Mini 1665: Papers, Please Mafia (Game Over)

[hitogoroshi]

Vote: Kop

[hitogoroshi]

I wonder if Equi does VC ghosts.

Unvote

Vote: Dinare

Because that looks like an infinitive ending, but dinar isn't a verb at all. Pretty suspicious.

[hitogoroshi]

VOTE: peacebringer

hito's two different votes in two different posts makes me wonder, but what do you mean by VC ghosts?

A VC ghost is when your VC's include a record of where a vote WAS, not just where it IS circa the latest VCs.

Most mods don't do it. I like them because if a player votes multiple times between VCs, the intermediate votes are lost to the voting record without ghosts, whereas with ghosts an ISO of the mod identifies every vote that's been cast. I don't like that my decision to do a VC or wait a bit could potentially mean a vote being part of the history or not - while obviously I try not to bias my modding, who the hell knows what happens subconsciously?

It's not like it makes me super sad to not have ghosts, just idle curiosity.

[hitogoroshi]

I was wondering, but have you changed your playstyle recently? Do you not random vote anymore?

have you played with PB before? Are you an alt?

[hitogoroshi]

I was wondering, but have you changed your playstyle recently? Do you not random vote anymore?

have you played with PB before? Are you an alt?

Know of him. I am an alt, yes.

Any particular reason you didn't disclose that in your first post? I know I assumed you were a newbie until you brought up past play of an '04 player.

I was expecting a lot more dynamic of a first few hours when I saw how fast everyone confirmed. Sad times.

[hitogoroshi]

that otolia post is kinda gross. no random vote or nuthin. Like he's already scared there's content he's gotta fake so he gives what essentially feels like a prod dodge post in a game where nothing's happened.

Unvote, Vote: Otolia

[hitogoroshi]

that reaction was even worse than the first post.

[hitogoroshi]

Seems like a lot of extrapolation to me.

Of course it is.

that otolia post is kinda gross. no random vote or nuthin. Like he's already scared there's content he's gotta fake so he gives what essentially feels like a prod dodge post in a game where nothing's happened.

Unvote, Vote: Otolia

VOTE: hitogoroshi

Seems like a lot of extrapolation to me.

I actually agree with this. I don't really find contentless posts scummy in early game especially if it's RL related, however, if he doesn't produce content after the time he said he would then I find it suspicious.

There's also a few players who have posted "content"-less posts, but haven't prod-dodged and Hito didn't jump on them.

Why not vote me, then?

[hitogoroshi]

that doesn't read like an abbreviated "I'm behind, but I'll catch up soon" post to you? I've read a million of those on ms and his post seems to have that same DNA. which is what weirds me out because it's super inappropriate here.

but hey, if you don't subscribe to that line of thought, we can always talk about his reaction where he didn't random vote OR vote me

[hitogoroshi]

Surely my reaction to a vote would be more telling than my reaction to a post.

[hitogoroshi]

You supposed I wasn't following the game ... with is false. I just didn't post yet. I was on a different laptop yesterday.

What? I'm not saying you "weren't following the game", I'm saying your strange belief there's a game to follow is spooky. And your continued lack of vote causes me physical pain.

--

1. What are your thoughts on meta and how effective is it in scum hunting?

Useful in small doses, overhyped. Scum like to use it to backpedal off of unpopular opinions so I come down a bit hard on people requesting meta.

2. What is the main tool you rely on for scum hunting (VCA, interaction or behavioral analysis, whim, etc)?

Accountability. Town want to be held accountable to their actions; scum, their words. I used to have a decent set of "scum tells" but I've boiled it down to the tiny handful that actually work. They all tend to involve accountability in one way or another.

3. Favorite TV show of all time

Man, I am not a TV dude at all. HunterxHunter or QI, maybe?

4. The sneakiest thing you did as scum and the stupidest thing you did as town?

I am notoriously transparent so hard to think of sneaky scum things. I guess it's funny that I'm actually a bit better fooling people in private convos than the thread, see Court of the Gods and the early days of Always On (I got caught later because I am hito and I get caught as scum, but I fooled people early in private convos!). Stupidest thing as town, maybe vigging Klazam in Strategy Mafia? He was pretty obvtown but then did something hugely scum favored mechanically, and I was obsessed with the idea he was scum getting the advantage instead of town playing poorly. I got a lot of shit for that one. In fact yeah, my biggest town blind spot is easily "If they are scum they CANNOT get away with this" leading me to mislynch more than my fair share of players doing silly things instead of reading them out. El G in SAIII was another example.

[hitogoroshi]

You know, if you just wanted me to vote, you just had to ask nicely. VOTE: hitogoroshi

(it's really bad that I have to ask you to vote!)

Otolia is really going all out here for The Full Scummy

Interesting opinion. Do you have any reasoning to back it up, or is it just another miracle hunch that makes early game so pointless ?

What do you think gets the game out of "early game", Otalia? You don't seem interested in voting, don't seem interested in playing along with RQS, don't seem interested in responding to posts not about yourself. It's very reactive.

Yes, of course we spitball crazy theories and play around with hunches. There's nothing else to do. Your dismissive attitude to it comes off as "Come back when the game has progressed enough you have a 'real case'" on me; but your total refusal to try to advance gamestate yourself is enough of a case for me!

Why would you expect Wrong Song to reveal they were an alt right away? Is that normal for alts?

Don't know about normal. Just seemed like something worth pursuing.

[hitogoroshi]

Reck, if Otolia is lynched and flips scum, who's your best guess for buddy? I have one but I want to hear yours first.

[hitogoroshi]

@hito : So you think one cannot advance the state of the game by playing the prey rather than the hunter ? I am not refusing to advance the game-state (you'd be hard pressed to find proofs that I deliberately prevented the game from following its course) and I particularly dislike the way you present your actions to be the righteous truth.

What on earth does "playing the prey" even mean? Do you earnestly believe you're contributing anything to the game by not voting or engaging with anyone who doesn't engage with you?

Also, my actions are absolutely the righteous truth because if everyone does what I'm doing we get a mafia game and if everyone does what you're doing we have a middle school prom where everyone is awkwardly huddled with their vote and no one's on the dance floor. Your actions this game has been "Only vote when told to, only engage with people who talk about me" - imagine an entire town doing that and you'll see pretty quickly why I am just righteous as heck.

