Newbie 1572 - Chicken Parmigiana Mafia (Over)

[davesaz]

Howdy All. It's 1AM here and it will take some time to read. My best guess is that I'll be able to get something substantial posted in 12 hours or so.

[davesaz]

IC comments

Since I'm taking over an IC slot, I wear two hats. One for the alignment/role I have in the game, and the other to provide helpful commentary on the state of the game. This is my first time taking the IC role, so I'll be feeling my way though to the best way to handle it. Keep in mind that IC comments are not necessarily indicative of alignment.

When replacing into a game in an advanced state, there are several ways to approach it. One way is to skim through the game making notes of interesting posts, and post a running summary of what you see. Another way is to look at just the last few pages to get reads on the other players' most recent activities. Another way is to open "ISO" views on players to look at their whole history. Some people replace in very quickly, others take their time to get caught up. The delay (or lack) is usually not alignment indicative by itself.

On the game state: A D1 no-lynch typically benefits scum. Vote count analysis might reveal some possible scum suspects. Since Newbie games are played with a semi-open setup involving random roles, the no-kills may be the result of town roles interfering with the night kills. It is also possible for scum to intentionally no-kill, to try to give town power roles false results that they will reveal prematurely or use to mislynch.

[davesaz]

Starting with the D1 VCA. Others may have done this already but I prefer to do it myself when I replace in, vs trying to look it up and check it for accuracy.

Vote Count 1.12

fjkldsjh (4)- Debonair Danny DiPietro, Pramitz, Diego1487, zombiekitty

[L-1]

Diego1487 (2)-

Bitmap

,

Drixx

Pramitz (1)-

fjkldsjh

Debonair Danny DiPietro (1)-

ika

Not voting:

numberQ

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Ika was town. There were 4 players with the opportunity to hammer (numberQ, fkjldsjh, Bitmap, Drixx). By itself it doesn't mean much, just one clue of many possible. And I didn't review posting around the time of deadline to see who might have been unavailable at that time.

As for on the wagon, in my experience I'd be really surprised to find both scum on a D1 wagon at deadline. One scum is certainly possible though. I can rule out myself, but any of the others could fit that clue. I do think we're looking for either one on and one off, or both off.

[davesaz]

I'm not looking for PR's to claim. Don't do it. If you have crumbed a result, I'll probably find it on my own.

When I did a read through of D3, I did get some ideas on scum but there isn't much time to get it right. I don't want to incite a mislynch by jumping to conclusions. Can't promise to nail 'em but I want to do my best.

[davesaz]

What are we looking at here? Ika was town. Yeah. I imagine it can't be hard to go back and find something that ika or his slot did that was townie after the fact here. I don't know what you're trying to say with that.

You're right, I messed up and left something out of the explanation. Here is an expanded version. Sorry, sometimes I think but don't type. Added material in italics.

No-lynch is good for scum. So I'm analyzing the vote to see who had the opportunity to force the no-lynch (more correctly, who had the opportunity to prevent it and didn't take it). The people shown in different colors (blue or purple) are the ones who were not on the wagon.

Ika

(in blue)

was town

(so we can ignore him)

. There were 4

(unknown alignment in purple)

players with the opportunity to hammer (numberQ, fkjldsjh, Bitmap, Drixx). By itself it doesn't mean much, just one clue of many possible. And I didn't review posting around the time of deadline to see who might have been unavailable at that time.

I would look at these 4 as possible scum.

As for on the wagon, in my experience I'd be really surprised to find both scum on a D1 wagon at deadline. One scum is certainly possible though. I can rule out myself, but any of the others could fit that clue. I do think we're looking for either one on and one off, or both off.

Consequently the probability of scum being in the 4 mentioned above is higher than being in the people on the wagon, based on the D1 VCA alone. This is not enough to lynch on.

[davesaz]

I'm working on it, posting notes as I go.

[davesaz]

There is more. Have spent about the last 4 hours driving my wife around town. I clearly said it is a starting point. Patience please.

[davesaz]

3 hours... Now eating...

[davesaz]

Why the fuck is it Day 3 with only one person dead?

Anyway, I'll read this tomorrow or at the very worst this weekend. I'll get to it soon is what I'm saying.

