Scumleague Fantasy Football 2014 (Voodoo Dynasty)

[Rob14]

/in

[Rob14]

I'd recommend randomizing divisions to make it fair, but I specifically would argue against Former L2/L3 Champs being a division. That pits all the people who've won lower leagues (and therefore are likely above average) together in one division. It would make a "Division of Death" imo, and I'm tired of having Groups of Death after the World Cup.

[Rob14]

zoraster, obviously you rigged gravity so I'd get a pick in the middle.

>:(

[Rob14]

I was trying to think up a cool team name, but all my thoughts were stupid. So I just went full stupid and chose Rob's Game Theory.

[Rob14]

So, here's my team this week:

INJURY REPORT: ROB EDITION

Eric Decker (WR3) - Hamstring: Questionable; possibly 1-3 weeks out or lower activity
Cecil Shorts III (WR4) - Hamstring: Questionable; maybe a return this week, but not certain by any means
Vernon Davis (TE1) - High-ankle sprain (unverified): If true, Out; 4 weeks

And worst of all....

Mark Ingram (RB3) - Broken hand: Out; "at least" 1 month

This might look deceptively not awful, considering only my WR3/4 were taken out, Mark Ingram is only the RB3, and a TE is fairly replaceable, but:

My RB2 is Toby Gerhart. Mark Ingram was going to save me from that awful pick by swapping the two. I have no realistic RB4 on my team at all. This basically means that Gerhart is in my starting lineup unless I can grab something on waivers...

I can't release WRs to pick up RBs on waivers (at least not as many as I would want to) due to injury concerns with my WR3/4. This compounds the "Fuck Toby Gerhart" situation.

I feel like I need a solid 2-3 more bench spots to stash these good players away...

Meanwhile, if anyone cares to buy low on Toby Gerhart in League 1, shoot me a PM. He's still a starter, and he's still going to get touches.

[Rob14]

You're in League 1, right PokerFace? If so, PM me about the possibility of a trade that involves a WR. I could part with any one of Percy Harvin, Cecil Shorts III, or Eric Decker for a quality RB, easily. And I'll even throw in Toby Gerhart if you'd like the joy of releasing him into free agents because he's fucking useless.

[Rob14]

bah; someone trade me a RB for a WR in L1. kthxbye

[Rob14]

Brandon Pierce for Decker or Shorts? PM me.

[Rob14]

Bernard?

Yup autocorrect

[Rob14]

Shorts is trending towards Probable, imo. Week 4 at the latest. The more important thing for Shorts is that Hurns just went down with an ankle injury; if Shorts plays in Week 3, he'll be really the only decent WR target.

[Rob14]

Yahoo's Advice section is calling Shorts a low-end WR5 if he starts. Hurns is pretty much out for sure. I think whoever wrote that is on drugs.

[Rob14]

No, the 5 is meant to be there, I believe. They often put WR4 or RB3 even though no league will start that many; it's meant to indicate how far away from "starting" status the player is.

[Rob14]

So mith, how's L2 treating you?

[Rob14]

Giovani Bernard, Demaryius Thomas, Percy Harvin. Out, out, out. Rip week 4.

[Rob14]

My team outperformed in a somewhat ridiculous way on my crazy BYE week, to the point where it looks like I'll be winning comfortably unless Phillip Rivers has the best game of his career and then some.

Among the unexpected stat lines are:

Deandre Hopkins (WR): 5-64-1
He's proving to be a solid WR2 so far this season, which is odd - I hadn't expected him to ever be "startable". Seems like I got him cheap in the draft. I expect his amount of TDs won't be sustained through the whole season, but still, his floor seems to be 6 points.

Mike Evans (WR) - 4-65-1
Finally, his first good game, and it coincides with the only week I expected to ever start him. This stat line is especially impressive when considering that he was forced out of the game with a groin injury in the third quarter, although that bit isn't as promising for his future performance. I'm expecting him to be out at least a week.

Trent Richardson (RB) - 20-47-1 with four catches for 52 yards
Well, the <2.5 YPC is actually completely expected at this point, but finding the endzone, getting that many carries in the first place, and his increasing role in the passing game despite how great Ahmad Bradshaw has been all point towards Richardson being an integral part of the Colts offense whether or not he deserves to be. The coaching staff on the Colts appear to be forcing a round peg into a square hole at this point, but as long as the fantasy points keep coming at a decent RB2/3 pace, I'm happy with it.

[Rob14]

In other news - I'm looking for someone to talk trades with in L1. I want a reliable and upper-end RB2, and I'm willing to pay a decent chunk to get one. The only players I'm considering "off limits" for potential trades are Matthew Stafford and Giovani Bernard. All others are fair game for offers.

In particular, I'd like to trade Vernon Davis (top-end TE1) because I have Delanie Walker on my team, who's irreplaceable in the Titans offense at this point. No sense having two elite TE1's on the same fantasy team.

[Rob14]

Also, I think I've hated every WR I've ever had in Fantasy football.