Also why RECK ? Are you scum together ?

How would you characterize the votes on you? Which ones are scum motivated and which ones aren't?

[hitogoroshi]

I don't want to quote it because it's a big blocky post, but I don't like Ot's 103. He's just sniping down every vote on him without really going in to alignment:

Now you have to make the decision if I'm more useless to town than these 3 or not. I'm not going to be brazen but I think I did more than at least one of them. It's too easy to pile up on the guy that is voluntarily dismissive and provocative ... which makes Quilford even townies in my eyes.

I'm not judging on who's more or less useful, I'm trying to find scum. Otalia is totally focused on justifiability (i.e, "This is why your case on me should not apply") and didn't answer the question about alignment.

I want to like Dinare's Otalia vote but this sentence seems really off to me:

Actually, even though I'm rather apprehensive about putting somebody at L-2 a mere 3 days into the game, Quilford has been stonewalling me, but.... I currently don't think he's scum, I think it's just that I don't like his play style....

Cheetory is probably town.

Peacebringer's votes are weird but I see UT is already on it.

Cheetory6 has done nothing, his three posts were votes for different users, with very little input.

Your vote FOR Cheetory was a vote with no input. What is Cheetory not doing you suppose you are? What makes it more likely that Cheetory has a scum role PM than, say, GiF?

Otalia is probably still scum but I want to see what his posts look like as we keep on truckin'.

Unvote, Vote: Kop

[hitogoroshi]

How can Otolia's last post be so gross and yet PeaceBringer acknowledging how gross that post is be even grosser

truly, this is a miracle of modern science

[hitogoroshi]

Also PB, I unvoted Otalia so you'd only be making him L-2. Feel free.

[hitogoroshi]

Also PB, I unvoted Otalia so you'd only be making him L-2. Feel free.

so you think Kop is still more compelling than this juicy juicy oto/PB ballet?

Kop was never more compelling than Oto, and this Oto/PB thing is super interesting. But I got it moving already and I want to see if I can get Kop going as well. I think I'm getting a better perspective as an off-wagoner anyway. Otolia thinks I'm town, knows that I think he's likely scum, and that I could hop back on his wagon any time...being able to interpret his posts with that lens is going to get me to the truth sooner than anything, I think.

I'm still very wary of your interaction with RECK but I'm not sure either him or you are ballsy enough to do that in play sight - especially since it's a theme game with potential day-talk.

hito & I are bros outside the game

that may be why he's trying to pick my brain. that's what i just assumed was happening

Not quite. Just getting weird vibes on you sheeping me, wanted to see your independent thoughts on Otolia, figured that'd be a good question to do it. Also at that point I was getting a feeling that UT was Otolia's scumbuddy because he was nominally calling out Otolia for being scum while voting Quilford, but his initial push on Quilford was for being too quick to back down on pressuring me, which didn't seem to cohere. And I figured if you caught that as well it'd really be a solid direction to follow. But UT's actions since have been a lot more self-consistent and I think he's probably town now, so whatever.

[hitogoroshi]

So you were willing to take Oto to L-1, and you have no idea why the hell I'd unvote Otolia, but you're going for an alignment-null policy reason to vote Otolia? That's interesting.

And UT isn't misrepping, he was referring to MY vote on Kop.

[hitogoroshi]

I don't like the manipulative I won't f-ing claim on day one bullshit. Everyone gets run up day one soon or later. Folks playing that game is just BS manipulative crap. It is antitown and antigame and it pisses me off. The game is all about running someone up, getting a claim and evaluate. All anyone has on day one is will speculation... to claim otherwise is bullshit. And I hate refusals to claim and will not budge if someone is pulling that shit.

Why do you care if a scum player refuses to claim?

[hitogoroshi]

Why is scum being manipulative antithetical to how the game is played?

[hitogoroshi]

Why is scum being manipulative antithetical to how the game is played?

so you know oto for fact is scum...
I don't
he is a player in the game. His behaviors was suspiscious so run up.
Refusal to claim goes against the very heart of the game...
it is basically and F-U to the rest of the players.

No, I don't know Otolia is scum.

I do know that you were willing to put him at L-1 and that you were shocked I unvoted him. So you should think the chance of his being town is pretty low. Given that, your anger at something that's only against the game if he's town seems exaggerated.

[hitogoroshi]

The difference is I have only voted for 2 people. And contributed a little bit more than cheetorys 3 posts, 2 of which only contain votes if I remember correctly. But we have seen a lot more from him now and I am happy.

I don't like the fact that we have someone potentially near lynch but refuses to claim, how does that help us make a decision? I mean I'd rather him claim something than potentially lynch a PR.

UNVOTE:

This is a very bad post.

I really like the elegance of "PB is assuming Otolia is town to a too-large degree given his suspicion; his push shows he is scum who knows Otolia is town" but I dunno, the weird intensity of his crusade makes me think null tell. Which is a shame because it'd be so cool if it was right. (But even as I type that I think - having scum reads TRUMPED by policy does make more sense if your scum read was a lie but your policy crusade is real. Hmm.)

elusive I played along with the RQS because it's cute I guess, but surely you have a better scum read than "PB doesn't like RQS,

and he was sassy about it :O :O :O

" on page 9.

Also, what's the deal with this:

Why the fuck is someone near lynch again? Like didn't this game just start?

If we ban getting people near lynch in the early game, the whole game is essentially just a protracted hug fest until we do, y'know? If PB was L-2 right now, would you have voted him?

[hitogoroshi]

@elusive

: English isn't my first language. It shouldn't create any major issue but colloquial discourse or figure of speech may escape me.

This isn't really game relevant but my favorite brand of English as a secondary language is French as first language. One of my favorite musicians is French and came up with the lovely phrase "these days I feel like I've lost any time notion". It's a cool rhythm.

vote: Otolia

Otolia, any response to 126? Also, do you have any links to completed games where you've said you won't claim on D1?

This is a bad post.

Otolia, what did you mean by this:

all 3 of them have the same criticism, but it's the "WHY IS EVERYONE SO PRO-ACTIVE ?!" That really irked me.