Well I'm about halfway in and I'm pretty sure I know who the scum are already. I'll finish reading just to make sure I'm not wrong.

Just pointing out that I wouldn't be the first replacement who took a day or two to get caught up.

[davesaz]

BRantz catches up in 311 with a pretty complete set of reads. So far so good... Post 319 looks a little like some very careful role fishing. Nothing really blatant, but tossing out additional role possibilities to see if anyone responds.

In 386 he questions Diego's reads, but doesn't really say why he's pointing them out. Then in 391 goes on to vote.

Day 3, picks up where he left off voting Diego in 464. Then he goes through a couple of rapid switches, in 487 to Jelly and 528 to NumberQ. I read this as scum looking for a plausible wagon. In 542 he's implying that Ika should have been easy to see as town -- perhaps he left the ika wagon to set up this moment.

Finally in 551 he replies to Seraphim's "you're acting like scum caught for wrong reasons" with a "you don't know how to read me".

1. Jumping to Diego after implying something scummy about Diego's reads, but without ever really saying what.

2. During day 3, has been bouncing around looking for an acceptable wagon.

3. Some possible role fishing

4. Seraphim doesn't know how to read him, but I do and this doesn't seem very similar to Town Brantz from our previous games together.

Furthermore his slot is the D1 no-lynch target, which ties back pretty well. When I looked at the "letters" time period for that slot it looked pretty scummy too.

VOTE: BRantz

[davesaz]

Strong town: Seraphim, Drixx
Weak town: Diego, Jelly
Null / Weak Scum: zombieKitty, numberQ
Scum: BRantz

[davesaz]

Also, wasn't the only game we were in together one where I was scum? Or were you in my first newbie on site too?

I was thinking about the Newbie that I replaced into. Forgot you were also in the M9++ as scum.

[davesaz]

Hey, I'm just replacing in here and pressing the best case I can see.

[davesaz]

Curious to know though, what's the case on my slot?

[davesaz]

So point by point.

1. My read on Diego was a lot more than just he had a slightly scummy reads list. Here is the whole thing which dave seemed to "overlook":

Diego: Null-scum. 62 hits hard in a good way. 125 seems decent as well. I don't understand his confusion about bitmap feeling Pramitz was being appeasy with saying "Am I scum?" vs him saying no. Though he seems to be confused as to what bitmap was responding too in the first place in 109 and 132. Still a weird thing to harp on. 133 is good. and 135 is awesome. His reads list in 147 is somewhat suspect. Don't like his seeming insistence that lurking is a scum only thing, nor his argument about fluff posting. 199 is awful. Also very weird that bitmap goes from a strong townread, to a scum read without being mentioned at all in between, but bitmap had voted Diego in the interim, and his post change reasons are bad. I don't like the buddying in 236 much either. His train of thought starting with the "These are the lynchable people today" statement is completely awful, and ends with him saying that the town should lynch a town read of his. 287 feels like posturing to me.

But what changed between this post and 386/391 when you actually voted him? That's the point I was trying to make.

2. So me voting 3 different people over the course of two weeks is "jumping around"? Diego became fairly obviously not scum today, so while reevaluating I put my vote on Jelly because I had a gut bad feeling about him. As soon as I saw something outright scummy from a player I changed my vote to numQ. Your whole point against me is conjecture anyway.

Let's dig into this further. Are you saying that you thought numQ is outright scummy and Jelly is also giving off bad vibes. Is there any followup to those votes? I'm missing the push to a lynch which town should be generating. Is there something out there that I'm not seeing?

[davesaz]

First, it's a gut meta tell for me. I've played with DDD before, usually he is WAY more aggressive and pushes shit hard.

Here, he seems to be coasting and is not really interested in finding scum. Not only is it uncharacteristic of his town game, I find it to be very untownlike behavior.

It's not a super strong case by golly but my gut feels this lynch very strongly.

I've been there too. Sometimes my gut is right and occasionally it's wrong. Not much I can do about DDD's tenure. All I can do right now is work for town and see if that's enough to turn this around.

Can we talk about your other scum reads?

[davesaz]

When did Davesaz last post in this game? When did Davesaz last post?

