Micro 449: One Night Ultimate Werewolf (Game Over!)

ActionDan · Post Post #15 (isolation #0) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:20 am

I'm not sure of optimal strategy. Maybe hypoclaiming what we'd as seer/robber/troublemaker

ActionDan · Post Post #17 (isolation #1) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:26 am

For example

As seer I looked at Ikas card and saw it was village aligned
As robber i stole Not_Mafias card to make sure he lived up to his name
As troublemaker I swapped Ika and Not_Mafia

ActionDan · Post Post #24 (isolation #2) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:41 am

Sure eventually but i think 2 rounds of claiming is good so it's a lot harder to tailor a claim when there are hypoclaims While hypoclaiming locks in a PR result should a werewolf or minion choose to claim it (i.e by looking at an unused card or minion trying to jester it up)

ActionDan · Post Post #29 (isolation #3) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:47 am

Worst popcorn choices NA

ActionDan · Post Post #35 (isolation #4) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:51 am

In post 28, Not_Mafia wrote:Seer

popcorn sns

In post 30, snscompt1 wrote:Seer

popcorn

ika

Fun times ahead

ActionDan · Post Post #39 (isolation #5) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:58 am

Mass claim fucked that plan up a bit

ActionDan · Post Post #46 (isolation #6) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:36 am

No we do this the right way or the terrorists win

ActionDan · Post Post #60 (isolation #7) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 8:13 pm

hunter

Seer's claim in some way I guess

ActionDan · Post Post #63 (isolation #8) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:57 pm

I suppose I believe that claim and, it being likely that you didn't see two villager cards, will admit that I lied about my own claim taking advantage of the last position in the mass claim process. I am the robber. I'd hazard a guess based on probability that one and only one villager is a werewolf. I happen to have a villager result (clearly not on Not_Mafia as hypo'd) on 1/3 claims

ActionDan · Post Post #64 (isolation #9) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:59 pm

I would have liked to have kept quiet until troublemaker could claim but unfortunately that's impossible

ActionDan · Post Post #79 (isolation #10) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:12 am

I'll point out that had i swapped with a minion I'd have claimed robber immediately but then lie about my target so as not to alert the swapee. My target was ika who is a villager and why i put in the part about him being town as i hypo claimed were i the seer

ActionDan · Post Post #80 (isolation #11) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:17 am

Last to claim is trouble maker now. the cards in the middle are likely to be werewolf hunter (this one definitely) and villager (tjis one definitely)

Are seers told precisely which card is which if they select 2?

ActionDan · Post Post #81 (isolation #12) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:21 am

In post 75, Not_Mafia wrote:I mean if he stole the minion card why would he hypoclaim truthfully

I would not indeed. But obviously one of you two are the minion and I hypod that i robbed you lol. So you know. If your the minion which i think you are, I would never have hypod that

ActionDan · Post Post #84 (isolation #13) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:51 am

In post 82, vettrock wrote:I swaped ActionDan and ika. So if ActionDan is telling the truth about robbing ika, they are back to their original cards.

You should have lied lol and said you swapped the two seers lol

ActionDan · Post Post #86 (isolation #14) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:56 am

fuzzy or vonflare being a werewolf is what this comes down to

pedit ya.

ActionDan · Post Post #87 (isolation #15) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:59 am

I lean voting fuzzy but its not set in stone

ActionDan · Post Post #91 (isolation #16) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:52 am

Bluffs are things but id feel better if people checked in first i guess

ActionDan · Post Post #93 (isolation #17) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:09 am

not mafia claimed to see a werewolf/villager while sns claimed to see hunter/villager.

Either way there's definitely a villager who is scum. It's possible that one of the seers is a werewolf and not the minion but that seems like a risk a werewolf would not take

ActionDan · Post Post #103 (isolation #18) » Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:03 am

Vonflare really should post though at the least

ActionDan · Post Post #107 (isolation #19) » Sat Feb 28, 2015 5:30 pm

In post 106, snscompt1 wrote:Given Not Mafia is scum, he started off the popcorn by letting Vonflare go first.

Opposite order but the logic holds still.

I'm like 100% convinced Fuzzy is scum from that last post.

The real question is if it's so bad of a post that he's the minion attempting to seal the deal.

That frightens me

ActionDan · Post Post #112 (isolation #20) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:08 am

VOTE: Nightfall

I'm down to vote fuzzy at this point and hope for the best

ActionDan · Post Post #127 (isolation #21) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:54 am

In post 125, vettrock wrote:If fuzzy is were werewolf, I guess that mean one of them is trying to divert attention away from him by pointing at him?