Specifically, it seems like you were actually saying the opposite that people were inactive in the posts you made so was this some sort of typo or?

He was pointing out that he felt my arguments on him were hypocritical since they could also be made to some degree on the people on his wagon. It was a pretty scummy reaction!

Kop, numbers confuse me on a regular basis so you're right about L0 being the actual hammer. Its still scary and I wouldn't put a player at L1 unless I read them as scummy. I don't really like running up players to claim for the sake of it because I've played with that player who will hammer regardless if its the most anti-town thing to do as part of their shtick. What is your read on Otolio? Do you think a claim from him will be useful at this point? If he claims VT, then what? Do you move onto someone else or popcorn or what?

Actually Dinare, the above goes for you as well. Walk me through what you do if Otolio claims VT. Walk me through the logic of how this gambit (?) works.

Otolio, if you're at L1 then what is the town thing to do? I'm not advocating you claim as I would actually ask players to question\interrogate me and other players and make max use of day and if they still felt like it and I couldn't find an actual scum target to try to lynch then I would claim though. Also, since you are at L1 provide a reads list on all the players in the game so far, please?

Also someone mentioned mass claims, is that a serious suggestion?

Why would you put people at L-1 you DON'T find scummy? Why would we popcorn off of a D1 VT claim? Why would you be scared of power-hammer players as a voter but as an L-1 player not claim and just question other players? Christ I want to see it as a scumtell but it's just damn batty it's probably just null.

Also we're not massclaiming D1 because that's like one of the simplest metrics to test a setups balance and I have faith in Equinox.

Kop:

I was the one who conjured the Otolia wagon into being, and now I'm voting you. How does that make you feel? Who should I vote for?

[hitogoroshi]

I'm actually liking Elusive for town. Even though I didn't like the RQS questions, but her follow up and approach to sorting out players seems to be coming from a town-mindset.

I was really hoping that I could see more content out of players like Guyinfreezer, but the V/LA status puts a bit of a hinder on that because I can't pressure him 'til he's actually able to be in the thread and catch up. That's mainly the major one person right now that I have no read on.

This is usually a scum tell in my book, but I don't remember one of ChaosOmega's posts at this point. I'm still liking KoP for scum.

I could actually see PB/Skoat being town so I'm not as interested in voting that slot as I was before. I just think PB has a different approach to mafia than others and tends to be lynch-bait, but with my experience with playing with him. Skoat tends to coast/lurk as scum and I'm not really seeing that. I just don't agree/understand some of the approaches he's made to the game right now.

So currently I'm going to
UNVOTE: PB
VOTE: KoP

UT is pretty meh, along with Quil. The back and forth that they had earlier pages made zero sense to me and made my head hurt.

Cheetory I actually liked at a glance, however, I'm not sure it's because he's pushing whom I think is my top scumread and is seeing what I'm seeing. Also the fact he's trying to engage KoP and get him into the game feels town to me.

The one thing about Oto's defense is the fact he linked a scum game where he was majorly against claiming at L-1 and against massclaim as town. I'm not sure why at scum he would link that knowing that this game is similar to his scum game. I guess it might be his standards, but it feels off for scum-him to not try say that town-him is against claiming D1. Maybe it's just the angle doesn't make sense, but I'm less likely to see that coming from town, but this is a note for me later on in-case.

I'll try to sort out my thoughts on Dinare and Hito though.

quoting this whole post because it's pinging my lizard brain a bit. I think it's maybe the verbosity on the GiF comments combined with the total lack of justification on the kop vote. Especially when he's slinging hash at Otolia simultaneously. Of course you have no read on GiF, dude hasn't posted. all those reads posts and nothing on your vote? I don't know. it's just a sketchville post. Really this game has had a lot of sketch stuff, which means a fair chunk at LEAST is coming from town. I kinda like that though actually, having a lot to chew on helps increase transparency. (I am selfish and like being read as town.) it does hurt getting lynch compromises but I suspect I'm going to be ass deep in political capital so nbd

Oh also Oto linking a scum game to show his policy is actually a town tell I think.

[hitogoroshi]

Wrong Song, I am going to read your thoughts on me a minimum of three times when you post them

[hitogoroshi]

If you read my ISO I have pure reasons why I'm voting Kop. So either you're deciding not to read or you just care not to, which is it?

Do you think your ISO gives a complete picture of why you're voting Kop?

Also, now I am going to read your thoughts on me a minimum of four times when you post them

[hitogoroshi]

Town would anyway state "Intent to hammer in {time frame}" so the person at L1 shouldn't claim until that point. What if they are a PR and claiming hurts town or causes them to get NKed?

I don't really like running up players to claim for the sake of it because I've played with that player who will hammer regardless if its the most anti-town thing to do as part of their shtick.

???

I think elusive is just infected with a bad case of road to rome-itis though looking at her response to Dinare just now. which means she'll be pretty hard to read. in fact Dinare also has some of it. belgh. Reck/UT I think this town is gonna need three dads to raise them up right

being scared of "losing the day phase" to an early lynch is pretty silly. refusing to vote your top scummread because you're worried your vote will be TOO IMPACTFUL is very rarely the right move. And it's an easy camoflague for scum to treat their buddies exactly like they treat town - "Well gosh, I think you're scum, but I don't want to vote for you in a way where it might get you lynched! I only want to vote for you under the condition my vote is meaningless and you won't get lynched." I can accept that you learned bad ways from the newbie queue, but we are dancing the warriors dance of true mafia now. If anyone's not voting their top scumread because there are TOO MANY votes on their top scumread, they should vote their top scummread in their next post, at least to L-1. And folks at L-1 should imagine an "intent to hammer" hanging over their head and play their little hearts out.

thinking that a lynch would end the day "too early" means that we're in an extended RVS until we decide it's "late enough" that it's okay to lynch someone. I will not be havin' it

[hitogoroshi]

Hito, you seem to be missing a point - why would I vote someone who I wasn't scum reading? Or I feel like you're focusing on minutiae and hypotheticals with me which is frankly not needed.

The problem is when you don't vote someone you are scum reading because you're worried about ending the day too early.