My strongest scum read is who I'm voting, haven't seen anything that would change that.

[davesaz]

When did Davesaz last post in this game? When did Davesaz last post?

My strongest scum read is who I'm voting, haven't seen anything that would change that.

Any response to Seraphim's argument against you? We have intent to hammer on Brantz, and I will view you as HELLA scummy if you don't address his case before the day ends.

I actually did reply, maybe you missed it? But I'm willing to repeat. (If I missed something and you're talking about something else I'd be happy to reply to it)

As far as I can tell, Seraphim's argument against my slot is meta against DDD coupled with DDD's passivity. It's pretty hard to actively defend against that kind of case. The only thing I could do was analyze the game and give my own reads.

The scummy things I found in BRantz's play aren't just meta and passive play. It's not an especially strong case, but it's certainly more concrete. Yes, I know BRantz claimed VT -- but scum would do that anyway.

[davesaz]

That typically requires a back and forth -- he says what his case is, I reply to it, he pushes against my reply etc.
I guess I could have counter attacked with a "if this case is so great why aren't you pushing it more".
I'm actually happy you're talking about it, because it was driving me nuts to have so many votes but no action.

[davesaz]

Hmm, have to think about that. With this flip i think i have a bead on scum but im phone posting and wont be at a browser for about 5-6 hours.

[davesaz]

Thanks Drixx, I was going to post that MYLO/LYLO explanation but my phone was not cooperating.
Another hour or so of driving related to my daughter's birthday, then I'll be able to dive in.

[davesaz]

OK I'm back, starting in on a reread with Diego as JK in mind.

Remember that JK is both a block and a protect, so the target is not necessarily scum. Scum could have figured out his role if he had a sudden and largely unexplained read change on one of their kill targets, in which case good scum play would be to keep it quiet and target him for a subsequent kill.

[davesaz]

This is interesting.

I've felt suspicious of you and Bitmap from the beginning.

Not you individually

, but y'alls interaction between each other bothered me.

1.If bitmap isn't scum, is DDD still scum in your opinion, or if DDD isn't scum is bitmap still scum?

My scum reads for all three: DDD, Bitmap/Seraphim, and BRantz,

are all individually separate

.

lol

VOTE: Diego

I apologize. I didn't explain my position well enough. I wasn't suspicious of DDD individually at first. That's clear by town reading him day one. However I was suspicious of his interaction with bitmap on day one. After night two, I then changed my read of DDD to scum. That read is stands on its own from bitmap.

UNVOTE:

Diego's response to my vote felt town.

At first glance this looks like a vote, a simple explanation, and an acceptance of the explanation. But what about the explanation is new? Diego had said all along that the DDD / Bitmap interaction made them both look scummy. And he said previously that the reads were separate.

Now that we know Diego was a JK, the

after night two

stands out. It now looks like this was a result, but we can also tell from his later actions that Diego didn't know if this was a block result or a protect result. What we do know is that it looks like NumberQ bought the result immediately, with no further discussion. How would he know that's a result? If he's scum and it's a protect result, he'd know for sure. As scum the play is to hope that others think it's a block result, but not let on that he knows it's a result -- because only scum would actually know that.

VOTE: NumberQ

[davesaz]

PEdit: uhh... what? I "bought the result immediately"? Even if I was scum, how would I have known Diego was the jailkeeper and that was hinting at a result?

I think the question is more along the lines of how would you know if you weren't scum. He essentially repeated the same thing in different words. The only really significant difference that I see in his post is "after night 2". If someone reverses position and says that someone's town after a post like that, especially

immediately

after, it means they think it's a night action result.

[davesaz]

Ok. After reading and rereading what Dave said, I

think

I finally understand.

It's worded oddly and I'm having trouble putting it into words but here we go:

Number votes Diego.
Diego responds by saying "after night 2" his reads changed. He pegged DDD as scum. This either means that DDD was scum or was targeted(all hypothetical right now).
Number immediately drops the vote.

Dave is arguing that Number dropped the conversation because Number saw "after night 2". This implies a PR role. Since Diego could claim and then not get lynched, Number moved on to someone else. Diego pegged DDD for scum. And since Number moved on, Dave is implying that DDD was town and Number had targeted DDD during the night.

