Drawn on Arrival: The Movie: The Game (GAME OVER!)

[Bookitty]

Mastin is a self-watcher.
Bus driver switches her and Aeronaut.
She self-watches on behalf of Aeronaut and sees that Aristophanes visits him.
Someone tries to kill Mastin.
Aeronaut gets killed.

Bus Driver flips the effects of targeted actions.

Mastin's targeted action was on herself. That action was retargeted to Aeronaut. She said so.
Mastin targets Mastin. Aeronaut is the new target.
~Someone~ targets Mastin for death.
Aeronaut is the new target.

IF Aeronaut didn't target you (and yeah, I'm not sure, but someone did) then someone targeted Mastin. It's 50-50 to me and I'm sure Aeronaut didn't target Mastin even though the results are the same.

I don't know that I buy Reina's theory. But the bus driver thing was perplexing me.

Anyway, the net result I came away with is that Mastin was really accurate and that could have made her a target Night One. It's worth keeping in mind even if Aeronaut did suicide on the PGO.

[Heartless]

role madness means that people probably aren't going to get killed JUST for their roles

***clarifying on this b/c i kind of misstated it***

given the lack of town information roles that have already flipped, it makes sense that "some sort of modified doc" isn't really a priority kill.

[Heartless]

Anyway, the net result I came away with is that Mastin was really accurate and that could have made her a target Night One.

DSIUREOAPWI8FJHUSA;FUPIAS8EH8APFHALKJDSKAHFAISEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE



accurate in what way?

[Bookitty]

do you think bro is scum?

I'm in wait-and-see mode. I'm tremendously reluctant to lynch a claimed power role when I think it's possible scum left him alive JUST to provoke this response. Like I said, I don't think he should get to LYLO but I'm okay with letting it alone for now. If he's truthful, then he likely won't make it to LYLO anyway.

[Bookitty]

Please read my Post 2759 for specifics.

[Heartless]

MASTIN. WASN'T. THE. SCUM. KILL. WE. KNOW. THIS. FROM. SHAFT'S. FLIP.

WHAT. IS. YOUR. POINT?

K;LJFDOIIII8JFEPAJIEW8F932U29U32IJ132O31

[Heartless]

Please read my Post 2759 for specifics.

you're pointing to mastin being right about shaft and ika which is great and all, but shaft's flip+mollie's suicide+the clause about "replace the factional kill" in shaft's role pm says that mafia didn't try to kill mastin.

soooooooo... do you think mastin had a 2nd SK nailed...?

[Bookitty]

I was looking for help in figuring out where the kills were coming from.

I don't have an agenda. I was trying to discuss something I think is probably important. If there's another SK out there it's probably better we know that. I know for sure there's an extra kill.

We have someone at L-1. We're going to night pretty soon, I suspect. Why are you so apparently upset that I'm talking about this, please? I don't get why it's agitating you.

[Heartless]

help me...

[Bookitty]

I don't know, Heartless. All I can do is look at the facts we know and try to organise them into something that might be helpful later on.

Do you think it's bad for town to consider various possibilities regarding the kills? If you think it's pointless, please just say so.

[Honey bee]

At this point we probably can't speculate too much about the kills with the info on the table. heart's right tho about how if anyone targeted mastin for a kill, mastin would have watched them hit aero.

If anything, the most strange kill is ari. I guess I could see it as a second scum kill if they have one (due to his insistance on flub being scum). IDK tho, he wasn't exactly a strong voice day 2.

What were you wondering about when you unvoted heart?

[Heartless]

I don't know, Heartless. All I can do is look at the facts we know and try to organise them into something that might be helpful later on.

hello brick wall.
my name's antihero
what's yours...?

[Heartless]

i'm not trying to be a douche, but i am one so that's how it comes out

i'm trying to get to the end of the train of thought because i feel like i hop on and then i'm left stranded out the middle of fucking nowhere AND I WANT TO SEE THE END

[Heartless]

What were you wondering about when you unvoted heart?

even if vonflare is scum, there's probably at least one more

wading through lower profile like marquis, hostile, peregrine

[Bookitty]

@Heartless: I don't know the end yet.

I think there is another SK out there. I don't have the first idea of how to hunt them right now, though.