I would say that... based on the games I actually won my Paragon of Mafia Hunters scummy for... lightning fast lynches can be an incredibly powerful tool.

Yup I think fast wagons are actually slightly more likely to be town driven than otherwise.

Ot's reads actually are pretty milquetoast. At least it's better than his over self-focus from before but they're really less reads and more summaries.

What are everybodies thoughts on ChaosOmega? The only post I recall was his vote, I feel that it's scummy in the manner he did it in.

So what happened to your Otolia scum read?

Wrong Song

, you should go into detail on your Kop to ChaosOmega switch. Because I really don't like that you responded like this when I asked you about your kop read:

If you read my ISO I have pure reasons why I'm voting Kop. So either you're deciding not to read or you just care not to, which is it?

Well, I didn't like it at the time because you totally missed the point that it wasn't about your reasons existing

at all

, it was that you didn't put any effort into pushing Kops wagon more but took time to sling some hash at lurkers. And now I extra don't like it because it seems weird to have a vehemence of "Just read my ISO, I have PURE REASONS" and yet you'll switch based on a snarky comment from ChaosOmega. Seems like misaligned passion levels. So let's talk it out. And I'm still eagerly waitin for those thoughts on me.

[hitogoroshi]

sling some hash

Also, is this a real saying? I heard a college kid say it as a negative pejorative and I kinda assumed it's a hip new thing that's all the rage but maybe this one punk was just pulling a FAST ONE

[hitogoroshi]

Also, re: Peacebringer - he just seems totally out there. Hard to read conventionally. I think he would push Otolia this way regardless of alignment, but I at least want to believe it's a bit of a scumtell how he executed it, because it was a huge jump in intensity for someone he was already willing to vote. It makes more sense as scum casting insincere vote -> sincere policy lynch than town casting sincere vote -> sincere policy lynch. I remember I was scum in a Quagmire game where he did the Quagmire thing (I think it may have been the very last one, actually) and I rode the HELL out of that policy lynch precisely because I knew I would have done it as town.

But that whole "I would have done it as town" makes it tricky to be sure on this. Peacebringer would be a pretty good vig.

[hitogoroshi]

I want to believe it because it's a cool catch and I'd love for it to be a knockout punch. Your general demeanor makes me think it's not a knockout punch, but it still seems significant to me.

Why would I go back to your games? Like I said, I do think you'd pursue this policy regardless of alignment. That's not what I'm contesting. What I'm saying is that the pattern doesn't seem consistent with you reading scum on Otolia before. When my scumreads do things I think are scum-incidative to the point of wanting to policy lynch them, I say "Hey look at this scumbag playin more scum stuff" and not "My scum lynch is now a policy lynch". It seems to make a lot more sense that you had a fake scum read and were happy to upgrade it to this real policy crusade. Especially because, assuming you're scum and Otolia is town, you know he's flipping town at the end and would love to have an alignment-irrelevant reason you're voting for him. Whereas as town you'd love for him to flip scum and confirm that crafty scumbags are trying to pull these gambits.

[hitogoroshi]

I mean, look at this:

So you were willing to take Oto to L-1, and you have no idea why the hell I'd unvote Otolia, but you're going for an alignment-null policy reason to vote Otolia? That's interesting.

And UT isn't misrepping, he was referring to MY vote on Kop.

I don't like the manipulative I won't f-ing claim on day one bullshit. Everyone gets run up day one soon or later. Folks playing that game is just BS manipulative crap. It is antitown and antigame and it pisses me off. The game is all about running someone up, getting a claim and evaluate. All anyone has on day one is will speculation... to claim otherwise is bullshit. And I hate refusals to claim and will not budge if someone is pulling that shit.

This just doesn't seem like what you post about someone you were previously reading as scum, y'know?

[hitogoroshi]

@Hito: Since you mention road to rome-itis, it seems some information on my experience there is in order, since most of this can't even be looked up. My first game I replaced into a town slot, so combine the confusion of playing mafia, replacing into a slot that was not doing so well to begin with, and the IC replaced out. Town lost and I didn't exactly learn a whole lot from that one unfortunately. My second game I started from the beginning(to avoid some of the confusion from the first game), However, this time I was mafia, and my partner(an SE) spent just about the entire either lurking, prod-dodging, or on V/LA. I decided to keep the IC in the game instead of NKing him in an effort to try and learn more before I left Road to Rome, however, the game was scrubbed when me, the IC, and a confirmed newbie townie where in a 3-way lylo. And the IC never got the chance to do the whole post game analysis of everyone's play. I then didn't play for almost two years(I didn't see the point after all record of my being here was lost). When I came back, it was after the limit of newbie games that one could play was reduced to 2 instead of 3. After explaining my situation though, I was allowed one more newbie game. This time I was scum again, but my partner was the IC. His advice was more geared toward a scum mindset, not a whole lot he could do about teaching me how to scumhunt since I kinda was more focused on survival.

Hopefully that gives you some insight into something. Since I didn't really have an IC as town, I might as well ask you this(I get the sense you're fairly experienced, so you've probably ICed before). Assuming I accept this next quote at face value, (You, Reckoner, and Otolia have said the same thing, so I suspect this goes beyond people's alignment in this game).

thinking that a lynch would end the day "too early" means that we're in an extended RVS until we decide it's "late enough" that it's okay to lynch someone. I will not be havin' it

What is done when somebody appears to derphammer the lynch that ended the day early, and that the lynchee was town? It seems that scum could get some mislynches in by going "oops, was that the hammer?." But it also seems that there is also some risk of the derphammer being a townie actually not paying attention and doing just that(derphammering). In both cases, is there not a large risk of either letting scum get away with securing a mislynch, or mislynching 2 townies if you take the situation as the opposite of what it really is?

Of course, people when given responsibility could end up being irresponsible town. That's always problematic and annoying. But the only way to prevent that it is to create a climate where

no one is highly responsible for their actions

, which is a terrific climate for scum. Talk is cheap; actions aren't. You want a culture of accountability; people need to have the freedom to cast L-1 votes and hammer votes early if they think it's the right move. Because otherwise, you have this awful situation where scum can say "Gee I like [big wagon] but I can't vote it", which is bad regardless of the alignment of big wagon.

