Open 596: Mega PopCorn Mafia - Over

[VictorDeAngelo]

@Mod

- I'll be vla until further notice. If it's more than a few days feel free to replace me.

[RedCoyote]

You aren't even going to give vonflare a cursory answer before taking off? The deed is done, after all.

[Flubbernugget]

He's conftown why does it matter

[RedCoyote]

Because if pablito is town (which I think he is), Victor is dead and I would appreciate hearing a dead confirmed townie's insight into the game.

[RedCoyote]

Especially given the man has said next to nothing about his own personal reads to begin with.

[Flubbernugget]

Well he just shot pablito of all people so I don't see the huge issue here

[RedCoyote]

Touche.

[pablito]

Victor. I don't get you.

[Flubbernugget]

Maybe vic crumbled under pressure and wanted the gun in good hands?

[ArcAngel9]

pabilto

is a

Townie

.

VictorDeAngelo

dies for shooting a

Townie

.

VictorDeAngelo

,

gun-bearer

, shot himself on Day2

Welcome to Day3

Gun-Bearers:

MOD ANNOUNCEMENT

pabilto

is the

GUNBEARER

, and he/she is the

town

.

[Heartless]

Maybe vic crumbled under pressure and wanted the gun in good hands?

do you agree with pablito about... anything?

[Heartless]

Strongest town reads right now: Heartless, CB, RC, Feirei, wanderer
Strongest scum reads right now: Lucky, Maxwell, PN
Reads conditional upon seeing others flip: West9, Flubbernugget
People I don't want shot because it will torture them and maybe they will participate at some point in time: Lucky, millar, enomis, jeanne, Feirei
People I would like to see shot the most: vonflare, julien

PN/Heartless/Red/Wanderer(?)/Julien(???)

My list to shoot

like... 3/5 people in your shoot list, he has as strong town reads

[Heartless]

I'd kind of like a reminder of why most of the game is currently fellating CB. The theorycrafting parts of his posts are really well written and ring all the right bells but when you dig into the meat of the reads, you see a lot of cookie-cutter stuff and not much outside-the-box thinking. Post 337 and Post 592 are perfect examples of what I'm talking about.

i guess he's not the super-de-dooper town wizard that everyone's making him out to be, but his mindset is more likely from town (the whole poe thing) than not

[MaxwellPuckett]

That shot came out of nowhere. There were plenty of much more useful flips like... any of them. Besides most of the lurker flips but... well whatever.

Pab now has the gun, which is about the only good thing to come out of this situation. Victor obviously thought he wouldn't die, though, he even told the mod he'd be V/LA for a few days.

[pablito]

First matter of business. Nacho proposed a short list of "do not shoot" people. I want to see those on the list to comment on whether they agree with this plan or not. I also want those not on the list to comment on whether they think following Nacho's idea of a "do not shoot" list.

In the scumlist (bottom 7), I could very possibly see Perpetual Nonsense or millar being town the easiest since the reads there seem based mostly on incomplete information.
The more incomplete townreads are West9 and enomis.

These are the players I would like to see post more.

I'm also claiming intent for the Lucky shot sometime tomorrow. I'm going to mostly be busy this weekend so would rather probably wait the weekend out to give people time to post and react to that, but I also realize people are probably getting pretty impatient and need blood soon, and don't think it's a shot that will kill me so w/e. I'll make a post including where my personal experience is factoring into reads so that you know if I'd like you to give a read or a point more emphasis than you would normally. This readslist has most of my logic in where I'm standing on most of the playerlist, it feels mostly correct although not perfect so while I wouldn't follow it to a T, I would make sure that you really thought long and hard before shooting

wanderer, CB, Heartless, or pablito,

and that vonflare/Victor/julien/Jeanne all die at your earliest convenience.

The only thing that changes about my reads list is probably that lucky is much townier now that I started interacting with him (posting when threatened to be shot could possibly be a scumtell yes, but starting to seem excited and trolling more when threatened to be shot comes from a townier place) so I won't be shooting him.

The shots I feel comfortable taking are:
Julienvonwolfe, Vonflare, Jeanne, Victor

The shots I would take if all of those were dead and wouldn't feel bad about shooting:
Millar, Flubbernugget

People who I wouldn't shoot ever and strongly urge not to shoot ever:

CB, Pablito, Heartless, Wanderer, RedCoyote

(aka if 4 of these players never hold a gun you will win the game)

[pablito]

EBWOP: ...on whether they think following Nacho's idea of a "do not shoot" list is a good idea or not (not the names on the list itself).

This is the week I have entirely off, so expect to see me more than usual.

I have no idea whom I will shoot right now. Sometime after the weekend I will post a shortlist of targets or people I would prefer not to shoot - so that we can focus our efforts a bit better. Those that choose to not comment on the above post may be included on my shooting short list. How people respond to the above post may also influence my short list.

While I have posted a list that Heartless copied, I am not following that during my stint. That was a list I made that I would've followed if I were not the GB. As the GB, my mindset may change. When I was just a regular townie, there were stances that I took that attempted to appeal to the GB.

[Feirei]

who would be on *your* shootlist

[MaxwellPuckett]

I think Pab just said they are not posting their shootlist yet, lol.

Anyways, about Nacho's idea of a Do Not Shoot list... I just think it's a bad idea. Especially one made that early in the game. Nacho made that list with zero flips, so he had the least information out of any GBs. Declaring some people 'town forever' and just leaving it at that is lazy, and disregards later information, or flips, that could come up.

