybird

[Marquis]

UNVOTE:

[Marquis]

.-.

[Marquis]

not hammering

[Marquis]

oh my god i'm exhausted

[Marquis]

not going to be able to convince you another time

i mean your arguments for me being scum are pretty much acknowledging that game theory and play make me town BUT you're paranoid of how good i am (???) so i COULD be scum

really hope you're not just townreading skybird due to "effort" i mean if she's scum and wants the win of course she'll work hard to try to get a vote on one of us

i guess i'm just waiting to see if i'm wrong about my reads. another blow to my scumhunting but if that's the case at least there's still a chance to win

skybird when you get here post to let me know if i should bother trying to prove to you that house is scum. if not and you're scum just end this and hammer.

[Marquis]

do you understand how lylo works? did you learn that

because if skybird is scum, she's going to hammer so trying to figure out what proves you're scum is pointless: 1) you're actually town 2) game would be over anyway

if skybird is town and assuming she plays to wincon and doesn't hammer, only then would proving you're scum actually be potentially fruitful with the actual chance for town to still win

bear in mind i have no fucking idea right now who's actually scum. believe it or not after pv and psyche flips i'm not terribly confident in my remaining reads especially in a 3p lylo

[Marquis]

fun fact there's an issue with my head right now in that while i logically know the chances of you unvoting me are slim to none i still have that emotional urge to assume you're town fucking this up and do my best to keep trying to convince you you're wrong

i told myself, i wouldn't allow myself to become overly invested in how a long game ends
how do i stop

[Marquis]

According to YOUR game theory, you are town.

it's not my theory, it's basic theory obtained from playing games for a long time and observing how the concepts of fear and risk statistically play out between town and scum

i can see how you would be skeptical though seeing as how you guys don't have that experience. in hindsight i probably should have approached today differently in order to help whichever one of you is town understand what's going on, though if pine was alive... :/

[Marquis]

you are all of a sudden accusing me of being scum.

If you beloved she was scum like you were pushing, you wouldn't be trying to get me lynched now.

please take a moment to actually try and listen what i am explaining to you. (i'm taking the time to do this because this is for skybird too, so it's not completely wasted)

i know i am town.

house is voting me in 3p lylo. it is virtually guaranteed that house will not unvote at this point.

if house is town, skybird is scum, and skybird will hammer me. the game will end. there is no point in making any case on anyone.

if skybird is town, house is scum, and the game continues with skybird hopefully trying to keep an open mind and figure out who is scum. to help i will need to start proving why house is scum.

out of both possible scenarios in this situation, the only productive course of action is to prepare to show that house is scum. assuming any other player is scum is a waste of time by now, because in that situation the game is over anyway.

do you understand?

[Marquis]

All you want to do is save your own skin.

yes i think i have said that many times

i mean if i die we lose

and we've come so far

so yeah

manipulative!-marquis!-experienced!-scum! theory time: do you (skybird or house, i don't fucking care anymore) really think i would be as open about trying to survive as i have been this day, if i were actually scum?

[Marquis]

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[Marquis]

re: your unvote

????? trying not to look the gift horse in the mouth but also i kind of just want to get it over with and figure out is skybird is going to hammer or not

re: your question

there's a greater sense of urgency generated from a lylo vote. i'm in a state of limbo atm between not caring about mafia in general at the moment and not wanting to take most of the blame for a likely a town loss

[Marquis]

you know what? i'm done and it's time to put myself first for once. this game is killing me and if we're going to lose this it'll be on my terms.

thanks for unvoting, i still think skybird is scum, but now it's viable to see where this goes

VOTE: skybird

hammer if you will.

[Marquis]

sorry guys.

i actually thought initially that house killing pine made sense to get me to vote incorrectly. but then he voted me right away so i (wrongly) discarded the notion

[Marquis]

yeah I've come to learn that survivalism isn't indicative of alignment, how the player presents it is

I shouldn't be continuing to talk theory though when I messed up lylo though. I should give players less leeway in the future and not just hand out townreads if players say uninformed-sounding things.

pedit speaking of offsite experience it was really frustrating that it was refused :/ just curious as to why

[Marquis]

@skybird: i asked if you could provide me with an example of your play from an offsite game since you guys were talking about it so much but you said you didn't want to

also should have stuck with my original interpretation of wake's post but i guess i had too much faith that he wouldn't really do something with such an obvious conclusion as that.his post practically confirmed you as town but i guess i thought "nah wake would never interfere to make it that easy"

[Marquis]

my fake claim wasn't something usually done but fake mason claim have been done before, usually by town to bait nightkills and redirect attention away from a townread, and most prominently used by neighbors. it's even more rarely if ever done by scum due to the risk it poses, not to mention that if psyche and i were scum, we'd have to coordinate this without daytalk or both agree to it on an earlier night so essentially i'd have been springing it on him. i should have realized as i said before that i couldn't treat this lylo like others due to experience- a lot of the things i was saying were things i was used to saying in past games with different playerlists.

[Marquis]

Skybird was Town because two mafiascum in the same neighborhood is unbalanced

I FORGOT ABOUT THIS.
ugh. i'm not pleased with myself.

[Marquis]

like, after shaddow flipped it's like i erased the neighborhoods from my thoughts. oh my god.

[Marquis]

I reasoned with myself "well wiki says two max non strictly normal roles and it sounds like a wake thing to do to push the limits also so many protective roles to maybe protect the bomb accidentally??"
sorry guys I really dropped the ball here with confbias and forgetting hoods and trust me you could not be more disappointed in me than I am in me right now

[Marquis]

like in hindsight I was doing the thing where I create dumb reasons to justify dumb actions due to pre-existing readsbias :/

[Marquis]

part of it is a "do you know marquis" thing

[Marquis]

part of my issue is that i have an abnormally high tolerance for "town stupidity"
i see that now
sigh

pedit @ pv: i think this was more of an emotional fail than a logical fail on my part- i noted earlier that the evidence was pointing toward psyche-scum ("if we weren't masons i'd think he's scum" etc etc). it was like... until psyche actually flipped scum, i didn't want to believe it. i didn't want to believe that i could fuck up the core of my townbloc that badly.

[Marquis]

i keep beating myself up over this. there was the bomb claim, the neighborhoods, the case from pine, the pine kill, the opportunity to just crossvote house...

it's not even that mafia was in a good place, we just lost because i was too stubborn to let go of a pre-existing PoE read when it had already been proven that my reads this game were shit and to go with cold logic instead

[Marquis]

ughh

[Marquis]

not helping

[Marquis]

a lot of your read/case progressions made no sense and i thought it was because you were town

[Marquis]

pls don't solve problems by adding more problems

[Marquis]

also i do not think it will be feasible at all for you to run a game of the size you say you are planning for.

you are far from the ceph-level kind of rep you will need to get that off the ground.

[Marquis]

wake i think you're out of line and i think you need to learn to take constructive criticism better.

we're not saying this to be mean. what i'm saying is that you need to realize that even if you design a grand game, no matter how excited you are about it, without well-known experience and time spent building a good reputation here is it likely not feasible for a game of yours with 30+ players to 1) fill and run 2) continue running

[Marquis]

i think your still missing what im saying.......

[Marquis]

mods don't make games happen. players make games happen. i hope you will acknowledge that i am and have been trying to help you here. good night.