It's also very relevant that some of the most important times to catch scum are during situations of high volatility. Remember, town is by definition emotionally self-consistent, and town (aside from masons or w/e) don't need to vet their actions with a town buddy. So forcing quick decisions is when town and scum play differs widest. Scum like slow and predictable. Don't give it to them. Which is not to say that you should lie about your beliefs to be hard to read or anything silly like that. But momentum out of nowhere is generally good for town, regardless of the alignments involved. Think about it:

wagon on town, flash change to wagon on town - scum don't care, townies presumably care a lot to create the momentum. Decently large play gap.
wagon on town, flash change to wagon on scum - obviously great for town. It's super risky for scum to drive a bus on their own like this, so often times there's a close-to-conf. town or two that come out of this. There are also some really neat ways to catch scum relating to wagon interactions in this situation, which I obviously won't really go in to here.
wagon on scum, flash change to wagon on town - this seems like the big bust of the situation. But even these wagons can give a lot of information. Remember, scum know that this is gonna be a cold ice bath of truth at the end, AND that a failed flash wagon costs a lot more lynch capital than a normal failed wagon. These facts often makes these wagons info dense.
wagon on scum, flash change to wagon on scum - >:3

okay that was less about early L-1s and hammers I got distracted by my love of flash wagons. but you can extrapolate the same points. Making people commit to stuff quickly is good, creating an environment where we forbid commit if it would be too impactful is awful, because impactful commitment is precisely the most important kind of commitment!

Also this:

Assuming I accept this next quote at face value, (You, Reckoner, and Otolia have said the same thing, so I suspect this goes beyond people's alignment in this game).

pretty decent town tell imo

[hitogoroshi]

Kop, what's your read on Otolia? How has that read progressed through the game?

[hitogoroshi]

It's pretty weird that you read my posts enough to agree with Otolia calling me the only town read but then no mention how my thoughts on PeaceBringer totally diverge from yours.

[hitogoroshi]

Stabulous/Otolia, Kop, Wrong Song all good and fine places to vote. I have a pending question out to each of them and can rank them after those answers I think. My gut is telling me Wrong Song will be the best lynch today but let's see what falls out of the trees I'm shakin'.

Or if you're feeling like a policy-ish lynch, PeaceBringer isn't bad, but I don't think he's as likely scum as the top three. Still I mean, anyone can get a scum PM.

[hitogoroshi]

I didn't think your thoughts on PeaceBringer were different than mine at all.

Lets put it this way. What do you suppose PB-town's behavior is here?

Can you explain how this train of thought lead you to speculate that PB is vig? I don't follow.

Not that he IS vig; that he's a good vig target.

VOTE: ChaosOmega

Was going to vote for Kop but then his latest post made me think otherwise.

Please talk to me, I find myself glazing over reading over the previous pages. I know I've missed some questions so just quote them at me whenever you feel like it

This is a lazy cop-out; why do we have to drag your reads and reasoning out of you?

But whatever. Wrong Song read. Go.

Vote Count 1.16

ChaosOmega (4) - Kop, Wrong Song, xRECKONERx, Quilford

Hey Reck look at who you're sharing this CO wagon with

I wanted to wait for Wrong Song to answer me before thinking of vote swappin' because I think the answer would be a bit more useful if I wasn't voting him, but my heart is telling me Wrong Song and I'm pretty sick of waiting to be honest

Unvote, Vote: Wrong Song

[hitogoroshi]

Why is everyone prod dodging and doin dick bupkis all of a sudden.

Let's wagon Wrong Song nerds

Also like yo I don't have a Chaos townread or nothin but he's up to L-2 buoyed on the back of a bunch of hamster fart votes and I don't like it. If we're gonna lynch CO today I wanna see some fucking CONVICTION

[hitogoroshi]

Of course not. Why on earth would you take the exposure to lynch someone who's had zero game impact for basically the entire day? Are you earnestly saying you would expect two scum to quick L-1 and quickhammer on day one??

If CO's town, either they can't vote CO because they're on his wagon or they're just waiting for deadline when they can roll their eyes and say "I'm doin a deadline lynch".

That's where the inertia is going, which is enough reason for me to dislike the wagon even though I have no real read on CO.

[hitogoroshi]

Now stab can you recind the "won't claim" day 1 so I can move on as clearly the decision has been made to go elsewhere...

I'm actually pretty okay with a PeaceBringer lynch after this post.

Still want Wrong Song the most.

kop/Chaos, I think we should just agree you're both pretty and move on. You can try to lynch each other tomorrow, but currently the lazy intertia votes are clustered on you two and it's not worth much. No one has voted for either of you after your duel in thread, so it's not like you're being sheeped on those reasons. I don't think we want a lazy deadline flump. Both because a.) the flumpee is a lot more likely to be town in this scenario and b.) no matter the flip, we don't get much out of it.

Let's wagon-ban Kop and Chaos today so the enormous lazy lump contingent has to put down fresh votes today. We can always restart the wagons tomorrow when people have to re-justify their votes. We have a window now for wagon flexibility but by tomorrow if we're sitting here we're strapped on the U.S.S Lynch That Actually Only One Player Has Expressed Any Conviction For, and that's just not my scene.

[hitogoroshi]

For what it's worth if we DO have CO vs kop I slightly prefer lynching kop, but I think Wrong Song, PeaceBringer, Stabulous/Otolia are better lynches (in that descending order).

And actually elusive's last post was pretty awful as well.

Kop Vs. ChaosOmega actually makes me lean scum on Otolio.

Cheetory6, did you just grey out your avatar or something? Also, I want you and xreckoner dead. Like asap.

Looking at the wagons, is it two town? One scum and one town counterwagon?

What about all the other votes?

If I had to choose between ChaosOmega and Kop, I'd vote Chaos because he has more limited interactions overall it feels like.

Kop and Chaos can you both do reads list? Where you stand on the players so far?

Also, is Quilford notoriously lurky or is this a this game thing? Because whether its the former or the latter, that's going to be a problem.

Wants Cheetory6/Reck dead asap, still voting PeaceBringer. Throwing shade on Quilford for later (yes obviously he needs to replace or stop lurking, but this is a gross way to set it up). And "looking at wagons, is it two town? One scum and one town counterwagon." Well gee I dunno you said CO vs kop changed your Otolia/Stab read for some reason, so why don't you tell me YOUR thoughts?