Dave, correct me if I'm wrong at all, but that's what I managed to get out of it?

Yes, that's what I'm saying. NumberQ seems to accept the "after night 2" with no questioning or further followup, which says to me that he somehow knew that something was up. Ergo scum, since only scum could know that without a need for followup.

I agree with Drixx that yesterday's hammer seemed a little fishy too. Scum who know who a PR is might not want to allow extra time for a last minute claim.

I'm probably going to mangle this, but here's my attempt at the theory. It's clearer in math terms...
Lynch vs. no lynch is a tough one. If we think we've found scum, then I think lynching is better. If we're really unsure then the odds are a little better with no-lynch.

A mislynch loses unless the NK fails
A correct lynch yields 3 town vs 1 scum with a kill, and 4 town vs 1 scum with no kill. Definitely better but risky.
A no lynch yields 3 town 2 scum with a kill, and 4 vs 2 with no kill (same as current).

[davesaz]

I thought NubmerQ was scummy yesterday too. That deserves to be re-stated to make it clearer.

[davesaz]

numberQ: Had him as weak scum yesterday. I really think the little back and forth with Diego that I pointed out means that he recognized Diego as JK and that scum would know that where town wouldn't. Scum can easily manufacture the so-called townslip. I have a scum read on him, but it's only a medium.

Drixx: Very town, strong drive to figure things out.

snscompt1: I thought that zombiekitty looked scummy for the previous hammer, but the ensuing discussion downgraded it to derpy. I thought snscompt1's entry was OK, and today's approach to analyzing whether the better move is to lynch or no-lynch is fairly townie. Weak town.

ForWhomTheJellyRolls: I'm not seeing the kind of push that is needed from town in this position. It makes me think that he's waiting to see which way the wind blows so he can go along. That's a scum tactic, so I have a weak scum on him.

Seraphim: I wasn't a big fan of his reading DDD on activity meta. But I think his reads on other slots are relatively town motivated. Very weak town. Definitely a position that scum could fake fairly convincingly, but I have enough scum reads.

[davesaz]

You said without references to old posts. Were you looking for quotes and stuff? I interpreted the request as quick off the top of your head. There is time to do more if you want to clarify.

[davesaz]

@Seraphim: I don't really see how you can take "finding actual scum tells" and turn that into "passive". The change in NumberQ upon seeing "after last night" from Diego just wasn't a town reaction. He clearly got Digeo's crumb and didn't do anything with it. That's a scum reaction, not town. Scum want to bury it, while town want to dig for the underlying meaning. The so-called "town tells" you're referring to came

after

I pointed out the early D3 interaction with Diego. Granted, town

might

act that way, but caught scum would definitely make those posts to look town. All but the worst scum are inherently hard to catch -- if they weren't then town would win all the time. You need to give the mistakes more weight than town-like behavior or you'll never catch them. This is the closest thing we're going to get to a smoking gun, in the absence of a PR result.

[davesaz]

Man, too quiet. I think NumberQ's partner is remaining silent to try to avoid notice. We need to apply pressure or scum will have us in the same place tomorrow with it being lylo instead of mylo. The only thing that could stop that would be a bulletproof.

[davesaz]

numberQ - Actively and consistently engaged for the entire game since replacing in. Rails against inactivity and slow pace. Either is town or doing a fantastic job pretending to be. Dave had a point about the response to Diego's "After last night" thing; however, that seems like hindsight bias at best,

since none of the rest of us seem to have caught it until after the fact

. Null leaning slight scum because there's something that feels like a performance about numberQ's play. Given the odd pacing of this game, I feel like what I'm seeing from numberQ's ISO it calculated to stand out as town looking, but I feel like a real active and aggressive townie would have stood out even more in this particular game. It's an odd argument and more gut than rational, which is why I don't have numberQ as outright scum.

The bold+underline part makes my point about numberQ. He's the only one who caught that crumb the first time around. It took knowing Diego was a JK for me to even catch it on the 2nd time, and everyone else missed it as far as I can tell. This screams inside knowledge to me. Scum, who know a kill failed, are looking for abrupt read changes on their target. Those read changes, in particular town or null to scum, identify the JK in this setup. If it were a sudden switch from scum to town then the scum are going to think the PR is a doc. And if no reads change from anyone then they'll identify the failed kill as a BP. Furthermore, if scum are the only ones to identify the crumb, they clam up about it so the PR can be eliminated with as little fuss as possible.