Without more flips, there isn't any way to narrow it down further. I think I have narrowed it down as far as I can in terms of what we should be looking for.

Like I said, I'm looking for help in figuring it out. If you think it's too early, that's cool. But at least the facts in what approaches some kind of order are out there now.

I freely admit I'm not the world's greatest scumhunter. The best I can usually do is to present known facts logically and try to work from there. My gutreads usually suck. But in this large game with the current participation level, basically anything that can motivate town to try to work things out and stay engaged is a good thing to me. If people think my theories suck, I'm eager to hear their countertheories. But having no theories out there at all seems a lot worse to me.

[Marquis]

Please read my Post 2759 for specifics.

you're pointing to mastin being right about shaft and ika which is great and all, but shaft's flip+mollie's suicide+the clause about "replace the factional kill" in shaft's role pm says that mafia didn't try to kill mastin.

soooooooo... do you think mastin had a 2nd SK nailed...?

actually

i think this means + that thing someone was talking about earlier about omitted flip information + cheetory's something "redacted on death" = multiple mafia factions with the text specifying which team redacted on scum death

[Marquis]

What were you wondering about when you unvoted heart?

even if vonflare is scum, there's probably at least one more

wading through lower profile like marquis, hostile, peregrine

oh ok so it's my fault everyone's been ignoring me

thanks

a lot

[Bookitty]

I think it's really clear if Vonflare flips scum (as I expect) then you were one of the prime motivators for that lynch, Marquis.

I wouldn't even have looked at him if not for you.

[4nxi3ty]

so been looking through Shaft and noticed a habit of placing people in groups of two. Could just be red herrings but it makes me wonder about Gil and Seraph.

Also not jumping on

ika

or amateur atm.

I also didn't factor

Brian

& Seraph

Currently Gil &

Cheetory

.

@

Cheet

&

Flubb

I wanna beileve the sera, bro, and estival wagons were all distractions from the shaft lynch but sera's last two posts are giving me an on edge vibe.

Eventually, Heartless' neg-utility can bite us in the ass, so he needs to die in a few days. Preferably with an extra day to revisit Seraphim if necessary.

Why does heartless need to die for the neg-utility, or even playwise what do you think about them?
Why do you want to revisit Seraphim?

[Boonskiies]

VOTE: bookitty

Sheep me.

[Heartless]

I freely admit I'm not the world's greatest scumhunter. The best I can usually do is to present known facts logically and try to work from there. My gutreads usually suck. But in this large game with the current participation level, basically anything that can motivate town to try to work things out and stay engaged is a good thing to me. If people think my theories suck, I'm eager to hear their countertheories. But having no theories out there at all seems a lot worse to me.

hey
no negging on yourself

my theory:
>aero's kill went to us b/c tth was up his ass
>scum kill went to mollie
>bulge vig kill

thinking on it...
it's weird that aris died. mastin's result yesterday + the public theory about the kill implied aris was the vig. that's why mastin was quick to put a sock in it. scum would've already known the theory was topsy turvy anyway though because we weren't the scum kill; that's what the pubic theory hinged on.

there's several options:
an idiot with a vig shot / a second sk / some kind of pgo / something else

it's hard to pin down

[Marquis]

didn't mastin self-watch aristo to aero

which means bus drove mastin + aero and someone tried to kill mastin not aero

[Heartless]

/jumps out window

[Marquis]

so this proves multiple mafia teams right because of a poison and another kill

[Bookitty]

I think with a couple more flips it ought to make more sense.

I'm still not buying multiball though because the off-kill doesn't look like scum-kill to me. Well, maybe another SK, but not two groupscum multiball. The Critic verified that all three of the groupscum flipped were on the same team (I can find that if you need it, but I'm certain it's there). That seems REALLY unlikely if there were two groups of scum. Statistically improbable.

Still it can't be entirely dismissed if we don't keep hitting scum.

@Marquis: It doesn't prove that, because Heartless's theory also works:

No one targeted Mastin except Aristophanes's bus driver power.
Aeronaut was targeting Heartless anyway from inattention or belief that he was immune (Reina's theory).
Aeronaut killed himself.

The other theory is possible but it isn't the most elegant or likely barring a second known SK. There's an unexplained kill last night, but that's a separate issue.