In fact going through the ISO I'm really uneasy on elusive, maybe I even rank her third for lynching after Wrong Song / PeaceBringer.

Let's lynch in {Wrong Song, PeaceBringer, elusive, Stabulous/Otolia} today.

[hitogoroshi]

to be clear Quilford is very probably scum as well but not the kind of scum that's good to lynch today. He's the new best vig shot instead of PB

Both Quilford and GiF need to be resolved, Quilford more than GiF. But it'd be better to try to do it with power than lynches I think. Scum basically have to kill me anyway so I trust you nerds can get it done, and if not I guess pressuring and lynches on those fools are maybe okay tomorrow. No burning today's lynch on them though

[hitogoroshi]

I mean, that's actually part of the problem? He has 4x the posts but still has done basically one game-relevant post in the last week. He just spends his time continually talking about not being around which is time he could have left a 15 second impression or something.

And GiF's one post was at least "I will blindly sheep hito because I'm not around", which is bad but not terrible as a stopgap. Whereas Quilford's one post was THIS:

VOTE: ChaosOmega

Was going to vote for Kop but then his latest post made me think otherwise.

Please talk to me, I find myself glazing over reading over the previous pages. I know I've missed some questions so just quote them at me whenever you feel like it

He was going to vote Kop, but Kops latest point changed his view SO MUCH that he's instead voting Kop's nemesis, I-highly-doubt-coincidentally the biggest wagon? What caused that switch? Why vote CO? Who knows, because Quilford didn't give those reasons, just a thing saying "Also me not engaging with the game is a problem YOU need to fix".

I'm sure both GiF and Quilford do have real things going on in their lives but Quilford's method of handling it is worse than GiFs.

Also, Reck (and a bunch of others but especially you), your next post should be voting in my list or pushing back on why you think it's a bad idea.

[hitogoroshi]

I find it completely absurd that you're pushing Quilford for lurking when he's inactive due to RL things. Like, really? Are we playing Baby's First Mafia Game?

Umm, I'm not? I'm explicitly against Quilford/GiF lynches today.

I'm saying they're good targets for night power because they're lurking. And I think Quilford is a better target than GiF. It's not really a push to simply rank which of the two lurkers I'd prefer night power to be used on.

I also don't quite understand Peacebringer being in that list. not 100%

My ISO has a lot about this, but the abridged version is - in general, just kind of out there and hard to read properly. Even though there are mitigating factors I still think his increase in vehemence when he transitioned to his policy case on Otolia indicates that his previous scumread was insincere. So for a while I had him in "Not sure, but decent policy target". But I really don't like him saying "Stabulous, can you retract the claim that you won't claim if at L-1", for quite a few reasons. First off, he's been told to claim if I'm the hammer keeper and ask him to; also, he's not in danger of lynch today anyway. In general it sounds like he's really trying to have an objective flow to his vote - "Oh gosh, you know my policy, I can't move my vote until it's officially retracted". This is something scum love to do and even though I think his policy crusade is sincere, DEMANDING an "official" retraction from a dude with only your vote on him before you move it seems a lot more likely to be coming from scum.

I'm not trying to narrow the lynch pool because I'm the King of Reads. I'm just trying to actually get people to engage with their votes so we get a lynch with some meat to it instead of "I voted ChaosOmega and lurked for a week" or "I voted kop and lurked for a week".

[hitogoroshi]

As for the is it two town or one scum or one town, I'm not sure. The Oracle has not spoken to me as of yet. Also. some wandering thoughts or inferences I keep close to the chest.

When I first saw Dinare run up Otolio and demand a claim so early in the day, I thought it was either a gambit or a scum attempt to get a player who sounded a little weird maybe because of language or something. Kop then seemed a little more opportunistic to jump on the wagon with the semantics case. When Chaos though tried to dismantle Kop's case he kind of failed. Semantics slips is a real thing in mafia and Otolio's statement of "if" rather then "when" does sound discordant even with the language issue.

Therefore, based on the Kop and Chaos interactions I wonder why Chaos felt the need to attack Kop's case on Otolio's wagon when they are both basically almost head to head in terms of being wagoned. Is it possible that both are town? Is Otolio town with Chaos being the scummy one or what? Why is Chaos attacking Kop's case on Otolio, rather then give reads\thoughts to the game and make his own space\voice?

Unfortunately, I don't have the answers and the magic 8 ball keeps changing its mind.

See, I totally agree re: not having the answers, I think it'd be pretty strange to start making these big calls with no flips. But then how did that make you lean scum on Otolia?

I'm actually pretty okay with a PeaceBringer lynch after this post.

really, what about that post that made you all warm and fuzzy over the prospect of my removal from the game. YOu have been pretty okay the whole time, so stop pretending otherwise. Really kinda dodgy engagement here.

Yeah that's fair, I've been okay with compromising on your lynch for policy the whole game, but it's only recently I've been gettin confident in the scum-motivated things I see as well. I think you're a lot harder to read than conventional players and won't really flow well with the town at large (which is why I've always been willing to compromise), but even with a legitimate policy grievance, I think you've been executing it in a scum motivated way.

Wrong Song's catchup is I dunno. Doubling up on "what Hito's voting me for can be applied to half this game" is a scumtell of some repute, but Wrong Song 464 is actually a good vibes post.

Hey Wrong Song, PeaceBringer, what's my alignment? Y'all have both been throwin comments at me that don't actually speak to my alignment - "Hito's vote can be applied to half the game", "Hito is serving as your mouthpiece", etc.

[hitogoroshi]

I've skimmed to catch up but maybe missed stuff. I have like three minutes to make a post so here are some unjustified thoughts.

Wagon banning CO and kop did exactly what I wanted it to in terms of engagement. I think CO came off better than kop for it. In fact I'd even be willing to rescind the wagon ban on Kop at this point if people really want that.

I kind of like Wrong Song's recent shit actually, aside from the CO vote which is really strange.

elusive going for GiF here is truly gross.

have to jet, those are some thoughts. I should be around lunchtime to cast a hammer vote or whatever.