[Feirei]

oh. forgive me. im running off 4 hours of sleep

[millar13]

this game is LOL

[CB]

Townreads are the key to winning this setup so I need to be certain of the player.

I agree with this 100%. How do you feel about Heartless as of late?

Typically the way I read hydras is on how they interact with each. Mafia hydras are more likely to agree with each other since they know everyone's alignment and they both know who they need to push on for mislynches.
While town hydras there will be more conflict on who to push on since it is very rare for two town to have reads that line up.
So they both push on Wanderer. Wanderer comes up with a towny post and then they both back off right away. When one makes a push the other calls that push really well done.

These posts raise alarm bells in my head:

I've

decided to trust Antihero's judgment on wanderer and keep her in the town column

. I'm not happy about it but Antihero was on the right side of our last wedge read similar to this one (Bookitty in DoA) so I'll just keep an eye on it but I won't push it unless I have the confidence to override him on the read.

this post is beautiful
and should be framed and put on an art museum wall.

yeah, tth is hitting the nail on the head and scum don't have a response so they shat their pants and circled the wagons.

Also 25 was an interesting jokey post. I found it fairly convincing it makes me thing they are a strong mafia player. So there is a fear element that I could be manipulated by them here.

With that being said the pushes have felt like they have come from a towny perceptive. I am more nervous of the slot than anything right now.

--------------------------------------------

I think PN has started recently advocating a CB shot because maybe he thinks that will dissuade others from shooting him. However, in my mind, I'd kind of welcome PN attempting to shoot CB because it would remove an anti-town element and put the gun in good hands. That said, I'm happy with the gun in Victor's hands as well.

Are WE the only one who sees this as a scum slip?

Kind of. He understands that town reads are the key to winning the setup but is ok with one being shot. Although this post felt more jokey than serious so I wouldn't take much from it.

-------------------------------------------------

I'd kind of like a reminder of why most of the game is currently fellating CB. The theorycrafting parts of his posts are really well written and ring all the right bells but when you dig into the meat of the reads, you see a lot of cookie-cutter stuff and not much outside-the-box thinking. Post 337 and Post 592 are perfect examples of what I'm talking about.

To be honest I feel most of what I have said could have easily been said by scum so I was surprised when I was getting so heavily town read. If mafia wants to spew me town w/e.

--------------------------------------------------

-I have added Julien. I kind of liked his opening posts but that catch up post 531 was really underwhelming to me. I don't like how he seemed very apathetic towards the game.

I have thought about this and I think I misspoke when I called that post apathetic. It is more of a feeling that he felt the need to appear to be putting out content that I find scummy.

With all due respect, that is bullshit. Is the optimum play now to wait around doing nothing until Victor decides to shoot someone?

No I am not scum reading you for providing content.

I mostly extracted that read out of this statement:

I realise this post is a bit insubstantial but am running out of steam a bit.

I think this sentiment feels out of place in this game. In a game where most people signed up because they thought it would be cool to be the gun bearer and in a game where you can't get mislynched. I don't think town really has much of a fear of appearing scummy. Why were you worried of how your post would be perceived? I don't think town makes an excuse like that.

[CB]

VictorDeAngelo shoots Pablito

First matter of business. Nacho proposed a short list of "do not shoot" people. I want to see those on the list to comment on whether they agree with this plan or not. I also want those not on the list to comment on whether they think following Nacho's idea of a "do not shoot" list.

I have never played with Nacho so I cannot attest to the accuracy of his reads. Is he really that much of a better player that he can determine people's alignments that much better than the other town players in this game even with the help of flips?

[Wanderer-nl]

@Pablito: personally I'm not sure about RC and that's why I want to see an enomis-flip. enomis about RC was 'could be town' so that's sort of keeping it open, while enomis has a townread on me which he STILL didn't explain. You don't just go from 'I don't feel like discussing this right now' to townreading someone. Something must have happened. And enomis should be able what exactly it was that made him change his mind on me because he was perfectly able to post a scumread on me. Just sheeping Nacho isn't gonna cut it for me. At least something Nacho said could be enough, just point it out.

I have no idea why Victor chose Pablito. I remember some questions raised regarding Pablito but mostly he's looked towny.
I have never played with Nacho, but the way he posted made me think he was very able. He asked good questions and considered all viewpoints. In the end he went with the shot that would give us the most info, as opposed to a target he felt was most scummy. And in return we barely looked back on any reads on Victor but kept pressing our day1 cases. Yes, me too. I'm tired now, just got home from a party where bbq and alcohol were involved, but I'll look into this shit when I'm sober and have time.

[Heartless]

Typically the way I read hydras is on how they interact with each. Mafia hydras are more likely to agree with each other since they know everyone's alignment and they both know who they need to push on for mislynches.
While town hydras there will be more conflict on who to push on since it is very rare for two town to have reads that line up.

So they both push on Wanderer. Wanderer comes up with a towny post and then they both back off right away. When one makes a push the other calls that push really well done.

fact check: they did not both push wanderer.
(as an aside: part of having good chemistry in a hydra is knowing when to trust each other)

[Wanderer-nl]

I think Pab just said they are not posting their shootlist yet, lol.

Anyways, about Nacho's idea of a Do Not Shoot list... I just think it's a bad idea. Especially one made that early in the game. Nacho made that list with zero flips, so he had the least information out of any GBs. Declaring some people 'town forever' and just leaving it at that is lazy, and disregards later information, or flips, that could come up.

So what are your thoughts right now? You must not agree with those reads to be willing to whipe them off the table like that.