All post-flip analysis is hindsight, so it's understandable that you're skeptical. We're looking for the proverbial needle in the haystack, because there isn't very much overtly scummy posting in this game. At most we have a bunch of vacuum and aside from my case on NumberQ we're trying to figure out whose vacuum is the scummiest.

It isn't really possible to defend against charges of previous passivity. All I can really say is I admit that I was reactive in the face of almost getting lynched yesterday, and point out that I'm one of the more active today. Especially given my best case is based on specific posting activity.

[davesaz]

Are you trying to say my post doesn't seem urgent? Eager doesn't make a lot of sense there...

No, I'm not really worried yet. All of you are scum reading me but it's all based on this weird active/passive thing. Which is false, I'm not passive here, so I really don't get it. I think my logical case against actual scum NumberQ should carry the day, provided I can make you understand the evidence.

[davesaz]

Alternatively, let's say I instantly understood from Diego's post that he was the jailkeeper. Why would I then out him, as you're suggesting I should have done as town? If I suspected him of having a power role, I'd want to keep that quiet.

I didn't say outing him would be the town play, that would just be crazy. But you didn't ask him for followup, or push the conclusion like I'd expect town to do. Quiet is one thing, totally quiet is very different.

[davesaz]

Why preclude the possibility that another player saw my exchange with Diego and came to the conclusion you're so eager to thrust on me?

You're the one who reacted to what Diego said.

[davesaz]

Aha, so it's Seraphim. I wasn't sure between him and Jelly.

[davesaz]

I'm bulletproof.

Was waiting to see if Seraphim would commit to the vote. He started pushing my slot in earnest after the no-kill and it intensified the longer I stayed alive. After NumberQ figured out Diego's JK role, they took him out and Seraphim ramped up the scum read on me to try to get me lynched.

Quotes upcoming, wanted to get this out there before someone hammers.

[davesaz]

Well that's just great. It didn't seem like you'd believe me when I said my mislynch was going to let scum win, so a fake claim was my best shot to avoid it. I even let it go L-1 to make the fake claim seem more real. There was a 50% chance of the game not having a BP, and I wanted to catch scum saying "that's a fake claim because there isn't any BP", since they'd be the only ones who could know that.

I knew the other 50% chance was that there would be a BP (who might or might not counter) and I'd probably get burned if they did counter. But that 50% seemed a better risk than the nearly 100% chance of a mislynch and immediate loss.

[davesaz]

Scum would wait it out and hope for a miracle. I'm town and throwing myself on the mercy of the court in hopes we can keep the game going.

[davesaz]

No, I'm saying scum wouldn't admit to it.

[davesaz]

Big time kudos to my partner for one of the best executed bus plays I've ever seen! I almost messed up by not fighting snscompt1 hard enough. If town had noticed that I didn't berate him over the scumread it might have been a tipping point.

My BP claim wasn't planned ahead of time. His crumb was there and he planned to claim it the next day to get conftown status, but I decided to try the claim on the spur of the moment to try to mislynch NumberQ and win a day earlier. I'd be interested in knowing whether anyone actually bought it before the counter claim. Countering was risky, town could have said "wait why would you claim when you know there is a counter". I should have played up the angle of outing the last PR so we'd know who not to kill.

IC note

: The no lynch is good for scum in most MYLO situations. Scum will kill the person who is most townread, and it increases the chance of a mislynch in LYLO. The odds are better for town to try to lynch the scummiest person, unless the scum reads are evenly divided. The exception is when there is a high probability that there is an unknown PR outstanding, in which case town can still win even after a mislynch as long as the PR survives.

[davesaz]

Seraphim, that was a good use of meta. You had DDD pegged and sticking to it was almost enough to pull things out.

The lower activity was bad at the end. Town really had the upper hand before the replacements, I thought I'd go down right away. My delay in building a case on BRantz was due to having a hard time finding anything decent to use. I wanted to come in with a townie looking case and the pickings were really slim.