[hitogoroshi]

hito, who would you rather lynch out of PB/elusive?

ooh this is a good question. I think elusive actually is putting me off more with recent posts but PB is more realistic. PB has the vanilla claim also, which makes him a bit safer I guess.

yah I want elusive, PB is more consolation prize flavored.

unvote, vote: elusive

break is over but I have more time in an hour and a half

Hito also doesn't put his vote quite where his mouth is, if he thought it was scummy I assume he would.

are you trying to cast aspersions w/o calling me scum by saying that I logically should be voting a lurker because I like when people post

.-.

ALSO: this is not worth pursuing at all today but in case I die, I think the quil/reck interactions are really bizarre and if one flips scum you should look super hard at the other.

[hitogoroshi]

yeah elusive wagon rules, I would also go back to kop in a hot second

PB is a distant third I think

CO is pretty gosh darn town

I have an all-day work class and will be pretty zonked tonight, so don't expect much outta here. but I WILL do occasional checkins for deadline mobiltiy and you can hold me to the fire if I don't. it just might be a mobile post without justification.

some stray reads for easy post-morterm consumption:

CO has pretty much rocketed right the heck up to strongest town read but I think everyone will agree with that.
Dinare is pretty town as well
Reck is mostly town but if you read his ISO, reck <--> Quilford is real strange and if role power catches out quilford give reck real hard looks

I have mostly meritless gut town reads on UT and GiF (yes I meant to type GiF there!) don't ascribe much to them but there they are.

elusive and kop gotta go. PB I keep wavering between scum and null, I think ultimately though he's just a big ol' question mark whose votes will never be traditionally accountable, and that's not really something end-game worthy? blah.

just as I have a "lurker, but gut town feels" read on GiF, I have "lurker, but gut scum feels" read on Quilford.

who the heck is left? Cheetory started town and I guess is still kinda town, probably above reck actually now that I think it, but damn the dude falls out of your brain. oto/stab is complicated but I think how they approach D2 ought to shed a lot of light. if that's not everyone whatever, there's the brain dump!

[hitogoroshi]

I'll be here for deadline.

Hitos vote seems really odd,he isn't reading and isn't explaining. He can't explain any scum motivations for any of my posts but has been trying to FOS me for pointing out lurkers as bad for town since game began.

Wrong song, I should be here around deadline.

Lynching me or votes on me is pathetic play and the reasoning is either non existent or guess what non existent, fucking learn how to play mafia before joining a game and bringing down the collective intellectual level of town.

Town won't vote me because no case no reasons. Everyone else either shitty town or obvscum.

VOTE: ChaosOmega

Bring it. You can't explain your vote and provide reasoning for your switch from putting me as town to the huge swerve to scum.

Hey are to going to try to even make a case by putting something together for your fake read that did a 360 or are you just going to hide behind Hito and his subpar vocabulary skills?

Oh wait I remember when people used gross to describe something, it was third grade. What next do i have to hear? Cooties?

I am sorry that your cooties are making you so mad

hey elusive I have a bad vocabulary and do odd votes but what's my alignment

[hitogoroshi]

;-; you forgot me

wow that's hilarious I super wanted you dead like what, two days ago

uhh I don't know your old stuff was terrible and your new stuff is pretty good so I wanna hang the heck out and see what kind of stuff you do next

also you should recompile your elusive/CO reads and post 'em up, I think new developments have made them kinda inconsistent

[hitogoroshi]

but damn the dude falls out of your brain.

I swear people are saying shit like this just to bug me q.q

@hito, what exactly is it that you're liking about the elusivewagon? Is it mostly just like a tone/gutwagon or what? Pitch it to me/talk with me about Kop or something.

cheetory: elusive case, well tone is a big part of it yeah. super artifical, makes no sense to go for CO and snipe at my credibility but stay mum on my alignment. sneer-tell, "come back with a better case", historically it's had a decent track record. from elusives POV really I should be scum, but she's totally reticent on that score, y'know? more concerned with the fact that CO has the wagon and isn't super universally townread like I am, then trying to suss alignments, feels like. also look at this thing:

I'm not scum so that's a wasted vote. What's disgusting is that Guy hasn't replaced out and has contributed nothing with Quil only being close behind in lack of content. Hito also doesn't put his vote quite where his mouth is, if he thought it was scummy I assume he would. Also guess what I'm never an easy lynch and as town I do scorched earth so if you're trying to set me up be ready for the heat.

only townies can waste votes, not your scumspects. then basically says we're not allowed to suspect people who aren't the lurkers who haven't posted?? and then calls me out for not voting lurkers. y'know? Like the tone is overwhelmingly "You have no case and are not PERMITTED to suspect me", not "I am town and you should see that"

as for CO townread, dudes been on point, good balance of owning his reads vs. willing to compromise, etc.

breaks over!

I'm okay with kop too, just like elusive more.

[hitogoroshi]

My wagon shouldn't happen, it's based on nothing and Hito conveniently doesn't have time to post a case or explain scum motivation.

hey elusive

what's my alignment

[hitogoroshi]

Skimmed the new stuff, haven't been able to totally dig.

Peacebringer

, why on earth does cheetory/elusive being a seeming town on town make you unvote *kop* and take Chaos to L-1? That seems like precisely the situation to push a kop wagon.

as for cheetory vs elusive - well cheetory is pretty obvtownie. elusive is still doing the same scumtell of focusing way more on arguments than alignments. She frequently alludes to Cheetory as doing "faux theatrics" and similar, but with very little followthrough on trying to figure out his alignment. Like she did with me, throwing a ton of venom but the read of "well gosh you could be scum or dumb town". Those would be two pretty different game states! CO-scum doesn't sheep hito-scum on elusive here, for one thing, y'know? And from what she's said, I think I should be more likely scum than CO from elusives perspective. Or reck! elusive loves pushing lurkers, why not vote the lurker voting for her? It really feels like elusive is just yelling at everyone voting for her and trying to lynch the easiest one to lynch (CO). I'm in full hito mode and have like zero chance of a mislynch; I definitely feel like elusive's read of me is cursory because of that. if that makes sense. most of my dislike of elusive stems from an over-focus on "good" vs "bad" cases and not "what role pm does that person have".