Yes.

Also fuzzy is kinda obvious in being scum via his posts. But I would like to sort who's voting who because... we actually need a majority

ActionDan · Post Post #128 (isolation #22) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:56 am

I suppose we could try tying it up somehow

ActionDan · Post Post #129 (isolation #23) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:57 am

though that will never work

ActionDan · Post Post #140 (isolation #24) » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:55 am

basically we can afford one naysayer. So I guess vonflare wants to be the one.

ActionDan · Post Post #144 (isolation #25) » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:43 am

In post 143, snscompt1 wrote:It's vote Fuzzy.

ActionDan · Post Post #152 (isolation #26) » Wed Mar 04, 2015 5:11 am

In post 145, vonflare wrote:NM is warewolf, FUZ is town

NM is minion, FUZ is town

NM is obviously the better option, becuase NM is confscum, fuzzy is probscum.

hi allow me to strike the FUZ is town options off your list as both seers saw a villager card and if you think at least one of the seers is town, then it follows a villager claim is lying. good day!

ActionDan · Post Post #160 (isolation #27) » Thu Mar 05, 2015 7:22 am

ActionDan · Post Post #214 (isolation #28) » Sat Mar 07, 2015 9:13 am

To basically nullify all of these alternative theories:
Firstly dual scum seer claims are highly improbable and I contend would only happen in the event there is one minion one werewolf and that werewolf saw the seer card in the middle. In this case vettrock ika I and everyone else is town.

Now, assuming the much more logical proposition that one of the seers is scum and one is town we have the following:
1 claimed villager is scum, 1 claimed seer is scum. It is therefore impossible that both me and vettrock started as scum. If vettrock is scum that means both me and ika are town and somehow vettrock made a lucky guess to claim trouble maker. If I started as scum and ika was town, I would have revealed that by now. If I started as town robber and I robbed from scum ika, I would have revealed that by now. If I was town robber and robbed from scum anyone else I would have revealed that by now had I reason to think ika started as town.

Thus we are left with one and only one maybe plausible scenario different from the common concenus: Me an Ika both started off as scum. Which isn't correct. But that's the only one to consider other than the obvious one

ActionDan · Post Post #220 (isolation #29) » Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:28 am

I fakeclaimed because I could. One reason was to see if any of the seers said anything and another was to wait for trouble maker to claim targets to decide whether to out my own result or not

ActionDan · Post Post #221 (isolation #30) » Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:31 am

In post 219, Titus wrote:That's blantantly false as you were forced to claim before Vettock did.

Obviously in case I lied.

ActionDan · Post Post #230 (isolation #31) » Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:31 am

So are you going to vote nightfall or do you have more of the game to "crack" open

ActionDan · Post Post #248 (isolation #32) » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:20 am

^
Probably in future runs nightfall should be lije a 5/7 majority or something

ActionDan · Post Post #255 (isolation #33) » Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:07 am

In post 254, Not_Mafia wrote:Everyone knows Titus is minion at this point so can we end this please

lol. the fake slip

ActionDan · Post Post #259 (isolation #34) » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:37 pm

Well gun to head, who is/are his partner/partners titus?

ActionDan · Post Post #261 (isolation #35) » Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:15 am

Well that's impossible

ActionDan · Post Post #270 (isolation #36) » Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:28 am

I think she misinterpreted my post to ask who my partners would be were I scum. Even though I thought it was clearly referring to NM. Of course her supposition still doesn't work because if I stole a scum villager card I'd have no reason to think Vettrock wasn't the troublemaker and I'd claim who it was

ActionDan · Post Post #272 (isolation #37) » Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:33 am

I meant, stealing a scum card from one of the current villager claims

ActionDan · Post Post #286 (isolation #38) » Wed Mar 11, 2015 1:19 pm

In post 278, vonflare wrote:What color was that bear?

White

ActionDan · Post Post #299 (isolation #39) » Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:18 pm

To reiterate, that team is only possible if I'm a robber who stole a scum card from one of the claimed villagers. In which case I would have no reason not to believe vettrock to be a town troublemaker that swapped me with ika, and it would have been disclosed by me

ActionDan · Post Post #312 (isolation #40) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 4:59 am

It's a good short and sweet game. Lots of fun variations which my instincts tell me will be mostly town sided. The deadline could be cut in half most certainly if the votes required to move to night aren't reduced, as the game is designed imo to be fast paced with massclaiming being necessary. I might even want to mod one of these sometime.