OMG, so much this.

Also, I hate Trent Richardson. I've had him in at least one fantasy team each year since his rookie season. I don't know why; he's useless. At least I didn't use a draft pick on him this year. Just got him off waivers.

[Rob14]

Vote: 3 WRs

I've played both, and I've found that in a 2 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR format, decent/good WRs are as valuable as decent/good RBs. In a 2RB, 1 TE, 2 WR, 1 FLEX format, RBs become absurdly valuable and WRs are almost an afterthought.

[Rob14]

add in PPR (points per reception) and now TEs and WRs are back on the same level as the RBs

I disagree. I think it just changes the distribution of certain RBs. RBs like Giovani Bernard and Reggie Bush become ridiculous RB1's, and WR's are still behind them. It might make the average WR the same as the average RB, but the best RB's (which will now be the ones that catch passes as well) are still wayyyyy better than the best WRs.

[Rob14]

no. that would mess with the league promotion/relegation system that i think is valuable.

Also, so much this.

I'd rather have all flex than some flex and some 3WR. But all 3WR is best.

[Rob14]

As an addition to that very helpful League 1 report, KMD actually plays me in Week 14. This is likely a must-win game for both of us, especially if I lose this week.

[Rob14]

How many teams get relegated, by the way?

[Rob14]

I'm developing a list of my most hated players of week 13 for fantasy.

Week 13:
1. Trent Richardson - the reasons are obvious. he's not even starting for me, but he still tops the list.
2. Drew Brees - stop stealing all the goalline TDs! 3 yards out on 1st down goes to the running back!
3. Josh Gordon - your stoner ass should have been suspended for the whole year
4. Josh McCown - stop being so useless. if you're going to continue to be useless, please at least be useless in the direction of who is clearly your best WR - Mike Evans.
5. Everyone on the Minnesota defense - how have you blocked two kicks for TDs. you're not even a good defensive unit.

[Rob14]

Where do the four go to? All L2 and then 4 L2 players go to L3, I imagine?

[Rob14]

Reminder, this is the promotion/relegation schematic...

L1 #1-8

L2 #1-3
L3 #1

L2 #4

L1 #9

L3 #2

L2 #5

L1 #10

L2 #6

L3 #3

L2 #7

L1 #11

L3 #4

L3 #5

L1 #12

L3 #6

L2 #8

L3 #7
L3 #8

L2 #9

L2 #10

L3 #9
L3 #10
L3 #11
L3 #12

It will be a little different this year because L2 is at 12, but not wildly so.

Found it.

[Rob14]

The obvious thing, imo, with no particular ordering.

L1 #1-8
L2 #1-3
L3 #1

L1 #9-11
L2 #4-9
L3 #2-4

L1 #12
L2 #10-12
L3 #5-12

The main difference is that it's symmetrical. In L1, the bottom four are relegated, with the person finishing last bumping all the way down to L3. In L3, conversely, the top four are promoted, with the person finishing first bumping all the way up to L1. In L2, the top three are promoted and the bottom three relegated. This is mathematically pleasing to me, but it also has practical advantages in that it's easiest to understand and doesn't require a large number of players from L2 to be relegated (which WOULD be required if we promoted someone from L3 to L1 without demoting someone from L1 to L3).

But what do I know.

Also, is there a possibility of an L4 next year? I feel like we could definitely fill an L4 if we adopted 10-10-10-10 instead of 12-12-12, and I tend to prefer 10 team leagues to 12 team leagues.

[Rob14]

Yeah, I'm just throwing it out there if he hasn't thought about it. The promotion/relegation system doesn't affect me at all, so I don't particularly care either way.

I'm not a fan of divisions, personally. It adds a little bit of excitement, but it's also not terribly fair that KMD, one of the stronger players in L1, only has a slight chance at a wild card spot because he's in the strongest division.

[Rob14]

I hope Lamora manages to avoid relegation. I both like his updates and really think that he did a good job in improving his team throughout the season.

I've now clinched my playoff spot in L1, as has hasdgfas and Tally, barring anything going really oddly in their games.

Nero's loss knocks him out of the hunt for a wild card slot.

The game between zoraster and D3 for Week 13 is still too close to call. I'd give D3 the edge at the moment. If zoraster loses this game, he's out of the hunt for a wild card as well.

The remaining two that are very much in the wild card hunt are KMD and IS, notably both from Scum East. IS has the slot unless he loses and KMD wins.

[Rob14]

What on earth? Can someone post T-Bone's team? How do you even reach that total?

O.o

[Rob14]

Wow, and his optimal point total is at least 15 points higher because he has Kenny Stills on his bench. Damn.

Re promotion/relegation: Fair enough, mith. I have no strong opinions on the matter, really.

Also, I had an idea regarding fantasy that I'm curious to see if there's interest for. This is not a suggestion for the official MS league - if there were interest for this, it would be separate.