THAT BEING SAID. out of game stuff is always annoying and tunes out scumdars, and in those situations I like to step back a bit and see what happens when the person involved re-normalizes. even though I think elusive has been playing pretty scum motivated, after a big old throwdown like that, it throws a bunch of noise in trying to interpret her latest stuff.

anyway. CO claimed confirmable so his wagon is off the table today. let's just lynch kop.

Unvote, Vote: kop

wheeee

[hitogoroshi]

hey elusive, please give your top two guesses for scumteams. I know it's hard to call a whole team, but just try your best. #1 and #2 can be totally independent, just need to make holistic sense as a 3-person.

[hitogoroshi]

Kop was cheetor's push... there is nothing about that drama behind push. I could have sat and parked and saw what happened but, hey a suspect was at claim point. At no point did I clear Chaos...

Wait, so you pushed Chaos literally just because you could make him claim? Going on the gamestate at the time (i.e pre-claim), how would you rate kop vs. CO for scuminess?

his claim is absolute shit... you are comfortable Hito with the claim of Chaos, Really? You think that is a pro-town claim? If so I will have to remember that, just claim I am pro-town and I do something and I won't say what...

It's D1. Obviously this kind of claim doesn't fly past in LYLO or LYLO - 1. But when someone claims confirmable D1 they're sort of nailing their foot to the floor as scum. Obviously if CO comes empty-handed D3 it's pretty darn suspicious! But having one non-vanilla claim in the night mix actually does some pretty healthy things for the nightgame. Let's not talk about it anymore!

given that the suspects who ran up elusive are now on Kop after avoiding it previously, eh, not as comfy with it...

Why does that make you uncomfortable?

We weren't avoiding kop previously because we had love of kop in our hearts. The wagon just defused because I wagon-banned kop vs. CO, since it had gotten extremely calcified and a lynch wouldn't tell us much regardless of who was lynched or what they flipped. Which actually turned out excellent and got us a ton of good stuff. Now, with how things have flowed, I want kop again.

Also, CO certainly didn't avoid kop previously. So you're essentially saying "Kop was my biggest suspect, but hito and/or reckoner voting for kop makes me not want to vote kop." Which is implictly claiming at least one of us is scum. Which one? Or both?

Regardless, CO wagon is off the table, so if you don't want kop, let's hear your alternative...

[hitogoroshi]

you and reck are sure buddy buddy so we is probably the right pronoun there... and you are full of crap on it being Kop vs CO. It was me vs CO and then I moved to KOP based on Cheet logic whereby putting me at the lead. We then go from nearly lynching me and poking around more. So then you, reck, and CO go and vote elusive for shit reasoning... then CO gets run up and makes the worse claim ever. Don't give me the bull that he is "nailed" down. It is crapy anti-town claim. Reck told me specifically that I was dead wrong, and now suddenly oh, it is right. Something stinks here. And yes, you and reck can sure as hell be scum together and one can be scum and buddying up, WTF would I know? But this play is super dodgy...

In what insane universe does a CO/hito/reck scumteam go for elusive and not kop or you?

Also if our reason on elusive was shit, why not call out the elusive wagon earlier instead of only now after I've decided to try an audible elsewhere?

Re: being nailed down...you should think about what kinds of PRs are confirmable. then you should stop voting CO. "my role is confirmable" is a big claim when you actually think about it.

really in generally you're way too obsessed with claims/evaluating power. focus on intent. Equinox is not going to make one of the crappy massclaim-suspectible setups that maybe you're used to from the old days. If CO fullclaims we sit exactly in the same place for how much we can trust it - scum with an unverifiable role would have just said "x-shot PR" and not added the bit about being confirmable. If CO is town, all it does is gives scum more information without helping town. If CO is scum, his claim is a desperate stall that we'd catch the same ways regardless of whether or not we have all the details.

The only possible way a fullclaim from CO helps town is if he happens to claim a role that another town member has AND that would be broken in multiples. Think about what roles are confirmable and you'll pretty quickly catch why this isn't worth it. Especially since this necessitates the counter claim in the first place.

[hitogoroshi]

there are no third parties

Players are divided into two factions: innocents, who are natives and immigrants of Arstotzka, and insurgents, members of the Order of the EZIC Star who are interested in overthrowing the Arstotzkan government.

I think Stab's final reads being elusive and CO reek of convienence and those are in general pretty strange reads to have side by side. I highly dislike Oto returng, apparently having read enough to be okay with a CO lynch despite claim, but not at all engaging with his/stab's top town read (me!) who wagon banned CO. I don't expect people to be 100% caught up instantly, but it's quite strange to be caught up enough precisely enough to be okay with the biggest wagon on a claimed PR but not so much that you talk to your top town read, talk about the opposing wagon, etc.

If kop flips scum today we 100% go after Otolia tomorrow. If kop flips town Otolia's stuff is still skeevy but not as bad.

elusive, who do you think the scum are right now?

[hitogoroshi]

I think Kop is toewn from that last post. Is there no chance of a last minute wagon on someone?

Nope! To be perfectly honest even a kop townflip would be better than us randomly rolling the dice on some lurker in the 11th hour.

=====[]

[]=====

On a kop scumflip bring serious pressure to Otolia, he is giving severe kops-buddy vibes. Want to call the third scumbuddy of a kop-otolia team for style but that's harder. Honestly maybe Wrong Song just because Wrong Song 749

Well considering it's about less than a day to the deadline I'm trying to either get her from stop fence sitting or put her money where her mouth is. She keeps saying she doesn't want to vote CO based on the claim. Her comments about "Kop where are you" sounds like she's fence sitting the fuck out of the wagon, not to mention she hasn't touched KoP all game.

She's playing weird right now and I'm trying to figure out why.

Does seem a lot like he's resigned to the bus and just trying to get me on elusive tomorrow after a kop scumflip. This seems a bit confident about kop's scumflip when the rest of his posts don't.

Not gonna try to call a team on a kop townfip. I bet if that happens scum leave me alive though, whee!

[hitogoroshi]

oh you're right, Equi has the right names but wrong number

we need TWO votes on kop

[hitogoroshi]

you're already voting kop. ahead of the curve!