It's fairly easy to coast through fantasy looking at projections and not having any real knowledge of player ability or the circumstances within the NFL that might contribute to their success/failure. You can always just google "who should i start in fantasy" and you'll find plenty of tables of players from experts happy to make the choice for you. I think that this makes fantasy a lot less skill-based than it otherwise could be. The only way I can see to change this would be to alter the scoring within a fantasy league enough to where projections become less relevant to actual value. Imagine a league where QBs scored 1pt per 50 yards of passing and RBs scored only 1pt for a touchdown, for instance (just a random example). Even changing those two things alone would make projections useless and make your skill at evaluating players and drafting much more important. If you don't recognize that WRs are suddenly the most valuable position in that league and draft accordingly (i.e. not rely on Yahoo projections), you're going to get demolished.

Would anyone be interested in playing in a 10 or 12 person league with those types of rule modifications? Not necessarily the ones listed above, specifically, but modifications to make projections and draft rankings mean less. I think the idea is appealing, but I wonder whether players would grow bored of it throughout a 16-week season.

[Rob14]

I'm pretty sure I picked up then dropped Tre Mason a while back. Really regretting that now. He would have been very helpful in the playoffs.

[Rob14]

Yahoo has two rules that they follow hard-and-fast, as far as I can tell, when it comes to eligibility.

1) A player will become eligible for a position in Yahoo leagues if and only if they're listed on the official team depth chart for that position. This caused some wackiness when Denard Robinson switched over to RB duties but hadn't yet been updated on the depth chart - if I remember correctly, he only had WR eligibility for around two weeks when he was playing as a RB.

2) Once a player has obtained eligibility for a position in Yahoo leagues, that eligibility remains for the entire season. This caused different types of wackiness when Denard Robinson was putting up low-end RB1 numbers with consistency but could be picked up off waivers and plugged into a slot formerly held by a WR3.

[Rob14]

Considering how shallow the TE position is, it's virtually identical to 3 WR except that it forces you to waste a roster spot on a back-up TE, because you won't be able to find anything decent on waivers if your actual TE is hurt.

[Rob14]

Personally, I like kickers because everyone overlooks them and I wind up with one of the top 3 players within the position. But that's mostly selfish.

[Rob14]

That 26 point difference can actually have decent playoff implications in the hunt for a wild card, depending on how close it is. You can get better results if you properly stream kickers, although I don't really have the time or desire to do that normally - I'd much rather use waiver position for defenses and offensive players.The "trick" to picking a kicker, in my opinion, is to pick a kicker with a few specific attributes.

1) His team trusts him - they'll let him take 50+ yarders if given the chance. This also means he's consistent in that he pretty much always makes <45 yarders and has a good shot at 50+ yards.
2) In general, for choosing a season-long kicker, you want a team with a mediocre offense. An offense that won't be kept to <100 yards of offense in a half, but also has a good chance of not finishing drives all the way.
3) When streaming kickers, you want to find a team whose offense is roughly as skilled as the defense they're playing. Choosing an offense much better than the defense means you'll be left with only extra points, but choosing an offense much worse than the defense means they'll likely not get in field goal range often, if at all. (This is why you want a mediocre offense above - it will fit this bill most often).

I've never sat down and actually determined if this is mathematically better, but it tends to produce good results.

[Rob14]

I'm annoyed that I'm in the hardest division. Remove divisions entirely and I'd have already more-or-less clinched based off of points for.

[Rob14]

Save me, Kerwynn Williams! I need a boom out of this boom-or-bust. I easily can see Williams with a 15 point game, but I can just as easily see him with a 2 point game. Bah.

[Rob14]

Ok Yahoo fantasy projections say Manziel should outscore Stafford. I'd like to revisit my earlier argument that Yahoo's projections are the worst fantasy projections and state this as further evidence

I agree, absolutely. They rely way too much on past results as an indication of future success. Stafford did poorly the first half of the season with a hardish schedule, so he MUST do poorly against an easy schedule the rest of the way. Giovani Bernard has been awful lately and is clearly at the bottom of a two-man committee, but he did really great earlier in the season and was projected as an RB1, so he MUST get to at least 7-8 points.

Wrong and wrong.

[Rob14]

I think they actually got Kerwynn Williams right for their projections. 7pts was a fair projection. He basically hit the projection - he ended with 8.60. Which is a fair result, and one that keeps me in the running. I would have liked to see a Rams TD, though - the total from the Arizona defense isn't awful for me, but it doesn't help.

[Rob14]

Worst case scenario, you give the other team the ball on their 1 yard line and have a very realistic chance at a safety. Not a bad deal, with huge potential upside.

[Rob14]

I feel like my whole team took the last two weeks off. ;(

Next year, I need to pursue a wildly different draft strategy. I think I have it worked out more-or-less when I want to take which positions, but I'm not really going to elaborate. The one thing that I'll mention that I think is obvious is that this year's WR class just made the WR position significantly deeper, so drafting WRs as highly as I did this year would be hard to continue to justify.